CN112288141A - Comprehensive benefit evaluation method for fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive benefit evaluation method of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, which comprises the following steps: a, establishing an index system starting from four aspects of economy, environment and society; b, respectively weighting the index systems by using an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method, and solving the comprehensive weight of each index based on a minimum information identification principle; and C, selecting a TOPSIS sorting algorithm combined with a prospect theory, sorting the operation comprehensive benefits of different fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations, and selecting a power station with the optimal comprehensive benefit, so that a decision reference basis can be provided for project acceptance, annual evaluation and future improvement. The TOPSIS sorting method introduced into the prospect theory of the evaluation method can better simulate the preference of investors for increasing income and reducing loss risk and the avoidance psychology of loss, and can select the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station which has no obvious short board and is excellent in all aspects, so that the effectiveness and the rationality of the evaluation method are improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station scene in a comprehensive energy service system, in particular to a comprehensive benefit evaluation method of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, which is suitable for objective quantitative evaluation and comparison of the actual operation effect of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and has important significance for improving the economic benefit, the environmental benefit and the social benefit of the operation of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station.
Background
With the development of socio-economy and the increase of load demand in China, the urgent needs of sustainable development are increasing energy supply, improving the power supply side renewable energy composition ratio, and reducing fossil fuel consumption and environmental destruction. As an important component of renewable energy, solar energy is a clean energy with the most potential for development due to its remarkable characteristics of wide distribution, abundant resources, inexhaustible resources. The Integrated Energy System (IES) can meet the diversified energy demand by coupling multiple energy sources such as electricity, traffic, natural gas, and heat and cold systems, and can improve the utilization rate of renewable energy sources by utilizing interconversion and multi-time scale collaborative optimization of various energy sources, so that the IES has become a main energy bearing form. The fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is taken as a model for integrating photovoltaic power generation with other industries in an integrated energy system, and related researches are more and more emphasized.
The fishing light complementation is that fishery cultivation and photovoltaic power generation are combined, a photovoltaic panel array is erected above the water surface of a fishpond, fish and shrimp cultivation can be carried out in a water area below the photovoltaic panel, the photovoltaic array can also provide a good shielding effect for fish cultivation, and a new power generation mode of 'upper power generation and lower fish cultivation' is formed. One of the difficulties in the traditional photovoltaic power generation is that the building time is long, the occupied area is large, and the current situation that the population of China is dense and large and the per capita area is small is unfavorable for the traditional photovoltaic development. Just our country south east portion possess a large amount of surface of water resources, and the complementary photovoltaic power plant of fishing light can be when solving the big problem of traditional photovoltaic area just, with surface of water resource make full use of, combines together with fishery breed simultaneously, can not only alleviate the nervous energy demand of country, improve land utilization, increase peasant's income, can also reach environmental protection's effect.
Since quantitative evaluation can provide a decision support basis for perfecting construction planning and improving operation benefits, comprehensive benefit evaluation research on aspects of distributed cooling, heating and power IES, regional IES economic and environmental benefits, energy utilization and the like becomes one of the current concerns of the IES except device research and development and operation optimization. The fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is used as a class of operation scenes of IES, and a set of appropriate quantitative evaluation method is very necessary to be constructed for the characteristics of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station. Therefore, the invention establishes an index system for evaluating the comprehensive operation benefit from the aspects of economy, environment, social service and the like by summarizing the comprehensive evaluation index of the IES from the characteristics of the fishing light complementary project. On the basis of further researching a combined weighting method with indexes based on the minimum discrimination information principle, and starting from overcoming the defect that the subjective risk tendency of a decision maker influences a comprehensive evaluation decision result, the comprehensive benefit optimal evaluation method of the 'fishing light complementation' photovoltaic power station based on the combination of the foreground theory and the TOPSIS method is provided, and the decision maker is helped to evaluate and judge the comprehensive benefit of the fishing light complementation project operation.
Disclosure of Invention
According to the operation characteristics of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and various created benefits, the invention provides a set of comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station from three different angles of economy, environment and society. The evaluation indexes are respectively weighted by establishing a set of index system which accords with the operation characteristics of the evaluation indexes and utilizing an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method; in order to make the comprehensive weight not to be biased to any one of the two weights as far as possible, the comprehensive weight is obtained by adopting a minimum information identification principle; in order to consider the different attitudes of investors on income and loss and the psychology of avoiding risks to the utmost, a TOPSIS sorting method added with a foreground theory is adopted to compare and sort alternative operation schemes, so that evaluation scores and results can be obtained intuitively, and a decision maker can realize the optimal decision. The comprehensive evaluation method is simple to apply, has intuitive and clear conclusion, and has good popularization and application values.
The index system diagram is shown in figure 1, the invention starts from three different angles of economy, environment and society, and provides the following indexes according to the operation characteristics of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and the service provided by the photovoltaic power station:
the evaluation index I is an economic index and is used for evaluating the annual operation income and expenditure conditions of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and the evaluation index I comprises the following two secondary indexes:
(1) annual operating costs A1The investment amount of the project from one-time investment cost to each year and the annual operation and maintenance cost of the service project are divided;
(2) annual profit margin A2Indicating the annual income and annual running cost of the project A1The annual income mainly comprises various profits of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, such as electricity selling profits, fishery profits, auxiliary service profits and the like;
the evaluation index II is an environmental index and is used for quantifying contribution and influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station on environmental protection, and the evaluation index II comprises the following four secondary indexes:
(1) low carbon benefit B1The carbon emission is reduced due to the fact that the photovoltaic power generation replaces fossil energy, and the low-carbon benefit value is expressed by photovoltaic power generation;
(2) quality of wastewater B2The fishery culture of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station can pollute the water quality due to the feed input, and the utility model is used for dischargingThe nitrogen content of the discharged wastewater is expressed;
(3) landscape compatibility B3Reflecting the compatibility degree between the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and the surrounding landscape;
(4) influence on the surrounding ecology B4The ecological influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is reflected by the change of microorganisms in the soil;
and the evaluation index III and the social index reflect the contribution and influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station on the construction of the power grid and the service demand on the user, and comprise the following three secondary indexes:
(1) degree of friendship of the grid C1The power generation of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is used as new energy power generation, has volatility and can be used for representing the influence of the power generation on a power grid;
(2) site flexibility C2Calculating by using the frequency modulation and peak regulation capacity of the photovoltaic power station;
(3) promotion of employment C3Calculating employment posts directly generated by the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and driven employment posts;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting evaluation index statistical data of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station to be evaluated, so that the data can meet the subsequent comprehensive evaluation requirement;
step 2, calculating evaluation index values of each photovoltaic power station adopting different operation schemes according to the established evaluation index calculation formula to obtain an initial data matrix X, wherein the row of the X represents the index, and the column represents the operation scheme, and for a decision situation comprising n evaluation indexes and m operation schemes, X is a matrix with the size of n X m, and the matrix is subjected to standardization treatment;
step 3, respectively utilizing an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method to weight the evaluation indexes, and determining the comprehensive weight of each evaluation index by adopting a minimum information discrimination principle;
and 4, step 4: and sequencing the comprehensive benefits of the photovoltaic power station to be evaluated by utilizing a sequencing method combining the prospect theory and the TOPSIS and obtaining the closeness of each operation scheme so as to select the optimal operation scheme.
In the above comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, in step 1, the data to be collected and the collection method are as follows:
one-time investment cost related data: counting financial statements of each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and obtaining all funds a spent during construction1(ten thousand yuan), and project standing plan operational age T (years);
annual operating cost related data: counting financial statements of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations, summing up equipment replacement, maintenance and overhaul expenses of one year, operating costs of personnel, land lease cost, subsidy of peripheral residents, software maintenance expenses, fishery breeding and the like, and obtaining annual operating cost a of each fishing light complementary power station2(ten thousand yuan);
annual operating revenue-related data: the financial statements of the photovoltaic power stations with the complementation of fishing lights are counted, and the photovoltaic power generation income R of the power stations for one year is calculated1(Wanyuan) fishery breeding income R2(ten thousand yuan), auxiliary service revenue R3(ten thousand yuan), and the like to obtain annual operating income a3(ten thousand yuan);
data relating to annual photovoltaic output: obtaining the annual photovoltaic power generation output b of each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to the electric power transaction detail between each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and the power grid1(ten thousand kilowatt-hours);
data relating to the quality of the wastewater: collecting fish culture wastewater discharged in one year at the downstream of the construction area of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and measuring the content b of nonionic ammonia nitrogen in the fish culture wastewater2n(mg/l), obtaining the average nitrogen content of the wastewater of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station by taking an average value, thereby measuring the quality of the wastewater;
landscape compatibility related data: the method is characterized in that the method of questionnaire is utilized to investigate the influence of residents around the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station or tourists on the local landscape after the photovoltaic power station is built, and the investigation and evaluation results are divided into the following grades: complete compatibility is 100, partial compatibility is 90, general compatibility is 80, incompatibility is 70, lattice rejection is 60, no less than 100 consultation feedbacks are collected, and the average value is taken as landscape compatibility evaluation basis b3；
Data related to the surrounding ecological impact: measuring the content b of microorganisms in soil in a certain area around a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station4(per gram) and the microbial content b of the soil in the area surrounding the regional non-photovoltaic power station5(one/gram) comparing, and dividing the two to obtain the influence on the surrounding ecology;
power grid friendliness related data: measuring the fluctuation of the output electric energy of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, counting the photovoltaic output power within 14:00-14:01 time, and measuring the power fluctuation percentage c1Averaging the fluctuation percentage in the statistical time period to measure the friendliness of the photovoltaic power station to the power grid;
station flexibility related data: whether the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is provided with the energy storage system or not represents the power generation controllable capacity of the power station, and the capacity c of the energy storage device configured by the photovoltaic power station2(megawatt) and photovoltaic power station generating capacity c3(megawatts) obtaining site flexibility data for the power station;
facilitating employment-related data: referring to the annual financial statement of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station to obtain the direct employment number c4(people) determining the number c of indirect employment people driven by the photovoltaic power station according to the cooperation item contract by referring to the cooperation items with surrounding farmers, residents, enterprises and the like developed by the photovoltaic power station5(human).
In the above comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, in the step 2, the calculation method for each index is as follows:
A2＝∑Rn/a1 (2)
B1＝b1 (3)
C3＝c4+c5 (9)
the calculation method of each index is given above, the data required by formula calculation is acquired by step 1 data acquisition, it should be noted that n in formula two refers to different income terms, and represents R in step 11、R2、R3N in the formula IV represents the number of days for collecting the quality of the wastewater, n in the formula V represents the feedback quantity of the collected survey landscape compatibility questionnaire, and n in the formula VII represents the number of days for counting the fluctuation quantity of the photovoltaic power generation;
calculating each index of each operation scheme according to the formula to obtain a decision matrix X, wherein the row of X represents the index, the column represents the operation scheme, and X is an n × m matrix in a decision of m operation schemes containing n indexes and is subjected to standardization treatment; the standardized processing method is as follows: for each element of X, selecting the maximum value in the row where the element is located as a reference value (namely the maximum value of the index data in all the operation schemes), dividing the data by the reference value to obtain a per unit value, marking a normalized data matrix as X, and expressing the method for normalizing the index data as a formula ten;
wherein, XijThe element, X, representing the ith row and jth column in the decision matrix XijRepresenting the element in the ith row and jth column of the normalized data matrix.
In the above comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, in step 3, the comprehensive weight determination method is as follows:
the specific steps of weighting by using the improved analytic hierarchy process are as follows: setting n evaluation indexes, wherein L experts participate in the evaluation together; firstly, L experts jointly determine the relative importance degree between indexes, and sort the indexes according to the order of the unreduced importance degree; then, each expert independently determines the importance between two adjacent indexes, and the specific numerical value of the importance is determined according to the table 1.
x1＞＝x2＞＝...＞＝xn (11)
TABLE 1 Scale of relative importance of indexes
Index x determined by ith expertjAnd xj+1The importance between is denoted as tijFinally obtaining all scale values t11、t12、…、tLn-1Obtaining the final element R of the judgment matrix R, R by calculationabTwelve calculation according to formula (R in formula)abRepresents the a row a and a column j of the judgment matrix RbaRepresenting the element of the line b and the column a of the judgment matrix R), utilizing the judgment matrix R determined by the formula twelve, compared with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the obtained judgment matrix does not need to carry out consistency check, and then obtaining the first weight of each index by the formula thirteen.
In the thirteenth formula: deltaiIndicating the first weight value of the ith index, RibRepresents the elements of the ith row and the b th column of the judgment matrix R,
represents the product of all the elements in the a-th row in the decision matrix R.
The weighting steps by the entropy weight method are as follows: assuming that m operation schemes are provided, the indexes are subjected to standardization processing, and the entropy value I of the ith index is calculated by a fourteen formulaiThen, the coefficient of difference v of each index is calculated by the formula fifteeniFinally, the second weight epsilon of the ith index is calculated by the formula sixteeni。
vi＝1-Ii (15)
In the fourteenth formula: k is a constant, and is generally 1/ln m; p is a radical ofijIs the characteristic specific gravity corresponding to the ith index in the jth sample, wherein
Finally, the minimum information discrimination principle is used to determine the comprehensive weight. Establishing an optimization model of the formula seventeen to obtain the comprehensive weight, wherein J (w) represents an optimization function, wiRepresents the integrated weight, δ, of the i-th indexiAnd epsiloniA first weight and a second weight of the i-th index determined by equations thirteen and sixteenth, respectively.
And solving the optimization model shown in the formula seventeen to obtain a calculation expression for determining the comprehensive weight of each index shown in the formula eighteenth.
δiAnd epsiloniI.e., the first weight and the second weight of the i-th index determined by equations thirteen and sixteenth.
In the above comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, in the step 4, the foreground theory and the TOPSIS combined sorting method are as follows, firstly, a decision maker determines an expected value of an index by using an average value of index values under each operation scheme to form an expected matrix Q; meanwhile, a decision matrix X with the size of n × m is formed according to all index values of the m schemes; carrying out standardization processing on elements in the matrix according to a nineteen mode;
wherein Q isiRepresenting the ith element, Q, of the desired matrix QiRepresenting the ith element in the normalized expectation matrix q.
Dividing the indexes into yield indexes and cost indexes, and comparing each value in each decision matrix with a relative expected value to obtain a yield (loss) matrix S, wherein elements in the matrix are obtained by calculating according to a formula twenty; for the profit type index, if the index value is greater than the expected value, the excess part corresponds to the profit, and if the index value is less than the expected value, the loss corresponds to the loss; the cost index is opposite to the above;
wherein s isijRepresenting the elements in row i and column j of the profit (loss) matrix S.
And calculating elements in the foreground value matrix V according to the formula twenty-one by using the gain (loss) matrix S.
In the twenty-one equation: vijThe elements in the ith row and the jth column in the foreground value matrix V are represented, alpha and beta are risk coefficients of the investor facing the income and the loss respectively, and the larger the value of the risk coefficients, the more the investor tends to take the risk; and lambda is a loss avoidance coefficient, and the larger the value of the lambda is, the more sensitive the investor is to loss is.
Then selecting positive and negative ideal points of each index, wherein the positive ideal point of the jth index
And negative ideal point
Calculated by the equation twenty-two.
For the operating scheme j, the distance from the operating scheme to the positive ideal point is calculated according to the equation twenty three
Distance from negative ideal point
Finally, the closeness d of each scheme is calculated by the formula twenty-fourjAnd sequencing to obtain the optimal operation scheme.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and effects: firstly, on an index system, the index system constructed by the method covers different contents of economy, environment and society, and the discussed benefit objects comprise different benefit subjects such as governments, operators, social public, electricity users, natural environments and the like, so that the comprehensive benefit of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station can be reflected; meanwhile, the invention adopts a double-weight endowing mode combining an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight process to obtain the weight, the endowing weight of the analytic hierarchy process is improved, the operation is simple and easy, the implementation is convenient, meanwhile, the weight is determined by the entropy weight process according to the discrete degree of the index, when the entropy of the index is larger, the representative discrete degree is larger, the useful information is more, the endowing result is reasonable, and meanwhile, the weight is not biased to any one of the two weights by adopting the minimum information discrimination principle, so that the combined endowing weight is more reasonable; compared with the traditional TOPSIS sorting method, the TOPSIS sorting method introduced with the prospect theory can simulate different preferences of investors for increasing income and reducing loss risk and avoiding the loss better, and accords with the investment psychological state of the investors from the psychological aspect, so that the optimal operation scene of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station can be selected better.
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FIG. 1 is an index system for comprehensive benefit evaluation of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station.
FIG. 2 is a comparison of final scores for each scene in an example analysis.
Detailed Description
The specific implementation of the comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is described below, and the analysis and calculation are performed by combining specific examples.
The theoretical basis and method to which the present invention relates will be described in turn.
First, the inventive principle of the present method is introduced
1. Formation of the index System
The operation mode of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station combines photovoltaic power generation and fishery breeding to realize upper-layer power generation and lower-layer fish culture. In fact, when the land area occupied by the traditional photovoltaic is saved, fishery breeding cooperation with surrounding farmers can be enhanced, regional economic development is promoted, and meanwhile, the effect of environmental protection is promoted. Therefore, the index system is designed from the aspects of photovoltaic power generation, fishery culture, environmental protection and regional development, such as waste water generated by fish culture, ecological influence of photovoltaic power stations, interaction with power grids, low-carbon effect brought by photovoltaics and the like. If, with the future development of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, it can achieve a new cooperation mode with social boundaries through other modes, and add some new contents, the index system can also construct a new sub-index through the same principle and from the benefit provided by the index system, but the construction principle of the index system is still in the framework of the invention.
2. Weight assignment of index systems
The comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station comprises the improved analytic hierarchy process, the entropy weight process and the minimum information identification principle. The analytic hierarchy process is a method for dividing factors related to decision into different levels such as target, criterion, scheme and the like, and carrying out qualitative and quantitative decision on the basis. In the general analytic hierarchy process, three steps of establishing a model, forming a judgment matrix and consistency check are carried out, and the formed judgment matrix often has the defect that the consistency requirement is not met. The entropy weight method determines the weight according to the discrete degree of the index, when the entropy of the index is larger, the representative discrete degree is larger, the useful information is more, the effectiveness is achieved, meanwhile, the weight is not biased to any one of the two weights by adopting a minimum information identification principle, and the combination weighting is more reasonable.
3. TOPSIS sequencing method introducing prospect theory
In the prior art, TOPSIS is a multi-objective decision method commonly used for scheme ranking, and scores of the scheme can be obtained by the TOPSIS ranking method aiming at different running schemes, and the item ranking is determined by comparing the scores. The sequencing method is simple and easy to implement, but has certain disadvantages: project investors are in a limited rationality, the attitudes of income and risk are different, the traditional TOPSIS method cannot take the psychology of the investors into consideration, and therefore a prospect theory is introduced to improve the TOPSIS sorting method.
Secondly, the following specific examples are described with reference to the above method, including the following steps:
the first step is as follows: establishment of an index System
Step 1: firstly, a reasonable comprehensive benefit evaluation index system is constructed according to service projects specifically provided by the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station. Comparing the comprehensive benefits of the operation of the following five fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations, wherein the first photovoltaic power station has the largest investment amount and the highest annual profit, and has better promotion effect on social development, but has slightly poor benefit on environmental protection; the second photovoltaic power station has no outstanding advantages except that the power generation is stable, and the investment is high; the third photovoltaic power station has the defects of large power generation fluctuation and insufficient flexibility, but other indexes are in a better level in comparison; the annual operation and maintenance cost of the fourth photovoltaic power station is low, but the annual profit is the lowest among the five power stations; photovoltaic electricity is more balanced in all aspects. The raw data for each fishing light complementary photovoltaic plant is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 original data sheet of different fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station
Step 2: the raw data was normalized and the normalized data obtained is shown in Table 3 below
TABLE 3 standardized data sheet for different fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station
And step 3: respectively weighting the evaluation indexes by using an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method, and obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index in an evaluation index system by using a minimum information identification principle;
and (3) solving a first weight by using an analytic hierarchy process: three experts are allowed to perform review ranking on the index importance, and the ranking of the index importance and the result of the importance review are shown in table 4. The numbers in the table represent the relative importance of the index and the next index as determined by the expert on the importance scale, so the last row has no data.
TABLE 4 index importance ranking table
From tables 3 and 4, the weights can be obtained by using formulas twelve to sixteen, and finally the comprehensive weights can be obtained by using the minimum information discrimination principle, and the numerical values of the weights are shown in table 5 below.
In the thirteenth formula: deltaaThe first weight value of each index is represented,
represents the product of all the elements in the a-th row in the decision matrix R.
vj＝1-Ij (15)
In the fourteenth formula: k is a constant, generally taken as k 1/ln; p is a radical ofijIs the characteristic specific gravity corresponding to the j index in the ith sample, wherein
δ in formula eighteeniAnd epsiloniI.e., the first weight and the second weight obtained by the thirteen formula and the sixteen formula.
TABLE 5 index weight table
As can be seen by combining tables 3 and 4, the experts pay attention to the economic benefits of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, the project income and expenditure occupy important positions, and the low-carbon benefits of the project are taken as the flexibility of the power generation station, and then the ecological influence and other benefits are formed, so that the first weight is formed; the second weight is determined by the discrete degree of each index value in the five schemes; after the weights are integrated, the project yield can be obtained, the influence of employment and wastewater quality is promoted to be the largest in the example, the important effects on the surrounding ecological influence and the operating annual cost are achieved, and the influence of other benefit indexes is small.
And 4, step 4: and comprehensively sequencing all the alternative operation schemes by utilizing a sequencing method combining the introduction of a foreground theory and TOPSIS to obtain an optimal solution.
Through the calculation of a foreground theory, the average value of all the scheme indexes is selected as the expected value of the index, the specific numerical value of the value matrix V can be calculated through the formula twenty-one and the formula twenty-two and is shown in the table 5, in the example, the value of the risk coefficient is 0.88, and the loss avoidance coefficient is 2.25.
TABLE 5 Foreground value matrix Table
Taking the maximum value of each index as a positive ideal point and the minimum value as a negative ideal point, calculating the distance from each operation scheme to the positive ideal point and the negative ideal point by using a formula of twenty-three, calculating a final result according to a formula of twenty-four, and sequencing to obtain a photovoltaic power station five, a photovoltaic power station three, a photovoltaic power station four, a photovoltaic power station one and a photovoltaic power station two, wherein the specific scoring condition of each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is shown in figure 2.
The analysis of the scoring situation by combining table 5 and fig. 2 shows that: in the fifth photovoltaic power station, more than half of indexes exceed the reference value and the numerical value is dominant, and meanwhile, no short plate is particularly obvious, and the final arrangement name is the first; the third photovoltaic power station obtains better values on the yield of important indexes, the quality of wastewater and the influence on the surrounding ecology, but has higher loss on the aspects of operation annual cost and employment promotion of other important indexes, so that the third photovoltaic power station is discharged to the second photovoltaic power station; the photovoltaic power station four has better performance on other indexes, but the annual profit rate and the employment promotion short board are larger, and meanwhile, the two indexes have higher weights, so that the score ranking is only the third; although the photovoltaic power station I has the highest annual profit and the highest employment promoting benefit, the photovoltaic power station I has a significant short board on the important index wastewater quality, which is considered as a huge loss in the prospect theoretical analysis, so that the photovoltaic power station I is only discharged forth; the second scheme has no outstanding advantages, most indexes have poor scoring condition, the scoring is lower, and the fifth scheme is ranked. It can be seen from the above that, in the five fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations, the photovoltaic power station five has better performance in all aspects due to the absence of the short plate, and becomes the optimal station of comprehensive benefit, while the photovoltaic power station three, the photovoltaic power station four and the photovoltaic power station one have project advantages, but have obvious project short plates, so the arrangement is backward, and the photovoltaic power station two has poor performance in all aspects, and becomes the worst station of comprehensive benefit evaluation in comparison.
The evaluation result shows that the comprehensive benefit evaluation method for the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station can effectively compare the comprehensive benefits generated by different fishing light complementary comprehensive power stations, and the established evaluation index system can reflect the influences of different aspects of economy, environment and society. Because different choices of a decision maker for scheme gains and loss risks are considered in the prospect theory, in the example, the risks faced by the gains are considered to be more conservative, and the loss avoidance is more prone, the gains brought by the highest indexes of the three weight proportions of the three photovoltaic power stations are reduced, and finally, the photovoltaic power station comprehensively considered is an optimal station; and for the photovoltaic power station I, the loss of the photovoltaic power station I, which accounts for the larger index of the weight of the wastewater quality, is further amplified, so that the final score of the station is lower, and the loss avoiding characteristic of an investor is fully displayed. Therefore, the evaluation method can effectively simulate different tendencies of investors to profit and loss and psychological characteristics more sensitive to loss, thereby being beneficial to decision makers to select the best operation site which is most balanced and has good performances in all aspects, and providing references for project acceptance, annual evaluation and project improvement schemes.
Claims (5)
1. A comprehensive benefit evaluation method of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is characterized in that an evaluation index system based on establishment comprises the following steps:
the evaluation index I is an economic index and is used for evaluating the annual operation income and expenditure conditions of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and the evaluation index I comprises the following two secondary indexes:
(1) annual operating costs A1The investment amount of the project from one-time investment cost to each year and the annual operation and maintenance cost of the service project are divided;
(2) annual profit margin A2Indicating the annual income and annual running cost of the project A1Wherein the annual income comprises various profits of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station;
the evaluation index II is an environmental index and is used for quantifying contribution and influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station on environmental protection, and the evaluation index II comprises the following four secondary indexes:
(1) low carbon benefit B1The carbon emission is reduced due to the fact that the photovoltaic power generation replaces fossil energy, and the low-carbon benefit value is expressed by photovoltaic power generation;
(2) quality of wastewater B2The fishery culture of the fishery light complementary photovoltaic power station can pollute the water quality due to the input of feed, and is expressed by the nitrogen content of the discharged wastewater;
(3) landscape compatibility B3Reflecting the compatibility degree between the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and the surrounding landscape;
(4) influence on the surrounding ecology B4The ecological influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is reflected by the change of microorganisms in the soil;
and the evaluation index III and the social index reflect the contribution and influence of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station on the construction of the power grid and the service demand on the user, and comprise the following three secondary indexes:
(1) degree of friendship of the grid C1The power generation of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station is used as new energy power generation, has volatility and can be used for representing the influence of the power generation on a power grid;
(2) site flexibility C2Calculating by using the frequency modulation and peak regulation capacity of the photovoltaic power station;
(3) promotion of employment C3Calculating employment posts directly generated by the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and driven employment posts;
the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting evaluation index statistical data of a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station to be evaluated, so that the data can meet the subsequent comprehensive evaluation requirement;
step 2, calculating evaluation index values of each photovoltaic power station adopting different operation schemes according to the established evaluation index calculation formula to obtain an initial data matrix X, wherein the row of the X represents the index, and the column represents the operation scheme, and for a decision situation comprising n evaluation indexes and m operation schemes, X is a matrix with the size of n X m, and the matrix is subjected to standardization treatment;
step 3, weighting the evaluation indexes by respectively utilizing an improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method, and determining the comprehensive weight of each evaluation index by adopting a minimum information discrimination principle;
and 4, step 4: and sequencing the comprehensive benefits of the photovoltaic power station to be evaluated by utilizing a sequencing method combining the prospect theory and the TOPSIS and obtaining the closeness of each operation scheme so as to select the optimal operation scheme.
2. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to claim 1, characterized in that in the step 1, the data to be collected and the collection method are as follows:
one-time investment cost related data: counting financial statements of each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and obtaining all funds a spent during construction1(ten thousand yuan), and project standing plan operational age T (years);
annual operating cost related data: counting financial statements of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations, summing up equipment replacement, maintenance and overhaul expenses of one year, personnel cost, land lease cost, subsidy of peripheral residents, software maintenance expenses, fishery breeding and other operation costs, and obtaining the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power stations of each stationAnnual operating cost of a station2(ten thousand yuan);
annual operating revenue-related data: the financial statements of the photovoltaic power stations with the complementation of fishing lights are counted, and the photovoltaic power generation income R of the power stations for one year is calculated1(Wanyuan) fishery breeding income R2(ten thousand yuan), auxiliary service revenue R3(ten thousand yuan), and the like to obtain annual operating income a3(ten thousand yuan);
data relating to annual photovoltaic output: obtaining the annual photovoltaic power generation output b of each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to the electric power transaction detail between each fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station and the power grid1(ten thousand kilowatt-hours);
data relating to the quality of the wastewater: collecting fish culture wastewater discharged in one year at the downstream of the construction area of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, and measuring the content b of nonionic ammonia nitrogen in the fish culture wastewater2n(mg/l), obtaining the average nitrogen content of the wastewater of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station by taking an average value, thereby measuring the quality of the wastewater;
landscape compatibility related data: the method is characterized in that the method of questionnaire is utilized to investigate the influence of residents around the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station or tourists on the local landscape after the photovoltaic power station is built, and the investigation and evaluation results are divided into the following grades: complete compatibility is 100, partial compatibility is 90, general compatibility is 80, incompatibility is 70, lattice rejection is 60, no less than 100 consultation feedbacks are collected, and the average value is taken as landscape compatibility evaluation basis b3；
Data related to the surrounding ecological impact: measuring the content b of microorganisms in soil in a certain area around a fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station4(per gram) and the microbial content b of the soil in the area surrounding the regional non-photovoltaic power station5(one/gram) comparing, and dividing the two to obtain the influence on the surrounding ecology;
power grid friendliness related data: measuring the fluctuation of the output electric energy of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station, counting the photovoltaic output power within 14:00-14:01 time, and measuring the power fluctuation percentage c1Averaging the fluctuation percentage in the statistical time period to measure the friendliness of the photovoltaic power station to the power grid;
station flexibility related data: fishing light complementary photovoltaicWhether the power station is provided with the energy storage system or not represents the power generation controllable capacity of the power station, and the capacity c of the energy storage device configured by the photovoltaic power station2(megawatt) and photovoltaic power station generating capacity c3(megawatts) obtaining site flexibility data for the power station;
facilitating employment-related data: referring to the annual financial statement of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station to obtain the direct employment number c4(people) determining the number c of indirect employment people driven by the photovoltaic power station according to the cooperation item contract by referring to the cooperation items with surrounding farmers, residents, enterprises and the like developed by the photovoltaic power station5(human).
3. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the calculation method of each evaluation index specifically comprises the following steps:
A2＝∑Rn/a1 (2)
B1＝b1 (3)
C3＝c4+c5 (9)
the calculation method of each index is given above, the data required by formula calculation is acquired by step 1 data acquisition, it should be noted that n in formula two refers to different income terms, and represents R in step 11、R2、R3N in the formula IV represents the number of days for collecting the quality of the wastewater, n in the formula V represents the feedback quantity of the collected survey landscape compatibility questionnaire, and n in the formula VII represents the number of days for counting the fluctuation quantity of the photovoltaic power generation;
calculating each index of each operation scheme according to the formula to obtain a decision matrix X, wherein the row of X represents the index, the column represents the operation scheme, and X is an n × m matrix in a decision of m operation schemes containing n indexes and is subjected to standardization treatment; the standardized processing method is as follows: for each element of X, selecting the maximum value in the row as a reference value, namely the maximum value of the index data in all the operation schemes, dividing the data by the reference value to obtain a per unit value, marking a normalized data matrix as X, and expressing the method for normalizing the index data as a formula ten;
wherein, XijRepresents the ith row, jth column element, X in the decision matrix XijRepresenting the ith row and jth column element of the normalized data matrix.
4. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to claim 1, wherein in the step 3, the weight determination method specifically comprises the following steps:
the specific steps of weighting by using the improved analytic hierarchy process are as follows: setting n evaluation indexes, wherein L experts participate in the evaluation together; firstly, L experts jointly determine the relative importance degree between indexes, and sort the indexes according to the order of the unreduced importance degree; then, determining the importance between two adjacent indexes independently by each expert, wherein the specific numerical value of the importance is determined according to the table 1;
x1＞＝x2＞＝...＞＝xn (11)
TABLE 1 Scale of relative importance of indexes
Index x determined by ith expertjAnd xj+1The importance between is denoted as tijFinally obtaining all scale values t11、t12、…、tLn-1Obtaining the final element R of the judgment matrix R, R by calculationabTwelve calculation according to formula (R in formula)abRepresents the a row a and a column j of the judgment matrix RbaRepresenting the element of the line b and the column a of the judgment matrix R), utilizing the judgment matrix R determined by the formula twelve, comparing with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, obtaining the judgment matrix without consistency check, and obtaining the first weight of each index by the formula thirteen;
in the thirteenth formula: deltaiIndicating the first weight value of the ith index, RibRepresents the elements of the ith row and the b th column of the judgment matrix R,
represents the product of all elements in the a-th row in the judgment matrix R;
the weighting method by entropy weight method comprises the following steps: supposing that m operation schemes are provided, and calculating the entropy value I of the ith index by using a fourteen formula based on standardized processing index dataiThen, the coefficient of difference v of each index is calculated by the formula fifteeniFinally, the second weight epsilon of the ith index is calculated by the formula sixteeni；
vi＝1-Ii (15)
In the fourteenth formula: k is a constant, and k is 1/lnm; p is a radical ofijRepresenting the characteristic proportion corresponding to the ith index in the jth sample, wherein
Finally, determining comprehensive weight by using a minimum information discrimination principle; establishing an optimization model of the formula seventeen to obtain the comprehensive weight, wherein J (w) represents an optimization function, wiRepresents the integrated weight, δ, of the i-th indexiAnd epsiloniA first weight and a second weight of an i-th index determined for equations thirteen and sixteenth, respectively;
solving the optimization model shown in the formula seventeen to obtain a calculation expression for determining the comprehensive weight of each index shown in the formula eighteenth;
δiand epsiloniI.e. the i-th order determined for thirteen and sixteenthA first weight and a second weight of each index.
5. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method of the fishing light complementary photovoltaic power station according to claim 1, wherein the step 4, the foreground theory and TOPSIS combined sorting method comprises the following specific steps:
firstly, a decision maker determines an expected value of an index by using the average value of index values under each operation scheme to form an expected matrix Q; meanwhile, a decision matrix X with the size of n × m is formed according to all index values of the m schemes; carrying out standardization processing on elements in the matrix according to a nineteen mode;
wherein Q isiRepresenting the ith element, Q, of the desired matrix QiRepresenting the ith element in the normalized expectation matrix q;
dividing the indexes into yield indexes and cost indexes, and comparing each value in each decision matrix with a relative expected value to obtain a yield (loss) matrix S, wherein elements in the matrix are obtained by calculating according to a formula twenty; for the profit type index, if the index value is greater than the expected value, the excess part corresponds to the profit, and if the index value is less than the expected value, the loss corresponds to the loss; the cost index is opposite to the above;
wherein s isijElements representing the ith row and jth column of the profit (loss) matrix S;
calculating elements in the foreground value matrix V according to the formula twenty-one by using a gain (loss) matrix S;
in the twenty-one equation: vijThe elements in the ith row and the jth column in the foreground value matrix V are represented, alpha and beta are risk coefficients of the investor facing the income and the loss respectively, and the larger the value of the risk coefficients, the more the investor tends to take the risk; lambda is a loss avoidance coefficient, and the larger the value of the lambda is, the more sensitive the investor is to loss is;
then, positive and negative ideal points of each index are selected, wherein the positive ideal point of the ith index
And negative ideal point
Calculating by the formula twenty-two;
for the operating scheme j, the distance from the operating scheme to the positive ideal point is calculated according to the equation twenty three
Distance from negative ideal point
Finally, the closeness d of the operation scheme j is calculated by the formula twenty-fourjAnd sequencing to determine the optimal operation scheme;
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