CN112132432A - Comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetland - Google Patents

Comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetland Download PDF

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CN112132432A
CN112132432A CN202010964701.2A CN202010964701A CN112132432A CN 112132432 A CN112132432 A CN 112132432A CN 202010964701 A CN202010964701 A CN 202010964701A CN 112132432 A CN112132432 A CN 112132432A
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崔正国
白莹
崔鸿武
胡清静
曲克明
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Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences
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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of a coastal wetland, which comprises the following steps of S1: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system; s2: determining each evaluation index weight of the index system by using a CRITIC weighting method; s3: and comprehensively evaluating and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of different coastal wetlands by adopting a TOPSIS method. The method can comprehensively and scientifically reflect the potential ecological risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland, and provides technical support for the protection and management of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland.

Description

Comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetland
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of wetland ecological environment protection, and particularly relates to a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive evaluation method.
Background
The ecological vulnerability is the changeability of the ecological environment in a specific space area under the driving of natural or human activities, and the change is usually developed in the direction which is not beneficial to the survival, development and utilization of human beings, and corresponds to the stability of the ecological environment. The potential uncertainty presented by the ecological vulnerability can cause effects on the ecosystem and the components thereof, and the results of the effects can cause damage to the structure and the functions of the ecosystem, thereby endangering the safety and the health of the ecosystem, so the coastal wetland ecological vulnerability monitoring and evaluation is the basis for researching, developing and continuously utilizing the coastal wetland.
At present, the existing ecological vulnerability evaluation methods mainly comprise a comprehensive index method, a function model method, a layer stacking method, a scene analysis method, system dynamics and the like, but lack the system analysis of human activity influence. So far, a set of generally accepted and universal evaluation method is not formed in China, and evaluation index systems are different; and the research on the ecological vulnerability of coastal wetlands and islands is less.
In conclusion, in order to solve the problem of lack of the coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk assessment system and method, it is particularly necessary to design a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment method.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetlands. The method comprehensively considers potential risks caused by ecological vulnerability caused by multiple human activities such as land source pollution, large-scale sea reclamation, large-scale mariculture and the like, establishes a set of comprehensive evaluation system on the basis of three different levels of the aquatic system health potential risk, the environmental quality potential risk and the human activity influence potential risk, finishes evaluation by using a CRITIC empowerment method and a TOPSIS method in sequence, ensures the objectivity and rationality of evaluation results, and can provide data support for preventing and controlling the ecological risks of the coastal wetland system.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
according to the first aspect of the embodiment of the invention, a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland is provided.
In some optional embodiments, the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland comprises the following steps:
step S1: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system;
step S2: determining each evaluation index weight of the index system by using a CRITIC weighting method;
step S3: and comprehensively evaluating and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of different coastal wetlands by adopting a TOPSIS method.
Optionally, the step S1: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system based on aquatic organism system health potential risk, water environment quality potential risk and human activity influence potential risk;
the aquatic system health potential risk assessment indicators include: Shannon-Weaver biodiversity index, characteristic biological resource density, endangered rare organism type, endangered rare organism number, general protective organism type, general protective organism number, biological invasion type and biological invasion number;
the potential risk assessment indexes of the water environment quality comprise: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content, benzene hexachloride content, bis-p-chlorophenyl trichloroethane content, polychlorinated biphenyl content, vibrio number, escherichia coli number, faecal coliform number, total bacteria number, copper content, zinc content, lead content, cadmium content, mercury content, arsenic content, chromium content, paralytic shellfish poisoning content and diarrheic shellfish poisoning content;
the human activity impact potential risk assessment indicators include: the method comprises the following steps of reducing the shoreline of the wetland, reducing the area of the wetland, inputting land source pollution, inputting seawater pollution, inputting atmospheric pollution, permanently occupying the area proportion of a water area, increasing the diffusion influence area proportion of pollutants, increasing the fishing boat increment rate in the coastal region, increasing the fishing yield in the coastal region, increasing the environment capacity and achieving the scientific research value of entertainment culture.
Optionally, the step S2 includes the following sub-steps:
step S2.1: respectively carrying out normalization treatment on each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland;
step S2.2: obtaining a correlation coefficient for each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland by utilizing a normalization processing result to obtain an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
step S2.3: and calculating the objective weight of each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix.
Optionally, the step S2.1 includes:
the normalization method adopted by the forward direction index is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000031
the normalization method adopted by the reverse indexes is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000032
wherein j represents the serial number of the evaluation index, i represents the serial number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, n represents the number of the seaside wetlands to be evaluated, and xi'jThe measured value, x, of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation indexijIs xi'jAnd (5) normalizing the result.
Optionally, the step S2.2 includes:
obtaining a correlation coefficient for each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland by utilizing a normalization processing result to obtain an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
wherein, the correlation coefficient r of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation indexjkThe calculation is made by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002681812330000033
n is the number of coastal wetland samples to be evaluated, xijAnd xikRespectively representing normalized values of the ith coastal wetland sample on the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index,
Figure BDA0002681812330000034
and
Figure BDA0002681812330000035
respectively representing the normalized average values of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index, namely:
Figure BDA0002681812330000036
Figure BDA0002681812330000037
optionally, the step S2.3 includes:
step S2.3.1: calculating the contrast strength CI among the evaluation indexes and the conflict strength CT of the evaluation indexes according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
CI of contrast strength among indexes of jth evaluation indexjConflict intensity CT of evaluation indexjThe calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000041
Figure BDA0002681812330000042
wherein j and k represent the serial number of the evaluation index, i represents the serial number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, n represents the number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, p represents the number of the evaluation index, and xijRepresenting the normalized value of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation index, rjkA correlation coefficient representing the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index,
Figure BDA0002681812330000043
the average value after the j evaluation index normalization is obtained;
step S2.3.2: calculating the information quantity G of the evaluation indexes based on the contrast strength CI among the evaluation indexes and the conflict strength CT of the evaluation indexes;
information amount G of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Gj＝CTj×CIj
step S2.3.3: calculating objective weight based on the information quantity of each evaluation index;
objective weight w of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000044
optionally, the step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
step S3.1: the results of the normalization of the evaluation indices from step S2.1 are obtained using the following formula
Figure BDA0002681812330000045
Carrying out normalization processing to obtain a normalized matrix
Figure BDA0002681812330000046
Namely, it is
Figure BDA0002681812330000047
I is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n, j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to p, and p represents the number of evaluation indexes;
step S3.2: determining an optimal solution Z+And the worst case Z-Wherein Z is+Composed of the maximum standard value of each evaluation index in Z, Z-The minimum standard value of each index in Z is as follows:
Z+＝(max{z11,z21,…,zn1},max{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,max{z1p,z2p,…,znp})，
Z-＝(min{z11,z21,…,zn1},min{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,min{z1p,z2p,…,znp})；
step S3.3: determining the closeness degree D of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme by combining the objective weight obtained in the step S2.3+Proximity D to the worst case-；
The closeness degree of the ith coastal wetland sample to the optimal scheme
Figure BDA0002681812330000051
Proximity to worst case scenario
Figure BDA0002681812330000052
The calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000053
Figure BDA0002681812330000054
wherein
Figure BDA0002681812330000055
Respectively represents Z+、Z-The jth value of (d);
step S3.4: calculating the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme;
the calculation formula of the closeness degree C of the ith coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000056
step S3.5: and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland according to the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme.
According to a second aspect of embodiments of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device.
In some optional embodiments, an electronic device comprises:
at least one processor; and
a memory communicatively coupled to the at least one processor; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, which when executed by the at least one processor, cause the at least one processor to perform the method of any of the above-described alternative embodiments.
According to a second aspect of embodiments of the present invention, there is provided a computer-readable storage medium.
In some alternative embodiments, a computer-readable storage medium stores computer-executable instructions configured to perform the method of any of the alternative embodiments described above.
According to a third aspect of embodiments of the present invention, a computer program product is provided.
In some alternative embodiments, the computer program product comprises a computer program stored on a computer readable storage medium, the computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform the method of any of the alternative embodiments described above.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
(1) the potential risks caused by ecological vulnerability caused by multiple human activities such as land source pollution, large-scale sea reclamation, large-scale marine culture and the like are comprehensively considered, a set of comprehensive evaluation system is built on the basis of three different levels of the aquatic system health potential risk, the environment quality potential risk and the human activity influence potential risk, and meanwhile, evaluation indexes can be quantized and are convenient for relevant personnel to obtain, and the comprehensive evaluation system has strong operability;
(2) according to the method, the CRITIC weighting method is adopted to calculate the objective weight of each level of index, the TOPSIS method is adopted to evaluate the potential risk of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland, no expert intervention is needed in the whole process, and the evaluation result is more scientific and objective.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of a coastal wetland, provided by the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of a coastal wetland provided by the invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an electronic device provided in the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the embodiments described below are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the embodiment provides a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of a coastal wetland, comprising the following steps:
s1: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system;
s2: determining each evaluation index weight of the index system by using a CRITIC weighting method;
s3: and comprehensively evaluating and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of different coastal wetlands by adopting a TOPSIS method (approaching to an ideal solution sequencing method).
In step S1, a comprehensive evaluation index system for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland is established based on three layers, including: potential risks of aquatic system health, potential risks of water environment quality and potential risks of human activity influence.
The potential risk assessment indexes of the health of the aquatic organism system comprise: Shannon-Weaver biodiversity index, characteristic biological resource density, endangered rare organism species, endangered rare organism number, general protective organism species, general protective organism number, biological invasion species, biological invasion number.
The potential risk assessment indexes of the water environment quality comprise: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content, benzene hexachloride content, bis-p-chlorophenyl trichloroethane content, polychlorinated biphenyl content, vibrio number, escherichia coli number, faecal coliform number, total bacteria number, copper content, zinc content, lead content, cadmium content, mercury content, arsenic content, chromium content, paralytic shellfish poisoning content and diarrhetic shellfish poisoning content.
Human activity impacts potential risk assessment indicators including: the wetland shoreline reduction rate, the wetland area reduction rate, the land source pollution input quantity, the seawater pollution input quantity, the atmospheric pollution input quantity, the permanent occupied water area proportion, the pollutant diffusion influence area proportion, the increase rate of fishing boats in the coastal region, the increase rate of fishing yield in the coastal region, the environmental capacity and the entertainment culture scientific research value;
the evaluation indexes of the potential risks of the health of the aquatic organism system, the potential risk evaluation indexes of the water environment quality and the potential risk evaluation indexes of the human activity influence jointly form a comprehensive evaluation index system of the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland. Table 1 shows the values of different coastal wetland samples under the comprehensive evaluation index system:
TABLE 1
Figure BDA0002681812330000071
Figure BDA0002681812330000081
Figure BDA0002681812330000091
Referring to fig. 2, the embodiment provides a comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland, which combines the different coastal wetland sample data in table 1.
Wherein step S2 includes the following sub-steps:
s2.1: respectively carrying out normalization treatment on each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland;
the influence directions of different evaluation indexes on the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland are different, the larger the evaluation indexes are, the larger the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland are, and the reverse is true. Therefore, it is necessary to normalize the evaluation index data to realize the evaluation index homologation. The normalization method adopted by the forward direction index is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000092
the normalization method adopted for the reverse indexes is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000093
wherein j represents the serial number of the evaluation index, i represents the serial number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, n represents the number of the seaside wetlands to be evaluated, p represents the number of the evaluation index, and xi'jThe measured value, x, of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation indexijIs xi'jAnd (5) normalizing the result.
The results of the normalization of the sample data of different coastal wetlands shown in table 1 are shown in table 2 below:
TABLE 2
Figure BDA0002681812330000094
Figure BDA0002681812330000101
Figure BDA0002681812330000111
S2.2: obtaining a correlation coefficient for each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland by utilizing a normalization processing result to obtain an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
wherein the correlation coefficient r of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation indexjkThe calculation is made by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002681812330000112
n is the number of coastal wetland samples to be evaluated, xijAnd xikRespectively representing normalized values of the ith coastal wetland sample on the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index,
Figure BDA0002681812330000113
and
Figure BDA0002681812330000114
respectively representing the normalized average values of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index, namely:
Figure BDA0002681812330000115
Figure BDA0002681812330000116
based on this, the correlation coefficients between the evaluation indexes can be calculated as shown in the following table 3:
TABLE 3
Figure BDA0002681812330000117
Figure BDA0002681812330000121
Based on the above, an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix R can be obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000122
s2.3: calculating the objective weight of each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix, which comprises the following specific steps:
s2.3.1: and calculating the contrast intensity CI among the evaluation indexes and the conflict intensity CT of the evaluation indexes according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix.
CI of contrast strength among indexes of jth evaluation indexjConflict intensity CT of evaluation indexjThe calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000123
Figure BDA0002681812330000124
wherein n represents the number of the coastal wetlands to be evaluated, p represents the number of the evaluation indexes, and xijThe normalized value of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation index is shown,rjka correlation coefficient representing the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index,
Figure BDA0002681812330000125
the normalized average value of the j-th evaluation index.
S2.3.2: the information amount G of the index is calculated based on the contrast intensity CI between the indexes and the conflict intensity CT of the indexes.
Information amount G of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Gj＝CTj×CIj
s2.3.3: objective weights are calculated based on the magnitude of the information amount of each evaluation index.
Objective weight w of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000126
therefore, the contrast strength, the conflict strength, the information amount, and the weight of each evaluation index are shown in table 4 below:
TABLE 4
Figure BDA0002681812330000131
Figure BDA0002681812330000141
Step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
s3.1: the results of the normalization of the evaluation indices from step S2.1 are obtained using the following formula
Figure BDA0002681812330000142
Carrying out normalization processing to obtain a normalized matrix
Figure BDA0002681812330000143
Namely, it is
Figure BDA0002681812330000144
The results after normalization of the data of table 2 are shown in table 5 below:
TABLE 5
Figure BDA0002681812330000145
Figure BDA0002681812330000151
Figure BDA0002681812330000161
Step S3.2: determining an optimal solution Z+And the worst case Z-Wherein Z is+Composed of the maximum standard value of each evaluation index in Z, Z-The minimum standard value of each index in Z is as follows:
Z+＝(max{z11,z21,…,zn1},max{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,max{z1p,z2p,…,znp})，
Z-＝(min{z11,z21,…,zn1},min{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,min{z1p,z2p,…,znp})。
step S3.3: determining the closeness degree D of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme by combining the objective weight obtained in the step S2.3+Proximity D to the worst case-；
The closeness degree of the ith coastal wetland sample to the optimal scheme
Figure BDA0002681812330000162
Proximity to worst case scenario
Figure BDA0002681812330000163
The calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000164
Figure BDA0002681812330000165
wherein
Figure BDA0002681812330000166
Respectively represents Z+、Z-The jth value of (a).
S3.4: calculating the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme;
the calculation formula of the closeness degree C of the ith coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme is as follows:
Figure BDA0002681812330000167
the results of the calculations of steps S3.2, S3.3 are shown in table 6 below:
TABLE 6
Figure BDA0002681812330000168
Figure BDA0002681812330000171
Step S3.4: and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland according to the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme.
The results calculated in table 5 are arranged in descending order of potential risks of vulnerability to ecological risks, and the results are shown in table 7:
TABLE 7
D+ D- C
Sample 4 0.022 0.028 0.555
Sample 2 0.023 0.027 0.545
Sample 3 0.024 0.027 0.533
Sample 1 0.023 0.026 0.531
Sample 6 0.025 0.027 0.523
Sample 5 0.026 0.028 0.513
As shown in table 7, the sample 4 represents the coastal wetland with the highest potential risk of ecological vulnerability, and the relevant personnel should enhance the protection work of the coastal wetland to reduce the adverse effects of human activities on the coastal wetland.
The method comprehensively considers potential risks caused by ecological vulnerability caused by multiple human activities such as land source pollution, large-scale sea reclamation, large-scale mariculture and the like, establishes a set of comprehensive evaluation system on the basis of three different levels of the aquatic system health potential risk, the environmental quality potential risk and the human activity influence potential risk, finishes evaluation by using a CRITIC empowerment method and a TOPSIS method in sequence, ensures the objectivity and rationality of evaluation results, and can provide data support for preventing and controlling the ecological risks of the coastal wetland system.
The invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer-executable instructions, wherein the computer-executable instructions are set to execute the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland.
The invention also provides a computer program product comprising a computer program stored on a computer-readable storage medium, the computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to execute the above method for comprehensive assessment of potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetlands.
The computer-readable storage medium described above may be a transitory computer-readable storage medium or a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium.
The present invention also provides an electronic device, the structure of which is shown in fig. 3, the electronic device comprising:
at least one processor (processor)100, one processor 100 being exemplified in fig. 3; and a memory (memory)101, and may further include a Communication Interface (Communication Interface)102 and a bus 103. The processor 100, the communication interface 102, and the memory 101 may communicate with each other via a bus 103. The communication interface 102 may be used for information transfer. The processor 100 can call the logic instructions in the memory 101 to execute the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland according to the above embodiment.
In addition, the logic instructions in the memory 101 may be implemented in the form of software functional units and stored in a computer readable storage medium when the logic instructions are sold or used as independent products.
The memory 101 is a computer-readable storage medium for storing software programs, computer-executable programs, such as program instructions/modules corresponding to the methods of the present invention. The processor 100 executes functional applications and data processing by running software programs, instructions and modules stored in the memory 101, so as to implement the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland in the above method embodiment.
The memory 101 may include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program required for at least one function; the storage data area may store data created according to the use of the terminal device, and the like. In addition, the memory 101 may include a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a nonvolatile memory.
The present invention may be embodied in a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes one or more instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to perform all or part of the steps of the method of the present invention. And the aforementioned storage medium may be a non-transitory storage medium comprising: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes, and may also be a transient storage medium.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles and broad features of the present invention and advantages thereof. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.

Claims (10)

1. A comprehensive evaluation method for potential risks of ecological vulnerability of coastal wetlands is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system;
step S2: determining each evaluation index weight of the index system by using a CRITIC weighting method;
step S3: and comprehensively evaluating and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of different coastal wetlands by adopting a TOPSIS method.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetlands according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 is: establishing a coastal wetland ecological vulnerability potential risk comprehensive assessment index system based on aquatic organism system health potential risk, water environment quality potential risk and human activity influence potential risk;
the aquatic system health potential risk assessment indicators include: Shannon-Weaver biodiversity index, characteristic biological resource density, endangered rare organism type, endangered rare organism number, general protective organism type, general protective organism number, biological invasion type and biological invasion number;
the potential risk assessment indexes of the water environment quality comprise: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content, benzene hexachloride content, bis-p-chlorophenyl trichloroethane content, polychlorinated biphenyl content, vibrio number, escherichia coli number, faecal coliform number, total bacteria number, copper content, zinc content, lead content, cadmium content, mercury content, arsenic content, chromium content, paralytic shellfish poisoning content and diarrheic shellfish poisoning content;
the human activity impact potential risk assessment indicators include: the method comprises the following steps of reducing the shoreline of the wetland, reducing the area of the wetland, inputting land source pollution, inputting seawater pollution, inputting atmospheric pollution, permanently occupying the area proportion of a water area, increasing the diffusion influence area proportion of pollutants, increasing the fishing boat increment rate in the coastal region, increasing the fishing yield in the coastal region, increasing the environment capacity and achieving the scientific research value of entertainment culture.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland of claim 1, wherein the step S2 comprises the following sub-steps:
step S2.1: respectively carrying out normalization treatment on each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland;
step S2.2: obtaining a correlation coefficient for each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland by utilizing a normalization processing result to obtain an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
step S2.3: and calculating the objective weight of each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetlands according to claim 3, wherein the step S2.1 comprises:
the normalization method adopted by the forward direction index is as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000021
the normalization method adopted by the reverse indexes is as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000022
wherein j represents the serial number of the evaluation index, i represents the serial number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, n represents the number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, and x'ijThe measured value, x, of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation indexijIs x'ijAnd (5) normalizing the result.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetlands according to claim 4, wherein the step S2.2 comprises:
obtaining a correlation coefficient for each evaluation index of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the ecological vulnerability potential risk of the coastal wetland by utilizing a normalization processing result to obtain an evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
wherein, the correlation coefficient r of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation indexjkThe calculation is made by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002681812320000023
n is the number of coastal wetlands to be evaluated, xijRepresents the normalized value of the ith coastal wetland sample on the jth evaluation index, xikThe normalized value of the ith coastal wetland sample on the kth evaluation index is shown,
Figure FDA0002681812320000024
and
Figure FDA0002681812320000025
respectively representing the normalized average values of the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index, namely:
Figure FDA0002681812320000026
Figure FDA0002681812320000027
6. the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetlands according to claim 5, wherein the step S2.3 comprises:
step S2.3.1: calculating the contrast strength CI among the evaluation indexes and the conflict strength CT of the evaluation indexes according to the evaluation index correlation coefficient matrix;
CI of contrast strength among indexes of jth evaluation indexjConflict intensity CT of evaluation indexjThe calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000031
Figure FDA0002681812320000032
wherein j and k represent the serial number of the evaluation index, i represents the serial number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, n represents the number of the seaside wetland to be evaluated, p represents the number of the evaluation index, and xijRepresenting the normalized value of the ith coastal wetland to be evaluated on the jth evaluation index, rjkA correlation coefficient representing the jth evaluation index and the kth evaluation index,
Figure FDA0002681812320000033
the average value after the j evaluation index normalization is obtained;
step S2.3.2: calculating the information quantity G of the evaluation indexes based on the contrast strength CI among the evaluation indexes and the conflict strength CT of the evaluation indexes;
information amount G of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Gj＝CTj×CIj
step S2.3.3: calculating objective weight based on the information quantity of each evaluation index;
objective weight w of jth evaluation indexjThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000034
7. the comprehensive evaluation method for the potential risks of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland according to claim 4, wherein the step S3 comprises the following sub-steps:
step S3.1: the results of the normalization of the evaluation indices from step S2.1 are obtained using the following formula
Figure FDA0002681812320000041
Carrying out normalization processing to obtain a normalized matrix
Figure FDA0002681812320000042
Namely, it is
Figure FDA0002681812320000043
I is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to n, j is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to p, and p represents the number of evaluation indexes;
step S3.2: determining an optimal solution Z+And the worst case Z-Wherein Z is+Composed of the maximum standard value of each evaluation index in Z, Z-The minimum standard value of each index in Z is as follows:
Z+＝(max{z11,z21,…,zn1},max{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,max{z1p,z2p,…,znp})，
Z-＝(min{z11,z21,…,zn1},min{z12,z22,…,zn2},…,min{z1p,z2p,…,znp})；
step S3.3: determining each coastal wetland sample by combining the objective weight obtained in the step S2.3Proximity to optimal solution D+Proximity D to the worst case-；
The closeness degree of the ith coastal wetland sample to the optimal scheme
Figure FDA0002681812320000044
Proximity to worst case scenario
Figure FDA0002681812320000045
The calculation formulas of (A) are respectively as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000046
Figure FDA0002681812320000047
wherein
Figure FDA0002681812320000048
Respectively represents Z+、Z-The jth value of (d);
step S3.4: calculating the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme;
the calculation formula of the closeness degree C of the ith coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme is as follows:
Figure FDA0002681812320000049
step S3.5: and sequencing the potential risks of ecological vulnerability of the coastal wetland according to the closeness degree C of each coastal wetland sample and the optimal scheme.
8. An electronic device, comprising:
at least one processor; and
a memory communicatively coupled to the at least one processor; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the memory stores instructions executable by the at least one processor, the instructions, when executed by the at least one processor, causing the at least one processor to perform the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
9. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer-executable instructions configured to perform the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer program product, characterized in that the computer program product comprises a computer program stored on a computer-readable storage medium, the computer program comprising program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to carry out the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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