CN112488524A - Gas multi-gas-source purchase guidance system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application discloses purchase guidance system and method of many air supplies of gas, its system includes evaluation device before the purchase, specifically includes: the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract; the price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each gas source; the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source; and the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source based on the gas gap amount. Preferably, the gas multi-gas-source purchasing instruction system further comprises a purchasing post-analysis processing device, and purchasing simulation and cost analysis are performed on purchasing data after each purchasing. The invention can provide economical and practical gas purchasing guidance under the condition of guaranteeing the gas supply.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of gas energy, in particular to a system and a method for guiding purchasing of multiple gas sources.
Background
Along with the development of economy, the gas supply amount also shows a trend of increasing year by year, which provides a new challenge for group gas supply guarantee. On one hand, the stability of the gas used in the whole province is ensured, the conditions of gas shortage, uneven heat value and the like are avoided, and the gas use requirements of various user groups in the whole province are met. On the other hand, on the premise of ensuring gas supply, how to improve the economic benefits of the group and ensure that the purchasing cost is more economical and practical.
At present, group gas sources are various and comprise various gas sources such as pipeline gas, LNG, biomass gas and the like. The pipeline gas is divided into synergetic gas, online transaction gas and offline additional gas. Contract gas is generally signed in advance, and in the actual gas use process, the gas demand may often exceed the contract gas, and this part gas breach often needs to purchase again, and the air supply of purchase is various, and above-mentioned various air supply prices all are different, and each air supply price changes frequently, and the supply capacity is different. Therefore, how to ensure that the comprehensive gas purchasing cost is lower in a settlement period on the premise of ensuring gas supply is a very difficult technical problem to solve.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the application provides a system and a method for guiding the purchase of multiple gas sources of fuel gas, which estimate an optimal gas source combination through a purchase estimation model, generate a purchase guidance report for group reference, and enable the purchase cost to be more economical and practical under the condition that the fuel gas can meet the requirements of various molecular companies. Specifically, the technical scheme of the application is as follows:
on one hand, the application provides a purchasing instruction system of a gas multi-gas source; including the pre-purchase evaluation device, the pre-purchase evaluation device specifically includes: the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract; the price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each gas source; the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source; and the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source based on the gas gap amount.
Preferably, the current price of each gas source collected by the information collection module specifically includes a start price, an LNG price and an off-line extra gas price for on-line gas transaction; the purchase evaluation module specifically comprises: the price prediction submodule is used for predicting the LNG purchasing unit price and the off-line extra gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the currently acquired current price of each gas source; the transaction evaluation submodule is used for comparing the real-time collected starting price of the online transaction with the LNG purchasing unit price; and determining the purchasing mode of the gas gap amount by combining the gasification supply amount of the LNG according to the comparison result.
Preferably, the purchase evaluation module further comprises: the auction determination submodule is used for calculating the gas demand urgent coefficient of each gas demand party and selecting the gas demand party with the highest gas demand urgent coefficient as an auction party; the calculation formula of the gas demand urgency coefficient is as follows:
wherein: c: a gas demand urgency coefficient; g: the gas gap amount; l: the supply of LNG for vaporization.
Preferably, the transaction evaluation sub-module is configured to, when the starting price of the online transaction is greater than or equal to the LNG purchase unit price, further determine whether the LNG gasification supply amount meets the gas gap amount, and if yes, generate a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas gap amount; and if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value between the gas gap quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG.
Preferably, the transaction evaluation sub-module is further configured to, when the start price of the online transaction is less than the LNG purchasing unit price and the auction price of the online transaction is less than the LNG purchasing unit price and is intermediately auction, further determine whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount, and if so, generate a preliminary guidance report for purchasing gas in an online transaction manner according to the gas gap amount; if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, purchasing the gas in an offline transaction mode.
Preferably, the gas multi-gas source purchasing instruction system further comprises: after the gas purchasing of the online transaction is finished, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the gas gap amount and the actual transaction amount of the online transaction to generate an offline purchasing gap amount; and the transaction evaluation submodule is also used for comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the off-line additional gas, selecting a gas source with lower unit price as a purchasing object of the off-line purchasing gap amount, and generating a second guidance report.
Preferably, the gas multi-gas source purchasing instruction system further comprises: a post-purchase analysis processing device; the method comprises the following steps: the information acquisition module is used for acquiring gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source; the cost calculation module is used for calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the gas purchasing information; the purchase simulation module is used for inputting the gas purchase information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchase cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes; and the guiding analysis module is used for comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
Preferably, the information acquisition module includes: the purchase quantity acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the total quantity of the purchased pipeline gas, the online transaction quantity and the LNG consumption in a specified historical time period; the purchase price acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the historical unit price of off-line extra gas, the historical unit price of on-line transaction and the historical unit price of LNG; the consumption calculation submodule is used for subtracting the contract quantity and the online transaction quantity from the total quantity of the pipeline gas to generate the offline additional gas consumption; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the purchased on-line transaction amount, the total LNG amount and the total off-line extra gas amount in the preset time period; and the cost calculation module is specifically used for calculating the cost of the consumption of each gas source and the purchasing cost of the actual gap amount.
Preferably, the simulation cost analysis model specifically includes: the first simulation type is that a purchasing mode which takes online transaction as a main part and takes offline additional outside air as a supplement is adopted to calculate first simulation purchasing cost; the second simulation type is that a purchasing mode which mainly uses online transaction and supplements LNG is adopted to calculate second simulation purchasing cost; a third simulation type, which adopts a purchase mode that LNG is taken as a main part and off-line additional outside air is taken as a supplement, and calculates a third simulation purchase cost; the fourth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all online transactions is adopted to calculate the fourth simulation purchasing cost; and a fifth simulation type, wherein a purchasing mode of using all off-line additional air is adopted to calculate a fifth simulation purchasing cost.
On the other hand, the application discloses a method for guiding the purchase of multiple gas sources; specifically, the method comprises a pre-purchase evaluation step and/or a post-purchase analysis processing step; wherein the pre-procurement evaluation step specifically comprises: collecting the gas demand of each demand side, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract; collecting the current price of each gas source; acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source; based on the gas gap amount, outputting a purchase instruction report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source;
the post-purchase analysis and processing steps specifically comprise: acquiring gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source; calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the gas purchasing information; inputting the gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes; and comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
The application at least comprises the following technical effects:
(1) according to the method and the system, the optimal purchasing channel combination is evaluated through the purchasing evaluation model, and a purchasing instruction report is generated for reference. Under the condition of ensuring that the fuel gas meets the requirements of each molecular company, the purchasing cost is more economical and practical.
(2) The method and the device comprehensively consider various dimensions such as online transaction volume, price of each gas source, LNG gasification capacity and urgency of each gas demand party, generate a very meaningful purchase guidance report by comprehensive consideration analysis and a purchase evaluation model, and provide guidance and reference for subsequent gas purchase.
(3) According to the method and the device, the historical purchase information of each air source is utilized to generate the price trend reference curve of each air source, and the price trend curve of each air source is combined on the basis of the current purchase price of each air source, so that the purchase comprehensive unit price of each air source during subsequent actual purchase is predicted, and the influence of price fluctuation of each air source on the purchase evaluation accuracy is avoided.
(4) In addition to the assessment before purchasing, data analysis processing is carried out after each purchasing, purchasing cost is simulated, a purchasing analysis report is obtained through comparison between the simulated purchasing cost and the actual purchasing cost, whether the purchasing is reasonable or not and whether economic benefits are optimal or not are analyzed, and therefore reference guidance is provided for future purchasing.
(5) Five simulation types are included in the simulation cost analysis model of this application to can calculate the purchase simulation cost of different air supply combinations, and then carry out contrastive analysis with the purchase cost of reality again, thereby can analyze out whether the purchase cost of reality is economical, adopt the purchase mode of which air supply combination more economical under the current situation, the cost is lower, thereby when having similar condition again for next time, provide reference and guide for the purchase of gas.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a gas multi-source procurement guidance system according to an embodiment of the application;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a gas multi-source procurement guidance system according to a third embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a block diagram of a gas multi-source procurement guidance system according to a fourth embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the evaluation steps before gas procurement in the fifth embodiment of the application;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of the analysis processing steps after gas procurement in the fifth embodiment of the application;
FIG. 6 is a diagram of an overall logical framework of a sixth embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a pre-procurement evaluation process in a sixth embodiment of the application;
fig. 8 is a schematic diagram of a post-procurement analysis process in the sixth embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system structures, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art that the present application may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present application with unnecessary detail.
It will be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising," when used in this specification and the appended claims, specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
For the sake of simplicity, the drawings only schematically show the parts relevant to the present application, and they do not represent the actual structure of the product. In addition, in order to make the drawings concise and understandable, components having the same structure or function in some of the drawings are only schematically depicted, or only one of them is labeled. In this document, "one" means not only "only one" but also a case of "more than one".
It should be further understood that the term "and/or" as used in this specification and the appended claims refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
In addition, in the description of the present application, the terms "first", "second", and the like are used only for distinguishing the description, and are not intended to indicate or imply relative importance.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following description will be made with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some examples of the present application, and that for a person skilled in the art, other drawings and other embodiments can be obtained from these drawings without inventive effort.
[ EXAMPLES one ]
The embodiment discloses a purchasing guidance system for a gas multi-gas source; as shown in fig. 1, the present embodiment includes a pre-purchase evaluation device 1000, where the pre-purchase evaluation device 1000 specifically includes:
the demand acquisition module 100 is configured to acquire gas demands of all demand parties and calculate a gas gap amount according to the gas demands and a gas supply contract;
a price collection module 200 for collecting the current price of each gas source;
the historical data analysis module 300 is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source;
and the purchase evaluation module 400 is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source based on the gas gap amount.
Generally, for example, after monthly demands of each molecular company are collected, the monthly gas gap amount of the month can be calculated according to a monthly gas supply contract with an upstream enterprise (such as medium petroleum or medium petrochemical), that is, the gas amount required to be purchased in the month. The supply channels of the gas are various, generally speaking, on-line transaction and off-line transaction, the on-line transaction is auction, upstream enterprises can emit a part of gas quantity every month to auction, and the higher price people can obtain the gas. The maximum trading volume of the monthly online trading is limited and can be obtained by a competitive auction, and if the gas gap quantity is large, the maximum trading volume of the online trading cannot be met, so that the gas is purchased through multiple channels. The off-line transaction is mainly off-line additional outside gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) purchases. The gas purchase prices vary from channel to channel, and generally the price for online transactions is lower than the price for offline transactions, although this is not an absolute case, because online transactions are committed by auction and the price fluctuations are relatively large. Even in offline transactions, the price of gas purchased from the same channel is not necessarily fixed, and the price fluctuates at different times. Therefore, although the gas prices of the current channels can be collected at present, the prices may change when actual purchase is carried out, so that a price trend reference curve made by historical purchase data is also needed to be used as a reference, an optimal purchase channel combination is evaluated through a purchase evaluation model, and a purchase guidance report is generated for reference. Under the condition of ensuring that the fuel gas meets the requirements of each molecular company, the purchasing cost is more economical and practical.
[ example two ]
In this embodiment, on the basis of the first embodiment, the current prices of the gas sources acquired by the information acquisition module specifically include a start price of online gas transaction, an LNG price, and an offline extra gas price; as shown in fig. 3, the purchase evaluation module specifically includes:
the price prediction submodule 410 is used for predicting the LNG purchasing unit price and the online extra gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the currently acquired current price of each gas source;
the transaction evaluation submodule 420 is used for comparing the real-time collected starting price of the online transaction with the LNG purchasing unit price; and determining the purchasing mode of the gas gap amount by combining the gasification supply amount of the LNG according to the comparison result.
Because the purchase price of each air source is not constant, and the current purchase price does not represent the purchase price in the subsequent actual purchase, the price trend reference curve of each air source is generated according to the historical purchase information of each air source, and a comprehensive purchase unit price can be predicted for the purchase price in the subsequent actual purchase according to the current purchase price of each air source, so that the influence of price fluctuation on the purchase evaluation result is reduced.
Specifically, the workflow of the transaction evaluation sub-module is as follows:
s10, comparing whether the starting price of the online transaction is less than the LNG purchasing unit price, if yes, entering a step S20, otherwise, entering a step S30;
s20, monitoring the auction price of the online transaction in real time, and entering the step S30 if the auction price of the online transaction is higher than the LNG purchasing unit price; if the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG purchasing unit price and the auction price is medium, the step S40 is executed;
s30, judging whether the LNG gasification supply quantity meets the gas gap quantity, if so, entering a step S31, otherwise, entering a step S32;
s31, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas gap amount;
and S32, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the LNG gasification supply amount, and purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the LNG gasification supply amount.
S40, judging whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount, if so, entering a step S41, otherwise, entering a step S42;
s41, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas by an online transaction mode according to the gas gap amount;
and S42, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, purchasing the gas in an offline transaction mode.
The LNG vaporization capacity is the vaporization supply amount of the LNG. LNG stations are used to convert LNG to gaseous natural gas, and the gasification capacity is the maximum amount of gas that can be provided in a cycle (gasification supply). Because the LNG is limited by the gasification capacity of the LNG, even if the purchase unit price of the LNG is low, the LNG cannot be purchased in a full-scale manner, so that the gas supply of each gas demand party cannot be met.
Further, if the gas gap amount is relatively large, even if it is determined that online transaction is preferentially adopted for gas purchasing, and if the online transaction cannot meet the gas gap amount purchasing, after the online transaction gas purchasing is completed, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the gas gap amount and the actual transaction amount of the online transaction, and generating an offline purchasing gap amount; the part of off-line purchase gap amount needs to be purchased in an off-line transaction mode, a common off-line transaction comprises off-line additional gas and LNG purchase, and the off-line purchase gap amount generally selects which gas source to purchase according to the current off-line price. Specifically, after comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the offline additional gas, the transaction evaluation sub-module selects an air source with a lower unit price as a purchasing object of the offline purchasing gap amount, and generates a second guidance report.
Preferably, regarding online trading, since the online trading volume is generally limited and the urgency of the demand of each demanding party for gas is different, it is generally preferred to have the demanding party with higher urgency (such as the following high-urgency molecular company) compete. That is, the purchase evaluation module 400 further includes: and the auction determining submodule 430 is used for calculating the gas demand urgency coefficient of each gas demand party and selecting the gas demand party with the highest gas demand urgency coefficient as the auction party. The gas demand urgency coefficient is used for measuring the urgency of each gas demand party to the gas demand, and can be realized by adopting the following calculation formula:
wherein:
c: a gas demand urgency coefficient;
g: the gas gap amount;
l: the supply of LNG for vaporization.
[ EXAMPLE III ]
As shown in fig. 2, on the basis of the first embodiment or the second embodiment, the gas multi-gas-source purchasing instruction system of this embodiment further includes:
post-purchase analysis processing means 2000; the method comprises the following steps:
the information acquisition module 500 is used for acquiring gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source;
the cost calculation module 600 is configured to calculate an actual purchasing cost within the specified historical time period according to the gas purchasing information;
the purchasing simulation module 700 is used for inputting the gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes;
and a guidance analysis module 800, configured to compare the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generate a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
The gas multi-gas-source purchasing guidance system provided by the embodiment is characterized in that the evaluation device before purchasing is used, and after each purchasing, the analysis device after purchasing is used for analyzing to obtain a purchasing analysis report, and whether the purchasing is reasonable or not and whether the economic benefit is optimal or not are analyzed, so that reference guidance is provided for later purchasing.
[ EXAMPLE IV ]
In this embodiment, on the basis of the third embodiment, as shown in fig. 3, the information collecting module 500 includes:
the purchase quantity acquisition submodule 510 is used for acquiring the total quantity of the pipeline gas purchased in the appointed historical time period, the online transaction quantity and the LNG usage quantity;
such as total pipeline gas purchased, on-line transaction volume, and LNG usage over the past month; one part of the total amount of pipeline gas is purchased through a previous gas supply contract, the other part is purchased through an online transaction, and in addition, the other part of the total amount of pipeline gas can be purchased off-line extra gas. The LNG is liquefied petroleum gas, and the consumption of the LNG is not in the total amount of the pipeline gas. Because the gas supply contract is usually only an estimated monthly demand supply contract, which is generally smaller than the actual monthly demand, the gas gap amount of the gap is generally purchased in an online transaction or an offline transaction.
A purchase price acquisition submodule 520 for acquiring an offline extra gas historical unit price, an online transaction historical unit price and an LNG historical unit price;
specifically, from the statistical historical purchasing data, the purchasing amount and purchasing price of the gas purchased through each channel in a specified historical time period (for example, the last month or the last year) can be obtained.
A usage calculation submodule 530, configured to subtract the contract quantity and the online transaction quantity from the total amount of the pipeline gas, and generate an offline additional gas usage; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the purchased on-line transaction amount, the total LNG amount and the total off-line extra gas amount in the preset time period;
specifically, the online transaction amount is the actual transaction amount of the online transaction, and the total amount of the pipeline gas is composed of the contract amount, the online transaction amount and the offline additional gas amount, so that after the total pipeline gas amount, the online transaction amount and the contract amount are collected, the purchased offline additional gas amount can be calculated. And further how much the actual amount of notching is.
The cost calculating module 600 is specifically configured to calculate the cost of each gas source usage and the purchasing cost of the actual gap amount.
Specifically, the actual gap amount is the sum of the actual demand amount minus the contract amount, that is, the total amount of actual purchases in the online transaction mode and the offline transaction mode every month except the monthly contract planned in the beginning of the year.
Preferably, the simulation cost analysis model specifically includes:
the first simulation type is that a purchasing mode which takes online transaction as a main part and takes offline additional outside air as a supplement is adopted to calculate first simulation purchasing cost; this type preferably uses online transactions, with the online transaction deficiency using offline excess gas. The amount traded online is the amount actually auctioned in the month or year. The off-line amount of extra gas is the amount of gap (actual gap) minus the amount of on-line transactions.
And the second simulation type adopts a purchase mode that the online transaction is taken as the main and the LNG is taken as the supplement to calculate the second simulation purchase cost. This type preferably uses an online transaction that is short of partially purchasing LNG to replenish. The amount traded online is the amount actually auctioned in the month or year. The LNG purchase amount is the gap amount minus the online transaction amount.
A third simulation type, which adopts a purchase mode that LNG is taken as a main part and off-line additional outside air is taken as a supplement, and calculates a third simulation purchase cost; LNG is preferentially used, and the insufficient part uses off-line extra gas. If the gap amount is larger than or equal to the LNG gasification capacity, the using amount of the LNG is equal to the LNG gasification capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG gasification capacity; if the amount of the gap is smaller than the LNG gasification capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the amount of the gap, and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero.
The fourth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all online transactions is adopted to calculate the fourth simulation purchasing cost; that is, the gap amount is all in online transaction, and the maximum transaction amount of online transaction at this time is greater than or equal to the gap amount, so that the gas of the gap amount is all purchased and accounted in the online transaction manner at this time.
And a fifth simulation type, wherein a purchasing mode of using all off-line additional air is adopted to calculate a fifth simulation purchasing cost. The amount of the gap is equal to the amount of the gap by using off-line extra gas.
Through above-mentioned five kinds of simulation types, can calculate the purchase analog cost of different air supply combinations, and then carry out contrastive analysis with actual purchase cost again to can analyze out whether actual purchase cost is economic, adopt which kind of air supply combination's purchase mode more reasonable under the current situation, the cost is lower, thereby when having similar condition again for the next time, provide reference and guide for the purchase of gas.
[ EXAMPLE V ]
The embodiment discloses a method for guiding the purchase of a plurality of gas sources; specifically, the method comprises a pre-purchase evaluation step and/or a post-purchase analysis processing step; wherein,
the pre-procurement evaluation step is shown in fig. 4, and specifically includes:
s101, collecting the gas demand of each demand side, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and gas supply contract;
s102, collecting the current price of each gas source;
s103, acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in the historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source;
s104, outputting a purchase instruction report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current prices of the gas sources and the price trend reference curves of the gas sources based on the gas gap amount;
the post-procurement analysis processing steps, as shown in fig. 5, specifically include:
s201, acquiring gas purchasing information in a designated historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source;
s202, calculating actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the gas purchasing information;
s203, inputting the gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes;
and S204, comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
The embodiment can evaluate and analyze the purchase through the purchase evaluation model to obtain a purchase guide report; the purchasing information after each purchasing can be analyzed and processed to obtain a purchasing analysis report, and whether the purchasing is reasonable or not and whether the economic benefit is optimal or not are analyzed, so that reference guidance is provided for future purchasing.
Preferably, the purchasing channel of each gas source comprises online transaction, offline extra gas purchasing and LNG purchasing; the step S104 specifically includes:
s1041, predicting LNG purchasing unit price and off-line extra gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the current price of each gas source collected currently;
s1042, comparing whether the starting price of the online transaction is smaller than the LNG purchasing unit price, if so, entering a step S1043, otherwise, entering a step S1044;
s1043, monitoring the auction price of the online transaction in real time, and if the auction price of the online transaction is higher than the LNG purchasing unit price, entering the step S1044; if the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG purchasing unit price and the auction price is medium, the step S1047 is executed;
s1044, judging whether the gasification supply amount of the LNG meets the gas gap amount, if so, entering a step S1045, otherwise, entering a step S1046;
s1045, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas gap amount;
and S1046, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gasification supply amount of the LNG, and purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the gasification supply amount of the LNG.
S1047, judging whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount, if so, entering a step S1048, otherwise, entering a step S1049;
s1048, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the gas gap amount;
and S1049, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, in an offline transaction mode.
Further, if the gas gap amount is relatively large, even if it is determined that the online transaction is preferentially adopted for gas purchasing, if the online transaction cannot meet the gas gap amount purchasing, after the gas purchasing of the online transaction is completed, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the gas gap amount and an actual transaction amount of the online transaction, generating an offline purchasing gap amount, and then comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the offline purchasing unit price of the external gas, and selecting a gas source with a lower unit price as a purchasing object of the offline purchasing gap amount.
Regarding online trading, because the online trading volume is generally limited and the urgency of the demand of each demand party for gas is also different, it is common to have a higher urgency demand party (such as the following high-urgency molecular companies) to compete. That is, the urgency of each gas demand is first measured by quantitative calculation. In this embodiment, the urgency degree can be measured by the gas demand urgency coefficient, and the higher the gas demand urgency coefficient is, the higher the urgency degree is, and generally, the gas demand party with the highest gas demand urgency coefficient is preferentially selected as the auction party. Regarding the gas demand urgency coefficient, the following calculation formula can be adopted:
wherein:
c: a gas demand urgency coefficient;
g: the gas gap amount;
l: the supply of LNG for vaporization.
In the post-purchase analysis processing step, step S201 specifically includes:
s2011, acquiring the total amount of purchased pipeline gas, the online transaction amount and the LNG usage amount in a specified historical time period;
s2012, acquiring the historical unit price of off-line extra gas, the historical unit price of on-line transaction and the historical unit price of LNG;
s2013, subtracting the contract quantity and the online transaction quantity from the total amount of the pipeline gas to generate the offline extra gas consumption; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the purchased on-line transaction amount, the total LNG amount and the total off-line extra gas amount in the preset time period;
the step S202 specifically includes:
and S2021, calculating the cost of the using amount of each gas source and the purchasing cost of the actual gap amount.
In the analysis processing step after purchase, the adopted simulation cost analysis model comprises five simulation types, specifically:
the first simulation type is that a purchasing mode which takes online transaction as a main part and takes offline additional outside air as a supplement is adopted to calculate first simulation purchasing cost; this type preferably uses online transactions, with the online transaction deficiency using offline excess gas. The online transaction amount is the amount of the actual auction in the month or year. The off-line amount of extra gas is the amount of gap (actual gap) minus the amount of on-line transactions.
And the second simulation type adopts a purchase mode that the online transaction is taken as the main and the LNG is taken as the supplement to calculate the second simulation purchase cost. This type preferably uses an online transaction that is short of partially purchasing LNG to replenish. The amount traded online is the amount actually auctioned in the month or year. The LNG purchase amount is the gap amount minus the online transaction amount.
A third simulation type, which adopts a purchase mode that LNG is taken as a main part and off-line additional outside air is taken as a supplement, and calculates a third simulation purchase cost; LNG is preferentially used, and the insufficient part uses off-line extra gas. If the gap amount is larger than or equal to the LNG gasification capacity, the using amount of the LNG is equal to the LNG gasification capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG gasification capacity; if the amount of the gap is smaller than the LNG gasification capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the amount of the gap, and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero.
The fourth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all online transactions is adopted to calculate the fourth simulation purchasing cost; that is, the gap amount is all in online transaction, and the maximum transaction amount of online transaction at this time is greater than or equal to the gap amount, so that the gas of the gap amount is all purchased and accounted in the online transaction manner at this time.
And a fifth simulation type, wherein a purchasing mode of using all off-line additional air is adopted to calculate a fifth simulation purchasing cost. The amount of the gap is equal to the amount of the gap by using off-line extra gas.
Through above-mentioned five kinds of simulation types, can calculate the purchase analog cost of different air supply combinations, and then carry out contrastive analysis with actual purchase cost again to can analyze out whether actual purchase cost is economic, adopt which kind of air supply combination's purchase mode more reasonable under the current situation, the cost is lower, thereby when having similar condition again for the next time, provide reference and guide for the purchase of gas.
[ EXAMPLE six ]
This embodiment is divided into two parts, as shown in FIG. 6, which are pre-procurement assessment and post-procurement analysis processes, respectively. And the pre-purchase evaluation is to comprehensively evaluate the cost of each gas source in the next month, and a purchase strategy is formulated and purchase is implemented by combining the demand and the gap of each molecular company. The post-purchase analysis processing is to analyze the cost of the completed purchase, compare and analyze the actual cost with each combined assumed cost, and then provide data support for the subsequent pre-purchase evaluation.
Collecting monthly requirements of each molecular company in each month; then, a monthly gap is formed according to the monthly demand and the monthly contract; the natural gas company acquires the LNG price according to the gap amount to obtain the comprehensive unit price of the LNG; in addition, online transaction information including gas amount and unit price is obtained; an auction strategy is formulated according to the LNG price and the online transaction price; gas purchasing and supplying are carried out according to the actual gas supply requirement; after monthly or annual gas source cost is formed, different gas source combinations are simulated according to the price and the gas supply quantity of each gas source, actual purchasing cost and simulation cost are compared, monthly or annual gas purchasing cost evaluation analysis is formed, monthly or annual purchasing economic benefit is evaluated, and guidance is provided for future purchasing; meanwhile, the price trend analysis of each air source is formed, and the auction strategy is formulated in an auxiliary mode.
Assessment before purchase:
the evaluation before purchasing is mainly to evaluate the purchasing cost of three gas sources, namely online transaction, offline additional external gas and LNG, so as to make a purchasing strategy of each gas source. For the three air sources, the cost contrast of the online transaction and the offline additional air is relatively fixed, the offline additional air is higher than the online transaction, and the multiple of the online additional air is relatively fixed. Therefore, the cost comparison of the three gas sources is converted into two steps, as shown in fig. 7, the first step is the comparison of online transaction and LNG, a gap amount is formed according to monthly demand and contract amount of each molecular company, a preliminary transaction strategy is made according to the starting price and the LNG unit price before online transaction based on the gap amount, and the transaction strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the auction price trend in the online transaction; and the second step is the comparison of the off-line additional gas and the LNG, a new gap amount is formed after the on-line transaction is finished, and a transaction strategy is formulated by comparing the unit price of the LNG and the unit price of the off-line additional gas.
The online transaction is an auction process, and auction bidding is carried out by each gas company in a fixed time period, and the final transaction price can be obtained only after the transaction. Therefore, the step is also divided into two processes, wherein the first process is to compare the price of the on-line transaction (including the transportation fee) and the unit price of the LNG before the on-line transaction, and make a preliminary transaction strategy; the second process is that in the trade, the strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the auction price trend. Specifically, three cases are provided:
(1) the price of the beat is less than the unit price of LNG, and in this case, the cost of using the online transaction is lower than that of using LNG, so the online transaction is prioritized. But the online transaction cannot be purchased at the auction price, so during the auction process, the transaction strategy is dynamically adjusted according to the current actual price trend, and when the auction price is higher than the unit price of LNG, the LNG is preferentially used. In this case, attention is paid to the LNG vaporization capacity of each molecular company, and an online transaction is required for a portion having insufficient vaporization capacity (i.e., a difference between the notch amount and the LNG vaporization capacity).
(2) The price of the beat is more than the unit price of the LNG, in this case, the cost of using the LNG is lower than that of the on-line transaction, so the LNG is preferentially used, and the part with insufficient LNG gasification capacity needs to be on-line transaction.
(3) This strategy is the same as the second case, since no on-line transactions are possible to purchase at the beat price.
When the auction price and the unit price of the LNG are concerned, the urgency level of each subsidiary company also needs to be concerned, and since the online transaction limits the total amount and the auction is more intense, the subsidiary companies with high urgency level need to auction. The degree of urgency is determined by the amount of gap and the gasification capacity of LNG, and is defined as an urgency coefficient, and the calculation formula is as follows, and the larger the calculation value is, the more urgent the calculation value is.
Formula 1 coefficient of urgency
C: coefficient of urgency
G: amount of chipping
L: LNG vaporization capacity
After the online transaction is completed, a new gap amount is created, and the source of this gap amount includes LNG and offline additional gas. At the moment, the unit price of off-line additional gas and the unit price of LNG are determined, the unit prices of the two gas sources are compared, and a purchasing strategy is made by combining the gap amount and the LNG gasification capacity.
Analyzing and processing after purchase:
the post-purchase analysis process is to perform accounting on completed monthly or annual purchase costs, and the accounting objects include groups and molecular companies. On the basis of the actual cost, the cost of different combination modes of all the gas sources is simulated, the cost is compared with the actual cost, and the economic benefit of the actual gas source combination is evaluated and analyzed. As shown in fig. 8, the post-purchase analysis processing flow first obtains the total amount of pipeline gas, the total amount of on-line transaction, and the total amount of LNG of each molecular company, and subtracts the synthetic amount from the pipeline gas and then subtracts the amount of off-line extra gas generated by the on-line transaction; then acquiring the unit price of off-line extra gas, the unit price of on-line transaction and the unit price of LNG; then generating the gas source consumption and the gap cost of the group and each molecular company; therefore, the cost is compared with five simulation costs of type A, B, C, D, E, and evaluation analysis after purchase is carried out; and finally comparing the actual cost with each simulation cost, and guiding the next-stage purchase.
The simulation types are divided into five types in total:
type A
The online transaction is preferentially used, and the part with insufficient online transaction uses the off-line extra gas. The amount traded online is the actual amount used in the month or year, consistent with the amount in the cost accounting. The off-line amount of extra gas is the amount of gap minus the amount of on-line transactions. The unit price of the online transaction and the unit price of the offline additional air are consistent with the unit price in the cost accounting of the same evaluation type.
Type B
The online transaction is preferentially used, and the online transaction amount, namely the actual usage amount, is consistent with the usage amount in the cost accounting; the LNG is preferentially used in the rest part of the gap amount, and each company has LNG gasification capacity, if the gasification capacity of the rest part is insufficient, the off-line extra gas is used. The unit price of each gas source is consistent with the unit price in the cost accounting.
Type C
LNG is preferentially used, and the insufficient part uses off-line extra gas. If the gap amount is larger than or equal to the LNG gasification capacity, the using amount of the LNG is equal to the LNG gasification capacity, and the off-line extra gas is equal to the gap amount minus the LNG gasification capacity; if the amount of the gap is smaller than the LNG gasification capacity, the LNG usage amount is equal to the amount of the gap, and the off-line extra gas is equal to zero. The unit price of LNG and the unit price of off-line additional gas are both kept consistent with the unit price in the cost accounting.
Type D
The gap amount is all used for online trading, and the online trading amount is equal to the gap amount. The unit price of the online transaction is consistent with the unit price in the cost accounting.
Type E
The gap amount is equal to the gap amount and the unit price is equal to the unit price in the cost accounting.
While the preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, additional variations and modifications in those embodiments may occur to those skilled in the art once they learn of the basic inventive concepts. Therefore, it is intended that the appended claims be interpreted as including preferred embodiments and all alterations and modifications as fall within the scope of the application.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present application without departing from the spirit and scope of the application. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the claims of the present application and their equivalents, the present application is intended to include such modifications and variations as well.
Claims (10)
1. The utility model provides a purchase guidance system of many air supplies of gas which characterized in that still includes:
pre-procurement evaluation apparatus comprising:
the demand acquisition module is used for acquiring the gas demand of each demand party and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract;
the price acquisition module is used for acquiring the current price of each gas source;
the historical data analysis module is used for acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in the historical purchase data and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source;
and the purchase evaluation module is used for outputting a purchase guidance report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source based on the gas gap amount.
2. The system for guiding the procurement of a plurality of gas sources as recited in claim 1,
the current prices of the gas sources acquired by the information acquisition module specifically comprise a start price, an LNG price and an off-line extra gas price of on-line gas transaction;
the purchase evaluation module specifically comprises:
the price prediction submodule is used for predicting the LNG purchasing unit price and the off-line extra gas purchasing unit price during purchasing according to the price trend reference curve of each gas source and the currently acquired current price of each gas source;
the transaction evaluation submodule is used for comparing the real-time collected starting price of the online transaction with the LNG purchasing unit price; and determining the purchasing mode of the gas gap amount by combining the gasification supply amount of the LNG according to the comparison result.
3. The system of claim 2, wherein the procurement evaluation module further comprises:
the auction determination submodule is used for calculating the gas demand urgent coefficient of each gas demand party and selecting the gas demand party with the highest gas demand urgent coefficient as an auction party;
the calculation formula of the gas demand urgency coefficient is as follows:
wherein:
c: a gas demand urgency coefficient;
g: the gas gap amount;
l: the supply of LNG for vaporization.
4. The system of claim 2, wherein the transaction evaluation sub-module is configured to further determine whether the LNG gasification supply amount meets the gas gap amount when the start price of the online transaction is greater than or equal to the LNG purchase unit price, and if so, generate a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gas gap amount; and if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the LNG according to the gasification supply quantity of the LNG, and purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the difference value between the gas gap quantity and the gasification supply quantity of the LNG.
5. The gas multi-gas-source purchasing guidance system according to claim 2, wherein the transaction evaluation sub-module is further configured to, when the start price of the online transaction is less than the LNG purchasing unit price, and the auction price of the online transaction is lower than the LNG purchasing unit price and is intermediately auction, further determine whether the transaction amount of the online transaction meets the gas gap amount, and if so, generate a preliminary guidance report for purchasing gas in an online transaction manner according to the gas gap amount; if not, generating a preliminary guidance report for purchasing the gas in an online transaction mode according to the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, and according to the difference value between the gas gap amount and the maximum transaction amount of the online transaction, purchasing the gas in an offline transaction mode.
6. The system of claim 5, further comprising:
after the gas purchasing of the online transaction is finished, the demand acquisition module is further used for calculating a difference value between the gas gap amount and the actual transaction amount of the online transaction to generate an offline purchasing gap amount;
and the transaction evaluation submodule is also used for comparing the LNG purchasing unit price with the purchasing unit price of the off-line additional gas, selecting a gas source with lower unit price as a purchasing object of the off-line purchasing gap amount, and generating a second guidance report.
7. The system of claim 1, further comprising:
a post-purchase analysis processing device; the method comprises the following steps:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source;
the cost calculation module is used for calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the gas purchasing information;
the purchase simulation module is used for inputting the gas purchase information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchase cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes;
and the guiding analysis module is used for comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the information collection module comprises:
the purchase quantity acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the total quantity of the purchased pipeline gas, the online transaction quantity and the LNG consumption in a specified historical time period;
the purchase price acquisition submodule is used for acquiring the historical unit price of off-line extra gas, the historical unit price of on-line transaction and the historical unit price of LNG;
the consumption calculation submodule is used for subtracting the contract quantity and the online transaction quantity from the total quantity of the pipeline gas to generate the offline additional gas consumption; calculating the actual gap amount in the preset time period; the actual gap amount is the purchased on-line transaction amount, the total LNG amount and the total off-line extra gas amount in the preset time period;
and the cost calculation module is specifically used for calculating the cost of the consumption of each gas source and the purchasing cost of the actual gap amount.
9. The system of claim 7, wherein the simulation cost analysis model specifically comprises:
the first simulation type is that a purchasing mode which takes online transaction as a main part and takes offline additional outside air as a supplement is adopted to calculate first simulation purchasing cost;
the second simulation type is that a purchasing mode which mainly uses online transaction and supplements LNG is adopted to calculate second simulation purchasing cost;
a third simulation type, which adopts a purchase mode that LNG is taken as a main part and off-line additional outside air is taken as a supplement, and calculates a third simulation purchase cost;
the fourth simulation type is that a purchasing mode of all online transactions is adopted to calculate the fourth simulation purchasing cost;
and a fifth simulation type, wherein a purchasing mode of using all off-line additional air is adopted to calculate a fifth simulation purchasing cost.
10. A method for guiding the purchase of multiple gas sources in fuel gas is characterized by comprising the following steps: a pre-purchase evaluation step and/or a post-purchase analysis processing step; wherein,
the pre-purchase evaluation step specifically comprises:
collecting the gas demand of each demand side, and calculating the gas gap amount according to the gas demand and the gas supply contract;
collecting the current price of each gas source;
acquiring the purchase unit price of each gas source in historical purchase data, and generating a price trend reference curve of each gas source;
based on the gas gap amount, outputting a purchase instruction report through a purchase evaluation model according to the current price of each gas source and the price trend reference curve of each gas source;
the post-purchase analysis and processing steps specifically comprise:
acquiring gas purchasing information in a specified historical time period; the gas purchasing information comprises the purchasing quantity of each gas source and the purchasing unit price of each gas source;
calculating the actual purchasing cost in the appointed historical time period according to the gas purchasing information;
inputting the gas purchasing information into a simulation cost analysis model to obtain simulation purchasing cost; the simulation cost analysis model is used for simulating and calculating the cost of each gas source in different combination modes;
and comparing the simulated purchasing cost with the actual purchasing cost, and generating a purchasing analysis report according to the comparison result.
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