CN111680835A - Risk prediction method and device, storage medium and electronic equipment - Google Patents

Risk prediction method and device, storage medium and electronic equipment Download PDF

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CN111680835A
CN111680835A CN202010506659.XA CN202010506659A CN111680835A CN 111680835 A CN111680835 A CN 111680835A CN 202010506659 A CN202010506659 A CN 202010506659A CN 111680835 A CN111680835 A CN 111680835A
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刘宗贤
蔡超
赵颖
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Guangzhou Huiluo Information Technology Co ltd
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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a risk prediction method, a risk prediction device, a storage medium and electronic equipment. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource; acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period; and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. By adopting the technical scheme, the unstable risk of the instance resource can be accurately and effectively evaluated, so that a user can be helped to master the recovery risk of the instance resource, and the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.

Description

Risk prediction method and device, storage medium and electronic equipment
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of data processing, in particular to a risk prediction method, a risk prediction device, a storage medium and electronic equipment.
Background
In the field of cloud computing, cloud providers may offer products for bidding examples, such as, for example, the Spot Instance of amazon, an elastic Instance of aley. The products are characterized in that idle instance resources inside the cloud traders are comprehensively planned and are purchased and used by customers in a discount auction mode, but once the cloud traders have insufficient resources in idle markets, the auction price rises and the like, the cloud traders can require the customers to recover the instance resources, so that the instance resources are at risk of being recovered. Therefore, it becomes critical to accurately and efficiently predict the risk of instability of instance resources.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a risk prediction method, a risk prediction device, a storage medium and electronic equipment, which can accurately and effectively evaluate the unstable risk of instance resources.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a risk prediction method, where the method includes:
acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period;
and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a risk prediction apparatus, where the apparatus includes:
the system comprises a first acquisition module, a second acquisition module and a third acquisition module, wherein the first acquisition module is used for acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period;
and the risk prediction module is used for predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, where the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements a risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, where the processor executes the computer program to implement the risk prediction method according to the embodiment of the present invention.
According to the risk prediction scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource are obtained; acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period; and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. By adopting the technical means, the unstable risk of the instance resource can be accurately and effectively evaluated, so that the user can be helped to master the recovery risk of the instance resource, and the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of a risk prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It is to be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not limiting of the invention. It should be further noted that, for the convenience of description, only some of the structures related to the present invention are shown in the drawings, not all of the structures.
The cloud computing provider organizes the bids of instance resources by available zones, such as available zone a (available zone), available zone b (available zone b), and available zone c (available zone c), each of which represents an isolated machine room. There are then free time instance resources within each available region, such as instance resource 1(instance 1), instance resource 2(instance 2), and instance resource 3(instance 3), which may be made available to the user for bidding. Wherein, the instance resource can be understood as an idle server.
Since the instance resources are distributed across different available areas, typically a user will first select an available area and then bid for the instance resources within that available area. Due to the fact that once the cloud trader market is idle, resources are insufficient, auction prices rise and the like, the cloud trader can recover instance resources to the user, and obviously, the instance resources are at risk of being recovered. Thus, the user needs the risk (also understood as stability risk, probability of reclamation, etc.) that the instance resources in each available region are reclaimed before bidding on the respective instance resources.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a risk prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the method may be executed by a risk prediction apparatus, where the apparatus may be implemented by software and/or hardware, and may be generally integrated in an electronic device. As shown in fig. 1, the method includes:
step 101, obtaining a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource.
The target instance resource may be understood as an instance resource to be subjected to risk prediction, and the instance resource may include an idle server resource.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk statistic value of the target instance resource in the first preset time period is obtained. By way of example, the risk statistics of the cloud quotient on the target instance resource within the first preset time period can be crawled through downloading or crawling. The risk statistics can be understood as overview risk data issued by cloud merchants, and the data is fuzzy, long-period and inaccurate.
Exemplary, risk statistics for amazon release are as follows:
Figure BDA0002526770760000041
Figure BDA0002526770760000051
the data us-east-1 shows the Virginia region of the east United states, in which the risk statistics of c4.2Xlarge were less than 5%, the risk statistics of c4.4Xlarge were less than 10%, and the risk statistics of c4.8Xlarge were less than 25% over the past month.
In the embodiment of the invention, historical interruption data of target instance resources in a first preset time period is obtained. Because the instance resources of the cloud provider are in normal operation, if the instance resources are about to be recovered, the message notification that the instance resources are interrupted can be received, for example, through the cloud monitoring message center of CloudWatch or arrhizus of amazon, the interrupt notification of the instance resources can be collected and stored, and such data can be referred to as historical interrupt data of the instance resources.
Illustratively, amazon's historical outage data is as follows:
Figure BDA0002526770760000052
Figure BDA0002526770760000061
in the historical interrupt data, us-east-1 indicates that one interrupt occurs in a subnet-a subnet c4.2xlarge model in Virginia region of east China at 2020-05-2312: 20: 45; a subnet-a subnet c4.4xlarge model in oregon, west-2 us, west, has experienced a disruption at 2020-05-2312: 22: 10.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the historical interruption data of the target instance resource may include historical interruption times, interruption time, and other related data information of the target instance resource. The historical interruption data of the target instance resource can indirectly reflect the interruption rule (i.e. the recovered rule) of the target instance resource.
And 102, acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period is obtained, where the real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period may be understood as statistical data for monitoring the risk of the target instance resource being recovered in the second preset time period in real time. The second preset time period is less than the first preset time period, for example, the first preset time period is a past month time, and the second preset time period may be a time period from 8 o 'clock to 9 o' clock of the day. The second preset time period may be understood as a time period that is pushed back by a certain length of time at the current time. For example, the risk condition of the instance resource in the second preset time period may be actively monitored, for example, a risk test is performed on the target instance resource, the test content may apply for the instance resource in real time, that is, a data request is sent to the instance resource (which may be understood as a server resource), and if the application succeeds, the instance resource is indicated to be available, and is not currently recovered; if the application fails, the resource of the instance is not available, and the current recycled risk is higher.
Exemplary, real-time monitoring data for amazon is as follows:
Figure BDA0002526770760000071
the above monitoring data indicate that the subnet-b subnet c5.xlarge model in the area of virginia in east of us-east-1 fails to apply for the application at 2020-05-2210: 20:45, i.e., is not available (i.e., has a high recovery risk). The subnet-b subnet c3.xlarge model in Oregon, east of Us-west-2, fails to apply at 2020-05-2212: 10:30, and is not available.
Acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period, wherein the acquisition comprises the following steps: performing risk test on the target instance resource in real time within a second preset time period; and determining real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk test result.
Step 103, predicting a risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risk value of the target instance resource is predicted according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. Optionally, the risk statistics, the historical interrupt data, and the real-time interrupt data may be input into a risk prediction model trained in advance, and the risk value of the target instance resource may be determined according to an output result of the risk prediction model.
Optionally, predicting the risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the risk statistics, the historical interruption data, and the real-time interruption data, includes: predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002526770760000081
where t represents a second preset time period, f (θ)t) Representing a risk value, x, of the target instance resource theta within a second preset time periodtAnd mtRespectively representing the interruption times and the risk test times in the real-time interruption data of the target instance resource theta; y istAnd ntRespectively representing the interruption times in the historical interruption data of a target instance resource theta and the total number of instance resources which belong to the same service type and are in a running state with the target instance resource; z is a radical oftAnd otThe values corresponding to the numerator and denominator after representing the risk recovery value as a fraction are respectively represented.
For example, in the statistics of c4.xlarge in the time period of 8 o 'clock to 9 o' clock in the morning: when x is 50, m is 1000, y is 50, n is 2000, z is 10, and o is 100, the risk value is calculated to be 92.5 according to the above formula.
According to the risk prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource are obtained; acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period; and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. By adopting the technical means, the unstable risk of the instance resource can be accurately and effectively evaluated, so that the user can be helped to master the recovery risk of the instance resource, and the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.
In some embodiments, after predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the risk statistics, the historical outage data, and the real-time outage data, further comprising: and displaying the risk value of the target instance resource. This has the advantage of allowing the user to accurately understand the risk of being reclaimed after bidding on the instance resource.
Illustratively, by the risk prediction method provided by the embodiment of the present invention, the calculated risk value of each instance resource is shown in the following table:
instance instance 2 instance 3
available zone a 100.0 98.5 75.0
available zone b 100.0 94.9 50.5
available zone c 99.5 90.5 25
the risk value of the instance resource is in the interval of [0,100], the larger the value corresponding to the risk value is, the smaller the risk of the instance resource being recovered is shown, and the smaller the value corresponding to the risk value is, the larger the risk of the instance resource being recovered is shown. For example, a risk value of 100 for an instance resource indicates that the instance resource is least risky to be reclaimed, and a risk value of 0 for an instance resource indicates that the instance resource is most risky to be reclaimed (or may be considered as unavailable).
Optionally, displaying the risk value of the target instance resource includes: and displaying the risk value of the target instance resource and marking the risk value with a color, wherein the larger the risk value is, the lighter the color of the mark is. The advantage of this arrangement is that the user can clearly and intuitively know the recycling risk of the instance resource through the color and the risk value, so that the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.
Fig. 2 is a block diagram of a risk prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the risk prediction apparatus may be implemented by software and/or hardware, and is generally integrated in an electronic device, and may perform risk prediction by executing a risk prediction method. As shown in fig. 2, the apparatus includes:
a first obtaining module 201, configured to obtain a risk statistic of a target instance resource within a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
a second obtaining module 202, configured to obtain real-time interruption data of the target instance resource within a second preset time period;
a risk prediction module 203, configured to predict a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the risk statistics, the historical interrupt data, and the real-time interrupt data.
The risk prediction device provided by the embodiment of the invention acquires a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource; acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period; and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. By adopting the technical means, the unstable risk of the instance resource can be accurately and effectively evaluated, so that the user can be helped to master the recovery risk of the instance resource, and the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.
Optionally, the risk prediction module is configured to:
predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0002526770760000101
where t represents a second preset time period, f (θ)t) Representing a risk value, x, of the target instance resource theta within a second preset time periodtAnd mtRespectively representing the interruption times and the risk test times in the real-time interruption data of the target instance resource theta; y istAnd ntRespectively representing the interruption times in the historical interruption data of a target instance resource theta and the total number of instance resources which belong to the same service type and are in a running state with the target instance resource; z is a radical oftAnd otThe values corresponding to the numerator and denominator after representing the risk recovery value as a fraction are respectively represented.
Optionally, the second obtaining module is configured to:
performing risk test on the target instance resource in real time within a second preset time period;
and determining real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk test result.
Optionally, the apparatus further comprises:
and the risk value display module is used for displaying the risk value of the target instance resource after predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
Optionally, the risk value display module is configured to:
and displaying the risk value of the target instance resource and marking the risk value with a color, wherein the larger the risk value is, the lighter the color of the mark is.
Embodiments of the present invention also provide a storage medium containing computer-executable instructions, which when executed by a computer processor, perform a method for risk prediction, the method comprising:
acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period;
and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
Storage medium-any of various types of memory devices or storage devices. The term "storage medium" is intended to include: mounting media such as CD-ROM, floppy disk, or tape devices; computer system memory or random access memory such as DRAM, DDRRAM, SRAM, EDORAM, Lanbas (Rambus) RAM, etc.; non-volatile memory such as flash memory, magnetic media (e.g., hard disk or optical storage); registers or other similar types of memory elements, etc. The storage medium may also include other types of memory or combinations thereof. In addition, the storage medium may be located in a first computer system in which the program is executed, or may be located in a different second computer system connected to the first computer system through a network (such as the internet). The second computer system may provide program instructions to the first computer for execution. The term "storage medium" may include two or more storage media that may reside in different locations, such as in different computer systems that are connected by a network. The storage medium may store program instructions (e.g., embodied as a computer program) that are executable by one or more processors.
Of course, the storage medium containing the computer-executable instructions provided by the embodiments of the present invention is not limited to the risk prediction operations described above, and may also perform related operations in the risk prediction method provided by any embodiments of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention provides electronic equipment, wherein the risk prediction device provided by the embodiment of the invention can be integrated in the electronic equipment. Fig. 3 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention. The electronic device 300 may include: a memory 301, a processor 302 and a computer program stored on the memory 301 and executable on the processor, wherein the processor 302 implements the risk prediction method according to the embodiment of the present invention when executing the computer program.
The electronic equipment provided by the embodiment of the invention acquires a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource; acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period; and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data. By adopting the technical means, the unstable risk of the instance resource can be accurately and effectively evaluated, so that the user can be helped to master the recovery risk of the instance resource, and the user can better select the appropriate instance resource.
The risk prediction device, the storage medium and the electronic device provided in the above embodiments may execute the risk prediction method provided in any embodiment of the present invention, and have corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects for executing the method. For technical details that are not described in detail in the above embodiments, reference may be made to the risk prediction method provided in any embodiment of the present invention.
It is to be noted that the foregoing is only illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention and the technical principles employed. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the particular embodiments described herein, but is capable of various obvious changes, rearrangements and substitutions as will now become apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the scope of the invention. Therefore, although the present invention has been described in greater detail by the above embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and may include other equivalent embodiments without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is determined by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method of risk prediction, comprising:
acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period;
and predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second predetermined time period based on the risk statistics, the historical outage data, and the real-time outage data comprises:
predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0002526770750000011
where t represents a second preset time period, f (θ)t) Representing a risk value, x, of the target instance resource theta within a second preset time periodtAnd mtNumber of interruptions in real-time interruption data and wind-time interruption data each representing a target instance resource thetaThe number of risk tests; y istAnd ntRespectively representing the interruption times in the historical interruption data of a target instance resource theta and the total number of instance resources which belong to the same service type and are in a running state with the target instance resource; z is a radical oftAnd otThe values corresponding to the numerator and denominator after representing the risk recovery value as a fraction are respectively represented.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining real-time interruption data of the target instance resource within a second preset time period comprises:
performing risk test on the target instance resource in real time within a second preset time period;
and determining real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk test result.
4. The method of claim 1, further comprising, after predicting a risk value for the target instance resource within the second predetermined time period based on the risk statistics, the historical outage data, and the real-time outage data:
and displaying the risk value of the target instance resource.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein displaying the risk value for the target instance resource comprises:
and displaying the risk value of the target instance resource and marking the risk value with a color, wherein the larger the risk value is, the lighter the color of the mark is.
6. A risk prediction device, comprising:
the system comprises a first acquisition module, a second acquisition module and a third acquisition module, wherein the first acquisition module is used for acquiring a risk statistic value of a target instance resource in a first preset time period and historical interruption data of the target instance resource;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in a second preset time period;
and the risk prediction module is used for predicting the risk value of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk statistic value, the historical interrupt data and the real-time interrupt data.
7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the risk prediction module is configured to:
predicting a risk value of the target instance resource within the second preset time period according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0002526770750000021
where t represents a second preset time period, f (θ)t) Representing a risk value, x, of the target instance resource theta within a second preset time periodtAnd mtRespectively representing the interruption times and the risk test times in the real-time interruption data of the target instance resource theta; y istAnd ntRespectively representing the interruption times in the historical interruption data of a target instance resource theta and the total number of instance resources which belong to the same service type and are in a running state with the target instance resource; z is a radical oftAnd otThe values corresponding to the numerator and denominator after representing the risk recovery value as a fraction are respectively represented.
8. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the second obtaining module is configured to:
performing risk test on the target instance resource in real time within a second preset time period;
and determining real-time interruption data of the target instance resource in the second preset time period according to the risk test result.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the risk prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the risk prediction method of any of claims 1-5.
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