CN111738531A - Post-disaster function recovery analysis method for urban building community under situation earthquake - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a post-disaster function recovery analysis method for an urban building community under a situational earthquake, which comprises the following steps: s1, collecting basic information of the city building community; s2, grading the functional states of each single building according to the damage state and the life line network supply state of the building; s3, determining the post-earthquake initial function state of each single building; s4, predicting the repair time of each monomer building based on a preset algorithm, wherein the repair time at least comprises preparation time and repair recovery time; s5, predicting the time-varying functional state of the monomer building after the earthquake; and S6, predicting the function recovery track of the urban building community based on the time-varying function state of the single building. The invention quickly predicts the whole function recovery process of the urban building community after the disaster occurs by a quantitative analysis method, aims to break through the defects of the traditional risk assessment and provides a basis for the urban management organization to make disaster prevention and reduction decision and plan.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a post-disaster function recovery analysis method for an urban building community under a situational earthquake.
Background
Urban disaster prevention and reduction are important problems which are not negligible in the process of urban management and development. In recent years, with the rapid development of socio-economy and the increasing coupling of functions of infrastructure systems, cities face increasingly complex disaster risks and have a non-linear increasing trend. For example, Katrina hurricane in the United states in 2005, Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, and super typhoon mangosteen in 2018 all highlighted the vulnerability of the contemporary cities under disasters. The 'flexible city' is the latest leading trend in the international disaster prevention and reduction field, and the claimed concept is that the city can resist disasters by self-ability, reduce disaster loss, guarantee basic functions of the city and have the ability of quick recovery. Building communities are the subject of urban construction, including residential, commercial, industrial, hospital, college, administrative, and the like. The improvement of the disaster-resistant toughness of the building community has a key role in urban disaster prevention and reduction planning and construction, because the house building is a place where people live and work, and the collapse and damage of buildings caused by earthquake disasters can directly cause casualties, household recyclability and property loss, and seriously affect the economic development and social stability of cities. Therefore, the method for analyzing and calculating the toughness of the urban building community (including the overall process of disaster-resistant robustness and post-disaster function recovery) has important practical value for urban disaster prevention and reduction planning and decision making. Notably, previous research and application of building community toughness has concentrated on the former (disaster robustness), while the latter (post-disaster recoverability) has been much less.
The current literature is mostly focused on single buildings as disaster assessment methods related to urban buildings. For example, the american pacific seismic engineering research center (PEER) in the beginning of the 21 st century proposed a second generation "performance-based seismic engineering (PBEE)" theoretical framework using a full probability approach for quantitative assessment of seismic losses and guidance of seismic risk decisions for single buildings; thereafter, the federal emergency administration proposed a new generation of earthquake-resistant performance evaluation framework (FEMA P-58) for monolithic buildings in 2012, and provided three types of performance evaluation methods: evaluation method and base based on seismic intensityAn evaluation method for earthquake scenes and an evaluation method based on earthquake dangerousness; with the development of the concept of "earthquake toughness", in 2013, ARUP company in the United states proposed a set of earthquake toughness rating system (REDI) for single buildingTMRating System) to promote the next generation of toughness-based seismic design of buildings. The above documents are all based on disaster performance evaluation and restoration time prediction of the single building, and do not mention how to obtain toughness evaluation of the building community on an urban area scale from the evaluation result of the single building.
Therefore, how to provide an analysis method to quickly predict the post-disaster function recovery process of the urban regional scale building community is a problem to be solved.
Meanwhile, the novel disaster prevention and reduction theory and practice based on the 'flexible city' still face unique problems and challenges in China: compared with the western countries, the urban quantity of China is large, the population is dense, the construction speed is high, and a set of recognized, integrated and complete urban earthquake-resistant toughness quantitative analysis method suitable for the urban characteristics of China still needs to be established. The building community is used as a main body of an urban construction environment, and a quantitative analysis method is provided for the post-disaster recovery path of the building community, so that the building community is an important basis for the construction of a tough city.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the technology, the invention provides a post-disaster function recovery analysis method of an urban building community under a situational earthquake.
The method quickly predicts the whole function recovery process of the urban building community after the disaster occurs by a quantitative analysis method, and can provide scientific basis and data support for the disaster prevention and reduction decision and planning of the urban management organization.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for overcoming the technical problems is as follows:
a post-disaster functional recovery analysis method for urban building communities under a situational earthquake comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting basic information of the city building community, wherein the basic information at least comprises the structure type, the function type and the geographic coordinates of the building;
s2, grading the functional states of each single building according to the damage state and the life line network supply state of the building;
s3, determining the post-earthquake initial function state of each monomer building according to the post-disaster scene under the situation earthquake and the division of the function state grades in the step S2;
s4, predicting the repair time of each monomer building based on a preset algorithm, wherein the repair time at least comprises preparation time and repair recovery time;
s5, predicting the time-varying functional state of the monomer building after earthquake: simulating a functional state recovery process of a single building by adopting a discrete state continuous time Markov process;
and S6, predicting the function recovery track of the urban building community based on the time-varying function state of the single building.
Further, in step S2, the functional status levels are sequentially divided into at least five levels based on the damage level of the building from high to low and the supply level of the lifeline network from low to high: first functional state, second functional state, third functional state, fourth functional state, and fifth functional state, and are respectively labeled
、
、
、
And
。
further, in step S3, for the post-disaster scene of the situational earthquake, performing on-site survey, damage identification and assessment on each single building and the lifeline network of the city to obtain the actual initial states of the single building and the lifeline network, wherein the lifeline network is a network such as water, electricity, gas and the like which is essential for the daily life of the public; and obtains the post-disaster initial functional status of each individual building based on the functional status grades defined in step S2.
Further, in step S4, the preparation time is the preparation time before repairing the building after earthquake and is recorded as
At least including building damage detection time, fund preparation and acquisition time, contract preparation and bidding time, engineering design, auditing and scheduling time and building permission acquisition time; the building is in an initial functional state after earthquake
The preparation time required to repair the building is recorded as
。
Further, in step S4, the repair restoration time at least includes:
time of building maintenance
The building repair time refers to the time for building repair or reconstruction, and comprises repairing damaged structural and non-structural members of the building and initiating the building from the post-earthquake functional state
Restoring to a functional state
The time required is
Wherein
for buildings at a certain moment after earthquake
The functional state of (a) of (b),
，
、
、
、
、
respectively show that the building is in the first functional state
Second functional state
Third functional state
Fourth functional state
Fifth functional state
(ii) a And the number of the first and second groups,
lifeline network provisioning recovery time
The supply recovery time of the lifeline network refers to the time for recovering the function of the urban lifeline network, and the lifeline network is repaired toSatisfy the fourth functional state of the building
The time required was recorded as
Restoring the lifeline network to meet the fifth functional state of the building
The time required was recorded as
。
Further, in step S4, the above preparation time is taken into consideration
Maintenance time of the building
And lifeline network provisioning recovery time
The repair sequence of the single building, the repair time of the single building is calculated as follows:
wherein,
is a single building after the earthquake occurs
The initial functional state of the moment is
Is restored to the functional state
The time required for the operation of the apparatus,
is the initial time after the earthquake occurs;
is the time of building damage detection;
is the time to fund and obtain;
time of contract preparation and bidding;
is the time of engineering design, auditing and scheduling;
is the time at which the building permit was obtained;
is to repair the building from its functional state
Is restored to
Time of (d).
Furthermore, in step S5, considering the randomness of each link in the building repair process, a discrete state continuous time markov process is used to simulate the functional state recovery process of a single building, so as to make
The functional state variable of a single building, which changes along with time after the earthquake occurs, has the value range of
And defining the probability distribution of the building in these five functional states as:
further, the air conditioner is provided with a fan,
the calculation process of (2) is specifically as follows:
due to the fact that
Is the initial moment of the building after earthquake
Functional state of (1), then
；
Due to the fact that
For buildings at a certain moment after earthquake
Functional state of (1), then
Then, there are:
to obtain
The probability distribution of all its components, i.e. of all the variables of equations (1) to (4), needs to be determined; and (3) representing the probability distribution of each time variable by adopting a lognormal distribution, namely:
in the formula (7), the first and second groups,
and
is a random variable
Further calculated as follows:
in the equations (8) and (9),
and
is a random variable
Mean and coefficient of variation.
Further, the time-varying functional state trajectory of the urban building community is calculated as follows:
wherein,
for the city at any time in the recovery process after earthquake
In a functional state
The ratio of the building of (a) to (b),
；
is the first
Time-varying functional state probabilities for individual buildings;
，
is the total number of the existing buildings. Further, when
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
and recovering the track for the overall function of the urban building community.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the traditional building risk assessment usually adopts an empirical statistical method or a semi-empirical semi-theoretical method, little or no consideration is given to the vulnerability of non-structural members, no attention is given to building functions, and the recoverability of a building community system after a disaster is not considered. The method can simulate the whole process of functional recovery of the building community after the disaster, and quickly predict the whole process of functional recovery of the urban building community after the disaster by a quantitative analysis method, aims to break through the defects of traditional risk assessment, and provides a basis for disaster prevention and reduction decision and planning of an urban management organization.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a post-disaster functional recovery analysis method for an urban building community under a situational earthquake according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 shows an embodiment of the present invention, in which building communities divided according to communities at six moments in the post-disaster recovery process of urban areas in Hangzhou province are located
Duty ratio of functional state.
Fig. 3 is a graph showing the ratio of the building community in the urban area of the Hangzhou state in five functional states as a function of time according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to facilitate a better understanding of the invention for those skilled in the art, the invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific examples, which are given by way of illustration only and do not limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in FIG. 1, the invention discloses a post-disaster functional recovery analysis method for an urban building community under a situational earthquake. The following description will be made in detail with the urban area in Hangzhou city as the situational earthquake affected zone.
And step S1, collecting basic information of the city building community.
The required basic information includes at least the structure type, the function type and the geographical coordinates of the building.
Go up urban area and be located Hangzhou city middle part partial south, manage 6 streets: the total number of the Qingbo street, the lakeside street, the minor camp street, the arisaema street, the sunlight street and the Wangjiang street is 54, and the total population is 35.13 ten thousands of people.
In this example, 6495 buildings were collected in the upper urban area, and these buildings were classified into at least residential districts, hotels, corporations, business buildings, financial institutions, entertainment, life services, restaurants, tourist attractions, government agencies, and scientific research institutions according to their functional types (i.e., uses).
And step S2, grading the functional states of the single buildings.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the lifeline network only considers the municipal water supply network and the power supply network. The grading of the functional states of the single buildings takes into account the damage degree of the buildings and the supply level of the lifeline network, and is specifically defined as follows in this embodiment:
first functional state (
): the damage state of the building is extremely serious, and the structural or non-structural components of the building are seriously damaged; the building cannot be accessed.
Second functional state (
): the damage state of the building is not enough to threaten life, but the structural or non-structural components are damaged moderately to seriously, so that the using function of the building is influenced; the building cannot be used.
Third functional state (
): slight to moderate damage to structural and non-structural elements of a building occurs, but lacks lifeline network supply; access to the building is possible.
Fourth functional State (
): slight damage to structural and non-structural members of the building, lifelineNetwork supply meets the use requirement; the building is basically functional.
Fifth functional State (
): structural and non-structural members of the building are not damaged, and the supply state of the lifeline network is sufficient and is equivalent to the normal use state before earthquake; the building can be used completely.
And step S3, determining a disaster scene and an initial function state after earthquake.
The disaster scene of the embodiment is a virtual scene earthquake, the earthquake magnitude is set to be 8 levels, the earthquake magnitude is located in the south-east, the distance from the urban area is about 15 kilometers, the coordinates are (30.164N, 120.297W), and the seismic source depth is 10 kilometers. Through earthquake reaction analysis and structural damage analysis, most buildings are found to be seriously damaged; the source of the water network is damaged, so that the whole water supply network is completely invalid, and the initial supply level is 0; and when part of the power transmission stations are damaged, the grid nodes can maintain 54.1% of functions. Based on the division of the building function status grade, the building is in
、
、
、
And
the building proportions in the functional state are 40.6%, 37.4%, 16.6%, 4.4% and 1%, respectively.
And step S4, predicting the repair time of each single building.
The repair time comprises a preparation time
Maintenance time of the building
And lifeline network provisioning recovery time
Wherein the preparation time
And building repair time
The preparation time is respectively listed in tables 1 and 2 through literature research and reference of historical empirical data related to factors such as damage degree of buildings, engineering construction level, market economic condition, post-disaster reconstruction planning scheme and the like
And building repair time
Mean value of time variable of
And coefficient of variation
(Table 2 the coefficient of variation for all variables was set to 0.4); lifeline network provisioning recovery time
Table 3 lists the lifeline network supply restoration times by literature research and reference to historical empirical data, depending on the extent of damage to the systems, i.e., post-disaster reconstruction resources and maintenance schedules implemented by the networks (e.g., power supply offices, water supply companies, etc.)
As a timeMean of inter-variables
(Table 3 mutation system for all variables was set to 0.7).
TABLE 1 preparation time
Mean value and coefficient of variation (unit: week)
In the context of table 1, the following,
is the time of building damage detection;
is the time of engineering design, auditing and scheduling;
is the time to fund and obtain;
time of contract preparation and bidding;
is the time at which the building permit is obtained.
TABLE 2 maintenance time of the building
Mean value of (unit: week)
TABLE 3 lifeline network provisioning recovery time
Mean value of (unit: week)
And S5, predicting the time-varying functional state of the monomer building after the earthquake and the functional recovery track of the urban building community.
Through analysis and calculation, fig. 2 shows the full recovery function (i.e. in a functional state) of 54 communities in six moments ( weeks 0, 5, 30, 45, 60 and 90) of the post-disaster recovery process of the upper urban area
) The ratio of the number of buildings to the total number of the buildings in the community. As can be seen from the figure, the building functional status of most communities is still the same as the initial functional status (week 0) within the first 5 weeks, except for the middle individual communities. This is due to the fact that most buildings require a period of preliminary preparation (i.e., repair work) before their repair work can begin during the recovery over-start phase
E.g. fund scheduling, bidding, drawing design, etc.), the functional status of the building is mainly affected by the restoration of the water and electricity network, and the restoration time of the water and electricity network (i.e. the restoration time of the network
) At around 2 and 13 weeks, respectively (as shown in table 3). On the other hand, when the water and electricity are fully recovered, the repair and reconstruction of the building is mainly dependent on its own repair time (i.e., maintenance time)
). Therefore, after week 5, as the maintenance work is gradually advanced, the functional status of the buildings of all communities begins to change and eventually slowly recovers to the pre-disaster level. FIG. 3 is a graph showing the ratio of the building population in the upper urban area in five functional states as a function of time, wherein the solid black line (C: (C))
) The overall restoration trajectory of the building community. As can be seen from the figure, the expected restoration time of the building community in the whole area is 110 weeks.
The foregoing merely illustrates the principles and preferred embodiments of the invention and many variations and modifications may be made by those skilled in the art in light of the foregoing description, which are within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A post-disaster functional recovery analysis method for urban building communities under a situational earthquake is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, collecting basic information of the city building community, wherein the basic information at least comprises the structure type, the function type and the geographic coordinates of the building;
s2, grading the functional states of each single building according to the damage state and the life line network supply state of the building;
s3, determining the post-earthquake initial function state of each monomer building according to the post-disaster scene under the situation earthquake and the division of the function state grades in the step S2;
s4, predicting the repair time of each monomer building based on a preset algorithm, wherein the repair time at least comprises preparation time and repair recovery time;
s5, predicting the time-varying functional state of the monomer building after earthquake: simulating a functional state recovery process of a single building by adopting a discrete state continuous time Markov process;
and S6, predicting the function recovery track of the urban building community based on the time-varying function state of the single building.
2. The method for analyzing functional recovery of urban building communities after disaster under the situational earthquake according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, the functional status grades are divided into at least five grades in sequence from high to low damage degree of the building and from low to high supply level of the lifeline network: first functional state, second functional state, and third workEnabled State, fourth functional State, and fifth functional State, and are separately labeled
、
、
、
And
。
3. the method for analyzing the post-disaster functional recovery of the urban building community under the situational earthquake as claimed in claim 2, wherein in step S3, the post-disaster initial functional state of each individual building is obtained based on the functional state grade defined in step S2 for the post-disaster scenario under the situational earthquake.
4. The method for analyzing restoration of post-disaster functions of urban building communities under the situation of earthquake according to claim 2, wherein in step S4, the preparation time is the preparation time before the building is repaired after earthquake and is recorded as
At least including building damage detection time, fund preparation and acquisition time, contract preparation and bidding time, engineering design, auditing and scheduling time and building permission acquisition time; the building is in an initial functional state after earthquake
The preparation time required to repair the building is recorded as
。
5. The method for analyzing the restoration of the post-disaster function of the urban building community under the situation earthquake according to claim 4, wherein in step S4, the maintenance restoration time at least comprises:
time of building maintenance
The building repair time refers to the time for building repair or reconstruction, and comprises repairing damaged structural and non-structural members of the building and initiating the building from the post-earthquake functional state
Restoring to a functional state
The time required is
Wherein
for buildings at a certain moment after earthquake
The functional state of (a) of (b),
，
、
、
、
、
respectively show that the building is in the first functional state
Second functional state
Third functional state
Fourth functional state
Fifth functional state
(ii) a And the number of the first and second groups,
lifeline network provisioning recovery time
The supply and recovery time of the lifeline network refers to the time for recovering the function of the urban lifeline network, and the lifeline network is repaired to meet the fourth functional state of the building
The time required was recorded as
Restoring the lifeline network to meet the fifth functional state of the building
The time required was recorded as
。
6. The method for analyzing the post-disaster functional recovery of urban building communities under the situational earthquake according to claim 5, wherein in step S4, the repair time of the single buildings is calculated as follows:
wherein,
is a single building after the earthquake occurs
The initial functional state of the moment is
Is restored to the functional state
The time required for the operation of the apparatus,
is the initial time after the earthquake occurs;
is the time of building damage detection;
is the time to fund and obtain;
time of contract preparation and bidding;
is the time of engineering design, auditing and scheduling;
is the time at which the building permit was obtained;
is to repair the building from its functional state
Is restored to
Time of (d).
7. The method for analyzing restoration of post-disaster functions of urban building communities under the situational earthquake according to claim 6, wherein in step S5, the method comprises
The functional state variable of a single building, which changes along with time after the earthquake occurs, has the value range of
And defining the probability distribution of the building in these five functional states as:
8. the method for analyzing restoration of post-disaster functions of urban building communities under situational earthquake according to claim 7,
the calculation process of (2) is specifically as follows:
due to the fact that
Is the initial moment of the building after earthquake
Functional state of (1), then
；
Due to the fact that
For buildings at a certain moment after earthquake
Functional state of (1), then
Then, there are:
to obtain
The probability distribution of all its components, i.e. of all the variables of equations (1) to (4), needs to be determined; and (3) representing the probability distribution of each time variable by adopting a lognormal distribution, namely:
in the formula (7), the first and second groups,
and
is a random variable
Further calculated as follows:
in the equations (8) and (9),
and
is a random variable
Mean and coefficient of variation.
9. The method for analyzing the post-disaster functional recovery of the urban building community under the situational earthquake according to claim 8, wherein the time-varying functional state trajectory of the urban building community is calculated as follows:
wherein,
for the city at any time in the recovery process after earthquake
In a functional state
The ratio of the building of (a) to (b),
；
is the first
Time-varying functional state probabilities for individual buildings;
，
is the total number of the existing buildings.
10. The method according to claim 9, wherein when the post-disaster recovery analysis of urban building communities under the situational earthquake occurs, the method is applied
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
and recovering the track for the overall function of the urban building community.
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Cited By (3)
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| CN112861383A (en) * | 2021-03-17 | 2021-05-28 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Railway station anti-seismic toughness evaluation method and system |
| CN114444818A (en) * | 2022-04-08 | 2022-05-06 | 北京科技大学 | Method and system for predicting post-earthquake restoration process of community building group |
| CN115358427A (en) * | 2022-08-31 | 2022-11-18 | 成都九洲电子信息系统股份有限公司 | Part configuration suggestion acquisition and calculation method |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112861383A (en) * | 2021-03-17 | 2021-05-28 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Railway station anti-seismic toughness evaluation method and system |
| CN112861383B (en) * | 2021-03-17 | 2022-09-16 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Railway station anti-seismic toughness evaluation method and system |
| CN114444818A (en) * | 2022-04-08 | 2022-05-06 | 北京科技大学 | Method and system for predicting post-earthquake restoration process of community building group |
| CN114444818B (en) * | 2022-04-08 | 2022-08-09 | 北京科技大学 | Method and system for predicting post-earthquake restoration process of community building group |
| US20230325737A1 (en) * | 2022-04-08 | 2023-10-12 | University Of Science And Technology Beijing | Method and system for predicting post-earthquake repair of building groups in community |
| CN115358427A (en) * | 2022-08-31 | 2022-11-18 | 成都九洲电子信息系统股份有限公司 | Part configuration suggestion acquisition and calculation method |
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