CN111832806A

CN111832806A - Prediction method and device of fund flow and terminal equipment

Info

Publication number: CN111832806A
Application number: CN202010519373.5A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 张欢; 赖瑜; 朱敏; 李丹; 陈利; 许路
Original assignee: Shenzhen Rongyimai Information Technology Co ltd
Current assignee: Shenzhen Rongyimai Information Technology Co ltd
Priority date: 2020-06-09
Filing date: 2020-06-09
Publication date: 2020-10-27

Abstract

The application is applicable to the technical field of prediction algorithms, and provides a method, a device and a terminal device for predicting fund flow, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring a first overdue mobility of each loan fund to be repacked at a target time and a second overdue mobility corresponding to a difference compensation overdue grade; calculating a repayment fund predicted value of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate; calculating a difference fund prediction value paid out at the target time based on the residual principal to be paid out of the lender in the last prediction period of the target time and the second overdue migration rate; the fund flow of the target time is predicted through the overdue migration rate, so that the fund flow prediction is more accurate, the fund flow condition of the target time can be mastered in advance through the predicted fund flow condition, the fund scheduling is adjusted in time, and the problem of the fund is avoided.

Description

Prediction method and device of fund flow and terminal equipment

Technical Field

The present application belongs to the technical field of prediction algorithms, and in particular, to a method, an apparatus, and a terminal device for predicting a fund flow.

Background

The fund flow refers to the process of transferring funds between different accounts, for example, account A transfers C element to account B, which can be called a fund flow. The financial company needs to collect and release money every month, a large amount of funds flow, and if the fund flow is abnormal, the fund problem is brought to the financial company, and the normal operation of the financial company is influenced.

Currently, a financial company usually predicts the monthly fund flow operation condition in advance to adjust future fund scheduling, so as to avoid the influence of fund problems on the company. Therefore, how to accurately predict the fund flow is a key problem to be solved at present.

Disclosure of Invention

The embodiment of the application provides a method, a device and a terminal device for predicting a fund flow, which can solve the problem of low accuracy of prediction of the current fund flow.

In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for predicting a fund flow, including:

acquiring a first overdue mobility of each loan fund to be repacked and a second overdue mobility corresponding to a difference compensation overdue grade at a target time, wherein the difference compensation overdue grade is the previous grade of the overdue grade corresponding to the difference compensation repayment of the loan fund;

calculating a repayment fund predicted value of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate;

and calculating a predicted value of the difference fund paid at the target time based on the residual principal to be paid and the second overdue migration rate of the borrower in the last prediction period of the target time.

In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for predicting a fund flow, including:

the data acquisition module is used for acquiring a first overdue mobility of each payable fund at a target time and a second overdue mobility corresponding to a difference compensation overdue grade, wherein the difference compensation overdue grade is the previous grade of the overdue grade corresponding to difference compensation repayment of the payable fund;

the repayment fund prediction module is used for calculating a repayment fund prediction value of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate;

and the difference fund prediction module is used for calculating a difference fund prediction value paid out at the target time based on the residual principal to be returned of the lender in the last prediction period of the target time and the second overdue migration rate.

In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a terminal device, including: a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method for predicting a fund flow according to any one of the first aspect when executing the computer program.

In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored, and the computer program is configured to, when executed by a processor, implement the method for predicting a fund flow according to any one of the above first aspects.

In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product, which, when run on a terminal device, causes the terminal device to execute the method for predicting a fund flow according to any one of the above first aspects.

It is understood that the beneficial effects of the second aspect to the fifth aspect can be referred to the related description of the first aspect, and are not described herein again.

Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the application has the advantages that: the method comprises the steps of predicting a repayment fund predicted value at the target time through the first overdue migration rate and the loan fund to be repacked at the target time; predicting a difference compensation fund prediction value required to be paid out at the target time through the second overdue migration rate and the residual payable fund of the last prediction period; the fund flow of the target time is predicted through the overdue migration rate, so that the fund flow prediction is more accurate, the fund flow condition of the target time can be mastered in advance through the predicted fund flow condition, the fund scheduling is adjusted in time, and the problem of the fund is avoided.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise.

Fig. 1 is a schematic view of an application scenario of a method for predicting a fund flow according to an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for predicting a fund flow according to an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating the first and second past-term mobilities of FIG. 2 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;

FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a method for calculating the average over-term mobility of FIG. 3 according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;

FIG. 5 is a schematic flowchart of a method for calculating a predicted repayment fund value in FIG. 1 according to an embodiment of the present application;

FIG. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting a fund flow according to an embodiment of the present application;

fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of a terminal device according to an embodiment of the present application;

fig. 8 is a block diagram of a partial structure of a computer according to an embodiment of the present application.

Detailed Description

In the following description, for purposes of explanation and not limitation, specific details are set forth, such as particular system structures, techniques, etc. in order to provide a thorough understanding of the embodiments of the present application. It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art that the present application may be practiced in other embodiments that depart from these specific details. In other instances, detailed descriptions of well-known systems, devices, circuits, and methods are omitted so as not to obscure the description of the present application with unnecessary detail.

It will be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising," when used in this specification and the appended claims, specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.

It should also be understood that the term "and/or" as used in this specification and the appended claims refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

As used in this specification and the appended claims, the term "if" may be interpreted contextually as "when", "upon" or "in response to" determining "or" in response to detecting ". Similarly, the phrase "if it is determined" or "if a [ described condition or event ] is detected" may be interpreted contextually to mean "upon determining" or "in response to determining" or "upon detecting [ described condition or event ]" or "in response to detecting [ described condition or event ]".

Furthermore, in the description of the present application and the appended claims, the terms "first," "second," "third," and the like are used for distinguishing between descriptions and not necessarily for describing or implying relative importance.

Reference throughout this specification to "one embodiment" or "some embodiments," or the like, means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in one or more embodiments of the present application. Thus, appearances of the phrases "in one embodiment," "in some embodiments," "in other embodiments," or the like, in various places throughout this specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, but rather "one or more but not all embodiments" unless specifically stated otherwise. The terms "comprising," "including," "having," and variations thereof mean "including, but not limited to," unless expressly specified otherwise.

Fig. 1 is a schematic view of an application scenario of a method for predicting a fund flow provided in an embodiment of the present application, where the method for predicting a fund flow may be used to predict a fund flow situation of a target time. The processor 20 is configured to obtain funds in the storage device 10, calculate a first overdue migration rate and a second overdue migration rate according to the obtained funds, and finally calculate a repayment fund predicted value and a difference fund predicted value of a target time according to the obtained remaining funds to be returned, the first overdue migration rate and the second overdue migration rate, so as to predict a fund flow situation of the target time.

The method for predicting the fund flow in the embodiment of the present application is described in detail below with reference to fig. 1.

Fig. 2 shows a schematic flow chart of a prediction method of the fund flow provided by the present application, and referring to fig. 2, the details of the prediction method are as follows:

s101, a first overdue migration rate of each loan fund to be repacked and a second overdue migration rate corresponding to a difference compensation overdue grade are obtained at a target time, wherein the difference compensation overdue grade is the previous grade of the overdue grade corresponding to difference compensation repayment of the repacked fund.

In the embodiment, the financial company mostly performs statistics in a unit of a month when the capital condition is counted, and the capital condition is counted by counting the capital flow of each month; generally, the forecast of the fund flow is forecast of the fund flow after the month, so the target time may be the next month or a certain month after the month.

In this embodiment, one lender may correspond to multiple lenders, and several lenders may need several contracts, i.e., several loan funds. The repayment fund refers to the fund corresponding to the lender that the lender should pay at the target time, for example, A, B, C three lenders need to pay in 3 months, and 3 loans should be paid in 3 months.

In this embodiment, the overdue level means a different level set according to the number of overdue days, in which payment is not made at the time of payment.

By way of example, the overdue rating may include the following 12 ratings, respectively:

m0: no overdue;

m1: the number of days out of date is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 30;

m2: the number of days out of date is more than or equal to 31 and less than or equal to 60;

m3: the number of days out of date is more than or equal to 61 and less than or equal to 90;

m4: 91 or more days out of date is less than or equal to 120;

m5: the number of days out of date is more than or equal to 121 and less than or equal to 150;

m6: the number of days out of date is more than or equal to 151 and less than or equal to 180;

m7: 181 or more and 210 or less days after expiration;

m8: 211 is less than or equal to 240 days after expiration;

m9: 241 is less than or equal to 270 days after expiration;

m10: 271 is less than or equal to 300 days after expiration;

m11: 301 is less than or equal to 330 days after expiration;

m12: 331 is less than or equal to 360.

The difference compensation overdue level is the upper level of the overdue level corresponding to difference compensation repayment of the repayment fund, and can be set according to requirements, for example, if the overdue days are more than 90 days, difference compensation is required, the overdue levels are all after M4, and the difference compensation overdue level is M3.

Overdue migration refers to the probability of loan funds shifting from one overdue level to the next, e.g., overdue migration at overdue level M1 refers to the probability of loan funds shifting from overdue level M1 to overdue level M2, e.g., M1-M2 corresponds to an overdue migration and M2-M3 corresponds to an overdue migration.

As shown in fig. 3, in a possible implementation manner, the implementation process of step S101 may include:

s1011, obtaining the remaining principal to be returned and the overdue level of each remaining principal to be returned in each prediction period in the history period.

In this embodiment, the historical period is the total historical time length, and may be 6 months, 3 months, or 2 months before the target time, the prediction period may be 1 month or 2 months, and the like, and both the historical period and the prediction period may be set as needed.

The remaining payable amount for each prediction period refers to the number of all payable amounts remaining in the loan funds up to the prediction period, one loan contract corresponds to one remaining payable amount, for example, one loan fund is 800 yuan, the total payable amount for the first two months is 200 yuan, the payable amount is completed by 2 months, and the remaining payable amount is 600 yuan.

If the loan fund has overdue fund and is not yet returned in the repayment period, the overdue grade corresponding to the overdue days till the current prediction period is the overdue grade of the remaining principal to be returned.

By way of example, the loan contract a has loan funds of 1000 yuan, which are paid out in 5 months, and on average, a payment of 200 yuan is required every month 15, taking the third month as the current prediction period as an example:

the loan party has the first month repayment of 200, the second month repayment of 100 and the third month repayment of 200 yuan, and the surplus till the third month is 500 from the loan party to the loan party with the principal of 1000-; by the third overdue 45 days, the overdue level is M2, and the corresponding overdue level for the remaining principal is M2.

And S1012, calculating the average overdue migration rate between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period in the historical period based on the residual fund to be returned and the overdue grade of each residual fund to be returned.

In this embodiment, the method for predicting the fund flow needs to use the overdue mobility in the history period, and the known calculation using the average value of several values is more accurate than the calculation using a certain value, so that the average overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue levels in the history period needs to be calculated.

Each prediction period can contain a plurality of loan contracts to be paid, the remaining principal to be paid and the overdue days of each loan contract are different, and the overdue grades corresponding to the different overdue days are also different, so according to the remaining principal to be paid and the overdue grades in each prediction period, the overdue migration rate between the adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period can be calculated respectively, and then the average overdue migration rate between the two adjacent overdue grades in the history period can be calculated according to the calculated overdue migration rate between the adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period.

As shown in fig. 4, in a possible implementation manner, the implementation process of step S1012 may include:

s10121, calculating overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period by adopting a mobility calculation model.

In this embodiment, the mobility calculation model is used for calculating the overdue mobility, and may be a calculation formula, and the calculation of the overdue mobility using the mobility calculation model may more accurately and rapidly calculate the overdue mobility.

In one possible implementation manner, the implementation procedure of step S10121 may include:

using a formula

Calculating the overdue mobility between the ith overdue level and the (i-1) th overdue level in the jth prediction period, wherein (M)_i-1→M_i)t_jIndicating the overdue mobility between the ith overdue level and the (i-1) th overdue level in the jth prediction period,

indicating that the residual corresponding to the ith overdue level in the jth prediction period should be paid,

and the residual fund corresponding to the i-1 overdue level in the j-1 prediction period is shown.

For example, if the current prediction period is the third prediction period, the overdue level of one remaining fund to be returned in the current prediction period is M2, the remaining fund to be returned is 300, and the overdue level of the remaining fund to be returned in the second prediction period is M1 is 500, the overdue mobility of M1 → M2 is:

it should be noted that if there are multiple contracts remaining principal fees at the same overdue level within one prediction period, the overdue migration rates are jointly calculated according to the sum of the remaining principal fees at the same overdue level.

S10122, calculating the average value of the overdue mobility of the two adjacent overdue grades in the history period to obtain the average overdue mobility between the two adjacent overdue grades.

In this embodiment, calculating the average overdue mobility averages the overdue mobility between the same two overdue levels in all prediction periods in the history period.

By way of example, the overdue mobility in the first prediction period includes: m0 → M1 is 0.5, M1 → M2 is 0.4, M3 → M4 is 0.4; the overdue mobility in the second prediction period includes: m0 → M1 is 0.6, M1 → M2 is 0.5, M4 → M5 is 0.4; the overdue mobility in the third prediction period includes: m0 → M1 is 0.3, M2 → M3 is 0.4, M3 → M4 is 0.5; the average over-term mobility is then:

m0 → M1 is (0.5+0.6+0.3)/3 ═ 0.47;

m1 → M2 is (0.4+0.5)/2 ═ 0.45;

m2 → M3 is 0.4;

m3 → M4 is (0.4+0.5)/2 ═ 0.45;

m4 → M5 is 0.4.

And S1013, acquiring the overdue level of each loan fund to be paid back of the target time.

In this embodiment, the overdue level of the repayment fund for the target time may be determined according to the overdue level of the principal to be paid remaining in the previous prediction period of the target time, and the overdue level of the repayment fund for the target time is the next overdue level of the principal to be paid remaining in the previous prediction period.

For example, if the target time is next month, the overdue level of the principal to be paid in one month is M2, and the corresponding overdue level of the principal to be paid in the next month is M3.

S1014, the average overdue migration rate corresponding to the overdue level of each loan fund to be repacked and the previous overdue level is used as the first overdue migration rate.

In this embodiment, since the overdue mobility refers to a probability that the loan fund of the previous overdue level is transferred to the next overdue level, it should be a probability that the loan fund is transferred from the overdue level corresponding to the previous prediction period of the target time to the overdue level corresponding to the target time when the fund is paid for the target time, and thus, the first overdue mobility refers to an overdue mobility between the overdue level of the target time and the previous overdue level.

By way of example, the overdue rank of the payoff funds is M2, and the first overdue mobility is the average overdue mobility of M1 → M2.

S1015, the average overdue mobility corresponding to the difference-complementary overdue level and the next overdue level is used as the second overdue mobility.

In this embodiment, the overdue level of the difference compensation is the previous level of the overdue level corresponding to the repayment fund, the difference compensation is required to be performed when the next overdue level of the difference compensation is reached, and the second overdue mobility refers to the overdue mobility between the overdue level of the difference compensation and the next overdue level, that is, the overdue mobility between the overdue level of the difference compensation and the previous overdue level, because the difference compensation condition is predicted, that is, the probability that the fund is transferred to the overdue level required to be performed with the difference compensation.

By way of example, the poor complement overdue rating is M2, and the second overdue mobility is the average overdue mobility of M2 → M3.

S102, calculating a repayment fund predicted value of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate.

In this embodiment, the payback funds generally include: principal deposit, interest and cost are to be paid, so the predicted value of the fund to pay comprises: repayment principal predicted value, repayment interest predicted value and repayment expense predicted value.

The charge to be paid may include handling charge, service charge, and the like.

As shown in fig. 5, in a possible implementation manner, the implementation process of step S102 may include:

and S1021, determining the predicted repayment principal value based on the first overdue migration rate and the principal to be repayed of the loan party at the target time.

In one possible implementation manner, the implementation procedure of step S1021 may include:

and calculating the product of the principal to be paid and the first overdue mobility, and taking the difference of the principal to be paid and the product as the predicted value of the repayment principal.

As an example, the calculation of the repayment principal prediction value may include:

repayment principal predicted value should be repayment principal (1-first overdue mobility).

And S1022, determining the repayment interest predicted value based on the first overdue migration rate and the interest to be paid by the lender in the target time.

In one possible implementation manner, the implementation procedure of step S1022 may include:

and calculating the product of the interest to be paid and the first overdue mobility, and taking the difference of the interest to be paid and the product as the repayment interest predicted value.

By way of example, the calculation of the repayment interest prediction value may include:

repayment interest prediction should also interest (1-first overdue mobility).

And S1023, determining the repayment expense predicted value based on the first overdue migration rate and the charge to be paid of the lender in the target time.

In one possible implementation manner, the implementation procedure of step S1023 may include:

and calculating the product of the charge to be paid and the first overdue migration rate, and taking the difference of the charge to be paid and the product as the predicted repayment cost value.

By way of example, the calculation of the payment cost prediction value may include:

repayment cost prediction value is the cost to be repayed (1-first overdue mobility).

And S103, calculating a predicted value of the difference fund paid at the target time based on the residual principal to be returned of the lender in the last prediction period of the target time and the second overdue migration rate.

In this embodiment, the remaining balance fund of the previous prediction period refers to the remaining balance fund of which the overdue level in the previous prediction period is the bad-complement overdue level.

Because the difference fund to be predicted is the fund reaching the overdue level corresponding to the difference at the target time, the fund condition that the residual fund to be predicted in the overdue level in the previous prediction period is transferred to the next overdue level needs to be predicted.

By way of example, if the differential complement overdue rating is M2, the remainder of the previous prediction period should be paid more than the remainder of the overdue rating M2.

In a possible implementation manner, the implementation process of step S103 may include:

and S1031, calculating the sum of the remaining principal fund to be saved at the overdue level in the last prediction period of the target time, and taking the product of the sum and the second overdue migration rate as the predicted value of the overdue fund.

By way of example, the calculation of the difference fund prediction value may include:

the predicted difference fund value is (L1+ L2 … + Ln) second overdue mobility, where Ln is the remaining principal fund of the difference fund overdue class.

In the embodiment of the application, the average overdue migration rate between two adjacent overdue levels in a history period is calculated by using historical data, the first overdue migration rate is determined according to the overdue level corresponding to the loan repayment fund of the target time, and then the repayment principal predicted value, the repayment interest predicted value and the repayment expense predicted value are calculated respectively according to the first overdue migration rate and the loan repayment. And determining a second overdue migration rate according to the set overdue level and the average overdue migration rate, and further calculating a predicted value of the differential fund. The fund flow is calculated according to the overdue migration rate, so that the predicted fund flow is more accurate, and a guiding function can be brought to later-stage fund scheduling.

For ease of understanding, the following description is given in one embodiment:

the month is 7 months, the repayment fund prediction value and the difference compensation fund prediction value of the next month, the repayment fund of 8 months is A, B, wherein the principal 200 should be paid in 8 months A, the interest 100 should be paid in 8 months A, and the cost 50 should be paid; in 8 months B, the principal should be returned to 100, the interest should be returned to 80, and the cost should be returned to 60; the poor complement overdue rating is M3.

S201, acquiring fund data of each month in 4 historical months, wherein the fund data are respectively shown in the following table 1:

TABLE 1

The remaining principal to be paid for each overdue level for each month from 4 months to 7 months is listed in table 1.

It should be noted that the remaining funds to be returned in each overdue level in M0 is the total number of all remaining funds to be returned in the overdue level M0, which may be the remaining funds to be returned in one loan fund or the sum of the remaining funds to be returned in a plurality of loan funds, and M1-M4 are the total number of remaining funds to be returned in the overdue level as in M0.

S202, respectively calculating the overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each month by adopting a mobility calculation model.

And (5) month: the overdue mobility of M0 → M1 is:

the overdue mobility of M1 → M2 is:

the overdue mobility of M2 → M3 is:

the overdue mobility of M3 → M4 is:

and 6, month: the overdue mobility of M0 → M1 is:

the overdue mobility of M1 → M2 is:

the overdue mobility of M2 → M3 is:

the overdue mobility of M3 → M4 is:

and 7, month: the overdue mobility of M0 → M1 is:

the overdue mobility of M1 → M2 is:

the overdue mobility of M2 → M3 is:

the overdue mobility of M3 → M4 is:

s203, calculating the average overdue mobility between each two adjacent overdue grades.

The average over-term mobility of M0 → M1 is:

the average over-term mobility of M1 → M2 is:

the average over-term mobility of M2 → M3 is:

the average over-term mobility of M3 → M4 is:

and S204, obtaining A, B overdue levels of the payable funds in 8 months.

The overdue grade of the fund A to be repacked in the last prediction period is M0, and the overdue grade of the fund A to be repacked in 8 months is M1.

The overdue grade of the fund B to be repacked in the last prediction period is M2, and the overdue grade of the fund B to be repacked in 8 months is M3.

S205, a first overdue mobility corresponding to the repayment fund A, B and a second overdue mobility corresponding to the poor compensation overdue level are determined.

The payoff fund a corresponds to a first overdue mobility of M0 → an average overdue mobility of 0.73 of M1;

the first overdue mobility corresponding to the repayment fund B is M2 → the average overdue mobility of M3 is 0.71;

the second overdue mobility corresponding to the poor complement overdue rating is M2 → the average overdue mobility of M3 is 0.71.

S206, calculating repayment fund predicted values corresponding to the repayment funds A, B respectively.

Payoff fund a: repayment principal predicted value should be repayment principal (1-first overdue mobility) 200 ═ 1-0.73 ═ 54;

the repayment interest prediction value should also be 100 (1-first overdue mobility) 27.

The predicted repayment cost value is 50 (1-first overdue mobility) and 13.5.

Similarly, the funds should be credited B: repayment principal predicted value is 100 (1-0.71) and 29;

repayment interest prediction value is 80 (1-0.71) 23.2;

the predicted repayment fee is 60 (1-0.71) and 17.4.

And S207, obtaining the residual fund to be paid of the overdue grade of the poor benefit in 7 months, and calculating the predicted value of the poor benefit fund.

If the residual difference supplement overdue level in 7 months is still 100, then:

the predicted difference compensation fund value is 100 x 0.71 x 71.

It should be understood that, the sequence numbers of the steps in the foregoing embodiments do not imply an execution sequence, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by its function and inherent logic, and should not constitute any limitation to the implementation process of the embodiments of the present application.

Corresponding to the method for predicting the fund flow described in the above embodiment, fig. 6 shows a block diagram of a device for predicting the fund flow provided in the embodiment of the present application, and for convenience of description, only the relevant parts of the embodiment of the present application are shown.

Referring to fig. 6, the apparatus 200 may include: a data acquisition module 210, a repayment funds prediction module 220, and a poor compensation funds prediction module 230.

The data acquisition module 210 is configured to acquire a first overdue mobility of each repayment fund at a target time and a second overdue mobility corresponding to a overdue level, where the overdue level is a previous level of the overdue level for the corresponding repayment fund;

a repayment fund prediction module 210, configured to calculate a predicted value of repayment fund of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate;

and a difference fund prediction module 230, configured to calculate a predicted value of difference fund paid at the target time based on the remaining principal to be returned of the lender in the last prediction period of the target time and the second overdue migration rate.

In a possible implementation manner, the data obtaining module 210 may specifically include:

the first data acquisition unit is used for acquiring the remaining principal to be returned and the overdue level of each remaining principal to be returned in each prediction period in the history period;

the mobility calculating unit is used for calculating the average overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period in the historical period based on the residual fund to be returned and the overdue grade of each residual fund to be returned;

the second data acquisition unit is used for acquiring the overdue level of each loan fund to be paid in the target time;

a first overdue migration rate determining unit, configured to use an average overdue migration rate corresponding to an overdue level of each loan-repayment fund and a previous overdue level as a first overdue migration rate;

a second overdue mobility determining unit configured to determine an average overdue mobility corresponding to between the poor-complement overdue level and a next overdue level as a second overdue mobility.

In a possible implementation manner, the mobility calculating unit may specifically include:

the first calculating subunit is used for calculating the overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period by adopting a mobility calculation model;

and the second calculating subunit is used for calculating the average value of the overdue mobility corresponding to the two adjacent overdue grades in the history period to obtain the average overdue mobility between the two adjacent overdue grades.

In a possible implementation manner, the first computing subunit may specifically be configured to:

using a formula

In one possible implementation, the repayment fund prediction value includes: a repayment principal prediction value, a repayment interest prediction value and a repayment expense prediction value;

the repayment fund prediction module 220 may specifically include:

the principal prediction unit is used for determining the predicted value of the repayment principal based on the first overdue migration rate and the principal to be repayed of the loan party at the target time;

the interest prediction unit is used for determining the repayment interest prediction value based on the first overdue migration rate and the interest to be paid by the lender in the target time;

and the fee prediction unit is used for determining the repayment fee prediction value based on the first overdue migration rate and the repayment fee of the lender in the target time.

In a possible implementation manner, the principal prediction unit may specifically be configured to:

In one possible implementation, the poor fund prediction module 230 may be specifically configured to:

and calculating the sum of the remaining principal funds to be returned at the overdue level in the last prediction period of the target time, and taking the product of the sum and the second overdue migration rate as the predicted value of the overdue fund.

It should be noted that, for the information interaction, execution process, and other contents between the above-mentioned devices/units, the specific functions and technical effects thereof are based on the same concept as those of the embodiment of the method of the present application, and specific reference may be made to the part of the embodiment of the method, which is not described herein again.

It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, only the above-mentioned division of the functional units and modules is illustrated, and in practical applications, the above-mentioned function distribution may be performed by different functional units and modules according to needs, that is, the internal structure of the apparatus is divided into different functional units or modules to perform all or part of the above-mentioned functions. Each functional unit and module in the embodiments may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated in one unit, and the integrated unit may be implemented in a form of hardware, or in a form of software functional unit. In addition, specific names of the functional units and modules are only for convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used for limiting the protection scope of the present application. The specific working processes of the units and modules in the system may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.

An embodiment of the present application further provides a terminal device, and referring to fig. 7, the terminal device 300 may include: at least one processor 310, a memory 320, and a computer program stored in the memory 320 and operable on the at least one processor 310, wherein the processor 310, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of any of the above-mentioned method embodiments, such as the steps S101 to S103 in the embodiment shown in fig. 2. Alternatively, the processor 310, when executing the computer program, implements the functions of the modules/units in the above-described device embodiments, such as the functions of the modules 210 to 230 shown in fig. 6.

Illustratively, the computer program may be divided into one or more modules/units, which are stored in the memory 320 and executed by the processor 310 to accomplish the present application. The one or more modules/units may be a series of computer program segments capable of performing specific functions, which are used to describe the execution of the computer program in the terminal device 300.

Those skilled in the art will appreciate that fig. 7 is merely an example of a terminal device and is not limiting and may include more or fewer components than shown, or some components may be combined, or different components such as input output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.

The Processor 310 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, discrete Gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, etc. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like.

The memory 320 may be an internal storage unit of the terminal device, or may be an external storage device of the terminal device, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), and the like. The memory 320 is used for storing the computer programs and other programs and data required by the terminal device. The memory 320 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.

The bus may be an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, an Extended ISA (EISA) bus, or the like. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of illustration, the buses in the figures of the present application are not limited to only one bus or one type of bus.

The method for predicting the fund flow provided by the embodiment of the application can be applied to terminal equipment such as a computer, a tablet computer, a notebook computer, a netbook, a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) and the like, and the embodiment of the application does not limit the specific type of the terminal equipment at all.

Take the terminal device as a computer as an example. Fig. 8 is a block diagram showing a partial structure of a computer provided in an embodiment of the present application. Referring to fig. 8, the computer includes: a communication circuit 510, a memory 520, an input unit 530, a display unit 540, an audio circuit 550, a wireless fidelity (WiFi) module 560, a processor 570, and a power supply 580.

The following describes each component of the computer in detail with reference to fig. 8:

the communication circuit 510 may be used for receiving and transmitting signals during information transmission and reception or during a call, and in particular, receives an image sample transmitted by the image capturing device and then processes the image sample to the processor 570; in addition, the image acquisition instruction is sent to the image acquisition device. Typically, the communication circuit includes, but is not limited to, an antenna, at least one Amplifier, a transceiver, a coupler, a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA), a duplexer, and the like. In addition, the communication circuit 510 may also communicate with networks and other devices via wireless communication. The wireless communication may use any communication standard or protocol, including but not limited to Global System for Mobile communication (GSM), General Packet Radio Service (GPRS), Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA), Long Term Evolution (LTE), email, Short Messaging Service (SMS), etc.

The memory 520 may be used to store software programs and modules, and the processor 570 performs various functional applications of the computer and data processing by operating the software programs and modules stored in the memory 520. The memory 520 may mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application program required by at least one function (such as a sound playing function, an image playing function, etc.), and the like; the storage data area may store data (such as audio data, a phonebook, etc.) created according to the use of the computer, etc. Further, the memory 520 may include high speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other volatile solid state storage device.

The input unit 530 may be used to receive input numeric or character information and generate key signal inputs related to user settings and function control of the computer. Specifically, the input unit 530 may include a touch panel 531 and other input devices 532. The touch panel 531, also called a touch screen, can collect touch operations of a user on or near the touch panel 531 (for example, operations of the user on or near the touch panel 531 by using any suitable object or accessory such as a finger or a stylus pen), and drive the corresponding connection device according to a preset program. Alternatively, the touch panel 531 may include two parts, a touch detection device and a touch controller. The touch detection device detects the touch direction of a user, detects a signal brought by touch operation and transmits the signal to the touch controller; the touch controller receives touch information from the touch sensing device, converts the touch information into touch point coordinates, and sends the touch point coordinates to the processor 570, and can receive and execute commands sent by the processor 570. In addition, the touch panel 531 may be implemented by various types such as a resistive type, a capacitive type, an infrared ray, and a surface acoustic wave. The input unit 530 may include other input devices 532 in addition to the touch panel 531. In particular, other input devices 532 may include, but are not limited to, one or more of a physical keyboard, function keys (such as volume control keys, switch keys, etc.), a trackball, a mouse, a joystick, and the like.

The display unit 540 may be used to display information input by a user or information provided to the user and various menus of the computer. The display unit 540 may include a display panel 541, and optionally, the display panel 541 may be configured in the form of a Liquid Crystal Display (LCD), an Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED), or the like. Further, the touch panel 531 may cover the display panel 541, and when the touch panel 531 detects a touch operation on or near the touch panel 531, the touch panel is transmitted to the processor 570 to determine the type of the touch event, and then the processor 570 provides a corresponding visual output on the display panel 541 according to the type of the touch event. Although in fig. 8, the touch panel 531 and the display panel 541 are two independent components to implement the input and output functions of the computer, in some embodiments, the touch panel 531 and the display panel 541 may be integrated to implement the input and output functions of the computer.

The audio circuit 550 may provide an audio interface between a user and a computer. The audio circuit 550 may transmit the received electrical signal converted from the audio data to a speaker, and convert the electrical signal into a sound signal for output; on the other hand, the microphone converts the collected sound signal into an electrical signal, which is received by the audio circuit 550 and converted into audio data, which is then processed by the audio data output processor 570, and then transmitted to, for example, another computer via the communication circuit 510, or the audio data is output to the memory 520 for further processing.

WiFi belongs to a short-distance wireless transmission technology, and a computer can help a user send and receive e-mails, browse webpages, access streaming media and the like through the WiFi module 560, which provides wireless broadband internet access for the user. Although fig. 8 shows the WiFi module 560, it is understood that it does not belong to the essential constitution of the computer, and may be omitted entirely as needed within the scope not changing the essence of the invention.

The processor 570 is a control center of the computer, connects various parts of the entire computer using various interfaces and lines, performs various functions of the computer and processes data by operating or executing software programs and/or modules stored in the memory 520 and calling data stored in the memory 520, thereby monitoring the entire computer. Optionally, processor 570 may include one or more processing units; preferably, the processor 570 may integrate an application processor, which mainly handles operating systems, user interfaces, application programs, etc., and a modem processor, which mainly handles wireless communications. It will be appreciated that the modem processor described above may not be integrated into processor 570.

The computer also includes a power supply 580 (e.g., a battery) for powering the various components, and preferably, the power supply 580 is logically coupled to the processor 570 via a power management system that provides management of charging, discharging, and power consumption.

The embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the computer program can implement the steps in the various embodiments of the method for predicting a fund flow.

The embodiment of the application provides a computer program product, and when the computer program product runs on a mobile terminal, the steps in each embodiment of the method for predicting the fund flow can be realized when the mobile terminal executes the computer program product.

The integrated unit, if implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, all or part of the processes in the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by a computer program, which can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium and can implement the steps of the embodiments of the methods described above when the computer program is executed by a processor. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer readable medium may include at least: any entity or device capable of carrying computer program code to a photographing apparatus/terminal apparatus, a recording medium, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), random-access Memory (RAM), an electrical carrier signal, a telecommunications signal, and a software distribution medium. Such as a usb-disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic or optical disk, etc. In certain jurisdictions, computer-readable media may not be an electrical carrier signal or a telecommunications signal in accordance with legislative and patent practice.

In the above embodiments, the descriptions of the respective embodiments have respective emphasis, and reference may be made to the related descriptions of other embodiments for parts that are not described or illustrated in a certain embodiment.

Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present application.

In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus/network device and method may be implemented in other ways. For example, the above-described apparatus/network device embodiments are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the modules or units is only one logical division, and there may be other divisions when actually implementing, for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not implemented. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.

The units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.

The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present application, and not for limiting the same; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not substantially depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present application and are intended to be included within the scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting a fund flow is characterized by comprising the following steps:

2. The method for predicting fund flow according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the first overdue mobility corresponding to each outstanding loan fund and the second overdue mobility corresponding to the poor compensation overdue level at the target time comprises:

acquiring the remaining fund to be returned of each prediction period in the history period and the overdue level of each remaining fund to be returned;

calculating the average overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period in the historical period based on the residual fund to be returned and the overdue grade of each residual fund to be returned;

obtaining the overdue grade of each loan fund to be paid in the target time;

taking the average overdue mobility corresponding to the overdue grade of each loan-repayment fund and the previous overdue grade as a first overdue mobility;

and taking the average overdue mobility corresponding to the difference-complement overdue level and the next overdue level as a second overdue mobility.

3. The method for predicting fund flow according to claim 2, wherein the calculating the average overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue levels in each prediction period in the history period based on the remaining principal to be returned and the overdue level of each remaining principal to be returned comprises:

calculating the overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue grades in each prediction period by adopting a mobility calculation model;

and calculating the average value of the overdue mobility corresponding to the two adjacent overdue grades in the history period to obtain the average overdue mobility between the two adjacent overdue grades.

4. The method of predicting fund flow according to claim 3, wherein the calculating of the overdue mobility between two adjacent overdue levels in each prediction period using a mobility calculation model comprises:

using a formula

5. The method of predicting fund flow according to any one of claims 1-4, wherein the repayment fund prediction value comprises: a repayment principal prediction value, a repayment interest prediction value and a repayment expense prediction value;

the calculating the repayment fund predicted value of the lender at the target time based on the loan fund to be repacked by the lender at the target time and the first overdue migration rate comprises:

determining the predicted value of the repayment principal based on the first overdue migration rate and the principal to be repayed of the loan party at the target time;

determining the repayment interest prediction value based on the first overdue migration rate and the interest due to the lender at the target time;

and determining the repayment expense predicted value based on the first overdue migration rate and the charge to be paid of the lender at the target time.

6. The method of predicting fund flow according to claim 5, wherein the determining the predicted repayment principal value based on the first overdue migration rate and the principal to be repayed by the lender at the target time comprises:

7. The method for predicting the fund flow according to claim 1, wherein the calculating of the predicted value of the poor fund paid at the target time based on the principal fund remaining due for the past prediction period of the borrower at the target time and the second overdue migration rate comprises:

8. An apparatus for predicting a fund flow, comprising:

9. A terminal device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the processor implements the method of predicting a fund flow according to any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out a method of predicting a flow of funds according to any one of claims 1 to 7.