CN112417589B - Satellite steady-state availability computing method - Google Patents
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Abstract
According to the type of the satellite in-orbit safety mode, the probability of entering each safety mode of the satellite is calculated by combining the fault tree analysis result of each safety mode and the statistics of occurrence probability of bottom events, and then the relative occurrence probability of entering each safety mode of the satellite is obtained. And counting the average duration time of entering each safety mode and the average interval time of entering the safety mode twice of the on-orbit similar model. The relative occurrence probability of all the safety modes is multiplied by the average duration time and then accumulated to obtain the average interruption time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode, and the steady-state availability of the satellite is obtained by subtracting the average interruption time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode from the interval time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode and dividing the average interruption time by the interval time of the satellite entering the two-time safety mode.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a satellite steady-state availability computing method, and belongs to the technical field of satellite overall design.
Background
For satellites, they are generally not repairable in orbit, which is a non-repairable product that generally emphasizes reliability and disregards availability. In recent years, with the increase of export models, foreign (especially, the European and air authorities) are found to pay more attention to satellite availability during foreign communication, and the satellite user experience is paid more attention to than domestic. At present, domestic satellites have no availability index and corresponding calculation method, which encounters a plurality of problems when bearing the model of export.
Availability refers to the degree to which a product is in an operating or usable state when it needs to be used at any random time, and the probability is used to measure the degree, namely the availability. The availability generally includes a fraction of the steady state availability, which is used to represent the probability that the product is in an operational or operational state at a particular time, and the transient availability, which is used to represent the proportion of the time that the product is in an operational or operational state for a period of time, which is the total time, and the specific calculation method is very diverse. The invention provides a satellite steady-state availability computing method based on a safety mode.
Various problems are inevitably present when satellites are in orbit. The satellite enters a safe mode when serious problems occur and the satellite cannot be independently solved in orbit, and the service is interrupted, so that the safety of the whole satellite is ensured. After the ground fault is checked, the service can be recovered normally after the corresponding measures and the remote control operation are determined. It can be considered that the satellite enters the security mode in orbit, namely the service is interrupted, and the service is recovered from the security mode. The in-orbit steady-state availability of the satellite may be calculated by calculating the ratio of the average break-off time per entry of the satellite into the safe mode to the average break-off time per entry into the safe mode.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems that: the method solves the problem that domestic satellites have no availability related indexes and no applicable analysis and calculation method for satellite availability indexes. According to the type of the satellite in-orbit safety mode, the probability of entering each safety mode of the satellite is calculated by combining the fault tree analysis result of each safety mode and statistics of occurrence probability of bottom events, and then the relative occurrence probability of entering each safety mode of the satellite is obtained. And counting the average duration time of entering each safety mode and the average interval time of entering the safety mode of the on-orbit similar model. The relative occurrence probability of all the safety modes is multiplied by the average duration time and then accumulated to obtain the average interruption time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode, and the steady-state availability of the satellite is obtained by subtracting the average interruption time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode from the average interval time of the satellite entering the one-time safety mode and dividing the average interruption time of the satellite entering the safety mode. The method solves the problems that the availability requirements of the users with external export models have no corresponding indexes and can not be analyzed and verified under the condition that the current domestic satellites have no availability indexes and no availability index calculation method.
The invention aims at realizing the following technical scheme:
a satellite steady-state availability computing method comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a fault tree by taking each security mode in the satellite in-orbit security modes as a top event;
s2, according to the fault tree, counting the occurrence probability of each bottom event, and calculating the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode;
s3, calculating the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
s4, counting based on time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode;
s5, calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode;
s6, determining the steady-state availability of the satellite by using the average interval time of the satellite entering the safety mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode.
In the above satellite steady-state availability calculation method, preferably, in S3, the method for calculating the relative occurrence probability of each security mode is as follows:
P si representing the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode, P i Indicating the probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
In the above method for calculating the steady-state availability of the satellite, preferably, in S4, the method for calculating the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode is as follows:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit run time of each satellite counted by the current time, c represents the counted total number of times all satellites are in orbit into a safe mode.
In the above method for calculating the steady-state availability of the satellite, preferably, in S4, the method for calculating the average duration of time for the satellite to enter each security mode is as follows:
t in j Representing the duration of each time a satellite enters the secure mode, d represents the number of times that the satellite enters the secure mode by all statistics up to the present.
In the above method for calculating the steady-state availability of the satellite, preferably, in S5, the method for calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary security mode is as follows:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P si ) MDT represents the average outage time of a satellite into a one-time security mode, MDT i Average interruption time, P, representing satellite entering one time i-th security mode si Indicating the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
In the above satellite steady-state availability calculation method, preferably, in S6, the satellite steady-state availability calculation method is as follows:
a denotes steady state availability of the satellite, MDT denotes average outage time of the satellite into one safe mode, mtfsm denotes average interval time of the satellite into safe mode.
The satellite steady-state availability computing device comprises a probability computing module 1, a probability computing module 2, a statistics module, an average interruption time computing module and a steady-state availability computing module;
the probability calculation module 1 calculates the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of each bottom event counted by the fault tree;
the probability calculation module 2 calculates the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
the statistics module is used for counting time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode;
the average interrupt time calculation module calculates the average interrupt time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode;
the steady-state availability calculation module determines the steady-state availability of the satellite by using the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safe mode.
Preferably, the method for calculating the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode by the satellite steady-state availability calculating device comprises the following steps:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit running time of each satellite counted by the current time, c representing the counted total number of times that all satellites enter a safe mode in orbit;
the method for calculating the average duration of the satellite entering each security mode is as follows:
t in j Representing the duration of each time a satellite enters the secure mode, d represents the number of times that the satellite enters the secure mode by all statistics up to the present.
In the above satellite steady-state availability calculating device, preferably, the method for calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary security mode comprises the following steps:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P si ) MDT represents the average outage time of a satellite into a one-time security mode, MDT i Average interruption time, P, representing satellite entering one time i-th security mode si Indicating the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
In the above satellite steady-state availability calculating device, preferably, the satellite steady-state availability calculating method comprises:
a denotes steady state availability of the satellite, MDT denotes average outage time of the satellite into one safe mode, mtfsm denotes average interval time of the satellite into safe mode.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) The method provides the steady-state availability as the availability index of the satellite in-orbit operation, and solves the problem that the domestic satellite does not have the availability index at present.
(2) The on-orbit average interruption time of the satellite is counted through the satellite entering and exiting the safety mode, so that the method is convenient for counting data and analyzing and calculating.
(3) The average outage time of the satellite entering the one-time security mode can be calculated by calculating the relative occurrence probability of the satellite entering each security mode to characterize the probability that each in-orbit entry of the satellite into the security mode is a specific security mode.
(4) The steady state availability of the satellite in the interval time between the average twice-entering safety modes is calculated to represent the steady state availability of the satellite in the whole in-orbit period, so that the difficulty of analysis and calculation is reduced, and the analysis and calculation has good practical operability.
(5) The interruption time of the satellite entering the once safety mode on average is calculated by utilizing a large amount of statistical data of similar models which are already in on-orbit operation, and the average interval time of the satellite entering the safety mode is calculated, so that the analysis and calculation result is closer to the real situation and more accurate.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a fault tree analysis diagram of a first security mode of the embodiment.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
A satellite steady-state availability computing method comprises the following steps:
s1, establishing a fault tree by taking each security mode in the satellite in-orbit security modes as a top event;
s2, according to the fault tree, counting the occurrence probability of each bottom event, and calculating the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode;
s3, calculating the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
s4, counting based on time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode;
s5, calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode;
s6, determining the steady-state availability of the satellite by using the average interval time of the satellite entering the safety mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode.
The satellite steady-state availability computing device comprises a probability computing module 1, a probability computing module 2, a statistics module, an average interruption time computing module and a steady-state availability computing module;
the probability calculation module 1 calculates the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of each bottom event counted by the fault tree;
the probability calculation module 2 calculates the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
the statistics module is used for counting time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode;
the average interrupt time calculation module calculates the average interrupt time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode;
the steady-state availability calculation module determines the steady-state availability of the satellite by using the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safe mode.
As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the method for calculating the relative occurrence probability of each security mode is as follows:
P si representing the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode, P i Indicating the probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
As a preferred scheme of the invention, the method for calculating the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode comprises the following steps:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit run time of each satellite counted by the current time, c represents the counted total number of times all satellites are in orbit into a safe mode.
As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the method for calculating the average duration of time for the satellite to enter each security mode is as follows:
t in j Representing the duration of each time a satellite enters the secure mode, d represents the number of times that the satellite enters the secure mode by all statistics up to the present.
As a preferable scheme of the invention, the method for calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode comprises the following steps:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P si ) MDT represents the average outage time of a satellite into a one-time security mode, MDT i Average interruption time, P, representing satellite entering one time i-th security mode si Indicating the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
As a preferable scheme of the invention, the method for calculating the steady-state availability of the satellite comprises the following steps:
a denotes steady state availability of the satellite, MDT denotes average outage time of the satellite into one safe mode, mtfsm denotes average interval time of the satellite into safe mode.
Examples:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method according to the present invention, and the method for calculating the steady-state availability of a satellite according to the present invention includes the following specific steps:
(1) Sequentially selecting one safety mode from the satellite in-orbit safety modes as a top event for fault tree analysis until the occurrence probability of the bottom event can be counted;
(2) According to the analysis result of the fault tree, the occurrence probability of each bottom event is counted, and the occurrence probability P of the top event is calculated i I.e. the probability that the satellite is in orbit into the safe mode. If there is insufficient bottom event statistics, failure rate data in the reliability prediction can be used to calculate its occurrence probability;
(3) The occurrence probability of all the safety modes is calculated in turn, and the relative occurrence probability P of each safety mode is calculated according to the following formula Si ：
(4) Counting the time and the times of the similar model entering the safe mode in orbit, and calculating the average interval time MTBSM of the satellite entering the safe mode according to the following formula:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit run time of each satellite counted by the current time, c represents the counted total number of times all satellites are in orbit into a safe mode.
Calculating the average duration MDT of the satellite entering each security mode according to the following formula i ：
T in j Representing the duration of a satellite entering the secure mode once, d represents the number of times all satellites have entered the secure mode up to the current statistics.
(5) According to the relative occurrence probability P of each security mode Si And an average duration MDT for each security mode i The average break time MDT for the satellite to enter a once-safe mode is calculated according to the following formula:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P si )。
s6, calculating the steady-state availability A of the satellite according to the following formula:
specifically, taking a certain optical remote sensing satellite based on a CAST-2000 platform as an example, the space Oriental red satellite limited company:
(1) And sequentially selecting one safety mode from the satellite in-orbit safety modes as a top event for fault tree analysis until the occurrence probability can be counted by bottom event analysis. The overall in-orbit security mode for this satellite is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1
| Sequence number | On-track security mode name |
| 1 | Energy safety mode |
| 2 | Payload security mode |
| 3 | Gesture control safety mode |
| 4 | BAPTA locked rotor safety mode |
| 5 | Whole-satellite side-sway abnormal safety mode |
| 6 | Whole-satellite fuel-saving safety mode |
| 7 | Star sensor pose determination abnormal mode |
| 8 | Star host security mode |
| 9 | Bus communication abnormal safety mode |
| 10 | CFI device exception security mode |
Taking the first security mode in table 1 as an example, the fault tree analysis chart is shown in fig. 2.
(2) According to the analysis result of the fault tree, the occurrence probability of each bottom event is counted, and the occurrence probability P of the top event is calculated i I.e. the probability that the satellite is in orbit into the safe mode. Taking the first security mode as an example, according to the analysis result of fig. 2, the occurrence probability of each bottom event is counted as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2
| Sequence number | Bottom event name | Probability of occurrence |
| 1 | Bus voltage is too low | 0.000138 |
| 2 | The battery pack voltage is too low | 0.000140 |
| 3 | The current electric quantity of the storage battery pack is too low | 0.000156 |
| 4 | The temperature of the storage battery pack is too high | 0.000155 |
According to the fault tree logic relationship of FIG. 2, the occurrence probability P of the top event is given that the bottom events are independent of each other and are in a parallel relationship i The calculation is as follows:
P i ＝1-(1-P bus voltage is too low )×(1-P The battery pack voltage is too low )×(1-P The current electric quantity of the storage battery pack is too low )×(1-P The temperature of the storage battery pack is too high )＝0.000589
(3) The probability of occurrence of all security modes is calculated in turn. The relative occurrence probability P of each security mode is calculated according to the following formula Si ：
The analysis and calculation process of other safety modes is omitted, and after all safety mode analysis is completed, all safety modes occurProbability P i And relative occurrence probability P Si The summary is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 3 Table 3
(4) Counting the time and the times of the similar model entering the safe mode in orbit, and calculating the average interval time MTBSM of the satellite entering the safe mode according to the following formula:
according to statistics, the MTBSM of the optical remote sensing satellite of the CAST-2000 platform is 75.147 days and 1803.529 hours.
Calculating the average duration MDT of the satellite entering each security mode according to the following formula i ：
Based on statistics, the average duration of the in-orbit satellites of the CAST-2000 platform optical remote sensing satellite entering each security mode is shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 Table 4
| Sequence number | On-track security mode name | Average duration of |
| 1 | Energy safety mode | 57.6 hours |
| 2 | Payload security mode | 38.4 hours |
| 3 | Gesture control safety mode | 67.2 hours |
| 4 | BAPTA locked rotor safety mode | 134.4 hours |
| 5 | Whole-satellite side-sway abnormal safety mode | 60 hours |
| 6 | Whole-satellite fuel-saving safety mode | 244.8 hours |
| 7 | Star sensor pose determination abnormal mode | 76.8 hours |
| 8 | Star host security mode | 24 hours |
| 9 | Bus communication abnormal safety mode | 28.8 hours |
| 10 | CFI device exception security mode | For 12 hours |
(5) According to the relative occurrence probability P of each security mode Si And an average duration MDT for each security mode i The average break time MDT for the satellite to enter a once-safe mode is calculated according to the following formula:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P si ). Based on the above analysis and statistics, the average outage time MDT for the satellite to enter one safe mode was 45.90799 hours, as shown in table 5.
TABLE 5
(6) The steady state availability a of the satellite is calculated according to the following formula:
the steady state availability of the satellite is calculated as:
A＝1-45.90799/1803.529＝0.974545≈97.45％。
what is not described in detail in the present specification is a well known technology to those skilled in the art.
Although the present invention has been described in terms of the preferred embodiments, it is not intended to be limited to the embodiments, and any person skilled in the art can make any possible variations and modifications to the technical solution of the present invention by using the methods and technical matters disclosed above without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, so any simple modifications, equivalent variations and modifications to the embodiments described above according to the technical matters of the present invention are within the scope of the technical matters of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. The satellite steady-state availability computing method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, establishing a fault tree by taking each security mode in the satellite in-orbit security modes as a top event;
s2, according to the fault tree, counting the occurrence probability of each bottom event, and calculating the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode;
s3, calculating the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
s4, counting based on time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode; the method for calculating the average duration of the satellite entering each security mode is as follows:
MDT in i Average interruption time T representing satellite entering into ith safe mode once j Representing the duration of each time a satellite enters the secure mode, d representing the number of times that all the currently counted satellites enter the secure mode;
the average interval time method for the satellite to enter the safe mode is as follows:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit running time of each satellite counted by the current time, c representing the counted total number of times that all satellites enter a safe mode in orbit;
s5, calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode; the method for calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode comprises the following steps:
MDT＝∑(MDT i ×P Si ) MDT represents the average interruption time of the satellite into one-time security mode, P si Representing the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode;
s6, determining the steady-state availability of the satellite by utilizing the average interval time of the satellite entering the safety mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode, wherein the steady-state availability of the satellite is specifically as follows:
a denotes steady state availability of the satellite, MDT denotes average outage time of the satellite into one safe mode, mtfsm denotes average interval time of the satellite into safe mode.
2. The method for calculating the steady-state availability of satellites according to claim 1, wherein in S3, the method for calculating the relative occurrence probability of each security mode is as follows:
P si representing the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode, P i Indicating the probability of occurrence of the ith security mode.
3. The satellite steady-state availability computing device is characterized by comprising a probability computing module 1, a probability computing module 2, a statistics module, an average interruption time computing module and a steady-state availability computing module;
the probability calculation module 1 calculates the occurrence probability of each top event, namely the occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of each bottom event counted by the fault tree;
the probability calculation module 2 calculates the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode according to the occurrence probability of all the safety modes;
the statistics module is used for counting time and times of entering a safety mode by a satellite in orbit in the existing data, and obtaining average interval time of entering the safety mode by the satellite and average duration time of each safety mode; the method for calculating the average duration of the satellite entering each security mode is as follows:
MDT in i Average interruption time T representing satellite entering into ith safe mode once j Representing the duration of each time a satellite enters the secure mode, d representing the number of times that all the currently counted satellites enter the secure mode;
the average interrupt time calculation module calculates the average interrupt time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode according to the relative occurrence probability of each safety mode and the average duration time of each safety mode; the method for calculating the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode comprises the following steps:
MDT=∑(MDT i ×P si ) MDT represents the average interruption time of the satellite into one-time security mode, P si Representing the relative probability of occurrence of the ith security mode;
the steady-state availability computing module determines the steady-state availability of the satellite by utilizing the average interval time of the satellite entering the safety mode and the average interruption time of the satellite entering the primary safety mode; the method for calculating the average interval time of the satellite entering the safe mode comprises the following steps:
t in i Representing the accumulated in-orbit running time of each satellite counted by the current time, c representing the counted total number of times that all satellites enter a safe mode in orbit;
the method for calculating the steady-state availability of the satellite comprises the following steps:
a denotes steady state availability of the satellite, MDT denotes average outage time of the satellite into one safe mode, mtfsm denotes average interval time of the satellite into safe mode.
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| 卫星导航系统星座可用性分析;郑恒;李海生;杨卓鹏;;航天控制(第03期);全文 * |
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| CN112417589A (en) | 2021-02-26 |
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