CN111898655A - Assessment method and prevention method for nuclear power station water surface security threat - Google Patents
Assessment method and prevention method for nuclear power station water surface security threat Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an assessment method for security threats of a nuclear power station water surface, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: 1) identifying a risk part of a water-standing area of the nuclear power station; 2) identifying risk factors of the surrounding water area of the nuclear power station by identifying the water surface target; 3) and establishing an evaluation model, and evaluating the risk degree of the water surface threat to the nuclear power station. The method for evaluating the water surface security threat of the nuclear power station can quickly and effectively identify and evaluate the risk of the target threatening the nuclear power station, and further can efficiently realize subsequent security strategies and responses.
Description
Technical Field
The invention particularly relates to an assessment method for nuclear power station water surface security threats and a method for preventing the nuclear power station water surface security threats, which is established based on the assessment method.
Background
Most of the nuclear power stations in China are located in coastal (water) areas, important structures such as a cooling water taking system and a drainage system are directly or indirectly connected with a water area, and water surface security is a concern in the field of nuclear security in recent years. At present, the water surface security usually adopts a camera dynamic alarm and manual observation mode at a water taking and discharging port, the distance is short, the coverage area is small, and the requirement of nuclear security defense depth defense is difficult to meet.
Chinese patent CN104732458A discloses a risk assessment method for an electric power system, which evaluates the acceptable degree of risk and takes measures by analyzing and calculating each element of the electric power system; chinese patent CN106656996A discloses an information security risk assessment method, relating to the technical field of information security. Microcomputer information (measurement and control automation) 2009, 25 th volume 8-1, published low altitude slow small target threat assessment based on ranking method, which carries out threat assessment on low slow small targets through ranking method. The above patents and documents propose risk assessment models by corresponding methods, but do not relate to methods for conducting assessment against threats to the water surface.
Chinese patent CN108241147A discloses a palm-size intelligent marine radar and a water surface monitoring method thereof, which monitors a water surface target by a palm-size marine radar and a corresponding radar algorithm; chinese patent CN105334507A discloses a method for detecting a radar target floating on the sea surface based on polarization multi-features, which improves the accuracy of detecting the target by the radar on the sea surface by a multi-polarization channel fusion improvement method. The above patent improves the monitoring accuracy of the single device (radar) on the sea surface target by algorithm optimization, but does not cover a method for identifying a defense target and judging the threat degree of an attack target, does not establish a corresponding prevention and control system, and cannot be suitable for the evaluation requirement of the nuclear power station water surface security threat.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, in order to overcome the defects of the prior art and achieve the above object, the present invention provides an assessment method for a nuclear power station water surface security threat and an early warning prevention method established based on the assessment method.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a nuclear power station water surface security threat assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) identifying the risk level of the waterfront structure of the nuclear power station by an accident tree model method, and identifying the risk part of the waterfront area of the nuclear power station;
2) identifying risk factors of the targets in the water area surrounding the nuclear power by identifying the type, the navigational speed, the course, the maneuvering capacity and other characteristics of the water surface targets;
3) and establishing an evaluation model, and evaluating the risk degree of the water surface threat to the nuclear power station.
The method comprises the following steps of 3) establishing a general evaluation model by adopting an arrangement method, and evaluating the risk degree of the water surface threat to the nuclear power station; and further setting limiting conditions according to the characteristics of the water area surrounding the nuclear power station, and establishing a typical evaluation model.
According to a preferred implementation aspect of the present invention, the step 1) of identifying the risk location of the water front area of the nuclear power plant specifically includes the following steps:
1.1) judging the possibility L of the buildings (structures) in the waterfront region suffering from invasion and grading the possibility according to the risks, wherein the value L is divided into four grades such as L1-L4 according to the risks;
1.2) judging the severity S of the invasion consequence of the buildings (structures) in the waterfront area and grading according to the severity of the loss after the buildings suffer from the invasion, wherein the S value is divided into three grades of S1-S3 and the like according to the severity of the loss after the buildings suffer from the invasion;
and 1.3) calculating and identifying risk values of buildings (structures) in the water-standing area of the nuclear power plant by adopting a formula p which is L multiplied by S, and grading, wherein the risk values are classified into four grades of extremely high, medium and low risk.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the surface target of step 2) comprises a large ship, a medium fishing boat, a small fishing boat, a motorboat, a rubber boat and a yacht.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the risk factors of step 2) include: including a target threat level T1(ii) a Time T of target reaching risk part2(ii) a Target maneuvering capability T3(ii) a And other important feature information Tn。
Wherein, the threat degree T of different targets C is judged by the target discovery probability and the aggressivity1. In particular, the target threat level T1The judgment comprises the following steps: judging the discovery probability a and the aggressivity b of each water surface target through a formula T1The target threat level is calculated as a × b.
Instant time T of target reaching risk part2The judgment comprises the following steps: determining the radial distance S and the target speed v of the target from the risk partn(ii) a Calculating radial projection speed V of target and risk part by judging target coursen，Vn＝vnCos theta (theta is more than or equal to 0 degree and less than or equal to 180 degrees); calculating the instant time T of the target reaching the risk part2，T2＝Sn/Vn。
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, step 3) comprises:
3.1) establishing a general model: establishing a risk matrix D ═ x [ x ] based on a water surface target C, target characteristic information T, risk weight w and influence factor tauij]m×n(ii) a Calculating different risks for different targetsAnd (4) the threat degree sequence of the parts, the risk degree of the water surface threat to the nuclear power station and the establishment of a general evaluation model.
3.2) establishing a typical model: and setting limiting conditions according to the characteristics of production activities and control areas of water areas around the nuclear power station, and establishing a typical evaluation model under a typical situation.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the general modeling of step 3.1) comprises the following steps: establishing a risk matrix D ═ x based on a permutation methodij]m×nIn which C isi(i-1, 2, … m) are monitored m batches of objects, Tj(j ═ 1,2, … n) is the n pieces of feature information of the target, and the risk weight w is the target CiAt a characteristic TjThe factor affecting the specific risk site is denoted as wm，wmτ × P, where τ is the factor that this feature affects the risk site. And calculating the threat degree sequence of different targets to different risk parts through the risk matrix.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the step 3.2) of building a representative model comprises the following steps: setting a monitoring reference point (such as a water intake middle point) according to the protection target concentration ratio or a sensitive passing area of the nuclear power station, establishing a monitoring area within a certain radius range by taking the monitoring reference point as a center, and setting areas such as monitoring, alarming, disposing and the like; according to the production activity condition of a water area around a nuclear power station, defining an alarm-free area (such as a navigation channel, a culture area and the like); setting a key attention area according to the nuclear power station control range; if the ship is a nuclear power plant owned or authorized ship, the ship is listed as a white list.
The invention also provides a method for preventing the security threat of the water surface of the nuclear power station, which comprises the following steps: monitoring a water surface target by adopting one or more sets of water surface monitoring radars, converting the polar coordinate position information into geographic information, speed and direction, reporting the geographic information, the speed and the direction to a control end in real time, and constructing a front-end sensing subsystem of the water surface threat target; adopting one or more sets of photoelectric equipment such as infrared and visible light photoelectric cameras to carry out recheck evidence collection, automatically realizing the matching of the pitching angle and the focal length of the photoelectric equipment and the tracking of a moving target through a position guide instruction issued by a control end, and constructing a water surface threat target recheck evidence collection subsystem; establishing a water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem by combining the assessment method of the nuclear power station water surface security threat and the geographic information system; monitoring, compound evidence obtaining and situation analysis of the nuclear power station water surface threat are realized through the established water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem, and security response of nuclear power disposal force is guided.
According to a preferred aspect of the invention, the precautionary method comprises the steps of:
a. identifying a risk part of a water-standing area of the nuclear power station and risk factors of the area by the evaluation method;
b. one or more sets of water surface monitoring radars are adopted to monitor the water surface target in real time, and the characteristics of the monitored target are uploaded to a server through a proprietary network;
c. the server analyzes the target characteristics and judges the threat degree of the target through an evaluation model;
d. guiding the photoelectric equipment to recheck and collect evidence of the intrusion target with the highest risk value;
e. carrying out secondary analysis and judgment on alarm conditions including distance, time, direction, speed and the like;
f. constructing a nuclear power station water surface security response logic architecture by combining a geographic information system;
g. establishing a water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem by combining a geographic information system;
h. and guiding the security response of the nuclear power disposal power through the water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem.
Specifically, sea surface radar monitoring information is collected and screened whether to be in a monitoring area, if so, whether to be a white list and an alarm-free area is further judged, and if so, potential risks of the targets are evaluated through target characteristics; according to the risk assessment result, alarm information is displayed on a Geographic Information System (GIS) through secondary analysis and study of alarm conditions including distance, time, direction, speed and the like, photoelectric rechecking equipment is linked, and an emergency plan is started according to a nuclear power flow.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that: the method for evaluating the water surface security threat of the nuclear power station can quickly and effectively identify and evaluate the risk of the target threatening the nuclear power station, and further can efficiently realize subsequent security strategies and responses.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating security threats of a nuclear power station water surface in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a component diagram of a nuclear power plant water surface security system in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a logic diagram of a method for preventing security threats on the water surface of a nuclear power plant in the embodiment of the invention;
fig. 4 is a comprehensive interface diagram of the command control system in the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiment of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiment is only a part of the embodiment of the present invention, and not a whole embodiment. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Embodiment 1 assessment method for water surface security threat of nuclear power station
Referring to the schematic flow chart of the assessment method in fig. 1, the assessment method for the nuclear power station water surface security threat in the embodiment includes the following steps:
step S1: identifying risk parts of water-standing area of nuclear power station
And identifying important risk parts of the nuclear power station, confirming weak links and judging the risk values of the weak links. The method comprises the following steps of determining the risk parts of the water area security of the nuclear power station, and respectively carrying out the following steps according to the characteristics of different risk parts:
1.1) judging the possibility L of each risk part suffering from invasion and grading according to the risks, wherein the value of L is divided into four grades such as L1-L4 according to the risks, and the judgment standard of grading is shown in a table 1:
TABLE 1 criteria for determining the probability of intrusion at each risk site
1.2) judging the severity S of each risk part suffering from the invasion consequence and grading according to the damage severity after suffering from the invasion, wherein the S value is divided into three grades of S1-S3 and the like according to the damage severity after suffering from the invasion, and the judgment standard of the grading is shown in Table 2:
TABLE 2 criteria for determining the severity of the intrusion at each risk site
1.3) calculating the risk value of each risk part by adopting a formula p which is L multiplied by S and grading, wherein the risk values are classified into four grades of extremely high risk, medium risk and low risk, and the judgment standard of grading is shown in a table 3:
TABLE 3 determination criteria for risk values faced by each risk site
Through the steps, the risk value of each risk part in the water front area of the nuclear power station can be obtained, and then the risk part of the water front area of the nuclear power station is identified.
Step S2: identifying water surface targets and judging threat degrees T of different targets1
Dangerous targets possibly existing in the surrounding water area of the nuclear power station are identified, and the danger degree indexes, namely the threat degree T, are respectively determined1。
In general, targets on the water surface around the nuclear power plant include large ships, medium fishing boats, small fishing boats, motorboats, rubber boats, yachts, and the like, and the target type of the nuclear power plant can be adjusted according to actual conditions.
Respectively giving indexes to the discovery probability a and the aggressiveness b of each target according to the criterion given in the table 4 or according to the actual situation by adopting an expert evaluation method, wherein the larger the discovery probability is, the larger the value of a is, the easier the discovery is, the larger the aggressiveness is, the larger the value of b is, and the threat degree T of different targets to the nuclear power station is calculated1＝a×b。
TABLE 4 threat level comparison tables for different targets
Step S3: calculating the instant time T of the target reaching the risk part2
According to the real-time detection result of the water surface detection radar, the target distance S and the navigational speed v which possibly threaten the surrounding water area of the nuclear power stationnMonitoring the course, further determining the radial projection speed V of the target and the risk part by judging the target coursen＝vnThe cos theta (theta is more than or equal to 0 degree and less than or equal to 180 degrees) is calculated, and the instant time T of the target reaching the risk part is calculated2＝Sn/VnAs shown in table 5. Because the real-time monitoring data is called in the actual operation process of the section, the variable constant 1 is given to ensure the operation output of a general model when no external input exists.
TABLE 5 calculation method of time for different targets to reach risk part
Step S4: determining target mobility T3
The mobility of dangerous targets that may exist in the water surrounding the nuclear power plant is determined, and the mobility of different targets is shown in table 6. And (4) adjusting the maneuvering capacity of the mobile robot by utilizing an expert evaluation method according to the actual situation. Maneuver capability is the ability of a target maneuver.
TABLE 6 mobility capability comparison table for different targets
Step S5: establishing general models for evaluation
Establishing a general model for water surface target threat assessment, assuming that a water area around a nuclear power station is an ideal scene, arranging n characteristics T of m targets C and the risk weight w of each characteristic into an m (n +1) order matrix D [ x ] by adopting a matrix methodij]m×nAs shown in Table 7, wherein Ci(i-1, 2, … m) are monitored m batches of objects, Tj(j ═ 1,2, … n) is the n pieces of feature information of the target, and the risk weight w is the target CiAt a characteristic TjThe factor affecting the specific risk site is denoted as wm，wmτ × p, where τ is the factor that this feature affects the risk site. The computer-aided calculation is adopted to obtain the risk values of different targets, namely a general model for water surface target threat assessment, and the model can be suitable for risk assessment under general scenes.
TABLE 7 Risk matrix for surface threat assessment
Step S6: establishing typical model of evaluation
And establishing a typical model of the threat assessment of the water surface target. Taking a water surface security system constructed in a certain nuclear power station by adopting the evaluation method of the embodiment as an example, after monitoring a water surface target by a radar and fusing a plurality of monitoring information sources, determining the relevant characteristics of the water surface target, further judging whether the water surface target is a white list target which is allowed to pass, directly pushing the label information of the white list target, firstly judging whether a non-white list target is in an important area (such as a range of 300 m), immediately starting an alarm by a resident target in the range, judging whether the non-resident target is in a public area, a near state or a far state, and outputting the alarm according to the judgment; the target in the non-critical area is determined to be in the monitoring range (such as 5kM), the target in the monitoring range further judges the control position (such as a monitoring area, an alarm area and a disposal area) where the target is located, further judges the time when the target reaches the central point (the middle point of a water intake) of the protected target space, further judges whether the target is in a public area, close to or far away from the public area, and outputs an alarm according to the judgment.
The method for evaluating the water surface security threat of the nuclear power station can realize monitoring, rechecking confirmation, early warning and situation analysis on the water surface intrusion target, can provide a water surface security systematized and intelligent solution for the nuclear power station and the field with the same or similar characteristics, and improves the security protection capability on the water surface intrusion threat.
Embodiment 2 method for preventing water surface security threat of nuclear power station
The method for preventing the nuclear power station water surface security threat of the embodiment firstly needs to establish a prevention system as shown in fig. 2, and the prevention method is established on the prevention system.
Step S1: radar real-time scanning
And the sea surface small target radar of the sea-air detection node scans the monitoring area in real time and uploads the scanning information to the server.
Step S2: data processing and studying and judging
After the radar data is processed by the radar signal processor, the threat degree is automatically judged according to the threat assessment model in embodiment 1. And will not be described in detail herein.
Step S3: checking and obtaining evidence
And the controller guides the photoelectric equipment to detect and recheck and collect evidence of the intrusion target with the highest risk value.
Step S4: analysis and study and judgment
The optical signal processor processes the rechecking evidence-taking information, and further performs data fusion by the multi-source fusion processor, and performs secondary analysis and study and judgment on alarm conditions including distance, time, direction, speed and the like, as shown in fig. 3.
Step S5: display and response
And (3) analyzing and displaying the analysis and intrusion situation studying and judging data of the target by combining a geographic information system to form a water surface threat target situation analyzing and display control subsystem, as shown in fig. 4, and further realizing guidance of safety response of nuclear power handling capacity. FIG. 4 is a command control interface diagram of a water area security system of a certain nuclear power station, which adopts the technical scheme of the application and integrates underwater and low-altitude defense information.
The invention relates to a water surface security threat assessment method and a comprehensive system established by combining the precautionary features of a nuclear power station. The method mainly solves the technical problems of determining a water surface security threat and evaluation model through a scientific method and realizing the water area safety precaution of the nuclear power station through systematic design.
The invention relates to a method for assessing security threats on the water surface of a nuclear power station and a precaution method thereof, wherein the method comprises the following steps: a threat assessment method for attacking a nuclear power station water-side structure or equipment through the water surface and an early warning and prevention method established by a series of technical means under the guidance of the method are disclosed. Wherein: the threat assessment method comprises the following steps: identifying the risk level of the waterfront structure of the nuclear power station, identifying risk factors (targets) of water areas around the nuclear power station, and evaluating the risk degree of the nuclear power station caused by water surface threats; the early warning prevention system comprises: the system comprises a front-end sensing subsystem taking a water surface radar as key monitoring equipment, a rechecking evidence-obtaining subsystem taking a photoelectric device as key equipment, and a display and control subsystem. The construction of the assessment method and the prevention method can fill the blank of the water surface security field of the nuclear power station, and can be extended to other fields with the same or similar characteristics.
The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical concept and features of the present invention, and the purpose thereof is to enable those skilled in the art to understand the content of the present invention and implement the invention, and not to limit the scope of the invention, and all equivalent changes or modifications made according to the spirit of the present invention should be covered by the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A nuclear power station water surface security threat assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) identifying a risk part of a water-standing area of the nuclear power station;
2) identifying risk factors of the surrounding water area of the nuclear power station by identifying the water surface target;
3) and establishing an evaluation model, and evaluating the risk degree of the water surface threat to the nuclear power station.
2. The assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the step 1) of identifying the risk site of the water front area of the nuclear power plant specifically comprises the following steps:
1.1) judging the possibility L of invasion of a building or a structure in a waterfront area and grading according to the risk of the building or the structure;
1.2) judging the severity S of the intrusion effect of the buildings or structures in the waterfront area and grading according to the severity of the loss after the buildings or structures are subjected to intrusion;
1.3) calculating a risk value of a building or a structure in a water front area of the nuclear power station by adopting a formula p which is L multiplied by S, grading, and identifying an air risk part.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the surface target of step 2) comprises a large ship, a medium fishing boat, a small fishing boat, a motorboat, a rubber boat, and a speed boat.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the risk factors of step 2) include a target threat level T1(ii) a Time T of target reaching risk part2(ii) a Target maneuvering capability T3。
5. The assessment method according to claim 4, characterized in that the target threat level T1The judgment comprises the following steps: judging the discovery probability a and the aggressivity b of each water surface target through a formula T1The target threat level is calculated as a × b.
6. The assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the instant time T of the target reaching the risk site2The judgment comprises the following steps: determining the radial distance S and the target speed v of the target from the risk partn(ii) a Calculating radial projection speed V of target and risk part by judging target coursen，Vn＝vnCos theta (theta is more than or equal to 0 degree and less than or equal to 180 degrees); calculating the instant time T of the target reaching the risk part2，T2＝Sn/Vn。
7. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation model of step 3) comprises:
3.1) establishing a general model: establishing a risk matrix D ═ x [ x ] based on a water surface target C, a risk factor T of the target, a risk weight w and an influence factor tauij]m×nCalculating the threat degree sequence of different water surface targets to different risk positions through a risk matrix, and evaluating the risk degree of the water surface threats to the nuclear power station; wherein C isi(i-1, 2, … m) are m targets monitored, Tj(j ═ 1,2, … n) is the n pieces of feature information of the target, and the risk weight w ismIs a target CiAt a characteristic TjInfluence factor on specific risk sites, wmτ × P, where τ is the factor that this feature affects the risk site.
3.2) establishing a typical model: and setting limiting conditions according to the characteristics of production activities and control areas of water areas around the nuclear power station, and establishing a typical evaluation model under a typical situation.
8. Evaluation method according to claim 7, wherein the creation of a representative model of step 3.2) comprises the following steps: setting a monitoring reference point, establishing a monitoring area in a set radius range by taking the monitoring reference point as a center, and setting a monitoring, alarming and handling area in the monitoring area; an alarm-free area is defined according to the production activity condition of a water area around the nuclear power station; and setting a key attention area according to the nuclear power station control range.
9. A method for preventing security threats on the water surface of a nuclear power station is characterized by comprising the following steps: the precaution method comprises the following steps: A. monitoring a water surface target by one or more sets of water surface monitoring radars, converting polar coordinate position information into geographic information, speed information and direction information, and reporting the geographic information, the speed information and the direction information to a server in real time; B. adopting a photoelectric device to carry out rechecking and evidence obtaining, and realizing the matching of the pitching angle and the focal length of the photoelectric device and the tracking of a moving target through a position guide instruction issued by a control end; C. establishing a water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem by combining the assessment method of the nuclear power plant water surface security threat of any one of claims 1 to 8, the step A, B and a geographic information system; D. and C, monitoring, compound evidence obtaining and situation analysis of the nuclear power station water surface threat are realized through the water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem established in the step C, and security response of nuclear power disposal force is guided.
10. The countermeasure method according to claim 9, characterized in that: the precaution method comprises the following steps:
a. identifying a risk part of a water-standing area of the nuclear power station and risk factors of the area by the evaluation method;
b. monitoring a water surface target in real time through a water surface monitoring radar, and uploading the characteristics of the monitored target to a server;
c. analyzing the characteristics of the invading target and judging the threat degree of the invading target through an evaluation model;
d. the photoelectric equipment is guided by the control end to recheck and evidence-taking the coincident target;
e. secondary analysis and judgment of alarm conditions including distance, time, direction and speed;
f. constructing a nuclear power station water surface security response logic architecture by combining a geographic information system;
g. establishing a water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem by combining a geographic information system;
h. and guiding the security response of the nuclear power disposal power through the water surface threat target situation analysis and display control subsystem.
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