CN111832971B - Method, device and equipment for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential - Google Patents
Method, device and equipment for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential Download PDFInfo
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The application discloses a method, a device and equipment for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user; establishing an interruptible load model according to historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve; calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve; calculating the difference between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials; counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential; according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency, a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential is established, and the technical problems that a quantification method aiming at the load demand response potential is not available at present, so that a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the risk of uncertainty of the demand side response is avoided are solved.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of electric power markets, in particular to a method, a device and equipment for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential.
Background
Demand response is an important technical means of demand side management, which means that users respond to prices or incentives and change the original user electricity consumption mode. The proposal of the demand response concept changes the fixed thinking that the ever-increasing power demand is satisfied by solely relying on the development of the power supply side, and utilizes the demand side as a supplementary resource of the power of the supply side. It has been widely used as an effective method capable of alleviating the contradiction between power supply and demand by utilizing the capacity of the existing units. The method has various demand response means, complex combination, multiple influencing factors and larger uncertainty. The uncertainty of future load predictions is also directly increased with the implementation of demand responses. Demand responses are classified into price-based demand responses and incentive-based demand responses. In price-based demand response, research analysis is usually performed between price and demand by using an elastic curve, and uncertainty exists in prediction of the price demand elastic curve. In the demand response based on the excitation, the actual response situation of the user is influenced by external uncertainty factors such as judgment of response benefit by the user, emergency of the next day and the like, so that uncertainty of load demand response potential needs to be quantified.
At present, a quantification method aiming at the load demand response potential is not available, so that a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the risk of uncertainty of the demand side response is avoided.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method, a device and equipment for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty, which are used for solving the technical problems that a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the risk of the demand side response uncertainty cannot be avoided due to the fact that no method for quantifying the load demand response potential exists at present.
In view of this, a first aspect of the present application provides a method for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty, comprising:
acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user;
establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve;
calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve;
calculating the difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials;
counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential;
and establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency.
Optionally, the establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency further includes:
based on the frequency distribution function, a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions are obtained through normal transformation and decomposition;
and adding the normal distribution functions of a plurality of segments to obtain a simplified frequency distribution function.
Optionally, the simplified frequency distribution function is:
wherein f (x) t As a normal distribution function, a t N is the normal transform number, which is the amplitude coefficient.
Optionally, the establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve includes:
establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data and combining a demand response potential constraint and a demand response time constraint to obtain a daily load curve;
the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The power load is used for the user in the mth day t period;
the demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit of the interruptible load of the user in the mth day t period can be reduced respectively;
the demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>The user is engaged in a time period of demand response.
Optionally, the establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency includes:
and establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential by taking the load demand response potential as an x axis and the response frequency as a y axis.
A second aspect of the present application provides a load demand response potential uncertainty quantifying apparatus, comprising: the device comprises an acquisition unit, a first establishment unit, a first calculation unit, a second calculation unit, a statistics unit and a second establishment unit;
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user;
the first establishing unit is used for establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data so as to obtain a daily load curve;
the first calculation unit is used for calculating an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating the difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials;
the statistics unit is used for counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential;
the second establishing unit is configured to establish a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency.
Optionally, the system further comprises a decomposition unit and a summation unit;
the decomposition unit is used for decomposing to obtain a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions through normal transformation based on the frequency distribution function;
and the summing unit is used for adding the normal distribution functions of the segments to obtain a simplified frequency distribution function.
Optionally, the first establishing unit is specifically configured to establish an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data and in combination with a demand response potential constraint and a demand response time constraint, so as to obtain a daily load curve;
the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The power load is used for the user in the mth day t period;
the demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit of the interruptible load of the user in the mth day t period can be reduced respectively;
the demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>The user is engaged in a time period of demand response.
Optionally, the second establishing unit is specifically configured to establish a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential with the load demand response potential as an x axis and the response frequency as a y axis.
A third aspect of the present application provides a device for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty, comprising a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing program codes and transmitting the program codes to the processor;
the processor is configured to perform the method of quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty of any one of the first and second aspects according to instructions in the program code.
From the above technical scheme, the application has the following advantages:
the application discloses a method for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential, which comprises the following steps: acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user; establishing an interruptible load model according to historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve; calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve; calculating the difference between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials; counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential; and establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency.
According to the method, an interruptible load model is built according to historical electricity consumption data of a user to obtain a daily load curve, an ideal daily average load is obtained according to the daily load curve, a plurality of load demand response potentials are obtained through calculation to obtain a difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load, so that the load demand response potential is quantized, finally, a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential is built through the load demand response potential and the response frequency, uncertainty of the demand response potential can be displayed more intuitively by utilizing the frequency distribution function, and the technical problems that at present, a quantization method aiming at the load demand response potential is not available, and therefore a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and a demand side response uncertainty risk is avoided are solved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for quantifying uncertainty in load demand response potential according to an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for quantifying uncertainty in load demand response potential according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The embodiment of the application provides a method, a device and equipment for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty, which are used for solving the technical problems that a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the risk of the demand side response uncertainty cannot be avoided due to the fact that no method for quantifying the load demand response potential exists at present.
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present application more comprehensible, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is apparent that the embodiments described below are only some embodiments of the present application, but not all embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential, including:
step 101, acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user.
And 102, establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve.
The method is characterized in that according to historical electricity consumption data of a user, the electricity consumption load of the user in the mth time period of the user is determined, the load reduction time period can be accepted, the load quantity can be interrupted, and the electricity consumption load of the user can be reduced in each time period, namely the establishment of an interruptible load model is realized.
And 103, calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve.
The establishment of the load model can be interrupted, the electricity load in each period can be obtained, and then the average load on the m th day can be obtained, and the ideal average load on the day is the average value of the maximum average load and the minimum average load on the day in the scheduling period.
User power consumption Q on day m m The method comprises the following steps:
wherein ,to reduce the power load of the user in the mth day t period after the scheduling.
Average load on user day m
According to the power consumption of the user on the m th day and the average load on the m th day, the ideal daily average load of the user, the ideal daily average load Q, can be obtained m The method comprises the following steps:
and 104, calculating the difference between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials.
The difference between the daily load profile and the ideal daily average load is the demand response potential that the user may have at each moment in time. The demand response potential obtained based on the scheduling period m-day load curve is as follows:
wherein ,to cut down the load in the mth day t period, the load amount, i.e. the demand response potential,/for the load can be interrupted>For the user to use the electric load in the mth time period, Q m Is an ideal daily average load.
Step 105, counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential.
It should be noted that, the response frequencies of the loads under different load demand response potentials are different, and therefore, the response frequencies of the loads under the load demand response potentials need to be counted.
And 106, establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency.
According to the embodiment of the application, an interruptible load model is established according to historical electricity consumption data of a user to obtain a daily load curve, an ideal daily average load is obtained according to the daily load curve, a difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load is obtained through calculation, a plurality of load demand response potentials are obtained, so that the load demand response potential is quantized, finally, the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential is counted, a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential is established through the load demand response potential and the response frequency, and the uncertainty of the demand response potential can be displayed more intuitively by utilizing the frequency distribution function, so that the technical problems that a quantization method aiming at the load demand response potential is not available at present, and a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the demand side response uncertainty is avoided are solved.
The above is a detailed description of a first embodiment of a method for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty provided by the present application, and the following is a detailed description of a second embodiment of a method for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty provided by the present application.
Referring to fig. 2, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential, including:
step 201, historical electricity consumption data of a user is obtained.
Step 202, establishing an interruptible load model according to historical electricity consumption data and combining demand response potential constraint and demand response time constraint so as to obtain a daily load curve.
In the power scheduling period, the power load of the user at the mth time period is the mth day. Assume that the load reduction period section acceptable to the user isAccording to the actual scheduling situation, the user is in period +.>Participating in demand response, the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The user is charged for the mth day period.
The demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit, respectively, at which the user can cut off the load during the mth day t period.
The demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>The user is engaged in a time period of demand response.
And 203, calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve.
And 204, calculating the difference between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials.
Step 205, counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential.
It will be appreciated that the response frequency of the load at different load demand response potentials is different and therefore it is desirable to count the response frequency of the load at the load demand response potential.
Step 206, establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential by taking the load demand response potential as an x-axis and the response frequency as a y-axis.
Step 207, decomposing to obtain a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions through normal transformation based on the frequency distribution functions.
It should be noted that the peak value E of the frequency distribution function f (x) of the load demand response potential is found x At E x The left and right sides take n points respectively. In peak value E x Is centered at (E x -n,E x ) Find the first trough in the range, the value of this point is noted as x 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Similarly, with peak value E x Is centered at (E x ,E x Find the first trough in +n) range, this point is noted as x 2 Thereby, Δx=min { (E) is obtained x -x 1 ),(x 2 -E x ) And (E) x -Δx,E x The data points within +Δx are fitted to a normal distribution function f (x) t . And subtracting the normal distribution function from the original frequency distribution function to obtain a new frequency distribution function, and repeating the step of obtaining the normal distribution function all the time to obtain a plurality of sections of normal distribution functions.
Step 208, adding the normal distribution functions to obtain the simplified frequency distribution function.
It should be noted that, the simplified frequency distribution function is:
wherein f (x) t As a normal distribution function, a t N is the normal transform number, which is the amplitude coefficient.
The peak and trough of a small section in the frequency distribution function obtained in the step 206 are found to be fitted into a normal distribution function, the small section is subtracted on the basis of the original frequency distribution function, the peak and trough are found to be fitted into a small section normal distribution function, and finally, the simplified frequency distribution function can be obtained by adding a plurality of sections of normal distribution functions, so that the uncertainty of the load demand response potential can be further quantified, and the uncertainty of the demand response potential can be more intuitively displayed.
According to the embodiment of the application, an interruptible load model is established according to historical electricity consumption data of a user to obtain a daily load curve, an ideal daily average load is obtained according to the daily load curve, a difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load is obtained through calculation, a plurality of load demand response potentials are obtained, so that the load demand response potential is quantized, finally, the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential is counted, a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential is established through the load demand response potential and the response frequency, and the uncertainty of the demand response potential can be displayed more intuitively by utilizing the frequency distribution function, so that the technical problems that a quantization method aiming at the load demand response potential is not available at present, and a demand side management target cannot be scientifically designed and the demand side response uncertainty is avoided are solved.
The above description of the second embodiment of the method for quantifying the uncertainty of the load demand response potential provided by the present application is the following description of the embodiment of the device for quantifying the uncertainty of the load demand response potential provided by the present application.
Referring to fig. 3, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for quantifying uncertainty of load demand response potential, including: an acquisition unit 301, a first establishment unit 302, a first calculation unit 303, a second calculation unit 304, a statistics unit 305, and a second establishment unit 306;
an acquiring unit 301, configured to acquire historical electricity consumption data of a user;
a first establishing unit 302, configured to establish an interruptible load model according to historical electricity consumption data, so as to obtain a daily load curve;
a first calculating unit 303, configured to calculate an ideal daily average load according to a daily load curve;
the second calculating unit 304 is configured to calculate a difference between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load, so as to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials;
a statistics unit 305, configured to count a response frequency of the load under a load demand response potential;
the second establishing unit 306 is configured to establish a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency.
As a further improvement, the present embodiment further includes a decomposition unit 307 and a summation unit 308;
a decomposition unit 307, configured to obtain a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions by normal transformation decomposition based on the frequency distribution functions;
and a summing unit 308, configured to add the segments of normal distribution functions to obtain a simplified frequency distribution function.
It should be noted that, the simplified frequency distribution function is:
wherein f (x) t As a normal distribution function, a t N is the normal transform number, which is the amplitude coefficient.
As a further improvement, the first establishing unit 302 in this embodiment is specifically configured to establish an interruptible load model according to historical electricity consumption data in combination with a demand response potential constraint and a demand response time constraint, so as to obtain a daily load curve;
the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The user is charged for the mth day period.
The demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit, respectively, at which the user can cut off the load during the mth day t period.
The demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>The user is engaged in a time period of demand response.
As a further improvement, the second establishing unit 306 in this embodiment is specifically configured to establish the frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential with the load demand response potential as the x-axis and the response frequency as the y-axis.
The embodiment of the application also provides a device for quantifying the uncertainty of the load demand response potential, which comprises a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing the program codes and transmitting the program codes to the processor;
the processor is configured to perform the method of quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty described in the above embodiments according to instructions in the program code.
It will be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described network, apparatus and units may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, which are not repeated herein.
In the several embodiments provided by the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other manners. For example, the above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is merely a logical function division, and there may be other manners of division in actual implementation, for example, multiple units or components may be combined or may be integrated into another power network to be installed, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be an indirect coupling or communication connection via some interfaces, devices or units, which may be in electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate units may or may not be physically separate, and units shown as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional unit in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit. The integrated units may be implemented in hardware or in software functional units.
The integrated units, if implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as stand-alone products, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present application may be embodied essentially or in part or all of the technical solution or in part in the form of a software product stored in a storage medium, including instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method according to the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a usb disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM, randomAccessMemory), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk, or other various media capable of storing program codes.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present application, and not for limiting the same; although the application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.
Claims (5)
1. A method for quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty, comprising:
acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user;
establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data to obtain a daily load curve, wherein the method comprises the following steps of:
establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data and combining a demand response potential constraint and a demand response time constraint to obtain a daily load curve;
the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The power load is used for the user in the mth day t period;
the demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit of the interruptible load of the user in the mth day t period can be reduced respectively;
the demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>A time period for the user to participate in the demand response;
the method further comprises the steps of:
calculating to obtain an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve;
calculating the difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials;
counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential;
establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency, and then further comprising:
based on the frequency distribution function, a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions are obtained through normal transformation and decomposition;
adding the normal distribution functions of a plurality of segments to obtain a simplified frequency distribution function,
the simplified frequency distribution function is:
wherein f (x) t As a normal distribution function, a t N is the normal transform number, which is the amplitude coefficient.
2. The method of quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty of claim 1, wherein said establishing a frequency distribution function of said load demand response potential from said load demand response potential and said response frequency comprises:
and establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential by taking the load demand response potential as an x axis and the response frequency as a y axis.
3. A load demand response potential uncertainty quantifying apparatus, comprising: the device comprises an acquisition unit, a first establishment unit, a first calculation unit, a second calculation unit, a statistics unit and a second establishment unit;
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring historical electricity utilization data of a user;
the first establishing unit is used for establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data so as to obtain a daily load curve;
the first establishing unit is specifically configured to: establishing an interruptible load model according to the historical electricity consumption data and combining a demand response potential constraint and a demand response time constraint to obtain a daily load curve;
the interruptible load model is:
wherein ,to cut down the user's power load during the mth day t period after scheduling +.>In order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.>The power load is used for the user in the mth day t period;
the demand response potential constraints are:
wherein ,in order to cut down the load amount that the load can be interrupted in the mth t period +.> and />The upper limit and the lower limit of the interruptible load of the user in the mth day t period can be reduced respectively;
the demand response time constraint is:
wherein ,load shedding time period acceptable for the user, < +.>A time period for the user to participate in the demand response;
the apparatus further comprises:
the first calculation unit is used for calculating an ideal daily average load according to the daily load curve;
the second calculation unit is used for calculating the difference value between the daily load curve and the ideal daily average load to obtain a plurality of load demand response potentials;
the statistics unit is used for counting the response frequency of the load under the load demand response potential;
the second establishing unit is used for establishing a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential according to the load demand response potential and the response frequency,
the device also comprises a decomposition unit and a summation unit;
the decomposition unit is used for decomposing to obtain a plurality of segments of normal distribution functions through normal transformation based on the frequency distribution function;
the summing unit is configured to add the normal distribution functions of the segments to obtain a simplified frequency distribution function, where the simplified frequency distribution function is:
wherein f (x) t As a normal distribution function, a t N is the normal transform number, which is the amplitude coefficient.
4. A device for quantifying uncertainty of a load demand response potential according to claim 3, wherein the second establishing unit is specifically configured to establish a frequency distribution function of the load demand response potential with the load demand response potential as an x-axis and the response frequency as a y-axis.
5. A device for quantifying uncertainty in load demand response potential, comprising a memory and a processor;
the memory is used for storing program codes and transmitting the program codes to the processor;
the processor is configured to perform the method of quantifying load demand response potential uncertainty of any of claims 1 to 2 according to instructions in the program code.
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