CN112487639A - Method for determining life cycle risk level of urban underground space by using fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of risk management of urban underground space engineering, and particularly relates to an evaluation method for determining life cycle risk level of an urban underground space by using a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model. The technical scheme of the invention comprises the following steps: (1) according to the life cycle theory of engineering construction projects, on the basis of systematic, comprehensive, objective and concise principles, constructing an urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system; (2) establishing a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model of the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to a gray system and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory; (3) and determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by adopting an improved maximum membership principle according to a calculation result obtained by the life cycle risk level evaluation model of the urban underground space. The method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model has the advantages of wide application range, simple principle, convenience in use and good reliability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of risk management of urban underground space engineering, and particularly relates to an evaluation method for determining life cycle risk level of an urban underground space by using a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model.
Background
The underground space is used as a limited natural resource, the construction period is long, the underground space is difficult to reverse once being developed, risk factors in different stages are different, the management difficulty is high, and risk events affecting social, economic and environmental benefits are frequent. The existing risk assessment of the underground space in China usually focuses on risks during construction, has little consideration on the coupling action among early construction, operation and maintenance, ecological recovery and various risks, and can not meet the actual requirements of continuous innovation of urban underground space construction and management modes and continuous improvement of engineering quality requirements of economic and social development. Therefore, according to the life cycle concept of the engineering construction project, under the coupling action of various types of risks, an evaluation method for the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space is established, and the deviation degree of the actual condition of project management and the expected management target is very necessary to evaluate in the life cycle.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of an urban underground space by using a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model, which has the advantages of wide application range, simple principle, convenience in use and good reliability.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
the method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model comprises the following steps:
(1) constructing an urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system: based on systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and conciseness, according to the principle that indexes are mutually independent and not correlated, the evaluation indexes in the aspect of life cycle risk management of the urban underground space are optimized, and an evaluation index system is established;
(2) establishing a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model of the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to a gray system and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory: inviting experts in the industry, scoring the evaluation indexes according to the actual conditions of the project and the risk evaluation matrix, and determining an evaluation sample; determining a fuzzy relation matrix of an evaluation sample through a sine type whitening weight function according to a grey system theory; determining a fuzzy weight vector by an entropy weight method according to the variation degree of each index information entropy; performing multi-factor fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation by adopting a weighted average fuzzy synthesis operator to determine a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector;
(3) determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space: and determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by adopting an improved maximum membership principle according to a calculation result obtained by the fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation model.
Further, in the evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model, in the step (1), the specific steps of constructing the life cycle risk level evaluation index system of the urban underground space are as follows:
1) the evaluation target is determined according to the construction and management current situation and the compliance development trend of the urban underground space;
2) according to the principles of systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and conciseness and the life cycle theory of engineering construction projects, life cycle risks of the urban underground space are divided into risks in the early construction period, the operation and maintenance period and the recovery period, and a green building concept is integrated to form 28 evaluation indexes related to the evaluation of life cycle risk levels of the urban underground space.
Further, in the evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model, in the step (2), the specific steps of establishing the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model for the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space are as follows:
a) inviting experts in the industry, scoring evaluation indexes according to the risk evaluation matrix and the actual conditions of the to-be-evaluated project of the urban underground space, and determining an evaluation sample;
b) determining a fuzzy relation matrix of an evaluation sample through a sine type whitening weight function;
c) determining a fuzzy weight vector according to the variation degree of each index information entropy by using an entropy weight method;
d) and solving a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector by a weighted average fuzzy synthesis operator.
Further, in the evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model, in the step (3), the specific step of determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space is as follows:
i) sorting the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation calculation results;
II) determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to the improved maximum membership principle.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. on the basis of the current situation of urban underground space construction and management, the method disclosed by the invention integrates the characteristics of green buildings according to the life cycle concept of the engineering construction project, solves the risk management problem of the urban underground space project under the coupling action of different types of risk factors, and meets the development requirement of modern urban construction.
2. According to the method, risk management key points of urban underground space projects in the early construction period, the operation and maintenance period and the ecological restoration period are comprehensively considered, the integral requirement of underground space development is considered, the stage requirement can be considered, and the construction of an evaluation index system is more objective and reasonable;
3. the method depends on the review opinions of a plurality of experts in the industry, takes the construction of a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model based on a sinusoidal whitening weight function as a core, adopts a method combining qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, reduces the adverse effect of subjective factors, improves the attribute of an evaluation object to gray, can objectively reflect the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space project, and ensures the accuracy of an evaluation result;
4. according to the fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation calculation result, the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space project is determined by adopting the principle of improving the maximum membership degree, the principle is simple, the method applicability is strong, and the current risk management situation of the urban underground space project can be well reflected.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining a life cycle risk level of an urban underground space using a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model;
FIG. 2 is a series of charts of life cycle risk rating evaluation indexes for an urban underground space;
fig. 3 is a sinusoidal whitening weight function diagram.
Detailed Description
The invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The urban underground space for which the method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space provided by the invention is aimed at is as follows: the spaces below the surface of the earth in the urban planning region include the types of businesses such as underground traffic, underground commerce, underground parking, underground municipal works and the like. The evaluation process integrates the characteristics of green buildings according to the life cycle concept, comprehensively considers the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space project under the coupling action of various types of risks, and further objectively evaluates the deviation degree of the actual condition of the project from the expected management target.
As shown in the attached figure 1, the detailed steps of the invention are as follows:
1. step 101: constructing an urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system;
(1) determining design goals for an evaluation System
Based on the existing regulations, the method conforms to the development of the era, integrates the characteristics of green buildings according to the life cycle concept of engineering construction projects, is based on systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and simplicity, and takes the coupling effect of multiple risk factors in the life cycle of urban underground space projects, such as underground traffic, underground commerce, underground parking, underground municipal administration and the like into consideration, so as to preferably select evaluation indexes in the aspect of life cycle risk management of the urban underground space under the condition that the indexes are mutually independent and not related, thereby improving the systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and simplicity of the evaluation method.
(2) Construction of urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system
According to the life cycle theory and in combination with related documents, the urban underground space life cycle risk is divided into the risk of the early construction period, the operation and maintenance period and the recovery period, and the characteristics of green buildings are integrated to obtain an urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system, which is shown in an attached figure 2.
2. Step 102: establishing an urban underground space life cycle risk grade evaluation model, determining an evaluation sample through expert scoring, determining a fuzzy relation matrix based on a sine type whitening weight function, determining a fuzzy weight vector through an entropy weight method, and determining a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation result vector through a weighted average type fuzzy synthesis operator.
(1) Determination of evaluation samples
Assuming that m samples are provided, each sample has n evaluation indexes, and each index has s gray classes, the evaluation sample matrix D ═ xij](i-1, 2, …, m; j-1, 2, …, n) represents the observed value of the ith sample for the jth index.
According to the life cycle risk theory, a risk evaluation matrix is constructed, the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space is set to be I-V level from high to low, the I-V level corresponds to 5-1 points respectively, and the risk evaluation matrix is used for quantifying the deviation degree of the management target and is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation matrix
And inviting 10 experts in the industry, and scoring each index according to the risk assessment matrix and the actual situation of the urban underground space project to obtain a sample matrix D and an expert scoring table shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 Life cycle risk rating evaluation index system and expert scoring table
(2) Determining a fuzzy relation matrix by a sinusoidal whitening weight function
The life cycle risk grade of the urban underground space is divided into five ash classes, wherein k is 1,2, 3, 4 and 5, the five ash classes respectively correspond to the V-I classes of the life cycle risk grade, and the value range of each ash class is shown in a table 3.
TABLE 3 evaluation index Gray value Range
Assuming that the maximum possible value-taking point of the gray class k is the central point λ of the gray classk(k is 1,2, …, s), the range of the index j belonging to the gray class k is [ lambda ]k-1,λk+1]The left end of gray class 1 and the right end of gray class s are extended to obtain a new sequence of centers, as shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4 sequence listing of center points
the functional image is shown in figure 3.
Sample values of 28 indexes are sequentially substituted into equations (1) to (3) to construct a fuzzy relation matrix R for evaluating life cycle risk level of urban underground space
Wherein r isjk(j-1, 2, …, n; k-1, 2, …, s) represents a certain object to be evaluated as a measure of the evaluation index qjSee the degree of membership to gray class k.
(3) Determining fuzzy weight vector
The index weight is determined by using the information entropy according to the variation degree of each index, the result is objective, and the calculation process is as follows:
1) calculating the proportion p of the ith sample in the j indexij
2) Calculating the entropy e of the jth indexj
Wherein, t is 1/ln (n)>0, satisfies ej≥0；
3) Computing information entropy redundancy dj
dj＝1-ej,(j＝1,2,...,n) (6)
4) Calculating the weight a of each indexj
The sample matrix D is substituted for expressions (4) to (7), and the weight of each evaluation index is obtained.
(4) Fuzzy synthesis operation
Obtaining a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector B ═ (B) by a weighted average type synthesis operator (+ -)1,b2,…,bs)。
Wherein, bkThe degree of membership of the evaluated sample to the gray class k as a whole is indicated.
And (4) substituting the index weight and the fuzzy relation matrix R into an expression (8) to obtain a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector B of the evaluated object.
3. Step 103: determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space, and determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to the table 3 by adopting the principle of improving the maximum membership degree according to the calculation result obtained by the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model.
(1) Introduction of an effectiveness index
And introducing an effectiveness index alpha, and processing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result by adopting an improved maximum membership principle.
Wherein g is the element number of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector B; beta and gamma are the values of the largest and second largest elements in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector B, respectively.
(2) Determining the evaluation result
When alpha is less than 0.5, the maximum membership rule fails, the maximum membership rule is improved by taking the distance H between the sample value and the average investigation sample as a standard, the sample with the maximum distance is removed in sequence, and the effectiveness index is recalculated; if alpha is reduced after the elimination, the sample is retained until alpha is more than or equal to 0.5.
xiScoring samples for experts with the same indexA value; y isiAnd (5) scoring the average value of experts with the same index.
If b isl＝max{bkAnd (k is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to s), the evaluated object generally belongs to the l-th grade, and the life cycle risk grade of the urban underground space project is the grade corresponding to the table 3.
Claims (4)
1. The method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
(1) constructing an urban underground space life cycle risk level evaluation index system: based on systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and conciseness, selecting indexes in the aspect of life cycle risk management of the urban underground space preferably according to the principle that the indexes are mutually independent and not correlated, and establishing an evaluation index system;
(2) establishing a fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model of the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to a gray system and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory: inviting experts in the industry, scoring the evaluation indexes according to the actual conditions of the project and the risk evaluation matrix, and determining an evaluation sample; determining a fuzzy relation matrix through a sine type whitening weight function according to a grey system theory; determining a fuzzy weight vector by an entropy weight method; performing multi-factor fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation by adopting a weighted average fuzzy synthesis operator to determine a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector;
(3) determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space: and determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by adopting an improved maximum membership principle according to a calculation result obtained by the fuzzy grey comprehensive evaluation model.
2. The method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step (1), the specific steps of constructing the life cycle risk level evaluation index system of the urban underground space are as follows:
1) determining a design target of a life cycle risk level evaluation system of the urban underground space according to the construction and management current situation and the compliance development trend of the urban underground space;
2) according to the principles of systematicness, comprehensiveness, objectivity and conciseness and according to the life cycle theory of engineering construction projects, life cycle risks of the urban underground space are divided into risks in the early construction period, the operation and maintenance period and the recovery period, and a green building concept is integrated, so that 28 evaluation indexes for evaluating life cycle risk levels of the urban underground space are formed.
3. The evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step (2), the specific steps of establishing the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model for the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space are as follows:
a) inviting experts in the industry, scoring evaluation indexes according to the risk evaluation matrix and the actual conditions of the to-be-evaluated project of the urban underground space, and determining an evaluation sample;
b) determining a fuzzy relation matrix of an evaluation sample through a sine type whitening weight function;
c) determining a fuzzy weight vector according to the variation degree of each index information entropy by using an entropy weight method;
d) and solving a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector by a weighted average fuzzy synthesis operator.
4. The evaluation method for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space by using the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation model as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step (3), the specific steps for determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space are as follows:
i) sorting the fuzzy gray comprehensive evaluation calculation results;
II) determining the life cycle risk level of the urban underground space according to the improved maximum membership principle.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN116701878A (en) * | 2023-07-05 | 2023-09-05 | 华南理工大学 | Risk prediction system and method for mud cake formation of cutter head of earth pressure balance shield machine |
| CN117877272A (en) * | 2024-03-11 | 2024-04-12 | 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司 | Intersection safety evaluation method based on unmanned aerial vehicle detection |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116701878A (en) * | 2023-07-05 | 2023-09-05 | 华南理工大学 | Risk prediction system and method for mud cake formation of cutter head of earth pressure balance shield machine |
| CN117877272A (en) * | 2024-03-11 | 2024-04-12 | 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司 | Intersection safety evaluation method based on unmanned aerial vehicle detection |
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