CN111933293B - Emergency information management method, system and storage medium - Google Patents
Emergency information management method, system and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
- G16H—HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
- G16H50/00—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics
- G16H50/80—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics, e.g. flu
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- H04L51/00—User-to-user messaging in packet-switching networks, transmitted according to store-and-forward or real-time protocols, e.g. e-mail
- H04L51/04—Real-time or near real-time messaging, e.g. instant messaging [IM]
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Abstract
The invention provides an emergency information management method, a system and a storage medium, wherein the emergency information management method comprises the following steps: step 1, issuing information to personnel in a group in a broadcast mode through instant messaging software, and recording the time for issuing the information; step 2, acquiring response information of the personnel in the group, and calculating the time for re-notification according to an information transmission response model for the personnel who do not respond; and step 3: and according to the time of the re-notification, performing one-to-one telephone notification to the non-responding personnel. The invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention has certain reference significance for promoting the development of the informatization management of schools, enhancing the application of informatization technology in the emergency information management of schools and improving the transmission speed and accuracy of information, and is worthy of popularization and application.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to an emergency information management method, an emergency information management system and a storage medium.
Background
The novel CoronaVirus pneumonia (CoronaVirus Disease 2019, COVID-19) is hereinafter referred to as novel CoronaVirus pneumonia, and has the obvious characteristics of obvious outbreak, strong infectivity and wide epidemic range. The school as a social organization with higher concentration needs to quickly and accurately obtain accurate information of teachers and students in the epidemic situation period on one hand, and selects a proper time to make a corresponding decision on the other hand, so that the school is very important, and therefore, the information management research on emergent public health events is carried out, and the timeliness of information acquisition and decision making is improved, so that the school has urgent practical significance.
An emergency event, refers to an incident that occurs suddenly and is often difficult to predict and prevent [6 ]. Such as a public health incident, that occurs suddenly, an event that may cause or may be a major health risk. If the new coronary pneumonia event belongs to a typical emergent public health event, the emergency information management in the process of dealing with the emergent event ensures that the accuracy of information and the disposal speed are key factors for improving the emergency disposal capability, and an efficient emergent disposal information system for major emergent public health events is established, so that quick, accurate and comprehensive information can be provided for decision makers, and the decision for dealing with crisis is ensured to be correct and effective.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an emergency information management method, which comprises the following steps:
in the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time (for example: one hour), and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e based on the expected time of completion of the sampling and the transfer model eigenvalues-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processRepresents the scheduled completion time, and k represents the direct confirmation factor (unit:%/h) of the re-notification (telephone pass), i.e., the number of persons that can be notified in one hour.
In a further improvement of the present invention, in the means for obtaining the characteristic value of the transfer response model, a · e is used-btTo indicate the number of persons who responded within the t hour after the information was distributed, the total number of persons who responded t hours after the information was distributed is obtained by integrating the number of persons, and g (t) is given as the total number of persons who responded, and g (t) is 1 at t → ∞ time, and g (t) is given as:
g(t)＝1-e-ct(formula 1)
In equation (1): g (t) is the total response proportion after the information is issued; c is a transfer response coefficient representing the rate of information transfer;
the response ratio in the t to t +1 hour after the information is distributed is represented by f (t), and it can be seen that:
f(t)＝(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 2)
Through a function f (t), the response proportion obtained after the 1 st hour after the information is released is as follows:
c ═ ln [1-f (0) ] (formula 3)
If g (t) is 1-e-ctIndicating the total amount of the response, h (t) e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is indicated;
and V (T) is used to represent the user activity at each moment, and the actual response proportion f' (t) is:
f′(t)＝m·V(T+t)·(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 4)
In the formula: t represents the actual time, i.e. hours in a day; t represents the duration of information distribution; v (T) represents the activity of the user at the current moment; m is a proportional correction factor; the total response g' (t) is then:
when g' (∞) is 1, then there are
i represents a sampling point when the integral discrete operation is performed.
As a further improvement of the present invention, in the information transfer response model, the transfer response coefficient and the scale correction coefficient are obtained by integrating the data f '(0) and f' (1) of the first two hours after taking the liveness into consideration, and f '(0) and f' (1) are divided into:
the transfer response coefficient c can be obtained by the formula (6), and the proportional correction coefficient m can be calculated.
As a further improvement of the invention, the instant messaging software comprises WeChat and QQ, and in step 1, the message is issued through WeChat group or QQ group, and the time of issuing the message is recorded.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the emergency information management method further includes:
and step 3: according to the time of the re-notification, a one-to-one phone (including a fixed phone or a mobile phone) notification is made to the non-responding person.
The invention also provides an emergency information management system, which comprises the following modules:
the information release module: the system comprises a server and a server, wherein the server is used for publishing information to personnel (such as members are students) in a group (such as a class group) in a broadcast mode through instant messaging software, and recording the time of publishing the information (such as 8 am of the time of publishing the information in the group for the first time);
a data processing module: the system is used for acquiring response information of the personnel in the group (for example, a teacher issues a message in the group, the first student replies, the first student responds, the second student does not reply, and the second student does not respond), and for the personnel who do not respond, the time for notifying again is calculated according to an information transmission response model (for example, the second student does not respond, and then the second student makes a call at 10 am the next day to notify the second directly);
in the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time (for example: one hour), and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e based on the expected time of completion of the sampling and the transfer model eigenvalues-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processIndicating the scheduled completion time, k indicating the re-notification (electricity)Talk-through) is directly confirmed (unit: %/h), i.e. the number of persons that can be notified in one hour.
In a further improvement of the present invention, in the means for obtaining the characteristic value of the transfer response model, a · e is used-btTo indicate the number of persons who responded within the t hour after the information was distributed, the total number of persons who responded t hours after the information was distributed is obtained by integrating the number of persons, and g (t) is given as the total number of persons who responded, and g (t) is 1 at t → ∞ time, and g (t) is given as:
g(t)＝1-e-ct(formula 1)
In equation (1): g (t) is the total response proportion after the information is issued; c is a transfer response coefficient representing the rate of information transfer;
the response ratio in the t to t +1 hour after the information is distributed is represented by f (t), and it can be seen that:
f(t)＝(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 2)
Through a function f (t), the response proportion obtained after the 1 st hour after the information is released is as follows:
c ═ ln [1-f (0) ] (formula 3)
If g (t) is 1-e-ctIndicating the total amount of the response, h (t) e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is indicated;
and V (T) is used to represent the user activity at each moment, and the actual response proportion f' (t) is:
f′(t)＝m·V(T+t)·(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 4)
In the formula: t represents the actual time, i.e. hours in a day; t represents the duration of information distribution; v (T) represents the activity of the user at the current moment; m is a proportional correction factor; the total response g' (t) is then:
when g' (∞) is 1, then there are
i represents a sampling point when the integral discrete operation is performed.
As a further improvement of the present invention, in the information transfer response model, the transfer response coefficient and the scale correction coefficient are obtained by integrating the data f '(0) and f' (1) of the first two hours after taking the liveness into consideration, and f '(0) and f' (1) are divided into:
the transfer response coefficient c can be obtained by the formula (6), and the proportional correction coefficient m can be calculated.
As a further improvement of the invention, the instant messaging software comprises WeChat and QQ, and in the information release module, messages are released through WeChat groups or QQ groups, and the time for releasing the messages is recorded;
the emergency information management system further includes:
the information re-notification module: and is used for carrying out one-to-one telephone (including a fixed telephone or a mobile telephone) notification to the non-responding personnel according to the time of the re-notification.
The present invention also provides a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program configured to, when invoked by a processor, perform the steps of the emergency information management method of the present invention.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention has certain reference significance for promoting the development of the informatization management of schools, enhancing the application of informatization technology in the emergency information management of schools and improving the transmission speed and accuracy of information, and is worthy of popularization and application.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an organization diagram of an information delivery architecture;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of an information delivery network architecture;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of an information delivery process;
FIG. 4 is a statistical chart of student information response population;
FIG. 5 is a WeChat-based time-sharing activity diagram;
FIG. 6 is a graph of an information response after a weight division;
FIG. 7 is a total data fit graph;
FIG. 8 is a graph comparing student response curves for different grades to a fitted curve;
FIG. 9 is a graph comparing different specialty response curves to a fitted curve;
FIG. 10 is a graph comparing the response curve of the fitted graph after division by total data;
FIG. 11 is a graph comparing student response curves to fit curves for different grades;
FIG. 12 is a graph comparing different specialty response curves to a fitted curve;
FIG. 13 is a graph comparing total response change (after division by weight) to a fitted curve;
FIG. 14 is a graph of student information total response change;
FIG. 15 is an overall information response curve (reference graph);
FIG. 16 is a graph of response variation based on the two-step method;
FIG. 17 is a flow chart of a method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
According to the invention, by researching how to timely, accurately and completely master the stroke and health state of students in the process of student management in vocational schools, through collecting and analyzing epidemic situation data of students in vocational schools, a school information transmission model under emergency information management is established, and information transmission characteristics and response rules are discussed.
1 information transmission system architecture under new crown epidemic situation
1.1 information transfer Structure organization
As shown in FIG. 1, in the information management process of students in vocational colleges, the information transmission structure organization under the emergent public health incident is divided into three blocks: respectively a data acquisition system, a data storage and analysis system, and an application and output system. The method comprises the following specific steps:
(1) the data acquisition system acquires basic data, such as the acquisition of the basic information, health condition and trip information of students in the event, and generally reports the basic data to the students.
(2) The data storage and analysis system stores and encodes basic data, such as a class leader, an instructor, a manager and the like, arranges and stores the basic data, and transmits the basic data to a next-level system, wherein the data storage and analysis system generally comprises three levels of responsibility of the class leader, the instructor (or an information manager) and the manager.
(3) The application and output system makes a decision on the coded information, wherein the decision is fed back to the management work, and the output is formed and transmitted to the next level of management and is generally taken charge of by decision-making personnel.
1.2 communicating the content and characteristics of information
Information delivery (sampling) the collected content, i.e. the data of information delivery, the invention delivers the content such as basic information, journey information and health status information of students with codv-19, and the delivery content is shown in the following table:
table 1 contents of delivery
In the situation that COVID-19 is used as an emergent public health event and schools are used as important public places, the characteristics of information transmission are as follows:
(1) the age structure of students is centralized in 15-22 years, wherein 17-22 years are made for three-four years at the beginning of high school, and 15-21 years are made for five-six years at the beginning of junior middle school;
(2) the psychological development of students is not mature, the plasticity of personality characteristics is strong, new things are curious, and new communication modes (such as WeChat, microblog, short video and the like) are favored.
(3) The information transmission is required to be strong in timeliness, daily reports and daily knots are generally required for the information transmission, and student information is mastered in real time.
(4) The information content accuracy is high, for the information of the emergent public incident, the accuracy of 100% is required as for the important information, and if an error occurs, the serious harm and loss can be caused.
(5) The information content is discrete.
1.3 information transfer network architecture
In the 40 s of the 20 th century, shannon proposed a model of a communication system, defined information sources, channels and information sinks [ ], and according to the information transfer characteristics of students in vocational colleges and universities in the new crown epidemic situation, the following information transfer network architecture of fig. 2 can be known, specifically as follows:
(1) the network nodes are divided into A, B nodes and C nodes, which respectively correspond to the data acquisition system, the data storage and analysis system, and the application and output system shown in FIG. 1.
(2) The channels are divided into a permanent channel and a temporary channel. The permanent channel is shown as a solid line in the figure, and represents a path which information transmission must pass through, such as information transmission from a to b and information transmission from b to c which are realized by carrying out information transmission in a class group in a broadcast mode through WeChat communication and QQ group; the temporary channel is shown as a dotted line in the figure, and indicates that in the transmission process, once the information is found to need to be further confirmed, the channel can be temporarily built to collect the temporary information, for example, the collection of individual special data of the current epidemic situation needs to be carried out, and an instructor and a manager need to temporarily communicate with students, for example, in a one-to-one telephone communication mode.
1.4 information transfer procedure
As shown in fig. 1 to 3, the information transmission process is divided into three stages:
(1) data acquisition phase
The student information is encoded and collected by the students A to form basic data, and the data encoding format is shown in table 1.
(2) Output storage, processing stage
And in the output storage and processing stage, the class B master stores and processes data sent by the class B master and the class B manager to the class A students and the class B instructors (information managers) to form primary, secondary and final arrangement data. The primary data comprises a class data account table and a statistical information table, the stimulation data comprises a hospital (department) level account table and a statistical summary table, the final data is a school level statistical summary table generally, and if data is abnormal or lost in the information transmission process, the data is fed back and corrected.
(3) Decision phase
C, analyzing the data of the decision summary table by decision staff, and on one hand, feeding back problems and abnormal data found in the data; and on the other hand, forming decision content according to the analysis result.
2 information transfer response in new crown epidemic situation
2.1 information sampling results
In order to ensure the timeliness and the accuracy of the information transmission efficiency in the emergency information management of the school under COVID-19, the information sampling condition is as follows:
(1) time: sun newspaper, 5 days 2/2020-3 days 4/2020.
(2) Sample preparation: electromechanical speciality, age 16-22 years, 1531 person.
(3) Class response statistics: the year of entrance, professional information, class information, school year system and response time data of each student to the information in each day are shown in table 2, and the total response overall situation is shown in fig. 4.
TABLE 2 statistical table of responses of each class
2.2 message transfer response model building
(1) Message delivery response de-weighting
As shown in fig. 4, there are two peaks in the overall response scenario: the first is the response peak 1 after the information is issued from 0 point, and the second is the response peak 2 caused by the student activity peak around 10 points. Therefore, the response data obtained by investigation is superposed with the weighted data of the liveness generated by the student according to the work and rest rule, and the weight is required to be removed when the response model is established. Thus, as shown in FIG. 5, the 2019 year Q3 micro credit user time sharing liveness data of Trustdata was introduced as online liveness data in the model [1 ].
The overall response is divided, as shown in fig. 6, and it can be known that:
1) two peaks still exist after the weight removal, the response peak 3 at the point 0 is increased relative to that before the weight removal, and the response peak 4 at the point 10 is reduced more, so that the influence of most of on-line activity is obviously removed.
2) But a 10-point response peak is at all. For the existence of 10-point response peaks, firstly, the activity curve of the WeChat is not accurate enough, for example, the WeChat contains the activity data of foreign users at night; secondly, the students can complement the information confirmed before after waking up in the morning, which causes a subjective small peak.
3) Except for small peaks before and after 10 points, the whole response process is in a monotonous descending trend, and the longer the time is, the closer the response proportion is to 0%.
(2) Information transfer response model building
From the information transfer response after the weight division, the information transfer response model can be fitted to data by an exponential function, i.e., (y) a · e) form. Fitting is carried out by using a Curve Fitting Tool built in MATLAB (matrix laboratory) and a nonlinear Least square method is adopted and matched with an enhancement algorithm of minimum Absolute Residual error (LAR). The fitting model can be known as: y is 0.4103 e-0.7066x
The calculation results of the model are as follows:
General model Exp1：
f(x)＝a＊exp(b＊x)
Coefficients(with 95％confidence bounds)：
a＝0.4103(0.3937.0.4268)
b＝-0.7066(-0.7621，-0.6511)
Goodness of fit：
SSE：0.00149
R-square：0.992
Adjusted R-square：0.9917
RMSE：0.00823
according to the calculation result of the model and the fitting graph of the total data in FIG. 7, the following results are obtained:
(1) standard deviation (RMSE) 0.00823;
(2) the coefficient R squared (R-square) was determined to be 0.992, i.e. the model had a high degree of coincidence with the actual survey results.
(3) By observing the comparison between the fitting curve and the actual response distribution curve, the model can be well fitted with the response distribution.
2.3 message passing response model verification
(1) Validation of validity
As can be seen from fig. 8 and 9, when the student response curves in two dimensions of the age structure and the professional structure of the student are compared with the fitting model, students in different years of study and students in different professions have better contact degrees with the fitting model, which proves that the fitting model is effective.
(2) Verification of repeatability
In order to verify the repeatability of the model, the same information transmission structure, information transmission mode and sampling content are adopted, the adopted time is adjusted, namely, after the information release time is changed to 9 am, the experiment is carried out for 7 days again, and the result is shown in fig. 10-13.
As can be seen from fig. 10 to 13, on the one hand, the response graph after time adjustment still has a good fit with the calculation model, and the transfer response coefficient remains 0.7066 without changing, and the total information response condition does not change significantly, i.e., the repetition of the fitting model is proved. On the other hand, a relatively obvious deviation occurs in the response curve from 9 to 11 points, and the deviation is matched with the small peak occurring in the same time period before the sampling time is adjusted, namely the difference of results is caused by the actual activity of the user, and a certain deviation is generated by using the activity data of the user as a reference in the literature.
2.4 methodology of information transfer response model feature values
(1) Method 1
The exponential function of 2.3 shows that the description of the information transmitted to the confirmation has high degree of conformity, and can pass through a.e-btTo indicate the number of people who responded within the tth hour after the information was posted. Therefore, assuming that g (t) is the total number of persons who respond t hours after the information is distributed by integrating the points, and g (t) is 1 when t → ∞ time, g (t) is:
g(t)＝1-e-ct
in the formula: g (t) is the total response proportion after the information is issued; and c is a transfer response coefficient which represents the rate of information transfer. If c is 0.7066 in the model, the total number of response persons of the model is g (t) 1-e-0.7066tThe graph and the variation law are shown in fig. 14 and table 3.
TABLE 3 student information total response timesharing table
The response ratio in the t to t +1 hour after the information is distributed is represented by f (t), and it can be seen that:
f(t)＝(1-e-c)·e-ct
through a function f (t), the response proportion obtained after the 1 st hour after the information is released is as follows:
c＝-ln[1-f(0)]
if g (t) is 1-e-ctIndicating the total amount of the response, h (t) e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is indicated. However, the premise of this model is that the activity of all people is the same in every hour, and the data will change under the actual activity curve, and it is not preferable to obtain a new f' (t) as the actual response ratio by merely multiplying the activity index by f (t), because the total response amount (ratio) g (t) is not equal to 100% under this condition.
To solve this problem, assuming that v (t) is used to represent the user activity at each time, the actual response ratio f' (t) is:
f′(t)＝m·V(T+t)·(1-e-c)·e-ct
in the formula: t represents the actual time, i.e. hours in a day; t represents the duration of information distribution; v (T) represents the activity of the user at the current moment; and m is a proportional correction coefficient. The total response g' (t) is then:
when g' (∞) ═1, then there are
(2) Method two
From the above, when the activity is not considered, the transfer response coefficient can be calculated by using the response proportion data in the first hour; the first two hours of data f '(0) and f' (1) can be used to calculate the transfer response coefficient and the scaling factor in combination, taking into account the activity. Dividing f '(0) and f' (1) to obtain:
the magnitude of the transfer response coefficient c can be obtained by the above equation, and the proportional correction coefficient m can be calculated.
In conclusion, the model can completely predict the information transfer response curve based on different activeness.
The invention discloses an application of an information transmission response model in emergency information management of vocational schools, namely, the invention discloses an emergency information management method.
h(t)＝e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is shown, and it can be known from repeatability verification that the influence of repeated information distribution on the whole information transmission process is small without changing the information transmission mode (namely, without changing the transmission response coefficient c), namely, the rapidity of the method fails after a certain stage is reached by adopting a micro-communication means, if all people need to finish receiving information as soon as possible, customized information distribution needs to be selected for unresponsive people after distributing hours, and the specific time point selection depends on the total number of people and the information transmission mode.
3.1 Emergency information management workflow application
According to the information transmission response model, emergency information management comprises scheme establishment and arrangement, data acquisition and analysis, information transmission response model establishment and emergency management decision. The method comprises the following specific steps:
(1) project establishment and deployment
The scheme establishment and arrangement comprises the steps of establishing an emergency management working scheme and arranging working tasks, wherein the step of establishing the emergency management working scheme comprises the steps of setting working requirements, working contents, time arrangement, personnel arrangement, guarantee arrangement and the like; the arrangement work task comprises release time, information sampling content, information transmission responsible persons, information sampling total number of persons and set plan completion time tComplete the process。
(2) Data acquisition and analysis
In order to ensure quick and accurate acquisition in emergency information management, sampling information is acquired by a two-step acquisition method, namely information transmission from a to b and from b to c is performed in a class group in a broadcast mode through a WeChat group and a QQ group in the first step, and information transmission from a to b and from b to c is performed in a one-to-one mode through a mobile phone and a fixed phone in the second step.
(3) Information transfer response model building
The information transmission response model is established into two stages, including calculating the characteristic value of the information transmission response model and drawing the curve prediction information of the information transmission response model.
First, a characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained. Counting the proportion of the number of people who finish the information distribution for one hour, and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m, such as data c and m obtained by the experiment of the invention, so that the overall information response curve without considering the second stage is shown in fig. 15;
next, transfer model curve prediction information is plotted. The switching time (i.e., the time to notify again) confirmed by the "one-to-one" phone is obtained from the information sampling completion time node and the transfer model feature value. Solving equations 1-e-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the planned propagation scheme switching time tHandover，tHandoverIndicating the time of the re-notification.
(4) Emergency management decisions
The emergency management decision comprises a predictive decision, a completed information transmission task and a final decision. The predictive decision-making means that the decision-making is carried out in advance according to the response feedback of the prediction curve, so that the emergency situation can be developed in advanceMoreover, predictive decision-making; completing the information transmission task at the preset switching time tHandoverThe information transmission is carried out in the form of a to b and b to c realized by the persons who do not respond in the form of ' one-to-one ' of mobile phones and fixed phones at ' tComplete the processCompleting the information transmission task; and (4) final decision-making, namely feedback aiming at final collected information and predictive decision-making.
3.2 analysis of Emergency information management working methods
In order to determine the accurate time for completing the whole process, the method is subjected to simulation test. It is assumed here that the number of "one-to-one" telephone communications per unit time is constant, and therefore it can be inferred that the response variation is linear [2 ]. The direct confirmation coefficient k is defined to represent the proportion of people who can perform information confirmation by means of direct telephone confirmation in unit time, and the unit is percentage/hour. The size of the direct confirmation coefficient k depends on the human resources invested and the total number of required confirmations.
In order to determine the time for implementing the one-to-one telephone communication, the ratio of the number completed in the first stage needs to be set, and g (t) is 1-e-ctFor example, if the telephone communication is started when the confirmation is set to be completed by 90%, the calculated start time is 3 hours and 15 minutes after the information is distributed, if the set ratio is 95%, the start time is 4 hours and 14 minutes, and if the set ratio is 98%, the start time is 5 hours and 32 minutes. The corresponding response curve is shown in fig. 16.
In this model, it is assumed that the direct confirmation factor k is 15%/h. As can be seen in table 4, the start and end times of the two phases can be calculated for different first phase completion ratios set. It can be seen that if the ratio is set lower, more time is spent in the two phases, but the advantage is that the complete delivery flow of the information distribution can always be ended faster. When the response of the information transmission later period is slow, the information transmission period can be effectively shortened by using the secondary confirmation method, which is a necessary measure in the whole information transmission process.
TABLE 4 Start and end times for different secondary confirmation set ratios
| Ratio of secondary confirmation | Starting | End time | |
| 90％ | 3h15min | 3h55min | |
| 95％ | 4h14min | 4h34min | |
| 98％ | 5h32min | 5h40min |
In summary, as shown in fig. 17, the present invention discloses an emergency information management method, which includes the following steps:
and step 3: according to the time of the re-notification, a one-to-one phone (including a fixed phone or a mobile phone) notification is made to the non-responding person.
In the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time (for example: one hour), and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e based on the expected time of completion of the sampling and the transfer model eigenvalues-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processRepresents the scheduled completion time, and k represents the direct confirmation factor (unit:%/h) of the re-notification (telephone pass), i.e., the number of persons that can be notified in one hour.
The instant messaging software comprises WeChat and QQ, and in step 1, the messages are issued through WeChat groups or QQ groups, and the time for issuing the messages is recorded.
The invention also discloses an emergency information management system, which comprises the following modules:
the information release module: the system comprises a server and a server, wherein the server is used for publishing information to personnel (such as members are students) in a group (such as a class group) in a broadcast mode through instant messaging software, and recording the time of publishing the information (such as 8 am of the time of publishing the information in the group for the first time);
a data processing module: the system is used for acquiring response information of the personnel in the group (for example, a teacher issues a message in the group, the first student replies, the first student responds, the second student does not reply, and the second student does not respond), and for the personnel who do not respond, the time for notifying again is calculated according to an information transmission response model (for example, the second student does not respond, and then the second student makes a call at 10 am the next day to notify the second directly);
the information re-notification module: and is used for carrying out one-to-one telephone (including a fixed telephone or a mobile telephone) notification to the non-responding personnel according to the time of the re-notification.
In the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time (for example: one hour), and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e according to the information sampling completion time node and the transfer model characteristic value-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processIndicating the scheduled completion time.
The invention also discloses a computer readable storage medium storing a computer program configured to implement the steps of the emergency information management method of the invention when invoked by a processor.
4 conclusion
The present invention is directed to information delivery systems and responses in public health emergencies (e.g., COVID-19), including:
(1) the structural organization, the network architecture, the transmission process and the transmission means of the information transmission system in the emergency information management of the vocational school under the new crown epidemic situation are analyzed.
(2) An information transmission response model is established, and a characteristic value solving method is discussed.
(3) The information transfer response model was tested and demonstrated better goodness of fit with the fitted curve from the corresponding curves in both dimensions.
(4) An emergency information management workflow is established, and key parameters in actual use such as: the time for completing information sampling, the amount of input resources and the relationship between time nodes for switching two different information transmission modes.
(5) The information transmission response model can be used in social organizations with similar information transmission structures and transmission modes, such as schools, enterprises and public institutions.
In conclusion, the invention introduces the basic elements of the emergency information management system under the new crown epidemic situation, analyzes the actual information transmission data of students in vocational schools, establishes the student information transmission response model under the emergency information management system, lays a quantitative mathematical model foundation for the data analysis of the information system for the research of emergent public health events, the establishment of a decision support system and various application systems, and provides the emergency information management method based on the model, which has certain reference significance for promoting the development of the school informatization management, enhancing the application of the informatization technology in the school emergency information management, and improving the transmission speed and accuracy of information, and is worthy of popularization and application.
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The foregoing is a more detailed description of the invention in connection with specific preferred embodiments and it is not intended that the invention be limited to these specific details. For those skilled in the art to which the invention pertains, several simple deductions or substitutions can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention, and all shall be considered as belonging to the protection scope of the invention.
Claims (6)
1. An emergency information management method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, issuing information to personnel in a group in a broadcast mode through instant messaging software, and recording the time for issuing the information;
step 2, acquiring response information of the personnel in the group, and calculating the time for re-notification according to an information transmission response model for the personnel who do not respond;
in the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time, and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e based on the expected time of completion of the sampling and the transfer model eigenvalues-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processThe system comprises a planning completion time display unit, a direct confirmation coefficient k and a direct confirmation coefficient k, wherein the planning completion time display unit is used for displaying the planning completion time, the direct confirmation coefficient k is used for displaying the proportion of people who can confirm information in a unit time in a direct telephone confirmation mode, and the size of the direct confirmation coefficient k depends on the input human resources and the total quantity to be confirmed;
in the solution for obtaining the eigenvalue of the transfer response model, let g (t) be the total response population ratio, and when t → ∞ g (t) ═ 1, g (t) is known to be:
g(t)＝1-e-ct(formula 1)
In equation (1): g (t) is the total response proportion after the information is issued; c is a transfer response coefficient representing the rate of information transfer;
the response ratio in the t to t +1 hour after the information is distributed is represented by f (t), and it can be seen that:
f(t)＝(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 2)
Through a function f (t), the response proportion obtained after the 1 st hour after the information is released is as follows:
c ═ ln [1-f (0) ] (formula 3)
If g (t) is 1-e-ctIndicating the total amount of the response, h (t) e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is indicated;
and V (f) is used to represent the user activity at each moment, the actual response proportion f' (t) is:
f′(t)＝m·V(T+t)·(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 4)
In the formula: t represents the actual time, i.e. hours in a day; t represents the duration of information distribution; v (T) represents the activity of the user at the current moment; m is a proportional correction factor; the total response g' (t) is then:
when g' (∞) is 1, then there are
i represents a sampling point when integral discrete operation is carried out;
in the information transfer response model, the transfer response coefficient and the proportional correction coefficient are obtained by integrating the data f '(0) and f' (1) of the first two hours after the liveness is considered, and f '(0) and f' (1) are divided into:
the transfer response coefficient c can be obtained by the formula (6), and the proportional correction coefficient m can be calculated.
2. The emergency information management method according to claim 1, wherein the instant messenger software includes wechat and QQ, and in step 1, the message is issued through the wechat group or the QQ group, and the time when the message is issued is recorded.
3. The emergency information management method according to any one of claims 1 to 2, further comprising:
and step 3: and according to the time of the re-notification, performing one-to-one telephone notification to the non-responding personnel.
4. An emergency information management system, comprising modules that operate:
the information release module: the system is used for issuing information to personnel in the group in a broadcasting mode through instant messaging software and recording the time for issuing the information;
a data processing module: the system is used for acquiring response information of the personnel in the group and calculating the time for notifying again according to the information transmission response model aiming at the personnel who do not respond;
in the information transfer response model, firstly, the characteristic value of the transfer response model is obtained, and then curve prediction information of the transfer model is drawn;
the technical scheme for solving the characteristic value of the transfer response model is as follows: counting the proportion of the number of the responding persons after the information is released for a specified time, and calculating a transmission response coefficient c and a correction coefficient m;
the technical scheme for drawing the prediction information of the transfer model curve is as follows: solving equations 1-e based on the expected time of completion of the sampling and the transfer model eigenvalues-ct＝1+k(t-tComplete the process) The obtained t is the time of the re-notification, c represents the transmission response coefficient, tComplete the processRepresents the scheduled completion time, and k represents the direct confirmation coefficient notified again;
in the technical scheme for obtaining the characteristic value of the transfer response model, a.e is used-btTo indicate the number of persons who responded within the t hour after the information was distributed, the total number of persons who responded t hours after the information was distributed is obtained by integrating the number of persons, and g (t) is given as the total number of persons who responded, and g (t) is 1 at t → ∞ time, and g (t) is given as:
g(t)＝1-e-ct(formula 1)
In equation (1): g (t) is the total response proportion after the information is issued; c is a transfer response coefficient representing the rate of information transfer;
the response ratio in the t to t +1 hour after the information is distributed is represented by f (t), and it can be seen that:
f(t)＝(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 2)
Through a function f (t), the response proportion obtained after the 1 st hour after the information is released is as follows:
c ═ ln [1-f (0) ] (formula 3)
If g (t) is 1-e-ctIndicating the total amount of the response, h (t) e-ctThe total amount of unresponsiveness is indicated;
and V (T) is used to represent the user activity at each moment, and the actual response proportion f' (t) is:
f′(t)＝m·V(T+t)·(1-e-c)·e-ct(formula 4)
In the formula: t represents the actual time, i.e. hours in a day; t represents the duration of information distribution; v (T) represents the activity of the user at the current moment; m is a proportional correction factor; the total response g' (t) is then:
when g' (∞) is 1, then there are
i represents a sampling point when integral discrete operation is carried out;
in the information transfer response model, the transfer response coefficient and the proportional correction coefficient are obtained by integrating the data f '(0) and f' (1) of the first two hours after the liveness is considered, and f '(0) and f' (1) are divided into:
the transfer response coefficient c can be obtained by the formula (6), and the proportional correction coefficient m can be calculated.
5. The emergency information management system according to claim 4, wherein the instant messaging software includes wechat, QQ, and in the information publishing module, the message is published through wechat group or QQ group, and the time of publishing the message is recorded;
the emergency information management system further includes:
the information re-notification module: for making a one-to-one phone call notification to the non-responding person according to the time of the re-notification.
6. A computer-readable storage medium characterized by: the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program configured to, when invoked by a processor, implement the steps of the emergency information management method of any of claims 1-3.
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| CN109451480A (en) * | 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-08 | 江苏苏源高科技有限公司 | Emergency scheduling information interaction system based on OTT |
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