CN111723490B - Reliability evaluation method for electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering alternative load - Google Patents
Reliability evaluation method for electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering alternative load Download PDFInfo
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- CN111723490B CN111723490B CN202010581574.8A CN202010581574A CN111723490B CN 111723490 B CN111723490 B CN 111723490B CN 202010581574 A CN202010581574 A CN 202010581574A CN 111723490 B CN111723490 B CN 111723490B
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Abstract
Along with the gradual deepening of the coupling relation between the electric power system and the natural gas system, the capability of mutual interconnection of the electric-gas comprehensive energy system can be enhanced by guiding a user to change the energy utilization behavior, and meanwhile, the reliability of the coupling system is also influenced. The invention provides a reliability evaluation method of an electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering alternative loads, which comprises the following steps: establishing an alternative load model; an optimal multi-energy load shedding model which aims at the minimum sum of comprehensive energy reduction of the system; an electro-pneumatic integrated energy system reliability level assessment algorithm is presented that accounts for alternative loads. The result shows that different alternative load permeabilities and controllable properties have different degrees of influence on the reliability of the coupling system, and reference is provided for planning and running of the electric coupling system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a reliability evaluation method of an electric-gas comprehensive energy system, in particular to a reliability evaluation method of an electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering alternative loads.
Background
In recent years, china is in order to promote energy production, realize consumption transformation, construct a modern energy structure with low carbon, safety, reliability and high efficiency, accelerate the development and utilization of an electric-gas comprehensive energy system (IEGS) and realize complementary interaction among multiple energy systems. Ensuring reliable operation of the IEGS is critical to the development of integrated energy systems, while reasonable reliability assessment is critical to ensuring reliable operation of the IEGS.
The reliability evaluation of the current IEGS mainly aims at a coupling element between an electric power network and a natural gas network, and a system reliability analysis model is built. In practice, the user in the IEGS may choose to use electricity or natural gas at random to achieve his own energy needs, e.g. the user may use an electric boiler or a gas boiler, i.e. use different energy sources to achieve the same purpose, such loads being referred to as alternative loads. In operation, when one energy source is not enough, if a user is guided to use another energy source through a certain economic subsidy, the reduction of the load of the IEGS can be reduced, namely the reliability of the IEGS can be improved; if the guiding mechanism is not reasonable, a large amount of alternative load transfer can be caused, so that another energy source is insufficient, the load shedding amount of the IEGS can be increased, and the reliability level of the IEGS is reduced. It can be seen that in the reliability evaluation process, considering the influence of the alternative load, constructing the reliability evaluation model of the IEGS is very necessary for reflecting the reliability level of the IEGS more truly.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention establishes an optimal load shedding model of a comprehensive energy system considering the replaceable load as a system load shedding strategy based on the characteristics of user controllability and energy consumption change before and after load replacement in order to solve the problem of the influence of the replaceable load on the reliability of the IEGS; based on a non-sequential Monte Carlo method, an electric-gas comprehensive energy system reliability evaluation index and algorithm considering alternative loads are provided. The potential of the user side can be effectively mined by adopting the method, the reduction of the load of the IEGS is reduced by reasonably changing the energy consumption mode of the user, and the reliability of the IEGS is improved.
The invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme: the reliability evaluation method of the electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering the replaceable load comprises the following steps:
s1: establishing an alternative load model, defining a controllable factor epsilon to describe the control degree of the alternative load, wherein the controllable factor epsilon
Wherein: w and DeltaW are the total amount of the replaceable load and the controlled amount of the replaceable load respectively; p is the unit price of energy used before load replacement; Δp is the amount of change in the user's unit price before and after load substitution;
s2: establishing a system optimal load shedding model by taking the minimum sum of the system comprehensive energy reduction amounts as an optimization target;
s3: describing the reliability of the IEGS system by adopting a coefficient of contribution of the insufficient energy supply expected quantity, the insufficient controllable quantity of the replaceable load to the reliability of the system and a reliability benefit index, thereby providing basis for an electrical replaceable load access scheme and a scheduling algorithm, wherein the index accounts for the replaceable load;
s4: firstly, sampling system elements, total replaceable loads and the like by adopting a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, carrying out topology analysis on IEGS according to element state sampling results, and updating connectivity conditions of a system network; then carrying out energy flow calculation, if convergence, repeating the step S4, otherwise, carrying out IEGS optimal cut load calculation by controlling the replaceable load, updating the loads of all subsystems, and calculating the IEGS reliability index of the sampling; finally judging whether the sampling times reach a set value, and outputting a reliability index if the sampling times reach the set value; otherwise, step S4 is repeated.
The reliability evaluation method of the electric-gas integrated energy system for considering the replaceable load comprises the following specific indexes:
insufficient energy supply expectations
Wherein: n is the sampling times; f (F) EENS (X i ) Is the system state X i Wherein the cut load is the sum of the power cut load and the natural gas cut load determined by the optimal cut load model of the system after the alternative load is taken into account, and the energy supply deficiency expects to represent the average value of the cut loads of various types when the system operates, and reflects the shortage of energy sources in the system;
insufficient controlled amount of the alternative load desired EALS to describe whether the system has a problem of insufficient controllable amount of the alternative load, eals=0 when the actual controlled amount of the alternative load is greater than the required amount H of the alternative load of the system; conversely, if the controlled amount of the actual alternative load does not meet the system demand, the controlled amount of the alternative load is less than desired
Wherein: f (F) EALS (Xi) is a systemThe system state is the missing alternative load quantity of Xi;
contribution coefficient of alternative load to system reliability cald describes the extent of influence of alternative load to system reliability, cale=Δees/W, Δees=ees 0 -EENS 1 Wherein: EENS 0 And EENS 1 EENS when the alternative load is not controllable and when it is controllable, respectively; Δeens is a desired reduction in EENS for system under-power;
reliability benefit c=c p -C on ，
C p =Δeens·q, where: c is reliability benefit; c (C) on To replace the load control cost, C p The economic benefit obtained after the reduction of the desired EENS for the system under-powered; q is the off-load price.
According to the reliability evaluation method of the electric-gas integrated energy system for considering the replaceable load, the electric load and the natural gas load are uniformly described by electric energy after heat equivalent conversion.
Along with the gradual deepening of the coupling relation between the electric power system and the natural gas system, the capability of mutual interconnection of the electric-gas comprehensive energy system can be enhanced by guiding a user to change the energy utilization behavior, and meanwhile, the reliability of the coupling system is also influenced. The invention provides a reliability evaluation method of an electric-gas integrated energy system considering alternative loads, which comprises the following steps: establishing an alternative load model; an optimal multi-energy load shedding model which aims at the minimum sum of comprehensive energy reduction of the system; an electro-pneumatic integrated energy system reliability level assessment algorithm is presented that accounts for alternative loads. The result shows that different alternative load permeabilities and controllable properties have different degrees of influence on the reliability of the coupling system, and reference is provided for planning and running of the electric coupling system.
Detailed Description
The reliability evaluation method of the electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering the replaceable load comprises the following steps:
s1: and establishing an alternative load model, defining a controllable factor to describe the association degree between the controlled quantity of the alternative load and the energy price change, and representing the sensitivity of the controlled quantity of the alternative load to the energy price of a user, wherein the larger the controllable factor is, the more the controllable alternative load in the integrated energy system is, as shown in a formula (1).
Wherein: w and DeltaW are the total amount of the replaceable load and the controlled amount of the replaceable load respectively; p is the unit price of energy used before load replacement; Δp is the amount of change in the unit price of the user energy before and after load substitution, and only when Δp >0, the user can change the type of energy.
S2: and (3) establishing a system optimal load shedding model by taking the minimum sum of the comprehensive energy reduction amounts of the system as an optimization target, and uniformly describing electric loads and natural gas loads by electric energy after heat equivalent conversion.
S3: in order to describe the reliability of the whole system, indexes such as insufficient energy expectancy, insufficient controllable quantity of the replaceable load, contribution coefficient of the replaceable load to the reliability of the system, reliability benefits and the like are provided.
1) Insufficient energy expectations (Expected Energy not supplied, EENS)
The index represents the average value of various load reduction amounts in the running process of the system, and reflects the shortage amount of energy sources in the system.
Wherein: n is the sampling times; f (F) EENS (X i ) Is the system state X i The cut load is the sum of the electric cut load and the natural gas cut load determined by a system optimal cut load model after accounting for the replaceable load, wherein the natural gas load is a value described by electric energy after heat equivalent conversion, F EENS (X i ) The unit is MW.
2) Controlled variable of alternative loads is not sufficiently desired (Expected alternative load not supplied, EALS)
The controlled quantity of the replaceable load is closely related to the energy consumption requirement of the user, has larger fluctuation, and can cause the shortage of the controllable quantity of the replaceable load when the energy requirement of the user of the replaceable load is smaller.
Assume that the supply shortage in the energy i system is Δw i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The residual quantity in the energy j system is Deltaw j At this time, the demand H of the system replaceable load, the missing replaceable load F EALS (X i ) The method comprises the following steps of:
H＝min{Δw i ,Δw j }·ε·p/Δp (5)
it is proposed that the controlled amount of the alternative load is insufficient to be expected to describe whether the system has a problem of insufficient controlled amount of the alternative load, eals=0 when the actual controlled amount of the alternative load is greater than the required amount H of the alternative load of the system; conversely, if the actual controllable amount of the alternative load does not meet the system demand, the controllable amount of the alternative load is less than desired as:
wherein: f (F) EALS (Xi) is the system state X i Is lack of alternative load capacity.
3) Contribution coefficient of replaceable load to system reliability (contribution of alternative load to EENS, CALE)
The index describes the extent to which the alternative load has an effect on the reliability of the system. The larger the CALE, the more significant the degree of improvement in system reliability of the alternative load.
CALE＝ΔEENS/W (8)
ΔEENS＝EENS 0 -EENS 1 (9)
Wherein: EENS 0 And EENS 1 Respectively when the replaceable load is uncontrollable andEENS at controllable times; Δeens is a desired reduction in EENS for system under-power.
4) Reliability benefit
While alternative load participation load optimization may reduce the amount of load reduction, improving system reliability, the operator's control costs limit the amount of alternative load participation. Therefore, the control cost and reliability benefits of the alternative load are comprehensively considered, and an economic evaluation model is established.
When the system fails and one of the energy sources is insufficient, the IEGS interconnection and mutual aid can be realized by controlling the energy utilization behaviors of the alternative load users, so that the condition of insufficient energy supply of the system is reduced, the load reduction punishment cost is reduced, and the economy of the system is improved.
C＝C p -C on (10)
C p ＝ΔEENS·Q (12)
Wherein: c is reliability benefit; c (C) on To replace the load control cost, C p The economic benefit obtained after the reduction of the desired EENS for the system under-powered; q is the off-load price.
S4: firstly, sampling system elements (a generator, a power transmission line, a gas source point, a pipe network), the total amount of replaceable loads and the like by adopting a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, carrying out topology analysis on IEGS according to element state sampling results, and updating the connectivity condition of a system network; then carrying out energy flow calculation, if convergence, repeating the step S4, otherwise, carrying out IEGS optimal cut load calculation by controlling the replaceable load, updating the loads of all subsystems, and calculating the IEGS reliability index of the sampling; finally judging whether the sampling times reach a set value, and outputting a reliability index if the sampling times reach the set value; otherwise, step S4 is repeated.
Claims (3)
1. The reliability evaluation method of the electric-gas comprehensive energy system considering the replaceable load is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
s1: establishing an alternative load model, defining a controllable factor epsilon to describe the control degree of the alternative load, wherein the controllable factor epsilon
Wherein: w and DeltaW are the total amount of the replaceable load and the controlled amount of the replaceable load respectively; p is the unit price of energy used before load replacement; Δp is the amount of change in the user's unit price before and after load substitution;
s2: establishing a system optimal load shedding model by taking the minimum sum of the system comprehensive energy reduction amounts as an optimization target;
s3: describing the reliability of the IEGS system by adopting a coefficient of contribution of the insufficient energy supply expected quantity, the insufficient controllable quantity of the replaceable load to the reliability of the system and a reliability benefit index, thereby providing basis for an electrical replaceable load access scheme and a scheduling algorithm, wherein the index accounts for the replaceable load;
s4: firstly, sampling system elements, total replaceable loads and the like by adopting a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, carrying out topology analysis on IEGS according to element state sampling results, and updating connectivity conditions of a system network; then carrying out energy flow calculation, if convergence, repeating the step S4, otherwise, carrying out IEGS optimal cut load calculation by controlling the replaceable load, updating the loads of all subsystems, and calculating the IEGS reliability index of the sampling; finally judging whether the sampling times reach a set value, and outputting a reliability index if the sampling times reach the set value; otherwise, step S4 is repeated.
2. The method for evaluating reliability of an electric-gas integrated energy system taking into account a replaceable load according to claim 1, characterized by: the indexes for considering the replaceable load are specifically as follows:
insufficient energy supply expectations
Wherein: n is the sampling times; f (F) EENS (X i ) Is the system state X i Is a tangential load of (1)The middle cut load is the sum of the power cut load and the natural gas cut load determined by the optimal cut load model of the system after the alternative load is taken into account, and the energy supply deficiency expects to represent the average value of various load reduction amounts when the system operates, and reflects the shortage amount of energy sources in the system;
insufficient controlled amount of the alternative load desired EALS to describe whether the system has a problem of insufficient controllable amount of the alternative load, eals=0 when the actual controlled amount of the alternative load is greater than the required amount H of the alternative load of the system; conversely, if the controlled amount of the actual alternative load does not meet the system demand, the controlled amount of the alternative load is less than desired
Wherein: f (F) EALS (Xi) is the missing alternative load amount for which the system state is Xi;
contribution coefficient of alternative load to system reliability cald describes the extent of influence of alternative load to system reliability, cale=Δees/W, Δees=ees 0 -EENS 1 Wherein: EENS 0 And EENS 1 EENS when the alternative load is not controllable and when it is controllable, respectively; Δeens is a desired reduction in EENS for system under-power;
reliability benefit c=c p -C on ，
C p =Δeens·q, where: c is reliability benefit; c (C) on To replace the load control cost, C p The economic benefit obtained after the reduction of the desired EENS for the system under-powered; q is the off-load price.
3. The method for evaluating reliability of an electric-gas integrated energy system taking into account an alternative load according to claim 2, characterized by: the electric load and the natural gas load are uniformly described by electric energy after heat equivalent conversion.
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| CN109815629A (en) * | 2019-02-26 | 2019-05-28 | 南京工业大学 | A kind of medium-term and long-term integration requirement response modeling method towards integrated energy system |
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| CN110518583A (en) * | 2019-08-23 | 2019-11-29 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of integrated energy system reliability estimation method considering dynamic characteristic |
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| US8653697B1 (en) * | 2010-10-22 | 2014-02-18 | Nucleus Scientific, Inc. | Inductive coupling for an electrical storage system |
| CN109815629A (en) * | 2019-02-26 | 2019-05-28 | 南京工业大学 | A kind of medium-term and long-term integration requirement response modeling method towards integrated energy system |
| CN110417053A (en) * | 2019-07-29 | 2019-11-05 | 重庆大学 | Meter and the multi-energy system reliability estimation method of integration requirement response |
| CN110518583A (en) * | 2019-08-23 | 2019-11-29 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of integrated energy system reliability estimation method considering dynamic characteristic |
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