CN111667149A - System efficiency evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明提出了一种面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，包括：配置大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库，配置管理网络参数并配置研究网络参数，然后根据管理网络参数和研究网络参数，配置资源分配规则；配置运行状态与专家评估数据源；配置实验任务；运行实验；分析仿真结果。本发明建立了面向大型科技工程、能将实际业务信息、静态评估数据纳入仿真模型进行融合计算的方法；使用年度专家评估数据对仿真模型进行实时矫正，使模型具有较强的预测能力。
The invention proposes a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation, including: configuring a simulation model library of a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, configuring management network parameters and configuring research network parameters, Network parameters, configure resource allocation rules; configure operating status and expert evaluation data sources; configure experimental tasks; run experiments; analyze simulation results. The invention establishes a method for large-scale scientific and technological projects, which can incorporate actual business information and static evaluation data into the simulation model for fusion calculation; the simulation model is corrected in real time by using the annual expert evaluation data, so that the model has strong prediction ability.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及效能评估技术领域，特别涉及一种面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法。The invention relates to the technical field of efficiency evaluation, in particular to a system efficiency evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation.
背景技术Background technique
(1)现有的效能评估方法主要面向一个单一系统，一般是将该系统划分为多个子模块，然后分别进行评估并汇总结果；大型科技工程的特点是拥有诸多子系统，子系统内部节点互相关联形成复杂网络，整体上，大型科技工程体系虽然有一定的上下级分层结构，但是体系的运行演化更大程度上依赖于复杂网络中节点的相互作用，而非自上而下的行政指挥。因此传统效能评估方法无法应用到对大型科技工程的演化分析与体系效能评估工作上。(1) The existing effectiveness evaluation methods are mainly oriented to a single system, generally dividing the system into multiple sub-modules, and then evaluating them separately and summarizing the results; the characteristics of large-scale scientific and technological projects are that there are many subsystems, and the internal nodes of the subsystems interact with each other. Associations form a complex network. On the whole, although a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system has a certain hierarchical structure, the operation and evolution of the system depends to a greater extent on the interaction of nodes in the complex network, rather than the top-down administrative command. . Therefore, the traditional performance evaluation method cannot be applied to the evolution analysis and system performance evaluation of large-scale scientific and technological projects.
(2)目前实践中，对大型科技工程的体系效能评估，主要使用基于专家打分的方法，该方法高度依赖于评估体系与评估指标的构建，而后者也需要通过专家进行设计，评估体系的构建时间长、成本高、调整困难、人为影响因素多。(2) In current practice, the system efficiency evaluation of large-scale scientific and technological projects mainly uses the method based on expert scoring, which is highly dependent on the construction of the evaluation system and evaluation indicators, and the latter also needs to be designed by experts and the construction of the evaluation system Long time, high cost, difficult adjustment, and many human factors.
(3)目前针对这一领域的前沿研究中，主要是用基于仿真模型的评估方法，该方法需要依赖大量的假设条件，在目前对大型科技工程体系的实证研究数据不足的情况下，这些模型假设普遍依赖理想假设，因此仿真模型与实际大型科技工程体系的实际运行数据对接不够紧密，仿真模型的运行结果对实际科技工程管理工作的参考性、指导性不足。(3) In the current frontier research in this field, the evaluation method based on simulation model is mainly used, which needs to rely on a large number of assumptions. Assumptions generally rely on ideal assumptions, so the connection between the simulation model and the actual operation data of the actual large-scale scientific and technological engineering system is not close enough, and the running results of the simulation model are insufficient for reference and guidance for the management of actual scientific and technological projects.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
本发明的目的旨在至少解决所述技术缺陷之一。The purpose of the present invention is to solve at least one of the technical defects.
为此，本发明的目的在于提出一种面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法。Therefore, the purpose of the present invention is to propose a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation.
为了实现上述目的，本发明的实施例提供一种面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，包括如下步骤：In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation, comprising the following steps:
步骤S1，根据计算工作选择模型，配置管理网络参数并配置研究网络参数，然后根据管理网络参数和研究网络参数，配置资源分配规则；Step S1, according to the calculation work selection model, configure the management network parameters and configure the research network parameters, and then configure the resource allocation rules according to the management network parameters and the research network parameters;
步骤S2，配置运行状态与专家评估数据源；Step S2, configure the data source of running status and expert evaluation;
步骤S3，配置实验任务；Step S3, configure the experimental task;
步骤S4，运行实验；Step S4, run the experiment;
步骤S5，分析仿真结果。Step S5, analyze the simulation result.
进一步，所述大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库包括：大型科技工程体系整体演化模型和大型科技工程体系静态评估模型，其中，Further, the simulation model library of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: the overall evolution model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system and the static evaluation model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, wherein,
所述大型科技工程体系整体演化模型包括：大型科技工程研究网络演化模型、大型科技工程管理网络演化模型和大型科技工程数据校正模型；The overall evolution model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: a large-scale scientific and technological engineering research network evolution model, a large-scale scientific and technological engineering management network evolution model and a large-scale scientific and technological engineering data correction model;
所述大型科技工程体系静态评估模型包括：大型科技工程管理能力评估模型和大型科技工程研究能力评估模型。The large-scale scientific and technological engineering system static evaluation model includes: a large-scale scientific and technological engineering management capability evaluation model and a large-scale scientific and technological engineering research capability evaluation model.
进一步，在所述步骤S3中，配置实验任务包括：设定所述大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库的多次运行方式、参数取值或参数生成规则、实验运行次数和停止条件。Further, in the step S3, configuring the experimental task includes: setting the multiple operation mode of the simulation model library of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, the parameter value or parameter generation rule, the number of experimental runs and the stop condition.
进一步，在所述步骤S4中，所述运行实验包括：根据实验配置，调用仿真模型产生并存储计算结果。Further, in the step S4, the running the experiment includes: calling the simulation model to generate and store the calculation result according to the experimental configuration.
进一步，在所述步骤S5中，所述分析仿真结果包括：选择大型科技工程体系效能分析模板，对仿真实验结果进行分析。Further, in the step S5, the analyzing the simulation results includes: selecting a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system efficiency analysis template, and analyzing the simulation experiment results.
进一步，所述对仿真实验结果进行分析，包括：对仿真实验结果进行整体分析、研究网络分析、管理网络分析、年度分析和多情境分析。Further, the analysis of the simulation experiment results includes: overall analysis, research network analysis, management network analysis, annual analysis and multi-situation analysis of the simulation experiment results.
进一步，对确定的模型参数设定取值区间和取值间隔，产生每个参数的取值，对所有参数取值进行正交，产生N个实验点数据；Further, a value interval and a value interval are set for the determined model parameters, the value of each parameter is generated, and the values of all parameters are orthogonalized to generate N experimental point data;
利用仿真模型计算出第T年的能力得分仿真效果，计算仿真结果与基于专家打分表求得的能力得分的误差，并得到最小误差值；Use the simulation model to calculate the simulation effect of the ability score in the T year, calculate the error between the simulation result and the ability score based on the expert scoring table, and obtain the minimum error value;
如果所述最小误差值未达到预设目标，则进行下一轮实验，重新选取参数取值区间和取值间隔，重新计算误差，直到达到误差目标；If the minimum error value does not reach the preset target, then carry out the next round of experiments, reselect the parameter value interval and value interval, and recalculate the error until the error target is reached;
选取误差最小的一组实验参数作为模型预测参数。A set of experimental parameters with the smallest error is selected as the model prediction parameters.
进一步，配置管理数据包括：科技工程整体研究计划；管理部门的名称、职能、团队能力评估得分；大型科技工程的规划管理、计划管理、合同管理审批流程；研究团队的研究领域、研究学科、能力指标数据。Further, the configuration management data includes: the overall research plan of science and technology engineering; the name, function, and team ability evaluation score of the management department; the approval process of planning management, plan management, and contract management of large-scale science and technology projects; research fields, research disciplines, and capabilities of the research team indicator data.
进一步，对大型科技工程研究网络演化模型，对研究团队构成的复杂网络演化规律进行仿真实现。Further, the research network evolution model of large-scale scientific and technological engineering is simulated and realized for the complex network evolution law formed by the research team.
进一步，利用仿真模型计算出第T年的能力得分仿真结果，计算仿真结果与基于专家打分表求得的能力得分的误差，计算出最小误差值，如果所述最小误差值未达到目标，则进行下一轮实验，重新选取参数取值区间和取值间隔，重新计算误差，直到达到误差目标。Further, use the simulation model to calculate the ability score simulation result of the T-th year, calculate the error between the simulation result and the ability score obtained based on the expert scoring table, calculate the minimum error value, if the minimum error value does not reach the target, then carry out. In the next round of experiments, reselect the parameter value interval and value interval, and recalculate the error until the error target is reached.
进一步，配置大型科技工程体系仿真模型，包括：配置模型输入数据源、输出数据格式。Further, configure the simulation model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, including: configuring the input data source and output data format of the model.
根据本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，According to the system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to the embodiment of the present invention,
(1)建立了面向大型科技工程、能将实际业务信息、静态评估数据纳入仿真模型进行融合计算的方法；(1) Established a method for large-scale scientific and technological projects, which can incorporate actual business information and static evaluation data into the simulation model for fusion calculation;
(2)使用年度专家评估数据对仿真模型进行实时矫正，使模型具有较强的预测能力；(2) Use the annual expert evaluation data to correct the simulation model in real time, so that the model has strong predictive ability;
(3)在仿真模型中，根据大型科技工程实际特点，建立管理网络、研究网络两个复杂系统功能，降低了模型假设的复杂度、提升了仿真模型运行结果的可解释性。(3) In the simulation model, according to the actual characteristics of large-scale scientific and technological projects, two complex system functions of management network and research network are established, which reduces the complexity of model assumptions and improves the interpretability of simulation model operation results.
(4)面向大型科技工程体系整体演化和静态评估的仿真模型库、实验配置功能、实验运行环境、数据存储功能。(4) Simulation model library, experiment configuration function, experiment operation environment, and data storage function for the overall evolution and static evaluation of large-scale scientific and technological engineering systems.
(5)大型科技工程体系整体演化模型中的研究网络、管理网络、数据校正功能。(5) Research network, management network, and data correction functions in the overall evolution model of large-scale scientific and technological engineering systems.
本发明附加的方面和优点将在下面的描述中部分给出，部分将从下面的描述中变得明显，或通过本发明的实践了解到。Additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will be set forth, in part, from the following description, and in part will be apparent from the following description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.
附图说明Description of drawings
本发明的上述和/或附加的方面和优点从结合下面附图对实施例的描述中将变得明显和容易理解，其中：The above and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily understood from the following description of embodiments taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:
图1为根据本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法的流程框图；1 is a flowchart of a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图2为根据本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法的流程图；2 is a flowchart of a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图3为根据本发明实施例的静态评估和动态演化的示意图；3 is a schematic diagram of static evaluation and dynamic evolution according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图4为根据本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法的架构图。FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面详细描述本发明的实施例，所述实施例的示例在附图中示出，其中自始至终相同或类似的标号表示相同或类似的元件或具有相同或类似功能的元件。下面通过参考附图描述的实施例是示例性的，旨在用于解释本发明，而不能理解为对本发明的限制。The following describes in detail the embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary, and are intended to explain the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
如图1所示，本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，包括如下步骤：As shown in FIG. 1 , the system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
步骤S1，配置大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库，配置管理网络参数并配置研究网络参数，然后根据管理网络参数和研究网络参数，配置资源分配规则。Step S1, configure a simulation model library of a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, configure management network parameters and configure research network parameters, and then configure resource allocation rules according to management network parameters and research network parameters.
具体的，配置大型科技工程体系仿真模型，包括：选择静态评估、模型训练、模型预测中的一项，配置模型输入数据源、输出数据格式。Specifically, configuring a simulation model of a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: selecting one of static evaluation, model training, and model prediction, and configuring the model input data source and output data format.
(1)配置输入数据文件：(1) Configure the input data file:
(2)配置模型运行参数(2) Configure the model running parameters
表1Table 1
表2Table 2
在本发明的实施例中，大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库包括：大型科技工程体系整体演化模型和大型科技工程体系静态评估模型，其中，In the embodiment of the present invention, the simulation model library of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: the overall evolution model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system and the static evaluation model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, wherein,
大型科技工程体系整体演化模型包括：大型科技工程研究网络演化模型、大型科技工程管理网络演化模型和大型科技工程数据校正模型；The overall evolution model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: the large-scale scientific and technological engineering research network evolution model, the large-scale scientific and technological engineering management network evolution model and the large-scale scientific and technological engineering data correction model;
大型科技工程体系静态评估模型包括：大型科技工程管理能力评估模型和大型科技工程研究能力评估模型。The static evaluation model of large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: large-scale scientific and technological engineering management capability evaluation model and large-scale scientific and technological engineering research capability evaluation model.
在本步骤中，配置管理数据包括：科技工程整体研究计划；管理部门的名称、职能、团队能力评估得分；大型科技工程的规划管理、计划管理、合同管理审批流程；研究团队的研究领域、研究学科、能力指标数据。In this step, the configuration management data includes: the overall research plan of the science and technology project; the name, function, and team capability evaluation score of the management department; the approval process of the planning management, plan management, and contract management of the large-scale science and technology project; Discipline, ability index data.
在本发明中，面向大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库，包括：大型科技工程体系整体演化模型。In the present invention, the simulation model library for the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system includes: the overall evolution model of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system.
导入以下数据：科技工程整体研究计划；管理部门的名称、职能、团队能力评估得分；大型科技工程的规划管理、计划管理、合同管理审批流程；研究团队的研究领域、研究学科、能力指标数据(发表论文数、专利数、获奖数、团队人数(分高级职称、中级职称、初级职称人数))。Import the following data: the overall research plan of science and technology projects; the name, function, and team ability evaluation score of the management department; the approval process of planning management, plan management, and contract management of large-scale science and technology projects; the research field, research discipline, and ability index data of the research team ( Number of papers published, number of patents, number of awards, number of teams (number of senior titles, intermediate titles, and junior titles)).
本发明可以实现以下功能：The present invention can realize the following functions:
基于研究计划，预测未来每年的合同数量、合同执行周期、合同归属团队、合同得分；预测研究团队能力，管理部门能力；计算科技工程体系效能；大型科技工程研究网络演化模型，对研究团队构成的复杂网络演化规律进行仿真实现。Based on the research plan, predict the number of contracts, contract execution cycle, contract ownership team, and contract score each year in the future; predict the capabilities of research teams and management departments; calculate the efficiency of scientific and technological engineering systems; The evolution law of complex network is simulated and realized.
本发明可以实现对以下方面进行仿真：The present invention can realize to simulate the following aspects:
预测跨团队合作关系(如果至少有一个同时归属两个团队的成员，则称两个团队存在跨团队合作关系)；基于跨团队合作关系的研究合作网络的结构演化(网络规模、中心度、脆弱性)；大型科技工程管理网络演化模型，对管理体系的业务流程进行仿真实现；预测未来每年各管理部门审批合同的数量和效率；预测未来每年各管理部门管理业务流程的改变。Predicting cross-team cooperative relationships (two teams are said to have a cross-team cooperative relationship if there is at least one member belonging to both teams); study the structural evolution of cooperative networks based on cross-team cooperative relationships (network size, centrality, fragility The evolution model of large-scale scientific and technological engineering management network, simulates and realizes the business process of the management system; predicts the number and efficiency of contracts approved by each management department each year in the future; predicts the changes in the management business process of each management department in the future.
本发明进一步提供大型科技工程静态评估模块，包含管理能力评估、研究能力评估，可以在仿真模型的任意演化时刻，导出静态评估结果，参考表3。The present invention further provides a large-scale scientific and technological engineering static evaluation module, which includes management capability evaluation and research capability evaluation, and can derive static evaluation results at any evolution time of the simulation model, refer to Table 3.
表3table 3
步骤S2，配置运行状态与专家评估数据源。Step S2, configure the data source of running status and expert evaluation.
配置大型科技工程体系运行状态数据和效能评估数据，建立年度数据与仿真模型的关联关系。Configure the operation status data and efficiency evaluation data of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, and establish the relationship between the annual data and the simulation model.
根据静态评估指标的层级、实际意义、数据格式特点，和动态演化模型的变量意义、层次等多种因素综合考虑，使用以下策略进行指标的对应：According to the level, actual meaning, data format characteristics of the static evaluation indicators, and the variable meaning and level of the dynamic evolution model, the following strategies are used to map the indicators:
人才队伍能力评估的末级指标(团队能力得分)对应动态演化模型的团队agent的能力值，管理能力评估指标的顶层指标(一级和二级指标)对应动态演化模型的各项全局参数(即系统宏观假设)。具体对应关系如表4所示。The final index (team ability score) of the talent team ability evaluation corresponds to the ability value of the team agent of the dynamic evolution model, and the top-level indexes (first-level and second-level indexes) of the management ability evaluation index correspond to various global parameters of the dynamic evolution model (ie system macro assumptions). The specific correspondence is shown in Table 4.
表4Table 4
步骤S3，配置实验任务。Step S3, configure experimental tasks.
在本步骤中，配置实验任务包括：设定大型科技工程体系的仿真模型库的多次运行方式(蒙特卡洛、多情境、遗传算法等)、参数取值或参数生成规则、实验运行次数和停止条件等。In this step, the configuration experiment tasks include: setting the multiple running modes (Monte Carlo, multi-scenario, genetic algorithm, etc.) of the simulation model library of the large-scale scientific and technological engineering system, parameter values or parameter generation rules, the number of experimental runs and stop conditions, etc.
步骤S4，运行实验。Step S4, run the experiment.
在本步骤中，运行实验包括：根据实验配置，调用仿真模型产生并存储计算结果。In this step, running the experiment includes: calling the simulation model to generate and store the calculation result according to the experimental configuration.
在本发明的实施例中，仿真实验运行环境：仿真模型的托管运行环境，能够按照实验设计，对指定的仿真模型进行单次运行、多次运行、或依据前一次运行结果调整参数多次迭代运行。In the embodiment of the present invention, the simulation experiment operating environment is a managed operating environment for the simulation model, which can perform a single operation, multiple operations, or adjust parameters for multiple iterations according to the previous operation result on the specified simulation model according to the experimental design. run.
步骤S5，分析仿真结果。Step S5, analyze the simulation result.
在本步骤中，分析仿真结果包括：选择大型科技工程体系效能分析模板，对仿真实验结果进行分析。In this step, analyzing the simulation results includes: selecting a large-scale scientific and technological engineering system efficiency analysis template, and analyzing the simulation experiment results.
对仿真实验结果进行分析，包括：对仿真实验结果进行整体分析、研究网络分析、管理网络分析、年度分析和多情境分析。Analyze the results of simulation experiments, including: overall analysis of simulation results, research network analysis, management network analysis, annual analysis and multi-situation analysis.
本发明提供运行结果可视化分析功能：对仿真模型运行结果数据进行抽取和多维度交叉分析，对结果利用线状图、饼图、散点图等可视化方式进行呈现。The invention provides the function of visual analysis of the running results: extracting and multi-dimensional cross-analysis of the running result data of the simulation model, and presenting the results by means of visualization methods such as line graphs, pie graphs, and scatter graphs.
此外，本发明可以提供大型科技工程数据校正功能，将专家评价数据输入模型，训练模型参数。数据见附件表3专家打分表。训练方法为：In addition, the present invention can provide a large-scale scientific and technological engineering data correction function, input expert evaluation data into the model, and train model parameters. For the data, see the expert scoring table in Table 3 in the appendix. The training method is:
(1)对待确定的模型参数(主要包括团队能力成长假设、团队合作倾向假设、管理部门能力成长假设、管理流程变化假设)设定取值区间和取值间隔，产生每个参数的取值，对所有参数取值进行正交，产生N个实验(N＝m1*m2*m3…，m1,m2,m3为每个参数的取点数)(1) Set the value interval and value interval for the model parameters to be determined (mainly including the assumption of team ability growth, team cooperation tendency assumption, management department ability growth assumption, and management process change assumption), and generate the value of each parameter, Orthogonalize all parameter values to generate N experiments (N=m1*m2*m3..., m1, m2, m3 are the number of points for each parameter)
(2)利用仿真模型计算出第T年的能力得分仿真结果，计算仿真结果与基于专家打分表求得的能力得分的误差，并得到最小误差值(2) Use the simulation model to calculate the simulation result of the ability score in the T year, calculate the error between the simulation result and the ability score based on the expert scoring table, and obtain the minimum error value
(3)如果最小误差值未达到目标，进行下一轮实验，重新选取参数取值区间和取值间隔，重新计算误差，直到达到误差目标(3) If the minimum error value does not reach the target, carry out the next round of experiments, reselect the parameter value interval and value interval, and recalculate the error until the error target is reached
(4)取误差最小的一组实验参数作为模型预测参数。(4) Take a set of experimental parameters with the smallest error as model prediction parameters.
本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，进一步包括：对大型科技工程研究网络演化模型，对研究团队构成的复杂网络演化规律进行仿真实现。The system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to the embodiment of the present invention further includes: simulating and realizing the evolutionary law of the complex network formed by the research team for the large-scale scientific and technological engineering research network evolution model.
利用仿真模型计算出第T年的能力得分仿真结果，计算仿真结果与基于专家打分表求得的能力得分的误差，计算出最小误差值，如果最小误差值未达到目标，则进行下一轮实验，重新选取参数取值区间和取值间隔，重新计算误差，直到达到误差目标。Use the simulation model to calculate the simulation result of the ability score in the T year, calculate the error between the simulation result and the ability score based on the expert scoring table, and calculate the minimum error value. If the minimum error value does not reach the target, the next round of experiments will be carried out. , reselect the parameter value interval and value interval, and recalculate the error until the error target is reached.
根据本发明实施例的面向大型科技工程、仿真和专家评估的体系效能评估方法，According to the system performance evaluation method for large-scale scientific and technological engineering, simulation and expert evaluation according to the embodiment of the present invention,
(1)建立了面向大型科技工程、能将实际业务信息、静态评估数据纳入仿真模型进行融合计算的方法；(1) Established a method for large-scale scientific and technological projects, which can incorporate actual business information and static evaluation data into the simulation model for fusion calculation;
(2)使用年度专家评估数据对仿真模型进行实时矫正，使模型具有较强的预测能力；(2) Use the annual expert evaluation data to correct the simulation model in real time, so that the model has strong predictive ability;
(3)在仿真模型中，根据大型科技工程实际特点，建立管理网络、研究网络两个复杂系统功能，降低了模型假设的复杂度、提升了仿真模型运行结果的可解释性。(3) In the simulation model, according to the actual characteristics of large-scale scientific and technological projects, two complex system functions of management network and research network are established, which reduces the complexity of model assumptions and improves the interpretability of simulation model operation results.
(4)面向大型科技工程体系整体演化和静态评估的仿真模型库、实验配置功能、实验运行环境、数据存储功能。(4) Simulation model library, experiment configuration function, experiment operation environment, and data storage function for the overall evolution and static evaluation of large-scale scientific and technological engineering systems.
(5)大型科技工程体系整体演化模型中的研究网络、管理网络、数据校正功能。(5) Research network, management network, and data correction functions in the overall evolution model of large-scale scientific and technological engineering systems.
在本说明书的描述中，参考术语“一个实施例”、“一些实施例”、“示例”、“具体示例”、或“一些示例”等的描述意指结合该实施例或示例描述的具体特征、结构、材料或者特点包含于本发明的至少一个实施例或示例中。在本说明书中，对上述术语的示意性表述不一定指的是相同的实施例或示例。而且，描述的具体特征、结构、材料或者特点可以在任何的一个或多个实施例或示例中以合适的方式结合。In the description of this specification, description with reference to the terms "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "specific example," or "some examples", etc., mean specific features described in connection with the embodiment or example , structure, material or feature is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, schematic representations of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
尽管上面已经示出和描述了本发明的实施例，可以理解的是，上述实施例是示例性的，不能理解为对本发明的限制，本领域的普通技术人员在不脱离本发明的原理和宗旨的情况下在本发明的范围内可以对上述实施例进行变化、修改、替换和变型。本发明的范围由所附权利要求及其等同限定。Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it should be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Variations, modifications, substitutions, and alterations to the above-described embodiments are possible within the scope of the present invention without departing from the scope of the present invention. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
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