CN111598406A - Quantitative evaluation method for block instability risk of high and steep slope - Google Patents
Quantitative evaluation method for block instability risk of high and steep slope Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A quantitative assessment method for the instability risk of a block body on a high and steep slope comprises the following steps: s1, numbering each unstable body on the high and steep slope in sequence; s2, analyzing and calculating the stability coefficient, the volume scale, the relative height, the influence object and the contact frequency characteristic of each block; s3, establishing a risk assessment factor weight coefficient ai and a mark assigning standard according to engineering characteristics, and assigning xi to the risk assessment factor by combining the block characteristic value calculated in the step S2; s4, a risk value f (x) ═ Σ (ai × xi) of each risk evaluation factor, that is, a sum of products of the weight coefficients ai and the factor assigning xi of each risk evaluation factor is calculated, and the unstable body destabilization risk is ranked according to the risk value. The method is simple and is particularly suitable for blocks with a large number; comprehensively considering a plurality of factors, and objectively evaluating the block instability risk; the risk management and control of being convenient for can effectively reduce engineering safety risk.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of slope engineering prevention and control, in particular to a quantitative assessment method for the instability risk of a block body of a high and steep slope.
Background
The water energy resource of the southwest high mountain canyon region of China is rich, but the geological environment is fragile, the earthquake intensity is high, and the rock mass unloading is strong. With the shift of hydropower engineering in China to southwest, the side slope with hundreds of meters can be encountered frequently, so that more dangerous blocks are arranged on the side slope, high-level collapse and falling are easy to occur, and the safety of construction personnel, equipment and buildings below is threatened greatly. The accidents of collapse and fall of dangerous rocks on the side slope occur for many times in China, which not only causes great casualties, but also causes great economic loss.
The high and steep slope blocks are numerous in quantity and dispersed in position, the block treatment difficulty is large, the construction period is long, interference often exists with main engineering construction, the risk problem in the construction period is prominent, and key management and control objects and construction arrangement need to be determined according to risk levels. At present, the block instability risk assessment methods mainly comprise two methods: one is to adopt the block stability coefficient to evaluate the block instability risk, neglect the block volume, relative height, influence object, contact frequency and other relevant factors, and can not objectively evaluate the block instability risk; the other method is to adopt a hierarchical analysis method to evaluate the block instability risk, decompose the decision problem into different hierarchical structures, then use a method for solving the matrix eigenvector to obtain the priority weight, and finally weight and obtain the final weight of each scheme to the total target.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention provides a quantitative assessment method for the instability risk of a block body of a high and steep slope, which is mainly suitable for the instability risk assessment of the block body of the high and steep slope and provides a reference for determining key management and control objects and construction arrangement.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a quantitative assessment method for the instability risk of a block body on a high and steep slope comprises the following steps:
s1, numbering each unstable body on the high and steep slope in sequence;
s2, analyzing and calculating the stability coefficient, the volume scale, the relative height, the influence object and the contact frequency characteristic of each block;
s3, establishing a risk assessment factor weight coefficient ai and a mark assigning standard according to engineering characteristics, and assigning xi to the risk assessment factor by combining the block characteristic value calculated in the step S2;
s4, a risk value f (x) ═ Σ (ai × xi) of each risk evaluation factor, that is, a sum of products of the weight coefficients ai and the factor assigning xi of each risk evaluation factor is calculated, and the unstable body destabilization risk is ranked according to the risk value.
Further, the risk assessment factors described in step S3 include the occurrence probability a, the accident influence degree B, the influence object importance C, and the contact frequency D.
Further, the sum of the weighting coefficients ai of the risk assessment factors is 1, the weighting coefficients ai of the factors are determined according to the influence degree of the factors on the instability risk, and the larger the influence on the instability risk is, the larger the weighting coefficients ai of the factors are.
Furthermore, according to the influence degree of the risk evaluation factors on the risk, the assigned scores xi of the risk evaluation factors are divided into 4 grades which are respectively 0.75 & lt xi & lt 1, 0.5 & lt xi & lt 0.75, 0.25 & lt xi & lt 0.5 and 0 & lt xi & lt 0.25.
Further, the unstable body instability risk is divided into three grades according to the risk value: f is more than 0.75 and less than or equal to 1, belonging to high risk; f is more than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.75, belonging to medium risk; f is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.5, and belongs to low risk.
The quantitative evaluation method for the instability risk of the block body on the high and steep slope has the following outstanding advantages:
(1) can comprehensively consider various factors and objectively evaluate the block instability risk
The method can comprehensively consider factors such as the block stability coefficient, the block volume, the relative height, the influence object, the contact frequency and the like, can objectively evaluate the instability risk of the block, and solves the problems that the instability risk of the block is evaluated by adopting the block stability coefficient, the relevant factors such as the block volume, the relative height, the influence object, the contact frequency and the like are ignored, and the instability risk of the block cannot be objectively evaluated.
(2) Simple method, especially suitable for mass blocks
After the characteristics of the block stability coefficient, the block volume, the relative height, the influence object, the contact frequency and the like are obtained, the block instability risk grade can be evaluated only by the summation calculation of the product of the simple risk factor judgment score, the weight coefficient and the factor score, and after the risk value is obtained, the method is particularly suitable for carrying out instability risk grading on a large number of blocks, and the problems that the calculation process is complex and the quantity of the evaluated blocks is limited by adopting an analytic hierarchy process are solved.
(3) Is convenient for risk management and control, and can effectively reduce the engineering safety risk
The method can evaluate the instability risk level of all blocks on the side slope, and clearly defines key control objects and construction arrangement according to the danger level, the high-risk blocks are preferentially arranged for construction, the middle-risk blocks are slightly slowly arranged for construction, and the low-risk blocks are preferentially arranged for construction, so that the control blindness is reduced, and the engineering safety risk can be effectively reduced.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the quantitative evaluation method for the instability risk of a block body on a high and steep slope.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in detail below with reference to the figures and specific embodiments. The present embodiment is implemented on the premise of the technical solution of the present invention, and a detailed implementation manner and a specific operation process are given, but the scope of the present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.
A quantitative assessment method for the instability risk of a block body on a high and steep slope comprises the following steps:
and S1, numbering the unstable bodies on the high and steep slopes in sequence.
And S2, analyzing and calculating the stability coefficient, the volume scale, the relative height, the influence object and the contact frequency characteristics of each block.
By using the block geometric characteristics, the geographic information and the physical mechanical parameters provided by the geology major, the volume, the relative height and the stability coefficient of the block can be obtained, and the instability influence object and the contact frequency of the block can be determined through field investigation and research.
And S3, establishing a risk assessment factor weight coefficient ai and a score standard according to engineering characteristics, and assigning a score xi to the risk assessment factor by combining the block characteristic value calculated in the step S2.
The risk assessment factors comprise four risk factors of occurrence probability A, accident influence degree B, influence object importance C and contact frequency D: the block has the advantages that firstly, the probability A is generated, the lower the safety coefficient of the block is, the higher the instability generation probability is, and the more serious the security threat to the lower part is; secondly, the accident influence degree B is increased, the larger the volume and the relative height of the block body are, the larger the influence degree of the block body in the accident is, and the more serious the safety threat to the lower part is; influence the importance C of the object, the greater the number of people or property value influenced by the block, the more important the unstable influence object is, and the more serious the security threat to the lower part is; and fourthly, the contact frequency degree D is higher, the higher the contact frequency of the block body with the personnel or property below is, the higher the probability of loss is, and the more serious the security threat to the below is.
And determining factor weight coefficients ai according to the influence degree of each factor on the instability risk, wherein the larger the influence on the instability risk is, the larger the factor weight coefficients ai are, and the sum of the factor weight coefficients ai is 1. According to the influence degree of the factors on the risks, dividing the factor assigning standard xi into 4 grades which are respectively more than 0.75 and less than or equal to 1 of xi, more than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.75 of xi, more than 0.25 and less than or equal to 0.5 of xi and more than 0 and less than or equal to 0.25 of xi.
Assigning the risk assessment factors of the blocks respectively: obtaining an assigned value x1 of the accident occurrence probability A according to the stability coefficient of the block; obtaining an assigned value x2 of the accident influence degree B according to the product of the block volume and the relative height; obtaining an assigned value x3 of the importance of the influence object according to the value of people or property influenced by the block instability; and obtaining an assigned value x4 of the contact frequency D according to the contact frequency of the block and the personnel or the property.
The weights and scoring criteria for each risk assessment factor are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 Risk assessment factor weight and score standard table
S4, calculating a risk value f (x) ═ Σ (ai × xi) of each risk factor, that is, the sum of products of the weight coefficients ai and the factor assignments xi of each risk factor, and classifying the unstable body destabilization risk into three levels according to the risk values: f is more than 0.75 and less than or equal to 1, belonging to high risk; f is more than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.75, belonging to medium risk; f is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.5, and belongs to low risk.
A high slope at an outlet of a flood discharging tunnel of a certain hydropower station is divided into a high-position natural slope and a lower engineering slope, and the high-position natural slope is distributed at a height of more than 1030 m-1090 m and mainly is a rocky steep slope; the lower engineering side slope comprises a flood discharge tunnel outlet side slope and a tail water (diversion) tunnel outlet side slope. The stability problem of the high-position natural slope above the outlet opening line of the flood discharge tunnel is mainly the problem of blocks, and 82 blocks are found in total, wherein the height is 1000-10000 m316, 100-1000 m352, less than 100m314 of (2).
Considering the actual progress condition of the engineering, the block body of the high-position natural side slope at the upper part of the flood discharge tunnel inlet and outlet and the engineering side slope at the lower part need to be constructed synchronously, and once the upper block body is unstable, the safety of the lower engineering side slope and the safety of construction personnel and equipment of the building can be threatened greatly. In order to reduce the safety risk of the engineering construction period to the maximum extent, the risk evaluation is carried out on the blocks which are not treated in the high-position natural side slope of the flood discharge tunnel inlet and outlet, the method aims to analyze the possible harm of the blocks which are not treated during the construction period of the lower engineering side slope, and provides reference for formulating the block treatment construction sequence and program according to the principle of 'light weight and emergency relief' according to the risk estimation result, for example, the blocks with large instability risk are treated preferentially, and the like.
The 82 block risk assessment results were: 22 high-risk blocks, 44 medium-risk blocks and 16 low-risk blocks, wherein the low-risk blocks are mainly blocks with higher stability coefficients and smaller square quantities and are positioned at the outer edge of the side slope. The risk evaluation of the block at the high-position natural side slope part at the outlet of the flood discharge tunnel is shown in the table 2.
In order to reduce the engineering risk to the maximum extent, the construction is arranged according to the risk level of the blocks in a grading mode, the construction is arranged with high risk level in priority, the construction is arranged with medium risk slightly in a grading mode, and the construction is arranged with low risk in a chance mode. At present, the side slope at the outlet of the flood discharge tunnel is completely excavated, the plunge pool structure at the outlet of the flood discharge tunnel is completely poured, and the method effectively ensures the safety of the engineering construction period.
Table 2 block risk evaluation table for high-level natural side slope part of flood discharge tunnel outlet
Details not described in this specification are within the skill of the art that are well known to those skilled in the art.
Claims (5)
1. A quantitative assessment method for the risk of instability of a block body on a high and steep slope is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, numbering each unstable body on the high and steep slope in sequence;
s2, analyzing and calculating the stability coefficient, the volume scale, the relative height, the influence object and the contact frequency characteristic of each block;
s3, establishing a risk assessment factor weight coefficient ai and a mark assigning standard according to engineering characteristics, and assigning xi to the risk assessment factor by combining the block characteristic value calculated in the step S2;
s4, a risk value f (x) ═ Σ (ai × xi) of each risk evaluation factor, that is, a sum of products of the weight coefficients ai and the factor assigning xi of each risk evaluation factor is calculated, and the unstable body destabilization risk is ranked according to the risk value.
2. The quantitative assessment method for the risk of instability of a block body on a high and steep slope according to claim 1, characterized in that: the risk assessment factors described in step S3 include the occurrence probability a, the accident influence degree B, the influence object importance C, and the contact frequency D.
3. The quantitative assessment method for the risk of instability of a block body on a high and steep slope according to claim 1, characterized in that: the sum of the weight coefficients ai of the risk assessment factors is 1, the factor weight coefficients ai are determined according to the influence degree of each factor on the instability risk, and the larger the influence on the instability risk is, the larger the factor weight coefficient ai is.
4. The quantitative assessment method for the risk of instability of a block body on a high and steep slope according to claim 1, characterized in that: according to the influence degree of the risk evaluation factors on the risk, dividing the assigned scores xi of the risk evaluation factors into 4 grades which are respectively 0.75 & lt xi & lt 1 & gt, 0.5 & lt xi & lt 0.75 & lt, 0.25 & lt xi & lt 0.5 & lt, and 0 & lt xi & lt 0.25 & lt.
5. The quantitative assessment method for the risk of instability of a block body on a high and steep slope according to claim 1, characterized in that: the unstable body instability risk is divided into three grades according to the risk value: f is more than 0.75 and less than or equal to 1, belonging to high risk; f is more than 0.5 and less than or equal to 0.75, belonging to medium risk; f is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 0.5, and belongs to low risk.
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