CN112464360A - LNG ship passing capacity calculating and simulating system based on cellular automata and multi-agent - Google Patents
LNG ship passing capacity calculating and simulating system based on cellular automata and multi-agent Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an LNG ship passing capacity calculating and simulating system based on a cellular automaton and a multi-agent, which comprises: a target water area traffic condition analysis module; a traffic flow analysis module based on AIS data; a target water area LNG ship passing capacity calculation module based on a cellular automaton and a multi-agent; a target water area ship traffic organization optimization module; the ship traffic scheduling simulation system for the target water area is used for constructing a ship traffic scheduling simulation system under a mixed traffic organization mode of an LNG ship and other ships on the basis of simulation modeling analysis and related research. According to the method, the AIS data is processed by adopting a big data mining method, a outlier inspection method is adopted to eliminate large errors in the data preprocessing process, a mathematical model of ship navigation conditions is obtained by combining with previous research, and the data is accurately processed, so that the current traffic situation of a research water area is analyzed, and the feasibility and the effectiveness of traffic flow simulation are ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation systems, in particular to an LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system based on AIS data.
Background
At present, for the research of ship passing capacity, scholars at home and abroad simulate ship traffic flow by means of a computer technology. Therefore, the invention also applies the ship traffic flow simulation technology to calculate and research the passing capacity of the Bohai Bay LNG ship.
The ship traffic flow simulation is a computer simulation test performed on a ship traffic flow model, and is a powerful tool for describing, evaluating and verifying the behavior of a ship traffic system and predicting the traffic flow. The method has the advantages of randomly determining space-time elements or operating conditions, being not limited by space, reproducing actual test process, simulating traffic organization in a plan, simulating traffic events with dangerous and catastrophic consequences, having low test cost, being easy to quantitatively express the relationship among more complex factors, being suitable for prediction and decision and the like.
In recent years, in the aspect of ship traffic flow simulation research, a method utilizing artificial intelligence such as cellular automata and intelligent agents is gradually developed on the basis of probability statistical analysis, and abundant results are obtained in the aspects of traffic flow characteristics, influence factors, prediction and the like. Since the microscopic traffic simulation has a characteristic of effectively reproducing various actual traffic conditions, the research object of the ship flow traffic simulation has gradually turned to the microscopic simulation from the macroscopic simulation. Therefore, an LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system based on AIS data is provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects in the prior art and provides an AIS data-based LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
an LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system based on AIS data comprises:
the target water area traffic condition analysis module is used for collecting and combing data such as target water area natural conditions, LNG ship arrival rules, port entrance and exit organization conditions, ship navigation rules, port planning and the like, determining research basic conditions and calculating the safe passing capacity of the LNG ship to be referred and supported;
the traffic flow analysis module based on the AIS data is used for collecting the AIS data of a target water area, and statistical analysis is carried out on traffic flow data such as ship type, size, speed, density, arrival time and the like of the water area by using a big data mining method so as to support capacity simulation research;
a target water area LNG ship passing capacity calculation module based on a simulation method is characterized in that a cellular automaton and multi-agent mixed simulation modeling method is adopted, characteristics of an LNG ship and an LNG receiving station are combined, and simulation modeling is conducted on the whole process of entrance and exit and berthing of the LNG ship of each relevant wharf of a target; meanwhile, the simulation model is calibrated, verified and confirmed by advanced quantitative analysis means such as ship traffic flow theory, characteristic parameter consistency analysis and the like;
based on the established simulation model, simulation is carried out on LNG ship navigation operation and regional ship traffic under different numbers of LNG ship wharf construction schemes in a target water area, and the LNG wharf passing capacity and the channel saturation after project delivery are predicted; and a layout scheme of a ring and a Bohai sea is combined, and a relevant suggestion is provided for reasonable extension scale of the LNG wharf in the target water area;
the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures for reducing the influence of the LNG ship entering and leaving the port based on a simulation result aiming at the navigation environment of the target water area, performs optimization research on a mixed traffic organization and provides a risk reduction measure;
the target water area ship traffic scheduling simulation system is used for improving the arrival efficiency of LNG ships, promoting reasonable utilization of navigation resources, guaranteeing the navigation efficiency, forming a mixed traffic optimization organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships and constructing the ship traffic scheduling simulation system under the mixed traffic organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships on the basis of simulation modeling analysis and related research.
Preferably, the current traffic conditions of the relevant water areas are researched and analyzed, and the current traffic conditions comprise the natural environment, navigation environment and current traffic flow conditions of the water areas.
Preferably, the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures such as relevant water area special channels, night navigation, channel public schemes, wharf interconnection and intercommunication technical schemes and the like in a key point mode, researches feasibility of the measures, and provides relevant implementation suggestions.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the method combines a conventional probability statistical method and cluster analysis to form various theoretical technologies, is applied to the research on the passing capacity of the LNG ship in the Bohai Bay water area, simulates the actual passing condition of the LNG ship in the Bohai Bay water area based on the acquired real AIS data, and provides a basis for relevant departments to construct the Bohai Bay berth;
according to the method, the AIS data is processed by adopting a big data mining method, a outlier inspection method is adopted to eliminate large errors in the data preprocessing process, a mathematical model of ship navigation conditions is obtained by combining with previous research, and the data is accurately processed, so that the current traffic situation of a research water area is analyzed, and the feasibility and the effectiveness of traffic flow simulation are ensured.
The invention combines cellular automata and multi-agent to respectively construct traffic flow simulation models aiming at various working conditions such as different time windows, night voyage development, special navigation channels and the like, improves the problem of lower efficiency of the multi-agent in the simulation process, overcomes the problem of complex ship voyage capacity, reduces the model complexity, and is easier for model realization and simulation analysis.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a frame of an LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system based on AIS data.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the present invention provides a technical solution:
an LNG ship passing capacity calculation and simulation system based on AIS data comprises:
the target water area traffic condition analysis module is used for collecting and combing data such as target water area natural conditions, LNG ship arrival rules, port entrance and exit organization conditions, ship navigation rules, port planning and the like, determining research basic conditions and calculating the safe passing capacity of the LNG ship to be referred and supported;
the traffic flow analysis module based on the AIS data is used for collecting the AIS data of a target water area, and statistical analysis is carried out on traffic flow data such as ship type, size, speed, density, arrival time and the like of the water area by using a big data mining method so as to support capacity simulation research;
a target water area LNG ship passing capacity calculation module based on a simulation method is characterized in that a cellular automaton and multi-agent mixed simulation modeling method is adopted, characteristics of an LNG ship and an LNG receiving station are combined, and simulation modeling is conducted on the whole process of entrance and exit and berthing of the LNG ship of each relevant wharf of a target; meanwhile, the simulation model is calibrated, verified and confirmed by advanced quantitative analysis means such as ship traffic flow theory, characteristic parameter consistency analysis and the like;
based on the established simulation model, simulation is carried out on LNG ship navigation operation and regional ship traffic under different numbers of LNG ship wharf construction schemes in a target water area, and the LNG wharf passing capacity and the channel saturation after project delivery are predicted; and a layout scheme of a ring and a Bohai sea is combined, and a relevant suggestion is provided for reasonable extension scale of the LNG wharf in the target water area;
the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures for reducing the influence of the LNG ship entering and leaving the port based on a simulation result aiming at the navigation environment of the target water area, performs optimization research on a mixed traffic organization and provides a risk reduction measure;
the target water area ship traffic scheduling simulation system is used for improving the arrival efficiency of LNG ships, promoting reasonable utilization of navigation resources, guaranteeing the navigation efficiency, forming a mixed traffic optimization organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships and constructing the ship traffic scheduling simulation system under the mixed traffic organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships on the basis of simulation modeling analysis and related research.
Specifically, the current traffic conditions of the relevant water areas are investigated and analyzed, including the current situations of the natural environment, navigation environment and traffic flow of the water areas.
Specifically, the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures such as relevant water area special channels, night navigation, channel public schemes, wharf interconnection and intercommunication technical schemes and the like in a key point mode, researches feasibility of the measures, and provides relevant implementation suggestions.
The working principle of the concrete implementation is that the research work is mainly carried out by adopting methods such as data mining, model construction, computer simulation, quantitative analysis and the like.
(1) Existing basic data collection and analysis
Basic data such as arrival rules, navigation rules, port entrance and exit organization conditions, port rules and the like of a target water area are comprehensively collected, domestic and foreign management specifications and requirements for ship passing are researched, and necessary basic data are provided for the project research.
(2) Analysis of traffic conditions in target waters
Starting from the natural environment, the navigation environment and the current traffic situation, the traffic condition of the target water area is analyzed. Bohai sea is the only inland sea in China, the total length of a coastline is 3784km, the sea area is 77284km2, the area only accounts for 1.63% of the sea area in China, and the average water depth of the sea area is 18 m. 100 river strips of partial rivers of the Liaohe, the sea river, the yellow river basin and the Shandong peninsula are converged into the Bohai sea, and rich nutrient substances are contained. The Bohai sea beach, fishery, estuary, petroleum, sea salt, coastal tourism and other resources are rich, the development condition is superior, and the method is an important support for the Bohai sea economic area development.
The target resource is rich, the port line is longer, and the natural port number reaches 94. The port number of the berth above the middle level can be built at 52, and the port number of the berth above the ten-thousand-ton level can be built at 17. The tidal water channel is mostly a deep scoured groove, the shoreline is more stable, the water depth is larger, but the change is more complex.
(3) Ship navigation behavior rule obtaining method based on AIS big data
The development of electronic communication technology in ship traffic, especially the wide application of AIS, makes massive ship traffic data recorded and stored, and the operation speed of computer is continuously increased and algorithm is continuously optimized, so that ship navigation behavior research based on ship traffic big data becomes possible, and water traffic also enters big data era.
The invention considers the space and time distribution characteristics of the ship track and the maneuverability of the ship, and analyzes the ship traffic data by methods such as big data mining and the like to obtain the actual navigation behavior rule of the ship in the water area. In the process of preprocessing the data, removing large errors in the ship navigation record by adopting an outlier detection method, eliminating local random errors of the data by adopting smooth filtering, processing the missing or redundant problems in the data by utilizing methods such as interpolation, fitting and the like, and acquiring data which can be used for research and analysis; secondly, according to the ship traffic data, converting qualitatively described ship navigation behaviors such as straight sailing, steering avoidance, deceleration avoidance, pursuit and the like into quantitatively described mathematical models or specific parameters; thirdly, determining the influence degree of human, ship, environment and other factors on the ship navigation behavior by adopting a principal component analysis method, linear regression and the like, and determining the relation between the influence factors and the ship navigation behavior by combining with previous research results; and finally, obtaining a mathematical relation model of the influence factors and the ship navigation behavior through multivariate linear regression, a structural equation and the like.
(4) Ship traffic flow model construction combined with multi-agent and cellular automata
In the invention, each main body in the ship transportation system is an Agent (Agent), and the transportation system is a Multi-Agent system (Multi-Agent system) as a whole. And constructing the agents according to the acquired ship navigation behavior rules, and determining communication, cooperation, mutual solution, coordination, scheduling, management and control mechanisms among the agents, so as to express the structure, function and behavior characteristics of the ship traffic system. Because the behavior of the ship is related to various factors, the regular expression of the obtained ship navigation behavior is complex, so that the problems of difficult realization, low efficiency and the like of the Muti-AgentSysteme are aggravated. To overcome the problem, the project introduces a cellular automaton model to improve a multi-agent-based traffic flow model.
Firstly, the purposes of reducing the difficulty of computer programming and simplifying the calculation amount of a computer are achieved by discretizing the ship navigation environment. Secondly, according to the characteristic that a complex system can be obtained by setting a simple rule in the cellular automata, part of functions of the Muti-AgentSystems are simplified into updating rules of the cellular automata, and therefore model complexity is reduced. Finally, the model is made easier to implement through computer simulation while preserving the complex nonlinear behavior and other physical characteristics of traffic flow.
(5) LNG ship passing capacity simulation and traffic flow model optimization
Similar to road traffic, ship throughflow is also divided into a number of categories. In order to scientifically and reasonably verify and analyze the applicability of the traffic flow model, ship traffic flows related to projects are simulated respectively. And (4) aiming at each ship traffic design simulation scheme, carrying out computer simulation, and analyzing a simulation result. The method is used for researching the mechanism of the ship traffic phenomenon and the error generated by simulation, and calibrating, checking and optimizing the model through a feedback network, multivariate fitting, multi-objective optimization algorithm and the like.
Research foundation of the invention
The method is based on the research of history and real-time AIS data of LNG ships and other ships, combines navigation rules of water areas of various ports, determines simulation rules, adds the simulation rules into a simulation model combining a cellular automaton and a multi-agent, simulates various working conditions, and obtains the passing capacity of the LNG ships in the target water area. The research content meets the industrial requirement, the theory and the technology are solid and feasible, the disciplines are crossed, the research content is rich, and the promotion flow of the project is rich and full. Meanwhile, a certain research foundation and a certain programming foundation exist in the aspects of AIS data processing and traffic flow simulation.
Feasibility analysis of the invention
(1) Feasibility of theory and technique
In the specific implementation process, the invention relates to more theories and methods, including probability statistics and cluster analysis, ship traffic flow theory, cell machine, multi-agent and the like. The probability statistics and cluster analysis method belongs to the conventional and classical methods for calculating and analyzing problems, and is mainly used for data statistics and analysis of static and dynamic characteristics of ship traffic flow; the ship traffic flow theory is an important theoretical basis for researches such as maritime traffic capacity, navigation safety, collision avoidance decision, channel planning design and the like, and is used for calculation research of LNG passing capacity and saturation; the ship traffic flow microscopic simulation based on the cellular machine and the multi-agent can reflect the characteristics of the change of the actual traffic flow process and the network flow along with the time, and is one of the main methods for the traffic flow microscopic simulation research abroad at present. The probability statistics and cluster analysis, ship traffic flow theory, cellular machine and multi-agent theory, method and technical means adopted in the project research process can solve the main problems and key technologies contained in the project, and reflect the adaptability of the research problems and new theory and method, therefore, the selection of the related theory and method related to the project has strong operability, and the project research is feasible in theory, technology and method.
(2) Expected simulation accuracy analysis
The precision related to the ship traffic flow simulation in the research is mainly time precision and space precision. After the space distribution of the ship traffic flow and the ship related parameters are known, in order to realize the simulation of the project, the time needs to be discretized by combining the behavior characteristics of the ship and the computer simulation configuration environment, and then the discretization parameters are determined according to the ship size and the space of the navigation area to discretize the space. Wherein the discretization of space and the discretization of time will directly affect the simulation accuracy.
The spatial discretization is mainly used for determining the size of the unit cell, and the time discretization is used for determining the time step of simulation. Compared with automobiles in road traffic, the average navigational speed of ships is slow, and the time for the ships to pass through a water area is relatively long, so that the time step is often set to be 1min when ship traffic flow simulation is carried out. The speed unit of the ship is kn, and the distance of the ship advancing within one step length under the unit speed is reasonable to be used as the size of the cell. The speed per hour of the ship can be directly rounded to the speed in the cellular automaton, i.e. int (kn) ═ cell/step. In addition, in practical application, the requirements on simulation precision and computing resource consumption can be met by changing the cell size and the time step. The smaller the step length and the smaller the size of the cell, the higher the simulation precision and the more the consumed computing resources; conversely, the smaller the simulation accuracy, the less computing resources are consumed.
(3) Simulation model verification scheme
The phenomenon that the rear ship is limited to overtake the front ship and perform deceleration following is more and more obvious along with the increase of the density of the ships in the channel. In order to verify whether the judgment of the model on the ship deceleration following foreship is in line with the reality or not, the ship adopting the deceleration following foreship behavior is counted, the spatial position of the ship is recorded, the distribution condition in a channel is obtained, and the error of the simulation result of the ship deceleration following behavior and the consistency of the actual measurement result are analyzed. In addition to deceleration following, a vessel's turn-following behavior is another major behavior in the study of vessel traffic flow in a channel. In order to verify whether the judgment of the model on the ship overtaking behavior is in line with the actual behavior or not, ship steering overtaking behavior is counted, the spatial position of the ship steering overtaking behavior is recorded, the position distribution condition in a navigation channel is obtained, and the error of the simulation result of the ship overtaking behavior and the consistency of the actual measurement result are analyzed.
Through the steps, the distribution conditions of the ship deceleration following and overtaking behaviors corresponding to all positions in the channel are obtained quantitatively, and the distribution conditions of the ship deceleration following and overtaking behaviors in the simulation result and the measured data are further compared, so that the simulation model can be verified.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (3)
1. An LNG ship passing capacity calculating and simulating system based on cellular automata and multi-agent is characterized by comprising:
the target water area traffic condition analysis module is used for collecting and combing data such as target water area natural conditions, LNG ship arrival rules, port entrance and exit organization conditions, ship navigation rules, port planning and the like, determining research basic conditions and calculating the safe passing capacity of the LNG ship to be referred and supported;
the traffic flow analysis module based on the AIS data is used for collecting the AIS data of a target water area, and statistical analysis is carried out on traffic flow data such as ship type, size, speed, density, arrival time and the like of the water area by using a big data mining method so as to support capacity simulation research;
a target water area LNG ship passing capacity calculation module based on a simulation method is characterized in that a cellular automaton and multi-agent mixed simulation modeling method is adopted, characteristics of an LNG ship and an LNG receiving station are combined, and simulation modeling is conducted on the whole process of entrance and exit and berthing of the LNG ship of each relevant wharf of a target; meanwhile, the simulation model is calibrated, verified and confirmed by advanced quantitative analysis means such as ship traffic flow theory, characteristic parameter consistency analysis and the like;
based on the established simulation model, simulation is carried out on LNG ship navigation operation and regional ship traffic under different numbers of LNG ship wharf construction schemes in a target water area, and the LNG wharf passing capacity and the channel saturation after project delivery are predicted; and a layout scheme of a ring and a Bohai sea is combined, and a relevant suggestion is provided for reasonable extension scale of the LNG wharf in the target water area;
the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures for reducing the influence of the LNG ship entering and leaving the port based on a simulation result aiming at the navigation environment of the target water area, performs optimization research on a mixed traffic organization and provides a risk reduction measure;
the target water area ship traffic scheduling simulation system is used for improving the arrival efficiency of LNG ships, promoting reasonable utilization of navigation resources, guaranteeing the navigation efficiency, forming a mixed traffic optimization organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships and constructing the ship traffic scheduling simulation system under the mixed traffic organization mode of the LNG ships and other ships on the basis of simulation modeling analysis and related research.
2. The cellular automata and multi-agent based LNG ship throughput capability calculation and simulation system of claim 1, wherein: and (4) carrying out investigation and analysis on the current traffic conditions of the relevant water areas, including the current situations of the natural environment, navigation environment and traffic flow of the water areas.
3. The cellular automata and multi-agent based LNG ship throughput capability calculation and simulation system of claim 1, wherein: the target water area ship traffic organization optimization module analyzes measures such as relevant water area special channels, night navigation, channel public schemes, wharf interconnection technical schemes and the like in a key point mode, researches feasibility of the measures, and provides relevant implementation suggestions.
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| CN113722910B (en) * | 2021-08-31 | 2024-02-09 | 中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所 | Macroscopic simulation method for airport terminal area |
| CN113822630A (en) * | 2021-09-14 | 2021-12-21 | 中远海运科技股份有限公司 | AIS-based LNG ship transport tracking method and system |
| CN113822630B (en) * | 2021-09-14 | 2022-04-12 | 中远海运科技股份有限公司 | AIS-based LNG ship transport tracking method and system |
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