CN112032568A - Prediction algorithm and prediction method of leakage risk degree of buried gas pipeline - Google Patents

Prediction algorithm and prediction method of leakage risk degree of buried gas pipeline Download PDF

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CN112032568A
CN112032568A CN202010815236.6A CN202010815236A CN112032568A CN 112032568 A CN112032568 A CN 112032568A CN 202010815236 A CN202010815236 A CN 202010815236A CN 112032568 A CN112032568 A CN 112032568A
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何文韬
乔宏哲
陶国正
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Changzhou Vocational Institute of Mechatronic Technology
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Abstract

本发明属于燃气管道维护技术领域,具体涉及一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法及预测方法,本埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法包括:采集数据;根据相应数据建立相应向量;根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型;根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度;根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略;本发明能够克服由人工根据监测数据进行埋地燃气管道泄漏危险判断和预警具有主观性强、随意性大的缺点,并且有利于对埋地燃气管道泄漏事故进行提前防护和预测性维护,预测性维护具有更好的经济性,同时降低了埋地燃气管道维护的人力成本。

Figure 202010815236

The invention belongs to the technical field of gas pipeline maintenance, and in particular relates to an algorithm and a method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines. The leakage risk prediction algorithm of buried gas pipelines includes: collecting data; The leakage risk model of buried gas pipeline is constructed by vector; according to the leakage risk model of buried gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline, the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding position can be obtained in real time; according to the buried gas pipeline leakage risk of the corresponding position A preventive maintenance strategy for pipeline leakage risk generation; the invention can overcome the shortcomings of strong subjectivity and randomness in the judgment and early warning of buried gas pipeline leakage risk based on monitoring data, and is beneficial to the detection of buried gas pipeline leakage accidents Carry out advance protection and predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance has better economics and reduces the labor cost of buried gas pipeline maintenance.

Figure 202010815236

Description

一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法及预测方法Prediction algorithm and prediction method of leakage risk degree of buried gas pipeline

技术领域technical field

本发明属于燃气管道维护技术领域,具体涉及一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法及预测方法。The invention belongs to the technical field of gas pipeline maintenance, and in particular relates to a leakage risk prediction algorithm and a prediction method of a buried gas pipeline.

背景技术Background technique

埋地燃气管道泄漏不能直观明显的被发现,特别是发生微量渗漏,更是不容易发现。当发生泄漏时,很可能发生爆炸等一系列的次生灾害,从而造成严重的人身伤亡和财产损失。埋地管道属于隐蔽工程,有着24小时不间断运行等特点,日常巡检只能保障“表面”安全,而内部情况掌握甚少,造成信息掌握不足,管理困难。超声波实时监测燃气管道数据只能用于架空管道,对埋地管道无法取得足够的信息。Buried gas pipeline leakage cannot be found intuitively and obviously, especially when trace leakage occurs, it is not easy to find. When a leak occurs, a series of secondary disasters such as explosions are likely to occur, resulting in serious personal casualties and property losses. Buried pipelines are concealed projects with 24-hour uninterrupted operation. Routine inspections can only ensure "surface" safety, and the internal situation is poorly understood, resulting in insufficient information and difficult management. Ultrasonic real-time monitoring of gas pipeline data can only be used for overhead pipelines, and sufficient information cannot be obtained for buried pipelines.

目前,对于埋地燃气管道常用的检测方法包括人工巡检和基于物联网技术的智能巡检,这些巡检方法都是检测埋地燃气管道泄漏情况,都属于事后维护。事后维护方式使用埋地燃气管道直到发生泄漏,然后维修,如遇严重泄漏,可能会造成巨大损失。At present, the commonly used detection methods for buried gas pipelines include manual inspection and intelligent inspection based on the Internet of Things technology. The post-event maintenance method uses buried gas pipelines until leakage occurs, and then repairs them. In case of serious leakage, it may cause huge losses.

目前正在发展以状态监测为基础的状态维护,专家根据状态监测所得到的各测量值所提供的信息,采用所掌握的关于埋地管道的知识和经验,进行推理判断,从而提出对埋地管道的维护建议。这种方法由于使用了专家等大量人力介入,工作量大,人力成本高,经济性差;同时也存在主观性强,随意性大的问题。Condition maintenance based on condition monitoring is currently being developed. According to the information provided by the measured values obtained by condition monitoring, experts use the knowledge and experience they have about buried pipelines to make inferences and judgments. maintenance recommendations. Due to the use of a large number of human interventions such as experts, this method has a large workload, high labor costs, and poor economy; at the same time, there are problems of strong subjectivity and large randomness.

因此,亟需开发一种新的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法及预测方法,以解决上述问题。Therefore, it is urgent to develop a new prediction algorithm and prediction method for the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines to solve the above problems.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本发明的目的是提供一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法及预测方法。The purpose of the present invention is to provide an algorithm and a method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines.

为了解决上述技术问题,本发明提供了一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其包括:采集数据;根据相应数据建立相应向量;根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型;根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度;根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略。In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides an algorithm for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines, which includes: collecting data; establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data; building a leakage risk model of the buried gas pipeline according to the corresponding vector; The leakage risk model of the underground gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline are used to obtain the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline in the corresponding position in real time; the preventive maintenance strategy is generated according to the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline in the corresponding position.

进一步,所述采集数据的方法包括:采集应力值、PH值,并根据相应应力值、PH值计算应力变化率、PH值变化率,即所述应力变化率为:

Figure BDA0002632446160000021
所述PH值变化率为:
Figure BDA0002632446160000022
其中,F0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的应力测量平均值,Fi为第i个记录的应力值,FRi为第i个记录的应力变化率,PH0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的PH值测量平均值,PHi为第i个记录的PH值,PHRi为第i个记录的PH值变化率。Further, the method for collecting data includes: collecting stress value and pH value, and calculating the stress change rate and pH value change rate according to the corresponding stress value and pH value, that is, the stress change rate is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000021
The rate of change of the pH value is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000022
Among them, F 0j is the average stress measurement of the corresponding jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, F i is the stress value of the ith record, and FR i is the stress of the ith record. Rate of change, PH 0j is the measured average value of the pH value of the jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, PH i is the pH value of the i-th record, and PHR i is the i-th record. rate of change in pH.

进一步,所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法包括:对特征应力变化率FRi,PH值变化率PHRi进行量化,量化间隔为0.1,且埋地燃气管道使用时间按年份取整。Further, the method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data includes: quantifying the characteristic stress change rate FR i , the pH value change rate PHR i , the quantization interval is 0.1, and the use time of the buried gas pipeline is rounded by year.

进一步,所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法还包括:建立数据向量:x=(x(1),x(2),x(3));建立系数向量:w=(w(1),w(2),w(3));构建最优化模型,即

Figure BDA0002632446160000023
S.tyi(w.xi+b)≥1-ξi;ξi≥0i=1,2,......,N;其中,x(1)为量化后的应力变化率,x(2)为量化后的PH值变化率,x(3)为量化后的燃气管道使用时间,向量w的分量是向量x相应分量的系数,C为惩罚系数;xi为第i个训练数据向量;yi为xi的类标记,当yi为-1时表示埋地燃气管道出现泄露,当yi为1时表示埋地燃气管道状态正常;N为训练数据数目;ξ为松弛变量;ξi为第i个训练数据的松弛变量;b为偏置;则最优化模型的解为:w*
Figure BDA0002632446160000031
其中,w*为最优分类超平面的法向量;
Figure BDA0002632446160000032
为拉格朗日乘子向量中对偶问题的解的第i个元素。Further, the method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data further includes: establishing a data vector: x=(x (1) , x (2) , x (3) ); establishing a coefficient vector: w=(w (1) , w (2) , w (3) ); construct the optimal model, namely
Figure BDA0002632446160000023
S.ty i (wx i +b)≥1-ξ i ; ξ i ≥0i=1,2,...,N; where, x (1) is the quantized stress change rate, x ( 2) is the rate of change of PH value after quantization, x (3) is the use time of the gas pipeline after quantization, the component of vector w is the coefficient of the corresponding component of vector x, C is the penalty coefficient; x i is the ith training data vector ; y i is the class label of xi , when y i is -1, it means that the buried gas pipeline leaks, and when y i is 1, it means that the buried gas pipeline is in normal state; N is the number of training data; ξ is the slack variable; ξ i is the slack variable of the i-th training data; b is the bias; the solution of the optimal model is: w * ;
Figure BDA0002632446160000031
Among them, w * is the normal vector of the optimal classification hyperplane;
Figure BDA0002632446160000032
is the ith element of the solution to the dual problem in the vector of Lagrangian multipliers.

进一步,所述根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型的方法包括:获取应力值、PH值在法向量上进行投影后所得到的数据,出现埋地燃气管道泄露与埋地燃气管道状态正常两个数据类别的均值与方差,即

Figure BDA0002632446160000033
Figure BDA0002632446160000034
其中,NA为类别y=1的样本数;NB为类别y=-1的样本数;μB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;μA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;δA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;δB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;
Figure BDA0002632446160000035
Further, the method for constructing the leakage risk model of buried gas pipelines according to the corresponding vectors includes: obtaining data obtained by projecting stress values and PH values on the normal vector, and the occurrence of buried gas pipeline leakage and the state of buried gas pipelines. The mean and variance of two normal data categories, namely
Figure BDA0002632446160000033
Figure BDA0002632446160000034
Among them, NA is the number of samples of category y = 1; NB is the number of samples of category y=-1; μ B is the mean value of the data obtained after the data of buried gas pipeline leakage is projected on the w * vector axis; μ A is the mean value of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ A is the standard deviation of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ B The standard deviation of the data obtained after the projection of the buried gas pipeline leakage data on the w * vector axis;
Figure BDA0002632446160000035

进一步,所述根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度的方法包括:设xA为所有y=1的样本数据总和,ZA为xA在w*向量轴的投影,设当前数据为xc,即Zc=w*xc;当wxc≤μAA时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为0;当wxc≥μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为1;当μAA≤wxc≤μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为:

Figure BDA0002632446160000041
其中,H(ZC|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,ZC的条件熵;H(μB|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,μB的条件熵;埋地燃气管道危险度V越小表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越小,埋地燃气管道危险度V越大表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越大。Further, according to the buried gas pipeline leakage risk model and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline, the method for obtaining the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline in the corresponding position in real time includes: setting x A to be all samples of y=1 The sum of data, Z A is the projection of x A on the w * vector axis, and the current data is set as x c , that is, Zc = w * x c ; when wx c ≤ μ A + δ A , the buried gas pipeline hazard V is 0; when wx c ≥μ BB , the risk degree V of buried gas pipeline is 1; when μ AA ≤wx c ≤μ BB , the risk degree V of buried gas pipeline is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000041
Among them, H(Z C | Z A ) is the conditional entropy of Z C under the given Z A condition; H(μ B | Z A ) is the conditional entropy of μ B under the given Z A condition; The smaller the risk degree V of the gas pipeline is, the smaller the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is, and the higher the risk degree V of the buried gas pipeline is, the greater the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is.

进一步,所述根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略的方法包括:根据埋地燃气管道危险度控制巡检时间间隔,即T=VT1+(1-V)T0;T为当前埋地燃气管道在当前危险度V下应当采用的巡检时间间隔,T0对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为0时的基准巡检时间间隔,T1为对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为1时的基准巡检时间间隔。Further, the method for generating the preventive maintenance strategy according to the leakage risk degree of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding location includes: controlling the inspection time interval according to the risk degree of the buried gas pipeline, that is, T=VT 1 +(1-V)T 0 ; T is the inspection time interval that should be used for the current buried gas pipeline under the current risk degree V, T 0 is the reference inspection time interval for the current buried gas pipeline when the risk degree V is 0, and T 1 is the current buried gas pipeline. The gas pipeline is the reference inspection time interval when the risk degree V is 1.

另一方面,本发明提供一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法,其包括:采集数据并发送至云服务器和/或处理器模块;云服务器和/或处理器模块根据数据判断埋地燃气管道危险度。In another aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines, which includes: collecting data and sending it to a cloud server and/or a processor module; the cloud server and/or the processor module determine the buried gas according to the data Pipeline hazard.

进一步,所述云服务器和/或处理器模块适于采用如上述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法判断埋地燃气管道危险度。Further, the cloud server and/or the processor module are suitable for judging the risk degree of the buried gas pipeline by adopting the above-mentioned prediction algorithm for the leakage risk degree of the buried gas pipeline.

本发明的有益效果是,本发明能够克服由人工根据监测数据进行埋地燃气管道泄漏危险判断和预警具有主观性强、随意性大的缺点,并且有利于对埋地燃气管道泄漏事故进行提前防护和预测性维护,相对于事后维护,预测性维护具有更好的经济性,同时降低了埋地燃气管道维护的人力成本。The beneficial effect of the present invention is that the present invention can overcome the shortcomings of strong subjectivity and randomness in the judgment and early warning of the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines manually based on monitoring data, and is conducive to early prevention of leakage accidents of buried gas pipelines And predictive maintenance, compared with post-event maintenance, predictive maintenance has better economics, while reducing the labor cost of buried gas pipeline maintenance.

本发明的其他特征和优点将在随后的说明书中阐述,并且,部分地从说明书中变得显而易见,或者通过实施本发明而了解。Other features and advantages of the present invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be apparent from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.

为使本发明的上述目的、特征和优点能更明显易懂,下文特举较佳实施例,并配合所附附图,作详细说明如下。In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, preferred embodiments are given below, and are described in detail as follows in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

附图说明Description of drawings

为了更清楚地说明本发明具体实施方式或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对具体实施方式或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍,显而易见地,下面描述中的附图是本发明的一些实施方式,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art more clearly, the following briefly introduces the accompanying drawings that need to be used in the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description The drawings are some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings without creative efforts.

图1是本发明的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法的流程图;Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the buried gas pipeline leakage risk degree prediction algorithm of the present invention;

图2是本发明的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法的流程图。FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines according to the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

为使本发明实施例的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚,下面将结合附图对本发明的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述,显然,所描述的实施例是本发明一部分实施例,而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都属于本发明保护的范围。In order to make the purposes, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of them. example. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

实施例1Example 1

图1是本发明的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法的流程图。FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the leakage risk prediction algorithm of the buried gas pipeline according to the present invention.

在本实施例中,如图1所示,本实施例提供了一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其包括:采集数据;根据相应数据建立相应向量;根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型;根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度;根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略。In this embodiment, as shown in FIG. 1 , this embodiment provides an algorithm for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines, which includes: collecting data; establishing corresponding vectors according to corresponding data; building buried gas pipelines according to corresponding vectors Leakage risk model; according to the leakage risk model of buried gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline, the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding location can be obtained in real time; the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding location can be generated to prevent Sexual maintenance strategy.

在本实施例中,本实施例能够克服由人工根据监测数据进行埋地燃气管道泄漏危险判断和预警具有主观性强、随意性大的缺点,并且有利于对埋地燃气管道泄漏事故进行提前防护和预测性维护,相对于事后维护,预测性维护具有更好的经济性,同时降低了埋地燃气管道维护的人力成本。In this embodiment, this embodiment can overcome the shortcomings of strong subjectivity and randomness in the manual judgment and early warning of buried gas pipeline leakage based on monitoring data, and is conducive to early prevention of buried gas pipeline leakage accidents And predictive maintenance, compared with post-event maintenance, predictive maintenance has better economics, while reducing the labor cost of buried gas pipeline maintenance.

在本实施例中,所述采集数据的方法包括:采集应力值、PH值,并根据相应应力值、PH值计算应力变化率、PH值变化率,即所述应力变化率为:

Figure BDA0002632446160000061
所述PH值变化率为:
Figure BDA0002632446160000062
其中,F0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的应力测量平均值,Fi为第i个记录的应力值,FRi为第i个记录的应力变化率,PH0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的PH值测量平均值,PHi为第i个记录的PH值,PHRi为第i个记录的PH值变化率。In this embodiment, the method for collecting data includes: collecting stress value and pH value, and calculating the stress change rate and pH value change rate according to the corresponding stress value and pH value, that is, the stress change rate is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000061
The rate of change of the pH value is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000062
Among them, F 0j is the average stress measurement of the corresponding jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, F i is the stress value of the ith record, and FR i is the stress of the ith record. Rate of change, PH 0j is the measured average value of the pH value of the jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, PH i is the pH value of the i-th record, and PHR i is the i-th record. rate of change in pH.

在本实施例中,所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法包括:对特征应力变化率FRi,PH值变化率PHRi进行量化,量化间隔为0.1,且埋地燃气管道使用时间按年份取整。In this embodiment, the method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data includes: quantifying the characteristic stress change rate FR i , the pH value change rate PHR i , the quantization interval is 0.1, and the use time of the buried gas pipeline is determined by year all.

在本实施例中,所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法还包括:建立数据向量:x=(x(1),x(2),x(3));建立系数向量:w=(w(1),w(2),w(3));构建最优化模型,即

Figure BDA0002632446160000063
S.tyi(w.xi+b)≥1-ξi;ξi≥0i=1,2,......,N;其中,x(1)为量化后的应力变化率,x(2)为量化后的PH值变化率,x(3)为量化后的燃气管道使用时间,向量w的分量是向量x相应分量的系数,C为惩罚系数;xi为第i个训练数据向量;yi为xi的类标记,当yi为-1时表示埋地燃气管道出现泄露,当yi为1时表示埋地燃气管道状态正常;N为训练数据数目;ξ为松弛变量;ξi为第i个训练数据的松弛变量;b为偏置;则最优化模型的解为:w*
Figure BDA0002632446160000064
其中,w*为最优分类超平面的法向量;
Figure BDA0002632446160000065
为拉格朗日乘子向量中对偶问题的解的第i个元素。In this embodiment, the method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data further includes: establishing a data vector: x=(x (1) , x (2) , x (3) ); establishing a coefficient vector: w=(w (1) , w (2) , w (3) ); build an optimization model, that is
Figure BDA0002632446160000063
S.ty i (wx i +b)≥1-ξ i ; ξ i ≥0i=1,2,...,N; where, x (1) is the quantized stress change rate, x ( 2) is the rate of change of PH value after quantization, x (3) is the use time of the gas pipeline after quantization, the component of vector w is the coefficient of the corresponding component of vector x, C is the penalty coefficient; x i is the ith training data vector ; y i is the class label of xi , when y i is -1, it means that the buried gas pipeline leaks, and when y i is 1, it means that the buried gas pipeline is in normal state; N is the number of training data; ξ is the slack variable; ξ i is the slack variable of the i-th training data; b is the bias; the solution of the optimal model is: w * ;
Figure BDA0002632446160000064
Among them, w * is the normal vector of the optimal classification hyperplane;
Figure BDA0002632446160000065
is the ith element of the solution to the dual problem in the vector of Lagrangian multipliers.

在本实施例中,所述根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型的方法包括:获取应力值、PH值在法向量上进行投影后所得到的数据,出现埋地燃气管道泄露与埋地燃气管道状态正常两个数据类别的均值与方差,即In this embodiment, the method for constructing a leakage risk model of a buried gas pipeline according to a corresponding vector includes: obtaining the data obtained by projecting the stress value and the PH value on the normal vector, and the occurrence of leakage and buried gas pipeline leakage in the buried gas pipeline. The mean and variance of the two data categories in the normal state of the ground gas pipeline, namely

Figure BDA0002632446160000071
Figure BDA0002632446160000071

Figure BDA0002632446160000072
其中,NA为类别y=1的样本数;NB为类别y=-1的样本数;μB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;μA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;δA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;δB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;
Figure BDA0002632446160000073
Figure BDA0002632446160000072
Among them, NA is the number of samples of category y = 1; NB is the number of samples of category y=-1; μ B is the mean value of the data obtained after the data of buried gas pipeline leakage is projected on the w * vector axis; μ A is the mean value of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ A is the standard deviation of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ B The standard deviation of the data obtained after the projection of the buried gas pipeline leakage data on the w * vector axis;
Figure BDA0002632446160000073

在本实施例中,所述根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度的方法包括:设xA为所有y=1的样本数据总和,ZA为xA在w*向量轴的投影,设当前数据为xc,即Zc=w*xc;当wxc≤μAA时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为0;当wxc≥μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为1;当μAA≤wxc≤μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为:

Figure BDA0002632446160000074
其中,H(ZC|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,ZC的条件熵;H(μB|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,μB的条件熵;埋地燃气管道危险度V越小表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越小,埋地燃气管道危险度V越大表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越大。In this embodiment, the method for obtaining the leakage risk degree of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding position in real time according to the leakage risk model of the buried gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline includes: setting x A as all y = 1 sum of sample data, Z A is the projection of x A on the w * vector axis, set the current data to be x c , that is, Zc = w * x c ; when wx c ≤ μ A + δ A , the buried gas pipeline The risk degree V is 0; when wx c ≥ μ BB , the buried gas pipeline risk degree V is 1; when μ AA ≤wx c ≤μ BB , the buried gas pipeline risk degree V is:
Figure BDA0002632446160000074
Among them, H(Z C | Z A ) is the conditional entropy of Z C under the given Z A condition; H(μ B | Z A ) is the conditional entropy of μ B under the given Z A condition; The smaller the risk degree V of the gas pipeline is, the smaller the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is, and the higher the risk degree V of the buried gas pipeline is, the greater the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is.

在本实施例中,埋地燃气管道危险度V为从0到1范围的数,越接近0表示危险度越小,越接近1表示危险度越大,用户可根据危险度大小进行预防性维护。In this embodiment, the risk V of the buried gas pipeline is a number ranging from 0 to 1. The closer to 0, the lower the risk, and the closer to 1, the greater the risk. The user can perform preventive maintenance according to the risk. .

在本实施例中,所述根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略的方法包括:根据埋地燃气管道危险度控制巡检时间间隔,即T=VT1+(1-V)T0;T为当前埋地燃气管道在当前危险度V下应当采用的巡检时间间隔,T0对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为0时的基准巡检时间间隔,T1为对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为1时的基准巡检时间间隔。In this embodiment, the method for generating a preventive maintenance strategy according to the leakage risk degree of buried gas pipelines at a corresponding location includes: controlling the inspection time interval according to the risk degree of buried gas pipelines, that is, T=VT 1 +(1-V ) T 0 ; T is the inspection time interval that the current buried gas pipeline should adopt under the current risk degree V, T 0 is the reference inspection time interval when the risk degree V is 0 for the current buried gas pipeline, and T 1 is For the current buried gas pipeline, it is the benchmark inspection time interval when the risk degree V is 1.

在本实施例中,危险度V>γ时,启动预警,进行全面巡检。γ为预警阈值,范围为0.3-0.4,用户可以自主在该范围内选择阈值设置,以上预警阈值取值范围合理,很好地在避免虚报和避免漏报之间进行了折衷。In this embodiment, when the risk degree V>γ, an early warning is activated and a comprehensive inspection is performed. γ is the early warning threshold, and the range is 0.3-0.4. The user can choose the threshold setting within this range. The above warning threshold is in a reasonable range, which is a good compromise between avoiding false alarms and avoiding false alarms.

实施例2Example 2

图2是本发明的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法的流程图。FIG. 2 is a flow chart of the method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines according to the present invention.

在实施例1的基础上,如图2所示,本实施例提供一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法,其包括:采集数据并发送至云服务器和/或处理器模块;云服务器和/或处理器模块根据数据判断埋地燃气管道危险度。On the basis of Embodiment 1, as shown in FIG. 2 , this embodiment provides a method for predicting leakage risk of buried gas pipelines, which includes: collecting data and sending it to a cloud server and/or a processor module; the cloud server and /or the processor module judges the danger of the buried gas pipeline according to the data.

在本实施例中,所述云服务器和/或处理器模块适于采用如实施例1所提供的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法判断埋地燃气管道危险度。In this embodiment, the cloud server and/or the processor module are adapted to use the buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm as provided in Embodiment 1 to determine the buried gas pipeline risk.

综上所述,本发明能够克服由人工根据监测数据进行埋地燃气管道泄漏危险判断和预警具有主观性强、随意性大的缺点,并且有利于对埋地燃气管道泄漏事故进行提前防护和预测性维护,相对于事后维护,预测性维护具有更好的经济性,同时降低了埋地燃气管道维护的人力成本。To sum up, the present invention can overcome the shortcomings of strong subjectivity and randomness in the manual judgment and early warning of buried gas pipeline leakage based on monitoring data, and is conducive to early protection and prediction of buried gas pipeline leakage accidents. Compared with post-event maintenance, predictive maintenance is more economical, and at the same time reduces the labor cost of buried gas pipeline maintenance.

在本申请所提供的几个实施例中,应该理解到,所揭露的系统和方法,也可以通过其它的方式实现。以上所描述的系统实施例仅仅是示意性的,例如,附图中的流程图和框图显示了根据本发明的多个实施例的系统、方法和计算机程序产品的可能实现的体系架构、功能和操作。在这点上,流程图或框图中的每个方框可以代表一个模块、程序段或代码的一部分,所述模块、程序段或代码的一部分包含一个或多个用于实现规定的逻辑功能的可执行指令。也应当注意,在有些作为替换的实现方式中,方框中所标注的功能也可以以不同于附图中所标注的顺序发生。例如,两个连续的方框实际上可以基本并行地执行,它们有时也可以按相反的顺序执行,这依所涉及的功能而定。也要注意的是,框图和/或流程图中的每个方框、以及框图和/或流程图中的方框的组合,可以用执行规定的功能或动作的专用的基于硬件的系统来实现,或者可以用专用硬件与计算机指令的组合来实现。In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed system and method can also be implemented in other manners. The system embodiments described above are merely illustrative, for example, the flowcharts and block diagrams in the Figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and possible implementations of systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present invention. operate. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code that contains one or more functions for implementing the specified logical function(s) executable instructions. It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It is also noted that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustrations, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustrations, can be implemented in dedicated hardware-based systems that perform the specified functions or actions , or can be implemented in a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

另外,在本发明各个实施例中的各功能模块可以集成在一起形成一个独立的部分,也可以是各个模块单独存在,也可以两个或两个以上模块集成形成一个独立的部分。In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated to form an independent part, or each module may exist independently, or two or more modules may be integrated to form an independent part.

所述功能如果以软件功能模块的形式实现并作为独立的产品销售或使用时,可以存储在一个计算机可读取存储介质中。基于这样的理解,本发明的技术方案本质上或者说对现有技术做出贡献的部分或者该技术方案的部分可以以软件产品的形式体现出来,该计算机软件产品存储在一个存储介质中,包括若干指令用以使得一台计算机设备(可以是个人计算机,服务器,或者网络设备等)执行本发明各个实施例所述方法的全部或部分步骤。而前述的存储介质包括:U盘、移动硬盘、只读存储器(ROM,Read-Only Memory)、随机存取存储器(RAM,Random Access Memory)、磁碟或者光盘等各种可以存储程序代码的介质。If the functions are implemented in the form of software function modules and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention can be embodied in the form of a software product in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including Several instructions are used to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods described in the various embodiments of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, Read-Only Memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), Random Access Memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes .

以上述依据本发明的理想实施例为启示,通过上述的说明内容,相关工作人员完全可以在不偏离本项发明技术思想的范围内,进行多样的变更以及修改。本项发明的技术性范围并不局限于说明书上的内容,必须要根据权利要求范围来确定其技术性范围。Taking the above ideal embodiments according to the present invention as inspiration, and through the above description, relevant personnel can make various changes and modifications without departing from the technical idea of the present invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the content in the specification, and the technical scope must be determined according to the scope of the claims.

Claims (9)

1.一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,包括:1. a buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm, is characterized in that, comprises: 采集数据;Data collection; 根据相应数据建立相应向量;Create a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data; 根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型;Build the leakage risk model of buried gas pipelines according to the corresponding vectors; 根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度;According to the leakage risk model of the buried gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline, the leakage risk of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding position can be obtained in real time; 根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略。Generate preventive maintenance strategies based on the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines at corresponding locations. 2.如权利要求1所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,2. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 1, characterized in that, 所述采集数据的方法包括:The method for collecting data includes: 采集应力值、PH值,并根据相应应力值、PH值计算应力变化率、PH值变化率,即Collect the stress value and pH value, and calculate the stress change rate and pH value change rate according to the corresponding stress value and pH value, namely 所述应力变化率为:
Figure FDA0002632446150000011
The rate of change of the stress is:
Figure FDA0002632446150000011
所述PH值变化率为:
Figure FDA0002632446150000012
The rate of change of the pH value is:
Figure FDA0002632446150000012
其中,F0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的应力测量平均值,Fi为第i个记录的应力值,FRi为第i个记录的应力变化率,PH0j为埋地燃气管道刚刚安装或确认管道状态为正常时的对应第j个节点的PH值测量平均值,PHi为第i个记录的PH值,PHRi为第i个记录的PH值变化率。Among them, F 0j is the average stress measurement of the corresponding jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, F i is the stress value of the ith record, and FR i is the stress of the ith record. Rate of change, PH 0j is the measured average value of the pH value of the jth node when the buried gas pipeline is just installed or the state of the pipeline is confirmed to be normal, PH i is the pH value of the i-th record, and PHR i is the i-th record. rate of change in pH.
3.如权利要求2所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,3. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 2, characterized in that, 所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法包括:The method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data includes: 对特征应力变化率FRi,PH值变化率PHRi进行量化,量化间隔为0.1,且埋地燃气管道使用时间按年份取整。The characteristic stress change rate FR i and the PH value change rate PHR i are quantified, and the quantification interval is 0.1, and the use time of the buried gas pipeline is rounded according to the year. 4.如权利要求3所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,4. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 3, characterized in that, 所述根据相应数据建立相应向量的方法还包括:The method for establishing a corresponding vector according to the corresponding data also includes: 建立数据向量:x=(x(1),x(2),x(3));Create a data vector: x=(x (1) , x (2) , x (3) ); 建立系数向量:w=(w(1),w(2),w(3));Establish coefficient vector: w = (w (1) , w (2) , w (3) ); 构建最优化模型,即Build the optimal model, that is
Figure FDA0002632446150000021
Figure FDA0002632446150000021
S.t yi(w.xi+b)≥1-ξiSt y i (wx i +b)≥1-ξ i ; ξi≥0 i=1,2,......,N;ξ i ≥ 0 i=1,2,...,N; 其中,x(1)为量化后的应力变化率,x(2)为量化后的PH值变化率,x(3)为量化后的燃气管道使用时间,向量w的分量是向量x相应分量的系数,C为惩罚系数;xi为第i个训练数据向量;yi为xi的类标记,当yi为-1时表示埋地燃气管道出现泄露,当yi为1时表示埋地燃气管道状态正常;N为训练数据数目;ξ为松弛变量;ξi为第i个训练数据的松弛变量;b为偏置;Among them, x (1) is the quantized stress change rate, x (2) is the quantized PH value change rate, x (3) is the quantized gas pipeline service time, and the component of the vector w is the corresponding component of the vector x. coefficient, C is the penalty coefficient; xi is the ith training data vector; yi is the class label of xi , when yi is -1, it means that the buried gas pipeline leaks, and when yi is 1, it means buried The gas pipeline is in normal state; N is the number of training data; ξ is the slack variable; ξ i is the slack variable of the i-th training data; b is the bias; 则最优化模型的解为:w*Then the solution of the optimal model is: w * ;
Figure FDA0002632446150000022
Figure FDA0002632446150000022
其中,w*为最优分类超平面的法向量;
Figure FDA0002632446150000024
为拉格朗日乘子向量中对偶问题的解的第i个元素。
Among them, w * is the normal vector of the optimal classification hyperplane;
Figure FDA0002632446150000024
is the ith element of the solution to the dual problem in the vector of Lagrangian multipliers.
5.如权利要求4所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,5. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 4, characterized in that, 所述根据相应向量构建埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型的方法包括:The method for constructing a leakage risk model of buried gas pipelines according to corresponding vectors includes: 获取应力值、PH值在法向量上进行投影后所得到的数据,出现埋地燃气管道泄露与埋地燃气管道状态正常两个数据类别的均值与方差,即Obtain the data obtained by projecting the stress value and PH value on the normal vector, and the mean and variance of the two data categories of leakage of buried gas pipeline and normal state of buried gas pipeline, namely
Figure FDA0002632446150000023
Figure FDA0002632446150000023
Figure FDA0002632446150000031
Figure FDA0002632446150000031
Figure FDA0002632446150000032
Figure FDA0002632446150000032
Figure FDA0002632446150000033
Figure FDA0002632446150000033
其中,NA为类别y=1的样本数;NB为类别y=-1的样本数;μB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;μA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的均值;δA为埋地燃气管道状态正常数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;δB为出现埋地燃气管道泄露数据在w*向量轴投影后所得到的数据的标准差;Among them, NA is the number of samples of category y = 1; NB is the number of samples of category y=-1; μ B is the mean value of the data obtained after the data of buried gas pipeline leakage is projected on the w * vector axis; μ A is the mean value of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ A is the standard deviation of the data obtained after the normal data of the buried gas pipeline state is projected on the w * vector axis; δ B The standard deviation of the data obtained after the projection of the buried gas pipeline leakage data on the w * vector axis;
Figure FDA0002632446150000034
Figure FDA0002632446150000034
6.如权利要求5所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,6. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 5, characterized in that, 所述根据埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度模型和埋地燃气管道上相应位置的参数,以实时获取相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度的方法包括:The method for obtaining the leakage risk degree of the buried gas pipeline at the corresponding position in real time according to the leakage risk model of the buried gas pipeline and the parameters of the corresponding position on the buried gas pipeline includes: 设xA为所有y=1的样本数据总和,ZA为xA在w*向量轴的投影,设当前数据为xc,即Let x A be the sum of all y=1 sample data, Z A is the projection of x A on the w * vector axis, and let the current data be x c , that is Zc=w*xcZc=w * xc ; 当wxc≤μAA时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为0;When wx c ≤μ AA , the risk degree V of buried gas pipeline is 0; 当wxc≥μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为1;When wx c ≥ μ BB , the risk degree V of buried gas pipeline is 1; 当μAA≤wxc≤μBB时,埋地燃气管道危险度V为:
Figure FDA0002632446150000035
When μ AA ≤wx c ≤μ BB , the risk degree V of buried gas pipeline is:
Figure FDA0002632446150000035
其中,H(ZC|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,ZC的条件熵;Among them, H(Z C |Z A ) is the conditional entropy of Z C under the condition of given Z A ; H(μB|ZA)为在给定ZA条件下,μB的条件熵;H(μ B |Z A ) is the conditional entropy of μ B under a given Z A condition; 埋地燃气管道危险度V越小表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越小,埋地燃气管道危险度V越大表示埋地燃气管道泄露概率越大。The smaller the risk degree V of the buried gas pipeline is, the lower the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is, and the higher the risk degree V of the buried gas pipeline is, the greater the leakage probability of the buried gas pipeline is.
7.如权利要求6所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法,其特征在于,7. The buried gas pipeline leakage risk prediction algorithm according to claim 6, characterized in that, 所述根据相应位置埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度生成预防性维护策略的方法包括:The method for generating a preventive maintenance strategy according to the leakage risk of a buried gas pipeline at a corresponding location includes: 根据埋地燃气管道危险度控制巡检时间间隔,即The inspection time interval is controlled according to the risk degree of the buried gas pipeline, namely T=VT1+(1-V)T0T=VT 1 +(1-V)T 0 ; T为当前埋地燃气管道在当前危险度V下应当采用的巡检时间间隔,T0对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为0时的基准巡检时间间隔,T1为对当前埋地燃气管道为危险度V为1时的基准巡检时间间隔。T is the inspection time interval that should be used for the current buried gas pipeline under the current risk degree V, T 0 is the reference inspection time interval for the current buried gas pipeline when the risk degree V is 0, and T 1 is the current buried gas pipeline. The gas pipeline is the reference inspection time interval when the risk degree V is 1. 8.一种埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法,其特征在于,包括:8. A method for predicting the leakage risk of buried gas pipelines, comprising: 采集数据并发送至云服务器和/或处理器模块;Collect data and send to cloud server and/or processor module; 云服务器和/或处理器模块根据数据判断埋地燃气管道危险度。The cloud server and/or the processor module judges the danger level of the buried gas pipeline according to the data. 9.如权利要求8所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测方法,其特征在于,9. The method for predicting leakage risk of buried gas pipelines according to claim 8, wherein, 所述云服务器和/或处理器模块适于采用如权利要求1-7任一项所述的埋地燃气管道泄漏危险度预测算法判断埋地燃气管道危险度。The cloud server and/or the processor module are suitable for judging the risk degree of the buried gas pipeline by adopting the leakage risk degree prediction algorithm of the buried gas pipeline according to any one of claims 1-7.
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