CN112529458A - Closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk - Google Patents
Closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a closed-loop control method for the performance risk of an electric power market, which comprises the basic requirements of definite management content, management objects and market membership; establishing a performance risk assessment model by combining a market settlement mechanism; clear the performance guarantee management of the electricity selling company; establishing a credit early warning management mechanism according to the change of the credit limit of the electricity selling company; stipulating a default disposal method of an electricity selling company; and verifying the effectiveness of the method according to the example result. The closed-loop control method for the electric power market performance risk can effectively integrate trading, settlement performance risk and performance guarantee, simplify the control flow, facilitate the market main body to participate in market trading, prevent risks outside a quantitative model and reduce risk exposure.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a closed-loop control method for performing risks in an electric power market, and belongs to the technical field of the electric power market.
Background
The Guangdong is used as a predecessor of an electric power market, and a mature middle-long term transaction variety with two-level connection, intra-field and extra-field complementation, such as bilateral negotiation, centralized bidding, listing transaction, power generation right transfer and the like is established at present. Observation draft is solicited from Guangdong electric power market management implementation rules (credit management part) issued in 2018, and an electric power market performance risk management and control framework is proposed. The fulfillment risk refers to the risk that the market subject does not fulfill the debt due during the market activity. In the solicitation of opinions, dividing the performance risk into a transaction performance risk and a settlement performance risk according to two activities of medium and long term trading and market settlement of a market subject, and carrying out quantitative evaluation on the risks; the market main body must submit the performing insurance bond to cover the risk, the trading center monitors and warns the risk and the insurance bond line, and if necessary, the market main body can implement the mandatory measures of suspending trading qualification, obligating contract disposal, adding performing insurance bond, and the like. The framework defines measures of evaluation, early warning and control of the performance risk, but does not form a complete closed loop, and the management complexity is improved by dividing the performance risk into two types, so that the management and control mode needs to be further optimized, and the market loss is reduced.
Therefore, in order to standardize and clarify the management work of the electric power market performance risk, realize quantitative assessment, early warning and control on the credit and risk of the electric power market, and ensure safe and orderly operation of the electric power spot market, a closed-loop control method applicable to the electric power market performance risk is urgently needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a closed-loop control method for the performance risk of the electric power market, which can effectively integrate trading, settlement of the performance risk and performance guarantee, simplify the control flow, facilitate the participation of market main bodies in market trading, prevent the risk outside a quantitative model and reduce the risk exposure.
The technical scheme for realizing the purpose is as follows: a closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risks comprises the following steps:
s1, defining basic requirements of management content, management objects and market membership;
s2, establishing a performance risk assessment model by combining a market settlement mechanism;
s3, defining the performance guarantee management of the electricity selling company;
s4, establishing a credit early warning management mechanism according to the change of the credit limit of the power selling company;
s5, stipulating a default disposal method of the power selling company;
and S6, verifying the effectiveness of the method according to the calculation result.
In the above closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk, in step S1, the management content includes performance risk assessment, performance guarantee management, centralized competition tradeable electric quantity constraint, credit warning management, default handling and calculation examples;
the current stage of the management object is an electricity selling company;
the market member authority comprises a market main body authority, a power grid enterprise authority and an electric power transaction mechanism authority, wherein the market main body authority comprises whether a power selling company submits a performance guarantee in time according to a performance risk management requirement and whether real credit early warning and performance risk control measures are matched; the power grid enterprise authority comprises the steps of pushing payment and arrearage information of a market main body to an electric power transaction mechanism, using a performance guarantee submitted by the market main body according to related programs and carrying out arrearage tracing on the market main body with a settlement relation; the power transaction authority responsibility comprises organization implementation in charge of performing risk management, drawing up related working systems of performing risk management according to the responsibility, and performing risk assessment, performing guarantee management, credit early warning management and default treatment on market subjects.
The closed-loop management and control method for electric power market performance risk is described above, wherein in step S2, the performance risk is composed of risk of unpaid bills, risk of not paying bills and risk of not delivering contracts, and wherein:
the risk of the unpaid bill refers to the payment which is issued by the electric power transaction mechanism and is not paid by the market main body;
the risk of not paying the bill means that the market main body participates in the transaction and the electric power transaction mechanism does not issue the payment of the settlement basis;
the risk of the undelivered contract refers to the money generated by the market main body because the market main body does not meet the requirement of the credit line, and the electric quantity of the undelivered contract is forcibly disposed.
In the above closed-loop control method for the performance risk of the electric power market, in step S3, the performance guarantee management refers to that the market main body submits a guarantee item to the electric power exchange to ensure that the market main body fulfills the contractual obligation; at present, the form of the performance guaranty received by the electric power transaction institution is mainly a performance bond, and the market body chooses to provide cash guaranty on the principle of voluntary, wherein:
the performance insurance letter refers to a paper or electronic guarantee certificate which is approved by a national institute of banking and industry supervision and management organization to establish and issue a financial license and has corresponding business qualification, and is issued to the power grid enterprise according to the requirements of a market main body by enterprise group financial companies and ensures that the market main body fulfills the market contractual obligation;
the cash guarantee means that the market main body voluntarily submits cash to the electric power transaction mechanism so as to ensure that the market main body fulfills the guarantee form of market contract obligation; the cash guarantee is stored in a bank-dedicated account for management.
In the above closed-loop control method for electric power market performing risk, in step S4, the credit early warning management refers to a mechanism for performing early warning management on credit of an electric power transaction organization, including credit line calculation, credit line requirement, credit occupancy calculation, and credit monitoring early warning, wherein:
the credit line is calculated as the guarantee credit line and the non-guarantee credit line;
the credit limit requirement meets the requirement that the credit limit is greater than or equal to the performance risk;
the credit occupancy rate is the performance risk/credit limit;
the credit monitoring and early warning is that the electric power transaction mechanism monitors the credit line of the market main body based on the credit occupation rate and informs the market main body to meet the requirement of the credit line by a proper means.
The closed-loop control method for the electric power market performance risk is described above, wherein in step S5, the breach treatment refers to a treatment method of the electric power transaction institution for the breach behavior of the power selling company, including a credit breach treatment and an arrearage breach treatment, wherein:
the credit default treatment refers to the treatment of the power selling companies with the default of the credit by the power transaction institution;
the arrearage default treatment refers to the treatment of an electric power selling company with arrearage default by an electric power transaction mechanism.
The aforementioned closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk, wherein the step S6 specifically includes the following steps:
s61, respectively calculating the performance risk, the credit base number and the credit limit under different methods based on the calculation example, and verifying the effectiveness of the method;
s62, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in comparison with two different methods.
The closed-loop control method for the performance risk of the electric power market can effectively integrate trading, settlement of the performance risk and performance guarantee, simplify the control flow, facilitate the participation of market main bodies in market trading, prevent the risk outside a quantitative model and reduce the risk exposure; the concrete expression is as follows:
(1) in the original mode, floating profit and loss of a centralized competitive trading contract are considered for the trade performance risk, monthly settlement cost, daily clearing cost and unremoved electric energy cost are considered for the settlement performance risk, but a complete model is not established for the profit and loss of medium-long term trade, the apportionment of return cost and retail income, and loss possibly caused by contract forced disposal is not covered. The closed-loop control method of the invention considers the full cycle profit and loss of the electricity selling company, including the net profit and loss of participating in medium and long-term markets, spot markets and retail markets and the forced disposal of loss risks, sets risks except a credit base number prevention model, and is more suitable for the market design and the practical operation of the electricity selling company compared with the original mode;
(2) the closed-loop management and control method disclosed by the invention is used for managing and controlling a single performance risk, can simplify a risk management and control process compared with two types of performance risks in the original mode, and is convenient for a power selling company to participate in market-oriented transaction. The closed-loop control method of the invention ensures that the electricity selling company only needs to submit a type of performance guarantee. Under the existing mechanism, the transaction center is used as a market operating mechanism and is responsible for issuing a settlement basis, risk control and default treatment, assisting in cashing a insurance premium and pursuing arrears, but not bearing the loss and the arrears of a market default contract; the grid company is responsible for market clearing and capital transfer and acts as a short-term contributor to losses and arrears. In order to promote effective management and control of market performance risks, a trading center is suggested to serve as a performance guarantee beneficiary, and a fund receipt and payment channel with a power grid company is opened;
(3) compared with the futures deposit system, the futures transaction only allows the participants to provide cash as a performance guarantee, and the closed-loop control method can be compatible with both insurance coverage and cash guarantee. The futures trading requires that a participant opens a deposit account to store deposit, the account is a settlement account at the same time, the position holding profit and loss and the position holding profit and loss are calculated after the daily trading is finished, account funds are increased and decreased, wind control and settlement management are integrated, and daily non-liability is realized; the closed-loop control method of the invention is only used when the market subject defaults to guarantee the performance, and is not used for deduction of expenses under normal conditions, and wind control and settlement services are in parallel.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order that those skilled in the art will better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the following detailed description is given with reference to the accompanying drawings:
referring to fig. 1, a method for closed-loop control of performance risk in an electric power market according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
s1, defining basic requirements of management content, management objects and market membership;
s2, establishing a performance risk assessment model by combining a market settlement mechanism;
s3, defining the performance guarantee management of the electricity selling company;
s4, establishing a credit early warning management mechanism according to the change of the credit limit of the power selling company;
s5, stipulating a default disposal method of the power selling company;
and S6, verifying the effectiveness of the method according to the calculation result.
In step S1, the management content of the closed-loop management and control method for electric power market performance risk includes performing risk calculation, performing guarantee requirement, centralized competition for tradable electricity quantity constraint, credit monitoring and early warning, mandatory disposal, and calculation examples;
the management object of the closed-loop control method for the electric power market performance risk is an electric power selling company at the present stage;
the electric power market member authority comprises a market main body (mainly an electric power selling company) authority, a power grid enterprise authority and an electric power transaction mechanism authority, wherein the market main body authority comprises whether to submit a performance guarantee according to the performance risk management requirement and the amount of foot in time and whether to cooperate with real credit early warning and performance risk control measures; the power grid enterprise authority comprises the steps of pushing payment and arrearage information of a market main body to an electric power transaction mechanism, using a performance guarantee submitted by the market main body according to related programs, and carrying out arrearage tracing on the market main body with a settlement relation; the power transaction authority responsibility comprises organization implementation in charge of performing risk management, drawing up related working systems of performing risk management according to the responsibility, and performing risk assessment, performing guarantee management, credit early warning management and default treatment on market subjects.
In step S2, the contract fulfillment risk of the market entity is composed of the risk of not paying the bill, and the risk of not delivering the contract. The market main body counts the risk of not paying bills or not paying bills according to whether the settlement basis is issued or not in medium-long term contracts, spot electric quantity and retail contracts on the current day and before the potential disposal day. Market entities account for non-delivery contract risks for medium and long term contracts delivered after a potential treatment day. The evaluation result is profitable for the market subject and zero performance risk.
The calculation formula of the performance risk is as follows:
R＝max{Runpaid+RIs not issued+RIs not delivered，0}
Wherein:
r is the risk of performing a contract;
RunpaidRisk of unpaid bills;
Ris not issuedRisk for not paying a bill;
Ris not deliveredRisk for the non-delivery of contracts.
The positive value represents the loss of the market main body, and the market main body pays the power grid enterprise; negative values represent market subject profits, paid by the grid enterprise to the market subject.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
risk of unpaid bills
The market main body participates in the charges generated by medium and long-term electric energy transaction, spot electric energy transaction and retail transaction, and the risk of unpaid bills is counted from the settlement basis issued by the electric energy transaction mechanism until the market main body finishes payment. The calculation formula of risk of unpaid bills is as follows:
Runpaid＝∑(BEm－PEm)
Wherein:
RunpaidRisk of unpaid bills;
BEmto settle the bill charges for month m;
PEmthe paid fee for month m is settled.
(II) risk of not paying a bill
The market main body participates in the charges generated by medium and long-term electric energy transaction, spot electric energy transaction and retail transaction on and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power transaction mechanism does not issue the settlement basis, including the cleared and non-cleared charges, and the risk of not paying the bill is counted until the settlement basis is issued. The calculation formula of the risk of not paying a fee is as follows:
Ris not issued＝CE+UE
Wherein:
the risk that the bill is not issued is the bill-not-issued cost;
CE is the cleared cost;
the UE is not clearing the cost.
1. Cleared costs
The market main body participates in the transaction on the current day and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power transaction mechanism already issues a clearing result and does not issue the cost of settlement basis. At the present stage, according to a 'day-clearing-month-closing' mode of a wholesale market, clearing results such as medium and long-term electric energy cost, day-ahead deviation cost, real-time deviation cost, deviation income transfer cost and the like are released daily, and clearing results such as medium and long-term trading profit and loss, apportioned cost, returned cost and the like are released monthly. The retail market clearing results are released monthly. Each expense item accounts the cleared expense from the issuance of the clearing result until a settlement basis is issued.
2. Outstanding fees
The market main body participates in the transaction on the current day and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power transaction mechanism does not issue the expense of the clearing result. The charge items are calculated according to the following designated method, and the unsettled charges are added until settlement basis is issued. At present, according to the expense items of the power selling companies, the calculation formula of the uncleared expense is as follows:
UE＝UEmedium and long term+UEIn-stock+UETrading+UEApportioned return－UERetail sale
Wherein:
UE is not clearing the cost;
UEmedium and long termThe medium and long term electric energy cost is not cleared;
UEin-stockThe cost of the current electric energy is not cleared;
UEtradingThe profit and loss of the non-settlement medium and long term transaction;
UEapportioned returnThe return cost is allocated for the uncleaned calculation;
UEretail saleRetail revenue is not cleared.
a. Unrefined mid-and long-term electric energy costs
The medium-long term contract delivery is carried out by market main bodies on and before the current day of potential disposal, and the medium-long term electric energy cost of clearing results is not issued by electric power transaction institutions. The medium and long term contract value is accumulated according to hours, and the calculation formula is as follows:
UEmedium and long term＝∑(QMiddle and long term, t·PMiddle and long term, t)
Wherein:
UEmedium and long termThe medium and long term electric energy cost is not cleared;
Qmiddle and long term, tThe medium-long term net contract electric quantity is a time period t;
Pmiddle and long term, tThe medium and long term net contract composite price for time period t.
b. Uncleared spot cost of electric energy
The market main body carries out spot-shipment electricity quantity delivery on the current day and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power transaction mechanism does not release the day-ahead deviation cost, the real-time deviation cost and the deviation income transfer cost of the clearing result. Accumulating spot goods deviation electric quantity by day, and estimating the value of the spot goods electric quantity according to the spot goods price level of the latest operation day, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
UEin-stock＝∑(QPractical, d－QMiddle and long term, d)·PDay ahead
Wherein:
UEin-stockThe cost of the current electric energy is not cleared;
Qpractical, dTaking the practical electric quantity average value of the latest D reference published day clearing result running days as the practical electric quantity of the running day D;
Qmiddle and long term, dThe medium and long term net contract electric quantity of the operation day d;
Pday aheadAnd taking the average value of the day-ahead electricity prices of the unified settlement points of the running days of the latest reference published day settlement results.
c. Not clear up medium and long term trade profit and loss
The method refers to medium and long term contract trading of the market main body at present, and medium and long term trading profit and loss of clearing results are not issued by the electric power trading mechanism. The profit or loss generated by the difference between the contract holding price and the yielding price is accumulated according to each transaction, and the calculation formula is as follows:
UEtrading＝∑[QGive business, i×(PHold, i－PGive business, i)]
Wherein:
UEtradingThe profit and loss of the non-settlement medium and long term transaction;
Qgive business, iThe yield electricity quantity of the ith transaction;
Phold, iThe original value of the ith transaction is obtained;
Pgive business, iAnd giving a yield price for the ith transaction.
d. Not yet resolved amortization of return costs
The market main body carries out wholesale market electricity delivery on the current day and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power trading mechanism does not release the apportionment cost and the return cost of the clearing result. The practical electric quantity is accumulated according to the day, and the evaluation is carried out according to the apportionment return expense level of the latest settlement month, and the calculation formula is as follows:
UEapportioned return＝∑QPractical, d·PApportioned return
Wherein:
UEapportioned returnThe return cost is allocated for the uncleaned calculation;
Qpractical, dFor the practical electric quantity of the operation day D, the operation day of the clearing result of the published day takes the practical electric data, and the operation day of the clearing result of the unpublished day takes the practical electric quantity average value of the latest D reference clearing result operation day of the published day;
Papportioned returnAnd (4) for distributing the return cost for the power consumption, and taking the maximum value of the return cost for the power consumption distribution of the power consumption of the current M reference released month clearing results for settlement months.
e. Unpaid retail revenue
The retail electric company carries out retail market electric quantity delivery on the current day and before the potential disposal day, and the electric power transaction mechanism does not release the retail income of the clearing result. The practical electric quantity is accumulated according to the day, and the evaluation is carried out according to the retail income level of the latest settlement month, and the calculation formula is as follows:
UEretail sale＝∑QPractical, d·PRetail sale
Wherein:
UEretail saleRetail revenue is not cleared;
Qpractical, dFor the practical electric quantity of the operation day D, the operation day of the clearing result of the published day takes the practical electric data, and the operation day of the clearing result of the unpublished day takes the practical electric quantity average value of the latest D reference clearing result operation day of the published day;
Pretail saleAnd in order to obtain the electricity consumption zero-sale income, M recently referred monthly clearing results are selected to settle the electricity consumption sharing return charge minimum value of the electricity selling company in the month, and the non-participated settlement month is replaced by the monthly electricity consumption zero-sale income minimum value of other electricity selling companies.
In the above calculation formula, the number of days D of the fulfillment risk assessment reference operation day and the number of the fulfillment risk assessment reference settlement months M are referred to as market operation parameters, and are recommended by the market management committee and executed after approval of the government competent department and the energy regulatory agency. The suggested values of the parameters at the time of market starting are shown in table 1.
| Name (R) | Symbol | Suggested value |
| Reference day of operation for performing risk assessment | DReference to | 14 |
| Number of reference settlement months for performing risk assessment | MReference to | 3 |
| Credit occupancy early warning threshold | OEarly warning | 60％ |
| Credit occupancy warning threshold | OAlarm system | 80％ |
| Credit occupancy review threshold | OInvestigation of | 95％ |
| Credit occupancy handling threshold | ODisposal of | 100％ |
| Number of days of working day of credit observation period | DDisposal of | 10 |
TABLE 1
(3) Risk of undelivered contracts
The market main body considers the risk of un-delivered contract due to the loss possibly generated by the forced treatment carried out when the market main body does not meet the requirement of credit limit after the potential treatment date. Matching with the mandatory disposal measures, only considering medium and long-term centralized competitive contracts, evaluating the profit or loss of disposal according to the standard and accumulating, and generating the non-income risk of profit in general expectation, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
Ris not delivered＝max{∑[QAfter the potential treatment day, i·(PHold, i－PTreatment, i)]，0}
Wherein:
Ris not deliveredRisk for a non-delivered contract;
Qafter the potential treatment day, iThe delivery power after the target i potential treatment day;
Phold, iA price is held for the subject i;
Ptreatment, iThe evaluation is processed for the target i, and the latest comprehensive price P is processed according to the target i at the present stageSynthesis of iAnd the ratio of fluctuation to stop is U%, the market subject has the mark i of buying the electricity quantity according to PReference, i(1+ U%) calculation, market owner holds the target i for selling electricity, according to PReference, iCalculated (1-U%).
In step S3, the requirement of guarantee of performance of the market agent (i.e. the power selling company) is clarified;
(a) basic requirements
1. The electric power transaction organization is responsible for receiving and managing the performance guaranty, establishes a performance guaranty management working system, and determines the receiving, managing, returning, executing, condition recording and reporting procedures of the performance guaranty.
2. The market subject needs to pay the full amount to guarantee the performance within the specified time according to the publicly released standard. Failing to pay for the full amount on time, the electricity trading institution has the right to take default treatment measures according to relevant regulations.
3. When the market subject has a large risk, the electric power trading mechanism may request the market subject to add a performance guarantee.
(II) initial performance guarantee
The electricity selling company must report the expected annual electricity selling scale to the electricity trading organization, and calculate and submit the initial performance guarantee according to the expected annual electricity selling scale.
1. When the annual electricity sale scale is estimated to be not more than 4 hundred million kilowatt hours (including the cost), the initial performance guarantee limit is 200 ten thousand yuan.
2. The estimated annual electricity sale scale is between 4 and 30 hundred million kilowatt hours (including the cost), and the initial performance guarantee amount is calculated according to 0.5 minute/kilowatt hour and does not exceed 1000 ten thousand yuan at most.
3. The initial performance guarantee amount is calculated according to 0.5 minute/kilowatt hour when the expected annual electricity sale scale is more than 30 hundred million kilowatt hours, and the maximum value is not more than 2000 ten thousand yuan.
(III) management of fulfillment insurance
1. Element of fulfilling bond
a. The insured person. The person guaranteeing the performance insurance is an electricity selling company.
b. A guarantor. The performance insurance guarantees that people are commercial banks and enterprise group financial companies which are approved by the administration and management organization of the national institute of banking industry and have corresponding business qualification to issue financial licenses. Wherein, the enterprise group financial company can only open a performance insurance letter to the group member units.
c. The beneficiary. The benefit of the fulfillment insurance policy is the Guangdong electric network finite responsibility company.
d. And (4) a validity period. The validity period of the fulfillment insurance policy at least covers the next month expense settlement deadline.
2. Establishment of fulfillment insurance
The market main body opens a performance bond at the bank or the enterprise group financial company.
3. Contract fulfillment letter reception
a. The submitter of the fulfillment insurance policy needs to submit the original document and the letter of commitment to the electric power transaction institution. The commitment requires the legal representative of the market subject to sign and cover the official seal of the market subject.
b. The market main body which re-opens the performance bond for complementing the credit line or the market main body which needs to re-open the performance bond after the original performance bond is expired should submit the re-opened performance bond original document and the letter of commitment to the electric power transaction institution.
c. After the electric power transaction mechanism receives the fulfillment insurance bond submitted by the market main body, the electric power transaction mechanism opens a fulfillment insurance bond receiving certificate to the market main body within 5 working days.
An electronic performance bond acceptance procedure and requirements are separately established.
3. Fulfillment of fulfillment insurance
a. The market main body is determined to be defaulting, the power grid enterprise can provide a requirement for executing a fulfillment insurance policy to the power transaction institution, provide original documents of the fulfillment insurance policy to a fulfillment insurance policy issuing unit, request payment, and send an execution notice to the market main body.
b. The power grid enterprise proposes an application for borrowing the original copy of the fulfillment insurance policy to the electric power transaction mechanism within 5 working days before the fulfillment insurance policy is executed, and the electric power transaction mechanism sends the original copy of the fulfillment insurance policy to the power grid enterprise after making a borrowing record. After the power grid enterprise finishes executing the fulfillment insurance letter, returning the fulfillment insurance letter to the electric power transaction mechanism within 5 working days from the execution finishing date, and making a return record.
c. The market body with disagreement about the execution affairs of the performance insurance policy needs to propose disagreement to the power grid enterprise and the electric power transaction institution within 10 working days from the date of issuing the execution notice. The debt that has been paid by the fulfillment bond will be refunded within 30 working days, verified that the market entity has no arrears or the amount of the debt is miscalculated.
The electronic performance bond execution program and the requirement are separately made.
4. Returning of contract
The market body can apply for returning and performing insurance letters to the electric power transaction mechanism, and the following materials are required to be provided for the electric power transaction mechanism:
a. applying for returning written application of the contract-performing insurance, and adding unit official seal;
b. the authorized letter and ID card of the person who receives the contract must be signed by the legal representative of the market body and covered with unit official seal.
c. After receiving the market main body application, the electric power transaction mechanism checks the completeness of related materials and returns corresponding performance insurance within 10 working days from the date of checking and confirming no errors.
An electronic performance bond return program and a request are separately made.
(IV) Cash guarantee management
1. Cash guarantee account
The market main body is supposed to submit the cash guarantee, and needs to transact the special account of the cash guarantee by cooperating with the bank of the electric power transaction mechanism and authorize the electric power transaction mechanism to carry out the management operations of freezing, unfreezing, deducting and the like on the account.
2. Cash guarantee submission
The market main body deposits the cash guarantee to be submitted into the special account of the market main body, initiates a cash guarantee submission application through the transaction platform, and finishes the submission after the corresponding amount in the account is successfully frozen.
3. Cash guarantee enforcement
a. The market main body is determined to be defaulting, and the power grid enterprise can execute cash guarantee to pay the defaulting and send out an execution notice to the market main body.
b. A market body having an incongruity about cash guarantee execution matters needs to present an incongruity to a power grid enterprise and an electric power transaction institution within 10 working days from the date of issuing of an execution notice. The arrears that have been paid by the cash guarantee will be refunded within 30 working days, verified that the market entity has no arrears or the arrears are miscalculated.
4. Cash guarantee refund
The market main body initiates a cash guarantee refund application through the trading platform, the cash guarantee refund application is checked by the electric power trading mechanism to pass, the refund is completed after the corresponding amount in the account is defrosted successfully, and the market main body can transfer the defrosted amount independently.
In step S4, a credit warning management mechanism is established according to the change of the credit limit of the power selling company.
Credit line calculation
The credit line includes a guaranteed credit line and an unsecured credit line. The guarantee credit limit is determined according to the performance guarantee provided by the market main body, the non-guarantee credit limit is determined according to the 'Guangdong electric power market credit evaluation management implementation rules', and the tangible net asset ratio corresponding to the credit evaluation level of the market main body. The calculation formula is as follows:
C＝SC+UC
wherein:
c is a credit line;
SC is guarantee credit line;
UC is the unsecured credit limit.
(II) Credit limit request
The market main body participates in the market transaction, and the credit line is more than or equal to the performance risk.
(III) Credit occupancy calculation
The calculation formula of the credit occupancy of the market main body is as follows:
O＝R/C
wherein:
o is the credit occupancy;
r is the risk of performing a contract;
c is a credit line.
(IV) Credit monitoring and early warning
The electric power transaction mechanism monitors the credit line of the market main body based on the credit occupancy rate and informs the market main body to meet the credit line requirement by proper means.
1. If the credit occupancy rate reaches the early warning threshold value O for early warning, the electric power transaction mechanism carries out early warning reminding on the electric power selling company in the transaction system, and the electric power selling company can take measures of paying bill cost to reduce the performance risk, submitting performance guarantee to increase the credit limit and the like, so that the credit occupancy rate is reduced.
2. If the credit occupation rate reaches the alarm threshold value O for alarm, the electric power transaction mechanism carries out alarm reminding on the electricity selling company in a written form, and the electricity selling company can take measures to reduce the credit occupation rate.
3. And if the credit occupancy rate reaches the investigation threshold O for investigation, the electricity selling company enters a credit investigation period of D investigation working days, and measures are needed to be taken to reduce the credit occupancy rate before the investigation is finished. The electric power transaction mechanism sends out a preannouncement instruction to the power selling company, explains the performance risk condition and possible control measures, and copies the bilateral negotiation and listing contract counterparty and retail users.
4. And (4) on the investigation ending day, if the credit occupation rate reaches a disposal threshold value O for disposal, starting a credit default disposal flow by the electric power transaction mechanism.
The early warning of the credit occupancy early warning threshold O, the early warning of the warning threshold O, the investigation of the investigation threshold O, the treatment of the treatment threshold O and the investigation of the number of days D of the working day of the credit investigation period are taken as market operation parameters, and the market management committee proposes the proposal and executes the proposal after the approval of government competent departments and energy regulatory agencies.
In step S5, a default handling method is defined to restrict the electric power selling company behavior:
(ii) credit breach disposition
1. Suspending transaction rights
And from the next day of disposal, the credit default market main body is subjected to card stopping treatment, and the participation right of the credit default market main body in market trading is suspended.
2. Processing wholesale contracts
a. The electric power transaction mechanism returns to the contract registration, does not settle the account from the day of disposal, and simultaneously notifies both parties of the contract. The credit default market body shall fulfill the corresponding obligations according to the original contract default clauses.
b. The centralized competitive contract held by the credit default market main body starts delivery on the current day and before the next bidding transfer transaction, and the residual electric quantity is subjected to deviation settlement according to the price before the current day; the bid transfer is organized starting delivery after the next bid transfer transaction. The assignment is about the one for buying the electricity quantity, and the price is higher; the transfer contract is for selling electricity and is obtained by the lower price. The outstanding contract continues to organize transfers in subsequent bid transfer transactions until the contract begins to be transferred.
3. Releasing retail relationships
The main body of the credit default market is the electric power selling company, the retail relation is released from the day after the treatment, and the electric power user is informed. And (4) from the release date, the related power consumers settle the prices according to the catalog until the power consumers establish a new retail relationship. After the conditions are mature, the related power consumers are transferred to a guaranteed-base electricity selling company, and the electricity consumption is settled according to the guaranteed-base electricity selling price until the power consumers establish a new retail relationship.
(II) arrearage violation disposition
And when the market main body does not pay the full fee according to the period, the power grid enterprise executes the performance guarantee payment arrearage of the power grid enterprise and sends an execution notice to the power grid enterprise. The unsettled cost still exists, and the power grid enterprise starts legal programs to compensate for the debt market body.
In step S6, the validity of the proposed method is verified based on the calculation results.
First, the closed-loop management and control method for the performance risk of the electric power market is adopted
The current operation day is 6 months and 10 days, the month settlement result is released in 5 months and the previous months, the day settlement result is released in 6 months and 1-5 days, and the potential treatment day is 6 months and 17 days. The boundary conditions are shown in table 2:
TABLE 2
The calculation results are shown in table 3:
| risk of performing contract | Credit base | Request for credit limit |
| 856.24 Wanyuan | 1000 ten thousand yuan | 1000 ten thousand yuan |
TABLE 3
(II) adopting the original method
The current operation day is 6 months and 10 days, the month settlement result is released in 5 months and the previous months, the day settlement result is released in 6 months and 1-5 days, and the potential treatment day is 6 months and 17 days. The boundary conditions are shown in table 4:
TABLE 4
The calculation results are shown in table 5:
| risk of performing contract | Credit base | Request for credit limit |
| 1152.58 Wanyuan | 1000 ten thousand yuan | 1152.58 Wanyuan |
TABLE 5
From the calculation results of table 3 and table 5, it can be seen that:
(1) in the original mode, floating profit and loss of a centralized competitive trading contract are considered for the trade performance risk, monthly settlement cost, daily clearing cost and unremoved electric energy cost are considered for the settlement performance risk, but a complete model is not established for the profit and loss of medium-long term trade, the apportionment of return cost and retail income, and loss possibly caused by contract forced disposal is not covered. The closed-loop control method of the invention considers the full cycle profit and loss of the electricity selling company, including the net profit and loss of participating in medium and long-term markets, spot markets and retail markets and the forced disposal of loss risks, sets risks except a credit base number prevention model, and is more suitable for the market design and the practical operation of the electricity selling company compared with the original mode;
(2) the closed-loop management and control method disclosed by the invention is used for managing and controlling a single performance risk, can simplify a risk management and control process compared with two types of performance risks in the original mode, and is convenient for a power selling company to participate in market-oriented transaction. The closed-loop control method of the invention ensures that the electricity selling company only needs to submit a type of performance guarantee. Under the existing mechanism, the transaction center is used as a market operating mechanism and is responsible for issuing a settlement basis, risk control and default treatment, assisting in cashing a insurance premium and pursuing arrears, but not bearing the loss and the arrears of a market default contract; the grid company is responsible for market clearing and capital transfer and acts as a short-term contributor to losses and arrears. In order to promote effective management and control of market performance risks, a trading center is suggested to serve as a performance guarantee beneficiary, and a fund receipt and payment channel with a power grid company is opened;
(3) compared with the futures deposit system, the futures transaction only allows the participants to provide cash as a performance guarantee, and the closed-loop control method can be compatible with both insurance coverage and cash guarantee. The futures trading requires that a participant opens a deposit account to store deposit, the account is a settlement account at the same time, the position holding profit and loss and the position holding profit and loss are calculated after the daily trading is finished, account funds are increased and decreased, wind control and settlement management are integrated, and daily non-liability is realized; under the closed-loop control method, the performance guarantee is only used when the market main body violates the contract, and is not used for deduction of expenses under normal conditions, and wind control and settlement services are in parallel.
In conclusion, the closed-loop control method for the performance risk of the electric power market can effectively integrate trading, settlement of the performance risk and performance guarantee, simplify the control flow, facilitate the participation of market main bodies in market trading, prevent risks outside a quantitative model and reduce risk exposure.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments are only for illustrating the present invention and are not to be used as a limitation of the present invention, and that changes and modifications to the above described embodiments are within the scope of the claims of the present invention as long as they are within the spirit and scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A closed-loop control method for electric power market performance risk is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, defining basic requirements of management content, management objects and market membership;
s2, establishing a performance risk assessment model by combining a market settlement mechanism;
s3, defining the performance guarantee management of the electricity selling company;
s4, establishing a credit early warning management mechanism according to the change of the credit limit of the power selling company;
s5, stipulating a default disposal method of the power selling company;
and S6, verifying the effectiveness of the method according to the calculation result.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S1, the management content includes a performance risk assessment, a performance guarantee management, a centralized competitive tradeable power constraint, a credit warning management, a default handling and a calculation example;
the current stage of the management object is an electricity selling company;
the market member authority comprises a market main body authority, a power grid enterprise authority and an electric power transaction mechanism authority, wherein the market main body authority comprises whether a power selling company submits a performance guarantee in time according to a performance risk management requirement and whether real credit early warning and performance risk control measures are matched; the power grid enterprise authority comprises the steps of pushing payment and arrearage information of a market main body to an electric power transaction mechanism, using a performance guarantee submitted by the market main body according to related programs and carrying out arrearage tracing on the market main body with a settlement relation; the power transaction authority responsibility comprises organization implementation in charge of performing risk management, drawing up related working systems of performing risk management according to the responsibility, and performing risk assessment, performing guarantee management, credit early warning management and default treatment on market subjects.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S2, the fulfillment risk is composed of an unpaid bill risk, an unpaid fee risk and an undelivered contract risk, and wherein:
the risk of the unpaid bill refers to the payment which is issued by the electric power transaction mechanism and is not paid by the market main body;
the risk of not paying the bill means that the market main body participates in the transaction and the electric power transaction mechanism does not issue the payment of the settlement basis;
the risk of the undelivered contract refers to the money generated by the market main body because the market main body does not meet the requirement of the credit line, and the electric quantity of the undelivered contract is forcibly disposed.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S3, the performance guaranty management refers to a market entity submitting to the electric power exchange for guarantying its performance of market contractual obligations; at present, the form of the performance guaranty received by the electric power transaction institution is mainly a performance bond, and the market body chooses to provide cash guaranty on the principle of voluntary, wherein:
the performance insurance letter refers to a paper or electronic guarantee certificate which is approved by a national institute of banking and industry supervision and management organization to establish and issue a financial license and has corresponding business qualification, and is issued to the power grid enterprise according to the requirements of a market main body by enterprise group financial companies and ensures that the market main body fulfills the market contractual obligation;
the cash guarantee means that the market main body voluntarily submits cash to the electric power transaction mechanism so as to ensure that the market main body fulfills the guarantee form of market contract obligation; the cash guarantee is stored in a bank-dedicated account for management.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S4, the credit warning management is a mechanism for electric power transaction institution to perform warning management on credit of electric power selling companies, and includes credit line calculation, credit line requirement, credit occupation degree calculation and credit monitoring warning, wherein:
the credit line is calculated as the guarantee credit line and the non-guarantee credit line;
the credit limit requirement meets the requirement that the credit limit is greater than or equal to the performance risk;
the credit occupancy rate is the performance risk/credit limit;
the credit monitoring and early warning is that the electric power transaction mechanism monitors the credit line of the market main body based on the credit occupation rate and informs the market main body to meet the requirement of the credit line by a proper means.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step S5, the default treatment refers to a treatment method of default behavior of the power trading institution to the power selling company, and includes a credit default treatment and an arrearage default treatment, wherein:
the credit default treatment refers to the treatment of the power selling companies with the default of the credit by the power transaction institution;
the arrearage default treatment refers to the treatment of an electric power selling company with arrearage default by an electric power transaction mechanism.
7. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S6 includes the following steps:
s61, respectively calculating the performance risk, the credit base number and the credit limit under different methods based on the calculation example, and verifying the effectiveness of the method;
s62, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in comparison with two different methods.
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