CN111951553A - Prediction method based on traffic big data platform and mesoscopic simulation model - Google Patents

Prediction method based on traffic big data platform and mesoscopic simulation model Download PDF

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CN111951553A
CN111951553A CN202010825580.3A CN202010825580A CN111951553A CN 111951553 A CN111951553 A CN 111951553A CN 202010825580 A CN202010825580 A CN 202010825580A CN 111951553 A CN111951553 A CN 111951553A
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吴超腾
高霄
沈丹凤
蔡章辉
张璐
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Abstract

The invention is suitable for the field of traffic information service and application, and provides a mesoscopic traffic simulation prediction method based on a big data platform, which comprises the following steps: the system comprises a big data platform construction module, a simulation basic platform construction module, an OD detection module, an OD correction module, a flow velocity model calibration module, a state estimation module and a deduction module based on Kalman filtering. The simulation system can fully utilize and mine the value of multi-source data, improve the data precision of OD and traffic flow based on data fusion and error estimation, provide a basis for restoration and prediction of traffic states based on supply and demand, and realize traffic flow simulation deduction under short-term and control conditions.

Description

Prediction method based on traffic big data platform and mesoscopic simulation model
Technical Field
The invention relates to a traffic prediction method based on a traffic big data platform and a mesoscopic simulation model, and belongs to the technical field of intelligent traffic information service and application.
Background
In order to solve the problems of traffic jam, environmental pollution and the like caused by the demand generated in the economic development process and the increase of the reserved quantity of cars, various traffic management departments build a large number of traffic guidance and management systems. On one hand, the system construction improves the efficiency of management and control measures such as traffic operation on-line monitoring, traffic guidance, ramp management and the like; on the other hand, massive traffic flow and traffic accident information are accumulated. Due to the cause of traffic congestion, the balance of traffic supply and demand caused by the need of traffic planning and traffic design for relieving and solving, and the seamless cooperation of each traffic management system, the problem of traffic congestion which can be solved or relieved by only depending on a single traffic management system is very limited. In order to provide quantitative decision basis for traffic organization management, traffic event early warning and evaluation, traffic infrastructure planning construction and traffic policy feasibility analysis research in traffic planning, design and refined cooperation management, traffic flow and service management data resources of each traffic management platform need to be integrated, a real traffic system and a management scheme are integrated and modeled based on a traffic simulation model, the effect of various measures is predicted and evaluated, and then basis is provided for decision.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: decisions in traffic planning, traffic design and collaborative management are based on experience and have no quantitative scientific basis.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme of the invention is to provide a modeling and predicting method based on a traffic big data platform and a mesoscopic simulation model, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps of acquiring a training set for training a mesoscopic simulation model by using a traffic big data platform, and predicting the traffic state of the trained mesoscopic simulation model based on data acquired by the traffic big data platform in real time, wherein:
the construction of the observation simulation model and the prediction by using the observation simulation model comprise the following steps:
step 1, model selection
Introduction of the mesoscopic modelThe traffic flow discrete state equation shown in the following formula (1) and formula (2) divides the whole road into N sections of road sections, and the length of the ith section of road section is deltaiThe head and tail ends of each road section are respectively provided with a traffic detector to provide measured traffic flow q in a detection period Ti(k) Average velocity vi(k) Data as input to the mesoscopic model, qi(k) Traffic flow, v, for the i-th to i + 1-th route section at time kTi(k) The average speed of the traffic flow space at the kT time of the ith road section comprises the following components:
qi(k)＝αρi(k)vi(k)+(1-α)ρi+1(k)vi+1(k) (1)
Figure BDA0002636087430000021
Figure BDA0002636087430000022
Figure BDA0002636087430000023
Figure BDA0002636087430000024
in formulas (1), (2), (3), (4): rhoi(k) The density of the traffic flow at the kT moment of the ith road section; r isi(k) The flow rate of the on-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road section; si(k) The flowrate of the off-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road segment; v. offRepresenting the free-running speed of the traffic flow; rhocrRepresenting the critical density, namely the density of the traffic flow when the traffic flow reaches the maximum; b. tau, gamma, lambda and alpha are adjustment coefficients of the equation; ρ represents a density; v (ρ) represents a velocity;
step 2, state estimation model
And (3) estimating the error by adopting a Kalman filter, wherein for a nonlinear system:
x(k+1)＝f[x(k)]+Г[x(k)]w(k) (5)
y(k+1)＝h[x(k+1)]+v(k+1) (6)
in the formulas (5) and (6), w (k), v (k) are zero mean noise vectors
Figure BDA0002636087430000025
Figure BDA0002636087430000026
Q (k) is the system noise variance matrix, R (k) measures the noise matrix; r [ x (k)]Is a noise drive matrix; x (k) is a state variable; y (k) is an observed value; f [ x (k)]Is a macroscopic traffic flow model value; h [ x (k)]Is an observation model value;
will be originally systematic in
Figure BDA0002636087430000027
The process is linearized and then carried out,
Figure BDA0002636087430000028
representing the noisy traffic flow model estimate at time k, the resulting extended Kalman filter consists of the following set of recursive equations:
Figure BDA0002636087430000029
Figure BDA00026360874300000210
Figure BDA0002636087430000031
Figure BDA0002636087430000032
Figure BDA0002636087430000033
wherein:
Figure BDA0002636087430000034
Figure BDA0002636087430000035
in the formulae (7) to (13),
Figure BDA0002636087430000036
the estimated value of the traffic flow model with noise at the moment k;
Figure BDA0002636087430000037
the traffic flow model estimation value with noise at the next moment k +1 is obtained;
Figure BDA0002636087430000038
is the traffic flow model at time k;
Figure BDA0002636087430000039
an observation model estimation value with noise at the moment k;
Figure BDA00026360874300000310
to observe the model at time k; k (K +1) is the Kalman gain at the next moment K + 1; y (k) is an observed value at time k; p (k +1| k) is the system state transition covariance matrix when transitioning from time k to the next time k + 1; r (k +1) is an observation noise matrix at the next moment k + 1; p (k) is a state transition covariance matrix at time k; q (k +1) is a system noise variance matrix at the next moment k + 1; x is the number of1(k),…,x2N(k) Values of variables for each state; f. of1,…,f6The Jacobian matrix value of the traffic flow model is obtained; h is1、h2Is the Jacobian matrix value of the observation model;
Figure BDA00026360874300000311
for each state variable estimate at the transition from time k to the next time k + 1;
given the initial filtered value
Figure BDA00026360874300000312
After the covariance matrix P (0) is initially filtered, gradually calculating according to the calculation sequence of the determined recursion algorithm, and estimating the system state;
step 3, taking the traffic density of the N sections of road sections at the moment k and the traffic speed of the N sections of road sections at the moment k as state variables xn(k) N is 1,2, …,2N, using measured values of the flow and average speed of the head end of the first road section in the N sections of road sections as input quantities, and using the density and average speed of the nth road section in the N sections of road sections as output quantities, thereby constructing a training set to perform parameter calibration on the mesoscopic model;
step 4, calibrating parameters of an observation dynamic flow model in the traffic flow:
parameter rho of the mesoscopic modelcr、vfAnd b, learning by using an online learning method according to a flow density formula:
Figure BDA0002636087430000041
according to the actually measured flow and speed data, the rho is learned through a genetic algorithmcr、vfB, the value of;
and 5: the view dynamic model of the traffic flow obtains the evolution of the traffic flow on the road in time and space;
step 6: calculating an observation model:
firstly, an observation matrix is calculated, and then the observation matrix is multiplied by a state variable to obtain an observation estimated value
Figure BDA0002636087430000045
And 7: calculating a state transition matrix F:
Figure BDA0002636087430000042
wherein
Figure BDA0002636087430000043
Figure BDA0002636087430000044
And 8: the values of the state transition covariance matrix Q, the observed noise variance matrix R are determined, and the initial values of the state covariance matrix P are determined, which are generally assigned empirically.
And step 9: performing extended Kalman Filter calculation: performing iterative computation of extended Kalman filtering according to equations (5) to (13) in the extended Kalman filtering EKF state estimation principle to obtain a final solution;
step 10: the OD and the traffic capacity in a future period are estimated based on the influence analysis and calibration of traffic accidents and control measures, and the traffic state in the future period can be predicted by repeating the processes.
Preferably, the construction of the traffic big data platform comprises the following steps:
step 1, automatic modeling of a simulation area road network and a traffic improvement scheme traffic simulation scene based on a standardized map layer: establishing an integrated data standard according to a human-vehicle-road-traffic environment to generate a unified road network GIS layer; modeling traffic scheme scene data such as traffic organization, induction, management and control and the like, and performing spatial association with a road object;
step 2, designing a standardized layer based on the converged traffic demand, traffic flow data and vehicle data, and extracting, converting and loading scattered, isolated and irregular collected data of each platform to form uniform, standard and layered dynamic original data;
step 3, aiming at the data loss, inconsistency and error problem characteristics in the dynamic original data, combining data conditions, designing a data quality index and a discrimination method, realizing comprehensive identification on the data quality problem, and repairing the problem data based on the spatial correlation and node conservative principle to form complete, consistent and accurate dynamic data;
step 4, establishing a micro, mesoscopic and mesoscopic index system for simulation input and output, uniformly defining each index, and designing a standardized processing method for each index;
step 5, designing a simulation basic platform to build for an actual simulation modeling prediction scene, verifying the platform precision, and finally realizing index output and application flow;
and 6, designing a service scene, and butting simulation output and user requirements.
Compared with the prior art, the traffic simulation prediction method provided by the invention utilizes the relation between traffic supply and demand and road section observed quantity on the basis of fully utilizing and mining the value of multi-source data, generates road network traffic demand, traffic flow indexes and OD (origin-destination) data on the basis of partial detection data, realizes short, medium and long-term traffic flow prediction under the condition of no intervention and various control conditions, and evaluates the effects of various schemes.
Other beneficial effects brought by the traffic simulation method also comprise the following contents:
(1) fully dig according to current facility potentiality, effectively reduce government's traffic foundation investment, turn to the higher traffic control level of "prevention": the current situation and the traffic plan are subjected to dynamic traffic simulation, and the optimization scheme of the mesoscopic simulation system is established under the condition of reaching the same target according to the experience of developed foreign cities, so that the time can be saved by at least 40%, and the investment can be saved by more than 50%.
(2) Realize intelligent transportation system integration and linkage, helping hand intelligent transportation system construction and development: the modeling is carried out for urban traffic operation, modeling tracking is carried out on each running vehicle, the digitization of the real world is realized, and a tamping foundation is built for an intelligent traffic system.
(3) The transition from passive extensive management to active fine management of traffic: the evaluation of the traffic state is changed from the observation level to the middle microscopic level, the basis of the traffic evaluation can be changed from the original local traffic investigation to the simulation according to the regional road network model, the cost can be effectively saved, and more precise and real-time traffic management can be realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a traffic simulation model scheme based on a big data platform;
FIG. 2 is an algorithm framework;
FIG. 3 is a traffic mesoscopic simulation prediction implementation route;
FIG. 4 is a GIS layer of the expressway network;
FIG. 5 is a GIS layer of the Zhonghuajia region;
FIG. 6 is a diagram of detection device location information;
FIG. 7 is a comparison of license plate matching flow and coil collection flow;
FIG. 8 shows the distribution of license plate OD of an upstream main line;
FIG. 9 shows the distribution of the license plate OD on the upstream ramp;
FIG. 10 is a flow rate calibration;
FIG. 11 is a flow simulation deduction;
fig. 12 is a velocity simulation deduction.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further illustrated with reference to the following specific examples. It should be understood that these examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Further, it should be understood that various changes or modifications of the present invention may be made by those skilled in the art after reading the teaching of the present invention, and such equivalents may fall within the scope of the present invention as defined in the appended claims.
The invention discloses a modeling and predicting method based on a traffic big data platform and a mesoscopic simulation model.
The technical scheme disclosed by the invention comprises the following two aspects:
in a first aspect, the construction of a big data platform comprises the following steps:
step 1, automatically modeling a simulation area road network and a traffic improvement scheme traffic simulation scene based on a standardized map layer. Establishing an integrated data standard according to a human-vehicle-road-traffic environment to generate a unified road network GIS layer; and modeling traffic scheme scene data such as traffic organization, induction, management and control and the like, and performing spatial association with the road object.
And 2, designing a standardized layer based on the converged traffic demand, traffic flow data and vehicle data, and extracting, converting and loading scattered, isolated and irregular collected data of each platform to form uniform, standard and layered dynamic original data.
And 3, aiming at the data loss, inconsistency and error problem characteristics in the dynamic original data, designing a data quality index and a judgment method by combining data conditions, realizing comprehensive identification on the data quality problem, and repairing the problem data based on the spatial correlation and node conservative principle to form complete, consistent and accurate dynamic data.
And 4, establishing a micro, mesoscopic and mesoscopic index system for simulation input and output, uniformly defining each index, and designing a standardized processing method for each index.
And 5, designing a simulation basic platform to build for an actual simulation modeling prediction scene, verifying the platform precision, and finally realizing index output and an application process.
And 6, designing a service scene, and butting simulation output and user requirements.
In a second aspect, a traffic flow simulation deduction method:
step 1, model selection
The mesoscopic model adopts the traffic flow discrete state equation of scholars such as Payne and Papageorgiou, and is shown in the following formula (1) and formula (2). Consider a piece, which is suitably divided into N segments, each segment length ΔiIn the order of hundreds of meters. The head and tail ends of the whole road are provided with traffic detectors which provide measured data as the input of a model, including traffic flow qi(k) Average velocity vi(k) In that respect The detection period T is 10-60 seconds.
qi(k)＝αρi(k)vi(k)+(1-α)ρi+1(k)vi+1(k) (1)
Figure BDA0002636087430000071
Figure BDA0002636087430000072
Figure BDA0002636087430000073
Figure BDA0002636087430000074
In formulas (1), (2), (3), (4): rhoi(k) The density of the traffic flow at the kT moment of the ith road section; v. ofi(k) The space average speed of the traffic flow at the kT moment of the ith road section (note: the space average speed of the traffic flow speed in the invention); q. q.si(k) The traffic flow from the ith road section to the (i +1) th road section at the moment of kT; deltaiThe length is a space sampling length, namely the road section length of the ith road section; r isi(k) The flow rate of the on-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road section; si(k) The flowrate of the off-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road segment; v. offRepresenting the free-running speed of the traffic flow; rhocrRepresenting the critical density, namely the density of the traffic flow when the traffic flow reaches the maximum; b. tau, gamma, lambda and alpha are adjustment coefficients of the equation; ρ represents a density; v (ρ) represents a vehicle speed. Equation (4) is a steady-state traffic flow model describing the speed-density relationship of steady-state traffic flow.
Step 2, state estimation model
Because the collected data has errors, the errors need to be estimated. The Kalman filter is a kind of minimum variance filtering in a linear system, and for a nonlinear system, there are:
x(k+1)＝f[x(k)]+Г[x(k)]w(k) (5)
y(k+1)＝h[x(k+1)]+v(k+1) (6)
in the formulas (5) and (6), w (k), v (k) are zero-mean noise directionAmount of, and
Figure BDA0002636087430000081
Figure BDA0002636087430000082
q (k) is the system noise variance matrix, R (k) measures the noise matrix; r [ x (k)]Is a noise drive matrix; x (k) is a state variable; y (k) is an observed value; f [ x (k)]Is a macroscopic traffic flow model value; h [ x (k)]Is an observation model value.
Will be originally systematic in
Figure BDA0002636087430000083
The process is linearized and then carried out,
Figure BDA0002636087430000084
representing the noisy traffic flow model estimate at time k, resulting in an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) consisting of the following set of recursive equations:
Figure BDA0002636087430000085
Figure BDA0002636087430000086
Figure BDA0002636087430000087
Figure BDA0002636087430000088
Figure BDA0002636087430000089
wherein:
Figure BDA00026360874300000810
Figure BDA00026360874300000811
in the formulae (7) to (13),
Figure BDA00026360874300000812
the estimated value of the traffic flow model with noise at the moment k;
Figure BDA00026360874300000813
the traffic flow model estimation value with noise at the next moment k +1 is obtained;
Figure BDA00026360874300000814
is the traffic flow model at time k;
Figure BDA00026360874300000815
an observation model estimation value with noise at the moment k;
Figure BDA00026360874300000816
to observe the model at time k; k (K +1) is the Kalman gain at the next moment K + 1; y (k) is an observed value at time k; p (k +1| k) is the system state transition covariance matrix when transitioning from time k to the next time k + 1; r (k +1) is an observation noise matrix at the next moment k + 1; p (k) is a state transition covariance matrix at time k; q (k +1) is a system noise variance matrix at the next moment k + 1; x is the number of1(k),…,x2N(k) Values of variables for each state; f. of1,…,f6The Jacobian matrix value of the traffic flow model is obtained; h is1、h2Is the Jacobian matrix value of the observation model;
Figure BDA0002636087430000091
for each state variable estimate at the transition from time k to the next time k + 1.
Given the initial filtered value
Figure BDA0002636087430000092
And after the initial filtering covariance matrix P (0), the calculation order of the recursion algorithm is:
Figure BDA0002636087430000093
P(0)->p (1|0) and
Figure BDA0002636087430000094
and
Figure BDA0002636087430000095
and P (2|1) ->… …, so that the calculation can be step by step, the estimation of the system state can be carried out, and the recursion equation can be realized on line.
Step 3, algorithm framework
Taking an express way with three equal-length road sections, an entrance ramp and an exit ramp as an example, the traffic flow state estimation algorithm framework is explained in detail with reference to fig. 2.
The road section has 3 road sections and 4 cross sections. Only the head end of the first link (i.e., section 1) and the end of the third link (i.e., section 4) are equipped with detection devices that provide flow, average speed detection data as input and output quantities (observed values) of the traffic flow state estimation problem. Taking measured values of the flow q0 and the average speed v0 at the section 1 (the head end of the first section) as input quantities; taking the density ρ of the section 4 (end of the third road section)3Average velocity v3The measured value of (d) is used as the output quantity. The purpose of the traffic flow state estimation is to accurately estimate the traffic variable value of the road section without the detector in the middle, such as the speed, the density and the flow at the section 1 and the section 2, through filtering operation according to the measured value of the detector.
According to the mathematical model of the extended kalman filter and the mesoscopic traffic dynamics model, there are 6 state variables x (k) which are:
Figure BDA0002636087430000096
there are 4 input variables, which are:
Figure BDA0002636087430000097
where ρ is1(k)、ρ2(k)、ρ3(k) The traffic flow densities of the first road section, the second road section and the third road section at the moment k are respectively; v. of1(k)、v2(k)、v3(k) The traffic flow speed of the first road section, the second road section and the third road section at the moment k respectively is unknown, and what the model needs to solve is rho at each moment1、ρ2、ρ3、v1、v2、v3The value is obtained. v. of0(k) And q is0(k) The velocity and flow at the section 1 are known as observed values. r (k) and s (k) are the ratios of the traffic flows on the on-ramp and on the off-ramp, which are derived from past historical data and experience, and these four variables are used as inputs to the model.
And 4, step 4: calibrating parameters of an observation dynamic flow model in traffic flow:
the traffic flow model used in this study is rich in superparameters, including ρcr、vfB, τ, γ, λ, α, etc., where the 3 key parameters that have significant impact on the model are: rhocr、vfAnd b, because the 3 parameters determine the traffic capacity, the values of the parameters of the dynamic model in the traffic flow are greatly different for two different states of congestion and unblocked, and therefore an online learning method is needed for parameter learning.
According to the flow density formula:
Figure BDA0002636087430000101
rho can be learned through a genetic algorithm according to the actually measured flow and speed data of the previous 30 minutescr、vfB, value of b.
And 5: calculating the evolution process of the traffic flow: according to the above-mentioned traffic flow mesoscopic dynamic model, the time-space evolution of the traffic flow on the road can be obtained, which is:
Figure BDA0002636087430000102
Figure BDA0002636087430000103
Figure BDA0002636087430000104
Figure BDA0002636087430000105
Figure BDA0002636087430000111
Figure BDA0002636087430000112
in equations (14) to (19), Δ is a calculation time interval.
Step 6: calculating an observation model:
firstly, an observation matrix is calculated:
Figure BDA0002636087430000113
then multiplying the observation matrix by the state variable to obtain an observation estimated value
Figure BDA0002636087430000117
And 7: calculating a state transition matrix F:
Figure BDA0002636087430000114
wherein
Figure BDA0002636087430000115
Figure BDA0002636087430000116
And 8: the values of the state transition covariance matrix Q, the observed noise variance matrix R are determined, and the initial values of the state covariance matrix P are determined, which are generally assigned empirically.
And step 9: performing extended Kalman Filter calculation: and (3) performing iterative computation of the extended Kalman filtering according to the equations (5) to (13) in the extended Kalman filtering EKF state estimation principle to obtain a final solution.
Step 10: the OD and the traffic capacity in a future period are estimated based on the influence analysis and calibration of traffic accidents and control measures, and the traffic state in the future period can be predicted by repeating the processes.
The invention is further illustrated below by a specific example:
the method comprises the following steps of a first stage, big data platform construction and simulation input data processing:
step 1, building a simulation initial platform, including two aspects of a road network and a service scene. And extracting the road network range from the GIS layer as a simulation model road network modeling construction according to the road network range of the simulation actual region. The GIS layer comprises element contents such as road sections, nodes, intersections, steering relations and the like, and is uniformly converted according to element definitions based on the navigation node layer. The simulation scene is provided or researched and obtained by a user according to the user requirements, and generally comprises traffic events or traffic control strategies such as traffic guidance, ramp control, road construction and restriction. Taking the control simulation of the Hujia regional ramp in the expressway as an example, as shown in fig. 4 and 5, the road network modeling can be completed by extracting the corresponding spatial part from the unified GIS layer of the expressway according to the spatial range of the service scene.
And 2, verifying and perfecting the simulation platform. The method comprises the steps of on the basis of converging and processing traffic demand (OD data), traffic flow data and a road network model which are subjected to quality control by a large data platform, verifying and correcting an initial OD (origin-destination) based on the relation between the traffic demand and road section flow, the relation between flow-density-speed and the relation between traffic flow evolution and road section speed change, calibrating the relation between flow density and speed, and estimating and correcting road section speed and errors based on a traffic distribution-path selection-deduction model.
For the Zhonghuajia area as an example, license plate recognition devices are arranged at the entrance and exit of a main line of the area and on upper and lower ramps, and annular coils and radar traffic flow detection devices are arranged at intervals of 200 meters on the main line, and the device distribution is shown in fig. 6. The license plate data can obtain the license plate of a single vehicle, the OD of the region can be obtained through matching, and the section flow and the speed statistical information can be obtained through the annular coil and the radar. The data collected by the equipment are converged to a big data platform according to the flow to be uniformly stored, standardized, quality controlled and index data, and an interface is provided for the simulation model.
Because the license plate data is influenced by weather and illumination environment, the license plate data is lost to a certain extent, the coil and the radar are not influenced by the weather and the illumination environment, the flow acquisition precision is high, and the conditions of the license plate and the coil acquisition flow and errors are shown in figure 7. Therefore, the OD acquired by the license plate is the initial OD, and the high-precision road section flow acquired by the annular coil and the radar is corrected. The OD proportion can be calculated through OD flow of each path of an upstream main line and a ramp by matching license plates on the cross sections of the upstream license plate and the downstream license plate, and the OD flow of the region can be calculated through the flow fusion of the coils, which is shown in figures 8 and 9.
And in the second stage, deduction model calibration and simulation prediction application:
step 1, test protocol
Taking the Zhonghua Shanghai area as an example, the road section has 5 sections, coil detection devices are uniformly distributed on the sections, and the time period is selected from 3 months in 2020, 16 days in the morning and 6 am: 00-7: 00, measured data comprises the speed, density and flow of 5 sections. The accuracy of the model can be verified by comparing the model estimation value with the actual measurement value, and analyzing the model estimation value, which is obtained by operating the traffic flow state estimation model with the measurement speed and flow rate of the sections 1, 3, 4, and 5 in fig. 1 as the input of the model and the measurement speed and density of the section 2 as the observed value of the model, and with the time interval of 20 seconds in 1 hour.
Step 2, calibrating model parameters
For this case section, the distance per section is 400m, i.e., Δ is 400 m; the time interval is 20 seconds, namely T is 20 s; the adjustment coefficients of the dynamic model in traffic flow are tau-0.027, gamma-0.9, lambda-1, lambda-5 and alpha-0.97. The other parameter fitting method adopts a genetic algorithm, and the calibration steps are as follows:
step a1, determining lane traffic flow parameter initial population, the population size is 20, as shown in the following table:
Figure BDA0002636087430000131
step a2, determining a fitness function, and fitting speed and actual speed standard deviation by using a traffic flow model.
Figure BDA0002636087430000132
Wherein λ (i, d) is fitness, i is lane number, d is date, t is time stamp, n is sample time sequence number in one day, V (i, t) is actual acquisition speed, V (i, t) is time sequence number in one day, and′and (i, t) fitting the speed by using a traffic flow model.
Step a3, determining a population update rule, retaining 5 population samples with the highest fitness value, eliminating 5 population samples with the lowest fitness value, and randomly generating 5 new population samples. For the 10 samples with fitness values in the middle, the parameters were averaged pairwise across to yield 10 samples.
Step a4, according to the population updating rule, model iteration;
step a5, determining iteration termination conditions, wherein the difference value of the model parameter with the lowest fitness value in the previous and subsequent times is smaller than a specified value, the difference value of the free flow speed is smaller than 1, the difference value of the critical density is smaller than 1, the difference value of the index parameter is smaller than 0.05, and the result is output and updated to a database.
Step a5, outputting the fitting result
For this section, the vehicle speed v learned in the congestion time sectionf Critical density ρ 80 ═ 80cr＝50、b＝1.8。
Step 3, model precision evaluation
Fig. 2 is a comparison between the density extended kalman filter model value and the measured value of the traffic flow of section 2 in fig. 1. The abscissa is time, from 6 months 6, 17 days 6: 00 start, 6 month by 2019, 17 day 7: 00 ends with a time interval of 20 seconds. The ordinate is the density of the section of the traffic flow, the blue solid line is the coil measured value, the red dotted line is the extended kalman filter estimated reduction value, and it can be seen from the figure that the trends of the two are relatively close and consistent, and meanwhile, according to the calculation, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between the model value and the measured value is 6.2, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 7.8.
Fig. 3 is a comparison of the model estimated value and the observed value of the traffic flow velocity at the section 3 in fig. 1. The abscissa is time, from 6 months 6, 17 days 6: 00 start, 6 month by 2019, 17 day 7: 00 ends with a time interval of 20 seconds. The ordinate is the density of the section of the traffic flow, the blue solid line is the coil measured value, the red dotted line is the extended kalman filter estimated reduction value, and it can be seen from the figure that the trends of the two are relatively close and consistent, and meanwhile, according to the calculation, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between the model value and the measured value is 3.9, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 7.6.
Step 4, scheme simulation prediction
And according to the service scene, predicting and estimating the traffic state evolution in a future short term or under the traffic control condition based on supply and demand prediction and estimation.

Claims (2)

1. A modeling and prediction method based on a traffic big data platform and a mesoscopic simulation model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps of acquiring a training set for training a mesoscopic simulation model by using a traffic big data platform, and predicting the traffic state of the trained mesoscopic simulation model based on data acquired by the traffic big data platform in real time, wherein:
the construction of the observation simulation model and the prediction by using the observation simulation model comprise the following steps:
step 1, model selection
The mesoscopic model divides the whole road into N sections of road sections by adopting traffic flow discrete state equations shown in the following formulas (1) and (2), and the length of the ith section of road section is deltaiThe head and tail ends of each road section are respectively provided with a traffic detector to provide measured traffic flow q in a detection period Ti(k) Average velocity vi(k) Data as input to the mesoscopic model, qi(k) Traffic flow, v, for the i-th to i + 1-th route section at time kTi(k) The average speed of the traffic flow space at the kT time of the ith road section comprises the following components:
qi(k)＝αρi(k)vi(k)+(1-α)ρi+1(k)vi+1(k) (1)
Figure FDA0002636087420000011
Figure FDA0002636087420000012
Figure FDA0002636087420000013
in formulas (1), (2), (3), (4): rhoi(k) The density of the traffic flow at the kT moment of the ith road section; r isi(k) The flow rate of the on-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road section; si(k) The flowrate of the off-ramp vehicle at the kT time of the ith road segment; v. offRepresenting the free-running speed of the traffic flow; rhocrRepresenting the critical density, namely the density of the traffic flow when the traffic flow reaches the maximum; b. tau, gamma, lambda and alpha are adjustment coefficients of the equation; ρ represents a density; v (ρ) represents a vehicle speed;
step 2, state estimation model
And (3) estimating the error by adopting a Kalman filter, wherein for a nonlinear system:
x(k+1)＝f[x(k)]+[x(k)]w(k) (5)
y(k+1)＝h[x(k+1)]+v(k+1) (6)
in the formulas (5) and (6), w (k), v (k) are zero mean noise vectors
Figure FDA0002636087420000014
Figure FDA0002636087420000015
Q (k) is the system noise variance matrix, R (k) measures the noise matrix; [ x (k)]Is a noise drive matrix; x (k) is a state variable; y (k) is an observed value; f [ x (k)]Is a macroscopic traffic flow model value; h [ x (k)]Is an observation model value;
will be originally systematic in
Figure FDA0002636087420000021
The process is linearized and then carried out,
Figure FDA0002636087420000022
representing the traffic flow model estimate with noise at time k, the resulting extended Kalman filter consists of the following set of recursive equations:
Figure FDA0002636087420000023
Figure FDA0002636087420000024
Figure FDA0002636087420000025
Figure FDA0002636087420000026
Figure FDA0002636087420000027
wherein:
Figure FDA0002636087420000028
Figure FDA0002636087420000029
in the formulae (7) to (13),
Figure FDA00026360874200000210
the estimated value of the traffic flow model with noise at the moment k;
Figure FDA00026360874200000211
the traffic flow model estimation value with noise at the next moment k +1 is obtained;
Figure FDA00026360874200000212
is the traffic flow model at time k;
Figure FDA00026360874200000213
an observation model estimation value with noise at the moment k;
Figure FDA00026360874200000214
to observe the model at time k; k (K +1) is the Kalman gain at the next moment K + 1; y (k) is an observed value at time k; p (k +1| k) is the system state transition covariance matrix when transitioning from time k to the next time k + 1; r (k +1) is an observation noise matrix at the next moment k + 1; p (k) is a state transition covariance matrix at time k;q (k +1) is a system noise variance matrix at the next moment k + 1; x is the number of1(k)，...，x2N(k) Values of variables for each state; f. of1，...，f6The Jacobian matrix value of the traffic flow model is obtained; h is1、h2Is the Jacobian matrix value of the observation model;
Figure FDA0002636087420000031
for each state variable estimate at the transition from time k to the next time k + 1;
given the initial filtered value
Figure FDA0002636087420000032
After the covariance matrix P (0) is initially filtered, gradually calculating according to the calculation sequence of the determined recursion algorithm, and estimating the system state;
step 3, taking the traffic flow density of the N sections of road sections at the moment k and the traffic flow speed of the N sections of road sections at the moment k as state variables xn (k), wherein N is 1, 2N, taking the actual measured values of the flow and the average speed of the head end of the first section of the N sections of road sections as input quantities, and taking the density and the average speed of the N sections of road sections as output quantities, so as to construct a training set to carry out parameter calibration on the observing model;
step 4, calibrating parameters of an observation dynamic flow model in the traffic flow:
parameter rho of the mesoscopic modelcr、vfAnd b, learning by using an online learning method according to a flow density formula:
Figure FDA0002636087420000033
according to the actually measured flow and speed data, the rho is learned through a genetic algorithmcr、vfB, the value of;
and 5: the view dynamic model of the traffic flow obtains the evolution of the traffic flow on the road in time and space;
step 6: calculating an observation model:
firstly, an observation matrix is calculated, and then the observation matrix is multiplied by a state variable to obtain an observation estimated value
Figure FDA0002636087420000037
And 7: calculating a state transition matrix F:
Figure FDA0002636087420000034
wherein
Figure FDA0002636087420000035
Figure FDA0002636087420000036
And 8: the values of the state transition covariance matrix Q, the observed noise variance matrix R are determined, and the initial values of the state covariance matrix P are determined, which are generally assigned empirically.
And step 9: performing extended Kalman Filter calculation: performing iterative computation of extended Kalman filtering according to equations (5) to (13) in the extended Kalman filtering EKF state estimation principle to obtain a final solution;
step 10: the OD and the traffic capacity in a future period are estimated based on the influence analysis and calibration of traffic accidents and control measures, and the traffic state in the future period can be predicted by repeating the processes.
2. The modeling and prediction method based on the traffic big data platform and the mesoscopic simulation model as recited in claim 1, wherein the construction of the traffic big data platform comprises the following steps:
step 1, automatic modeling of a simulation area road network and a traffic improvement scheme traffic simulation scene based on a standardized map layer: establishing an integrated data standard according to a human-vehicle-road-traffic environment to generate a unified road network GIS layer; modeling traffic scheme scene data such as traffic organization, induction, management and control and the like, and performing spatial association with a road object;
step 2, designing a standardized layer based on the converged traffic demand, traffic flow data and vehicle data, and extracting, converting and loading scattered, isolated and irregular collected data of each platform to form uniform, standard and layered dynamic original data;
step 3, aiming at the data loss, inconsistency and error problem characteristics in the dynamic original data, combining data conditions, designing a data quality index and a discrimination method, realizing comprehensive identification on the data quality problem, and repairing the problem data based on the spatial correlation and node conservative principle to form complete, consistent and accurate dynamic data;
step 4, establishing a micro, mesoscopic and mesoscopic index system for simulation input and output, uniformly defining each index, and designing a standardized processing method for each index;
step 5, designing a simulation basic platform to build for an actual simulation modeling prediction scene, verifying the platform precision, and finally realizing index output and application flow;
and 6, designing a service scene, and butting simulation output and user requirements.
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