Disclosure of Invention
The inventors found that in the related art, calculation efficiency is low for a long period of time.
The method and the device have the advantages that based on the extracted duration coefficient, each monitored object (such as a financial product) can reuse the duration coefficient to calculate the duration, and therefore the calculation efficiency of the duration is improved. In addition, interest rate distribution information for refining the long-term coefficient is constructed according to the logarithmic form of the interest rate and the logarithmic form of the interest rate fluctuation rate, so that the interest rate and the interest rate fluctuation rate are ensured to be greater than 0, the situation that the negative interest rate, the interest rate fluctuation rate is 0 and the like do not conform to the actual situation is avoided, and the accuracy of long-term calculation is improved.
Some embodiments of the present disclosure provide a risk monitoring method, including:
weighting the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period by using a long-term coefficient to obtain the cash flow present value of the monitored object in each time period, wherein the long-term coefficient is calculated according to the interest rate corresponding to the time parameter, and the interest rate corresponding to the time parameter is determined according to the interest rate distribution information;
calculating the duration of the monitored object according to the cash flow current value of the monitored object in each time period;
and monitoring the interest rate risk of the monitored object according to the long term of the monitored object.
In some embodiments, the interest rate distribution information is constructed from a logarithmic form of interest rate and a logarithmic form of interest rate fluctuation rate.
In some embodiments, said calculating the age factor comprises:
calculating a discount factor according to interest rates corresponding to the time parameters and the current period of the cash flow;
accumulating the discount factors from the period from the occurrence of the first cash flow to the occurrence of the last cash flow to obtain a duration factor.
In some embodiments, the age coefficients include one or more of a first age coefficient, a second age coefficient, a third age coefficient;
the first age factor is:
in the case of the single-benefit form,
in the form of a multi-interest form,
the second age factor is:
the third longevity coefficient is:
in the case of the single-benefit form,
under the continuous multi-interest form, the method can realize the continuous multi-interest form,
wherein, yTIndicating interest rate, y, at time TiIndicating an on-demand rate for a certain period of time, EV1And EV2Representing the discount factor, t represents the time period from which cash flow occurred, and N represents the time period from which the last cash flow occurred.
In some embodiments, said calculating the age of the monitored object comprises:
and dividing the current value of the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period by the accumulated value of the current values of the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period, and weighting and summing the current period of the corresponding cash flow and the current period to obtain the long period of the monitored object.
In some embodiments, the age of the monitored subject is weighted with at least one of interest rate scene coefficients and pressure scene coefficients.
In some embodiments, the monitoring interest rate risk of the monitored subject comprises:
and determining the long-term risk quota of the monitored object according to the long term of the monitored object, the long-term fluctuation rate of the monitored object and the quantile point value corresponding to the preset confidence interval.
In some embodiments, the monitoring interest rate risk of the monitored subject comprises:
and monitoring the interest rate risk of the monitored object according to whether the duration of the monitored object exceeds a set threshold value.
Some embodiments of the present disclosure provide a risk monitoring device, comprising:
a memory; and
a processor coupled to the memory, the processor configured to perform the risk monitoring method of any of the embodiments based on instructions stored in the memory.
Some embodiments of the present disclosure propose a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the risk monitoring method of any of the embodiments.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present disclosure will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present disclosure.
Fig. 1 is a flow diagram illustrating some embodiments of a method for lifetime computation according to the present disclosure. As shown in fig. 1, the term calculation method of this embodiment includes steps 13-14, i.e., each monitored object (e.g., financial product) can calculate the term by reusing a term coefficient; the duration calculation method of this embodiment may further optionally include steps 11-12 of calculating a duration coefficient in advance; the method for calculating the lifetime of this embodiment may further optionally include step 15, weighting the lifetime according to the service requirement.
In step 11, the interest rate corresponding to the time parameter is determined according to the interest rate distribution information.
The interest rate distribution information is constructed according to the logarithmic form of the interest rate and the logarithmic form of the interest rate fluctuation rate, the interest rate and the interest rate fluctuation rate are ensured to be greater than 0, the situations that the negative interest rate, the interest rate fluctuation rate is 0 and the like are not in line with the actual situation are avoided, and the accuracy of long-term calculation is improved.
In some embodiments, interest rate distribution information may be expressed, for example, as:
wherein f (x) represents an interest rate distribution function, x represents an interest rate, μ represents a long-term mean value of the interest rate, α represents a recovery rate of the interest rate, and σ represents a fluctuation rate of the interest rate, and x, α, and σ are positive numbers by using logarithmic properties, and μ is a positive number. The interest rate distribution function can be obtained by, for example, logarithmic processing of the CIR distribution function.
In step 12, a longevity coefficient is calculated according to the interest rate corresponding to the time parameter.
In some embodiments, calculating the age factor includes, for example: calculating the discount factor according to the interest rate corresponding to the time parameter and the current period of the cash flow, and accumulating the discount factor from the current period of the first cash flow to the current period of the last cash flow to obtain the long-term coefficient.
The age coefficient includes one or more of a first age coefficient, a second age coefficient, and a third age coefficient. In the following formula, yTIndicating interest rate, y, at time TiIndicating an on-demand rate for a certain period of time, EV1And EV2Representing discount factor, t tableShowing the time period of cash flow from the current time, and N showing the time period of the last cash flow from the current time.
The first age factor is:
in the case of the single-benefit form,
in the form of a multi-interest form,
the second longevity coefficient is:
wherein the second duration coefficient can be calculated by performing a first derivative on the first duration coefficient.
The third longevity coefficient is:
in the case of the single-benefit form,
in the form of a multi-interest form,
the third long term coefficient can reflect the change of the immediate interest rate, overcomes the limit of the horizontal interest rate distribution curve hypothesis, and can reflect the actual discount factor and the long term coefficient.
The embodiment calculates the duration coefficient according to the interest rate and the time information, and the duration coefficient is irrelevant to the business information of the monitored object (such as a financial product), so that each monitored object (such as a financial product) can calculate the duration by reusing the various duration coefficients. In addition, in general, the duration coefficient can be pre-calculated and stored, and the duration coefficient can be directly called to calculate the duration of the monitored object (such as a financial product) in the follow-up process, so that the real-time performance and the calculation efficiency of the duration calculation can be improved.
In step 13, the cash flow of the monitored object in each time segment is weighted by using the age factor to obtain the cash flow value of the monitored object in each time segment.
The cash flow of the monitored object in each time period may be directly obtained from the service system, which is exemplified below.
For example: the method comprises the following steps that a certain person deposits an account regularly, the expiration date is 2009-01-01, the due paying mode is one-time cost-back, the interest paying frequency is one-time cost-back, the annual interest rate is 1%, the current balance is 1000 yuan, and then the account has 2 cash flows in the future, wherein the two cash flows are respectively as follows:
first cash flow: the payment date of principal: 2010-01-01, principal payment amount: 1000 yuan;
the second cash flow: interest payment date: 2010-01-01, interest payment amount: 10 yuan.
In the case where the interest rate changes, for example, a monitoring target such as a credit-type monitoring target that makes a significant adjustment to the cash flow due to a change in the interest rate, or an authorized bond, the cash flow rate of the monitoring target can be corrected by the adjustment coefficient.
In some embodiments, the lifetime coefficient is multiplied by the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period to obtain the cash flow of the monitored object in the corresponding time period. The present value of cash flow is also referred to as cash-out flow.
In step 14, the duration of the monitored object is calculated according to the current value of the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period.
Specifically, the current value of the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period is divided by the accumulated value of the current values of the cash flow of the monitored object in each time period, and the accumulated values and the current period of the corresponding cash flow are weighted and summed to obtain the long term of the monitored object.
The first age of the monitored object calculated based on the first age coefficient may be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
other symbolic meanings are referred to above and will not be described herein.
The second age of the monitored object calculated based on the second age coefficient may be expressed as:
the third longevity of the monitored object calculated based on the third longevity coefficient can be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
other symbolic meanings are referred to above and will not be described herein.
In step 15, the monitoring object is weighted by at least one of the interest rate scene coefficient and the pressure scene coefficient for a long time, so as to obtain the long time under different interest rate scenes and different pressure scenes.
The various durations after weighting with interest rate scene coefficients can be expressed as: mu.s
c*MacD、μ
c*D
*、
Wherein, mu
cAnd the interest rate scene coefficient is expressed and can be set according to reference factors such as currency, the standard interest rate impact amplitude of the currency, the variation trend of the interest rate distribution curve, the variation trend of short-term interest rate and long-term interest rate and the like.
The age weighted with the pressure scenario coefficients can be expressed as: mu.s
s*MacD、μ
s*D
*、
Wherein, mu
sThe pressure scenario coefficient is expressed, and may be set according to reference factors such as a benchmark interest Rate, a currency exchange Rate change, an economic development cycle stage, and a Loan market price (LPR).
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating some embodiments of a longevity-based risk monitoring method of the present disclosure. The method is suitable for the above-mentioned various long periods, such as MacD and D
*、
μ
c*MacD、μ
c*D
*、
μ
s*MacD、μ
s*D
*、
And the like. Therefore, the interest rate risk of the monitored object is monitored according to the long term of the monitored object.
As shown in fig. 2, the method of this embodiment includes steps 21-25.
In step 21, cash flow data of the monitored object is selected through the set time window.
At step 22, according to the method of the embodiment shown in fig. 1, a certain age of the monitored object under the time window is calculated, e.g. MacD, D
*、
μ
c*MacD、μ
c*D
*、
μ
s*MacD、μ
s*D
*、
And the like.
In step 23, the time window is divided into a plurality of intervals, and the fluctuation rate of the monitored object in the long term is calculated from the long term at each interval, for example, the variance of the long term at each interval is taken as the fluctuation rate in the long term.
In step 24, a quantile point value corresponding to the preset confidence interval is calculated.
The quantile point values are normally distributed relative to the confidence values, the confidence values at two ends of the confidence interval are input into a normal distribution function, and the quantile point value corresponding to the confidence value can be output. For example, the distribution of quantile point values with confidence values of 95% and 99% is Zα(95%)=1.645,Zα(99%)=2.33。
In step 25, the duration D of the monitored object and the duration fluctuation rate σ of the monitored object are calculated according to the aboveDAnd a quantile point value Z corresponding to a preset confidence intervalαDetermining a VAR for a monitoring subject's long-term risk quotaDThe formula is expressed as:
VARD=ZασDD。
in the embodiment, the long-term risk limit is calculated according to the long term of the monitored object, the interest rate risk of the monitored object is monitored by using the long-term risk limit, and if the interest rate risk exceeds the limit, the interest rate risk of the monitored object is higher.
FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating some embodiments of a longevity-based risk monitoring method of the present disclosure. The method is suitable for the above-mentioned various long periods, such as MacD and D
*、
μ
c*MacD、μ
c*D
*、
μ
s*MacD、μ
s*D
*、
And the like. Therefore, the interest rate risk of the monitored object is monitored according to the long term of the monitored object.
As shown in fig. 3, the method of this embodiment includes steps 31-32.
In step 31, a threshold for the lifetime is set.
At step 32, a determination is made of a certain age of the monitored object, e.g., MacD, D
*、
μ
c*MacD、μ
c*D
*、
μ
s*MacD、μ
s*D
*、
Etc., whether the threshold is exceeded.
In step 33, if the threshold is exceeded, it indicates that the interest rate risk of the monitored object is higher, and at this time, the monitoring result may be sent to achieve the purpose of prompting.
The interest rate risk of the monitored object is monitored according to the duration of the monitored object and the set threshold value, and if the interest rate risk exceeds the threshold value, the interest rate risk of the monitored object is higher.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of some embodiments of the risk monitoring device of the present disclosure. As shown in fig. 4, the risk monitoring device 40 of this embodiment includes: a memory 41, and a processor 42 coupled to the memory 41, the processor 42 configured to perform the risk monitoring method of any of the embodiments based on instructions stored in the memory 41.
The memory 41 may include, for example, a system memory, a fixed nonvolatile storage medium, and the like. The system memory stores, for example, an operating system, an application program, a Boot Loader (Boot Loader), and other programs.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present disclosure may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present disclosure may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present disclosure may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable non-transitory storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present disclosure is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the disclosure. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above description is only exemplary of the present disclosure and is not intended to limit the present disclosure, so that any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present disclosure should be included in the scope of the present disclosure.