CN112381666A - New energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method, which relates to the technical field of new energy consumption, and the technical scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps: step 1, monitoring, abnormal alarming and early warning of a real-time running state of the new energy station by a monitoring module, continuing to step 2 if the running state is normal, and continuing to step 1 if the running state is normal; step 2, the prediction module predicts the power of the new energy station in short, medium and long periods through a prediction algorithm based on meteorological information, historical data and real-time data; step 3, the analysis module firstly obtains the corresponding new energy power generation absorption proportion, the corresponding annual month utilization hours and the corresponding weight of the new energy power abandon rate, and then obtains the corresponding index; and 4, setting a corresponding new energy consumption index and a division standard table of the consumption early warning index by the comparison module, and matching the obtained index with the division standard table to obtain a corresponding consumption early warning grade. The method has the effect of effectively early warning and analyzing the consumption of the new energy power generation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of new energy consumption, in particular to a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method.
Background
The new energy generally refers to renewable energy developed and utilized on the basis of new technology, and comprises solar energy, biomass energy, hydroenergy, wind energy, geothermal energy, wave energy, ocean current energy, tidal energy, heat circulation between the surface and the deep layer of the ocean and the like; in addition, there are hydrogen energy, methane gas, alcohol, methanol, and the like, and the widely used energy sources such as coal, oil, natural gas, water energy, and the like are called conventional energy sources. With the limited nature of conventional energy and the increasing prominence of environmental issues, new energy with the characteristics of environmental protection and regeneration is gaining more and more attention from various countries.
In China, new industrial energy mainly comprises water energy (mainly small hydropower stations), wind energy, biomass energy, solar energy, geothermal energy and the like, and is recyclable clean energy. The development of the new energy industry is not only an effective supplementary means of the whole energy supply system, but also an important measure for environmental management and ecological protection, and is a final energy selection meeting the sustainable development requirements of human society.
However, while the new energy power generation is rapidly developed, the problem of insufficient absorption and utilization gradually appears, and further the application of the new energy power generation is influenced, so that economic loss is caused, and improvement is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method which has the effect of effectively early warning and analyzing the new energy power generation consumption so as to make targeted planning and measures in time.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method comprises the following steps:
step 1, monitoring, abnormal alarming and early warning of a real-time running state of the new energy station by a monitoring module, continuing to step 2 if the running state is normal, and continuing to step 1 if the running state is normal;
step 2, the prediction module predicts the power of the new energy station in short, medium and long periods through a prediction algorithm based on meteorological information, historical data and real-time data;
step 3, an analysis module firstly obtains corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion, corresponding annual month utilization hours and corresponding new energy power abandon rate weight according to the short, medium and long period prediction power of the new energy station, and then calculates and obtains a corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, a corresponding annual month utilization hours index and a corresponding new energy power abandon rate index through a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model;
and 4, the comparison module sets a corresponding new energy consumption index and a division standard table of the consumption early warning index, and matches the index obtained in the step 3 with the division standard table to obtain a corresponding consumption early warning grade.
By adopting the technical scheme, under the condition that the implementation operation state of the new energy station is stable, power prediction is carried out based on corresponding data, so that the corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, the corresponding annual month utilization hour index and the corresponding new energy power abandonment rate index are obtained by combining the predicted power with corresponding weight, and then the effect of effectively early warning and analyzing the new energy power generation consumption to make targeted planning and measures in time is realized by matching the division standard table.
The invention is further configured to: in step 3, the new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model comprises the following formula:
wherein: renewpThe early warning index is consumed for the new energy power generation in each region; renewHiIs and CpCorresponding newA high critical value of the energy consumption early warning index; renewLoIs and CpA corresponding low critical value of the new energy consumption early warning index; BP (Back propagation) ofHiIs CpThe high critical value of the section; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; cpThe actual value of each evaluation index.
By adopting the technical scheme, the calculation of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is realized, the result is accurate, and the targeted planning and measures can be conveniently and timely made while the new energy power generation consumption is effectively early-warned and analyzed.
The invention is further configured to: in step 3, the weight of the new energy power generation absorption specific gravity, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate is calculated by the following formula:
wherein G ispThe power generation of the new energy is provided with the corresponding weight of the specific gravity, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate; g0Setting a weight value for each evaluation; cpEvaluating the actual value of each index; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; pnPredicting the power for the corresponding; pLoIs a low threshold for power.
By adopting the technical scheme, the calculated weight value is applied to calculation of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index, and the calculation accuracy of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is further improved.
The invention is further configured to: the G is00.35 of specific gravity is consumed for power generation relative to the new energy; 0.28 relative to the annual month utilization hours; relative to 0.28 of the new energy power rejection rate.
The invention is further configured to: in step 4, the new energy consumption early warning indexes are divided into red, orange and green early warning grades; the new energy consumption early warning index of the red early warning level is more than or equal to 0 and less than 28; the new energy consumption early warning index of the orange early warning level is more than or equal to 28 and less than 54; and the new energy consumption early warning index of the green early warning level is greater than or equal to 54 and less than or equal to 100.
By adopting the technical scheme, the aim of effective early warning is achieved, and the aim of timely making targeted planning and measures is further achieved.
In conclusion, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the weight value actually applied is calculated through the corresponding set weight value, and then the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is calculated through the new energy power generation consumption early warning index model, so that the calculation accuracy of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is improved;
2. the method comprises the steps of obtaining a corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, a corresponding annual month utilization hour number index and a corresponding new energy power abandonment rate index when the implementation operation state of the new energy station is in a stable state, and thus obtaining an accurate new energy power generation consumption early warning index.
3. The new energy power generation consumption is effectively early-warned and analyzed so as to make targeted planning and measures in time.
Detailed Description
A new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method comprises the following steps:
step 1, monitoring, abnormal alarming and early warning of a real-time running state of the new energy station by a monitoring module, continuing to step 2 if the running state is normal, and continuing to step 1 if the running state is normal;
step 2, the prediction module predicts the power of the new energy station in short, medium and long periods through a prediction algorithm based on meteorological information, historical data and real-time data;
step 3, an analysis module firstly obtains corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion, corresponding annual month utilization hours and corresponding new energy power abandon rate weight according to the short, medium and long period prediction power of the new energy station, and then calculates and obtains a corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, a corresponding annual month utilization hours index and a corresponding new energy power abandon rate index through a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model;
the new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model comprises the following formula:
wherein: renewpThe early warning index is consumed for the new energy power generation in each region; renewHiIs and CpA high-order critical value of the corresponding new energy consumption early warning index; renewLoIs and CpA corresponding low critical value of the new energy consumption early warning index; BP (Back propagation) ofHiIs CpThe high critical value of the section; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; cpEvaluating the actual value of each index;
and the weight of the new energy power generation absorption proportion, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate is calculated by the following formula:
wherein G ispThe power generation of the new energy is provided with the corresponding weight of the specific gravity, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate; g0Setting a weight value for each evaluation; cpEvaluating the actual value of each index; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; pnPredicting the power for the corresponding; pLoIs a low threshold value of power; and G00.35 of specific gravity is consumed for power generation relative to the new energy; 0.28 relative to the annual month utilization hours; 0.28 relative to the new energy power rejection rate;
step 4, the comparison module sets a corresponding division standard table of the new energy consumption index and the consumption early warning index, and matches the index obtained in the step 3 with the division standard table to obtain a corresponding consumption early warning grade;
wherein the new energy consumption early warning indexes are divided into red, orange and green early warning grades; the new energy consumption early warning index of the red early warning level is more than or equal to 0 and less than 28; the new energy consumption early warning index of the orange early warning level is more than or equal to 28 and less than 54; and the new energy consumption early warning index of the green early warning level is greater than or equal to 54 and less than or equal to 100.
Specifically, the division standard table of the new energy consumption index and the consumption early warning index is as follows:
therefore, when the implementation operation state of the new energy station is in a stable state, power prediction is carried out based on corresponding data, so that a corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, a corresponding annual month utilization hour index and a corresponding new energy power abandonment rate index are obtained by combining the predicted power with corresponding weight, and then effective early warning analysis on new energy power generation consumption is realized by matching a division standard table so as to timely make targeted planning and measures. And when the calculation of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is realized through the corresponding new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model, the method has the effects of accurate result, effective early warning analysis of new energy power generation consumption and convenience for timely making targeted planning and measures. Meanwhile, the calculated weight value is applied to calculation of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index, and the accuracy of calculation of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is further improved.
In conclusion, the method and the device for early warning the new energy power generation and consumption obtain the corresponding new energy power generation and consumption proportion index, the corresponding annual month utilization hour index and the corresponding new energy power abandonment rate index when the implementation operation state of the new energy station is in a stable state, so that the accurate new energy power generation and consumption early warning index is obtained; furthermore, the weight value actually applied is calculated by correspondingly setting the weight value, and then the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is calculated through a new energy power generation consumption early warning index model, so that the calculation accuracy of the new energy power generation consumption early warning index is improved; and then the new energy power generation consumption is effectively early-warned and analyzed so as to make targeted planning and measures in time.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, but all technical solutions belonging to the idea of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention. It should be noted that modifications and embellishments within the scope of the present invention may occur to those skilled in the art without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such modifications and embellishments should also be considered as within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, monitoring, abnormal alarming and early warning of a real-time running state of the new energy station by a monitoring module, continuing to step 2 if the running state is normal, and continuing to step 1 if the running state is normal;
step 2, the prediction module predicts the power of the new energy station in short, medium and long periods through a prediction algorithm based on meteorological information, historical data and real-time data;
step 3, an analysis module firstly obtains corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion, corresponding annual month utilization hours and corresponding new energy power abandon rate weight according to the short, medium and long period prediction power of the new energy station, and then calculates and obtains a corresponding new energy power generation consumption proportion index, a corresponding annual month utilization hours index and a corresponding new energy power abandon rate index through a new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model;
and 4, the comparison module sets a corresponding new energy consumption index and a division standard table of the consumption early warning index, and matches the index obtained in the step 3 with the division standard table to obtain a corresponding consumption early warning grade.
2. The new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method according to claim 1, wherein in step 3, the new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis index model comprises the following formula:
wherein: renewpThe early warning index is consumed for the new energy power generation in each region; renewHiIs and CpA high-order critical value of the corresponding new energy consumption early warning index; renewLoIs and CpA corresponding low critical value of the new energy consumption early warning index; BP (Back propagation) ofHiIs CpThe high critical value of the section; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; cpThe actual value of each evaluation index.
3. The new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 3, the weight of the new energy power generation absorption specific gravity, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate is calculated by the following formula:
wherein G ispThe power generation of the new energy is provided with the corresponding weight of the specific gravity, the annual monthly utilization hours and the new energy power abandon rate; g0Setting a weight value for each evaluation; cpEvaluating the actual value of each index; BP (Back propagation) ofLoIs CpThe low critical value of the section; pnPredicting the power for the corresponding; pLoIs a low threshold for power.
4. The new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method according to claim 3, characterized in that: the G is00.35 of specific gravity is consumed for power generation relative to the new energy; 0.28 relative to the annual month utilization hours; relative to 0.28 of the new energy power rejection rate.
5. The new energy power generation consumption early warning analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 4, the new energy consumption early warning indexes are divided into red, orange and green early warning grades; the new energy consumption early warning index of the red early warning level is more than or equal to 0 and less than 28; the new energy consumption early warning index of the orange early warning level is more than or equal to 28 and less than 54; and the new energy consumption early warning index of the green early warning level is greater than or equal to 54 and less than or equal to 100.
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| CN113837898A (en) * | 2021-09-23 | 2021-12-24 | 国网电子商务有限公司 | New energy consumption calculation method and device |
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Application publication date: 20210219 |