CN112270423A - Assessment method for state of transformer substation equipment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for evaluating the state of transformer substation equipment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which is characterized in that a multi-index evaluation model for evaluating the state of the transformer substation equipment is established, and an evaluation result is more comprehensive and accurate as the equipment layer, the first-level index layer and the second-level index layer are progressively advanced; on the basis of a linear weighted combination method, the subjective weight and the objective weight of the index layer are integrated, so that the influence of subjective factors on an evaluation result is reduced, and the evaluation result has more objectivity; based on the membership function composed of the semi-trapezoids and the triangles, the shape is simple, the calculation is convenient, and the calculation result is accurate.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of substation equipment state evaluation methods in the field of power engineering, in particular to a substation equipment state evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
Background
With the continuous development of the transformer substation, the adopted sensor, electronic, information, control and software technologies form a unified application platform. At present, the transformer substation can provide more information such as dynamic performance detection, system aging, dynamic capacity and the like besides the original main system control, protection and monitoring functions. The improvement of the performance of the transformer substation provides higher requirements for the reliability of the transformer substation, and the maintenance scheme is also changed greatly. From the perspective of maintenance cost, the workload of scheduled maintenance and after-event maintenance is large and the effect is not obvious, and the online monitoring system and the state information management system ensure the state maintenance of the transition from scheduled maintenance to the next stage.
The analytic hierarchy process is to construct analytic hierarchy structure, and needs to decompose evaluation index until reaching specific evaluation index layer. Firstly, the indexes to be evaluated are compared pairwise according to the related data and expert opinions to determine a pairwise comparison matrix, the maximum characteristic value and the corresponding characteristic vector of the matrix are obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation coefficient of the evaluation transformer substation is obtained after normalization processing. However, the analytic hierarchy process is greatly influenced by subjective factors in the evaluation process, so that the obtained result is lack of persuasion, and even the evaluation result is wrong in severe cases.
The entropy weight method is an objective weighting method, fully utilizes information provided by original data, and is a simple and feasible method in practical application. In the data matrix, the larger the difference degree of a certain index value is, the smaller the information entropy is, and the larger the weight of the index is; conversely, the smaller the difference degree of a certain index is, the larger the information entropy is, the smaller the weight of the index is. However, the original data of the objective weight method is derived from the actual data of each index, and the source of the subjectivity of the index weight is cut off, so that the weight has absolute objectivity, and the calculated result may be greatly different from the actual situation.
In order to solve the above problem, the determination of the weight should be a comprehensive reflection of the objective information of the evaluation index and the subjective judgment of the evaluator, and the subjective and objective weights of each evaluation index are integrated to accurately reflect the actual weight of each index. In practice, people often determine the weight of the evaluation index by adopting a linear weighted combination method, select a proper preference coefficient according to the actual situation, apply a linear weighted combination formula, and calculate the final evaluation index weight.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a substation equipment state evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which is based on a membership function consisting of a semi-trapezoid and a triangle, and has the advantages of simple shape, convenience in calculation and relatively accurate calculation result.
In order to achieve the technical effects, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a transformer substation equipment state evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation comprises the following steps:
s1: selecting a device layer for evaluating the transformer substation and a primary index and a secondary index below the device layer, wherein the device layer comprises a transformer, a breaker, an isolating switch and a mutual inductor;
s2: establishing a transformer substation evaluation state set V, V ═ V { V1,v2,v3,v4In which v is1,v2,v3,v4Respectively representing the evaluation state as a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state;
s3: constructing a pair comparison matrix of each first-level index relative to the equipment layer and each second-level index relative to the first-level index, and calculating the maximum eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvalue of the pair comparison matrixSign vector, normalization to obtain subjective weight value alphajCarrying out consistency check on the obtained weight values;
s4: standardizing the data of each index, solving the information entropy of each index, and determining the objective weight value beta of each index according to the information entropyj;
S5: integrating the subjective weight and the objective weight of each index by adopting a linear weighting combination method to obtain a final evaluation weight value;
s6: and establishing a fuzzy relation matrix by using the selected membership function according to the evaluation result of the expert on each secondary index, and acquiring a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result through the final weight value and the fuzzy relation matrix so as to determine the evaluation result of the state of the substation equipment.
Further, in step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the transformer include an electrical test characteristic index, an index of gas dissolved in oil, an insulating oil characteristic index, and other factor indexes; wherein the electrical test characteristic indexes comprise secondary indexes including insulation resistance, absorption ratio, leakage current and dielectric loss value; the second level indicator included in the indicator of dissolved gas in oil is H2Volume fraction, C2H2Volume fraction, total hydrocarbon relative gas production rate, CO relative gas production rate; the secondary indexes contained in the insulating oil characteristic indexes comprise dielectric loss of oil, micro-water mass fraction in the oil and breakdown voltage; secondary indexes contained in other factor indexes comprise a capacity-load ratio, a load rate, environmental factors and maintenance records;
in the step S1, the first-level indexes corresponding to the circuit breaker include an on-off wear index, an operation parameter index, an insulation medium index, and other factor indexes; wherein, the second level indexes contained in the on-off abrasion indexes comprise abrasion degree, on-off times and service years; the secondary indexes contained in the operation parameter indexes have time parameters, speed parameters and conductive loop resistance; the secondary indexes contained in the indexes of the insulating medium comprise gas pressure, micro-water content and mineral oil content; the secondary indexes contained in other factor indexes comprise working environment, appearance condition, maintenance record and manufacturers;
in the step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the isolating switch include the opening and closing degree, the conductance element, the transmission component, the porcelain bottle, and the secondary element fault condition; in the step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the transformers include the relative content of H2, the relative content of CH4, the relative content of C2H2, the relative content of C2H4, and the relative content of C2H 6.
Further, in the step S4, the index data is normalized for a given k primary indexes X1,X2,…,XkWherein X isi={x1,x2,…xn};
The calculation formula for solving the information entropy of each index isWherein,if p isijWhen 0, then
The calculation formula for determining the objective weight value of each index through the information entropy is as follows: wherein EiThe information entropy of each index.
Further, in step S5, the linear-weighted combination method determines the index integration weight WjIs represented by the formula Wj=δαj+(1-δ)βjIn which α isjIs the weight, beta, calculated by an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight is obtained by calculating an entropy weight method, and delta is a preference coefficient of the main weight and the objective weight of each evaluation index.
Further, in step S6, the step of establishing the fuzzy relation matrix by using the membership function is to use a membership function formed by combining a semi-trapezoid and a triangle, the selected membership function is a membership function of the semi-trapezoid and the triangle, and the function is:
x is the actual value of the score of each index.
Further, in step S6, the weight distribution B of each index to the evaluation level V is determined by the membership function (B)1,b2,b3,b4);
When b is1=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in a normal state, the equipment can normally run when the running state value of the equipment is within a specified value;
when b is2=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in the attention state, the running state value of the equipment tends to be close to a specified value, and monitoring measures should be taken on the equipment;
when b is3=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in an abnormal state, the running state value W of the equipment is close to or exceeds a specified value, and maintenance work is required to be arranged if necessary;
when b is4=max{b1,b2,b3,b4And when the substation is in a serious state, the running state value of the equipment seriously exceeds a specified value, and maintenance personnel are required to be arranged for overhauling as soon as possible.
Further, in step S6, the evaluation result is converted into a score for analysis:
let the comment set V be { normal, note, abnormal, severe } {100, 70, 40, 0}, then the score of each index is:
u1=b11*100+b12*70+b13*40+b14*0
u2=b21*100+b22*70+b23*40+b24*0
u3=b31*100+b32*70+b33*40+b34*0
u4=b41*100+b42*70+b43*40+b44*0
U=b1*100+b2*70+b3*40+b4*0
and providing an effective maintenance plan for maintenance of the substation equipment according to the calculated U value and the evaluation result of the corresponding equipment, and determining the actual operation state of the substation according to the final evaluation result.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme of the invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, a multi-index evaluation model for evaluating the state of the substation equipment is established, and the evaluation result is more comprehensive and accurate as the equipment layer, the first-level index layer and the second-level index layer are progressively advanced; on the basis of a linear weighted combination method, the subjective weight and the objective weight of the index layer are integrated, so that the influence of subjective factors on an evaluation result is reduced, and the evaluation result has more objectivity; based on the membership function composed of the semi-trapezoids and the triangles, the shape is simple, the calculation is convenient, and the calculation result is accurate.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a hierarchical structure diagram of a device layer, a primary index and a secondary index selected for the substation evaluation model.
Detailed Description
The drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the patent;
for the purpose of better illustrating the embodiments, certain features of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of an actual product;
it will be understood by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted.
The technical solution of the present invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
As shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating the state of a substation device based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation includes the following steps:
step 1: selecting a device layer for evaluating the transformer substation and a primary index and a secondary index below the device layer, wherein the device layer comprises a transformer, a breaker, an isolating switch and a mutual inductor;
the first-level indexes corresponding to the transformer comprise electrical test characteristic indexes, indexes of gas dissolved in oil, insulating oil characteristic indexes and other factor indexes; wherein the electrical test characteristic indexes comprise secondary indexes including insulation resistance, absorption ratio, leakage current and dielectric loss value; the second level indicator included in the indicator of dissolved gas in oil is H2Volume fraction, C2H2Volume fraction, total hydrocarbon relative gas production rate, CO relative gas production rate; the secondary indexes contained in the insulating oil characteristic indexes comprise dielectric loss of oil, micro-water mass fraction in the oil and breakdown voltage; secondary indexes contained in other factor indexes comprise a capacity-load ratio, a load rate, environmental factors and maintenance records;
the first-level indexes corresponding to the circuit breaker comprise a breaking wear index, an operation parameter index, an insulation medium index and other factor indexes; wherein, the second level indexes contained in the on-off abrasion indexes comprise abrasion degree, on-off times and service years; the secondary indexes contained in the operation parameter indexes have time parameters, speed parameters and conductive loop resistance; the secondary indexes contained in the indexes of the insulating medium comprise gas pressure, micro-water content and mineral oil content; the secondary indexes contained in other factor indexes comprise working environment, appearance condition, maintenance record and manufacturers;
the first-level indexes corresponding to the isolating switch comprise the opening and closing degree, the conductance element, the transmission part, the porcelain bottle and the secondary element fault condition;
the first-level index corresponding to the mutual inductor comprises H2Relative content of, CH4Relative content of (C)2H2Relative content of (C)2H4Relative content of (C)2H6Relative amounts of (c).
Step 2: establishing a transformer substation evaluation state set V, V ═ V { V1,v2,v3,v4In which v is1,v2,v3,v4The evaluation states are respectively a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state, and the relationship between each specific state parameter and the state of the transformer substation is shown in table 1.
Table 1 relationship between each state parameter and the state of the substation
And step 3: establishing a pair comparison matrix of each first-level index relative to the equipment layer and each second-level index relative to the first-level index, calculating the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector of the pair comparison matrix, and normalizing to obtain a subjective weighted value alphajAnd carrying out consistency check on the obtained weight values.
Step 3.1: targeting A, ui、uj(i, j ═ 1, 2,. cndot., n) represents the factor uijRepresents uiFor u is pairedjThe elements in the decision matrix are represented by the t.l. satyty 1-9 scaleThe result of two-by-two comparison of the same elements, i.e. aijAs shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 T.L.Sataty1-9 Scale values and their meanings
Step 3.2: determining a paired comparison matrix A of each level of indexes, calculating the maximum eigenvalue of the paired comparison matrix A and the corresponding eigenvector thereof, and normalizing the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector to obtain a vector:
w=(w1,w2,…w3)
step 3.3: in the process of establishing the paired comparison matrix, the order of the matrix and the difference of subjective thinking will have a certain influence on the established matrix, so that the initial relative weight value needs to be verified in a consistent manner. The consistency check formula is as follows:
CR=CI/RI
where CI is a general index of the degree of deviation of the consistency of the pair-wise comparison matrix A, and is represented by CI ═ λmaxCalculated as-n)/(n-1), λ maxThe maximum eigenvalue of A; RI is an average random consistency index of the pairwise comparison matrix A and is used for eliminating the influence of the matrix order, and the CI value is corrected and the value of the CI value is shown in Table 2; CR is the random consistency ratio of the pairwise comparison matrix a.
Generally, under the condition that n is larger than or equal to 3 and CR is larger than 0 and smaller than 0.10, the consistency deviation degree of the paired comparison matrixes is smaller, and the weight values distributed by all indexes are reasonable; otherwise, the values of the pair comparison matrix are readjusted according to the table 3 until the consistency reaches a satisfactory degree.
RI values for the 31-11 th order pairwise comparison matrix of Table
And 4, step 4: standardizing the data of each index, solving the information entropy of each index, and determining each index according to the information entropyTarget objective weight value betaj。
Step 4.1: the data of each index is standardized, and k indexes, such as X, given to the index layer1、X2…, Xk, wherein Xi={x1,x2,…,xn}. Assuming that the value normalized for each index is Y1、Y2、…、YkThen the normalized formula is:
step 4.2: and solving the information entropy of each index, wherein the calculation formula of the information entropy is as follows:
Step 4.3: according to the calculation formula of the information entropy, the information entropy of each index is calculated to be E1、E2、…、Ek. The weight formula of each index is calculated through the information entropy as follows:
and 5: and (4) integrating the subjective weight and the objective weight of each index by adopting a linear weighting combination method to obtain a final evaluation weight value.
Method for solving comprehensive weight W of index by linear weighting combination methodjThe formula of (1) is:
Wj=δαj+(1-δ)βj,j=1,2,…,n
wherein alpha isjIs the weight, beta, calculated by an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight is obtained by calculating an entropy weight method, and delta is a preference coefficient of the main weight and the objective weight of each evaluation index. For convenience of calculation, δ is taken to be 0.5, that is, the comprehensive weight is an arithmetic mean of the subjective weight and the objective weight.
Step 6: and establishing a fuzzy relation matrix by using the selected membership function according to the evaluation result of the expert on each secondary index, and acquiring a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result through the final weight value and the fuzzy relation matrix so as to determine the evaluation result of the state of the substation equipment.
Step 6.1: the selected membership functions are semi-trapezoidal and triangular membership functions, the functions being:
In this embodiment, x is the actual value of each index.
Step 6.2: determining the weight distribution B of each index relative to the evaluation grade V through a membership function, (B)1,b2,b3,b4):
When b is1=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in a normal state, the equipment can normally run when the running state value of the equipment is within a specified value;
when b is2=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in the attention state, the running state value of the equipment tends to be close to a specified value, and monitoring measures should be taken on the equipment;
when b is3=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in an abnormal state, the running state value W of the equipment is close to or exceeds a specified value, and maintenance work is required to be arranged if necessary;
when b is4=max{b1,b2,b3,b4And when the substation is in a serious state, the running state value of the equipment seriously exceeds a specified value, and maintenance personnel are required to be arranged for overhauling as soon as possible.
Step 6.3: converting the evaluation result into a score for analysis
Let the comment set V be { normal, note, abnormal, severe } {100, 70, 40, 0}, then the score of each index is:
u1=b11*100+b12*70+b13*40+b14*0
u2=b21*100+b22*70+b23*40+b24*0
u3=b31*100+b32*70+b33*40+b34*0
u4=b41*100+b42*70+b43*40+b44*0
U=b1*100+b2*70+b3*40+b4*0
and providing an effective maintenance plan for maintenance of the substation equipment according to the calculated U value and the evaluation result of the corresponding equipment, and determining the actual operation state of the substation according to the final evaluation result.
The same or similar reference numerals correspond to the same or similar parts;
the positional relationships depicted in the drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent;
it should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A transformer substation equipment state evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: selecting a device layer for evaluating the transformer substation and a primary index and a secondary index below the device layer, wherein the device layer comprises a transformer, a breaker, an isolating switch and a mutual inductor;
s2: establishing a transformer substation evaluation state set V, V ═ V { V1,v2,v3,v4In which v is1,v2,v3,v4Respectively representing the evaluation state as a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state;
s3: establishing a pair comparison matrix of each first-level index relative to the equipment layer and each second-level index relative to the first-level index, calculating the maximum eigenvalue and the corresponding eigenvector of the pair comparison matrix, and normalizing to obtain a subjective weighted value alphajCarrying out consistency check on the obtained weight values;
s4: standardizing the data of each index, solving the information entropy of each index, and determining the objective weight value beta of each index according to the information entropyj;
S5: integrating the subjective weight and the objective weight of each index by adopting a linear weighting combination method to obtain a final evaluation weight value;
s6: and establishing a fuzzy relation matrix by using the selected membership function according to the evaluation result of the expert on each secondary index, and acquiring a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result through the final weight value and the fuzzy relation matrix so as to determine the evaluation result of the state of the substation equipment.
2. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation according to claim 1, wherein in the step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the transformer comprise an electrical test characteristic index, an index of dissolved gas in oil, an insulating oil characteristic index and other factor indexes; wherein the electrical test characteristic indexes comprise secondary indexes including insulation resistance, absorption ratio, leakage current and dielectric loss value; the second level indicator included in the indicator of dissolved gas in oil is H2Volume fraction, C2H2Volume fraction, total hydrocarbon relative gas production rate, CO relative gas production rate; the secondary indexes contained in the insulating oil characteristic indexes comprise dielectric loss of oil, micro-water mass fraction in the oil and breakdown voltage; the secondary indexes contained in the indexes of other factors comprise a capacity-load ratio, a load rate, environmental factors and maintenance records.
3. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation according to claim 2, wherein in the step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the circuit breaker include an on-off wear index, an operation parameter index, an insulation medium index and other factor indexes; wherein, the second level indexes contained in the on-off abrasion indexes comprise abrasion degree, on-off times and service years; the secondary indexes contained in the operation parameter indexes have time parameters, speed parameters and conductive loop resistance; the secondary indexes contained in the indexes of the insulating medium comprise gas pressure, micro-water content and mineral oil content; the secondary indexes contained in the indexes of other factors comprise working environment, appearance condition, maintenance record and manufacturers.
4. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation as claimed in claim 3, wherein in step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the isolating switch comprise the opening and closing degree, the conductance element, the transmission component, the porcelain bottle and the secondary element fault condition.
5. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation as claimed in claim 4, wherein in the step S1, the primary indexes corresponding to the transformers comprise the relative content of H2, the relative content of CH4, the relative content of C2H2, the relative content of C2H4 and the relative content of C2H 6.
6. The method for assessing the state of a substation equipment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation according to claim 5, wherein in step S4, the index data is normalized for given k primary indexes X1,X2,…,XkWherein X isi={x1,x2,…xn};
The calculation formula for solving the information entropy of each index isWherein,if p isijWhen 0, then
7. The method for evaluating the state of a substation device based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation according to claim 6, wherein in step S5, the linear weighted combination method is used to obtain the comprehensive weight W of the indexjIs represented by the formula Wj=δαj+(1-δ)βjIn which α isjIs the weight, beta, calculated by an analytic hierarchy processjThe weight is obtained by calculating an entropy weight method, and delta is a preference coefficient of the main weight and the objective weight of each evaluation index.
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein in step S6, the step of establishing the fuzzy relation matrix using the membership function is a membership function formed by combining a half trapezoid and a triangle, and the selected membership function is a membership function of a half trapezoid and a triangle, and the function is:
x is the actual value of the score of each index.
9. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation as claimed in claim 8, wherein in the step S6, the membership function is usedThe weight assignment B of each index to the evaluation level V is determined as (B)1,b2,b3,b4);
When b is1=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in a normal state, the equipment can normally run when the running state value of the equipment is within a specified value;
when b is2=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in the attention state, the running state value of the equipment tends to be close to a specified value, and monitoring measures should be taken on the equipment;
when b is3=max{b1,b2,b3,b4When the current transformer substation is in an abnormal state, the running state value W of the equipment is close to or exceeds a specified value, and maintenance work is required to be arranged if necessary;
when b is4=max{b1,b2,b3,b4And when the substation is in a serious state, the running state value of the equipment seriously exceeds a specified value, and maintenance personnel are required to be arranged for overhauling as soon as possible.
10. The method for evaluating the state of the substation equipment based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation according to claim 9, wherein in step S6, the evaluation result is converted into a score for analysis:
let the comment set V be { normal, note, abnormal, severe } {100, 70, 40, 0}, then the score of each index is:
u1=b11*100+b12*70+b13*40+b14*0
u2=b21*100+b22*70+b23*40+b24*0
u3=b31*100+b32*70+b33*40+b34*0
u4=b41*100+b42*70+b43*40+b44*0
U=b1*100+b2*70+b3*40+b4*0
and providing an effective maintenance plan for maintenance of the substation equipment according to the calculated U value and the evaluation result of the corresponding equipment, and determining the actual operation state of the substation according to the final evaluation result.
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