CN112508296A - Power transmission line icing thickness prediction method and system considering solar radiation ablation - Google Patents

Power transmission line icing thickness prediction method and system considering solar radiation ablation Download PDF

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CN112508296A
CN112508296A CN202011490496.7A CN202011490496A CN112508296A CN 112508296 A CN112508296 A CN 112508296A CN 202011490496 A CN202011490496 A CN 202011490496A CN 112508296 A CN112508296 A CN 112508296A
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icing
ice coating
transmission line
thickness
power transmission
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怀晓伟
郭俊
李丽
简洲
蔡泽林
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power grid ice melting, and discloses a method and a system for predicting the icing thickness of a power transmission line by considering solar radiation ablation so as to guide the operation and maintenance of a power grid. The method comprises the following steps: collecting solar radiation data, and predicting a solar direct radiation value which is updated step by step at the power transmission line according to 1 hour in duration; collecting the real-time icing thickness and the icing type of the power transmission line; searching albedo and icing density corresponding to each icing type; calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the direct solar radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type; at the updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, predicting the icing thickness of the next hour according to the real-time icing thickness of the power transmission line, the icing ablation speed of the next hour and the icing growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to an icing numerical value prediction mode; and repeating the steps at the next updating moment, and analogically obtaining the corresponding ice coating ablation time when the ice coating thickness is 0.

Description

Power transmission line icing thickness prediction method and system considering solar radiation ablation
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid ice melting, in particular to a method and a system for predicting the icing thickness of a power transmission line by considering solar radiation ablation.
Background
The ice disaster is a natural enemy of safe and stable operation of the power grid. In 2008, large-area rain and snow freezing disasters occur in southern areas of China, 70 ten thousand bases are covered with ice and turned over, direct economic loss caused by the disasters reaches billions of yuan, and social production and life are seriously influenced. The accurate prediction of the ice coating starting time and the ice coating ending time of the power transmission line has important guiding significance for guiding the ice melting of a power grid and reasonably planning production.
At present, there are various methods for predicting the icing of the transmission line. For example, in patent CN105184407A, an icing growth trend in each time of future prediction is calculated based on an atmospheric numerical model-based power transmission line icing growth prediction method; the patent CN106203713A considers the influence of solar radiation and corrects the forecast of the icing numerical value of the power grid in the northern area.
But the method still does not give sufficient and comprehensive consideration to the estimation of the ice-coating ablation speed of the power transmission line. For example, patent CN105184407A calculates the amount of increase in ice coating on the transmission line based on whether the air temperature at 2m above the ground is greater than 0, and actually under the action of solar radiation, even if the temperature is lower than 0, the ice coating still melts rapidly, and the specific heat capacity of air and ice is different, the air temperature at 2m is used as the ablation index of ice coating on the transmission line at high altitude for several tens of meters, which brings a large deviation to the estimation of the ice coating ablation speed; if a critical value of the solar radiation intensity of the ice coating melting of the lead is given in CN106203713A, when the calculated solar radiation intensity and the maximum temperature of the current day meet certain conditions, the ice coating melting is performed, only a qualitative description is given, and the speed of the ice coating melting of the power transmission line cannot be quantitatively measured, so that the ice coating ending time cannot be predicted.
In view of this, a calculation method for the ice-coating ablation speed of the power transmission line based on solar radiation absorption is needed to be researched, so that the ice-coating end time can be accurately predicted in advance, a power grid operation and maintenance unit can be better guided to develop reasonable production planning, and normal power supply is maintained.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to disclose a method and a system for predicting the icing thickness of a power transmission line by considering solar radiation ablation so as to guide the operation and maintenance of a power grid.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention discloses a power transmission line icing thickness prediction method considering solar radiation ablation, which comprises the following steps of:
collecting solar radiation data, and predicting a solar direct radiation value which is updated step by step at the power transmission line according to 1 hour in duration;
collecting the real-time ice coating thickness and the ice coating types of the power transmission line, wherein the ice coating types comprise rime, rime and mixed rime; searching albedo and icing density corresponding to each icing type;
calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the solar direct radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type;
at the updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, predicting the icing thickness of the next hour according to the real-time icing thickness of the power transmission line, the icing ablation speed of the next hour and the icing growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to an icing numerical value prediction mode;
and repeating the steps at the next updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, and so on to obtain the corresponding ice coating ablation time when the ice coating thickness is 0.
Preferably, the calculation formula for calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the direct solar radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type is as follows:
Figure BDA0002840541240000021
wherein M is the icing ablation speed and the unit is mm/h; r1Is the direct solar radiation value and has the unit of W/m2s; alpha is albedo; rho is the ice coating density in kg/m3(ii) a Q is the specific latent heat of dissolution of ice, and takes a value of 3.34 x 105J/kg。
Preferably, at the update time corresponding to the predicted value of the solar direct radiation, the calculation formula for predicting the ice coating thickness of the next hour according to the real-time ice coating thickness of the power transmission line, the ice coating ablation speed of the next hour and the ice coating growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to the ice coating numerical prediction mode is as follows:
the predicted icing thickness value of the next hour is the current real-time icing thickness-the icing ablation speed of one hour in the future + the icing growth thickness of one hour in the future obtained according to the icing value prediction mode.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention further discloses a system for predicting icing thickness of a power transmission line considering solar radiation ablation, which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method when executing the computer program.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
the calculation process is simple and convenient, the icing finishing time can be accurately predicted in advance, the universality is good, and the method can be suitable for calculating the icing ablation speed of the power transmission line in different areas; by adopting the calculation result of the invention, the operation and maintenance unit of the power grid can be better guided to develop reasonable production planning, and the normal power supply of the power grid is maintained.
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting icing thickness of a power transmission line in consideration of solar radiation ablation according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The embodiments of the invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings, but the invention can be implemented in many different ways as defined and covered by the claims.
Example 1
The embodiment discloses a method for predicting icing thickness of a power transmission line by considering solar radiation ablation, which, as shown in fig. 1, includes:
and step S1, collecting solar radiation data, and predicting the solar direct radiation value of the power transmission line which is gradually updated according to 1 hour in duration.
Step S2, collecting the real-time icing thickness and the icing types of the power transmission line, wherein the icing types comprise rime, rime and mixed rime; and searching the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to each ice coating type.
And step S3, calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the direct solar radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the ice coating ablation speed according to the direct solar radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type is as follows:
Figure BDA0002840541240000031
wherein M is the icing ablation speed and the unit is mm/h; r1Is the direct solar radiation value and has the unit of W/m2s; alpha is albedo; rho is the ice coating density in kg/m3(ii) a Q is the specific latent heat of dissolution of ice, and takes a value of 3.34 x 105J/kg。
In the present invention, the albedo values of the three types of ice coating are shown in table 1.
Table 1:
type (B) Rime for rain Freezing mixture Rime
Albedo 0.3 0.5 0.8
Three different values of ice coating density are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
Type (B) Rime for rain Freezing mixture Rime
Density of ice coating 850 500 250
And S4, predicting the ice coating thickness of the next hour according to the real-time ice coating thickness of the power transmission line, the ice coating ablation speed of the next hour and the ice coating growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to the ice coating numerical prediction mode at the updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value.
In this step, a preferred calculation formula is:
the predicted icing thickness value of the next hour is the current real-time icing thickness-the icing ablation speed of one hour in the future + the icing growth thickness of one hour in the future obtained according to the icing value prediction mode.
And S5, repeating the steps at the next updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, and so on to obtain the corresponding ice coating ablation time when the ice coating thickness is 0.
For the above method, a specific calculation example includes:
1. the solar radiation values predicted to be 12 hours in the future are shown in table 3, respectively, assuming that the initial time is 6 am.
Table 3:
predicting duration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Predicting radiation 49 275 506 703 851 936 952 898 777 399 217 147
2. And 5mm of ice coating thickness is collected, the ice coating type is rime, and the ice coating-free growth in the future 12 hours is predicted according to the ice coating mode.
3. The calculated icing ablation rate is shown in table 4.
Table 4:
predicting duration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ablation rate 0.08 0.49 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0
4. The calculated icing complete ablation time is shown in table 5.
Table 5:
predicting duration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Actual time 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Thickness of ice coating 4.92 4.43 3.53 2.33 0.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Therefore, an icing ablation time of 12 hours was obtained.
Example 2
The embodiment discloses a power transmission line icing thickness prediction system considering solar radiation ablation, which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to realize the steps of the method corresponding to the embodiment.
To sum up, the method and the system for predicting the icing thickness of the power transmission line with consideration of solar radiation ablation disclosed by the embodiment of the invention at least have the following beneficial effects:
the calculation process is simple and convenient, the icing finishing time can be accurately predicted in advance, the universality is good, and the method can be suitable for calculating the icing ablation speed of the power transmission line in different areas; by adopting the calculation result of the invention, the operation and maintenance unit of the power grid can be better guided to develop reasonable production planning, and the normal power supply of the power grid is maintained.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. A method for predicting icing thickness of a power transmission line considering solar radiation ablation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
collecting solar radiation data, and predicting a solar direct radiation value which is updated step by step at the power transmission line according to 1 hour in duration;
collecting the real-time ice coating thickness and the ice coating types of the power transmission line, wherein the ice coating types comprise rime, rime and mixed rime; searching albedo and icing density corresponding to each icing type;
calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the solar direct radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type;
at the updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, predicting the icing thickness of the next hour according to the real-time icing thickness of the power transmission line, the icing ablation speed of the next hour and the icing growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to an icing numerical value prediction mode;
and repeating the steps at the next updating moment corresponding to the solar direct radiation predicted value, and so on to obtain the corresponding ice coating ablation time when the ice coating thickness is 0.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula for calculating the ice coating ablation speed according to the solar direct radiation value of the power transmission line, the albedo and the ice coating density corresponding to the ice coating type is as follows:
Figure FDA0002840541230000011
wherein M is the icing ablation speed and the unit is mm/h; r1Is the direct solar radiation value and has the unit of W/m2s; alpha is albedo; rho is the ice coating density in kg/m3(ii) a Q is the specific latent heat of dissolution of ice, and takes a value of 3.34 x 105J/kg。
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein at the update time corresponding to the predicted solar direct radiation value, the calculation formula for predicting the ice coating thickness of the next hour according to the real-time ice coating thickness of the power transmission line, the ice coating ablation rate of the next hour and the ice coating growth thickness of the next hour obtained according to the ice coating value prediction mode is as follows:
the predicted icing thickness value of the next hour is the current real-time icing thickness-the icing ablation speed of one hour in the future + the icing growth thickness of one hour in the future obtained according to the icing value prediction mode.
4. A system for predicting icing thickness of an electric transmission line in consideration of solar radiation ablation, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor when executing the computer program implements the steps of any one of the methods of claims 1 to 3.
CN202011490496.7A 2020-12-16 2020-12-16 Power transmission line icing thickness prediction method and system considering solar radiation ablation Pending CN112508296A (en)

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Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103453867A (en) * 2013-09-09 2013-12-18 国家电网公司 Electric transmission line ice coating thickness monitoring method
CN104636601A (en) * 2015-01-05 2015-05-20 中国南方电网有限责任公司 Electric transmission line icing thickness forecasting method for introducing dynamic de-icing process
CN106203713A (en) * 2016-07-14 2016-12-07 国网湖南省电力公司 Consider the northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method of solar radiation
CN110136023A (en) * 2019-03-28 2019-08-16 清华大学 Powerline ice-covering risk profile based on adaptive enhancing study

Patent Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103453867A (en) * 2013-09-09 2013-12-18 国家电网公司 Electric transmission line ice coating thickness monitoring method
CN104636601A (en) * 2015-01-05 2015-05-20 中国南方电网有限责任公司 Electric transmission line icing thickness forecasting method for introducing dynamic de-icing process
CN106203713A (en) * 2016-07-14 2016-12-07 国网湖南省电力公司 Consider the northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method of solar radiation
CN110136023A (en) * 2019-03-28 2019-08-16 清华大学 Powerline ice-covering risk profile based on adaptive enhancing study

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
黄俊杰;胡丹晖;王文烁;方圆;: "架空输电线路覆冰厚度预测技术研究" *

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Application publication date: 20210316