CN112308446A - Comprehensive judgment method, system and medium for technology maturity based on multivariate data - Google Patents

Comprehensive judgment method, system and medium for technology maturity based on multivariate data Download PDF

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CN112308446A
CN112308446A CN202011246710.4A CN202011246710A CN112308446A CN 112308446 A CN112308446 A CN 112308446A CN 202011246710 A CN202011246710 A CN 202011246710A CN 112308446 A CN112308446 A CN 112308446A
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于航
李彦尊
刘强
吴克强
白玉湖
于广欣
孙洋洲
纪钦洪
李大树
吴勇虎
李林涛
郭雪飞
徐庆虎
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China National Offshore Oil Corp CNOOC
CNOOC Research Institute Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a comprehensive judgment method, a system and a medium for technical maturity based on multivariate data, which comprises the following steps: introducing external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructing a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors; constructing a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on a technology maturity model considering external environment influence factors; obtaining a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model; and judging the maturity of the comprehensive technology by using the comprehensive technology maturity model. The invention introduces external environment influence factors, considers the comprehensive influence of various branch technologies, and can effectively judge the development stage of the technology and predict the development trend of the technology.

Description

Comprehensive judgment method, system and medium for technology maturity based on multivariate data
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of technical maturity judgment and analysis, in particular to a comprehensive technical maturity judgment method, a comprehensive technical maturity judgment system and a comprehensive technical maturity judgment medium based on multivariate data.
Background
The technical maturity of a new energy source refers to the general availability (sophistication) of a certain technology in the development process. The broad technical maturity also includes a number of factors including the degree of satisfaction of the technology with respect to space-specific requirements, the technical span, technical difficulty (risk), technical availability, and technical cost. Technical maturity is one factor that measures technical capabilities. For enterprises in a changeable market environment, the technology maturity is an important reference index for making strategies and carrying out technology trade, and is also an important basis for determining the input proportion of local innovation and system innovation and grasping the innovation opportunity. The system can help enterprises to recognize the development level and the development potential of the self technology, conduct technical innovation in a time-of-flight situation, reduce investment risks, improve investment benefits and build and maintain the competitive advantages of the enterprises.
At present, the methods for judging the technical maturity mainly comprise a TRL grade method, a TRIZ method, a Fisher-Pry data model method and the like. The TRL classification method was proposed by the american aviation and space administration (NASA) in 1995 and applied to the aerospace field, and then primarily applied to the american society for science and technology, and TRL classified the maturity of technology into nine classes according to the technological development process, which is a technology maturity evaluation standard of a comparative system. The method is suitable for evaluating government procurement projects or large-scale projects, and a large amount of manpower and material resources are consumed. The TRIZ theory is proposed by the former Soviet Union G.S. alt-shuller, and is used for predicting the technical maturity of products after researching the relationship between the technical system evolution and the patent quantity, the patent grade, the product performance and the product profit by utilizing patent data information. However, the performance index and profit index data of the product are not easily obtained, and the patent grade determination depends on expert knowledge.
The data model method takes a document system and document measurement characteristics as research objects, reflects the development and change process of the technology by means of a mathematical and statistical method according to the distribution structure, the quantity relation and the change rule of documents and further judges the development stage and the maturity of the technology. Among them, the Fisher-Pry model (S-curve model) is one of the more commonly applied models. In 1971, Fisher and pry published a paper describing a technology variation model, which uses a standard S-curve to describe the development rule of the technology, and although the model is relatively simple, the model can be used to judge the ratio of replacing the old technology with the new technology, define the improvement degree of the technology, and judge the maturity degree of the new technology.
It should be noted, however, that the development of technology is often influenced by a variety of factors, both internal and external, including the degree of development of sub-technologies within the technology, which affects the overall development of the technology. External factors including the influence of national policy environment, market environment, industry environment and the like on the technology development, the technology development is always fluctuated due to the continuous change of internal and external factors, and therefore, the technical development rule is not required to be a standard S-shaped curve. At present, a proper method model is lacked, which not only reflects the influence of the development of the internal branch technology of the technology on the comprehensive maturity of the technology, but also considers the influence of the change of the external environment on the development of the technology, and has less related researches at home and abroad.
The Fisher-Pry model was first proposed by Fisher and Pry in 1971. The development rule of the technology is described by counting the number of documents or patents.
Figure BDA0002770280370000021
In the formula, y' is an index to be measured, t is time, alpha is a constant, beta is a growth rate, and L is a growth limit.
However, the technical development is easily influenced by internal and external policies, economic situations and the like, the technical development is often fluctuated, and the maturity curve is not a standard S-shaped curve, as shown in fig. 1a and 1 b; and for a certain comprehensive technology, the comprehensive technology is mostly composed of a plurality of branch technologies, and a method model is lacked at present to reflect the influence of the development of the branch technologies on the maturity of the comprehensive technology.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a comprehensive determination method, system and medium for technology maturity based on multivariate data, which introduces external environmental impact factors based on a Fisher-Pry model, considers comprehensive effects of various branch technologies, establishes a technology maturity model to predict technology maturity, determines the development stage of the technology and predicts the technology development trend.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: a comprehensive judgment method for technology maturity based on multivariate data comprises the following steps: 1) introducing external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructing a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors; 2) constructing a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on a technology maturity model considering external environment influence factors; 3) obtaining a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model; 4) and judging the maturity of the comprehensive technology by using the comprehensive technology maturity model.
Further, in the step 1), an external environment influence factor m is introduced into the Fisher-Pry model to correct the curve growth rate and represent the influence of the external environment.
Further, the technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors is as follows:
Figure BDA0002770280370000022
in the formula, y is a maturity index; t is time; b is a shape factor; τ is a shift factor; y is the growth limit.
Further, in the step 2), assuming that the integrated maturity of the technology and the maturity development of each branch technology both conform to the Fisher-Pry model, the following relationship exists between the integrated maturity of the technology and the maturity development of each branch technology:
yc＝f(y1,y2,…yn)
in the formula, ycIs a comprehensive technical maturity model; y isiFor the ith branch technology maturity model, i is 1, 2, …, n.
Further, the comprehensive technology maturity model is as follows:
Figure BDA0002770280370000031
in the formula, mcExternal environmental influencing factor for comprehensive maturity, bcA shape factor that is the overall maturity; tau iscIs a shift factor of the integrated maturity.
Further, the branch technology maturity model is as follows:
Figure BDA0002770280370000032
in the formula, miExternal environmental influencing factor which is the maturity of the Branch i technology, biForm factor for maturity of the Branch i technology; tau isiIs a shift factor of the maturity of the bifurcation i technique.
Further, in the step 3), the comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight is as follows:
Figure BDA0002770280370000033
or the like, or, alternatively,
Figure BDA0002770280370000034
in the formula, ωiFor each branch i technique's impact weight factor on the synthesis technique,
Figure BDA0002770280370000035
further, in the step 4), the specific determination method includes the following steps:
4.1) decomposing a certain comprehensive technology to be judged into a plurality of branch technologies;
4.2) carrying out stage division on the development of each branch technology according to external environmental factors;
4.3) fitting the maturity model parameters b of the branch technology of each stagei、τi(ii) a According to each stage biValue change determination of the external influence factor m at each stageiThe value is assigned according to the future policy influence factor;
4.4) weight ω for each branch techniqueiCarrying out assignment and calculating tauc、bcA parameter value;
4.5) calculating a comprehensive maturity curve by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model for each stage so as to determine the comprehensive technology maturity of the current time t.
A comprehensive judgment system for technology maturity based on multivariate data comprises: the system comprises a first construction module, a second construction module, a comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering weight and a judgment module;
the first construction module introduces external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructs a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the second construction module constructs a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on the technology maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering the weight obtains a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model;
and the judging module realizes the judgment of the comprehensive technology maturity by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model.
A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the above methods.
Due to the adoption of the technical scheme, the invention has the following advantages: according to the method, external environment influence factors are introduced on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and meanwhile, the comprehensive influence of various branch technologies is considered, so that the technical maturity model is established for predicting the technical maturity, judging the development stage of the technology and predicting the technical development trend.
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FIG. 1a is a Fisher-Pry model curve.
Fig. 1b is a real technology development curve.
FIG. 2 is a graph showing the effect of different environmental impact factors on a technical maturity curve.
FIG. 3 is a graph of technical maturity with environmental impact factors taken into account.
FIG. 4 is a graph of integrated technology maturity by segmentation.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the embodiments described are only a few embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the described embodiments of the invention, are within the scope of the invention. The invention is further described with reference to the figures and examples.
The invention provides a comprehensive judgment method for technical maturity based on multivariate data, which comprises the following steps:
on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, external environment influence factors are introduced, comprehensive influence of various branch technologies is considered, a technology maturity model is established to predict technology maturity, the development stage of the technology is judged, and the development trend of the technology is predicted.
1) Introducing external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructing a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the external environment influence factor mainly influences the technology development speed, namely the growth rate, so that the parameter m is introduced into the Fisher-Pry model to correct the curve growth rate and represent the influence of the external environment. Therefore, the technical maturity model considering the external environmental impact factors is:
Figure BDA0002770280370000051
in the formula, y is a maturity index; t is time; b is a shape factor; τ is a shift factor; y is the growth limit, and when the data is normalized, y is 1; m is an external environment influence factor, m is greater than 0 when there is an incentive policy, and m is less than 0 when the market is not favorable for technical development.
Different external environment influence factors m have different influences on the technical maturity curve, as shown in fig. 2; the technical maturity curve after considering the external environmental impact factors is shown in fig. 3.
2) Constructing a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on a technology maturity model considering external environment influence factors;
assuming that the integrated maturity of the technology and the maturity development of each branch technology both conform to the Fisher-Pry model, the following relationship exists between the integrated maturity and the branch technology:
yc＝f(y1,y2,…yn)(3)
in the formula, ycIs a comprehensive technical maturity model; y isiFor the ith branch technology maturity model, i is 1, 2, …, n.
After data normalization, the comprehensive technology maturity model is:
Figure BDA0002770280370000052
in the formula, mcExternal environmental influencing factor for comprehensive maturity, bcA shape factor that is the overall maturity; tau iscA shift factor that is the overall maturity;
after data normalization, the branch technology maturity model is:
Figure BDA0002770280370000053
in the formula, miExternal environmental influencing factor which is the maturity of the Branch i technology, biForm factor for maturity of the Branch i technology; tau isiIs a shift factor of the maturity of the bifurcation i technique.
3) Obtaining a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model;
since the relationship between the maturity of each branch technology and the maturity of the integrated technology is difficult to determine, the following is assumed to be considered: keeping the maturity of other branch technologies unchanged, and only increasing the maturity of the decomposition technology i to enable the comprehensive maturity to reach yc', the time of increase of which is DeltatiA series of branch technology maturity formulas can be obtained:
Figure BDA0002770280370000061
because the time t in the maturity formula of each branch technology is equal, the following results can be obtained:
Figure BDA0002770280370000062
for each delta tiThe value satisfies the above equation (7), let:
Figure BDA0002770280370000063
the time t obtained by bringing formula (8) into formula (7):
Figure BDA0002770280370000064
the compound represented by formula (9) is introduced into formula (4):
Figure BDA0002770280370000065
order:
Figure BDA0002770280370000066
Figure BDA0002770280370000067
meanwhile, taking the external influence factor m as a constant, which can be regarded as a part of the b parameter, let:
bc′＝(mc+1)bc (13)
bi′＝(mi+1)bi (14)
then the formula (10) can be simplified to
Figure BDA0002770280370000068
And because of
Figure BDA0002770280370000071
The combination of formula (12) and formula (9) can be obtained
Figure BDA0002770280370000072
Figure BDA0002770280370000073
To obtain bcAssuming all branch techniques yi＝ycIs obtained by
Figure BDA0002770280370000074
Therefore, the comprehensive technical maturity model is:
Figure BDA0002770280370000075
or
Figure BDA0002770280370000076
Since the influence weight of each branch technique mainly changes the development curve form of the synthesis technique, the influence of the weight factor is considered in the b, τ parameter. The influence factors of each branch technology on the comprehensive technology are as follows:
ω1+ω2+…+ωn＝1 (22)
wherein the influence weight factor omega of each branch i technology on the synthesis technologyiThe value range of (1) is (0).
For the form factorbiFormula (19) showscIn inverse proportion, the branch technical impact weight can be written as bi/ωiForm (a).
For the displacement factor tauiIs represented by formula (12) andcin direct proportion, the weight of each branch technique influence can be written as ωiτiForm (a).
Therefore, in the integrated technology maturity models (20) and (21) considering the influence of the branch technology weight, the expressions of the shape factor and the displacement factor are:
Figure BDA0002770280370000077
Figure BDA0002770280370000078
the comprehensive technical maturity model considering the weight can be obtained by respectively substituting the equations (20) and (21):
Figure BDA0002770280370000082
or
Figure BDA0002770280370000081
4) The method for judging the comprehensive technology maturity by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model specifically comprises the following steps:
4.1) decomposing a certain comprehensive technology to be judged into a plurality of branch technologies;
4.2) carrying out stage division on the development of each branch technology according to external environmental factors;
4.3) fitting the maturity model parameters b of the branch technology of each stagei、τi(ii) a According to each stage biValue change determination of the external influence factor m at each stageiThe value is assigned according to the future policy influence factor;
4.4) giving the influence weight omega of each branch technology on the development of the comprehensive technologyiDetermining the synthesisIn maturation model τc、bcAnd the like;
4.5) calculating a comprehensive maturity curve for each stage by using the comprehensive technology maturity model, as shown in FIG. 4, thereby determining the comprehensive technology maturity at the current time t.
The invention also provides a comprehensive judgment system for technical maturity based on multivariate data, which comprises: the system comprises a first construction module, a second construction module, a comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering weight and a judgment module;
the first construction module introduces external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructs a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the second construction module constructs a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on the technology maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering the weight obtains a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model;
and the judgment module judges the maturity of the comprehensive technology by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model.
The present invention also provides a computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the various embodiment methods described above.
The present invention also provides a computing device comprising: one or more processors, memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs including instructions for performing any of the above-described embodiment methods.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.

Claims (10)

1. A comprehensive judgment method for technology maturity based on multivariate data is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) introducing external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructing a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
2) constructing a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on a technology maturity model considering external environment influence factors;
3) obtaining a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model;
4) and judging the maturity of the comprehensive technology by using the comprehensive technology maturity model.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein in step 1), an external environment influence factor m is introduced into the Fisher-Pry model to correct the curve growth rate and characterize the influence of the external environment.
3. The determination method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the technical maturity model considering the external environmental influence factor is:
Figure FDA0002770280360000012
in the formula, y is a maturity index; t is time; b is a shape factor; τ is a shift factor; y is the growth limit.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2), assuming that the integrated maturity of the technology and the maturity development of each branch technology both conform to the Fisher-Pry model, the following relationship exists between the integrated maturity and the maturity development of each branch technology:
yc＝f(y1,y2,…yn)
in the formula, ycIs a comprehensive technical maturity model; y isiFor the ith branch technology maturity model, i is 1, 2, …, n.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the integrated technology maturity model is:
Figure FDA0002770280360000011
in the formula, mcExternal environmental influencing factor for comprehensive maturity, bcA shape factor that is the overall maturity; tau iscIs a shift factor of the integrated maturity.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein the branch technology maturity model is:
Figure FDA0002770280360000021
in the formula, miExternal environmental influencing factor which is the maturity of the Branch i technology, biForm factor for maturity of the Branch i technology; tau isiIs a shift factor of the maturity of the bifurcation i technique.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the integrated technology maturity model considering the weight in step 3) is:
Figure FDA0002770280360000022
or the like, or, alternatively,
Figure FDA0002770280360000023
in the formula, ωiFor each branch i technique's impact weight factor on the synthesis technique,
Figure FDA0002770280360000024
8. the method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 4), the specific determination method comprises the following steps:
4.1) decomposing a certain comprehensive technology to be judged into a plurality of branch technologies;
4.2) carrying out stage division on the development of each branch technology according to external environmental factors;
4.3) fitting the maturity model parameters b of the branch technology of each stagei、τi(ii) a According to each stage biValue change determination of the external influence factor m at each stageiThe value is assigned according to the future policy influence factor;
4.4) weight ω for each branch techniqueiCarrying out assignment and calculating tauc、bcA parameter value;
4.5) calculating a comprehensive maturity curve by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model for each stage so as to determine the comprehensive technology maturity of the current time t.
9. A comprehensive judgment system for technology maturity based on multivariate data is characterized by comprising: the system comprises a first construction module, a second construction module, a comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering weight and a judgment module;
the first construction module introduces external environment influence factors on the basis of the Fisher-Pry model, and constructs a technical maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the second construction module constructs a comprehensive technology maturity model and a branch technology maturity model based on the technology maturity model considering the external environment influence factors;
the comprehensive technology maturity model determination module considering the weight obtains a comprehensive technology maturity model considering the weight according to the comprehensive technology maturity model and the branch technology maturity model;
and the judging module realizes the judgment of the comprehensive technology maturity by utilizing the comprehensive technology maturity model.
10. A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs, the one or more programs comprising instructions, which when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods of claims 1-7.
CN202011246710.4A 2020-11-10 2020-11-10 Comprehensive judgment method, system and medium for technology maturity based on multivariate data Pending CN112308446A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN113128855A (en) * 2021-04-13 2021-07-16 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 Method, system, equipment and storage medium for evaluating maturity of hydrogen energy technology

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN113128855A (en) * 2021-04-13 2021-07-16 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 Method, system, equipment and storage medium for evaluating maturity of hydrogen energy technology

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