CN112396305A - Method for determining risk level of dam of cascade reservoir group - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining a risk level of a dam of a cascade reservoir group. According to the method, firstly, through identification and risk combination analysis of risk factors of a cascade reservoir group dam, failure probability is calculated by adopting a reliability method, and then indexes are divided according to the risk probability grades provided by the invention to determine the risk probability grades; secondly, determining the risk loss grade of the cascade reservoir group dam by estimating possible life loss, economic loss, social influence and environmental influence after the cascade reservoir group dam is burst and according to the risk loss grade division index provided by the invention; and finally, comprehensively considering the risk probability and the risk loss of the step reservoir group dam, dividing indexes according to the risk level provided by the invention, and determining the risk level of the step reservoir group dam by adopting a risk matrix. The method realizes the determination of the risk level of the dam of the cascade reservoir group from the safety aspect of the drainage basin system, and provides technical support for the risk classification management and the system risk prevention and control of the dam of the cascade reservoir group in the drainage basin.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of water conservancy and hydropower engineering, in particular to a method for determining a risk grade of a step reservoir group dam, which is a step reservoir group dam risk grade division standard and determination method considering risk probability and risk loss under a watershed scale.
Background
The development and construction of the cascade reservoir group not only provides strong power for national water resource regulation and control, clean power supply, climate change coping and sustainable development of economy and society, but also plays a positive role in agricultural irrigation, urban water supply, flood control and disaster reduction, ecological environment improvement, shipping and the like. Meanwhile, once landslide and river blockage, over-standard flood or dam break event occur in the cascade reservoir group, continuous overtopping and dam break of the downstream cascade reservoir group can be easily caused, and great threat is caused to the life and property safety of people along the bank of the watershed.
At present, the research results of risk analysis of a single step are abundant, but the research results of risk analysis and evaluation of a step reservoir group taking a drainage basin as a research range are less. Compared with a single cascade, the system risk source identification of the cascade group of the drainage basin is more complex, the disaster chain is longer, and the influence degree is larger. Under the scale of a watershed, if a disaster chain of flood caused by any step dam break cannot be effectively cut off in time, a domino effect is inevitable, and the loss caused by the domino effect cannot be borne. In order to prevent the river basin cascade reservoir group from breaking the dam, the risk of each cascade reservoir is analyzed and evaluated from the perspective of a river basin system, the risk level is determined, and then the cascade dams with different risk levels are subjected to corresponding risk control measures, so that the risk classification control is realized, and the overall safety of the river basin cascade reservoir group is ensured.
The step reservoir group dam risk level determination can adopt a risk matrix method, and the difficulty is to analyze the accident risk probability and the corresponding risk loss of each step dam. The risk probability can be calculated and analyzed by adopting a reliability method, and the risk loss comprises life loss, economic loss, environmental influence and social influence and can be calculated and determined by a method of item-by-item estimation.
Disclosure and effects of the invention
The existing method and the disadvantages thereof
The prior method comprises the following steps: water conservancy and hydropower engineering grade division standard
1) Water conservancy industry
The current water conservancy and hydropower engineering grade division and flood standard (SL252-2017) determines the engineering grade according to the engineering scale, benefit and importance in the economic society, and the like, and concretely refers to Table 1.
TABLE 1 Hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering grading index
The classes of permanent structures of reservoir and hydropower works are determined according to the project class and the importance of the structure, as detailed in table 2. In addition, for the reservoir dam specified as class 2 or class 3 in table 2, if the dam height exceeds the index specified in table 3, the level can be increased by one.
TABLE 2 permanent Hydraulic building grades
| Engineering classification | Major buildings | Of secondary importanceBuilding construction |
| Ⅰ | 1 | 3 |
| Ⅱ | 2 | 3 |
| Ⅲ | 3 | 4 |
| IV | 4 | 5 |
| V | 5 | 5 |
TABLE 3 index for upgrading dam
2) Hydropower industry
The classification of the current hydropower hub project and the design safety standard (DL5180-2003) determine the project grade according to the project scale, the total reservoir capacity and the installed capacity, and the details are shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4 grading index for hydroelectric junction projects
The grade of the permanent hydraulic structure of the hydropower project is determined according to the grade of the project and the like and the function and the importance of the structure in the project, and is detailed in table 5. The dam of Table 5 identified as class 2 and class 3 may be rated one higher when the dam height exceeds the criteria listed in Table 6.
TABLE 5 permanent Hydraulic building grades
TABLE 6 dam height index for increasing damming building grade
In addition, the hydropower industry can improve the level of 2-5 permanent hydraulic buildings with huge loss or serious influence after accident through special demonstration.
Disadvantages of the first conventional method
At present, the method for dividing the engineering grade of a reservoir dam and the grade of a building in the water conservancy industry and the hydropower industry are basically consistent, the engineering grade is determined according to the functions of engineering scale, reservoir capacity, flood prevention tasks, installed capacity and the like, the grade of the building is determined according to the engineering grade and the importance of the building in the engineering, and then the corresponding design safety standard is selected according to the grade and the type of the building. The method is suitable for designing a single reservoir dam with a deterministic situation, can provide basis for engineering design, and has the following defects:
1) uncertainty of risk faced by reservoir dam operation is not considered. The identification of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering and the like and the building grade are mainly determined according to the scale, the functional target and the importance thereof, the possible deterministic load is taken as a fortification target during the selection of the design standard, the uncertainty of the operation risk is not considered, and the combination of various functions is not considered. If an earthquake occurs, the earthquake meets with rainstorm flood and the like.
2) Failure to consider the safety level of a single step dam from the standpoint of watershed system safety, such that each step reservoir dam may be at a different risk level. For flood and earthquake, the method determines the fortification standard by the project itself, and the project with small scale has weak risk resistance. Such selection criteria are basically reasonable in terms of individual steps. However, in the drainage basin scale, the cascade which does not meet the drainage basin risk standard is likely to become a weak cascade to trigger the dam break risk, and if the dam break flood cannot be effectively intercepted, the domino effect is inevitably generated, and the safety problem of the drainage basin system is caused.
The prior method II comprises the following steps: reservoir dam safety classification identification
1) Water conservancy industry
The existing reservoir dam safety identification method divides dam safety conditions into three categories, and the standards are as follows:
one type of dam: the actual flood fighting standard reaches the regulations of flood control Standard (GB50201), and the dam works normally; the project has no major quality problem, and the dam can normally operate according to the design.
A second type of dam: the actual flood resistance standard is not lower than the flood standard which is very applied in the near term by the danger removal and reinforcement of the hydro-junction engineering issued by the ministry, but can not reach the regulation of flood control standard (GB 50201); the dam has a basically normal working state and can safely run under certain control and application conditions.
Three types of dams: actual flood resistance standard is lower than the flood standard which is very applied recently for danger removal and reinforcement of the ministry-issued hydro junction engineering, or the engineering has serious potential safety hazard and can not normally operate according to the design.
2) Hydropower industry
The existing 'hydropower station dam operation safety supervision and management regulation' divides the dam safety level into a normal dam, a diseased dam and a dangerous dam. The criteria are as follows:
a dam meeting the following criteria was rated as a normal dam: (1) the flood control capacity meets the standard requirements; or the flood control capacity under the condition of very high use is slightly insufficient, but the safety risk of the dam is low and controllable; (2) the dam foundation is good; or the dam is safe as a whole although local defects exist but the trend is not worsened; (3) the safety degree of the dam structure meets the standard requirement; or slightly insufficient, but the dam has low and controllable safety risk; (4) the operation state of the dam is totally normal; (5) the near dam bank and the engineering side slope are stable or basically stable.
A dam having one of the following conditions, rated as a sick dam: (1) the flood control capacity under the normal operation condition is slightly insufficient, but the risk is lower; or the flood control capacity under the condition of very good use is insufficient, and the risk is higher; (2) the dam foundation has local defects and tends to deteriorate, so that the overall safety of the dam is possibly endangered; (3) the safety degree of the dam structure does not meet the standard requirement, so that safety risk exists, and the overall safety of the dam is possibly endangered; (4) the operation state of the dam is abnormal, so that safety risks exist, and the overall safety of the dam is possibly endangered; (5) near dam bank and engineering side slope have the sign of unstability, influence the normal application of engineering after the unstability.
A dam having one of the following conditions, rated as a dam: (1) the flood control capacity is insufficient under the normal operation condition, and the risk is high; or the flood control capacity is insufficient under the condition of very high use, and the risk is very high; (2) the defects existing in the dam foundation are continuously deteriorated, so that the safety of the dam is endangered; (3) the safety degree of the dam structure seriously does not meet the standard requirement, and the whole safety of the dam is endangered; (4) accident signs exist in the dam; (5) near dam bank or engineering side slope has the sign of instability, endangers dam safety after the instability.
The second method has the defects of
1) The severity of the loss of reservoir dam accident consequences is not considered. The safety of the reservoir dam is evaluated only from the aspects of whether the flood control capacity meets the standard requirements, whether the dam has quality problems, whether the dam operation performance is good and the like, but the consequent loss and the severity which are possibly caused after the reservoir dam is lost are not considered.
2) The safety of the dam engineering is only evaluated from the structural safety of the dam engineering, the failure probability and the severity of consequence loss of the dam structure are not comprehensively considered, and the reliability of the dam engineering is comprehensively evaluated from the risk perspective. Risks are objectively present and absolutely safe engineering is not. Therefore, a risk analysis and evaluation method is adopted for evaluating the safety level of the cascade reservoir dam, and the reliability of the cascade reservoir dam is comprehensively evaluated.
3) Failure to consider the safety level of a single step dam from the standpoint of watershed system safety, such that each step reservoir dam may be at a different risk level. For flood and earthquake, the method determines the fortification standard by the project itself, and the project with small scale has weak risk resistance. Such selection criteria are basically reasonable in terms of individual steps. However, in the drainage basin scale, the cascade which does not meet the drainage basin risk standard is likely to become a weak cascade to trigger the dam break risk, and if the dam break flood cannot be effectively intercepted, the domino effect is inevitably generated, and the safety problem of the drainage basin system is caused.
Disclosure of Invention
According to the cascade reservoir group dam risk classification method, the collapse risk probability and the potential risk loss of the cascade reservoir group dam are comprehensively considered from the safety level of a drainage basin system, the risk matrix is adopted to classify according to the dam risk probability and the risk loss severity, the cascade reservoir group dam risk grade is determined, and scientific basis is provided for cascade reservoir group dam risk grade management and system improvement of the overall safety level of the cascade reservoir group.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a method for determining the risk level of a step reservoir group dam comprises at least two or more dams, and comprises the following steps:
1) calculating the failure probability of the step reservoir group dam by adopting a reliability method, and determining the risk probability grade of the step reservoir group dam according to the risk probability grade division indexes provided by the invention;
2) estimating possible life loss, economic loss, social influence and environmental influence after the cascade reservoir group dam is burst, and determining the risk loss grade of the cascade reservoir group dam according to the loss grade division indexes provided by the invention;
3) and comprehensively considering the risk probability and the risk loss of the dam of the cascade reservoir group, and determining the risk level of the dam of the cascade reservoir group by adopting a risk matrix according to the risk level division indexes provided by the invention.
In the above technical scheme, preferably, the failure probability of the step reservoir group dam is calculated by adopting a reliability method, namely
In the above technical scheme, preferably, the risk probability grade division indexes of the cascade reservoir group dam are five grades of 'almost impossible', 'unlikely', 'possible', 'likely', 'highly likely' in turn from small to large according to the possibility, the grades are determined to be 1-5, and the values of the corresponding risk probabilities are shown in table 7.
TABLE 7 Risk probability rankings index
| Possibility of | Is almost impossible to use | Is unlikely to be | Can make it possible to | Is likely to be | Is very likely to |
| Probability level | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Probability value | ≤10-5 | 10-5～10-4 | 10-4～10-3 | 10-3～10-2 | ≥10-2 |
In the above technical solution, preferably, the indexes of the cascade reservoir group dam risk loss grade division are divided into five grades of "general", "large", "significant", "particularly significant" and "catastrophic" according to the severity thereof, which are respectively determined as a to E, according to the life loss, the economic loss, the social influence and the environmental influence, and the corresponding consequences are described in table 8.
TABLE 8 Risk loss grading index
In the above technical solution, preferably, the risk level of the step reservoir group dam is classified into four levels, i.e., high (i), high (ii), medium (iii), and low (iv), in consideration of the risk probability and the severity of the corresponding risk loss, as shown in table 9.
TABLE 9 Risk class criteria
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the method, the dam break risk probability and the risk loss of the cascade reservoir group dam are comprehensively considered under the scale of the watershed, and the risk matrix is adopted to realize quantitative determination of the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam. By determining the risk level, limited risk prevention and control resources are used for the cascade dam with relatively high risk level to improve the overall safety of the drainage basin system, make up the defects that the existing hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering grade division standard and reservoir dam safety category identification only aim at the safety management of a single cascade dam, increase the consideration result loss on the basis that the existing method only considers the engineering safety, more comprehensively evaluate the safety level of each cascade dam, and provide scientific basis for the cascade dam risk management and the overall safety level improvement of the cascade reservoir group by the system.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a histogram of the function and the probability of failure.
Detailed Description
The technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the embodiments described below are only a portion of the invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments obtained without inventive work based on the embodiments of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
Taking A basin cascade stations as an example. The step power station dam built in the basin A improves flood control standards of downstream coastal cities and towns, utilizes water energy to generate electricity, and creates huge economic benefits for supplying water and irrigating to downstream cities and for economic construction of service reservoir areas and downstream areas. However, each step hydroelectric dam has great social and economic benefits and also has a wrecking risk. Once the over-controlled flood occurs, it is necessary to reduce the huge losses and serious disasters to the human life, economy, society and environment of the hydropower engineering itself and the upstream and downstream areas. From the perspective of engineering design, any engineering has certain reliability, and once a certain sudden geological disaster, flood (such as extra rainfall, landslide in reservoir areas and the like), dam body material aging damage, insufficient discharge capacity, improper management and operation, terrorist attack or war cause serious threat to the safety of the dam of the hydropower station along the bank of a river, and even cause dam break accidents by serious people. On the other hand, the limitations of human cognition also make uncertainty and unknown factors in engineering design inevitable. In view of the above, the reservoir dam of each step in the watershed always has a certain accident risk in the use benchmark period.
Therefore, risk analysis and evaluation are carried out on the cascade reservoir dams in the drainage basin, risk levels are determined, and precautionary measures suitable for risks of the cascade reservoir dams with different risk levels are taken, so that the cascade reservoir group dams in the drainage basin are at the same risk level, and reliability of a cascade power station library group system in the whole drainage basin is improved.
1) Probabilistic ranking
If the step reservoir group dam slope anti-skid stability analysis limit state function G is adopted, then
G＝F-1＝F(x1,x2,Lxm)-1＝0
Wherein F is a safety factor expressed as an input parameter x1,x2……xnAs a function of (c). It is clear that F and x1，x2，……xnAre all random variables. When G is less than zero or F is less than 1, the G or F system fails. In FIG. 2F<1 (i.e. G)<0) The area (shaded area in FIG. 2) of (A) is the probability of failure Pf(F<1)。
As can be seen from FIG. 2, once the profile of the distribution curve is determined to be a normal distribution, the shaded area in FIG. 2 is uniquely expressed as the mean μGAnd standard deviation σGAs a function of (c). That is, if the reliability index β is
In the formula, muF、σFMean and standard deviation of the safety factor, respectively.
Then beta can be summed with the probability of failure Pf(F<1) Establishing a corresponding correlation relationship, namely:
Pf(F＜1)＝1-Φ(β)
where Φ (β) is a distribution function of β.
Thus, the reliability index beta and the failure probability PfCan also be used as an index for measuring the reliability of the hydroelectric engineering, beta and PfHave a one-to-one correspondence relationship therebetween.
The basic engineering characteristics of each step and the design safety coefficient of the dam under the normal working condition and the earthquake working condition adopt a reliability method to realize the conversion between the reliability index and the failure probability, and the result is shown in a table 10.
TABLE 10A basic overview of the engineering of each step of the river basin
According to the risk probability level standard of table 7 and the failure probability of each step dam of the watershed a of table 10 under the normal working condition and the earthquake working condition, the probability levels of each step dam under two working conditions can be determined, which is detailed in table 11.
Table 11A river basin each step engineering dam risk probability classification
2) Risk loss ranking
According to the possible submergence range after dam break of each step power station in the A basin, life loss, economic loss, social influence and environmental influence are analyzed and evaluated, and according to the risk loss grading standard of the table 8, the risk loss of each step dam is graded, and the result is shown in the table 12.
Table 12A watershed engineering dam risk loss grading of each step
Note: 1. the loss of life was estimated as 1/1000 for the transferred population.
2. The economic loss is estimated as follows: loss of life (60 ten thousand/person) + emergency transferThe settlement cost of people (1 ten thousand per person) + the evaluation of the disaster-stricken house of 0.4 (30 m per person)2Mean house price of 3000 yuan/m2). Wherein, the life loss is calculated by about 50 ten thousand yuan according to the average payroll frame, and the national government is stable and floats up to 20 percent in consideration of the minority nationality inhabitation area at the coastal region according to 60 ten thousand; average number of people is 30m2According to the frame calculation of immigration survey, the house average price is obtained by considering the frame calculation of house average prices of cities along the line and is unified according to 3000 yuan/m2(ii) a Considering that most houses can be reused after disaster, and a small part of houses are washed out and cannot be used, and need to be rebuilt, 40% of houses are taken as the house rebuilding proportion.
3. The number of transferred population is estimated according to the influence range of dam break and population distribution.
4. Environmental impact is described in terms of the extent of the impact of a dam break and the significant damage that may result.
5. The indexes are only used for reference, and more detailed indexes need to be subjected to on-site large-scale social index statistics.
3) Step reservoir group dam risk level determination
And determining the risk grade of each step dam according to the risk probability grade and the risk loss grade of each step dam and the risk grade determination standard in the table 9. Considering that normal working conditions and earthquake working conditions are design working conditions, the risk loss can be assumed to be basically consistent. Therefore, under the designed normal working condition and earthquake working condition, the risk level of each step power station dam in the A basin is shown in the tables 13 and 14.
Table 13A risk level of each step dam in drainage basin under normal design condition
| Step name | Probability level | Grade of loss | Risk rating |
| D-1 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-2 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-3 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-4 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-5 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-6 | 1 | B | Ⅳ |
| D-7 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-8 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-9 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-10 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-11 | 1 | C | Ⅳ |
| D-12 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-13 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-14 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-15 | 1 | C | Ⅳ |
| D-16 | 1 | C | Ⅳ |
TABLE 14A Risk level of each step dam design in basin under earthquake working condition
| Step name | Probability level | Grade of loss | Risk rating |
| D-1 | 2 | E | Ⅱ |
| D-2 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-3 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-4 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-5 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-6 | 2 | B | Ⅳ |
| D-7 | 2 | E | Ⅱ |
| D-8 | 1 | E | Ⅲ |
| D-9 | 2 | E | Ⅱ |
| D-10 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-11 | 2 | C | Ⅲ |
| D-12 | 1 | D | Ⅲ |
| D-13 | 2 | E | Ⅱ |
| D-14 | 2 | E | Ⅱ |
| D-15 | 2 | C | Ⅲ |
| D-16 | 2 | C | Ⅲ |
The method can use limited risk prevention and control resources for the cascade dams with relatively high risk level by determining the risk level under the scale of the drainage basin, so as to improve the overall safety of the drainage basin system, make up the defect that the prior art I and the prior art II only aim at the safety management of a single cascade dam, increase the consideration result loss on the basis that the prior art I and the prior art II only consider the engineering safety, and more comprehensively evaluate the safety level of each cascade dam. For example, through the risk level determined by the dam of each cascade power station in the A watershed under the design normal working condition and the earthquake working condition, it can be seen that: under the design normal working condition, each step dam is at the middle risk level (III) or below, wherein D-6, D-11, D-15 and D-16 are at the low risk level (IV); and under the designed earthquake working condition, D-1, D-7, D-9, D-13 and D-14 are in a high risk level (II). Therefore, from the perspective of basin system risk management, in the 16-step power station dams in the A basin, the safety management and risk prevention and control of the D-1, D-7, D-9, D-13 and D-14 five-step dams are focused, so that the reliability index of the dams is improved as much as possible, the failure probability is reduced, or the downstream flooding loss is reduced by reducing the engineering scale, or the downstream risk loss is reduced by moving residents downstream, so as to reduce the risk of the five dams when the five dams encounter a design earthquake.
It is obvious that the invention is not restricted to the details of the above-described embodiments. The above-described embodiments should be regarded as illustrative rather than restrictive. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims, and all changes that come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are intended to be embraced therein. Any reference sign in a claim should not be construed as limiting the claim concerned.
In addition, the present specification should be considered as a whole, the above-mentioned embodiments are not the only independent technical solutions of the present invention, and the technical solutions in the embodiments can be properly combined and adjusted to form other embodiments which can be understood by those skilled in the art.
Claims (6)
1. A method for determining the risk level of a step reservoir group dam, wherein the step reservoir group comprises at least two dams, is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) calculating the failure probability of the step reservoir group dam by adopting a reliability method, dividing indexes according to the risk probability grade, and determining the risk probability grade of the step reservoir group dam;
2) estimating possible life loss, economic loss, social influence and environmental influence after the cascade reservoir group dam is burst, dividing indexes according to the risk loss grade, and determining the cascade reservoir group dam risk loss grade;
3) and comprehensively considering the risk probability and the risk loss of the step reservoir group dam, dividing indexes according to the risk level, and determining the risk level of the step reservoir group dam by adopting a risk matrix.
2. The method for determining the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam as claimed in claim 1, wherein the specific method for calculating the failure probability of the cascade reservoir group dam by using the reliability method in the step 1) comprises the following steps:
3. The method for determining the risk rating of the cascade reservoir group dam as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk probability rating index in step 1) is divided into five levels of "almost impossible", "unlikely", "likely", "very likely" according to the probability from small to large, the probability rating is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and the corresponding probability value is "≦ 10 ≦ in sequence-5”、“10-5～10-4”、“10-4～10-3”、“10-3～10-2”、“≥10-2”。
4. The method for determining the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk loss grade division indexes in step 2) are classified into five grades of "general", "large", "significant", "particularly significant" and "catastrophic" according to life loss, economic loss, social influence and environmental influence, which correspond to A, B, C, D, E in sequence.
5. The method for determining the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam as claimed in claim 4, wherein the risk loss grading index is specifically:
1) general formula (A): less than 3 people die due to life loss or less than 10 people seriously injured; direct economic loss is less than 1000 ten thousand yuan; the social influence is slight, and 100 persons need to be placed in an emergency transfer mode; no influence or small influence range on local environment, but no attention is needed; one of the above requirements is satisfied.
2) Larger (B): 3-10 dead people with life loss or 10-50 seriously injured people; direct economic loss is 1000-5000 ten thousand yuan; the social influence is serious, and 100-1000 people need to be transferred and arranged in an emergency; the method has certain influence on the local environment, the related range is small, and the natural environment can be self-repaired in a short time; one of the above requirements is satisfied.
3) Significant (C): death of 10-30 people with life loss or 50-100 people with serious injury; direct economic loss is 5000-10000 ten thousand yuan; the social influence is serious, and 1000-10000 people need to be transferred and arranged in an emergency; the method has great influence on local environment, has large related range, but has no influence on biological population, and the expected recovery time needs at least 10 years; one of the above requirements is satisfied.
4) Of particular importance (D): death of 30-100 people with life loss or 100-500 people with serious injury; direct economic loss is 1-5 billion yuan; the social influence is serious, 10000-100000 people need to be transferred and arranged in an emergency; has a serious impact on the local environment, has a large coverage, can cause the extinction of local species, and is expected to require at least 20 years for recovery; one of the above requirements is satisfied.
5) Catastrophic (E): the number of life loss and death is more than 100 or more than 500 seriously injured people; direct economic loss is more than 5 billion yuan; the social influence is severe, more than 100000 people need to be transferred and placed in an emergency; the method has destructive influence on local environment, the related range is wide, species are directly killed, and the expected recovery time is over 30 years; one of the above requirements is satisfied.
6. The method for determining the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk level of the cascade reservoir group dam is classified into four grades of extreme high (I), high (II), medium (III) and low (IV) by considering the risk probability and the severity of the corresponding risk loss.
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