CN111950867A - Emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution - Google Patents

Emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution Download PDF

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CN111950867A
CN111950867A CN202010723286.1A CN202010723286A CN111950867A CN 111950867 A CN111950867 A CN 111950867A CN 202010723286 A CN202010723286 A CN 202010723286A CN 111950867 A CN111950867 A CN 111950867A
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information
evaluation
matrix
water environment
pollution
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寇蓉蓉
李冬
张雅京
付辉
李睿
魏东洋
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China Japan Friendly Environmental Protection Center Environmental Development Center Of Ministry Of Ecological Environment
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/16—Matrix or vector computation, e.g. matrix-matrix or matrix-vector multiplication, matrix factorization
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10—Services
    • G06Q50/26—Government or public services

Abstract

The invention provides an emergency technical evaluation method for sudden water environment pollution, which specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring pollutant information; evaluating the water environment information result: counting the collected information, integrating the counted information and establishing a corresponding database, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the water environment safety by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the water environment information of the database; acquiring pollutant migration information: deducing migration motion information of the pollutants according to a mass conservation law of the pollutants; emergency treatment; according to the method, based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and an analytic hierarchy process combined with a pollutant migration motion algorithm, the boundary factors which are not easy to quantify are quantified to reflect the risk characteristics, and evaluation element assignment is of great significance for specifically quantifying the applicability of the whole method and the accuracy of an evaluation result.

Description

Emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of water environment protection, in particular to a technical evaluation method for emergent sudden water environment pollution.
Background
The sudden water pollution accident mainly comes from illegal pollution discharge of enterprises, and then is accident leakage of factories, human factors and natural condition damage. With the rapid development of economy in China, sudden water pollution accidents occur more and more frequently; the sudden water pollution event has the characteristic that a large amount of pollutants are discharged suddenly and intensively, which often causes great economic loss and ecological environment damage and seriously affects the life and production of urban residents.
The sudden water pollution accident has serious damage, so that the risk evaluation of the sudden environmental pollution accident is carried out, and the method has important significance for the accident prevention and management and the subsequent accident treatment.
The evaluation methods available in the prior art are divided into three main categories: one is a deterministic evaluation method, which evaluates risk level using deterministic indicators and models based on analysis of the mechanism of environmental risk formation; one type is a probabilistic evaluation method, which forms a probability of single-factor use based on a relative ambiguity of a regional risk formation mechanism or is used for an ambiguous action evaluation method; the second is the determination and probabilistic evaluation combining the first two categories.
However, in the prior art, the record of the evaluation of the sudden environmental pollution accident does not exist, and the method for evaluating the environmental risk of the drainage basin cannot be directly applied to the sudden water pollution accident due to the imperfection of the method.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the existing problems, the invention provides an emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution, and the assessment of the sudden water environment pollution by using the method can provide a powerful basis for subsequent accident prevention, management and subsequent accident treatment, and has important significance.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a technical evaluation method for emergent sudden water environment pollution specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: acquisition of contaminant information
Setting a network-based information acquisition system to rapidly acquire information of a pollutant source, a pollutant type, a pollution area diffusion area and specific environmental parameters;
s2: water environment information result evaluation
Counting the collected information, integrating the counted information and establishing a corresponding database, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the water environment safety by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the water environment information of the database;
s3: acquisition of contaminant migration information
Deducing migration motion information of the pollutants according to a mass conservation law of the pollutants; specifically, the formula is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000021
wherein C is the concentration of the pollutant at the source point (x, y) of the pollutant at the time t, g/L; t is the diffusion time of the contaminant, s; dx、DyIs the diffusion coefficient of the water area in the longitudinal and transverse directions, m2/s；ux、uyRespectively the average flow velocity in the longitudinal and transverse directions of the water area, m/s; k is the degradation coefficient of the pollutant in the water area, s-1(ii) a Sigma S is a pollutant source and a sink item;
s4: emergency treatment
And making an emergency treatment program according to a analytic hierarchy process aiming at the fuzzy evaluation result of S2 and the migration motion information of S3.
Further, the specific step of S1 is: the pollution source and the pollution area are rapidly mastered by adopting a mode of combining manual investigation of the pollution area and regional monitoring stationing information acquisition with a real-time satellite monitoring platform; the method comprises the following steps of (1) mastering pollutant variety information by adopting a sample collection and analysis mode and combining with industrial enterprise information in a pollution area and chemical transportation information in the pollution area; and (4) adopting the recorded information of the climate bureau and the hydrological bureau to master the environmental parameters of the polluted area, wherein the environmental parameters comprise water area environmental parameters and climate environmental parameters.
Furthermore, in the step S1, an environment monitoring system is adopted to realize the collection of regional monitoring stationing information in combination with a real-time satellite monitoring platform; the environment monitoring system specifically comprises a detection host, a real-time monitoring unit module and a remote sensing image data detection unit module which are connected with the host in a distributed manner; the detection host comprises a computer main body and an interaction module arranged on the computer main body; the real-time monitoring unit module specifically comprises a camera module, a water quality detection sensor module and a remote measuring terminal, and the camera module and the water quality detection sensor module are connected with the detection host through the remote measuring terminal; the remote sensing image data detection unit module is a satellite monitoring platform system, in particular to a Beidou satellite remote sensing image monitoring platform system.
Further, the specific step of S2 is: 1) determining a specific water environment information evaluation index, and establishing an information factor set; 2) determining the meaning of each index, dividing the levels, and further establishing a set of evaluation levels; 3) establishing a weight set of each evaluation factor to obtain a fuzzy weight vector; 4) according to the grades divided by the evaluation indexes, establishing membership functions of the qualitative changes to obtain the membership degrees of the indexes, and establishing a fuzzy matrix according to the membership degrees; wherein, different rows in the matrix represent the membership degree of the evaluated object to fuzzy subsets with different levels from different single factors; 5) and (4) performing product on the factor weight and the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector.
Further, the water environment information in step 1) of S2 is specifically the type information of the pollutant, and the set of information is set to be U ═ x1,x2…xnIn the formula, x1,x2…xnRespectively representing measured values of n pollutants monitored by water quality;
the set of evaluation levels established in step 2) of S2 is classified according to "surface water environment quality standard", and the obtained set is V ═ 1,2,3,4,5 }.
Further, the step S4 is specifically:
1) establishing a multi-level element evaluation index system;
2) constructing a judgment matrix: giving a judgment according to the relative importance of each element in multiple layers, and expressing the judgment as a matrix
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000031
3) Calculating the product M of each row element in the matrixi；
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000032
Wherein n is the order of the matrix;
4) calculating the average weight of the index
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000033
Wherein k is k experts;
5) and obtaining a combined weight value set of each index to the final evaluation object by a layer-by-layer product making method:
W*＝{W*,W2*,…,*Wn*}
6) calculating a technical evaluation result by utilizing a leading weighting model:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000041
in the formula: wi *Weighting values for each index; piIs a normalized value of each index.
Further, the judgment matrix needs further consistency check; and (3) calculating a consistency index:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000042
in the formula: CI is a consistency index; n is the order of the weight coefficient matrix; lambda [ alpha ]maxIs the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; when the CI is 0, judging that the matrix is a consistent matrix array; the smaller the CI, the higher the consistency.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. according to the method, based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and an analytic hierarchy process combined with a migration motion algorithm of pollutants, boundary factors which are not easy to quantify are quantified to reflect the characteristics of risks, and evaluation element assignment is of great significance to concrete quantification of the applicability of the whole method and the accuracy of an evaluation result;
2. by utilizing the method, all link factors after the sudden pollution accident occurs can be comprehensively considered, risk assessment can be rapidly carried out according to all link factors, scientific basis is provided for making treatment measures, management decisions and subsequent economic benefits, and the assessment of the sudden water environment pollution can provide a powerful basis for subsequent accident prevention, management and subsequent accident treatment, so that the method has important significance;
Detailed Description
Example (b): a technical evaluation method for emergent sudden water environment pollution specifically comprises the following steps:
s1: acquisition of contaminant information
Setting a network-based information acquisition system to rapidly acquire information of a pollutant source, a pollutant type, a pollution area diffusion area and specific environmental parameters; the method specifically comprises the following steps: the pollution source and the pollution area are rapidly mastered by adopting a mode of combining manual investigation of the pollution area and regional monitoring stationing information acquisition with a real-time satellite monitoring platform; the method comprises the following steps of (1) mastering pollutant variety information by adopting a sample collection and analysis mode and combining with industrial enterprise information in a pollution area and chemical transportation information in the pollution area; adopting the recorded information of the climate bureau and the hydrological bureau to master the environmental parameters of the polluted area, wherein the environmental parameters comprise water area environmental parameters and climate environmental parameters;
s2: water environment information result evaluation
Counting the collected information, integrating the counted information and establishing a corresponding database, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the water environment safety by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the water environment information of the database; the method specifically comprises the following steps: 1) determining a specific water environment information evaluation index, and establishing an information factor set; 2) determining the meaning of each index, dividing the levels, and further establishing a set of evaluation levels; 3) establishing a weight set of each evaluation factor to obtain a fuzzy weight vector; 4) according to the grades divided by the evaluation indexes, establishing membership functions of the qualitative changes to obtain the membership degrees of the indexes, and establishing a fuzzy matrix according to the membership degrees; wherein, different rows in the matrix represent the membership degree of the evaluated object to fuzzy subsets with different levels from different single factors; 5) performing product on the factor weight and the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector;
wherein, the water environment information in the step 1) is specifically the pollutant type information, and the established information set is U ═ x1,x2…xnIn the formula, x1,x2…xnRespectively representing measured values of n pollutants monitored by water quality;
the set of evaluation levels established in step 2) of S2 is subjected to level division according to "surface water environment quality standard", and the obtained set is V ═ 1,2,3,4,5 };
s3: acquisition of contaminant migration information
Deducing migration motion information of the pollutants according to a mass conservation law of the pollutants; specifically, the formula is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000051
wherein C is the concentration of the pollutant at the source point (x, y) of the pollutant at the time t, g/L; t is the diffusion time of the contaminant, s; dx、DyIs the diffusion coefficient of the water area in the longitudinal and transverse directions, m2/s；ux、uyRespectively the average flow velocity in the longitudinal and transverse directions of the water area, m/s; k is the degradation coefficient of the pollutant in the water area, s-1(ii) a Sigma S is a pollutant source and a sink item;
s4: emergency treatment
Making an emergency treatment program according to the analytic hierarchy process aiming at the fuzzy evaluation result of S2 and the migration motion information of S3; the method specifically comprises the following steps: 1) establishing a multi-level element evaluation index system;
2) constructing a judgment matrix: giving a judgment according to the relative importance of each element in multiple layers, and expressing the judgment as a matrix
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000061
3) ComputingThe product M of each row element in the matrix is obtainedi；
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000062
Wherein n is the order of the matrix;
4) calculating the average weight of the index
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000063
Wherein k is k experts;
5) and obtaining a combined weight value set of each index to the final evaluation object by a layer-by-layer product making method:
W*＝{W*,W2*,…,*Wn*}
6) calculating a technical evaluation result by utilizing a leading weighting model:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000064
in the formula: wi *Weighting values for each index; piIs a normalized value of each index.
Example 2: the difference from example 1 is: further consistency check is needed for the judgment matrix; and (3) calculating a consistency index:
Figure RE-GDA0002678088360000065
in the formula: CI is a consistency index; n is the order of the weight coefficient matrix; lambda [ alpha ]maxIs the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; when the CI is 0, judging that the matrix is a consistent matrix array; the smaller the CI, the higher the consistency.
Example 3: the difference from example 1 is: step S1, an environment monitoring system is adopted to realize the combination of regional monitoring stationing information acquisition and a real-time satellite monitoring platform; the environment monitoring system specifically comprises a detection host, a real-time monitoring unit module and a remote sensing image data detection unit module which are connected with the host in a distributed manner; the detection host comprises a computer main body and an interaction module arranged on the computer main body; the real-time monitoring unit module specifically comprises a camera module, a water quality detection sensor module and a remote measuring terminal, wherein the camera module and the water quality detection sensor module are connected with a detection host through the remote measuring terminal, and the water quality detection sensor module specifically adopts an online water quality monitoring system produced by electronics and technology limited with smooth precision; the remote sensing image data detection unit module is a satellite monitoring platform system, in particular to a Beidou satellite remote sensing image monitoring platform system.

Claims (6)

1. A technical evaluation method for emergency of sudden water environment pollution is characterized by specifically comprising the following steps:
s1: acquisition of contaminant information
Setting a network-based information acquisition system to rapidly acquire information of a pollutant source, a pollutant type, a pollution area diffusion area and specific environmental parameters;
s2: water environment information result evaluation
Counting the collected information, integrating the counted information and establishing a corresponding database, and carrying out fuzzy evaluation on the water environment safety by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the water environment information of the database;
s3: acquisition of contaminant migration information
Deducing migration motion information of the pollutants according to a mass conservation law of the pollutants; specifically, the formula is as follows:
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000011
wherein C is the concentration of the pollutant at the source point (x, y) of the pollutant at the time t, g/L; t is the diffusion time of the contaminant, s; dx、DyIs the diffusion coefficient of the water area in the longitudinal and transverse directions, m2/s；ux、uyRespectively the average flow velocity in the longitudinal and transverse directions of the water area, m/s; k is the degradation coefficient of the pollutant in the water area, s-1(ii) a Sigma S is a pollutant source and a sink item;
s4: emergency treatment
And making an emergency treatment program according to a analytic hierarchy process aiming at the fuzzy evaluation result of S2 and the migration motion information of S3.
2. The emergency technical assessment method for sudden aquatic environment pollution according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 comprises the following steps: the pollution source and the pollution area are rapidly mastered by adopting a mode of combining manual investigation of the pollution area and regional monitoring stationing information acquisition with a real-time satellite monitoring platform; the method comprises the following steps of (1) mastering pollutant variety information by adopting a sample collection and analysis mode and combining with industrial enterprise information in a pollution area and chemical transportation information in the pollution area; and (4) adopting the recorded information of the climate bureau and the hydrological bureau to master the environmental parameters of the polluted area, wherein the environmental parameters comprise water area environmental parameters and climate environmental parameters.
3. The emergency technical assessment method for sudden aquatic environment pollution according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 comprises the following steps: 1) determining a specific water environment information evaluation index, and establishing an information factor set; 2) determining the meaning of each index, dividing the levels, and further establishing a set of evaluation levels; 3) establishing a weight set of each evaluation factor to obtain a fuzzy weight vector; 4) according to the grades divided by the evaluation indexes, establishing membership functions of the qualitative changes to obtain the membership degrees of the indexes, and establishing a fuzzy matrix according to the membership degrees; wherein, different rows in the matrix represent the membership degree of the evaluated object to fuzzy subsets with different levels from different single factors; 5) and (4) performing product on the factor weight and the membership matrix to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector.
4. The emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution according to claim 3, wherein the water environment information in step 1) of S2 is specifically the type information of pollutants, and the established information set is U ═ x1,x2…xnIn the formula, x1,x2…xnRespectively representing measured values of n pollutants monitored by water quality;
the set of evaluation levels established in step 2) of S2 is classified according to "surface water environment quality standard", and the obtained set is V ═ 1,2,3,4,5 }.
5. The emergency technical assessment method for sudden aquatic environment pollution according to claim 1, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises:
1) establishing a multi-level element evaluation index system;
2) constructing a judgment matrix: giving a judgment according to the relative importance of each element in multiple layers, and expressing the judgment as a matrix
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000021
3) Calculating the product M of each row element in the matrixi；
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000022
Wherein n is the order of the matrix;
4) calculating the average weight of the index
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000031
Wherein k is k experts;
5) and obtaining a combined weight value set of each index to the final evaluation object by a layer-by-layer product making method: w*＝{W*,W2*,…,*Wn*}
6) Calculating a technical evaluation result by utilizing a leading weighting model:
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000032
in the formula: wi *Weighting values for each index; piIs a normalized value of each index.
6. The emergency technical assessment method for sudden water environment pollution according to claim 5, wherein the judgment matrix further needs to be subjected to consistency check; and (3) calculating a consistency index:
Figure RE-FDA0002678088350000033
in the formula: CI is a consistency index; n is the order of the weight coefficient matrix; lambda [ alpha ]maxIs the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix; when the CI is 0, judging that the matrix is a consistent matrix array; the smaller the CI, the higher the consistency.
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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116310831A (en) * 2023-03-23 2023-06-23 河南省水利第一工程局集团有限公司 Big data-based water source environment monitoring method and system

Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102222172A (en) * 2011-06-28 2011-10-19 哈尔滨工业大学 Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident
CN106846178A (en) * 2017-02-13 2017-06-13 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 A kind of river type water head site comprehensive safety evaluation method
CN110084418A (en) * 2019-04-21 2019-08-02 北京工业大学 A kind of monitoring point optimization distribution method of burst atmosphere pollution accident emergency monitoring

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102222172A (en) * 2011-06-28 2011-10-19 哈尔滨工业大学 Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident
CN106846178A (en) * 2017-02-13 2017-06-13 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 A kind of river type water head site comprehensive safety evaluation method
CN110084418A (en) * 2019-04-21 2019-08-02 北京工业大学 A kind of monitoring point optimization distribution method of burst atmosphere pollution accident emergency monitoring

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116310831A (en) * 2023-03-23 2023-06-23 河南省水利第一工程局集团有限公司 Big data-based water source environment monitoring method and system
CN116310831B (en) * 2023-03-23 2023-11-03 河南省水利第一工程局集团有限公司 Big data-based water source environment monitoring method and system

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