CN112418663A - Method and system for configuring road tourism passenger vehicle, electronic equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method, a system, electronic equipment and a computer readable storage medium for configuring a road tourism passenger vehicle, wherein the method comprises the following steps: predicting the travel condition of a certain road, and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value; calculating to obtain a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit; and obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval. According to the invention, the problem that the parameters cannot be verified and obtained in the traditional method is solved by adopting a cost benefit analysis mode according to the change condition of the road tourism passenger volume. The tourism group matching method solves the defect that the traditional method can not match the serial number of the dynamic road passenger transport tourism demand. A comprehensive adjustment method is adopted, and a mode of human experience plus numerical calculation is introduced, so that the problems of stability and reliability of the traditional prediction model are solved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of transportation, in particular to a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration method, a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration system, electronic equipment and a computer readable storage medium.
Background
The development of the road tourism passenger transport complements the development of the tourism economy, and the demand of the road tourism passenger transport market is the basis for guiding the development of the tourism passenger transport. The regional nature of tourist coaches requires that tourist coaches play different roles in different stages of development. Therefore, at present, the development of the road tourism passenger transport market in the tourism city in China is mainly characterized in that the relative balance of supply and demand of the tourism passenger transport market is ensured through transport capacity planning and transport capacity measurement, and the healthy development of the tourism passenger transport market can be ensured only by considering the travel requirements of tourists and the economic benefits of tourism passenger transport employees.
The traditional vehicle capacity allocation of the road tourism passenger transport capacity generally adopts a plurality of measuring and calculating methods and carries out combined research on the measuring and calculating methods so as to improve the measuring and calculating accuracy.
The specific traditional measuring and calculating thought is as follows:
1. the method is characterized by comprising the steps of determining a measuring and calculating target, analyzing influence factors of tourism passenger transport capacity of a certain urban road, collecting related data according to the analysis of the influence factors, and combining data provided by a tourism passenger transport enterprise of a certain city to carry out arrangement and calculation so as to provide a data basis for measuring and calculating. Meanwhile, different quantitative measuring and calculating methods and calculation models are selected according to the characteristics of tourism and passenger transportation on a certain urban road, the transportation capacity of the tourism and passenger transportation on the certain urban road is quantitatively measured and calculated, in the comprehensive measuring and calculating process of the quantitative measuring and calculating result, the obtained result is researched and developed on the spot by the planning group, the qualitative measuring and calculating and the quantitative calculation are combined, and the calculation models are improved.
2. According to the development history of tourism passenger transport on a certain urban road, carrying out statistics on transport capacity data and operation condition data of the tourism passenger transport enterprise within a certain time range (usually 10 years) from the aspect of enterprise development, finding a development rule of the tourism passenger transport capacity from the aspect of time sequence by combining the development of tourism economy of a certain urban road, respectively adopting a plurality of single model measurement algorithms by combining the development rule of a tourism passenger transport market on the road, then carrying out summary analysis on measurement and calculation results of the plurality of single model measurement algorithms, finally combining qualitative measurement and quantitative measurement, correcting the quantitative measurement and calculation result by using the qualitative measurement and calculation to obtain a scientific measurement and calculation conclusion, and providing a reliable basis for the development of the tourism passenger transport capacity on the certain urban road.
According to the above measuring and calculating ideas, the following procedures are generally adopted in the traditional method to measure and calculate the travel passenger transport capacity requirement of a certain urban road. The method comprises the following specific steps:
firstly, the planning annual passenger transport capacity is calculated and calculated from the aspect of the development and change rule of the road tourism passenger transport capacity. The method comprises the steps of analyzing main factors influencing the development of the tourism passenger transport capacity of a certain city and the future development trend of the main factors, and carrying out quantitative measurement and calculation by using three measurement and calculation methods of a correlation linear regression analysis method, a trend extrapolation method and a gray system method.
And secondly, calculating the planned annual tourism passenger transport capacity from the generation angle of the road tourism passenger transport capacity. Firstly, the demand of planning annual tourism passenger transportation is measured and calculated. According to the development needs of a certain urban economy and society, three measurement and calculation methods, namely a correlation linear regression analysis method, a trend extrapolation method and a gray system method, are applied to measure and calculate the transportation demand of tourism and passenger transport on a certain urban road in a planning year; and then, analyzing the influence relation between the transport indexes such as the average working vehicle day, the actual load rate and the like and the transport capacity, and calculating the transport capacity of the passenger transport according to the direct endogenous relation between the transport capacity of the passenger transport and the influence factors by combining the characteristics of a certain urban tourism market.
Thirdly, analyzing and checking the measurement results of the two methods, selecting three single measurement models with scientific measurement thought, good fitting effect and more accurate measurement results, and performing optimal weighted combined measurement by adopting a mean square error reciprocal method.
And finally, according to the development current situation of a certain urban road tourism passenger transport market, the management current situation of an industry management department, the dependency relationship of tourism economy on road tourism passenger transport, the development policy of certain urban tourism economy in five years in the future and the like, correcting the result obtained by combined measurement and calculation to obtain the final measurement value of the road tourism passenger transport capacity measurement and calculation during a certain urban target year.
Moreover, the traditional method for measuring and calculating the travel passenger capacity of the road comprises the following steps:
1. multiple regression algorithm
The common method generally selects parameters related to the passenger capacity, such as four important factors influencing the passenger capacity completed by the tourist coach, such as tourist income, number of tourists, GDP (graphics data processing) and third industrial value, and establishes a related regression measurement model to measure and calculate the passenger capacity requirement completed by the tourist coach in a certain city.
(1) Multiple regression model for measuring and calculating passenger capacity of tourism bus
Some relevant indexes have important influence on the passenger carrying capacity of the tourist bus and have strong correlation among the relevant indexes. If multiple regression is directly performed, multiple collinearity problems obviously occur, and the regression result is further influenced. The basic idea of the stepwise regression method is that the variables are introduced one by one, after each independent variable is introduced, the selected variables are checked one by one, and when the originally introduced variables become no longer obvious due to the introduction of the following variables, the originally introduced variables are removed; introducing a variable or removing a variable from the regression equation, wherein each step of stepwise regression is subjected to an F test to ensure that the regression equation only contains a significant variable before a new variable is introduced each time. This process is repeated until neither significant independent variables are selected into the regression equation nor insignificant independent variables are removed from the regression equation, thus ensuring that the resulting regression subset is the optimal regression subset. For example, taking the passenger capacity completed by the tourist bus as a dependent variable, taking four indexes such as tourist income, the number of tourists, GDP, a third industrial value and the like as independent variables, taking the significance level a1 of the introduced independent variable, eliminating the significance level a2 of the independent variable, and then performing stepwise regression on the passenger capacity multiple regression calculation by the tourist bus, wherein a model expression of the step regression is as follows:
a passenger capacity α GDP- β travel income γ (1);
wherein, alpha, beta and gamma are regression parameters.
And calculating the measured value of the passenger volume finished by the tourist bus by using the formula (1).
2. Grey measuring algorithm
(1) Model principle:
the original data sequence was established as follows: x(0)＝(X(0)(1),X(0)(2),...,X(0)(n))；
In order to eliminate the randomness and the volatility of the data, the original data is accumulated once to generate a new sequence which is gradually increased:
X(1)＝(X(1)(1),X(1)(2),...,X(1)(n))；
the first order differential equation for the model is then:
the least squares estimation parameters of the differential equation satisfy:
wherein: y ═ x(0)(2),x(0)(3),...,x(0)(n)]T；
The whitening equation for this GM (1,1) model is then as follows:
bringing parameter values into a calculation model
The final measurement equation is obtained as follows:
X(0)(k+1)＝X(1)(k+1)-X(1)(k)；
and (5) building a passenger capacity measuring and calculating model. Through calculation, the passenger capacity measuring and calculating model is obtained as follows:
and measuring and calculating the passenger capacity finished by the tourism bus based on the gray GM (1,1) model.
3. Linear quadratic moving average method
The measuring and calculating model of the linear quadratic moving average method is as follows: ft+T＝at+btT, wherein T is the current cycle sequence number; t is the number of the period intervals from the current period T to the measurement and calculation period, namely the measurement and calculation advanced period number; ft+TThe measured value is the measured value of the T + T period; a ist＝2S(1)-S(2)，
4. Combined measurement and calculation
The three measurement methods respectively measure and calculate the passenger transport demand finished by the future tourist buses in a certain city from different angles, and the measurement errors of the passenger transport demand finished by the tourist buses are different, some have higher precision and some have lower precision. The traditional method comprehensively adopts a combined measuring algorithm of the three methods, namely, the three measuring and calculating models are combined, information provided by the three measuring and calculating methods is comprehensively utilized, and a combined measuring and calculating model is obtained through proper weighted average. The combined measuring and calculating model can combine three single measuring and calculating methods for use, so that the combined measuring and calculating result is not sensitive to a certain measuring and calculating method with relatively low single precision, and the measuring and calculating precision and reliability are improved. And performing optimal weighted combination measurement and calculation by using the minimum sum of the squares of the weighted measurement and calculation errors of the three as a criterion.
(1) Establishing a non-linear programming model
Wherein K is (K)1,k2,k3)T、R＝(1,1,1)TAnd E is a correlation matrix;
(2) using formulas
Solving by a Lagrange multiplier method to obtain K;
(3) and linearly and optimally weighting and combining the result Y.
In addition, the conventional road travel passenger capacity vehicle capacity calculation method includes:
1. method of coefficient of elasticity
And determining the transport capacity of a certain city by adopting an elastic coefficient method and combining the passenger capacity calculation result. There is a certain relationship between the rate of capacity increase and the rate of passenger capacity increase. For example, if the average annual increase rate of travel passenger capacity of a certain city over the years is β and the average annual increase rate of passenger capacity is α, the elastic coefficient is determined
Therefore, the following model can be established to measure the future travel passenger transport capacity of a certain city:
y is the capacity of the measured year, Y0 is the capacity of the reference year, e is the elastic coefficient, and a is the average annual growth rate of the passenger capacity of the measured year.
2. Method of formula
According to formula method, combined with passenger transportThe available tourist bus demand can be calculated as follows:
wherein: b: tourist bus demand;
q: measuring and calculating the passenger capacity finished by the tourist bus in the period;
z: the average seat number of the tourist bus is calculated according to the average value of the enterprise filling, namely 37 seats;
t: the vehicle dispatching rate refers to the average number of times each vehicle can transport each day;
r: the real load rate refers to the ratio of the product of the actual passenger number and the distance of travel of the tourist bus and the product of the total number of seats of the bus and the travel mileage;
g: the working day refers to the effective working time of the tourist bus.
The above conventional methods have the following drawbacks and disadvantages:
(1) the change situation of the road tourism passenger volume is not considered;
(2) the parameters such as the elastic coefficient and the like cannot be verified, and the stability is poor;
(3) cannot match the real-time change of the travel passenger demand on the road.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve at least one technical problem in the background art and provides a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration method, a system, an electronic device and a computer readable storage medium.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a method for configuring a road tourism passenger vehicle, comprising:
predicting the travel condition of a certain road, and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
calculating to obtain a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
and obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
According to one aspect of the invention, the calculating the first demand value of the on-road passenger vehicle according to the predicted value comprises:
acquiring the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers of a first time period of a certain road;
predicting the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers in the second time period of the road;
establishing a demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle based on the forecast quantity;
calculating the total scale and composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicles in the first time period and the second time period by utilizing the model;
and the average value after the maximum value and the minimum value in the data of the scale and the composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle are removed is the first requirement value.
According to one aspect of the invention, the formula of the road touring passenger vehicle demand model is:
wherein: vt-size of touring passenger vehicle required by the whole city, unit: vehicles (tables);
γp-the peak coefficient of the tourist groups at home and abroad in months;
γw-travel period duration of tourist group, unit: day;
βs-average vehicle idle rate;
γcvehicle turnover rate, i.e. race rate, refers to the number of tourist groups that a vehicle can serve on average one day;
γiaverage number of vehicles used per tourist group, related to team size.
According to one aspect of the invention, the calculating the second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit comprises the following steps:
calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry;
calculating a minimum vehicle demand;
based on the lowest vehicle, increasing the number of vehicles and calculating the net profit percentage of the corresponding road tourism passenger transport industry;
selecting the second demand value for the touring passenger vehicle according to a road touring passenger transport industry percentage net profit threshold.
According to one aspect of the invention, the formula for calculating the percentage net profit index for the road tourism passenger transport industry is as follows:
wherein beta is the net profit percentage of the tourism passenger transport industry;
ζ is the percentage threshold of net profits of the tourism passenger transport industry required for maintaining the stability of the industry;
x is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the number of required operational county-level touring passenger vehicles.
According to one aspect of the invention, the minimum vehicle demand meets the travel passenger total popularity constraint, and the travel passenger total popularity constraint formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the average travel time of the province and city team tourists is 3.5 days by multiplying the maximum province and city tour number requirement value of a single month by 3.5;
x is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the number of required operational county-level touring passenger vehicles.
According to one aspect of the invention, the average value of the first demand value and the second demand value is obtained, and the demand value floating section including the average value is matched to obtain the road tourism passenger vehicle arrangement.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration system, comprising:
the first data processing module is used for predicting the travel condition of a certain road and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
the second data processing module is used for calculating a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
and the vehicle capacity configuration module is used for obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
To achieve the above object, the present invention also provides an electronic device, including:
at least one processor; and
a memory coupled to the at least one processor; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor to implement the method of any one of claims 1-7.
To achieve the above object, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program, which when executed, is capable of implementing the method of any one of claims 1-7.
According to one scheme of the invention, the problem that parameters cannot be verified and obtained in the traditional method is solved by adopting a cost-benefit analysis model according to the change condition of the road tourism passenger volume, parameters such as elastic coefficients and the like are effectively verified, and the stability is good. Meanwhile, the defect that the traditional method cannot be matched with the dynamic road passenger transport tourism demand number is overcome by a demand matching method. A comprehensive adjustment method, a comprehensive demand matching method and a cost and income analysis method are adopted, and a mode of artificial experience plus numerical calculation is introduced, so that the problems of stability and reliability of the traditional prediction model are solved. The invention can match the real-time change of the road tourism passenger transport demand.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart that schematically illustrates a method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle, in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram schematically illustrating the construction of a road touring passenger vehicle deployment system according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph showing the relationship between the size of an inter-city vehicle in a certain city and county and the percentage of net profits in the road tourism passenger transportation industry;
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the relationship between the size of inter-city vehicles in a city province and the percentage of net profits in the road tourism passenger transportation industry.
Detailed Description
The content of the invention will now be discussed with reference to exemplary embodiments. It is to be understood that the embodiments discussed are merely intended to enable one of ordinary skill in the art to better understand and thus implement the teachings of the present invention, and do not imply any limitations on the scope of the invention.
As used herein, the term "include" and its variants are to be read as open-ended terms meaning "including, but not limited to. The term "based on" is to be read as "based, at least in part, on". The terms "one embodiment" and "an embodiment" are to be read as "at least one embodiment".
FIG. 1 schematically represents a flow chart of a method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle according to the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle according to the present invention comprises the steps of:
a. predicting the travel condition of a certain road, and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
b. calculating to obtain a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
c. and obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
According to one embodiment of the invention, the method for calculating the first demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the predicted value by adopting a demand matching method comprises the following steps:
a1. acquiring the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers of a first time period of a certain road;
a2. predicting the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers in the second time period of the road;
a3. establishing a demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle based on the forecast quantity;
a4. calculating the total scale and composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle in the first time period and the second time period by utilizing the model;
a5. the average value after the maximum value and the minimum value in the data of the scale and the composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle are removed is the first requirement value.
The formula of the demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle is as follows:
wherein: vt-size of touring passenger vehicle required by the whole city, unit: vehicles (tables);
γp-the peak coefficient of the tourist groups at home and abroad in months;
γw-travel period duration of tourist group, unit: day;
βs-average vehicle idle rate;
γcvehicle turnover rate, i.e. race rate, refers to the number of tourist groups that a vehicle can serve on average one day;
γiaverage number of vehicles used per tourist group, related to team size.
According to one embodiment of the invention, a second demand value of the tourist passenger transport vehicles on the road is calculated by adopting a cost-benefit analysis method according to total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and transport resource investment of passenger transport units, and the method comprises the following steps:
calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry;
calculating a minimum vehicle demand;
based on the lowest vehicle, increasing the number of vehicles and calculating the net profit percentage of the corresponding road tourism passenger transport industry;
and selecting a second demand value of the touring passenger vehicle according to the net profit percentage threshold value of the road touring passenger traffic industry.
The formula for calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry is as follows:
wherein beta is the net profit percentage of the tourism passenger transport industry;
ζ is the percentage threshold of net profits of the tourism passenger transport industry required for maintaining the stability of the industry;
x is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the number of required operational county-level touring passenger vehicles.
The minimum vehicle demand meets the total number of people demand constraint of the tourism passenger transport, and the total number of people demand constraint formula of the tourism passenger transport is as follows:
wherein X is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the required number of the operable county-side tourism passenger vehicles;
According to one embodiment of the invention, the average value of the first demand value and the second demand value is obtained by adopting a comprehensive adjustment method, and meanwhile, the demand value floating interval containing the average value is matched to obtain the configuration scheme of the road tourism passenger vehicle.
According to the method, the problem that parameters cannot be verified and acquired in the traditional method is solved by a cost benefit analysis method; a tourist group matching method is adopted to overcome the defect that the traditional method can not match the serial number of the dynamic road passenger transport tourist demand; a comprehensive adjustment method is adopted, and a mode of human experience plus numerical calculation is introduced, so that the problems of stability and reliability of the traditional prediction model are solved. Therefore, according to the method, the change condition of the road tourism passenger volume can be reflected; the problems that parameters such as elastic coefficient and the like cannot be verified, the stability is poor and the like are solved; the problem that real-time change of the requirements of the road tourism passenger transport cannot be matched is solved.
Furthermore, in order to achieve the object of the present invention, the present invention provides a road touring passenger vehicle arranging system, fig. 2 schematically shows a block diagram of the road touring passenger vehicle arranging system according to the present invention, as shown in fig. 2, the road touring passenger vehicle arranging system according to the present invention comprising:
the first data processing module is used for predicting the travel condition of a certain road and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
the second data processing module is used for calculating a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
and the vehicle capacity configuration module is used for obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
According to one embodiment of the invention, the method for calculating the first demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road by the first data processing module according to the predicted value by adopting a demand matching method comprises the following steps:
a1. acquiring the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers of a first time period of a certain road;
a2. predicting the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers in the second time period of the road;
a3. establishing a demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle based on the forecast quantity;
a4. calculating the total scale and composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle in the first time period and the second time period by utilizing the model;
a5. the average value after the maximum value and the minimum value in the data of the scale and the composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle are removed is the first requirement value.
The formula of the demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle is as follows:
wherein: vt-size of touring passenger vehicle required by the whole city, unit: vehicles (tables);
γp-the peak coefficient of the tourist groups at home and abroad in months;
γw-travel period duration of tourist group, unit: day;
βs-average vehicle idle rate;
γcvehicle turnover rate, i.e. race rate, refers to the number of tourist groups that a vehicle can serve on average one day;
γiaverage number of vehicles used per tourist group, related to team size.
According to one embodiment of the invention, the second data processing module calculates the second demand value of the tourist passenger transport vehicles on the subway according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit by adopting a cost-benefit analysis method, and the method comprises the following steps:
calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry;
calculating a minimum vehicle demand;
based on the lowest vehicle, increasing the number of vehicles and calculating the net profit percentage of the corresponding road tourism passenger transport industry;
and selecting a second demand value of the touring passenger vehicle according to the net profit percentage threshold value of the road touring passenger traffic industry.
The formula for calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry is as follows:
wherein beta is the net profit percentage of the tourism passenger transport industry;
ζ is the percentage net profit threshold for the passenger transport industry required to maintain industry stability.
The minimum vehicle demand meets the total number of people demand constraint of the tourism passenger transport, and the total number of people demand constraint formula of the tourism passenger transport is as follows:
wherein X is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the required number of the operable county-side tourism passenger vehicles;
According to one embodiment of the invention, by adopting a comprehensive adjustment method, the vehicle capacity configuration module obtains the average value of the first demand value and the second demand value, and simultaneously matches the demand value floating interval containing the average value to obtain the road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme.
According to the system, the problem that the parameters of the traditional system cannot be verified and acquired is solved in a cost benefit analysis mode; the defect that the traditional system cannot be matched with the serial number of the dynamic road passenger transport tourism demand is overcome in a tourism group matching mode; the method solves the problems of stability and reliability of the traditional prediction model by a comprehensive adjustment mode and a mode of artificial experience plus numerical calculation. Therefore, the system can reflect the change situation of the road tourism passenger volume; the problems that parameters such as elastic coefficient and the like cannot be verified, the stability is poor and the like are solved; the problem that real-time change of the requirements of the road tourism passenger transport cannot be matched is solved.
In order to achieve the object of the present invention, the present invention also provides an electronic device comprising: at least one processor; and a memory coupled to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor to implement the above method.
The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program which, when executed, is capable of carrying out the above-mentioned method.
In addition, the present invention is specifically described in the above aspects of the present invention by way of an embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Example 1:
the scheme of the invention is specifically explained by taking the calculation of the transportation capacity configuration of the road tourism passenger vehicle in a certain city in China as an example.
(1) Demand matching method
According to the statistical data of the whole-city tourism economy operation of the tourism bureau in a certain city, the ratio of the tourism group and the tourism times of local travel agencies in the certain city, as well as the provincial and city tourism groups and the tourism times is shown in the table 1 between the 9 th decision year and the 3 nd decision year.
TABLE 1
Table 1 shows the total number of tourist groups and total number of tourists at home and abroad in a certain city from 9 months to 3 months in the 1 st year to 2 months in the decision.
By adopting a seasonal trend extrapolation method, the total amount of domestic and foreign tourist groups and the total number of tourists and the constituent proportion of a city from 4 months at decision-making year 2 to 7 months at decision-making year 3 can be predicted, which is specifically shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
Table 2 shows the predicted value of domestic and foreign travel demands in a city from 4 months to 7 months in the decision year 2.
Referring to the transportation resource allocation theory in transportation economics, a road tourism passenger vehicle demand model is established, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula:
Vgeneral assembly-size of touring passenger vehicle required by the whole city, unit: vehicles (tables);
γheight of-the peak coefficient of the tourist groups at home and abroad in months;
γweek (week)-travel period duration of tourist group, unit: day;
βleisure time-average vehicle idle rate;
γvehicle with wheelsVehicle turnover rate, i.e. race rate, refers to the number of tourist groups that a vehicle can serve on average one day;
γfinger-shapedAverage number of vehicles used per tourist group, depending on team size, e.g. gammaFinger-shaped2.0 means that an average of 2 vehicles are required per tourist group.
Bonding ofEconomic operation analysis of tourism from 9 months in decision 1 to 7 months in decision 3 of tourism bureau in a certain city, and the peak coefficient gamma of the tourism groups of the city at home and abroad in monthsHeight of1.25 times of travel period time length gamma of tourist groupWeek (week)Taking 3.5 days, the idle rate beta of the vehicleLeisure time0.05 is taken, and the number gamma of vehicles used by each tourist group is averagedFinger-shaped1.0, vehicle turnover rate gammaVehicle with wheelsTake 1.0. The scale demand and composition ratio of the tourism passenger vehicles on the roads of a certain city from 9 months to 7 months in the 1 st year to 3 rd year of decision are calculated by combining the month prediction data, for example, as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3
Table 3 shows the urban road passenger vehicle size demand (i.e., the first demand value described above) for a certain city between 9 and 7 months of decision 1 and 3 years.
The highest value and the lowest value of the data in the table 3 are removed, and then the average value is taken to obtain the recommended value of the scale of the tourism passenger vehicle corresponding to the demand matching method, as shown in the table 4.
TABLE 4
Table 4 shows the dimensions and the values constituting the recommendations (demand matching method) for touring passenger vehicles in a city at the 3 rd year of decision.
(2) Cost-benefit analysis method
According to the sampling survey of the cost and income of passenger enterprises, the average monthly operation of vehicles in provinces and cities is 19.5 days, the monthly operation cost is 19158.5 yuan/vehicle/month, and the daily income is 1375 yuan/vehicle/day; the county vehicles are operated for 18 days on average each month, the monthly operation cost is 26506.5 yuan/vehicle/month, and the daily income is 500 yuan/vehicle/day. And according to the transport economics theory, controlling the industry stability from the industry net profit percentage threshold value. In addition, transportation resource investment needs to meet its demand constraints. For the urban road passenger transport tourism industry, transportation resources of the urban road passenger transport tourism industry mainly comprise vehicle investment and other cost investment, and the requirement mainly considers the total number of people in monthly tourism. The net profit percentage index of a certain urban road passenger transport tourism industry is established in sequence, and the formula is as follows:
in the formula:
beta-percentage net profit in the tourism passenger transport industry;
ζ -the percentage of net profit for the tourism passenger transport industry required for maintenance industry stability;
in addition, the total number of people in the tourism passenger transport demand constraint formula is as follows:
in the formula:
According to the statistical data related to the tourist bureau of a certain city, 2014-decision can be obtained during the 3 rd year
The value is 25 ten thousand times per month,
The value is 15 thousands of people/month, and the minimum vehicle scale of a certain city at present can be calculated by combining the two requirement constraint formulas to obtain 800 vehicles between provinces and cities and 200 vehicles between counties and cities. Based on this, the percentage change in net profit for the industry resulting from the increase in size of the different types of vehicles is plotted, as shown in fig. 3 and 4.
Fig. 3 and fig. 4 show the optimal vehicle structure condition corresponding to the net profit percentage of the road tourism passenger transport industry taking a certain value. According to the transport economics theory, in order to maintain the stability of the industry, the percentage threshold value of net profits of the required tourism passenger transport industry is 0-15%. Therefore, the net profit percentage of the urban road passenger transport tourism industry is negative and is in a very unstable state under the current vehicle structure. By analysis, the vehicle-scale structural requirements (i.e., the second requirement value) at the lowest industry stability point (the percentage net profit threshold for the passenger travel industry is taken to be 0) are given in the figure as: provincial and city vehicles 1060, county and city vehicles 460.
According to the cost-benefit analysis method, if the adjustment of the vehicle structure in the whole city needs to be carried out, the initial goal of stable income of the industry is needed, the scale of the vehicles between the province and the city must be increased, and the scale of the vehicles between the counties and the city is reduced at the same time, so that the trade situation of the twisted-loss and the surplus can be realized. The scale and structural proportion of the tourism passenger vehicles on the urban road in the 3 rd year of decision obtained by the cost analysis method form a scheme, as shown in table 5.
TABLE 5
(3) Comprehensive adjusting method for traffic capacity allocation scheme of road tourism passenger vehicle
The quantity of the road tourism passenger vehicles is controlled to increase according to the former two methods, and the total quantity of the road tourism passenger vehicles is controlled within a certain numerical range at a certain planning time stage, so that the quantity of the inter-city vehicles and the target value of the inter-county vehicles are distributed. By combining the two methods, the final recommended configuration scheme of the tourism passenger vehicle on the road of a certain city in the planning year is obtained by averaging all projects and setting the required value floating interval as shown in table 6.
TABLE 6
Table 6 shows the dimensions of the touring passenger vehicles in a city of the planned year and the final recommended plans (i.e., the road touring passenger vehicle arrangement).
According to the scheme, the method adopts the cost-benefit analysis model to solve the problem that the parameters of the traditional method cannot be verified and acquired according to the change condition of the road tourism passenger volume, effectively verifies the parameters such as the elastic coefficient and the like, and has good stability. Meanwhile, the defect that the traditional method cannot be matched with the dynamic road passenger transport tourism demand number is overcome by a tourism group matching method. A comprehensive adjustment method is adopted, and a mode of human experience plus numerical calculation is introduced, so that the problems of stability and reliability of the traditional prediction model are solved. Can match the real-time change of the road tourism passenger transport demand.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the modules and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented as electronic hardware, or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
It is clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described apparatuses and devices may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules is merely a logical division, and in actual implementation, there may be other divisions, for example, multiple modules or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not implemented. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or modules, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The modules described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as modules may or may not be physical modules, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network modules. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment of the present invention.
In addition, each functional module in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing module, or each module may exist alone physically, or two or more modules may be integrated into one module.
The functions, if implemented in the form of software functional modules and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute all or part of the steps of the method for transmitting/receiving the power saving signal according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: various media capable of storing program codes, such as a U disk, a removable hard disk, a ROM, a RAM, a magnetic disk, or an optical disk.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the application and is illustrative of the principles of the technology employed. It will be appreciated by a person skilled in the art that the scope of the invention as referred to in the present application is not limited to the embodiments with a specific combination of the above-mentioned features, but also covers other embodiments with any combination of the above-mentioned features or their equivalents without departing from the inventive concept. For example, the above features may be replaced with (but not limited to) features having similar functions disclosed in the present application.
It should be understood that the order of execution of the steps in the summary of the invention and the embodiments of the present invention does not absolutely imply any order of execution, and the order of execution of the steps should be determined by their functions and inherent logic, and should not be construed as limiting the process of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for configuring a road tourism passenger vehicle, comprising:
predicting the travel condition of a certain road, and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
calculating to obtain a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
and obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein said calculating the first demand value of the on-road passenger vehicle according to the predicted value comprises:
acquiring the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers of a first time period of a certain road;
predicting the total amount and the composition ratio of the tourist groups and the tourist numbers in the second time period of the road;
establishing a demand model of the road tourism passenger vehicle based on the forecast quantity;
calculating the total scale and composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicles in the first time period and the second time period by utilizing the model;
and the average value after the maximum value and the minimum value in the data of the scale and the composition proportion of the tourism passenger vehicle are removed is the first requirement value.
3. The method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle as claimed in claim 2, wherein said demand model of the road touring passenger vehicle has the formula:
wherein: vt-size of touring passenger vehicle required by the whole city, unit: vehicles (tables);
γp-the peak coefficient of the tourist groups at home and abroad in months;
γw-travel period duration of tourist group, unit: day;
βs-average vehicle idle rate;
γcvehicle turnover rate, i.e. race rate, refers to the number of tourist groups that a vehicle can serve on average one day;
γiaverage number of vehicles used per tourist group, related to team size.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the second demand value of the tourism passenger vehicle according to the total passenger demand of tourism passenger transport and the transport resource investment of passenger transport unit comprises:
calculating the net profit percentage index of the road tourism passenger transport industry;
calculating a minimum vehicle demand;
based on the lowest vehicle, increasing the number of vehicles and calculating the net profit percentage of the corresponding road tourism passenger transport industry;
selecting the second demand value for the touring passenger vehicle according to a road touring passenger transport industry percentage net profit threshold.
5. The method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle according to claim 4, wherein the formula for calculating the percentage net profit index for the road touring passenger transport industry is as follows:
wherein beta is the net profit percentage of the tourism passenger transport industry;
ζ is the percentage threshold of net profits of the tourism passenger transport industry required for maintaining the stability of the industry;
x is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the number of required operational county-level touring passenger vehicles.
6. The method as claimed in claim 4, wherein said minimum vehicle demand satisfies said Total passenger travel demand constraint, said Total passenger travel demand constraint being formulated as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the average travel time of the province and city team tourists is 3.5 days by multiplying the maximum province and city tour number requirement value of a single month by 3.5;
x is the number of the interurban tourism passenger vehicles which need to be operated;
y is the number of required operational county-level touring passenger vehicles.
7. The method for configuring a road touring passenger vehicle according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the average value of the first demand value and the second demand value is obtained while matching a demand value floating section including the average value to obtain the road touring passenger vehicle configuration scenario.
8. A road tourism passenger vehicle deployment system comprising:
the first data processing module is used for predicting the travel condition of a certain road and calculating to obtain a first demand value of the travel passenger vehicle of the certain road according to the predicted value;
the second data processing module is used for calculating a second demand value of the tourist passenger vehicle on the road according to the total passenger demand of the tourist passenger transport and the transport resource investment of the passenger transport unit;
and the vehicle capacity configuration module is used for obtaining a road tourism passenger vehicle configuration scheme according to the first demand value, the second demand value and the matched demand value floating interval.
9. An electronic device, comprising:
at least one processor; and
a memory coupled to the at least one processor; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor to implement the method of any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium is used to store a computer program, which when executed is capable of implementing the method of any one of claims 1-7.
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