CN112101761A - Comprehensive evaluation method for construction effect of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system - Google Patents

Comprehensive evaluation method for construction effect of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system Download PDF

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CN112101761A
CN112101761A CN202010920691.2A CN202010920691A CN112101761A CN 112101761 A CN112101761 A CN 112101761A CN 202010920691 A CN202010920691 A CN 202010920691A CN 112101761 A CN112101761 A CN 112101761A
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程婉静
莫东序
李俊杰
王康
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Longyuan Beijing Wind Power Engineering Design and Consultation Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, which comprises the following steps: s1, analyzing the connotation of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system; s2, setting a comprehensive evaluation index system construction principle of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system construction effect; s3, selecting a target layer, a standard layer and an index layer of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system construction effect comprehensive evaluation index system according to the principle; s4, setting index weight by adopting an entropy weight-hierarchical analysis mixed measure method; and S5, calculating a comprehensive evaluation index of the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to the historical data. The invention gives quantitative representation to the relative importance among all indexes by comprehensively considering the subjective opinions of experts and the objective factors of data, so that the weights of all indexes are clear, and the evaluation result has scientificity and rationality.

Description

Comprehensive evaluation method for construction effect of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system
Technical Field
The invention relates to a comprehensive evaluation method, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
Background
At present, decision departments at all levels need to analyze the connotation of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and a set of comprehensive evaluation index system for the construction effect of the energy system is urgently needed to be constructed.
However, the method for evaluating the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system is still in a missing state at present. Most of existing evaluation methods are based on single subjective weight or objective weight for evaluation, subjective opinions of experts and objective factors of data are not comprehensively considered, and relative importance among indexes is not quantitatively expressed, so that the weights of the indexes are unclear, and the evaluation result is lack of scientificity and rationality.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the technology, the invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: the comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system comprises the following steps:
s1: analyzing the connotation of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
s2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
s3: standardizing all indexes;
s4: the method for measuring and calculating the index weight by adopting a mixed measure method comprises the following steps:
step I: measuring weight by using an analytic hierarchy process;
step II: measuring weight by an entropy weight method;
step III: calculating the weight by using an entropy weight-level analysis mixed measure method;
s5: and calculating a comprehensive evaluation index of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to historical data.
Further, S2 finds a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer reflecting construction effects of energy cleanliness, low energy carbon, energy safety and high energy efficiency according to the content and the content read in S1, and definitely obtains a three-level comprehensive evaluation index system of the target layer, the criterion layer and the index layer according to a construction principle;
the target layer is the target to be realized, and comprises low energy, clean energy, safe energy and high energy efficiency which are first-level indexes;
the criterion layer, namely the main aspect contained in each target, is a secondary index;
the index layer, namely, what specific quantized index is used for each criterion is a three-level index.
Further, in order to eliminate the external influence on the evaluation result caused by the dimensional difference existing in the raw data of each index in S3, and make these indexes comparable, it is necessary to forward and normalize the index data, and the normalization calculation method is as shown in formulas (1) and (2):
for the forward indicator:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000021
for the reverse indicator:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000022
wherein i represents the ith year; j represents the jth index; n represents a total of n years; p represents a total of p indices; original index xijAfter the above operation, the index y is standardizedijY is more than or equal to 0ijThe index is less than or equal to 1, and the forward index and the reverse index are converted into the forward index, the optimal value is 1, and the worst value is 0.
Further, in step I, the measuring weight by an analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
firstly, constructing a decision matrix, and definitely giving the relative importance among the lower-layer relevant factors dominated by the upper-layer factors;
secondly, obtaining a judgment matrix after obtaining the scoring results of M total experts, and carrying out consistency check;
then, calculating the weight of each index evaluated by each expert;
and finally, calculating the average weight of each index evaluated by the M experts.
Further, in step I, the consistency index is calculated by formula (3):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000031
wherein, λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, j represents the number of indexes, and CI represents the consistency index; when CI is 0, two judgment matrixes are consistent; the larger the CI value, the greater the degree of inconsistency is indicated; the allowable range of the inconsistency of every two judgment matrixes is judged through an inconsistency ratio, and the inconsistency ratio is calculated through a formula (4) as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000032
wherein, CR represents the inconsistency ratio, and RI is a random consistency index: when CR is less than or equal to 0.1, judging that the matrix meets the requirement of consistency, otherwise, checking and adjusting the scores, thereby eliminating contradictions;
weight alpha of j index evaluated by m expertmjCalculated by equation (5):
αmj＝Cmj×Bmj×Amj (5)，
wherein, CmjIs the weight of the C level corresponding to the j index evaluated by the m expert, BmjIs the weight of B level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert, AmjIs the weight of the A level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert;
average weight alpha of j index of M bit expert evaluationjCalculated by equation (6):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000033
further, in step II, the measuring the weight by entropy weight method includes the following steps:
first, the ith year proportion y in the jth index is calculatedij: as shown in equation (7):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000041
then, the information entropy e of the j index is calculatedjAs shown in equation (8):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000042
finally, the entropy weight w of the jth index is calculatedjAs shown in formula (9):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000043
further, in step III, on the basis of obtaining the weight by using the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process, the combined weight beta based on the entropy weight-analytic hierarchy process is calculatedjAs shown in equation (10):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000044
calculating the comprehensive index S of the ith yeariAs shown in formula (11):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000045
the invention provides a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient comprehensive evaluation method for energy system construction effect, which gives quantitative representation to the relative importance among indexes by comprehensively considering expert subjective opinions and data objective factors, so that the weights of the indexes are clear, and the evaluation result is scientific and reasonable. The comprehensive evaluation index system constructed by the invention is completely decomposed, comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, and the measuring and calculating method of the index weight is scientific and reasonable, provides a practical statistical accounting method for the country and the government, helps the country and the local evaluate the success of work in the process of energy transformation development, finds problems in time, makes policies, adjusts decisions and complements short boards.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a comprehensive evaluation method for construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system shown in the figure 1 comprises the following steps:
s1: analyzing the connotation of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
the connotation of the system and the content specifically contained in each aspect are read from the four aspects of cleanness, low carbon, safety and high efficiency.
The purpose is as follows: only by scientifically and comprehensively reading the connotation of the system, the basic indexes which can represent the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system can be found on the basis of the scientific and comprehensive reading, so that a comprehensive evaluation index system is formed.
Energy source cleaning: the energy structure gradually realizes the conversion from fossil energy as the main energy to clean energy, thereby getting rid of the dependence on the fossil energy, improving the cleanliness of the production and consumption of the fossil energy, reducing the pollutant emission and reducing the influence on the ecological environment. The energy structure cleaning comprises energy production cleaning, fossil energy such as coal and petroleum is replaced by clean energy such as solar energy, wind energy, hydroenergy and natural gas, energy consumption cleaning is realized, coal and oil are replaced by electricity, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption is improved, and primary energy and secondary energy structure cleaning is realized.
Low energy source: the global warming caused by the emission of greenhouse gases generated during the use of energy has already attracted the attention of international society, and important agreements are reached for the climate of the united nations taking the global warming as a core issue for many times, such as Paris protocol. Energy low carbon is a basic means of energy greenhouse gas emission reduction technology and the like, so that fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission are reduced, an energy structure is optimized, low-carbon energy is developed, and renewable energy sources such as wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy and the like are mainly included. The clean and efficient conversion of fossil energy, the low-carbon utilization of high-carbon energy and the improvement of the proportion of non-fossil energy are fundamental guarantees of low-carbon energy.
Energy safety: including energy supply safety, energy environment and ecological safety, energy science and technology safety, energy economy safety and the like. The greater the national dependence on energy, the greater the impact of energy safety issues. Recently, energy environment safety needs to be put to a more important position, the problem of energy cleanliness is emphatically solved, and the research, development and innovation of energy technology are accelerated. In the middle and long term, an efficient, green and low-carbon energy system is built through rationalization of energy demand, scientification, diversification, cleaning and low-carbon supply, and sustainable energy safety guarantee in China is realized.
The energy is efficient: if the energy efficiency is improved, the influence of energy safety on the economy and the society can be reduced to a certain extent. The energy efficiency refers to higher energy production, conversion and utilization efficiency, the most important measurement standard is energy utilization efficiency or energy intensity, and frequently used indexes include unit GDP energy consumption, unit output value energy consumption, unit product energy consumption, unit added value energy consumption and the like. With the rapid increase of energy consumption in China, the low energy utilization efficiency becomes an important problem. Improving the energy utilization rate is a key path for realizing high-efficiency development, if the Chinese energy utilization rate reaches the average level in the world, the consumed energy can be reduced, the pollutant and carbon emission can be greatly reduced, the energy intensity is reduced, the dependence degree on the energy is reduced, and the self-sufficient energy strategy is basically realized.
S2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
and (3) determining the principle of index selection in the comprehensive evaluation index system, and the construction principle of the index system: (1) comprehensive objective principle; (2) a simple and independent principle; (3) a data quantization principle; (4) principle of scientific theory. The purpose of constructing the index system is to evaluate the success of the system construction by using quantitative data indexes.
According to the content and the content read in the S1, a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer which reflect the construction effects of energy cleanness, low energy carbon, energy safety and high energy efficiency are found, and a three-level comprehensive evaluation index system of the target layer, the criterion layer and the index layer is definitely obtained according to the construction principle, wherein all parameters contained in the target layer and partial parameters contained in the criterion layer and the index layer are given as shown in Table 1.
The target layer is the target to be realized, and comprises clean energy, low energy and low carbon, safe energy and high energy efficiency, which are first-level indexes;
the criterion layer, namely the main aspects contained in each target, is a secondary index, such as energy safety, including energy resource storage safety, self-sufficient safety and energy supply structure safety;
the index layer, namely, each criterion is measured by using specific quantized indexes, and is a three-level index, such as energy resource storage safety including an oil storage and extraction ratio, a natural gas storage and extraction ratio and a raw coal storage and extraction ratio.
TABLE 1 comprehensive evaluation index system for construction effect of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000071
Defining a target layer as A1，A2，A3，A4。
Defining a criterion layer as B1,B2,…,BNIn which B isiWith index elements
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000072
Wherein n isiIs represented by BiHas niAnd (4) each index.
S3: standardizing all indexes;
the original data of each index has a unit, and some data are better if the data are larger and belong to forward indexes, and some data are better if the data are smaller and belong to reverse indexes. Therefore, in order to eliminate the external influence of dimensional differences existing in the raw data of each index on the evaluation result and make the indexes comparable, the index data needs to be subjected to forward and standardization processing, and the standardized calculation method is shown in the formulas (1) and (2):
for the forward indicator:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000081
for the reverse indicator:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000082
wherein i represents the ith year; j represents the jth index; n represents a total of n years; p represents a total of p indices; original index xijAfter the above operation, the index y is standardizedijY is more than or equal to 0ijThe index is less than or equal to 1, and the forward index and the reverse index are converted into the forward index, the optimal value is 1, and the worst value is 0.
S4: measuring and calculating index weight by adopting a mixed measure method;
the index weight is measured and calculated in order to enable an index system to be indexed, and finally an index is used for representing the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. There are many methods for measuring and calculating the index weight, such as principal component analysis, analytic hierarchy process, entropy weight method.
The scheme adopts a mixed measurement method, which comprises the following steps:
step I: measuring weight by using an analytic hierarchy process;
the analytic hierarchy process is a qualitative and quantitative combined decision analysis process, is often applied to multi-target, multi-criterion, multi-factor and multi-level unstructured complex decision problems, can effectively integrate judgment and comparison of measure decision makers, and has wide practicability particularly for strategic decision problems.
The method for measuring the weight by using the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
first, a decision matrix is constructed to explicitly give the relative importance between the lower layer correlation factors dominated by the upper layer factors, as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 Scale of relative importance and description thereof
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000083
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000091
Note:
a target layer: a. thej1And Aj2Refer to the j1 th and j2 th indices, aj1j2Is a score of 1/aj1j2Is aj1j2The reciprocal of (c).
B, criterion layer: b isj1And Bj2Refer to the j1 th and j2 th indices, bj1j2Is a score of 1/bj1j2Is bj1j2The reciprocal of (c).
C, index layer: cj1And Cj2Refer to the j1 th and j2 th indices, cj1j2Is a score of 1/cj1j2Is cj1j2The reciprocal of (c).
Secondly, obtaining a judgment matrix after obtaining the scoring results of M total experts, and carrying out consistency check; the qualitative thinking of a decision maker can be quantified through an analytic hierarchy process, but generally due to the complexity of system evaluation, a scoring expert may have cognitive subjectivity and the consistency of a judgment matrix cannot be guaranteed, so that consistency test must be carried out so as to check whether contradictions exist among index weights determined by the expert.
The consistency index is calculated by formula (3):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000092
wherein, λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, j represents the number of indexes, and CI represents the consistency index; when CI is 0, two judgment matrixes are consistent; the larger the CI value, the greater the degree of inconsistency is indicated; the allowable range of the inconsistency of every two judgment matrixes is judged through an inconsistency ratio, and the inconsistency ratio is calculated through a formula (4) as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000101
wherein, CR represents the inconsistency ratio, RI is a random consistency index, and the values thereof are shown in table 3: when CR is less than or equal to 0.1, judging that the matrix meets the requirement of consistency, otherwise, checking and adjusting the scores, thereby eliminating contradictions;
TABLE 3 random consistency index RI
j 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
RI 0 0 0.58 0.9 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.51
Then, calculating the weight of each index evaluated by each expert;
weight alpha of j index evaluated by m expertmjCalculated by equation (5):
αmj＝Cmj×Bmj×Amj (5)，
wherein, CmjIs the weight of the C level corresponding to the j index evaluated by the m expert, BmjIs the weight of B level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert, AmjIs the weight of the A level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert;
and finally, calculating the average weight of each index evaluated by the m experts.
Average weight alpha of j index of M bit expert evaluationjCalculated by equation (6):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000102
step II: measuring weight by an entropy weight method;
the entropy weight method is used for quantifying the influence of the relative change degree of the index on the system by calculating the information entropy of the index. The greater the degree of change of the index, the greater the weight.
The method for measuring the weight by the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
first, the ith year proportion y in the jth index is calculatedij: as shown in equation (7):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000103
then, the information entropy e of the j index is calculatedjAs shown in equation (8):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000111
finally, the entropy weight w of the jth index is calculatedjAs shown in formula (9):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000112
step III: calculating the weight by using an entropy weight-level analysis mixed measure method;
on the basis of obtaining the weight by using an entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process, calculating a combined weight beta based on the entropy weight-analytic hierarchy processjAs shown in equation (10):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000113
calculating the comprehensive index S of the ith yeariAs shown in formula (11):
Figure RE-GDA0002755668850000114
s5: and calculating a comprehensive evaluation index of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to historical data.
The comprehensive evaluation index S for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system in China in 1990 and 2019 is calculated according to the index weight calculated by the mixed measurement method in S4 and the historical data of each indexi。
The purpose of calculating the index is to directly reflect the work effect and the historical process for realizing the energy transformation target by using the change of an index, and a government department can guide decision making, analyze the effect of policy implementation and the like through a group of comprehensive and simple data.
The above embodiments are not intended to limit the present invention, and the present invention is not limited to the above examples, and those skilled in the art may make variations, modifications, additions or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the comprehensive evaluation method comprises the following steps:
s1: analyzing the connotation of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
s2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system;
s3: standardizing all indexes;
s4: the method for measuring and calculating the index weight by adopting a mixed measure method comprises the following steps:
step I: measuring weight by using an analytic hierarchy process;
step II: measuring weight by an entropy weight method;
step III: calculating the weight by using an entropy weight-level analysis mixed measure method;
s5: and calculating a comprehensive evaluation index of the construction effect of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to historical data.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps: the S2 finds a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer reflecting construction effects of energy cleanness, low energy carbon, energy safety and high energy efficiency according to the content and the content read in the S1, and definitely obtains a three-level comprehensive evaluation index system of the target layer, the criterion layer and the index layer according to a construction principle;
the target layer is the target to be realized, and comprises clean energy, low energy and low carbon, safe energy and high energy efficiency, which are first-level indexes;
the criterion layer, namely the main aspect contained in each target, is a secondary index;
the index layer, namely, what specific quantized index is used for each criterion is a three-level index.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 2 is characterized in that: in the above S3, in order to eliminate the external influence on the evaluation result caused by the dimensional difference of the raw data of each index, and make these indexes comparable, it is necessary to perform forward and normalization processing on the index data, and the normalization calculation method is as shown in formulas (1) and (2):
for the forward indicator:
Figure FDA0002666637100000021
for the reverse indicator:
Figure FDA0002666637100000022
wherein i represents the ith year; j represents the jth index; n represents a total of n years; p represents a total of p indices; original index xijAfter the above operation, the index y is standardizedijY is more than or equal to 0ijThe index is less than or equal to 1, and the forward index and the reverse index are converted into the forward index, the optimal value is 1, and the worst value is 0.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 3, characterized by comprising the following steps: in the step I, the measurement of the weight by using the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
firstly, constructing a decision matrix, and definitely giving the relative importance among the lower-layer relevant factors dominated by the upper-layer factors;
secondly, obtaining a judgment matrix after obtaining the scoring results of M total experts, and carrying out consistency check;
then, calculating the weight of each index evaluated by each expert;
and finally, calculating the average weight of each index evaluated by the M experts.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 4 is characterized in that: in the step I, the consistency index is calculated by a formula (3) as follows:
Figure FDA0002666637100000023
wherein λ ismaxIs the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, j represents the number of indexes, and CI represents the consistency index; when CI is 0, two judgment matrixes are consistent; the larger the CI value, the greater the degree of inconsistency is indicated; the allowable range of the inconsistency of every two judgment matrixes is judged through an inconsistency ratio, and the inconsistency ratio is calculated through a formula (4) as follows:
Figure FDA0002666637100000024
wherein, CR represents the inconsistency ratio, and RI is a random consistency index: when CR is less than or equal to 0.1, judging that the matrix meets the requirement of consistency, otherwise, checking and adjusting the scores, thereby eliminating contradictions;
weight alpha of j index evaluated by m expertmjCalculated by equation (5):
αmj＝Cmj×Bmj×Amj (5)，
wherein, CmjIs the weight of the C level corresponding to the j index evaluated by the m expert, BmjIs the weight of B level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert, AmjIs the weight of A level corresponding to the jth index evaluated by the mth expert;
average weight alpha of j index of M bit expert evaluationjCalculated by equation (6):
Figure FDA0002666637100000031
6. the comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 5, characterized by comprising the following steps: in the step II, the measuring the weight by the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
first, the ith year proportion y in the jth index is calculatedij: as shown in equation (7):
Figure FDA0002666637100000032
then, the information entropy e of the j index is calculatedjAs shown in equation (8):
Figure FDA0002666637100000033
finally, the entropy weight w of the jth index is calculatedjAs shown in formula (9):
Figure FDA0002666637100000034
7. the comprehensive evaluation method for the construction effect of the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system according to claim 6 is characterized in that: in the step III, on the basis of obtaining the weight by using an entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process, a combined weight beta based on the entropy weight-analytic hierarchy process is calculatedjAs shown in equation (10):
Figure FDA0002666637100000041
calculating the comprehensive index S of the ith yeariAs shown in formula (11):
Figure FDA0002666637100000042
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CN113515644A (en) * 2021-05-26 2021-10-19 中国医学科学院医学信息研究所 Hospital science and technology portrait method and system based on knowledge graph
CN113610333A (en) * 2021-04-25 2021-11-05 华北水利水电大学 Hydraulic engineering construction quality inspection method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

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