CN112396263A - Feasibility evaluation method and device for voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery - Google Patents
Feasibility evaluation method and device for voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery Download PDFInfo
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- VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N methane Chemical compound C VNWKTOKETHGBQD-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 381
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 226
- 230000002747 voluntary effect Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 176
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 46
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 title abstract description 15
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 81
- 238000006467 substitution reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 53
- 230000008901 benefit Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 45
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 38
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 16
- 238000006073 displacement reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 claims description 123
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 79
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 41
- 239000000446 fuel Substances 0.000 claims description 32
- 239000003345 natural gas Substances 0.000 claims description 30
- YYAVXASAKUOZJJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 4-(4-butylcyclohexyl)benzonitrile Chemical compound C1CC(CCCC)CCC1C1=CC=C(C#N)C=C1 YYAVXASAKUOZJJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 25
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 claims description 19
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 19
- 238000002485 combustion reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 18
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 17
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 15
- 239000002803 fossil fuel Substances 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 11
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000012795 verification Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000013022 venting Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000007303 Carboni reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000003647 oxidation Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000007254 oxidation reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000002994 raw material Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004064 recycling Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000010792 warming Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 239000005431 greenhouse gas Substances 0.000 description 8
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- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 description 2
- NNPPMTNAJDCUHE-UHFFFAOYSA-N isobutane Chemical compound CC(C)C NNPPMTNAJDCUHE-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 description 1
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- 239000001282 iso-butane Substances 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention discloses a feasibility evaluation method and a device for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery, wherein the method comprises the following steps: presetting a substitution scheme library and a profit model library; determining a preselected alternative from a library of alternatives for the target voluntary emission reduction project; constructing a preselected datum line scene of a target voluntary emission reduction project; calculating the methane emission amount of the target voluntary emission reduction project scene and each preselected reference line scene; acquiring the reduced displacement of the items when each pre-selected datum line scene is obtained; determining a full-investment internal rate of return calculation model and a capital fund internal rate of return calculation model required by the additional evaluation model, and calculating a project reference rate of return when each pre-selected reference line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project is calculated; calculating economic benefit values of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected datum line scene; determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established. The method can improve the certainty of judging the voluntary emission reduction project identification result and reduce the probability of project investment failure and project loss.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of petrochemical equipment, in particular to a feasibility evaluation method and a device for a methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project.
Background
At the heart of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the allowance for the transfer and acquisition of project-level emission reduction offsets in developed and developing countries, since the cost of greenhouse gas reduction in developed countries is several or even tens of times higher than in developing countries. Developed countries implement projects with greenhouse gas emission reduction effects in developing countries, and take the amount of greenhouse gas emission reduction produced by the projects as part of the obligations to fulfill the kyoto protocol. On the one hand, the developed countries are given some flexibility in performing, so that the developed countries can fulfill obligations at lower cost; on the other hand, for developing countries, developed countries are assisted to obtain funds and technologies from the developed countries by using the advantage of low emission reduction cost, and the sustainable development of the developed countries is promoted; for the world, the total emission reduction cost can be reduced on the premise of realizing the common emission reduction target in the world.
According to the CDM, the inspection of the greenhouse gas emission reduction project consists of a baseline methodology and a monitoring methodology, and a standard quantification, monitoring and reporting mode is provided for the greenhouse gas project and the emission reduction effect generated by the greenhouse gas project. With reference to CDM rules and methods, China established domestic rules and markets for voluntary emission reduction transactions. The voluntary emission reduction mechanism of China stipulates the approval and verification of voluntary emission reduction projects. The method comprises the steps of determining a baseline scene of an emission reduction project, determining the extra characteristics of emission reduction project activities, and monitoring, quantifying and reporting the project activities, and provides a basis for examining and checking greenhouse gas projects
When the emission reduction effect of an actual emission reduction project is evaluated, the target of emission comparison with the emission reduction project is a hypothetical situation, namely, a baseline scene which appears when the emission reduction project does not exist is assumed. In order for the emission reduction results to be reliable and not overestimated, it is necessary to verify that the regulations on the baseline scenario are in compliance, in particular with the conservation and accuracy principles; in addition, the operation of the emission reduction project requires additional capital support, and the additional nature of the emission reduction project is also important for the determination of voluntary emission reduction projects.
The inventor finds that, through research, the principle and requirement of emission reduction project check in the prior art only comprise a general framework of various greenhouse gas emission reduction projects and lack of standardized accounting and judgment, so that the accurate basis of the voluntary emission reduction performance implemented by the owner of the emission reduction project is not enough, thereby easily causing the investment failure of the project and the condition of project loss after construction, further reducing the investment enthusiasm of investors for related projects of methane recovery and being not beneficial to the development of methane recovery projects.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a feasibility evaluation method and device for a methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project. The method can improve the certainty of judging the voluntary emission reduction project identification result and reduce the probability of project investment failure and project loss.
The invention provides a feasibility evaluation method for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery, which comprises the following steps:
s11, presetting a substitution scheme library comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes, and a profit model library comprising a plurality of full-investment internal profit rate calculation models and a plurality of capital fund internal profit rate calculation models;
s12, aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project, determining the alternatives which belong to the local general situation and are allowed by laws and regulations from the alternatives library as pre-selected alternatives;
s13, constructing a preselected baseline scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
s14, calculating the methane emission amount of each preselected reference line scene according to a first emission amount calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene;
s15, respectively determining a full-investment internal rate of return calculation model and a capital-fund internal rate of return calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profit model base according to each preselected datum line scene, and calculating a project benchmark rate of return of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the additional evaluation model;
s16, calculating economic benefit values of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each pre-selected reference line scene according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
s17, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by judging whether the internal profitability, the reference profitability and the economic benefit value meet preset rules or not.
Preferably, in the present invention, the vented methane alternative comprises: emptying methane at a production site, emptying methane at the production site, burning the emptied methane at a torch at the production site, emptying residual gas when part of the emptied methane used in the site meets the site energy requirement, burning residual gas when part of the emptied methane used in the site meets the site energy requirement by the torch, and producing other products by taking the emptied methane as a raw material;
the natural gas infrastructure alternatives include: laying gas pipelines to provide unpretreated vent methane, building a low capacity processing plant without treating vent methane, building a new processing plant for treating vent methane, and providing vent methane to existing gas processing plants and building necessary processing equipment.
Preferably, in the present invention, the determining, from the alternative library, the alternatives allowed by the laws and regulations includes:
s21, presetting a legal provision database comprising laws and regulations related to the environment;
s22, determining the keywords of the alternative scheme, and acquiring the associated French slips of the alternative scheme from the French slip database according to the keywords;
s23, performing semantic recognition on the alternatives, and judging whether each alternative violates any one of the associated laws.
Preferably, in the invention, the first emission calculation model comprises a methane torch ignition emission calculation model and a methane emptying emission calculation model;
the model for calculating the methane torch set-off discharge amount comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipmentEFequipment×tequipment/1000+Wcarbon，y×Vy×44/12×1/1000；
wherein BEyBaseline emission for flare combustion, as tCO2Counting;
Wcarbon，yaverage carbon content in the vent gas is recovered for years in tC/m3Counting;
Vygas volume in Nm of vent gas recovered for year3Counting;
virecovering volume fractions of i gas components in the vent gas in percent for years;
Rirecovering the carbon content of the i gas components in the vent gas for years, and using the carbon content as tC/m3Counting;
GWPCH4for the potential of methane to increase temperature, 25tCO is used2/tCH4Counting;
wCH4,yto recover the mass fraction of methane in the vent gas, tCH is used4A/t gas meter;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transportation equipment is measured in h;
the methane emptying discharge calculation model comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipmentEFequipment×tequipment/1000+Vt×vi，t×ρi，t×GWPCH4；
PCH4，t＝(Pt×MMCH4)/(Ru×Tt)；
BEybaseline emissions produced during the venting of methane for annual recovery were given as tCO2eCounting;
Vtvolume of air discharged for standard conditions of recovery, in m3A gas/h meter;
vi，tfor recovery of the volume fraction of methane in the vent gas, in m3CH4/m3A gas meter;
ρi，tfor the density of methane in the vent gas, t CH4/m3CH4Counting;
Ptin Pa for the absolute pressure of the recovered gas;
Ttin K, the absolute temperature of the recovered gas;
MMCH4is the molecular weight of methane at 16X 10-6A t/mol meter;
Rugas constant, 8.314Pa · m3Calculated by mol.K;
GWPCH4for the potential of methane to increase temperature, 25tCO is used2/tCH4Counting;
wCH4，yto recover the mass fraction of methane in the vent gas, tCH is used4/t A gas meter;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transport equipment is measured in h.
Preferably, in the present invention, the second emission amount calculation model includes:
mcarbon，Aj，y＝VAj，y×Wcarbon，Aj，y
mcarbon，Bj，y＝∑iVi，Bj，y×wcarbon，i，Bj，y
mcarbon，Xj，y＝∑kVXj，k，y×wcarbon，Xj，ky；
wherein, PEyThe discharge amount is the project scene;
PEfuel，yemissions from fossil fuel combustion for project scenarios;
PEele，ythe amount of emissions due to power consumption for the project scenario;
ECPJ，j，ythe amount of electricity consumed for the annual project activity is measured in MWh;
FCj，ynumber of fuels j burned for annual project in m3And a meter t;
NCVj，yspecific calorific value of fossil fuel for combustion of project, in TJ/m3TJ/t meter;
EFc，j，ythe carbon content of a unit heat value of the fossil fuel for the project combustion is calculated as C/TJ;
EFOM，yfor annual grid electric quantity marginal emission factor, numerical range: 0.8 to 1.2tCO2/MWh；
EFBM，yFor annual grid capacity marginal emission factor, the numerical range: 0.3 to 0.6tCO2/MWh；
TDLj，yLine loss rate for annual project activity grid power supply, numerical range: 0 to 20 percent;
δc，j，ycarbon oxidation rate during combustion of fossil fuels for the project, value range: 90-100%;
mcarbon，Aj，ythe total amount of carbon in the recovered gas is measured as t for the annual measurement point Aj;
mcarbon，Xj，ythe total amount of carbon in the gas from other non-project recycling gas is measured by t for an annual measurement point Xj;
mcarbon，Bj，ythe total amount of carbon in the oil and gas product at a measurement point Bj in the year is counted by t;
VAj，yfor the total volume of the recovered gas at annual measurement point Aj, in m3Counting;
Wcarbon，Aj，yaverage carbon content in the recovered gas for annual measurement point Aj, kgC/m3Counting;
Vi，Bj，yproduct volume in m produced for annual survey point Bj3Counting;
wcarbon，i，Bj，ythe average content of carbon in the recovered gas is kgC/m for annual measurement point Bj3Counting;
VXj，k，ytotal volume of transport gas from other non-recovered gas items for annual measurement point Xj in m3Counting;
wcarbon，Xj，k，yaverage carbon content in transport gas from other non-recovered gas projects for annual measurement point Xj at kgC/m3And (6) counting.
Preferably, in the present invention, the full-investment internal rate of return calculation model includes:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+C0×Rrv
Ct＝C0×(1+Rfm)+WC+CFuel+Cw+Cele+Cst+Ccm+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×RCH4，st-C0×Ravt，eau-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm；
the fund internal yield calculation model comprises:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+(C0+Cloan)×Rrv
Ct＝C0+WC+CFuel+Cw+Cele+Cst+Ccm+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+(C0+Cloan)×Rfm+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange+Ai+Rtotal×Tincome
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×Ravt，CH4-(C0+Cloan)×Ravt，equ-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm
Ai＝Cloan(1+Rint×tinstruc)×(Rint×(1+Rint)^n)/((1+Rint)^n-1)
Rtotal＝MCH4×PCH4-VAT×Rextrachange-CFuel-Cw-Cst-Cele-Ccm-Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)-(C0+Cloan)×Rfm-MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)；
IRR is internal yield in%;
Rtthe income of the t year of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
Ctcost in ten thousand yuan for the t year of the project;
C0investment fund for project, in ten thousand yuan;
MCH4recovering the methane quantity, measured as t;
PCH4methane price in ten thousand yuan/m3Or ten thousand yuan/t meter;
Ryannual yield volatility, numerical range: 0 to 50 percent;
WC liquidity in ten thousand dollars;
Cloanthe loan amount of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
CFuelfuel power cost in ten thousand dollars;
Ccmmaterial costs, in ten thousand dollars;
VAT value added tax, in ten thousand dollars;
Chumanhuman wage costs in units of ten thousand yuan;
Cwwater cost in ten thousand yuan;
Celeelectricity consumption cost in ten thousand yuan;
Cngfuel costs, in ten thousand dollars;
Cststeam cost, in ten thousand dollars;
Rfhemployee welfare rates with a value range of 10-14%;
Rfmmaintenance rates for equipment facilitiesThe numerical range is 3-6.7%;
Roperationbusiness rate, the numerical range is 1-5%;
Rmanagemanaging the rate, wherein the numerical range is 10-75%;
Rrvthe fixed asset residual value rate is 3-5% in the numerical range;
Rresourceresource tax rate, numerical range: 0 to 3 percent;
Rextrachangeadditional rate, numerical range: 7% -13%;
Ravt，wwater value-added tax rate, numerical range: 6-13%;
Ravt，fuelfuel value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravt，ststeam value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravt，eleelectricity value added tax rate, numerical range: 9-17%;
Ravt，cmmaterial value-added tax rate, numerical range: 13-17%;
Ravt，equequipment value added tax rate, numerical range: 15-17%;
Tincomethe obtained tax rate, the numerical range: 10-25%;
TDage, range of values: 5-20;
Rtotalannual profit in ten thousand yuan;
Aipaying amount in ten thousand yuan per year;
tinstrucproject construction period time in years;
n the number of years of loan repayment required by the lender, in years;
Rintannual loan rate.
Preferably, in the present invention, the economic benefit judgment model includes:
PER＝10×ER×Rinstruc×Pcarbon-Pconsul-Pvalid-Pverif×Nverif
the economic benefit parameters comprise:
PERthe income of the voluntary emission reduction project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
ER is the annual emission reduction amount of a voluntary emission reduction project, and is counted by t;
Rinstrucfor the production efficiency of the construction project, the numerical range: 60-100%;
Pcarbonis the carbon number: 0.002-0.01 ten thousand yuan/tCO2；
PvalidFor voluntary emission reduction approval of service cost, numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pveriffor voluntary reduction of the volume verification service cost, the numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pconsulfor the voluntary emission reduction project consultation service cost, the numerical range is as follows: 0-10 ten thousand yuan.
NverifThe number of checking the volume is reduced, and the numerical range is 2-10 times.
Preferably, in the present invention, the determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction item is established by determining whether the economic benefit value meets a preset rule includes:
PERif the number is more than 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is established, PERAnd if the number is less than or equal to 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is not established.
In another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided a feasibility assessment apparatus for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery, comprising:
the system comprises a database construction unit and a profit model base, wherein the database construction unit is used for presetting a substitution scheme base comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes and a profit model base comprising a plurality of full-investment internal yield calculation models and a plurality of fund internal yield calculation models;
a pre-selection unit, which is used for determining the alternatives which belong to the local general situation and are allowed by laws and regulations from the alternatives library as pre-selected alternatives aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project;
the scene construction unit is used for constructing a preselected baseline scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
the displacement reduction calculation unit is used for calculating the methane discharge amount of each preselected reference line scene according to a first displacement calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene;
the benchmark profitability calculation unit is used for determining a full-investment internal profitability calculation model and a capital fund internal profitability calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profitability model base according to each preselected datum line scene, and calculating the project internal profitability and the benchmark profitability of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the additional evaluation model;
the benefit value calculating unit is used for calculating the economic benefit value of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
and the judging unit is used for determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by judging whether the project internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value meet preset rules or not.
Advantageous effects
In the invention, a substitution scheme library and a profit model library are preset; the alternative solution library comprises various emptying methane alternative solutions and natural gas infrastructure alternative solutions which are possibly used for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery; the income model library comprises various internal income rate calculation models of full investment and internal income rate calculation models of capital funds which are possibly used for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery; when a certain voluntary emission reduction project is evaluated, firstly, screening is carried out according to the actual needs of the target voluntary emission reduction project, and alternatives which belong to local general situations and are allowed by laws and regulations are selected from an alternative library to be pre-selected alternatives; then constructing a plurality of preselected baseline scenes of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution schemes; then, calculating the project emission reduction amount and the project reference profitability of each preselected datum line scene to further obtain the economic benefit value of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project; and finally, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by respectively judging whether the economic benefit values of the preselected datum line scenes meet preset rules or not.
According to the invention, all possible reference line scenes can be obtained by obtaining a plurality of preselected reference line scenes; then, calculating the internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to each preselected datum line scene; therefore, when the internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project under each preselected reference line scene accord with the preset rules, the reference line scene of the voluntary emission reduction project can be ensured to accord with relevant regulations for voluntary emission reduction project identification, and especially accord with the conservation and accuracy principles. Then, the method is constructed by the additional evaluation model in the profit model base, and can definitely judge the standard of the comprehensiveness and standardization of the additional evaluation, so that the randomness of the additional judgment of the voluntary emission reduction project is effectively reduced.
Therefore, the method and the device can improve the certainty of judging the result of the voluntary emission reduction project identification, so that the probability of project investment failure and project loss can be reduced.
The foregoing description is only an overview of the technical solutions of the present invention, and in order to make the technical means of the present invention more clearly understood and to make the technical means implementable in accordance with the contents of the description, and to make the above and other objects, technical features, and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, one or more preferred embodiments are described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the steps of a feasibility assessment method for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a feasibility assessment device of a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic process flow diagram of a voluntary emission reduction and reduction project for methane recovery according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of the present invention is provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood that the scope of the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments.
Throughout the specification and claims, unless explicitly stated otherwise, the word "comprise", or variations such as "comprises" or "comprising", will be understood to imply the inclusion of a stated element or component but not the exclusion of any other element or component.
In this document, the terms "first", "second", etc. are used to distinguish two different elements or portions, and are not used to define a particular position or relative relationship. In other words, the terms "first," "second," and the like may also be interchanged with one another in some embodiments.
In order to improve the certainty of judgment on the approval result of the voluntary emission reduction project and reduce the probability of project investment failure and project loss, as shown in fig. 1, the invention provides a feasibility assessment method for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery, which comprises the following steps:
s11, presetting a substitution scheme library comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes, and a profit model library comprising a plurality of full-investment internal profit rate calculation models and a plurality of capital fund internal profit rate calculation models;
for investors, if the implemented emission reduction project can be determined to meet the standards of the voluntary emission reduction project, the investors can be brought with profits; if the implemented emission reduction project is determined not to meet the standards of the voluntary emission reduction project, the loss of investors is caused; therefore, by carrying out feasibility evaluation on the voluntary emission reduction project, a basis can be provided for investment decision of investors (whether to invest and implement a certain emission reduction project).
The voluntary emission reduction mechanism of China makes relevant regulations for approval and verification of voluntary emission reduction projects; while the rules include the reference line scenario for determining the project, the extra nature of the project activity, and the principles and requirements for monitoring, quantifying, and reporting the project activity; however, in the prior art, comprehensive and standardized standard judgment is still lacked for specific situations of emission reduction projects so as to reduce the randomness of setting baseline scenes and additional judgment of the emission reduction projects. That is to say, in the prior art, a great uncertainty exists when an investor performs feasibility evaluation on a voluntary emission reduction project, so that the basis of the owner of the voluntary emission reduction project for implementing voluntary emission reduction is insufficient, and the conditions of investment failure of the project and loss of the project after construction are easily caused.
In the embodiment of the invention, in order to reduce the setting of the baseline situation of the emission reduction project and the randomness of extra judgment, a substitution scheme library comprising all emptying methane substitution schemes and all natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes and a profit model library comprising all full-investment internal profit rate calculation models and all capital cost internal profit rate calculation models are preset.
In practical applications, the alternative to venting methane may specifically include:
1, emptying methane at a production site;
2, discharging the methane and setting off a torch on the production site;
3, partially emptying methane to meet the requirement of site energy sources and emptying residual gas;
4, partially emptying methane by using the site to meet the site energy requirement, and burning residual gas torch;
and 5, producing other products by taking the recycled, transported and utilized vented methane as a raw material.
Natural gas infrastructure alternatives may specifically include:
1, laying a gas pipeline to provide vent methane without pretreatment;
2, building a low-capacity processing plant and not processing the vented methane;
3, newly building a processing plant for processing the emptied methane;
4, providing the vented methane to the existing gas processing plant and constructing necessary processing equipment.
The full-investment internal rate of return calculation model may specifically include:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+C0×Rrv
Ct＝C0×(1+Rfm)+WC+CFuel+Cw+Cele+Cst+Ccm+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×RCH4，st-C0×Ravt，equ-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm。
the fund internal yield calculation model specifically may include:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+(C0+Cloan)×Rrv
Ct＝C0+WC+CFuel+Cw+Cele+Cst+Ccm+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+(C0+Cloan)×Rfm+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange+Ai+Rtotal×Tincome
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×Ravt，CH4-(C0+Cloan)×Ravt，equ-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm
Ai＝Cloan(1+Rint×tinstruc)×(Rint×(1+Rint)^n)/((1+Rint)^n-1)
Rtotal＝MCH4×PCH4-VAT×Rextrachange-CFuel-Cw-Cst-Cele-Ccm-Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)-(C0+Cloan)×Rfm-MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)。
IRR is internal yield in%;
Rtthe income of the t year of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
Ctcost in ten thousand yuan for the t year of the project;
C0investment fund for project, in ten thousand yuan;
MCH4recovering the methane quantity, measured as t;
PCH4methane price in ten thousand yuan/m3Or ten thousand yuan/t meter;
Ryannual yield volatility, numerical range: 0 to 50 percent;
WC liquidity in ten thousand dollars;
Cloanthe loan amount of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
CFuelfuel power cost in ten thousand dollars;
Ccmmaterial costs, in ten thousand dollars;
VAT value added tax, in ten thousand dollars;
Chumanhuman wage costs in units of ten thousand yuan;
Cwwater cost in ten thousand yuan;
Celeelectricity consumption cost in ten thousand yuan;
Cststeam cost, in ten thousand dollars;
Rfhemployee welfare rates with a value range of 10-14%;
Rfmthe maintenance rate of equipment facilities is 3-6.7% in the numerical range;
Roperationbusiness rate, the numerical range is 1-5%;
Rmanagemanaging the rate, wherein the numerical range is 10-75%;
Rrvthe fixed asset residual value rate is 3-5% in the numerical range;
Rresourceresource tax rate, numerical range: 0 to 3 percent;
Rextrachangeadditional rate, numerical range: 7% -13%;
Ravt，wwater value-added tax rate, numerical range: 6-13%;
Ravt，fuelfuel value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravt，ststeam value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravt，eleelectricity value added tax rate, numerical range: 9-17%;
Ravt，cmmaterial value-added tax rate, numerical range: 13-17%;
Ravt，equequipment value added tax rate, numerical range: 15-17%;
Tincomethe obtained tax rate, the numerical range: 10-25%;
TDage, range of values: 5-20;
Rtotalannual profit in ten thousand yuan;
Aipaying amount in ten thousand yuan per year;
tinstrucproject construction period time in years;
n the number of years of loan repayment required by the lender, in years;
Rintannual loan rate;
s12, aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project, determining the alternatives which belong to the local general situation and are allowed by laws and regulations from the alternatives library as pre-selected alternatives;
after the alternative scheme library and the profit model library are preset, when whether a certain emission reduction project (namely a target voluntary emission reduction project) accords with the voluntary emission reduction project needs to be evaluated, the alternative scheme can be determined from the alternative scheme library and the profit model library aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project; for example, when determining alternatives of a target voluntary emission reduction project, the determination of local general situations and the compliance determination of laws and regulations are performed at the same time, specifically, on one hand, the determination of which alternatives belong to the local general situations is performed, and on the other hand, the determination of which alternatives are allowed by laws and regulations is performed, so that the pre-selected alternatives of the target voluntary emission reduction project can be determined; it should be noted that a plurality of alternatives may be included in the preselected alternative; for example, more than one vent methane alternative and more than one natural gas infrastructure alternative may be included in the preselected alternatives.
In practical application, the alternatives allowed by laws and regulations are determined from the alternatives library, and the specific method can comprise the following steps:
s21, presetting a legal provision database comprising laws and regulations related to the environment;
in practical applications, the laws and regulations related to the environment in the law and regulation database need to be updated according to the changes of the current laws and regulations, such as adding newly effective laws and regulations, deleting invalid laws and regulations, updating effective areas of laws and regulations, and the like.
It should be noted that the laws and regulations related to the environment in the embodiment of the present invention include not only laws and regulations established by the country, but also regulations and regulations established by the local regions in a certain jurisdiction.
S22, determining keywords of the alternative scheme, and acquiring the associated law bar of the alternative scheme from the law bar database according to the keywords;
in order to improve the efficiency and effect of judging the compliance of the alternative scheme and reduce the omission of manual judgment, in the embodiment of the invention, corresponding keywords (a plurality of keywords can be provided) are also set in the file of the alternative scheme, so that the associated law of the alternative scheme can be obtained from the law database according to the keywords, and further all laws and regulations which possibly influence the alternative scheme are obtained.
And S23, performing semantic recognition on the alternative schemes, and judging whether each alternative scheme violates any one of the associated laws.
In the embodiment of the invention, semantic recognition can be carried out on the alternative scheme, so that compliance judgment can be carried out on each legal provision and regulation in the associated legal provision and the alternative scheme.
S13, constructing the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
in order to ensure that the baseline scenario meets the requirement that the voluntary emission reduction project review is on the principle of conservation and accuracy, in the embodiment of the present invention, all possible preselected baseline scenarios are constructed according to the vent methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme, that is, through the combination of a plurality of different vent methane substitution schemes and natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes, the preselected baseline scenario in the embodiment of the present invention is not necessarily one, and may be a plurality.
S14, calculating the methane emission amount of each preselected reference line scene according to a first emission amount calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene;
in the embodiment of the invention, the calculation of the displacement reduction of the project can be respectively carried out according to each pre-selected datum line scene; specifically, the method comprises the steps that a first emission calculation model calculates methane emission in each pre-selected reference line scene; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to the second emission amount calculation model; thus, according to the difference value between the methane emission amount in each pre-selection reference line scene and the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene, the project emission reduction amount of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each pre-selection reference line scene can be obtained.
In practical application, the first emission calculation model may include a methane torch ignition emission calculation model and a methane venting emission calculation model;
the model for calculating the methane torch set-off discharge amount comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipmentEFequipment×tequipment/1000+Wcarbon，y×Vy×44/12×1/1000；
wherein, the BEyBaseline emissions from flare combustion for annual methane recovery as tCO2Counting;
Wcarbon，yaverage carbon content in the vent gas is recovered for years in tC/m3Counting;
Vygas volume in Nm of vent gas recovered for year3Counting;
virecovering volume fractions of i gas components in the vent gas in percent for years;
Rirecovering the carbon content of the i gas components in the vent gas for years, and using the carbon content as tC/m3Counting;
GWPCH4for the potential of methane to increase temperature, 25tCO is used2/tCH4Counting;
WCH4，yto recover the mass fraction of methane in the vent gas, tCH is used4A/t gas meter;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transport equipment is measured in h.
The methane emptying discharge calculation model comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipmentEFequipment×tequipment/1000+Vt×vi，t×ρi，t×GWPCH4；
ρCH4，t＝(Pt×MMCH4)/(Ru×Tx)；
BEybaseline emissions produced during the venting of methane for annual recovery were given as tCO2eCounting;
Vtvolume of air discharged for standard conditions of recovery, in m3A gas/h meter;
vi，tfor recovery of the volume fraction of methane in the vent gas, in m3CH4/m3A gas meter;
ρi，tfor the density of methane in the vent gas, t CH4/m3CH4Counting;
Ptin Pa for the absolute pressure of the recovered gas;
Ttfor the purpose of recyclingAbsolute temperature of the gas, in K;
MMCH4is the molecular weight of methane at 16X 10-6A t/mol meter;
Rugas constant, 8.314Pa · m3Calculated by mol.K;
GWPCH4for the potential of methane to increase temperature, 25tCO is used2/tCH4Counting;
wCH4，yto recover the mass fraction of methane in the vent gas, tCH is used4A/t gas meter;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transport equipment is measured in h.
In Table 1, the facility leakage Emission Factor (EF) is listed with respect to the leakage rateequipment) Parameter set:
TABLE 1
Other device categories include: compressors, diaphragms, drains, dump arms, hatches, instruments, meters and gauges, safety valves, polish rods, pressure relief valves, vents, and the like.
Next, the second emission amount calculation model (i.e., the methane emission amount calculation model of the target voluntary emission reduction project) in the embodiment of the present invention may specifically include:
mcarbon，Aj，y＝VAj，y×Wcarbon，Aj，y
mcarbon，Bj，y＝∑iVi，Bj，y×wcarbon，i,Bj,y
mcarbon，Xj，y＝∑kVXj，k,y×wcarbon，Xj，k，y
wherein the PEyThe discharge amount is the project scene;
PEfuel，yemissions from fossil fuel combustion for project scenarios;
PEele,ythe amount of emissions due to power consumption for the project scenario;
ECPJ，j，ythe amount of electricity consumed for the annual project activity is measured in MWh;
FCi，ynumber of fuels j burned for annual project in m3And a meter t;
NCVj，yspecific calorific value of fossil fuel for combustion of project, in TJ/m3TJ/t meter;
EFc,j，ythe carbon content of a unit heat value of the fossil fuel for the project combustion is calculated as C/TJ;
EFOM，yfor annual grid electric quantity marginal emission factor, numerical range: 0.8 to 1.2tCO2/MWh；
EFBM，yFor annual grid capacity marginal emission factor, the numerical range: 0.3 to 0.6tCO2/MWh；
TDLj，yLine loss rate for annual project activity grid power supply, numerical range: 0 to 20 percent;
δc，j，ycarbon oxidation rate during combustion of fossil fuels for the project, value range: 90-100%.
mcarbon，Aj，yThe total amount of carbon in the recovered gas is measured as t for the annual measurement point Aj;
mcarbon，Xj，yfor year measuring point XjThe total amount of carbon in t from other non-project recycle gases;
mcarbon，Bj，ythe total amount of carbon in the oil and gas product at a measurement point Bj in the year is counted by t;
VAj，yfor the total volume of the recovered gas at annual measurement point Aj, in m3Counting;
Wcarbon，Aj，yaverage carbon content in the recovered gas for annual measurement point Aj, kgC/m3Counting;
Vi，Bj，yproduct volume in m produced for annual survey point Bj3Counting;
wcarbon，i，Bj，ythe average content of carbon in the recovered gas is kgC/m for annual measurement point Bj3Counting;
VXj，k，ytotal volume of transport gas from other non-recovered gas items for annual measurement point Xj in m3Counting;
wcarbon，Xj，k，yaverage carbon content in transport gas from other non-recovered gas projects for annual measurement point Xj at kgC/m3And (6) counting.
S15, respectively determining a full-investment internal rate of return calculation model and a capital-fund internal rate of return calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profit model base according to each preselected datum line scene, and calculating a project benchmark rate of return when each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project is calculated according to the additional evaluation model;
when calculating the project benchmark profitability of each preselected benchmark line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project, firstly, a full-investment internal profitability calculation model and a capital fund internal profitability calculation model required by the additional evaluation model are determined.
S16, calculating internal profitability, reference profitability and economic benefit values of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each pre-selected reference line scene according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
the economic benefit judgment model specifically comprises the following steps:
PER＝10×ER×Rinstruc×Pcarbon-Pconsul-Pvalid-Pverif×Nverif
and (3) economic benefit parameter set:
PERthe income of the voluntary emission reduction project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
ER is the annual emission reduction amount of a voluntary emission reduction project, and is counted by t;
Rinstrucfor the production efficiency of the construction project, the numerical range: 60-100%;
Pcarbonis the carbon number: 0.002-0.01 ten thousand yuan/tCO2；
PvalidFor voluntary emission reduction approval of service cost, numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pveriffor voluntary reduction of the volume verification service cost, the numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pconsulfor the voluntary emission reduction project consultation service cost, the numerical range is as follows: 0-10 ten thousand yuan.
NverifReducing the number of discharge capacity verification, wherein the numerical range is 2-10 times;
s17, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by judging whether the internal profitability, the reference profitability and the economic benefit value meet preset rules or not.
After the internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project under each preselected reference line scene are obtained, the target voluntary emission reduction project can be evaluated by taking each preselected reference line scene as the reference line scene, namely whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established under each preselected reference line scene is evaluated respectively.
In practical application, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction item is established by judging whether the economic benefit value meets a preset rule may include:
PERif the number is more than 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is established, PERAnd if the number is less than or equal to 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is not established.
In addition, the method also comprises a project with the annual income fluctuation rate of 30%, and if the internal income rate is less than or equal to the reference income rate, the target voluntary emission reduction project can be established. And (4) a project with the annual income fluctuation rate of 30%, and if the internal income rate is larger than the reference income rate, the target voluntary emission reduction project is not established.
In this way, when all the evaluation results of the voluntary emission reduction projects with each preselected reference line scene as the reference line scene are all the projects, the target voluntary emission reduction project can be determined to be established; therefore, the situation that each scene can possibly serve as a reference line scene is included and correspondingly evaluated through the embodiment of the invention, so that the evaluation in the embodiment of the invention can meet the requirements of conservation and accuracy principles when voluntary emission reduction projects are identified.
In summary, the embodiment of the present invention first presets a replacement scenario library and a revenue model library; the alternative solution library comprises various emptying methane alternative solutions and natural gas infrastructure alternative solutions which are possibly used for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery; the income model library comprises various internal income rate calculation models of full investment and internal income rate calculation models of capital funds which are possibly used for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery; when a certain voluntary emission reduction project is evaluated, firstly, screening is carried out according to the actual needs of the target voluntary emission reduction project, and alternatives which belong to local general situations and are allowed by laws and regulations are selected from an alternative library to be pre-selected alternatives; then constructing a plurality of preselected baseline scenes of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution schemes; then, calculating the project emission reduction amount and the project reference profitability of each preselected datum line scene to further obtain the economic benefit value of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project; and finally, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by respectively judging whether the economic benefit values of the preselected datum line scenes meet preset rules or not.
According to the invention, all possible reference line scenes can be obtained by obtaining a plurality of preselected reference line scenes; then, calculating the internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to each preselected datum line scene; therefore, when the internal yield, the reference yield and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project under each preselected reference line scene accord with the preset rules, the reference line scene of the voluntary emission reduction project can be ensured to accord with relevant regulations for voluntary emission reduction project identification, and especially accord with the conservation and accuracy principles. Then, the method is constructed by the additional evaluation model in the profit model base, and can definitely judge the standard of the comprehensiveness and standardization of the additional evaluation, so that the randomness of the additional judgment of the voluntary emission reduction project is effectively reduced.
Therefore, the method can improve the certainty of judging the result of the voluntary emission reduction project identification through reduction, and reduce the probability of project investment failure and project loss.
In another aspect of the embodiment of the present invention, there is also provided a feasibility assessment apparatus for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery, as shown in fig. 2, including:
the database construction unit 01 is used for presetting a substitution scheme library comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes, and a profit model library comprising a plurality of full-investment internal profit rate calculation models and a plurality of fund internal profit rate calculation models;
a preselection unit 02 for determining, from the alternatives library, as a preselected alternative, an alternative belonging to a local general situation and allowed by laws and regulations for a target voluntary emission reduction project;
the scene construction unit 03 is used for constructing a preselected baseline scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
a displacement reduction calculation unit 04, configured to calculate a methane emission amount for each preselected reference line scene according to a first displacement calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the voluntary emission reduction project scene;
the reference profitability calculation unit 05 is used for determining a full-investment internal profitability calculation model and a capital fund internal profitability calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profitability model base according to each preselected benchmark line situation, and calculating the project internal profitability and the reference profitability of the voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected benchmark line situation according to the additional evaluation model;
the benefit value calculating unit 06 is used for calculating economic benefit values of the voluntary emission reduction project at each preselected datum line scene according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
a determination unit 07, configured to determine whether the target voluntary emission reduction item is established by determining whether the internal profitability, the reference profitability, and the economic benefit value meet preset rules.
Since the working principle and the beneficial effects of the feasibility evaluation device of the methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project in the embodiment of the invention are also recorded and described in the feasibility evaluation method of the methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project in the embodiment 1, they can be referred to each other and are not described herein again.
It should be noted that the embodiment of the present invention may be implemented by a software program, that is, by writing a software program (and an instruction set) for implementing each step in the feasibility assessment method of the methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project corresponding to fig. 1, the software program is stored in a memory, and the memory is disposed in a computer device, so that the software program can be called by a processor of the computer device to implement the purpose of the embodiment of the present invention.
The following supplementary description is provided for each step of the voluntary emission reduction project simulation system for methane recovery provided by the invention by combining actual statistical experimental data and the voluntary emission reduction project simulation process.
In the embodiment of the invention, the effectiveness of the evaluation system for the voluntary emission reduction project of methane recovery provided by the invention is verified by taking a methane recovery project of a certain natural gas processing plant as an example.
And determining the situation of the voluntary emission reduction project and the situation of each preselected datum line according to the internal logic rules of the alternative solution library and the law rule database.
1, voluntary emission reduction project scene construction:
the process flow of the voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery is shown in figure 3.
The voluntary emission reduction project scenario is flare gas of a natural gas processing plant, and the flare gas is buffered by a gas holder, pressurized by a compressor and enters a natural gas pipe network.
2, constructing a preselected datum line scene:
the pre-selected baseline scene is obtained by logical screening in the baseline scene set as follows: unqualified gas generated in the natural gas processing plant is directly set off by a torch.
And (4) according to the target voluntary emission reduction project, reducing the project emission reduction amount in each preselected datum line scene.
And 3, calculating the emission reduction amount of the voluntary emission reduction project:
displacement reduction calculation model
ER＝BE-PE
Model for calculating discharge amount of reference line scene:
BEy＝Wcarbon,y×Vy×44/12
project scene emission calculation model:
PEy＝∑ECPJ，j，y×0.5×(EFOM，y+EFBM，y)×(1+TDLj，y)
and 4, determining a datum line parameter and a project parameter:
the natural gas processing plant processes the mixed gas mined by the oil and gas field into qualified dry gas, natural gas and other products. Various tail gases are generated during normal production, torch combustion is needed, and the tail gases comprise device start-stop switching air release, normal isobutane separation device start-stop air release, normal consumption of equipment gas seal gas, leakage of process valves, torch pilot burner gas consumption and overpressure air release released in an accident state. The system also comprises storage tank area vent gas, namely overpressure vent gas, maintenance tank vent gas and pump-starting vent gas.
The project is to recycle various tail gases, and then the tail gases respectively pass through a buffer gas cabinet, a compressor for pressurization and a gas-liquid separator to enter a natural gas treatment device again for treatment.
The parameters to be detected by the project are the recovery amount of the tail gas and the electric quantity consumed by the project operation, which are respectively measured by a flow meter and an electric quantity meter, and the carbon content of the recovered tail gas is measured by gas chromatography. During project design, the power of the compressor and the volume of the gas holder need to exceed the tail gas amount of flare combustion. The calculated tail gas amount (360 days) of the torch combustion in the historical year of the project is 4005454m3. The flow rate of the compressor should exceed 470m3H is used as the reference value. The carbon content of the tail gas is 0.915 multiplied by 10-3tC/m3. Theoretical power consumption of the compressor is set to 4m3The specific power is/h/kW. The power of the compressor is 115kW and the number of days of project operation is set to 360 days, the amount of electricity consumed is 99 × 104kWh。
Baseline situational emission parameter table
| Parameter(s) | Description of the invention | Numerical value | Unit of |
| Wcarbon，y | viAverage carbon content in flare gas recovered for the y year | 0.915×10-3 | tC/m3 |
| Vy | VyVolume of flare gas recovered for year y | 4005454 | Nm3 |
After accounting, the annual emission of the baseline scene is 13438.3tCO2。
Project scenario emission parameter table
After accounting, the annual emission of the project scene is 859tCO2. The annual emission reduction of the project is 12579tCO2。
And setting a reference line variable set and a project variable set according to the scene keywords to form an internal yield calculation model.
And 5, voluntary emission reduction project additional accounting:
the project investment is from the own fund of a project owner, other fund sources are not available, a reference line variable set and a project variable set are set according to the situation keywords, and a full-investment reference yield and a full-investment internal yield calculation model are formed.
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+C0×Rrv
Ct＝C0×(1+Rfm)+WC+Cele+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×RCH4,st-C0×Ravt，equ-Cele×Ravt,ele
And searching each item variable in the French press database according to the keywords, determining each item variable data, and determining actual data.
Item additional parameter table
The financial internal profitability of the accounting project is 11.76%.
The project investment comes from the own fund of a project owner, and is in the oil exploitation industry, and the standard yield is 13% of the full-investment pre-tax standard yield of the oil industry.
The financial internal profitability of the accounting project is 11.76 percent and is 13 percent lower than the standard profitability of the petrochemical industry.
6, voluntary emission reduction project economic benefit accounting:
PER＝10×ER×Rinstruc×Pcarbon-Pconsul-Pvalid-Pverif×Nverif
economic benefit parameter table of voluntary emission reduction project
The benefit rate of the accounting project is 223 ten thousand yuan which is higher than 50 ten thousand yuan, so that the voluntary emission reduction project is established.
In the embodiments provided in the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed system, apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is only one logical division, and other divisions may be realized in practice, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in a form of hardware, and can also be realized in a form of a software functional unit.
The integrated unit, if implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a memory and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to execute all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present invention. And the aforementioned memory comprises: a usb disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a ReRAM, an MRAM, a PCM, a NAND Flash, a NOR Flash, a Memory, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, or other various media that can store program codes.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A feasibility assessment method for a methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s11, presetting a substitution scheme library comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes, and a profit model library comprising a plurality of full-investment internal profit rate calculation models and a plurality of capital fund internal profit rate calculation models;
s12, aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project, determining the alternatives which belong to the local general situation and are allowed by laws and regulations from the alternatives library as pre-selected alternatives;
s13, constructing a preselected baseline scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
s14, calculating the methane emission amount of each preselected reference line scene according to a first emission amount calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene;
s15, respectively determining a full-investment internal rate of return calculation model and a capital-fund internal rate of return calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profit model base according to each preselected datum line scene, and calculating a project benchmark rate of return of each preselected datum line scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the additional evaluation model;
s16, calculating economic benefit values of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each pre-selected reference line scene according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
s17, determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by judging whether the internal profitability, the reference profitability and the economic benefit value meet preset rules or not.
2. The feasibility assessment method of a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to claim 1,
the vented methane alternative comprises: emptying methane at a production site, emptying methane at the production site, burning the emptied methane at a torch at the production site, emptying residual gas when part of the emptied methane used in the site meets the site energy requirement, burning residual gas when part of the emptied methane used in the site meets the site energy requirement by the torch, and producing other products by taking the emptied methane as a raw material;
the natural gas infrastructure alternatives include: laying gas pipelines to provide unpretreated vent methane, building a low capacity processing plant without treating vent methane, building a new processing plant for treating vent methane, and providing vent methane to existing gas processing plants and building necessary processing equipment.
3. The feasibility assessment method for voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to claim 1, wherein said determining alternatives from said alternatives library as allowed by laws and regulations comprises:
s21, presetting a legal provision database comprising laws and regulations related to the environment;
s22, determining the keywords of the alternative scheme, and acquiring the associated French slips of the alternative scheme from the French slip database according to the keywords;
s23, performing semantic recognition on the alternatives, and judging whether each alternative violates any one of the associated laws.
4. The feasibility assessment method for a methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project according to claim 3, wherein the first emission calculation model comprises a methane torch ignition emission calculation model and a methane vent emission calculation model;
the model for calculating the methane torch set-off discharge amount comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipmentEFequipment×tequipment/1000+Wcarbon，y×Vy×44/12×1/1000；
wherein BEyBaseline emission from flare combustion for annual methane recovery as t CO2Counting;
Wcarbon，yaverage carbon content in the vent gas is recovered for years in tC/m3Counting;
Vythe gas volume of the vent gas is recovered for the year at N m3Counting;
virecovering volume fractions of i gas components in the vent gas in percent for years;
Rirecovering the carbon content of the i gas components in the vent gas for years, and using the carbon content as tC/m3Counting;
GWPCH4for the warming potential of methane, 25t CO2Calculated by/tCH 4;
wCH4，yfor recyclingThe mass fraction of methane in the air, in tCH4/t gas;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transportation equipment is measured in h;
the methane emptying discharge calculation model comprises the following steps:
BEy＝GWPCH4×wCH4，y×∑equipment EFequipment×tequipment/1000+Vt×vi，t×ρi，t×GWPCH4；
ρCH4，t＝(Pt×MMCH4)/(Ru×Tt)；
BEybaseline emissions produced during the venting of methane for annual recovery were given as tCO2eCounting;
Vtvolume of air discharged for standard conditions of recovery, in m3A gas/h meter;
vi，tfor recovery of the volume fraction of methane in the vent gas, in m3 CH4/m3A gas meter;
ρi，tfor the density of methane in the vent gas, t CH4/m3 CH4Counting;
Ptin Pa for the absolute pressure of the recovered gas;
Ttin K, the absolute temperature of the recovered gas;
MMCH4is the molecular weight of methane at 16X 10-6A t/mol meter;
Rugas constant, 8.314Pa · m3Calculated by mol.K;
GWPCH4for the potential of methane to increase temperature, 25tCO is used2/tCH4Counting;
wCH4，yto recover the mass fraction of methane in the vent gas, tCH is used4A/t gas meter;
EFequipmentthe leakage rate of the mixed gas in the process of air-vent transportation is recycled for the year;
tequipmentthe running time of the transport equipment is measured in h.
5. The feasibility assessment method for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to claim 3, wherein said second emission calculation model comprises:
mcarbon，Aj，y＝VAj，y×Wcarbon，Aj，y
mcarbon，Bj，y＝∑iVi，Bj，y×wcarbon，i，Bj，y
mcarbon，Xj，y＝∑kVXj，k，y×wcarbon，Xj，ky；
wherein, PEyThe discharge amount is the project scene;
PEfuel，yemissions from fossil fuel combustion for project scenarios;
PEele，ythe amount of emissions due to power consumption for the project scenario;
ECPJ，j，ythe amount of electricity consumed for the annual project activity is measured in MWh;
FCj，ynumber of fuels j burned for annual project in m3And a meter t;
NCVj，yspecific calorific value of fossil fuel for combustion of project, in TJ/m3TJ/t meter;
EFc，j，ythe carbon content of a unit heat value of the fossil fuel for the project combustion is calculated as C/TJ;
EFOM，yfor annual grid electric quantity marginal emission factor, numerical range: 0.8 to 1.2tCO2/MWh；
EFBM，yFor annual grid capacity marginal emission factor, the numerical range: 0.3 to 0.6tCO2/MWh；
TDLj，yLine loss rate for annual project activity grid power supply, numerical range: 0 to 20 percent;
δc，j，ycarbon oxidation rate during combustion of fossil fuels for the project, value range: 90-100%;
mcarbon，Aj，ythe total amount of carbon in the recovered gas is measured as t for the annual measurement point Aj;
mcarbon，Xj，ythe total amount of carbon in the gas from other non-project recycling gas is measured by t for an annual measurement point Xj;
mcarbon，Bj，ythe total amount of carbon in the oil and gas product at a measurement point Bj in the year is counted by t;
VAjyfor the total volume of the recovered gas at annual measurement point Aj, in m3Counting;
Wcarbon，Aj，yaverage carbon content in the recovered gas for annual measurement point Aj, kgC/m3Counting;
Vi，Bj，yproduct volume in m produced for annual survey point Bj3Counting;
wcarbon，i，Bj，ythe average content of carbon in the recovered gas is kgC/m for annual measurement point Bj3Counting;
VXj，k，ytotal volume of transport gas from other non-recovered gas items for annual measurement point Xj in m3Counting;
wcarbon，Xj，k，yaverage carbon content in transport gas from other non-recovered gas projects for annual measurement point Xj at kgC/m3And (6) counting.
6. The feasibility assessment method for a voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to claim 4, wherein said calculation model for total investment internal rate of return comprises:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+C0×Rrv
Ct＝C0×(1+Rfm)+WC+CFuel+Cw+Cele+Ccm+Cst+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×RCH4，st-C0×Ravt，equ-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm；
the fund internal yield calculation model comprises:
Rt＝MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)+WC+(C0+Cloan)×Rrv
Ct＝C0+WC+CFuel+Ccm+Cw+Cst+Cele+Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)+(C0+Cloan)×Rfm+MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)+VAT×Rextrachange+Ai+Rtotal×Tincome
VAT＝MCH4×PCH4×Ravt，CH4-(C0+Cloan)×Ravt，equ-Cw×Ravt，w-Cfuel×Ravt，fuel-Cst×Ravt，st-Cele×Ravt，ele-Ccm×Ravt，cm
Ai＝Cloan(1+Rint×tinstruc)×(Rint×(1+Rint)^n)/((1+Rint)^n-1)
Rtotal＝MCH4×PCH4-VAT×Rextrachange-CFuel-Cw-Cst-Cele-Ccm-Chuman×(1+Rfh)×(1+Rmanage)-(C0+Cloan)×Rfm-MCH4×PCH4×(1+Ry)×(Roperation+Rresource)；
IRR is internal yield in%;
Rtthe income of the t year of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
Ctcost in ten thousand yuan for the t year of the project;
C0investment fund for project, in ten thousand yuan;
MCH4recovering the methane quantity, measured as t;
PCH4methane price in ten thousand yuan/m3Or ten thousand yuan/t meter;
Ryannual yield volatility, numerical range: 0 to 50 percent;
WC liquidity in ten thousand dollars;
Cloanthe loan amount of the project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
CFuelfuel power cost in ten thousand dollars;
Ccmmaterial costs, in ten thousand dollars;
VAT value added tax, in ten thousand dollars;
Chumanhuman wage costs in units of ten thousand yuan;
Cwwater cost in ten thousand yuan;
Celeelectricity consumption cost in ten thousand yuan;
Cngfuel costs, in ten thousand dollars;
Cststeam cost, in ten thousand dollars;
Rfhemployee welfare rates with a value range of 10-14%;
Rfmthe maintenance rate of equipment facilities is 3-6.7% in the numerical range;
Roperationbusiness rate, the numerical range is 1-5%;
Rmanagemanaging the rate, wherein the numerical range is 10-75%;
Rrvthe fixed asset residual value rate is 3-5% in the numerical range;
Rresourceresource tax rate, numerical range: 0 to 3 percent;
Rextrachangeadditional rate, numerical range: 7% -13%;
Ravt，wwater value-added tax rate, numerical range: 6-13%;
Ravt，fuelfuel value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravt，ststeam value-added tax rate, numerical range: 11-13%;
Ravteleelectricity value added tax rate, numerical range: 9-17%;
Ravt，cmmaterial value-added tax rate, numerical range: 13-17%;
Ravtequequipment value added tax rate, numerical range: 15-17%;
Tincomethe obtained tax rate, the numerical range: 10-25%;
TDage, range of values: 5-20;
Rtotalannual profit in ten thousand yuan;
Aipaying amount in ten thousand yuan per year;
tinstrucproject construction period time in years;
n the number of years of loan repayment required by the lender, in years;
Rintannual loan rate.
7. The feasibility assessment method for the methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project according to claim 1, wherein the economic benefit judgment model comprises:
PER＝10×ER×Rinstruc×Pcarbon-Pconsul-Pvalid-Pverif×Nverif
the economic benefit parameters comprise:
PERthe income of the voluntary emission reduction project is measured in ten thousand yuan;
ER is the annual emission reduction amount of a voluntary emission reduction project, and is counted by t;
Rinstrucfor the production efficiency of the construction project, the numerical range: 60-100%;
Pcarbonis the carbon number: 0.002-0.01 ten thousand yuan/tCO2；
PvalidFor voluntary emission reduction approval of service cost, numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pveriffor voluntary reduction of the volume verification service cost, the numerical range: 2-6 ten thousand yuan;
Pconsulfor the voluntary emission reduction project consultation service cost, the numerical range is as follows: 0-10 ten thousand yuan.
NverifThe number of checking the volume is reduced, and the numerical range is 2-10 times.
8. The feasibility assessment method for the voluntary emission reduction project for methane recovery according to claim 7, wherein the determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established by determining whether the economic benefit value meets a preset rule comprises:
PERif the number is more than 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is established, PERAnd if the number is less than or equal to 50 ten thousand yuan, the target voluntary emission reduction project is not established.
9. A feasibility assessment device for a methane recovery voluntary emission reduction project is characterized by comprising:
the system comprises a database construction unit and a profit model base, wherein the database construction unit is used for presetting a substitution scheme base comprising a plurality of emptying methane substitution schemes and a plurality of natural gas infrastructure substitution schemes and a profit model base comprising a plurality of full-investment internal yield calculation models and a plurality of fund internal yield calculation models;
a pre-selection unit, which is used for determining the alternatives which belong to the local general situation and are allowed by laws and regulations from the alternatives library as pre-selected alternatives aiming at the target voluntary emission reduction project;
the scene construction unit is used for constructing a preselected baseline scene of the target voluntary emission reduction project according to the emptying methane substitution scheme and the natural gas infrastructure substitution scheme in the preselected substitution scheme; the number of the preselected baseline scenes comprises more than one;
the displacement reduction calculation unit is used for calculating the methane discharge amount of each preselected reference line scene according to a first displacement calculation model; calculating the methane emission amount in the target voluntary emission reduction project scenario according to a second emission amount calculation model; acquiring the project emission reduction volume of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected reference line scene according to the difference value between the methane emission volume in each preselected reference line scene and the methane emission volume in the target voluntary emission reduction project scene;
the benchmark profitability calculation unit is used for determining a full-investment internal profitability calculation model and a capital fund internal profitability calculation model required by an additional evaluation model from the profitability model base according to each preselected benchmark situation, and calculating the project benchmark profitability of the target voluntary emission reduction project in each preselected benchmark situation according to the additional evaluation model;
the benefit value calculating unit is used for calculating the internal profitability, the reference profitability and the economic benefit value of the target voluntary emission reduction project under each preselected datum line scene according to a preset economic benefit judgment model;
and the judging unit is used for determining whether the target voluntary emission reduction project is established or not by judging whether the internal profitability, the reference profitability and the economic benefit value meet preset rules or not.
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