CN111599130A - Environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue - Google Patents
Environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue, which comprises a data storage module, a marine meteorological data acquisition module, a sea area risk assessment module, a course navigation risk assessment module, a rescue type risk assessment module and an early warning module; the data storage module is used for storing membership degree matrixes and weight coefficients of various risk factors of different types of rescue ships in different states; the marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for acquiring marine meteorological data, and the sea area risk assessment module is used for assessing sea area navigation risk levels of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in a departure area and a rescue area; the rescue type risk assessment module is used for assessing rescue type risk levels of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on a rescue navigation line; and the early warning module sends early warning information to the user. The invention can carry out multi-dimensional assessment and early warning on the rescue risk of the rescue ship.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ship early warning, in particular to an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue.
Background
The rescue ship is the main rescue force for carrying out rescue of marine emergency accidents, different types of rescue ships have different consideration factors in the aspects of design, construction and the like, the wind and wave resistance is greatly different from that of other cargo ships, passenger ships and the like, and the influence degree of marine meteorological environment factors such as wind, waves, visibility, flow and the like on the different types of ships is different.
The salvage ship has certain salvage risks, and except for the ship type, the salvage ship is also influenced by the following three aspects when a salvage task is carried out on the same ship: 1. rescue boats and ships departure region and arrive the rescue region, carry out the risk of sea area navigation, its main influence factor that causes danger is: wind speed, wave height, flow velocity and visibility; 2. the main risk factors that cause danger when a ship sails on the underway are: wind speed, wave height, flow velocity, visibility, wind and flow angles; 3. the risks brought by different types of rescue, the main types of rescue include man drowning, towing rescue and fire fighting.
When a marine rescue task is carried out based on the prior art, risk assessment for marine rescue is lacked, and accidents are easy to happen in the rescue process, so that the life safety of rescue personnel is endangered.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention provides an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue, which can carry out multi-dimensional risk assessment and early warning on rescue risks of rescue ships.
An embodiment of the invention provides an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue, which comprises a data storage module; the marine meteorological data acquisition module, the sea area risk assessment module, the airline navigation risk assessment module, the rescue type risk assessment module and the early warning module;
the data storage module is used for storing the membership degree matrix of each risk factor and the weight coefficient of each risk factor; the membership degree matrix of each risk factor is the probability that each risk factor causes different levels of risks to the rescue ship; the membership degree matrix and the weight coefficient of the corresponding risk factor of different types of rescue ships in different states are different;
the marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for acquiring marine meteorological data of a sea area navigation area and a route navigation area corresponding to the rescue ship; the sea area navigation area comprises a rescue ship starting area and a rescue area;
the sea area risk evaluation module is used for calculating the sea area navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in the sea area navigation area according to the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the line navigation risk evaluation module is used for calculating a line navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on a rescue line according to the marine meteorological data of the line navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the rescue type risk assessment module is used for calculating a rescue type risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of a rescue area, a membership degree matrix of a corresponding risk factor and a risk factor weight coefficient;
and the early warning module is used for sending early warning information to a user when any one of the sea area navigation risk level, the airline navigation risk level and the rescue type risk level exceeds a preset level threshold.
Further, each risk factor includes a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow velocity factor, a visibility factor, a wind side angle factor, and a flow side angle factor.
Further, the marine meteorological data of the sea area navigation area and the air route navigation area where the rescue ship is located are obtained, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
obtaining sea area wind speed, sea area wave height, sea area flow velocity and sea area visibility of the sea area navigation area through marine meteorological forecast data;
and acquiring the air route wind speed, the air route wave height, the air route flow speed, the air route visibility, the air route wind direction and the air route water flow direction of the air route navigation area through the marine meteorological forecast data.
Further, the sea area navigation risk level of the rescue ship when navigating in the sea area navigation area is calculated according to the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically comprises the following steps:
determining a membership matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership matrix of a visibility factor and a weight coefficient of the visibility factor when the rescue vessel is in a navigation state in a sea area according to the type of the rescue vessel;
constructing a first fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed, the sea area wave height, the sea area flow velocity, the sea area visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the first fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship is sailed in the sea area under the conditions of high wind speed in the sea area, high wave height in the sea area, flow velocity in the sea area and visibility in the sea area;
constructing a first weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the first fuzzy relation matrix and the first weight vector to obtain a sea area navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the sea area navigation risk level according to the sea area navigation risk evaluation vector.
Further, the method includes calculating a course navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on the rescue line according to the oceanographic data of the course navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically includes:
determining a membership degree matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership degree matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership degree matrix of a visibility factor, a membership degree matrix of a wind side angle factor, a weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow side angle factor and a weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor of the rescue vessel in an underway navigation state according to the type of the rescue vessel;
calculating a course wind bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course wind direction;
calculating a course current bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course current direction;
constructing a second fuzzy relation matrix according to the airline wind side angle, the airline traffic side angle, the airline wind speed, the airline wave height, the airline flow velocity, the airline visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor, the membership matrix of the visibility factor, the membership matrix of the wind side angle factor and the membership matrix of the traffic side angle factor; the second fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of different levels of risks caused when the rescue ship is subjected to line navigation under the line wind side angle, the line flow side angle, the line wind speed, the line wave height, the line flow speed and the line visibility;
constructing a second weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, the weight coefficient of the visibility factor, the weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor and the weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor;
and multiplying the second fuzzy relation matrix and the second weight vector to obtain an air route navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the air route navigation risk level according to the air route navigation risk evaluation vector.
Further, according to the type of the rescue ship, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of the rescue area, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor, and the risk factor weight coefficient, the rescue type risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship executes different rescue tasks is calculated, specifically:
determining a corresponding membership matrix of a wind speed factor, a corresponding weight coefficient of a wind speed factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a wave height factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor and a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship and the type of the rescue task;
constructing a third fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow velocity of the rescue area, the sea area visibility of the rescue area, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the third fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship executes rescue tasks under the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow speed of the rescue area and the sea area visibility of the rescue area;
constructing a third weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the third fuzzy relation matrix by the third weight vector to obtain a rescue type risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the rescue type risk grade according to the rescue type risk evaluation vector.
Further, the rescue task types comprise personnel falling into water, towing rescue and fire fighting.
By implementing the embodiment of the invention, the following beneficial effects are achieved:
the embodiment of the invention provides an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue, which comprises a data storage module, a data acquisition module and a data processing module, wherein the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data of a marine rescue; the marine meteorological data acquisition module, the sea area risk assessment module, the airline navigation risk assessment module, the rescue type risk assessment module and the early warning module; the data storage module is used for storing membership degree matrixes of various risk factors under different types of rescue ships in different states and weight coefficients of various risk factors; the marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for acquiring marine meteorological data; the sea area risk evaluation module is used for calculating sea area navigation risk levels of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in the departure area and the rescue area; the rescue type risk evaluation module is used for calculating the rescue type risk level when the rescue ship carries out a rescue task; the early warning module is used for sending early warning information to a user when any risk grade of the three risk grades exceeds a preset grade threshold value. The embodiment of the invention carries out multi-dimensional assessment and early warning on the rescue risk of the rescue ship through the three aspects, provides safety warning for the rescue personnel before the rescue task is executed, and ensures the life safety of the rescue personnel.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a system architecture diagram of an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1:
an embodiment of the invention provides an environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue, which comprises a data storage module; the marine meteorological data acquisition module, the sea area risk assessment module, the airline navigation risk assessment module, the rescue type risk assessment module and the early warning module;
the data storage module is used for storing the membership degree matrix of each risk factor and the weight coefficient of each risk factor; the membership degree matrix of each risk factor is the probability that each risk factor causes different levels of risks to the rescue ship; the membership degree matrix and the weight coefficient of the corresponding risk factor of different types of rescue ships in different states are different;
the marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for acquiring marine meteorological data of a sea area navigation area and a route navigation area corresponding to the rescue ship; the sea area navigation area comprises a rescue ship starting area and a rescue area;
the sea area risk evaluation module is used for calculating the sea area navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in the sea area navigation area according to the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the line navigation risk evaluation module is used for calculating a line navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on a rescue line according to the marine meteorological data of the line navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the rescue type risk assessment module is used for calculating a rescue type risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of a rescue area, a membership degree matrix of a corresponding risk factor and a risk factor weight coefficient;
and the early warning module is used for sending early warning information to a user when any one of the sea area navigation risk level, the airline navigation risk level and the rescue type risk level exceeds a preset level threshold.
The following description is made for each module:
the method comprises the following steps that firstly, a data storage module is used, wherein the data storage module mainly stores various risk factors corresponding to various types of rescue ships in different states, membership degree matrixes of the risk factors and weight coefficients of the risk factors;
the risk factor refers to a factor that affects the safety of the rescue at the time of the rescue. The risk factors involved in the present invention mainly include the following: the 6 factors of wind speed, wave height, flow speed, visibility, wind side angle and flow side angle are respectively corresponding to a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow speed factor, visibility factor, a wind side angle factor and a flow side angle factor.
The membership degree matrix of the risk factors is used for representing the probability of different levels of risks caused by the risk factors to the rescue ship in different states; the membership degree matrixes of the same risk factor are different under different states of different types of rescue ships, because the influence degrees of the same risk factor on the different types of rescue ships are different, and the influence degrees of the same risk factor on the same type of rescue ships under different states are also different; in the present invention, there are three main states of a rescue vessel: 1. sea area navigation state, 2, airline navigation state, 3, state for executing rescue task; risk factors corresponding to rescue ships of different types and different states may be different, and membership degree matrixes and weight coefficients of the risk factors are also different; in the present invention, the risk classes are divided into: high risk, higher risk, lower risk, low risk; the types of rescue vessels are classified according to their main engine power and speed, and preferably can be classified into the following four categories: the marine rescue ship comprises two types of marine rescue ships, wherein the power of the two types of main machines is 12000 kilowatts and 9000 kilowatts respectively, the maximum navigational speed is about 20 nautical miles per hour, and the navigational region is an infinite navigational area, a catamaran wave-piercing fast ship with the power of the main machines of about 5000 kilowatts, the maximum navigational speed of 30 nautical miles per hour and the navigational region of offshore navigational area, and a high-speed rescue ship with the power of the main machines of 1176 kilowatts, the maximum navigational speed of 35 nautical miles per hour and the navigational region of coastal navigational area. :
presetting corresponding risk factors, membership degree matrixes of the risk factors and weight coefficients of the risk factors aiming at different states of each type of rescue ship; for example, table 1, table 2, table 3, and table 4 respectively show membership degree matrices corresponding to risk factors (including wind speed factor, wave height factor, flow velocity factor, and visibility factor) of a certain type of rescue vessel in a navigation state of a sea area:
TABLE 1 membership matrix for wind speed factor of certain type of rescue vessel
| Wind speed (Typha wind) | High risk | Higher risk | Lower risk | Low risk |
| > 12 level | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 to 12 grades | 0.575 | 0.375 | 0.05 | 0 |
| 8-10 grade | 0.325 | 0.45 | 0.2 | 0.025 |
| 6 to 8 grades | 0.125 | 0.35 | 0.475 | 0.05 |
| <Grade 6 | 0.05 | 0.125 | 0.35 | 0.475 |
TABLE 2 membership matrix for certain rescue vessel wave height factor
| Effective wave height (m) | High risk | Higher risk | Lower risk | Low risk |
| ＞14 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 |
| 9～14 | 0.825 | 0.175 | 0 | 0 |
| 6～9 | 0.525 | 0.3 | 0.125 | 0.05 |
| 4～6 | 0.325 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.075 |
| ＜4 | 0.175 | 0.175 | 0.425 | 0.225 |
TABLE 3 membership matrix for certain type of rescue vessel visibility factors
| Visibility (Km) | High risk | Higher risk | Lower risk | Low risk |
| Difference (A)<0.5) | 0.75 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Relatively poor (0.5 to 2) | 0.45 | 0.225 | 0.3 | 0.025 |
| In general (2 to 5) | 0.3 | 0.225 | 0.375 | 0.1 |
| Preferably (5 to 10) | 0.075 | 0.2 | 0.325 | 0.4 |
| Good (> 10) | 0 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.6 |
TABLE 4 membership matrix for certain rescue vessel flow rate factors
| Flow velocity (m/s) | High risk | Higher risk | Lower risk | Low risk |
| ＞1.5 | 0.45 | 0.3 | 0.225 | 0.025 |
| 1.0～1.5 | 0.175 | 0.375 | 0.325 | 0.125 |
| 0.6～1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.525 | 0.175 |
| 0.2～0.6 | 0.025 | 0.075 | 0.475 | 0.425 |
| ＜0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.725 |
Because the influence degrees of the risk factors on the safety of the rescue ship are different, the weight coefficients of the risk factors are set in advance, and the influence degrees of the risk factors on the safety of the rescue ship are expressed through the weight coefficients of the risk factors. And storing the data in a database of the marine rescue environmental risk early warning system through a data storage module so as to be called by other modules.
For the oceanographic data acquisition module:
the marine meteorological data of the sea area navigation area and the air route navigation area where the rescue ship is located are obtained, and the marine meteorological data are specifically as follows:
obtaining sea area wind speed, sea area wave height, sea area flow velocity and sea area visibility of the sea area navigation area through marine meteorological forecast data;
and acquiring the air route wind speed, the air route wave height, the air route flow speed, the air route visibility, the air route wind direction and the air route water flow direction of the air route navigation area through the marine meteorological forecast data.
The marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for extracting the required marine meteorological data mainly through a meteorological marine element forecast result of a refined grid;
the method specifically comprises the following steps: marine meteorological data of a rescue ship starting area and a rescue area (namely a sea area navigation area) and marine meteorological data of a route navigation area corresponding to a rescue route;
when the rescue ship sails in the departure area and sails in the rescue area, the danger factors which mainly affect the safety of the rescue ship comprise: a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow velocity factor, a visibility factor; therefore, the marine meteorological data extracted in the rescue ship departure area and the rescue area comprise wind speed, wave height, flow speed and visibility; namely the wind speed in the sea area, the wave height in the sea area, the flow speed in the sea area and the visibility in the sea area;
after a rescue route is planned, when the rescue ship navigates along the rescue route, the risk factors which mainly affect the safety of the rescue ship comprise a wind side angle factor and a stream side angle factor besides a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow velocity factor and a visibility factor; therefore, the marine meteorological data extracted in the flight area of the flight line needs to include: wind speed, wave height, flow velocity, visibility, wind direction (for calculating wind side angle) and water flow direction (for calculating flow side angle);
for the sea area risk assessment module:
calculating the sea area navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in the sea area navigation area according to the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically comprising the following steps:
determining a membership matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership matrix of a visibility factor and a weight coefficient of the visibility factor when the rescue vessel is in a navigation state in a sea area according to the type of the rescue vessel;
constructing a first fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed, the sea area wave height, the sea area flow velocity, the sea area visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the first fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship is sailed in the sea area under the conditions of high wind speed in the sea area, high wave height in the sea area, flow velocity in the sea area and visibility in the sea area;
constructing a first weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the first fuzzy relation matrix and the first weight vector to obtain a sea area navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the sea area navigation risk level according to the sea area navigation risk evaluation vector.
The sea area risk evaluation module is mainly used for evaluating and calculating risks of the rescue ship in a departure area and a rescue area during navigation; the concrete mode is as follows;
firstly, extracting a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a corresponding risk factor of a rescue ship in a sea area sailing state from a data storage module according to the type of the rescue ship; because sea navigation is mainly influenced by wind speed, wave height, flow velocity and visibility, the navigation method only needs to extract the membership matrix and weight of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix and weight of the wave height factor, the membership matrix and weight of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix and weight of the visibility factor corresponding to the type of ship; the extracted matrices are assumed to be the matrices shown in tables 1-4 above, respectively;
then, according to the sea area wind speed, the sea area wave height, the sea area flow velocity and the sea area visibility acquired by the marine meteorological data acquisition module, combining the membership degree matrixes of the 4 risk factors to construct a first fuzzy relation matrix; suppose that: if the extracted sea area has the wind speed of 9 grades, the wave height of 7 meters, the visibility of 20km and the flow speed of 0.8m/s, a first fuzzy relation matrix constructed by combining the tables 1-4 is as follows:
r represents a first fuzzy relation matrix, the matrix represents a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow velocity factor and a visibility factor under the conditions that the wind speed is 9 grades, the wave height is 7 meters, the visibility is 20km and the flow velocity is 0.8m/s, and the four risk factors each cause probability values of high risk, low risk and low risk to the rescue vessel;
suppose that the weighting factor of the wind speed factor is 0.272, the weighting factor of the wave height factor is 0.346, the weighting factor of the flow speed factor is 0.197, and the weighting factor of the visibility factor is 0.185; then the constructed first weight vector is W ═ 0.272,0.346,0.197,0.185 ]; w is the first weight vector.
Multiplying the first fuzzy relation matrix by the first weight vector to obtain a sea area navigation risk evaluation vector B ═ W ═ R ═ 0.289,0.293,0.244, 0.174;
finally, calculating the sea area navigation risk level according to the sea area navigation risk evaluation vector, wherein if the main elements (the elements with the largest element values) in the risk evaluation vector are more than or equal to 1.6 times of the secondary elements (the elements with the second largest element values), the advantages of the main elements are obvious, and the risk level is determined by adopting a maximum value method; if the element value of the main element in the risk evaluation vector is less than 1.6 times of the element value of the secondary element, calculating a risk index by adopting a weighted summation method according to a preset weight value, and determining a risk grade; the grading criteria for each risk class are: high risk (risk index >6, weight 7 for weighted sum calculation), high risk (risk index 4-6, weight 5 for weighted sum calculation), low risk (risk index 2-4, weight 3 for weighted sum calculation), low risk (risk index <2, weight 1 for weighted sum calculation).
For example, in the above example, the sea voyage risk evaluation vector obtained by the method is B ═ 0.289,0.293,0.244, 0.174; that is, the high risk corresponds to an element value of 0.289, the higher risk corresponds to an element value of 0.293, the low risk corresponds to an element value of 0.244, and the lower risk corresponds to an element value of 0.174; wherein the higher risk is a major element with an element value of 0.293 and the higher risk is a minor element with an element value of 0.289; 0.293 is not more than 1.6 times of 0.289, so that the risk level is determined after calculating the risk index by a weighted summation method, and a specific calculation formula of the sea navigation risk index is as follows:
7 × 0.289+5 × 0.293+3 × 0.244+0.174 × 1 ═ 4.394, 4.394 between 4-6, and therefore belongs to a higher risk category, i.e. the sea voyage risk category is a higher risk category;
if the obtained sea area navigation risk evaluation vector is B ═ 0.270,0.487,0.126 and 0.117; wherein the primary element has an element value of 0.487 and the secondary element has an element value of 0.270; 0.487 exceeds 1.6 times 0.270, so the risk level is determined by the maximum method. The sea region sailing risk level is a higher risk level because the main elements represent the probability of causing higher risk in the vector;
for the airline navigation risk assessment module:
calculating the ship route navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on the rescue ship navigation line according to the oceanographic data of the ship route navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically comprising the following steps:
determining a membership degree matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership degree matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership degree matrix of a visibility factor, a membership degree matrix of a wind side angle factor, a weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow side angle factor and a weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor of the rescue vessel in an underway navigation state according to the type of the rescue vessel;
calculating a course wind bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course wind direction;
calculating a course current bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course current direction;
constructing a second fuzzy relation matrix according to the airline wind side angle, the airline traffic side angle, the airline wind speed, the airline wave height, the airline flow velocity, the airline visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor, the membership matrix of the visibility factor, the membership matrix of the wind side angle factor and the membership matrix of the traffic side angle factor; the second fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of different levels of risks caused when the rescue ship is subjected to line navigation under the line wind side angle, the line flow side angle, the line wind speed, the line wave height, the line flow speed and the line visibility;
constructing a second weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, the weight coefficient of the visibility factor, the weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor and the weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor;
and multiplying the second fuzzy relation matrix and the second weight vector to obtain an air route navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the air route navigation risk level according to the air route navigation risk evaluation vector.
The line navigation risk evaluation module is used for evaluating and calculating the risk of the rescue ship on the line (excluding the area where the rescue ship departs and the rescue area) of the rescue line; specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
firstly, extracting a membership degree matrix and a weight coefficient of a corresponding risk factor of a rescue ship in an underway navigation state from a data storage module according to the type of the rescue ship; the rescue ship is influenced by the wind side angle and the stream side angle besides the wind speed, the wave height, the flow speed and the visibility when sailing on the rescue navigation line; therefore, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a wind speed factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a wave height factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a flow velocity factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a visibility factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a wind side angle factor and a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a flow side angle factor corresponding to the ship of the type need to be extracted; the structural forms of the membership degree matrix of the wind angle factor and the membership degree matrix weight coefficient of the flow angle factor are the same as those listed in the above tables 1 to 4, and will not be described herein.
Secondly, obtaining the air speed, wave height, flow speed and visibility of the air route, the air route wind direction and the air route water flow direction of the air route according to the marine meteorological data; firstly, calculating an air outlet bulwark angle, namely the air outlet bulwark angle of the air route according to the wind direction of the air route, and calculating an outlet bulwark angle, namely the air outlet bulwark angle of the air route according to the water flow direction of the air route; combining the membership degree matrixes of the 6 risk factors to construct a second fuzzy relation matrix; (the specific construction mode is similar to that in the sea area risk assessment module, and the difference is only that two more membership degree matrixes of risk factors are added, so that the details are not repeated herein);
then, a second weight vector is constructed according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, the weight coefficient of the visibility factor, the weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor and the weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor (the specific construction mode is similar to that in the sea area risk assessment module, only the weight coefficients of the two risk factors are added, and the description is omitted);
multiplying the second fuzzy relation matrix by the second weight vector to obtain a course navigation risk evaluation vector;
and finally, calculating the navigation risk grade of the air route according to the navigation risk evaluation vector of the air route. The specific calculation method also adopts a maximum value method or a weighted summation method (the two methods are specifically described in the description of the sea area risk assessment module, and are not described again here).
For the rescue type risk assessment module:
according to the type of the rescue ship, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of the rescue area, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factors and the risk factor weight coefficient, the rescue type risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship executes different rescue tasks is calculated, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
determining a corresponding membership matrix of a wind speed factor, a corresponding weight coefficient of a wind speed factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a wave height factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor and a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship and the type of the rescue task;
constructing a third fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow velocity of the rescue area, the sea area visibility of the rescue area, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the third fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship executes rescue tasks under the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow speed of the rescue area and the sea area visibility of the rescue area;
constructing a third weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the third fuzzy relation matrix by the third weight vector to obtain a rescue type risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the rescue type risk grade according to the rescue type risk evaluation vector.
The rescue type risk evaluation module is used for evaluating and calculating risks of the rescue ship when different types of rescue tasks are carried out; preferably, types of rescue in the present invention include, but are not limited to: people fall into water, drag rescue and fire fighting.
The specific evaluation calculation method is as follows:
firstly, according to the type of a rescue ship and the type of a rescue task, extracting a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a corresponding risk factor when the rescue ship executes a certain type of rescue task from a data storage module; when the rescue ship carries out different rescue tasks, the membership degree matrix and the weight coefficient of each risk factor are different; it is affected by wind speed, wave height, flow velocity and visibility when it executes rescue tasks; therefore, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a wind speed factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a wave height factor, a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a flow velocity factor and a membership matrix and a weight coefficient of a visibility factor corresponding to the type of ship need to be extracted.
Secondly, acquiring the wind speed, wave height, flow speed and visibility of a rescue area according to a marine meteorological data acquisition module, and constructing a third fuzzy relation matrix by combining the membership degree matrixes of the 4 risk factors; (the specific construction mode is similar to that in the sea area risk assessment module and is not described again here);
then, a third weight vector is constructed according to the weight coefficients of the 4 risk factors (the specific construction mode is similar to that in the sea area risk assessment module and is not described again)
Multiplying the third fuzzy relation matrix by a third weight vector to obtain a rescue type risk evaluation vector;
and finally, calculating the navigation risk level of the air route according to the rescue type risk evaluation vector. The specific calculation method also adopts a maximum value method or a weighted summation method (the two methods are specifically described in the description of the sea area risk assessment module, and are not described again here).
The early warning module is mainly used for sending out early warning, and specifically, when any one of the sea area navigation risk level, the airline navigation risk level and the rescue type risk level exceeds a preset level threshold (the preset level threshold may be a low risk), sending early warning information to a user; the early warning information can be the risk level of any risk exceeding a preset level threshold; for example, assuming the calculated sea voyage risk level is high risk; the navigation risk level of the air route is low risk; the rescue type risk level is a higher risk; then, the content of the warning message may be text message "sea area navigation risk level is high risk, rescue type risk level is high risk, please note" at this time.
By implementing the embodiment of the invention, the rescue risks of different types of rescue ships can be evaluated and early warned in a multi-dimensional manner from three aspects, so that safety warning is provided for rescuers before rescue tasks are executed, and the life safety of the rescuers is guaranteed.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (7)
1. An environmental risk early warning system for marine aid, comprising: a data storage module; the marine meteorological data acquisition module, the sea area risk assessment module, the airline navigation risk assessment module, the rescue type risk assessment module and the early warning module;
the data storage module is used for storing the membership degree matrix of each risk factor and the weight coefficient of each risk factor; the membership degree matrix of each risk factor is the probability that each risk factor causes different levels of risks to the rescue ship; the membership degree matrix and the weight coefficient of the corresponding risk factor of different types of rescue ships in different states are different;
the marine meteorological data acquisition module is used for acquiring marine meteorological data of a sea area navigation area and a route navigation area corresponding to the rescue ship; the sea area navigation area comprises a rescue ship starting area and a rescue area;
the sea area risk evaluation module is used for calculating the sea area navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates in the sea area navigation area according to the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the line navigation risk evaluation module is used for calculating a line navigation risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship navigates on a rescue line according to the marine meteorological data of the line navigation area, the type of the rescue ship, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor and the weight coefficient of the risk factor;
the rescue type risk assessment module is used for calculating a rescue type risk level of the rescue ship when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of a rescue area, a membership degree matrix of a corresponding risk factor and a risk factor weight coefficient;
and the early warning module is used for sending early warning information to a user when any one of the sea area navigation risk level, the airline navigation risk level and the rescue type risk level exceeds a preset level threshold.
2. The environmental risk early warning system of salvage as claimed in claim 1, wherein said risk factors include a wind speed factor, a wave height factor, a flow velocity factor, a visibility factor, a wind side angle factor and a current side angle factor.
3. The environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue of claim 2, wherein the obtaining of the oceanographic data of the sea area navigation area and the airline navigation area where the rescue vessel is located is specifically:
obtaining sea area wind speed, sea area wave height, sea area flow velocity and sea area visibility of the sea area navigation area through marine meteorological forecast data;
and acquiring the air route wind speed, the air route wave height, the air route flow speed, the air route visibility, the air route wind direction and the air route water flow direction of the air route navigation area through the marine meteorological forecast data.
4. The environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue of claim 3, wherein the sea voyage risk level of the rescue vessel during voyage in the sea voyage area is calculated according to the marine meteorological data of the sea voyage area, the type of the rescue vessel, the membership matrix of the corresponding risk factor, and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically includes:
determining a membership matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership matrix of a visibility factor and a weight coefficient of the visibility factor when the rescue vessel is in a navigation state in a sea area according to the type of the rescue vessel;
constructing a first fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed, the sea area wave height, the sea area flow velocity, the sea area visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the first fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship is sailed in the sea area under the conditions of high wind speed in the sea area, high wave height in the sea area, flow velocity in the sea area and visibility in the sea area;
constructing a first weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the first fuzzy relation matrix and the first weight vector to obtain a sea area navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the sea area navigation risk level according to the sea area navigation risk evaluation vector.
5. The environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue of claim 3, wherein the airline travel risk level of the rescue vessel when navigating on the rescue line is calculated according to the marine meteorological data of the airline travel area, the type of the rescue vessel, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factor, and the weight coefficient of the risk factor, and specifically:
determining a membership degree matrix of a corresponding wind speed factor, a weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, a membership degree matrix of a wave height factor, a weight coefficient of the wave height factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow velocity factor, a weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, a membership degree matrix of a visibility factor, a membership degree matrix of a wind side angle factor, a weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor, a membership degree matrix of a flow side angle factor and a weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor of the rescue vessel in an underway navigation state according to the type of the rescue vessel;
calculating a course wind bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course wind direction;
calculating a course current bulwark angle of the rescue ship when the rescue ship sails on the course according to the course current direction;
constructing a second fuzzy relation matrix according to the airline wind side angle, the airline traffic side angle, the airline wind speed, the airline wave height, the airline flow velocity, the airline visibility, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor, the membership matrix of the visibility factor, the membership matrix of the wind side angle factor and the membership matrix of the traffic side angle factor; the second fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of different levels of risks caused when the rescue ship is subjected to line navigation under the line wind side angle, the line flow side angle, the line wind speed, the line wave height, the line flow speed and the line visibility;
constructing a second weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor, the weight coefficient of the visibility factor, the weight coefficient of the wind side angle factor and the weight coefficient of the flow side angle factor;
and multiplying the second fuzzy relation matrix and the second weight vector to obtain an air route navigation risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the air route navigation risk level according to the air route navigation risk evaluation vector.
6. The environmental risk early warning system for marine rescue of claim 3, wherein the rescue type risk level of the rescue vessel when the rescue vessel executes different rescue tasks is calculated according to the type of the rescue vessel, the type of the rescue task, the marine meteorological data of the rescue area, the membership degree matrix of the corresponding risk factors, and the risk factor weight coefficient, specifically:
determining a corresponding membership matrix of a wind speed factor, a corresponding weight coefficient of a wind speed factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a wave height factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a flow velocity factor, a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor and a corresponding membership matrix of a visibility factor when the rescue ship executes a rescue task according to the type of the rescue ship and the type of the rescue task;
constructing a third fuzzy relation matrix according to the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow velocity of the rescue area, the sea area visibility of the rescue area, the membership matrix of the wind speed factor, the membership matrix of the wave height factor, the membership matrix of the flow velocity factor and the membership matrix of the visibility factor; the third fuzzy relation matrix is used for representing the probability of risks in different levels when the rescue ship executes rescue tasks under the sea area wind speed of the rescue area, the sea area wave height of the rescue area, the sea area flow speed of the rescue area and the sea area visibility of the rescue area;
constructing a third weight vector according to the weight coefficient of the wind speed factor, the weight coefficient of the wave height factor, the weight coefficient of the flow velocity factor and the weight coefficient of the visibility factor;
and multiplying the third fuzzy relation matrix by the third weight vector to obtain a rescue type risk evaluation vector, and then calculating the rescue type risk grade according to the rescue type risk evaluation vector.
7. An environmental risk pre-warning system for marine rescue of claim 1, wherein the rescue mission types include man overboard, towing rescue, and fire fighting.
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