CN111666686A - Monte Carlo simulation-based method for calculating anchor ground capacity - Google Patents
Monte Carlo simulation-based method for calculating anchor ground capacity Download PDFInfo
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- CN111666686A CN111666686A CN202010511314.3A CN202010511314A CN111666686A CN 111666686 A CN111666686 A CN 111666686A CN 202010511314 A CN202010511314 A CN 202010511314A CN 111666686 A CN111666686 A CN 111666686A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a Monte Carlo simulation-based method for calculating anchor land capacity, which comprises the following steps of A, setting boundary conditions and randomly generating anchor position data; B. substituting the randomly generated data into the calculation; C. judging whether the calculated data is available; D. repeated sampling of zeta is carried out for several times to generate independent X values1,X2,X3......,XN(ii) a E. Calculating to obtain an arithmetic mean value of the numerical values; F. according to the theorem of majors, use
As the estimated value of x, the calculation method of the invention can realize automatic calculation of the anchor placeThe anchoring capacity can help management departments to strengthen the macroscopic control of the total amount of ships entering and leaving the port, maintain good navigation order of the port, prevent excessive ships from anchoring at an anchoring ground and provide theoretical basis for strengthening scientific management of anchoring ships.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of calculating the anchor land capacity, in particular to a Monte Carlo simulation-based method for calculating the anchor land capacity.
Background
With the rapid development of import and export trade in China, port and wharf construction is rapidly advanced, but anchor land construction is seriously delayed, and the phenomenon of small anchor land of a large port is very common in each port along the sea, so that the anchor land is seriously insufficient. Particularly, in recent years, the port cargo throughput in China is high, more and more ships lean away from ports, so that the demand for anchoring in the port is greatly increased, and the contradiction between insufficient anchoring capacity and the demand is more and more prominent. Especially in severe weather conditions, various vessels are not anchored according to normal anchoring radii, are crowded in the anchoring ground and even anchored outside the anchoring ground, which create great safety hazards. The calculation of the anchoring capacity of the anchoring ground is necessary, and the calculation method can be used as a reference for the maximum anchoring ship number of the anchoring ground and can also provide scientific basis for reasonably planning the anchoring ground.
At present, the research on the anchoring capacity is not much, most of which is some empirical talk, and the method for calculating the anchoring capacity systematically theoretically is also little. The method is innovatively used for establishing a calculation model about anchoring capacity by combining a Monte Carlo algorithm on the basis of Matlab software. The Monte Carlo algorithm is widely applied to probability statistics research, is a quite mature algorithm, and is mainly a method for carrying out computer simulation by using random numbers.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a Monte Carlo simulation-based method for calculating the anchor land capacity, which can realize automatic calculation of the anchor land anchoring capacity, can be helpful for a management department to strengthen the macroscopic control of the total amount of ships entering and leaving a port, maintain good navigation order of the port, prevent excessive ships from anchoring at the anchor land and provide a theoretical basis for strengthening scientific management of anchoring ships, so as to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a method for calculating the anchor capacity based on Monte Carlo simulation includes the steps
A. Setting boundary conditions and randomly generating anchor bit data;
B. substituting the randomly generated data into the calculation;
C. judging whether the calculated data is available;
D. repeated sampling of zeta is carried out for several times to generate independent X values1,X2,X3......,XN；
E. Calculating to obtain an arithmetic mean value of the numerical values;
F. according to the theorem of majorities, as an estimate of x.
Preferably, a coordinate system is established according to the step A, the X axis corresponds to the length of the anchor ground, the Y axis corresponds to the width of the anchor ground, the unit is meter, the value of X is smaller than the length of the anchor ground, and the value of Y is smaller than the width of the anchor ground.
Preferably, the value of the value y of x is selected and substituted into a formula according to the step B to calculate the density of the anchor mooring vessels, wherein the density of the anchor mooring vessels refers to the number of anchor mooring vessels in a unit area of water at a certain moment, and reflects the density of the anchor mooring vessels in the anchor ground and the utilization condition of the anchor ground, and the density value of the anchor mooring vessels obtained by the marine traffic survey is the average value of the number of anchor mooring vessels in each unit area of water at the moment during the survey, and is usually expressed by the number of anchor mooring vessels per square sea (kilometer):
in the formula:
average moored vessel density (i.e./km)2)；
N is the total number of samples;
σρstandard deviation (i.e./km)2)
The anchor utilization rate is the total area of the water area occupied by the anchoring ship/the total area of the anchor land multiplied by 100 (%).
Preferably, said step C is carried out
a. Generating a coordinate system by programming, namely generating a pair of random numbers by a computer, wherein the X axis is the length of an anchorage zone, and the Y axis is the width of the anchorage zone;
b. generating the pair of random numbers, i.e. coordinates in one of the defined coordinate systems, populating the defined area with the set of numbers by determining whether the distance between any two coordinates that have been populated into the coordinate system is greater than or equal to twice the mooring radius as a criterion for whether the set of coordinates is available;
c. if the set of coordinates is available if the condition is satisfied, storing the set of coordinates in a matrix; if the set of coordinates does not satisfy the condition, the set of coordinates is deemed to be unavailable, and whether 100 such unavailable coordinates exist needs to be judged;
d. if 100 unusable coordinates have been generated, the operation stops.
Preferably, said step D
a. Establishing a simple and easy-to-realize probability statistical model aiming at the actual problem, so that the solution of the problem corresponds to the probability distribution of random variables in the model or some digital characteristics of the random variables;
b. according to the distribution of each random variable in the model, random numbers are generated on a computer, and the random numbers with enough quantity required by one simulation process are realized.
c. Designing and selecting a proper sampling method according to the characteristics of the probability model and the distribution characteristics of the random variables, and sampling each random variable;
d. carrying out simulation test according to the established model, calculating, solving the random solution of the problem, and generating independent X values X1,X2,X3......,XN；
e. The meter analyzes the simulation test results and gives an estimate of the problem and an estimate of its accuracy.
Preferably, said step E
The Monte Carlo method is based on X of random variable X1,X2,X3......,XNThe arithmetic mean of (a):
preferably, said approximation to the solution according to step F is known from the great-terse law, such as X1,X2,X3......,XNIndependently distributed and having a finite expected value (E (X) < ∞), then
I.e. the arithmetic mean of the random variables is
When N is sufficiently large, it converges to its expected value e (x) with a probability of 1.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the calculation method can realize automatic calculation of the anchoring capacity of the anchor ground, can be beneficial to reinforcing the macroscopic control of the total amount of ships entering and leaving the port by management departments, maintaining good navigation order of the port, preventing excessive ships from anchoring at the anchor ground and providing theoretical basis for reinforcing the scientific management of anchoring ships.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic structural view of a walking type moving frame according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the present invention provides a technical solution: a method for calculating the anchor capacity based on Monte Carlo simulation includes the steps
A. Setting boundary conditions and randomly generating anchor bit data;
B. substituting the randomly generated data into the calculation;
C. judging whether the calculated data is available;
D. repeated sampling of zeta is carried out for several times to generate independent X values1,X2,X3......,XN；
E. Calculating to obtain an arithmetic mean value of the numerical values;
F. according to the theorem of majorities, as an estimate of x.
And establishing a coordinate system, wherein the X axis corresponds to the length of the anchor ground, the Y axis corresponds to the width of the anchor ground, the unit is meter, the value of X is less than the length of the anchor ground, and the value of Y is less than the width of the anchor ground.
And selecting and substituting the value of the value y of x into a formula to calculate the density of the anchoring ships, wherein the density of the anchoring ships refers to the number of the anchoring ships in a certain instant unit area water area, and reflects the density degree of the anchoring ships in the anchoring area and the utilization condition of the anchoring area, the density value of the anchoring ships obtained by the maritime traffic survey is the average value of the number of the anchoring ships in each instant unit area water area during the survey, and is usually expressed by the number of the anchoring ships in each square sea (kilometer):
in the formula:
average moored vessel density (i.e./km)2)；
N is the total number of samples;
σρstandard deviation (i.e./km)2)
The anchor utilization rate is the total area of the water area occupied by the anchoring ship/the total area of the anchor land multiplied by 100 (%).
Generating a coordinate system by programming, namely an X axis is the length of an anchorage zone, a Y axis is the width of the anchorage zone, generating a pair of random numbers by a computer, namely the coordinates in the defined coordinate system, filling the group of numbers into a defined area, determining whether the distance between any two coordinates which are filled into the coordinate system is larger than or equal to twice the anchorage radius as the standard whether the group of coordinates is available, and storing the group of coordinates into a matrix if the group of coordinates meets the condition that the group of coordinates is available; if the set of coordinates does not satisfy the condition to be deemed unusable, it is necessary to determine whether there have been 100 such unusable coordinates, and if 100 unusable coordinates have been generated, the operation stops.
A simple and easy-to-realize probability statistic model is established for practical problems, the solution of the problem is corresponding to the probability distribution of random variables in the model or some digital characteristics thereof, random numbers are generated on a computer according to the distribution of each random variable in the model, a sufficient number of random numbers required by a simulation process are realized, generally, uniformly distributed random numbers are generated firstly, then random numbers obeying a certain distribution are generated, then a random simulation test is carried out, a proper sampling method is designed and selected according to the characteristics of the probability model and the distribution characteristics of the random variables, each random variable is sampled, a simulation test is carried out according to the established model, the random solution of the problem is calculated, and mutually independent X values are generated1,X2,X3......,XNThe score analyzes the simulation test results, giving an estimate of the problem and an estimate of its accuracy.
The Monte Carlo method is based on X of random variable X1,X2,X3......,XNThe arithmetic mean of (a):
as an approximation of the solution, it is known from the great-tertiarys law, such as X1,X2,X3......,XNIndependently distributed and having a finite expected value (E (X) < ∞), then
I.e. the arithmetic mean of the random variables is
When N is sufficiently large, it converges to its expected value e (x) with a probability of 1.
The calculation method can realize automatic calculation of the anchoring capacity of the anchor ground, can be beneficial to reinforcing the macroscopic control of the total amount of ships entering and leaving the port by management departments, maintaining good navigation order of the port, preventing excessive ships from anchoring at the anchor ground and providing theoretical basis for reinforcing the scientific management of anchoring ships.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (7)
1. A method for calculating the anchor capacity based on Monte Carlo simulation includes the steps
A. Setting boundary conditions and randomly generating anchor bit data;
B. substituting the randomly generated data into the calculation;
C. judging whether the calculated data is available;
D. repeated sampling of zeta is carried out for several times to generate independent X values1,X2,X3......,XN；
E. Calculating to obtain an arithmetic mean value of the numerical values;
F. according to the theorem of majorities, as an estimate of x.
2. The method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: and B, establishing a coordinate system according to the step A, wherein the X axis corresponds to the length of the anchor ground, the Y axis corresponds to the width of the anchor ground, the unit is meter, the value of X is smaller than the length of the anchor ground, and the value of Y is smaller than the width of the anchor ground.
3. The method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: and B, substituting the value of the value y of x into a formula according to the step B to calculate the density of the anchoring ships, wherein the density of the anchoring ships refers to the number of the anchoring ships in a certain instant unit area water region, and reflects the density degree of the anchoring ships in the anchoring ground and the utilization condition of the anchoring ground, and the density value of the anchoring ships obtained by the marine traffic survey is the average value of the number of the anchoring ships in each instant unit area water region during the survey period, and is usually expressed by the number of the anchoring ships in each square sea (kilometer):
in the formula:
average moored vessel density (i.e./km)2)；
N is the total number of samples;
σρ-standard deviation (One kilometer per2)
The anchor utilization rate is the total area of the water area occupied by the anchoring ship/the total area of the anchor land multiplied by 100 (%).
4. The method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: according to step C
a. Generating a coordinate system by programming, namely generating a pair of random numbers by a computer, wherein the X axis is the length of an anchorage zone, and the Y axis is the width of the anchorage zone;
b. generating the pair of random numbers, i.e. coordinates in one of the defined coordinate systems, populating the defined area with the set of numbers by determining whether the distance between any two coordinates that have been populated into the coordinate system is greater than or equal to twice the mooring radius as a criterion for whether the set of coordinates is available;
c. if the set of coordinates is available if the condition is satisfied, storing the set of coordinates in a matrix; if the set of coordinates does not satisfy the condition, the set of coordinates is deemed to be unavailable, and whether 100 such unavailable coordinates exist needs to be judged;
d. if 100 unusable coordinates have been generated, the operation stops.
5. The method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: said according to step D
a. Establishing a simple and easy-to-realize probability statistical model aiming at the actual problem, so that the solution of the problem corresponds to the probability distribution of random variables in the model or some digital characteristics of the random variables;
b. according to the distribution of each random variable in the model, random numbers are generated on a computer, and the random numbers with enough quantity required by one simulation process are realized.
c. Designing and selecting a proper sampling method according to the characteristics of the probability model and the distribution characteristics of the random variables, and sampling each random variable;
d. carrying out simulation test according to the established model, calculating, solving the random solution of the problem, and generating independent X values X1,X2,X3......,XN；
e. The meter analyzes the simulation test results and gives an estimate of the problem and an estimate of its accuracy.
6. The method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: said according to step E
The Monte Carlo method is based on X of random variable X1,X2,X3......,XNThe arithmetic mean of (a):
7. the method for computing the anchor space capacity based on the Monte Carlo simulation, according to claim 1, wherein: said approximation according to step F as a solution is known from the great-terse law, such as X1,X2,X3......,XNIndependently distributed and having a finite expected value (E (X) < ∞), then
I.e. the arithmetic mean of the random variables is
When N is sufficiently large, it converges to its expected value e (x) with a probability of 1.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112686944A (en) * | 2020-12-29 | 2021-04-20 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship anchoring area calculation method and device |
| CN116767461A (en) * | 2023-08-25 | 2023-09-19 | 太极计算机股份有限公司 | Ship anchoring behavior detection method and device and electronic equipment |
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2020
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112686944A (en) * | 2020-12-29 | 2021-04-20 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship anchoring area calculation method and device |
| CN112686944B (en) * | 2020-12-29 | 2023-05-23 | 武汉理工大学 | Ship anchoring area calculation method and device |
| CN116767461A (en) * | 2023-08-25 | 2023-09-19 | 太极计算机股份有限公司 | Ship anchoring behavior detection method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN116767461B (en) * | 2023-08-25 | 2023-12-22 | 太极计算机股份有限公司 | Ship anchoring behavior detection method and device and electronic equipment |
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