CN111668844B - 风电/光伏富余电力参与跨省消纳的优化配置方法 - Google Patents

风电/光伏富余电力参与跨省消纳的优化配置方法 Download PDF

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CN111668844B
CN111668844B CN202010543397.4A CN202010543397A CN111668844B CN 111668844 B CN111668844 B CN 111668844B CN 202010543397 A CN202010543397 A CN 202010543397A CN 111668844 B CN111668844 B CN 111668844B
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程基峰
严正
贠靖洋
李明节
董存
范高锋
梁志峰
王跃峰
刘思扬
范维
徐潇源
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Shanghai Jiaotong University
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
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Abstract

一种风电/光伏富余电力优化配置方法，采用最小二乘法对来自电力调度系统的实际预测数据进行回归分析，得到新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布的解析表达式；然后结合调度计划计算新能源场站富余电力累积概率分布；对新能源场站出力上限进行断面安全校核计算，按越限断面内各场站富余电力比例削减该场站的富余电力上限，得到富余电力累积概率分布的分段函数；最后将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，确定参加日前外送的富余电力，从而实现新能源富余电力跨区域优化配置。本发明能够将本地区无法消纳的富余电力可以参与日前跨区交易，外送至其他地区予以消纳。

Description

风电/光伏富余电力参与跨省消纳的优化配置方法
技术领域
本发明涉及的是一种电力系统运行控制领域的技术，具体是一种基于概率预测及调度计划的风电/光伏富余电力跨区域交易优化配置方法。
背景技术
现有风电/光伏富余电力资源分配技术主要通过参考火电机组爬坡能力和日内风电/光伏预测结果，调低火电机组出力，消纳部分富余电力。由于缺少客观描述富余电力不确定性的数学模型以及相应的计算方法，在目前的电力系统调度和交易部门中，富余电力只能以常数形式在日内调用。这种方法在经济性和安全性方面都有明显不足。在经济性上，火电机组被动下调出力的方式只能消纳有限的富余电力，造成了发电资源浪费、新能源场站收入偏低的现象。在安全性上，该方法占用了大量的备用容量，容易导致电网备用容量短缺。
发明内容
本发明针对现有技术存在的上述不足，提出一种风电/光伏富余电力优化配置方法，解决了现有富余电力处理方式可靠性低、可用时间尺度短、占用备用容量大的问题，使本地区无法消纳的富余电力可以参与日前跨区交易，外送至其他地区予以消纳。
本发明是通过以下技术方案实现的：
本发明涉及一种风电/光伏富余电力优化配置方法，采用最小二乘法对来自电力调度系统的实际预测数据进行回归分析，得到新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布的解析表达式；然后结合调度计划计算新能源场站富余电力累积概率分布；对新能源场站出力上限进行断面安全校核计算，按越限断面内各场站富余电力比例削减该场站的富余电力上限，得到富余电力累积概率分布的分段函数；最后将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，确定参加日前外送的富余电力，从而实现新能源富余电力跨区域优化配置。
所述的实际预测数据包括：分位数、累积概率等形式的风电/光伏预测功率数据。
所述的新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布的解析表达式，通过以下方式得到：选取拟合函数F(x,a)，其中：x为新能源场站的出力，a＝[a1,a2,…an]为该函数的参数向量；根据最小二乘法原理，对新能源场站的预测出力数据进行拟合，得到满足拟合优度条件的参数向量acf＝[acf1,acf2,…acfn]，进而得到新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布函数的解析表达式F(x,acf)。F(x,acf)的参数向量acf已经确定，只有x一个自变量，因此记为Fpre(x)。
所述的富余电力是指：新能源电站预测发电功率与调度部门下发的新能源电站计划发电功率之差，即Prich＝Ppre-Pplan。
所述的新能源场站富余电力累积概率分布，通过富余电力定义和预测出力累积概率分布函数Fpre(x)计算出的富余电力累积概率分布函数Frich(x)，即Frich(Prich)＝Fpre(Prich+Pplan)。
所述的富余电力累积概率分布的分段函数，通过电力系统安全校核要求确定的新能源场站出力上限，计算场站富余电力上限Pmax得到，具体为：Fresult(Prich)，即
Figure BDA0002539716550000021
Figure BDA0002539716550000022
所述的新能源富余电力跨区域优化配置，具体通过在富余电力跨区域日前现货交易中，将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，可以制定一定置信度下的富余电力跨省外送计划。
本发明涉及一种实现上述方法的系统，包括：预测出力数据拟合模块、富余电力概率分布计算模块和富余电力外送计划优化模块，其中：预测出力数据拟合模块负责处理预测出力数据(如概率预测分位数)，给出预测出力概率分布函数；富余电力概率分布计算模块负责对预测出力概率分布做修正计算和安全校核，给出富余电力概率分布函数；富余电力外送计划优化模块负责根据富余电力概率分布函数，计算对应置信度下的富余电力跨省外送计划。
技术效果
本发明整体解决了现有富余电力调用方式可用时间尺度短、占用备用容量大，不支持新能源参与跨区域日前交易，造成发电资源浪费的技术问题。
与现有技术相比，本发明能够将新能源富余电力能够参与日前跨区域现货交易、提高新能源消纳水平。
附图说明
图1为本发明流程图；
图2为原始数据、预测出力累积概率分布函数的示意图；
图3为实施例中风电预测出力结果和相应的预测出力累积概率分布函数；
图4为实施例理论富余电力累积概率分布函数。
图5为实施例中不同时刻的风电场富余电力优化配置结果。
具体实施方式
本实施例涉及的风电/光伏富余电力概率分布计算方法，包括如下步骤：
步骤1、根据预测数据特点选取拟合函数，根据最小二乘法列出参数方程；
步骤2、求解参数方程，得到预测出力累积概率分布函数Fpre(x)；
步骤3、结合调度计划，计算理论富余电力累积概率分布函数：Frich(Prich)＝Fpre(Prich+Pplan)；
步骤4、对新能源场站出力上限进行断面安全校核计算，按各电站富余电力比例设定越限断面的富余电力上限Pmax；
步骤5、输出富余电力累积概率分布分段函数：
Figure BDA0002539716550000031
将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，确定参加日前外送的富余电力。
本实施例基于我国某省春季电力系统运行数据，进行了富余电力累积概率分布函数的计算。数据预测时间为2019年4月12日-25日。预测出力的原始数据为出力概率0.05～0.5的双侧分位数及累计概率为0.5的功率。由此可以获得预测出力累积概率分布上的23个点。
共对336个时刻的预测出力进行计算，所有计算结果的拟合优度均大于0.9，拟合效果很好。选择了7种不同出力情况的概率预测数据和计算结果，在图中列出。图3为场站出力典型概率分布情况；图4为图3对应的富余电力概率分布情况。
经过具体实际实验，在我国北方某省春季的具体环境设置下，以电力系统实际参数运行上述方法，能够得到的实验数据是：在现有风电/光伏调用手段下，某风电场4月12日至25日期间弃风电量为5393.8MWh。在使用本方法后，取置信度为0.2时，该风电场弃风电量为4412.4MWh。
综上，本实施例中给出了刻画新能源富余电力随机性的数学模型，解决了现有富余电力处理方式可靠性低、可用时间尺度短、占用备用容量大的问题；本实施例完成了富余电力累积概率分布分段函数的计算，使新能源富余电力能够参与日前跨区域现货交易。
与现有技术相比，本方法显著提高了风电/光伏消纳电量。以容量为100MW的风电场为例，两周时间内增加消纳电量981.35MW，减少的弃风电量占比达到18.19％。
上述具体实施可由本领域技术人员在不背离本发明原理和宗旨的前提下以不同的方式对其进行局部调整，本发明的保护范围以权利要求书为准且不由上述具体实施所限，在其范围内的各个实现方案均受本发明之约束。

Claims (2)

1.一种风电/光伏富余电力优化配置方法，其特征在于，采用最小二乘法对来自电力调度系统的实际预测数据进行回归分析，得到新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布的解析表达式；然后结合调度计划计算新能源场站富余电力累积概率分布；对新能源场站出力上限进行断面安全校核计算，按越限断面内各场站富余电力比例削减该场站的富余电力上限，得到富余电力累积概率分布的分段函数；最后将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，确定参加日前外送的富余电力，从而实现新能源富余电力跨区域优化配置；
所述的实际预测数据包括：分位数、累积概率等形式的风电/光伏预测功率数据；
所述的新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布的解析表达式，通过以下方式得到：选取拟合函数F(x，a)，其中：x为新能源场站的出力，a＝[a1，a2，...an]为该函数的参数向量；根据最小二乘法原理，对新能源场站的预测出力数据进行拟合，得到满足拟合优度条件的参数向量acf＝[acf1，acf2，...acfn]，进而得到新能源场站预测出力累积概率分布函数的解析表达式F(x，acf)，F(x，acf)的参数向量acf已经确定，只有x一个自变量，因此记为Fpre(x)；
所述的富余电力是指：新能源电站预测发电功率与调度部门下发的新能源电站计划发电功率之差，即Prich＝Ppre-Pplan；
所述的新能源场站富余电力累积概率分布，通过富余电力定义和预测出力累积概率分布函数Fpre(x)计算出的富余电力累积概率分布函数Frich(x)，即Frich(Prich)＝Fpre(Prich+Pplan)；
所述的富余电力累积概率分布的分段函数，通过电力系统安全校核要求确定的新能源场站出力上限，计算场站富余电力上限Pmax得到，具体为Fresult(Prich)，即
Figure FDA0003722105570000011
Figure FDA0003722105570000012
所述的新能源富余电力跨区域优化配置，具体通过在富余电力跨区域日前现货交易中，将调度部门预设的新能源出力置信度代入富余电力累积概率分布分段函数中，可以制定一定置信度下的富余电力跨区域日前交易计划。
2.一种实现权利要求1所述方法的系统，其特征在于，包括：预测出力数据拟合模块、富余电力概率分布计算模块和富余电力外送计划优化模块，其中：预测出力数据拟合模块负责处理预测出力数据，给出预测出力概率分布函数；富余电力概率分布计算模块负责对预测出力概率分布做修正计算和安全校核，给出富余电力概率分布函数；富余电力外送计划优化模块负责根据富余电力概率分布函数，计算对应置信度下的富余电力跨省外送计划。
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