CN112101754A - Method for evaluating power emergency guarantee capability - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power emergency guarantee capability evaluation method, which relates to the technical field of emergency guarantee capability of important urban power supply units and comprises the following steps: s1, analyzing the reliability of different emergency measures; s2, establishing a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system; s3, establishing an important power supply user loss model through a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system; s4, according to the user loss situation after emergency guarantee participation calculated by the important power supply user loss model, the emergency guarantee capacity is judged according to the emergency guarantee capacity grade.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of emergency guarantee capability of important urban power supply units, in particular to an electric power emergency guarantee capability evaluation method.
Background
The significance of building an electric power emergency management platform and building and perfecting an electric power emergency guarantee capability evaluation mechanism on improving the emergency guarantee capability of an electric power system is achieved. From the actual situation of emergency guarantee, the evaluation of the important degree of the urban important power supply unit on the emergency guarantee capability is considered, so that the emergency processing capability of the urban power system is improved, and the power failure loss is reduced to the maximum extent.
The existing research mainly focuses on the construction of an emergency index system, the construction of an emergency platform and an optimization strategy of a single emergency power supply, for example, documents establish the emergency evaluation index system from the aspects of emergency early warning construction before an emergency accident, recovery means in the accident, recovery capability after the accident and the like; or establishing an emergency guarantee platform from the missing of the sampling information in the literature; or a literature starts from actual emergency of a power enterprise, and an emergency evaluation index system is constructed from various aspects of personnel, materials and materials; there are documents that also construct emergency security systems from the aspects of organization systems, techniques and systems. However, in the current research, the research on the size of the emergency guarantee capability of the system corresponding to the specific emergency strategy and emergency means is less after the emergency event occurs, and for the problem that the emergency power supply guarantee capability of the important urban units is lost in the event of emergency power failure, related research reports are not available so far, but the problem is often encountered in the actual emergency guarantee and cannot be avoided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides an electric power emergency guarantee capability evaluation method.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a power emergency guarantee capability evaluation method comprises the following steps:
s1, analyzing the reliability of different emergency measures;
s2, establishing a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
s3, establishing an important power supply user loss model through a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
and S4, judging the emergency guarantee capability according to the user loss situation after emergency guarantee participation calculated by the important power supply user loss model and the emergency guarantee capability level.
Preferably, the step S3 includes the following sub-steps
S3.1, calculating unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user;
s3.2, calculating the comprehensive weight of the power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
and S3.3, combining the emergency guarantee capability evaluation index after the comprehensive weight is calculated with the unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user to establish a loss model of the important power supply user.
Preferably, the calculating of the unit power loss of the important user power supply unit includes the following steps:
s3.1.1, determining the importance level of the user;
s3.1.2, establishing an importance degree model according to the user importance level;
s3.1.3, the unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user is determined and calculated according to the importance degree model and the basic power failure loss of the unit time and the unit power.
Preferably, the calculating the comprehensive weight of the power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system includes the following steps:
s3.2.1, data normalization;
s3.2.1, obtaining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining objective weight by using an inverse entropy weight method;
s2.2.2, determining the comprehensive weight of the emergency guarantee ability evaluation index system through the subjective weight and the objective weight.
Preferably, the importance model is:
in the formula: a isj，βj，
jRespectively losing the influence factors of the jth user load on life safety, economy, governance and specificity; w is aa，wβ，
wThe importance of the user is respectively taken as the weight of life safety, economy and specificity in the evaluation of the importance of the user, and the importance of the user is satisfied
The calculating of the unit power loss of the important user power supply unit comprises the following steps:
basic power failure loss C according to importance degree of user, unit time and unit powerjTo determine the power failure loss value C of important user j in unit time and unit powerjI.e. by
Cj＝IjCj'。
Preferably, the data normalization means that each index generates a "raw data" result, but the measurement units and levels of the "raw data" are different, and all the "raw data" must be converted into a unified standard, i.e. index evaluation, and the specific method is as follows: for the forward indicator:
for the reverse indicator:
in the formula: sj(k) To be xjkNormalized data, xmaxThe maximum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor is the minimum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor.
Preferably, the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following:
constructing a judgment matrix, and expressing the target u as Ai、ujRepresenting factor uijRepresents uiFor u is pairedjAnd u is a relative importance value ofijForming an A-U judgment matrix P;
calculating importance ranking, and obtaining the maximum characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrixmaxThe corresponding characteristic vector w is expressed as follows:
Pw＝λmaxw
the obtained characteristic vector w is normalized, namely the importance ranking of each evaluation factor, namely weight distribution; consistency check, whether the obtained weight distribution is reasonable or not, and the consistency check of the judgment matrix is needed, wherein the check uses a formula:
CR＝CI/RI
in the formula, CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is a general consistency index of the judgment matrix and is given by the following formula, wherein CI is (lambda max-n)/(n-1), RI is an average random consistency index of the judgment matrix, and a subjective calculation result of a hierarchical analysis algorithm is a subjective weight vector w' of an index set U:
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
in the formula: 1, … n; (ii) a n is U in index set UiThe number of (2); w is aiIs UiSubjective weight relative to U.
Preferably, the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
calculating the anti-entropy value by adopting the gravity center value difference of the same index in different partitions, selecting t partitions from an index set U, and establishing a difference matrix
The barycentric value of the index Ui is defined as follows:
calculate each UiInverse entropy h ofi；
In the formula:
determining an objective weight vector:
w”＝[w1”,…,wi”,…,wn”]
in the formula
Is UiObjective weight for U.
Preferably, the comprehensive weight for determining the emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system through the subjective weight and the objective weight comprises the following contents:
further determining a comprehensive weight vector of the index set U
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
In the formula
Is UiThe composite weight for U.
Preferably, the important power supply user loss model is as follows:
in the formula: j 1,2, wherein n represents the number of important units in the emergency area; i is 1,2,3,4 represents the category of the important unit; q. q.siIndicates the index of the total power loss index, w, in the important unit type ij1qiRepresenting the importance degree of the j important power supply unit on the category i under the overall index system; same principle wj2h、wj3t、 wj4pi、wj5yi、wj6liIndicating how important the remaining indicators are in category i with respect to the overall indicator system.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the method is sent from measures such as network supply reversal, distributed power supply, demand side response, mobile emergency vehicles, ups and the like, and an evaluation index system for evaluating the emergency guarantee capability of the urban important power supply unit is constructed by considering the states before and after the emergency guarantee of the power supply unit. The method comprises the steps of firstly analyzing the reliability of different emergency measures from the aspects of response speed, response capacity, response level and maneuverability, then calculating the importance degree of a power supply unit from the aspects of life safety, economy, administration, military and the like to establish the power failure loss of response, and finally establishing a complete important power supply unit emergency guarantee power failure loss evaluation model by combining an anti-entropy weight method and an analytic hierarchy process. The evaluation system and the model method provided by the invention can clearly and comprehensively reflect the magnitude of the emergency guarantee capability, more comprehensively guide the planning and reconstruction of the power grid and reduce the power failure loss.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention are further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the scope of the present invention is not limited to the following.
As shown in fig. 1, the invention provides a method for evaluating electric power emergency guarantee capability, comprising the following steps:
s1, analyzing the reliability of different emergency measures;
firstly, according to the reliability analysis of the emergency safeguard measures, the reliability of different emergency measures is analyzed from the aspects of response speed, response capacity, response grade and maneuvering flexibility, and as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1
S2, establishing a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
according to the states before and after the emergency guarantee of the power supply unit, an index system for evaluating the emergency guarantee capability of the power supply unit by the power grid is established by combining the characteristics of the power grid, and as shown in table 2:
TABLE 2
S3, establishing an important power supply user loss model through a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
the IEEE33 node system is used for testing the emergency guarantee capability of the important power supply unit, and the user importance level of the emergency unit is divided according to the method. P1 determines the user importance level:
the blackout loss per unit power is closely related to the importance degree thereof, and the more important the user is, the larger the blackout loss per unit time and per unit power is, the more quickly the power supply should be restored. Therefore, to determine the loss of the power outage per unit time and unit power of the user needs to analyze the importance degree of the user, which needs to comprehensively consider the influence of the outage of the user on life safety, economic benefit, politics, military and the like. The influence factors are used for reflecting the degree of influence of losing the load on life safety, economic benefit, politics and military affairs, and are divided into 5 grades, and the degrees of importance of the grades are increased according to the {1,2,3,4 and 5 }. For example: the hospital load has great influence on life safety, so the value can be 5; the loss of the load of the large-scale factory causes a large economic loss, so that the value can be 5;
establishing a P2 importance degree model:
by indicating the particularity of the load, for example, military enterprises have higher power failure loss due to the particularity, and the gamma value can be 5, so that the alpha, beta and
the defects caused by the importance of the load cannot be completely reflected. Therefore, for the jth power-off user, the importance degree IjCan be represented by the formula:
in the formula: a isj，βj，
jRespectively losing the influence factors of the jth user load on life safety, economy, governance and specificity; w is aa，wβ，
wThe importance of the user is respectively taken as the weight of life safety, economy and specificity in the evaluation of the importance of the user, and the importance of the user is satisfied
P3 power outage loss calculation per unit time and power:
basic power failure loss C according to importance degree of user, unit time and unit powerjTo determine the power failure loss value C of important user j in unit time and unit powerjI.e. by
Cj＝IjCj'
In the actual power emergency problem, the basic power failure loss C of unit time and unit powerjGenerally, a questionnaire can be designed and investigated according to the power failure characteristics of various users, and then the power failure loss conditions of various users are integrated to finally determine the basic power failure loss statistical value.
A typical emergency guarantee resource allocation scheme is formulated according to the unit time and unit power outage loss of users under corresponding importance levels by combining emergency measures and is shown in the following table.
TABLE 3
The scene is as follows: (a) the main power supply of the whole network is lost due to the fault of the power supply side, the fault of the power grid is quickly removed, and the expected fault recovery time is 6 h; (b) the UPS of the important power supply unit is immediately put into operation; (c) the power grid rapidly isolates other loads through an intelligent switch, a DG and an ESS are used for carrying out emergency power supply on the important units, and the response time is 10 min; (d) reducing emergency load demand within a fault time by demand response; (e) the two mobile emergency power generation cars supply power according to a plan, and the response time is determined according to the geographic position and the traffic condition. Obtaining an emergency load demand response diagram of each level of important power supply unit according to an emergency strategy, and then calculating index data
Calculating the weight of the emergency index before and after the emergency event by adopting an entropy weight resisting method and an analytic hierarchy process, and performing Q1 data normalization:
each index can generate a 'raw data' result, but the measurement units and the grades of all 'raw data' are different, and all 'raw data' must be converted into a unified standard, namely index evaluation. The specific method comprises the following steps:
for the forward indicator:
for the reverse indicator:
in the formula: sj(k) To be xjkNormalized data, xmaxThe maximum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor is the minimum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor.
Q2 analytic hierarchy process and weight solving of inverse entropy weight method:
analytic hierarchy process:
(1) and constructing a judgment matrix. A denotes the target ui、ujRepresenting a factor. u. ofijRepresents uiFor u is pairedjRelative importance value of. And is composed ofijAnd forming an A-U judgment matrix P.
(2) An importance ranking is calculated. According to the judgment matrix, the maximum characteristic root lambda of the matrix is obtainedmaxThe corresponding characteristic vector w. The equation is as follows:
Pw＝λmaxw
the obtained feature vectors w are normalized, i.e. the importance ranking of each evaluation factor, i.e. the weight distribution.
(3) And (5) checking the consistency. Whether the obtained weight distribution is reasonable or not needs to be checked for consistency of the judgment matrix. The test uses the formula:
CR＝CI/RI
in the formula, CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is the general consistency index of the judgment matrix. The RI is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix, and the RI value of the judgment matrix of 1-9 orders is shown in the table 4.
TABLE 4 value of the consistency index RI
The subjective calculation result of the hierarchical analysis algorithm is the subjective weight vector w' of the index set U:
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
in the formula: 1, … n; (ii) a n is U in index set UiThe number of (2); w is aiIs UiSubjective weight relative to U.
Entropy weight method:
(1) and calculating the anti-entropy value by adopting the gravity center value difference of the same index in different partitions. Selecting t partitions from the index set U, and establishing a difference matrix
The barycentric value of the index Ui is defined as follows:
calculate each UiInverse entropy h ofi；
In the formula:
(2) determining an objective weight vector;
w”＝[w1”,…,wi”,…,wn”]
in the formula
Is UiObjective weight for U.
Q3 weight synthesis:
further determining a comprehensive weight vector of the index set U
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
In the formula
Is UiFor the integrated weight of U, the index weight of each user in each importance level is table 5.
TABLE 5
And (3) combining the indexes with the unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user to calculate the user loss:
the main purpose of the power emergency process is to recover the power supply of multiple users as soon as possible, and the use value of the emergency power supply to important users is mainly reflected in minimizing the loss caused by power failure, so that the objective function of the emergency power supply scheduling problem can be taken as the total power failure loss cost of the important power failure users. The indexes of total loss and total power loss amount, total power loss time, continuous power supply time, emergency maximum satisfaction rate, emergency minimum satisfaction rate, emergency average satisfaction rate and the like are as follows
The important user loss of the system possibly caused by the combined use of various emergency safeguard measures of various important units is as follows:
in the formula: j 1,2, wherein n represents the number of important units in the emergency area; i-1, 2,3,4 represents a class of important unitsRespectively; q. q.siIndicates the index of the total power loss index, w, in the important unit type ij1qiRepresenting the importance degree of the j important power supply unit on the category i under the overall index system; same principle wj2h、wj3t、wj4pi、 wj5yi、wj6liIndicating how important the remaining indicators are in category i with respect to the overall indicator system.
And S4, judging the emergency guarantee capability according to the user loss situation after emergency guarantee participation calculated by the important power supply user loss model and the emergency guarantee capability level.
When calculating the emergency guarantee capability of a certain area, first, the total loss of users in the case of complete power loss of the area is calculated, and the estimated value of the failure loss after the accident occurs under a certain typical emergency guarantee configuration is shown in table 6
TABLE 6
Meanwhile, the method establishes the grade classification of the guarantee capability on the basis of the condition of the total power loss, for example, when emergency measures can enable the guaranteed user loss to account for 0% -5% of the user loss under the condition of the total power loss, the emergency guarantee capability grade is excellent. Specific grade differentiation is shown in table 7 below:
TABLE 7
The emergency guarantee capability of the user can be judged according to the loss condition of the user after the emergency guarantee participation, for example, as shown in Table 8
TABLE 8
The results in the table show that the emergency guarantee capability of the developed area is relatively deficient, the emergency satisfaction rate of the high-grade load is mainly shown to be deficient, the available power of a mobile emergency rescue vehicle, stored energy or distributed voltage can be properly increased in the future construction of the emergency guarantee capability, and meanwhile, the available power emergency resources are reasonably scheduled to reduce the loss caused by power failure as far as possible.
The foregoing is merely a preferred embodiment of the invention, it being understood that the embodiments described are part of the invention, and not all of it. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention. The invention is not intended to be limited to the forms disclosed herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein. And that modifications and variations may be effected by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A power emergency guarantee capability evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, analyzing the reliability of different emergency measures;
s2, establishing a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
s3, establishing an important power supply user loss model through a power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
and S4, judging the emergency guarantee capability according to the user loss situation after emergency guarantee participation calculated by the important power supply user loss model and the emergency guarantee capability level.
2. The power emergency security capability evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 includes the following sub-steps
S3.1, calculating unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user;
s3.2, calculating the comprehensive weight of the power supply unit emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system;
and S3.3, combining the emergency guarantee capability evaluation index after the comprehensive weight is calculated with the unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user to establish a loss model of the important power supply user.
3. The method for evaluating the power emergency guarantee capability of claim 2, wherein the step of calculating the unit power loss of the important user power supply unit comprises the following steps:
s3.1.1, determining the importance level of the user;
s3.1.2, establishing an importance degree model according to the user importance level;
s3.1.3, the unit power loss of the power supply unit of the important user is determined and calculated according to the importance degree model and the basic power failure loss of the unit time and the unit power.
4. The method for evaluating the emergency guarantee capability of the power supply unit according to claim 3, wherein the step of calculating the comprehensive weight of the emergency guarantee capability evaluation index system of the power supply unit comprises the following steps:
s3.2.1, data normalization;
s3.2.1, obtaining subjective weight by using an analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining objective weight by using an inverse entropy weight method;
s2.2.2, determining the comprehensive weight of the emergency guarantee ability evaluation index system through the subjective weight and the objective weight.
5. The method for evaluating the electric power emergency guarantee capability according to claim 4, wherein the importance degree model is as follows:
in the formula: a isj，βj，
jRespectively losing the influence factors of the jth user load on life safety, economy, politics and specificity; w is aa，wβ，
wThe importance of the user is respectively taken as the weight of life safety, economy and specificity in the evaluation of the importance of the user, and the importance of the user is satisfied
The calculating of the unit power loss of the important user power supply unit comprises the following steps:
basic power failure loss C according to importance degree of user, unit time and unit powerj' to determine the power failure loss value C of important user j unit time and unit powerjI.e. by
Cj＝IjCj'。
6. The method for evaluating the power emergency guarantee capability of claim 5, wherein the data normalization means that each index generates a raw data result, but the measurement units and the grades of the raw data are different, and all raw data must be converted into a unified standard, namely index evaluation, and the specific method is as follows: for the forward indicator:
for the reverse indicator:
in the formula: sj(k) To be xjkNormalized data, xmaxThe maximum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor is the minimum value in the number of the middle features of the jth clustering factor.
7. The method for evaluating the power emergency guarantee capability of claim 6, wherein the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
constructing a judgment matrix, and expressing the target u as Ai、ujRepresenting factor uijRepresents uiFor u is pairedjAnd u is a relative importance value ofijForming an A-U judgment matrix P;
calculating importance ranking, and obtaining the maximum characteristic root lambda of the judgment matrixmaxThe corresponding feature vector w, the equation is as follows:
Pw＝λmaxw
the obtained characteristic vector w is normalized, namely the importance ranking of each evaluation factor, namely weight distribution; consistency check, whether the obtained weight distribution is reasonable or not, and the consistency check of the judgment matrix is needed, wherein the check uses a formula:
CR＝CI/RI
in the formula, CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is a general consistency index of the judgment matrix and is given by the following formula, wherein CI is (lambda max-n)/(n-1), RI is an average random consistency index of the judgment matrix, and a subjective calculation result of a hierarchical analysis algorithm is a subjective weight vector w' of an index set U:
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
in the formula: 1, … n; (ii) a n is U in index set UiThe number of (2); w is aiIs UiSubjective weight relative to U.
8. The method for evaluating the electric power emergency guarantee capability of claim 7, wherein the entropy weight resisting method comprises the following steps:
calculating the anti-entropy value by adopting the gravity center value difference of the same index in different partitions, selecting t partitions from an index set U, and establishing a difference matrix
The barycentric value of the index Ui is defined as follows:
calculate each UiInverse entropy h ofi；
In the formula:
determining an objective weight vector:
w”＝[w1”,…,wi”,…,wn”]
in the formula
Is UiObjective weight for U.
9. The method according to claim 8, wherein the determining the comprehensive weight of the emergency support ability evaluation index system by the subjective weight and the objective weight comprises the following steps:
further determining a comprehensive weight vector of the index set U
w'＝[w1',…,wi',…,wn']
In the formula
Is UiThe composite weight for U.
10. The method for evaluating the power emergency guarantee capability of claim 9, wherein the important power supply user loss model is as follows:
in the formula: j 1,2, wherein n represents the number of important units in the emergency area; i is 1,2,3,4 represents the category of the important unit; q. q.siIndicates the index of the total power loss index, w, in the important unit type ij1qiRepresenting the importance degree of the j important power supply unit on the category i under the overall index system; same principle wj2h、wj3t、wj4pi、wj5yi、wj6liIndicating how important the remaining indicators are in category i with respect to the overall indicator system.
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| CN116502864A (en) * | 2023-06-16 | 2023-07-28 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Scheduling method and device for power distribution network emergency power supply vehicle, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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