CN112053089A - Low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method and device based on nuclear power plant - Google Patents
Low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method and device based on nuclear power plant Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method and device based on a nuclear power plant, wherein the method comprises the following steps: screening and determining unmanned aerial vehicles invading the nuclear power plant; threat analysis is carried out on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant; judging each threat to obtain the result evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant, wherein the result evaluation comprises the potential danger degree; giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level according to the danger level; and when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant, corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the corresponding defense levels. The method is developed for the nuclear power plant with determined threat elements and threat types, and is applied to the design of a low-altitude threat and defense system of the nuclear power plant, so that the safety, reliability and effectiveness of the countermeasures taken based on the method are ensured when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of low-altitude threat and defense systems of nuclear power plants, and particularly relates to a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method and device based on a nuclear power plant.
Background
The traditional threat analysis and consequence evaluation method is developed based on risk analysis, generally asset identification, weakness identification and threat identification are carried out based on the risk analysis method, and the possibility, influence and loss degree of the threat are determined through three-factor identification.
According to the traditional risk analysis method, characteristic values of asset identification, weakness identification and threat identification need to be defined or assigned, threat level is determined through the characteristic values, and consequence evaluation is carried out. The method adopts mathematical operation and data iteration modes for analysis, and is not matched with threat analysis characteristics of the low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of the prior art, and provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method and device based on a nuclear power plant, so as to ensure that the countermeasures taken based on the method are safe, reliable and effective when an unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
The technical scheme adopted for solving the technical problem is to provide a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which comprises the following steps:
screening and determining unmanned aerial vehicles invading the nuclear power plant;
threat analysis is carried out on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant;
judging each threat to obtain the result evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant, wherein the result evaluation comprises the potential danger degree;
giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level according to the danger level;
and when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant, corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the corresponding defense levels.
The unmanned aerial vehicle is an unmanned aerial vehicle.
Preferably, the specific method for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant comprises the following steps:
according to the comprehensive capability factors of the unmanned aerial vehicle in all aspects of the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed, the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant is considered and potential threats are generated, and the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant is screened and determined.
Preferably, the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant for performing threat analysis includes: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior.
Preferably, the threat analysis performed by the steps on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant specifically includes any one or more of the following:
carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
threat analysis is carried out on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle which are in black flight and invade a nuclear power plant;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of an unmanned aerial vehicle carrying an interference unit;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
Preferably, the evaluation of the result of the intrusion of the unmanned aerial vehicle into the nuclear power plant by studying and judging each threat specifically comprises any one or more of the following:
through threat analysis for judging the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering a nuclear power plant, the obtained consequence is evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat or no substantial influence;
by researching and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle when the unmanned aerial vehicle flies into the nuclear power plant, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat and ineffective technical prevention measures;
through threat analysis for researching and judging malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of people, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack, the obtained consequences are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage a building structure body, and explosion shock waves damage the building structure body;
threat analysis of electromagnetic interference malicious threat behaviors is carried out by studying and judging that the unmanned aerial vehicle carries an interference unit, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as that the production order is destroyed, and the industrial safety is threatened;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband, the obtained consequences are evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
by studying and judging the threat analysis of the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat, the obtained consequences are evaluated as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
The invention also provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device based on the nuclear power plant, which comprises the following components:
the screening and determining unit is used for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant and sending the unmanned aerial vehicle to the threat analyzing unit;
the threat analysis unit is used for developing threat analysis on the behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant screened and determined by the screening and determining unit and sending the threat analysis to the consequence evaluation unit;
the consequence evaluation unit is used for obtaining the consequence evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant through each threat analyzed by the judging threat analysis unit and sending the consequence evaluation to the defense level determining unit, wherein the consequence evaluation comprises the potential danger degree;
the defense level determining unit is used for giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree obtained by the consequence evaluation unit, determining the defense level according to the danger level and sending the defense level to the defense unit;
and the defense unit starts corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the corresponding defense level determined by the determined defense level unit when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
Preferably, the screening and determining unit screens and determines the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant according to the comprehensive capability factors of the unmanned aerial vehicle in all aspects of the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed, and by considering that the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant and generates potential threats.
Preferably, the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant for performing threat analysis includes: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior.
Preferably, the threat analysis unit comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
the second threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant in a black flying mode;
the third threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
the fourth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
the fifth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of the interference unit carried by the unmanned aerial vehicle;
the sixth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and the seventh threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
Preferably, the outcome evaluation unit comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the first threat analysis module on the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle which enters the nuclear power plant by mistake, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that the personnel in a preset range is panic, public opinion is caused, industrial safety is threatened or no substantial influence exists;
the second consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle flying into the nuclear power plant by studying and judging the second threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that personnel in a preset range is panic, public sentiment is caused, industrial safety is threatened, and technical prevention measures are invalid;
the third consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the third threat analysis module on the malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology to obtain the consequences of panic of the personnel, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
the fourth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack by studying and judging the fourth threat analysis module to obtain the consequences which are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage the building structure body and the explosion shock wave damages the building structure body;
the fifth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the electromagnetic interference of the unmanned aerial vehicle carrying the interference unit by studying and judging the fifth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to destroy the production order and threaten the industrial safety;
the sixth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband through studying and judging the sixth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
and the seventh consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat through studying and judging the seventh threat analysis module, and evaluating the obtained consequences as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
The invention provides a threat analysis and consequence evaluation method, which takes a screened and determined unmanned aerial vehicle as an input condition, carries out threat analysis and consequence evaluation on the type, capacity and behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades a nuclear power plant, summarizes the threat into unintentional threat and malicious threat according to threat characteristics of a low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle, constructs threat types, enables the threat analysis and the consequence evaluation to be in one-to-one correspondence, defines a danger level and a defense level according to the potential danger degree, and starts corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the defense level. The method for threat analysis and consequence evaluation research is developed for the places with determined threat elements and threat categories, and is suitable for the requirements of low-altitude threat scenes of nuclear power plants.
The invention provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which is applied to the design of a low-altitude threat and defense system of the nuclear power plant and ensures that counter measures taken based on the method are safe, reliable and effective when an unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant. The invention has the following beneficial effects: determining a danger level according to the potential danger degree through threat analysis and consequence evaluation; determining a defense level from the hazard level; corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the defense level, and the method and the device are matched with threat analysis characteristics of the low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle of the nuclear power plant.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a low-altitude threat analysis and outcome evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant in embodiment 1 of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device based on a nuclear power plant in embodiments 1 and 2 of the invention;
fig. 3 is a flowchart of a low-altitude threat analysis and outcome evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant in embodiment 2 of the present invention.
In the figure: 1-a screening determination unit; 2-a threat analysis unit; 3-an outcome evaluation unit; 4-determine defense level unit; 5-defense element.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical solutions of the present invention better understood, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present patent, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are exemplary only for the purpose of explaining the present patent and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, the embodiment provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which includes the following steps:
s101, screening and determining unmanned aerial vehicles invading a nuclear power plant;
s102, threat analysis is carried out on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant;
s103, evaluating the result of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant by studying and judging each threat,
the outcome assessment includes the potential risk level;
s104, giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level according to the danger level;
s105, when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant, corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the corresponding defense levels.
As shown in fig. 2, the embodiment further provides a device used in the low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, including:
the screening and determining unit 1 is used for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant and sending the unmanned aerial vehicle to the threat analyzing unit 2;
the threat analysis unit 2 is used for developing threat analysis on the behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant screened and determined by the screening and determining unit 1 and sending the threat analysis to the consequence evaluation unit 3;
the consequence evaluation unit 3 is used for obtaining the consequence evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant through each threat analyzed by the judged threat analysis unit 2 and sending the consequence evaluation to the defense level determining unit 4, wherein the consequence evaluation comprises the potential risk degree;
the defense level determining unit 4 is used for giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree obtained by the consequence evaluation unit 3, determining the defense level according to the danger level and sending the defense level to the defense unit 5;
and the defense unit 5 starts corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the corresponding defense level determined by the determined defense level unit 4 when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
The embodiment provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which is applied to the design of a low-altitude threat and defense system of the nuclear power plant and ensures that the countermeasures taken based on the method are safe, reliable and effective when an unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant. The beneficial effects of this embodiment are as follows: determining a danger level according to the potential danger degree through threat analysis and consequence evaluation; determining a defense level from the hazard level; and starting corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the defense level, wherein the method and the device are matched with threat analysis characteristics of the low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle of the nuclear power plant.
Example 2
As shown in fig. 3, the embodiment provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which includes the following steps:
s201, integrating various capability factors according to the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed of the unmanned aerial vehicle, considering that the unmanned aerial vehicle invades a nuclear power plant and generates potential threats, and screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant; the unmanned aerial vehicle is an unmanned aerial vehicle.
S202, threat analysis is carried out on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant;
preferably, the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant for performing threat analysis includes: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior. Specifically, the unmanned aerial vehicle that invades the nuclear power plant who develops threat analysis in this embodiment behaves and includes: unintentional threat behavior and malicious threat behavior. Preferably, the threat analysis of the behavior of the drone intruding the nuclear power plant includes any one or more of the following:
carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
threat analysis is carried out on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle which are in black flight and invade a nuclear power plant;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of an unmanned aerial vehicle carrying an interference unit;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
Specifically, the threat analysis of the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant in the embodiment includes all the above threat analysis of the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant.
S203, result evaluation of unmanned aerial vehicle invading nuclear power plant is obtained by studying and judging each threat, and the result evaluation comprises potential danger degree, and specifically comprises the following steps:
through threat analysis for judging the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering a nuclear power plant, the obtained consequence is evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat or no substantial influence;
by researching and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle when the unmanned aerial vehicle flies into the nuclear power plant, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat and ineffective technical prevention measures;
through threat analysis for researching and judging malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of people, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack, the obtained consequences are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage a building structure body, and explosion shock waves damage the building structure body;
threat analysis of electromagnetic interference malicious threat behaviors is carried out by studying and judging that the unmanned aerial vehicle carries an interference unit, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as that the production order is destroyed, and the industrial safety is threatened;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband, the obtained consequences are evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
by studying and judging the threat analysis of the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat, the obtained consequences are evaluated as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
Specifically, the evaluation of the result of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant by studying and judging each threat in the embodiment includes all the above evaluation of the result of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant by studying and judging each threat.
S204, a danger level is given according to the potential danger degree, and the defense level is determined according to the danger level, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
giving a danger level of 1 to the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant according to the potential danger degree, and determining the defense level to be level 3 according to the danger level;
according to the potential danger degree, a danger level of 2 is given to malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle which flies into the nuclear power plant, and the defense level is determined to be 3 according to the danger level;
giving a danger level of 3 to malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level of 3 according to the danger level;
according to the potential danger degree, the danger level of the malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack is given to be 4, and the defense level is determined to be 2 according to the danger level;
giving a danger level of 4 to malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of an interference unit carried by the unmanned aerial vehicle according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level of 2 according to the danger level;
giving a danger level of 5 to malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level of 1 according to the danger level;
and (3) giving a danger level of 5 to the malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat according to the potential danger degree, and determining the defense level of 1 according to the danger level.
S205 when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant, corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the corresponding defense levels, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
when the unmanned aerial vehicle enters the nuclear power plant by mistake, starting corresponding 3-level plan measures of physical defense, technical defense and civil defense according to corresponding defense levels;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle flies into the nuclear power plant, starting corresponding 3-level plan measures of physical defense, technical defense and civil defense according to the corresponding defense level;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle technology reconnaissance, starting corresponding 3-level plan measures of physical defense, technical defense and civil defense according to corresponding defense levels;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle is damaged and/or terrorist attack is carried out, corresponding physical defense, technical defense and civil defense 2-level plan measures are started according to corresponding defense levels;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle carries an interference unit to carry out electromagnetic interference, starting corresponding object defense, technical defense and civil defense 2-level plan measures according to corresponding defense levels;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle assists in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband, corresponding physical defense, technical defense and civil defense level 1 plan measures are started according to corresponding defense levels;
when the unmanned aerial vehicle assists in combat, corresponding 1-level plan measures of physical defense, technical defense and civil defense are started according to corresponding defense levels.
As shown in fig. 2, the embodiment further provides a device used in the low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, including:
the screening and determining unit 1 is used for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant and sending the unmanned aerial vehicle to the threat analyzing unit 2;
the threat analysis unit 2 is used for developing threat analysis on the behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant screened and determined by the screening and determining unit 1 and sending the threat analysis to the consequence evaluation unit 3;
the consequence evaluation unit 3 is used for obtaining the consequence evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant through each threat analyzed by the judged threat analysis unit 2 and sending the consequence evaluation to the defense level determining unit 4, wherein the consequence evaluation comprises the potential risk degree;
the defense level determining unit 4 is used for giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree obtained by the consequence evaluation unit 3, determining the defense level according to the danger level and sending the defense level to the defense unit 5;
and the defense unit 5 starts corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the corresponding defense level determined by the determined defense level unit 4 when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
Preferably, the screening and determining unit 1 screens and determines the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant according to the comprehensive capability factors of the unmanned aerial vehicle in all aspects of the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed, and by considering that the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant and generates potential threats.
Preferably, the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant for performing threat analysis includes: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior.
Preferably, the threat analysis unit 2 comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
the second threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant in a black flying mode;
the third threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
the fourth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
the fifth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of the interference unit carried by the unmanned aerial vehicle;
the sixth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and the seventh threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
Preferably, the outcome evaluation unit 3 comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the first threat analysis module on the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle which enters the nuclear power plant by mistake, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that the personnel in a preset range is panic, public opinion is caused, industrial safety is threatened or no substantial influence exists;
the second consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle flying into the nuclear power plant by studying and judging the second threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that personnel in a preset range is panic, public sentiment is caused, industrial safety is threatened, and technical prevention measures are invalid;
the third consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the third threat analysis module on the malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology to obtain the consequences of panic of the personnel, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
the fourth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack by studying and judging the fourth threat analysis module to obtain the consequences which are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage the building structure body and the explosion shock wave damages the building structure body;
the fifth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the electromagnetic interference of the unmanned aerial vehicle carrying the interference unit by studying and judging the fifth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to destroy the production order and threaten the industrial safety;
the sixth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband through studying and judging the sixth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
and the seventh consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat through studying and judging the seventh threat analysis module, and evaluating the obtained consequences as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
The embodiment provides a threat analysis and consequence evaluation method, the method takes a screened and determined unmanned aerial vehicle as an input condition, when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades a nuclear power plant, threat analysis and consequence evaluation are carried out on the type, the capability and the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle, according to threat characteristics of a low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle, threats are summarized into unintentional threats and malicious threats, threat categories are constructed, so that the threat analysis and the consequence evaluation are in one-to-one correspondence, a danger level and a defense level are defined according to a potential danger degree, and corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the defense level. The method for threat analysis and consequence evaluation research is developed for the places with determined threat elements and threat categories, and is suitable for the requirements of low-altitude threat scenes of nuclear power plants.
The embodiment provides a low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant, which is applied to the design of a low-altitude threat and defense system of the nuclear power plant and ensures that the countermeasures taken based on the method are safe, reliable and effective when an unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant. The beneficial effects of this embodiment are as follows: determining a danger level according to the potential danger degree through threat analysis and consequence evaluation; determining a defense level from the hazard level; and starting corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the defense level, wherein the method and the device are matched with threat analysis characteristics of the low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle of the nuclear power plant.
The following unmanned aerial vehicle is an unmanned aerial vehicle.
In the embodiment, a method is described by taking threat analysis and consequence evaluation, danger level and defense level definition and coping measures of a small unmanned aerial vehicle carrying explosive attack in operating a nuclear power plant as examples:
the input condition is that an unmanned aerial vehicle (the type and capacity of the unmanned aerial vehicle are considered according to the empty weight of 4-15 Kg and the maximum takeoff weight of 7-25 Kg) carries 5Kg of TNT explosive and attempts to attack an operating nuclear power plant.
When the flying hand controls the unmanned aerial vehicle to take off from the flying point, the unmanned aerial vehicle flies to the nuclear power plant along a preset air route, when the unmanned aerial vehicle flies to a warning area arranged in the nuclear power plant, the unmanned aerial vehicle is identified and confirmed by the low-altitude defense system, the characteristics of the unmanned aerial vehicle are judged through the low-altitude defense system, the unmanned aerial vehicle which is determined to invade the nuclear power plant is screened, and the unmanned aerial vehicle is suspected to have obvious malicious threat.
If the blast produced by the explosive is exploded, the blast can cause serious harm to the structure of the building (structure) of the nuclear power plant, and the following contents are rechecked and screened:
and determining important equipment of the nuclear power plant and a target area needing important protection from the perspective of nuclear safety.
According to the assumed shock wave generated by explosive explosion, the structure body of a building (structure) of a nuclear power plant is subjected to explosion analysis, and important equipment and a target entity barrier needing important protection are rechecked.
And determining the target needing important protection according to the rechecking result.
The method strengthens the solid barrier capability of the building (structure) of the nuclear power plant in a rechecking and target screening mode, and reduces the harmful influence of possible explosive explosion on the solid barrier to the minimum.
By adopting the method, the consequences generated under the assumed conditions can be evaluated.
The risk levels are given in terms of the degree of potential risk, and correspond from very low, small, general, severe, very severe to levels of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
The defense level is determined by the danger level, and the defense level is 1 level, 2 level and 3 level from high level, middle level and low level.
And starting and implementing corresponding defense means (civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures) according to corresponding defense levels, wherein: the civil defense measures implement response strategies and emergency plans, and corresponding emergency plans are set according to defense levels, wherein the emergency plans are 1 level, 2 levels and 3 levels from high level, medium level and low level.
It will be understood that the above embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments taken to illustrate the principles of the present invention, which is not limited thereto. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the spirit and substance of the invention, and these modifications and improvements are also considered to be within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on a nuclear power plant is characterized by comprising the following steps:
screening and determining unmanned aerial vehicles invading the nuclear power plant;
threat analysis is carried out on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant;
judging each threat to obtain the result evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant, wherein the result evaluation comprises the potential danger degree;
giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree, and determining a defense level according to the danger level;
and when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant, corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures are started according to the corresponding defense levels.
2. The nuclear power plant-based low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the specific method for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant in the step is as follows:
according to the comprehensive capability factors of the unmanned aerial vehicle in all aspects of the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed, the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant is considered and potential threats are generated, and the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant is screened and determined.
3. The nuclear power plant-based low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant that performs the threat analysis comprises: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior.
4. The low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on the nuclear power plant according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the threat analysis performed by the steps on the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant specifically includes any one or more of the following:
carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
threat analysis is carried out on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle which are in black flight and invade a nuclear power plant;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of an unmanned aerial vehicle carrying an interference unit;
carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
5. The low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation method based on the nuclear power plant as claimed in claim 4, wherein the evaluation of the consequence of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant by studying and judging each threat specifically comprises any one or more of the following:
through threat analysis for judging the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering a nuclear power plant, the obtained consequence is evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat or no substantial influence;
by researching and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle when the unmanned aerial vehicle flies into the nuclear power plant, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of personnel in a preset range, public opinion, industrial safety threat and ineffective technical prevention measures;
through threat analysis for researching and judging malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology, the obtained consequences are evaluated as panic of people, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack, the obtained consequences are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage a building structure body, and explosion shock waves damage the building structure body;
threat analysis of electromagnetic interference malicious threat behaviors is carried out by studying and judging that the unmanned aerial vehicle carries an interference unit, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as that the production order is destroyed, and the industrial safety is threatened;
by studying and judging threat analysis of malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband, the obtained consequences are evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
by studying and judging the threat analysis of the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat, the obtained consequences are evaluated as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
6. A low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device based on a nuclear power plant is characterized by comprising:
the screening and determining unit is used for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant and sending the unmanned aerial vehicle to the threat analyzing unit;
the threat analysis unit is used for developing threat analysis on the behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant screened and determined by the screening and determining unit and sending the threat analysis to the consequence evaluation unit;
the consequence evaluation unit is used for obtaining the consequence evaluation of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant through each threat analyzed by the judging threat analysis unit and sending the consequence evaluation to the defense level determining unit, wherein the consequence evaluation comprises the potential danger degree;
the defense level determining unit is used for giving a danger level according to the potential danger degree obtained by the consequence evaluation unit, determining the defense level according to the danger level and sending the defense level to the defense unit;
and the defense unit starts corresponding civil defense, physical defense and technical defense measures according to the corresponding defense level determined by the determined defense level unit when the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant.
7. The nuclear power plant-based low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device according to claim 6, wherein the screening and determining unit is used for screening and determining the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant according to the comprehensive capability factors of the unmanned aerial vehicle in all aspects of the air-plane quality, the maximum takeoff quality, the flight altitude and the flight speed, and considering that the unmanned aerial vehicle invades the nuclear power plant and generates potential threats.
8. The nuclear power plant-based low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device according to claim 6, wherein the behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle invading the nuclear power plant that performs the threat analysis comprises: unintentional threat behavior and/or malicious threat behavior.
9. The low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device based on the nuclear power plant as claimed in any one of claims 6 to 8, wherein the threat analysis unit comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the unintentional threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle mistakenly entering the nuclear power plant;
the second threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle intruding into the nuclear power plant in a black flying mode;
the third threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology;
the fourth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack;
the fifth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of electromagnetic interference of the interference unit carried by the unmanned aerial vehicle;
the sixth threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband;
and the seventh threat analysis module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat.
10. The low-altitude threat analysis and consequence evaluation device based on a nuclear power plant according to claim 9, wherein the consequence evaluation unit comprises any one or more of the following modules:
the first consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the first threat analysis module on the unintentional threat behavior of the unmanned aerial vehicle which enters the nuclear power plant by mistake, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that the personnel in a preset range is panic, public opinion is caused, industrial safety is threatened or no substantial influence exists;
the second consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle flying into the nuclear power plant by studying and judging the second threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to be that personnel in a preset range is panic, public sentiment is caused, industrial safety is threatened, and technical prevention measures are invalid;
the third consequence evaluation module is used for evaluating the threat analysis of the third threat analysis module on the malicious threat behaviors detected by the unmanned aerial vehicle technology to obtain the consequences of panic of the personnel, public sentiment and secret leakage in a preset range;
the fourth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of unmanned aerial vehicle damage and/or terrorist attack by studying and judging the fourth threat analysis module to obtain the consequences which are evaluated as that the unmanned aerial vehicle collides to damage the building structure body and the explosion shock wave damages the building structure body;
the fifth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on the malicious threat behaviors of the electromagnetic interference of the unmanned aerial vehicle carrying the interference unit by studying and judging the fifth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated to destroy the production order and threaten the industrial safety;
the sixth consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisting in transporting nuclear materials and/or contraband through studying and judging the sixth threat analysis module, and the obtained consequence is evaluated as illegal transfer, loss and theft of the nuclear materials or violation of national laws;
and the seventh consequence evaluation module is used for carrying out threat analysis on malicious threat behaviors of the unmanned aerial vehicle assisted combat through studying and judging the seventh threat analysis module, and evaluating the obtained consequences as force invasion, property loss and danger to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.
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