CN112232985A - Power distribution and utilization data monitoring method and device for ubiquitous power Internet of things - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power distribution and utilization data monitoring method, which comprises the following steps: performing time sequence characteristic construction on the training sample and the test sample, and dividing the training sample into a training set and a verification set; obtaining an optimized LightGBM model and an optimized XGboost model; respectively inputting the test samples into the two optimized models for 5-fold cross validation to obtain new characteristics n1And n2(ii) a N is to be1And n2Respectively merging the training sets to the last column of the training set to obtain a new training set; repeating the step of obtaining the optimized LightGBM model and the step of obtaining the optimized XGboost model; test sample and feature n1Test sample and feature n2Respectively inputting the results into new optimized LightGBM and XGboost models, performing 5-fold cross validation, and fusing the obtained results to obtain a prediction result; the invention passes through the machineThe device model predicts the electricity consumption at the moment to be predicted and provides support for the optimal scheduling of power distribution and utilization.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of communication, and particularly relates to a power distribution and utilization data monitoring method and device for a ubiquitous power Internet of things.
Background
The ubiquitous power internet of things is increasingly concerned by technicians in the world, is a connection network between people, people and objects and between objects in the power field, and extends and expands information exchange user sides. As an important application of the ubiquitous power internet of things, a monitoring system occupies an increasingly important position in power production practice, and the problems of the conventional power monitoring system are generally concentrated on the small number of connectable monitoring points, single type of monitoring data, lack of a data processing function, no instant warning function and the like.
With the arrival of the world of everything interconnection, the data transmission quantity of the ubiquitous power internet of things will be increased in a blowout mode in the future, and the requirements of large-scale, multi-dimensional and intelligentization of monitoring points of the ubiquitous power internet of things monitoring system are more and more urgent. The ubiquitous power internet of things has the characteristics of a large number of connecting nodes, wide distribution of monitoring points and a large number of collected data types in order to realize ubiquitous internet of things. How to realize the warning function of the monitoring data of the mass sensor is a key problem for solving the ubiquitous power internet of things deployment in the future.
Therefore, based on the problems, the power distribution and utilization data monitoring method and device for the ubiquitous power internet of things are provided, the power consumption at the moment to be predicted is predicted through the machine model, warning information is sent according to the analysis result, and support is provided for power distribution and utilization optimization scheduling.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a power distribution and utilization data monitoring method and device for a ubiquitous power internet of things, which are used for predicting power consumption at a time to be predicted through a machine model, sending warning information according to an analysis result and providing support for optimal scheduling of power distribution and utilization.
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
a power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for a ubiquitous power Internet of things comprises the following steps:
respectively acquiring historical electricity consumption data before the electricity consumption time to be predicted and relevant data of the electricity consumption time to be predicted, and screening the data to respectively obtain a training sample and a test sample;
respectively carrying out time sequence characteristic construction on the training sample and the test sample, and dividing the training sample into a training set and a verification set;
obtaining an optimized LightGBM model: using the model LightGBM to predict a verification set, and searching an optimal parameter combination through a grid search method to obtain an optimized LightGBM model;
obtaining an optimized XGboost model: predicting a verification set by using the model XGboost, and searching an optimal parameter combination by using a grid search method to obtain an optimized XGboost _1 model;
respectively inputting the test samples into two optimal models LightGBM _1 and XGboost _1 to perform 5-fold cross validation to respectively obtain two new features n1And n2；
Two new features n1And n2Respectively merging the training sets to the last column of the training set to respectively obtain new training sets; repeating the step of obtaining the optimized LightGBM model and the step of obtaining the optimized XGboost model to obtain a new optimized LightGBM model and an XGboost model;
test sample and feature n1Test sample and feature n2Inputting the new optimized LightGBM model and XGboost model respectively, and performing 5-fold cross validation again to obtain two types of output results respectively; fusing the two types of output results according to a set proportion to obtain a prediction result of the power consumption at the moment to be predicted;
and comparing the prediction result with the early warning threshold value, and determining whether warning information is sent out or not according to the comparison result.
Further, the method for performing time sequence feature construction on the training sample comprises the following steps:
converting the time of the historical electricity consumption data of the training sample into a timestamp, wherein the timestamp is a class of characteristics;
acquiring historical electricity consumption at a plurality of moments before each historical electricity consumption moment as a second type of characteristic;
and performing difference on the obtained second type of characteristics: and respectively carrying out difference on the first second-class characteristic and the rest second-class characteristics of each historical power consumption in the training sample to obtain a third-class characteristic.
Further, the method for performing time sequence feature construction on the test sample comprises the following steps:
converting the time of the moment to be predicted into a timestamp which is a type of characteristic;
acquiring historical electricity consumption at a plurality of moments before the moment to be predicted as a second type of characteristic;
and performing difference on the obtained second type of characteristics: and respectively carrying out difference on the first second type characteristic and the rest second type characteristics of the electricity consumption at the moment to be predicted in the test sample to obtain a third type characteristic.
Further, when the optimized LightGBM model or the optimized LightGBM model is obtained by a grid search method, all set parameter combinations are input, the variable state is controlled in the search process, only one parameter is modified each time, and finally, the parameter combination which enables the mean square error to be minimum is output.
Further, when the prediction result is larger than the maximum value of the normal power distribution range, sending out the alarm information of the impending overload power utilization; and when the prediction result is smaller than the minimum value of the normal power distribution range, sending out the alarm information of the impending large-scale power failure.
A power distribution and utilization data monitoring devices for ubiquitous electric power thing networking includes:
the training sample and test sample acquisition module is used for respectively acquiring historical electricity consumption data before the electricity consumption time to be predicted and relevant data of the electricity consumption time to be predicted, and performing data screening to respectively obtain a training sample and a test sample;
the time sequence characteristic construction module is used for respectively carrying out time sequence characteristic construction on the training sample and the test sample and dividing the training sample into a training set and a verification set;
the optimized LightGBM model obtaining module is used for using the model LightGBM prediction verification set and searching the optimal parameter combination through a grid search method to obtain an optimized LightGBM model;
the optimized XGboost model acquisition module is used for predicting a verification set by using a model XGboost and searching an optimal parameter combination by a grid search method to obtain an optimized XGboost _1 model;
a new feature obtaining module, configured to input the test samples into two optimal models LightGBM _1 and XGBoost _1 respectively to perform 5-fold cross validation, so as to obtain two new features n1And n2；
A LightGBM model and XGboost model secondary optimization module for optimizing two new characteristics n1And n2Respectively merging the training sets to the last column of the training set to respectively obtain new training sets; repeating the step of obtaining the optimized LightGBM model and the step of obtaining the optimized XGboost model to obtain a new optimized LightGBM model and an XGboost model;
a power consumption prediction module for predicting the power consumption of the test sample and the characteristic n1Test sample and feature n2Inputting the new optimized LightGBM model and XGboost model respectively, and performing 5-fold cross validation again to obtain two types of output results respectively; fusing the two types of output results according to a set proportion to obtain a prediction result of the power consumption at the moment to be predicted;
and the prediction result comparison module is used for comparing the prediction result with the early warning threshold value and determining whether to send out warning information or not according to the comparison result.
The invention has the advantages and positive effects that:
the method respectively applies machine learning models XGBost and LightGBM to predict the power consumption of users, carries out alarm prediction according to a normal power distribution range, sends out alarm information according to an analysis result, and provides support for optimal scheduling of power distribution and utilization; by comparing and analyzing the prediction results under different data set training, the XGBost and LightGBM models are superior to the traditional GBDT model, and the prediction model and the analysis results have certain guiding significance.
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The technical solutions of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, but it should be understood that these drawings are designed for illustrative purposes only and thus do not limit the scope of the present invention. Furthermore, unless otherwise indicated, the drawings are intended to be illustrative of the structural configurations described herein and are not necessarily drawn to scale.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for a ubiquitous power internet of things, provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a graph comparing the electricity consumption of a cell and the actual electricity consumption by using the electricity distribution and utilization data monitoring method provided in the embodiment of the present invention;
Detailed Description
First, it should be noted that the specific structures, features, advantages, etc. of the present invention will be specifically described below by way of example, but all the descriptions are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as limiting the present invention in any way. Furthermore, any single feature described or implicit in any embodiment or any single feature shown or implicit in any drawing may still be combined or subtracted between any of the features (or equivalents thereof) to obtain still further embodiments of the invention that may not be directly mentioned herein.
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments in the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
This embodiment specifically describes the present invention with reference to fig. 1 and 2:
in this embodiment, the provided scenarios are: now 9 months, 24 days, 15 pm: 30, need to predict 16 pm on 24 days of 9 months: 00, the specific steps are as follows:
acquiring historical electricity consumption data from a fusion terminal, wherein the historical electricity consumption data of 30 minutes from 10 am at 1 month and 1 day to 9 months and 24 days at 15 am at 9 months before the electricity consumption moment to be predicted is acquired, and abnormal missing data and a plurality of data sets are reasonably preprocessed (the specific measures comprise adopting an average value to carry out simulation replacement on the missing data, adopting variance to carry out effectiveness analysis on the plurality of data sets by comparison and the like), and the abnormal missing data and the plurality of data sets are used as training samples (TrainData);
in addition, related data of the power consumption moment to be predicted are obtained, data screening is carried out, reasonable preprocessing is carried out on abnormal missing data and a plurality of data sets (the specific measures comprise that the missing data is subjected to analog replacement by adopting an average value, effectiveness analysis is carried out on a plurality of data sets through comparison by adopting variance and the like), so that a test sample is obtained, and the initial format of the test sample (TestData) can be defined according to the actual situation;
respectively carrying out characteristic construction on TrainData and TestData, wherein 'historical electricity consumption' in the table 1 represents the current electricity consumption at the historical moment; "timestamp" represents timestamp data converted from "time"; "historical electricity consumption _ 1" is the electricity consumption half an hour before the current moment; the historical electricity consumption _2 is the electricity consumption at the previous hour, and the historical electricity consumption _10 can be sequentially obtained as the electricity consumption at the previous five hours; the "historical electricity consumption _ difference 1" is a difference value obtained by subtracting the "historical electricity consumption _ 2" from the "historical electricity consumption _ 1", and so on, and the "historical electricity consumption _ difference 9" is a difference value obtained by subtracting the "historical electricity consumption _ 10" from the "historical electricity consumption _ 1".
The characteristic constructed TrainData is shown in Table 1:
TABLE 1
The characteristic-structured TestData is shown in table 2 (note: 16: 00 points in the table are future time of electricity consumption to be predicted, 15: 30 is current time, and the historical electricity consumption _1 in the table is electricity consumption at the current time 15: 30):
TABLE 2
Next, we segment the training sample TrainData into a training set Train and a validation set Val; considering that the amount of data used in training a model is large, in order to allow the model to perform sufficient learning and prevent the model from being over-fitted, we follow 2: the proportion of 1 divides the TrainData. The method comprises the following specific steps:
the training set Train is the data of the front 2/3 of the training sample TrainData (TrainData line 1 to line 8520), and the verification set Val is the data of the rear 1/3 of the training sample TrainData (TrainData line 8521 to line 12780).
A grid search method is adopted, all set parameter combinations are input, the variable state is controlled in the search process, only one parameter is modified each time, and finally the parameter combination which enables the error function (mean square error rmse) to be minimum is output. And finally, after traversing all parameter combinations, saving the parameter combination with the minimum error as the optimal model LightGBM _1 or XGboost _ 1.
Inputting test data into an XGboost _1 model and a LightGBM _1 model for 5-fold cross validation respectively to obtain an output result characteristic n1And feature n2The five-fold cross validation process is as follows:
the k-fold is to divide the data set into k groups, extract one of k data as a verification set from the training set every time, and take the rest data as a test set. The test results were averaged over the k sets of data. If the training set is larger, k is smaller, the training cost is reduced, and if the training set is smaller, k is larger, and the training data is increased. If k is 10, 90% of the data is trained. Through multiple times of analysis and verification, the analysis effect on the electricity consumption data is the best in 5-fold verification, and the efficiency is the highest. On the basis, the test set and the verification set are mixed in the crossing process, the verification set and the test set form complementary sets mutually, and the cycle is alternated. We use 5-fold cross-validation for model tuning, i.e. if all data is used for training, this will result in overfitting, which 5-fold cross-validation can mitigate.
The 5-fold cross validation is to divide the data set into 5 parts according to a certain proportion (equal proportion or non-equal proportion), take one part as test data, and take the other 4 parts as training data. And then repeating the experiment, wherein the 5-fold cross validation completes one complete experiment only after 5 times of the experiment, namely the cross validation actually repeats the experiment 5 times, each experiment selects one different data part from the 5 parts as test data, the remaining 4 data parts are used as training data, and finally, the obtained 5 experiment results are divided equally.
Will be characterized byn1Merging the training data into the last column of TrainData to obtain TrainData _1, using the TrainData _1 as a new training set, and repeating the model optimizing step to obtain an optimal model LightGBM _ 2; will be characteristic n2Merging the training data into the last column of TrainData to obtain TrainData _2, using the TrainData _2 as a new training set, repeating the model optimizing step to obtain an optimal model XGboost _ 2;
test sample TestData and characteristic n1Input into LightGBM _2 model, test sample TestData and feature n2And inputting the XGboost _2 model, respectively performing 5-fold cross validation to obtain an output result _1 and an output result _2, and finally weighting the output result _1 and the output result _2 to obtain the output predicted power consumption.
For example, in this embodiment, the predicted cell power consumption and the actual power consumption change trend are substantially the same by using the method of this embodiment, and the accuracy is high. And when the power consumption is higher than the overload power consumption threshold value of the cell, the automatic reporting system provides support for the optimal scheduling of power distribution and utilization, so that the operation reliability of the power grid is improved.
The present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above examples, but the description is only for the preferred examples of the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. All equivalent changes and modifications made within the scope of the present invention shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for a ubiquitous power Internet of things is characterized by comprising the following steps:
respectively acquiring historical electricity consumption data before the electricity consumption time to be predicted and relevant data of the electricity consumption time to be predicted, and screening the data to respectively obtain a training sample and a test sample;
respectively carrying out time sequence characteristic construction on the training sample and the test sample, and dividing the training sample into a training set and a verification set;
obtaining an optimized LightGBM model: using the model LightGBM to predict a verification set, and searching an optimal parameter combination through a grid search method to obtain an optimized LightGBM model;
obtaining an optimized XGboost model: predicting a verification set by using the model XGboost, and searching an optimal parameter combination by using a grid search method to obtain an optimized XGboost _1 model;
respectively inputting the test samples into two optimal models LightGBM _1 and XGboost _1 to perform 5-fold cross validation to respectively obtain two new features n1And n2；
Two new features n1And n2Respectively merging the training sets to the last column of the training set to respectively obtain new training sets; repeating the step of obtaining the optimized LightGBM model and the step of obtaining the optimized XGboost model to obtain a new optimized LightGBM model and an XGboost model;
test sample and feature n1Test sample and feature n2Inputting the new optimized LightGBM model and XGboost model respectively, and performing 5-fold cross validation again to obtain two types of output results respectively; fusing the two types of output results according to a set proportion to obtain a prediction result of the power consumption at the moment to be predicted;
and comparing the prediction result with the early warning threshold value, and determining whether warning information is sent out or not according to the comparison result.
2. The power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for the ubiquitous power internet of things according to claim 1, wherein: the method for constructing the timing characteristic of the training sample comprises the following steps:
converting the time of the historical electricity consumption data of the training sample into a timestamp, wherein the timestamp is a class of characteristics;
acquiring historical electricity consumption at a plurality of moments before each historical electricity consumption moment as a second type of characteristic;
and performing difference on the obtained second type of characteristics: and respectively carrying out difference on the first second-class characteristic and the rest second-class characteristics of each historical power consumption in the training sample to obtain a third-class characteristic.
3. The power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for the ubiquitous power internet of things according to claim 1, wherein: the method for constructing the time sequence characteristics of the test sample comprises the following steps:
converting the time of the moment to be predicted into a timestamp which is a type of characteristic;
acquiring historical electricity consumption at a plurality of moments before the moment to be predicted as a second type of characteristic;
and performing difference on the obtained second type of characteristics: and respectively carrying out difference on the first second type characteristic and the rest second type characteristics of the electricity consumption at the moment to be predicted in the test sample to obtain a third type characteristic.
4. The power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for the ubiquitous power internet of things according to claim 1, wherein: when the optimized LightGBM model or the optimized LightGBM model is obtained through a grid search method, all set parameter combinations are input, the variable state is controlled in the search process, only one parameter is modified each time, and finally the parameter combination enabling the mean square error to be minimum is output.
5. The power distribution and utilization data monitoring method for the ubiquitous power internet of things according to claim 1, wherein: when the prediction result is larger than the maximum value of the normal power distribution range, sending out the information of about overload power utilization; and when the prediction result is smaller than the minimum value of the normal power distribution range, sending out the alarm information of the impending large-scale power failure.
6. A power distribution and utilization data monitoring devices for ubiquitous electric power thing networking, its characterized in that: the method comprises the following steps:
the training sample and test sample acquisition module is used for respectively acquiring historical electricity consumption data before the electricity consumption time to be predicted and relevant data of the electricity consumption time to be predicted, and performing data screening to respectively obtain a training sample and a test sample;
the time sequence characteristic construction module is used for respectively carrying out time sequence characteristic construction on the training sample and the test sample and dividing the training sample into a training set and a verification set;
the optimized LightGBM model obtaining module is used for using the model LightGBM prediction verification set and searching the optimal parameter combination through a grid search method to obtain an optimized LightGBM model;
the optimized XGboost model acquisition module is used for predicting a verification set by using a model XGboost and searching an optimal parameter combination by a grid search method to obtain an optimized XGboost _1 model;
a new feature obtaining module, configured to input the test samples into two optimal models LightGBM _1 and XGBoost _1 respectively to perform 5-fold cross validation, so as to obtain two new features n1And n2；
A LightGBM model and XGboost model secondary optimization module for optimizing two new characteristics n1And n2Respectively merging the training sets to the last column of the training set to respectively obtain new training sets; repeating the step of obtaining the optimized LightGBM model and the step of obtaining the optimized XGboost model to obtain a new optimized LightGBM model and an XGboost model;
a power consumption prediction module for predicting the power consumption of the test sample and the characteristic n1Test sample and feature n2Inputting the new optimized LightGBM model and XGboost model respectively, and performing 5-fold cross validation again to obtain two types of output results respectively; fusing the two types of output results according to a set proportion to obtain a prediction result of the power consumption at the moment to be predicted;
and the prediction result comparison module is used for comparing the prediction result with the early warning threshold value and determining whether to send out warning information or not according to the comparison result.
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