CN111667121A - Method for predicting initial passenger flow of rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data - Google Patents
Method for predicting initial passenger flow of rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data Download PDFInfo
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- CN111667121A CN111667121A CN202010543115.0A CN202010543115A CN111667121A CN 111667121 A CN111667121 A CN 111667121A CN 202010543115 A CN202010543115 A CN 202010543115A CN 111667121 A CN111667121 A CN 111667121A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for predicting initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data, which comprises the following steps: acquiring mobile phone signaling data; processing mobile phone signaling data, and acquiring the traffic volume in the track traffic line corridor: according to a track traffic line corridor corresponding to a track traffic line definition to be researched, carrying out travel identification and travel chain segmentation on the obtained mobile phone signaling data, sorting out travel OD data, carrying out superposition analysis on the travel OD data and the track traffic line corridor, identifying a travel set of which a travel origin-destination point is positioned in the track traffic line corridor in the travel OD data, and obtaining a travel amount in the track traffic line corridor; and (4) calculating the passenger capacity of the rail transit line to be researched, namely multiplying the traffic capacity in the corridor of the rail transit line by a preset proportionality coefficient. The method improves the accuracy and reliability of passenger flow prediction, and provides scientific basis for operation planning, vehicle purchasing and the like of rail transit lines.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for predicting initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data.
Background
At present, the method mainly adopted for predicting the passenger flow of the rail transit is a traditional four-stage model method. Due to the influence of complex external factors, the accuracy and reliability of the passenger flow prediction result of rail transit are questioned, and become a technical problem in the industry. The rail transit passenger flow prediction based on the traditional four-phase model has the following defects.
Firstly, the requirement for collecting basic data is high, and the basic data of the forecast year is also established as a forecast for future hypothesis. Data such as social economy, land utilization, population and employment of a forecast-age city, passenger traffic of an external passenger transport hub of the city, a road network, a public transportation network and the like need to be comprehensively collected;
and secondly, the parameters adopted in the four-stage model are difficult to reflect the future development trend. The parameter values of the four-stage model are calibrated based on travel data of history and current situation investigation, the calibration precision and reliability are very limited, and in the face of uncertainty of urban development, the parameter values are difficult to reflect future travel conditions.
And thirdly, the characteristics of the individual and family trip are difficult to reflect by the four-stage model. The four-stage method is an integrated travel demand prediction method, cannot reflect the characteristics of individual travel, does not consider a travel activity chain, and further cannot reflect the influence of a family on the individual travel, and is a common problem of the industry on the four-stage model.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a method for predicting the initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data, which improves the precision and reliability of passenger flow prediction and provides scientific basis for operation planning, vehicle purchasing and the like of the rail transit line.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problem of the invention is as follows: a method for predicting initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data comprises the following steps:
acquiring mobile phone signaling data;
processing mobile phone signaling data, and acquiring the traffic volume in the track traffic line corridor: according to a track traffic line corridor corresponding to a track traffic line definition to be researched, carrying out travel identification and travel chain segmentation on the obtained mobile phone signaling data, sorting out travel OD data, carrying out superposition analysis on the travel OD data and the track traffic line corridor, identifying a travel set of which a travel origin-destination point is positioned in the track traffic line corridor in the travel OD data, and obtaining a travel amount in the track traffic line corridor;
and (4) calculating the passenger capacity of the rail transit line to be researched, namely multiplying the traffic capacity in the corridor of the rail transit line by a preset proportionality coefficient.
Further, the mobile phone signaling data includes a mobile phone identification number, a date, a time, a longitude and a latitude.
Further, the OD data includes a mobile phone identification number, origin-destination longitude and latitude, departure time, and arrival time.
Further, 800-1000 meters of each of two sides of the rail transit line to be researched is the range of the corridor of the rail transit line.
Further, the preset proportionality coefficient is obtained by investigating other similar lines and analyzing, namely the proportionality coefficient between the passenger traffic volume of other similar lines and the traffic volume in the rail transit corridor.
After the technical scheme is adopted, compared with a traditional four-stage model method, the method has the advantages of simplicity in operation, higher precision and better reliability, the precision and reliability of passenger flow prediction are improved, scientific bases are provided for operation plan arrangement, vehicle purchase and the like of rail transit lines, on one hand, the method can better match the travel demands, improve high-quality travel service, attract citizens to take rail transit, realize green transformation of urban transit structures and reduce urban carbon emission; on the other hand, the method can provide basis for purchasing of vehicles and arrangement of operators, and waste of resources is avoided.
Detailed Description
The invention provides a method for predicting initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data, and a person skilled in the art can appropriately improve technological parameters by referring to the content of the text. It is expressly intended that all such similar substitutes and modifications apparent to those skilled in the art are deemed to be within the scope of the invention. While the methods and applications of this invention have been described in terms of preferred embodiments, it will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art that variations and modifications in the methods and applications described herein, as well as other suitable variations and combinations, may be made to implement and use the techniques of this invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
In order that the present invention may be more clearly understood, the following detailed description of the present invention is given with reference to specific examples.
A method for predicting initial passenger flow of a rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data comprises the following steps:
acquiring mobile phone signaling data;
defining a corresponding track traffic line corridor according to a track traffic line to be researched;
carrying out travel identification and travel chain segmentation on the obtained mobile phone signaling data, and sorting out travel OD data;
overlapping and analyzing the travel OD data and the track traffic line corridor, and identifying a travel set of which the travel origin-destination point is located in the track traffic line corridor in the travel OD data to obtain the travel amount in the track traffic line corridor;
and (4) calculating the passenger capacity of the rail transit line to be researched, namely multiplying the traffic capacity in the corridor of the rail transit line by a preset proportionality coefficient.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the mobile phone signaling data includes a mobile phone identification number, a date, a time, a longitude, and a latitude.
Specifically, in this embodiment, the travel OD data includes a mobile phone identification number, origin-destination longitude and latitude, departure time, and arrival time.
Specifically, in the embodiment, 800-1000 meters of each of two sides of the rail transit line to be researched is the range of the corridor of the rail transit line.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, the preset proportionality coefficient is obtained by investigating other similar lines and analyzing the coefficients, that is, the proportionality coefficient between the passenger traffic volume of other similar lines and the traffic volume in the track traffic corridor.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A rail transit line initial passenger flow prediction method based on mobile phone signaling data is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps:
acquiring mobile phone signaling data;
processing mobile phone signaling data, and acquiring the traffic volume in the track traffic line corridor: according to a track traffic line corridor corresponding to a track traffic line definition to be researched, carrying out travel identification and travel chain segmentation on the obtained mobile phone signaling data, sorting out travel OD data, carrying out superposition analysis on the travel OD data and the track traffic line corridor, identifying a travel set of which a travel origin-destination point is positioned in the track traffic line corridor in the travel OD data, and obtaining a travel amount in the track traffic line corridor;
and (4) calculating the passenger capacity of the rail transit line to be researched, namely multiplying the traffic capacity in the corridor of the rail transit line by a preset proportionality coefficient.
2. The method for predicting the initial passenger flow of the rail transit line based on the mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1,
the mobile phone signaling data comprises a mobile phone identification number, date, time, longitude and latitude.
3. The method for predicting the initial passenger flow of the rail transit line based on the mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1,
the OD data comprises a mobile phone identification number, beginning-destination longitude and latitude, departure time and arrival time.
4. The method for predicting the initial passenger flow of the rail transit line based on the mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1,
800-1000 meters of each of two sides of the rail transit line to be researched is the range of the corridor of the rail transit line.
5. The method for predicting the initial passenger flow of the rail transit line based on the mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1,
the preset proportionality coefficient is obtained by investigating other similar lines and analyzing, namely the proportionality coefficient between the passenger traffic volume of other similar lines and the traffic volume in the rail transit corridor.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN202010543115.0A CN111667121A (en) | 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-15 | Method for predicting initial passenger flow of rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data |
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| CN202010543115.0A CN111667121A (en) | 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-15 | Method for predicting initial passenger flow of rail transit line based on mobile phone signaling data |
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Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2010061321A (en) * | 2008-09-03 | 2010-03-18 | Railway Technical Res Inst | Passenger flow prediction system |
| CN105550789A (en) * | 2016-02-19 | 2016-05-04 | 上海果路交通科技有限公司 | Method for predicting bus taking passenger flow |
| US20170032291A1 (en) * | 2013-12-24 | 2017-02-02 | Zte Corporation | Bus Planning Method Using Mobile Communication Data Mining |
| CN107835486A (en) * | 2017-10-17 | 2018-03-23 | 南京市城市与交通规划设计研究院股份有限公司 | Traffic trip amount computational methods and device |
| CN109905845A (en) * | 2018-12-10 | 2019-06-18 | 华南理工大学 | A kind of bus passenger flow OD acquisition methods based on mobile phone signaling |
-
2020
- 2020-06-15 CN CN202010543115.0A patent/CN111667121A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2010061321A (en) * | 2008-09-03 | 2010-03-18 | Railway Technical Res Inst | Passenger flow prediction system |
| US20170032291A1 (en) * | 2013-12-24 | 2017-02-02 | Zte Corporation | Bus Planning Method Using Mobile Communication Data Mining |
| CN105550789A (en) * | 2016-02-19 | 2016-05-04 | 上海果路交通科技有限公司 | Method for predicting bus taking passenger flow |
| CN107835486A (en) * | 2017-10-17 | 2018-03-23 | 南京市城市与交通规划设计研究院股份有限公司 | Traffic trip amount computational methods and device |
| CN109905845A (en) * | 2018-12-10 | 2019-06-18 | 华南理工大学 | A kind of bus passenger flow OD acquisition methods based on mobile phone signaling |
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