CN111553525A - Power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision - Google Patents

Power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision Download PDF

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CN111553525A
CN111553525A CN202010332885.0A CN202010332885A CN111553525A CN 111553525 A CN111553525 A CN 111553525A CN 202010332885 A CN202010332885 A CN 202010332885A CN 111553525 A CN111553525 A CN 111553525A
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徐超
李冰洁
葛毅
史静
刘国静
李琥
陈琛
胡国伟
牛文娟
牛东晓
耿世平
王思羽
陈梦
程晨
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North China Electric Power University
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
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Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision. And establishing a construction strategy combination comprehensive benefit evaluation model, performing evaluation screening on each combination scheme after the optimal strategy coordination combination of each voltage grade is performed, and obtaining the optimal one or more power grid construction strategy combinations to realize the maximization of the power grid investment benefit. On one hand, the investment cost of each investment project of the power grid can be effectively controlled, the investment decision selection of power grid enterprises is facilitated, and the use efficiency of investment funds is improved. And on the other hand, the overall economic and social benefits of the power grid enterprise are greatly improved.

Description

Power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power grid enterprise investment strategy optimization, and particularly relates to a power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision.
Background
The current power system reform is fiercely developing, and the power grid company faces strong market competition, so that the profitability of project investment can be more concerned in the operation process to ensure the overall profit level of the company. And the rising of the prices of the current equipment materials, energy and the like also promotes the related expenses of the equipment materials, manpower, energy and the like needed in the power transmission and distribution project, so that the investment of the power transmission and distribution project greatly rises. In recent years, power grid companies pay more attention to capital investment and project income of power transmission and distribution projects, and select proper project schemes for investment, so that the overall investment management level and comprehensive income of a power grid are improved. Therefore, a power grid investment strategy optimization method which combines, evaluates, screens and optimizes investment construction strategies of different voltage levels under the condition of considering power transmission and distribution price supervision is important.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention provides a power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision, which comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining power grid construction projects every year according to power grid planning;
step 2: the construction strategy in the supervision period is solved by considering the allowable investment constraint under the power transmission and distribution price target;
and step 3: evaluating and screening different power grid construction strategies of each voltage class in the whole supervision period by using an improved analytic hierarchy process and a TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to known values) method, and screening out the superior construction strategy of each voltage class in each year;
and 4, step 4: and on the basis of the construction strategy evaluation of each voltage class, selecting the investment strategy with the best comprehensive benefit within three years of each supervision period through comprehensive evaluation of the investment benefits.
The permissible investment constraints are:
Figure BDA0002465603910000021
wherein F is the total investment, FDTo lower limit of total investment requirement, FpTo the upper limit of the total investment requirement, FD500kVIs an investment requirement at 500kV, FD220kVIs the investment requirement at 220kV, FD110kVFor investment requirements at 110kV, F500kVIs at a voltage level of 500kVTotal investment of newly-built substation, line and cable, F220kVIs the total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 220kV, F110kVThe total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage level of 110 kV.
Indexes for evaluating the power grid construction strategy comprise technical evaluation indexes and social evaluation indexes. The technical evaluation indexes comprise a capacity-load ratio mean value, a standby coefficient mean value and a construction capacity fluctuation degree; the social evaluation indexes comprise the mean value of the unit investment newly increased power supply capacity, the degree of unit investment conservation and the mean value of the unit investment newly increased line channel floor area.
The indexes of the comprehensive evaluation of the investment benefits comprise social benefit indexes, economic benefit indexes and power grid harmony indexes. The social benefit indexes comprise the influence degree of the environmental quality, the number of available employment, the public satisfaction degree and the sustainable development level; the economic benefit indexes comprise cost profit rate, unit investment power increase and supply quantity average value, unit investment loss reduction and power consumption, power grid investment income ratio, transformation capacitance load ratio average value, line average load rate and unit investment profit rate average value; the power grid coordination indexes comprise the number ratio mean value of 110kV-500kV transformer substations, the number ratio mean value of 110kV-220kV transformer substations, the total capacity ratio mean value of 110kV-500kV transformer substations and the total capacity ratio mean value of 110kV-220kV transformer substations.
In step 4, assuming that a certain power grid A has n construction schemes and another power grid B has m construction schemes, the construction strategy combinations of the two power grids have n × m, the performances of the n × m power grid construction strategy combinations in investment benefit evaluation are calculated in a weighted mode according to indexes in the power grid investment comprehensive benefit evaluation, and the comprehensive evaluation result in the benefit evaluation is recorded as ci,jI ═ 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, …, m; the final comprehensive evaluation score calculation formula of the construction strategy combination is as follows:
dij=α×di,A+β×dj,B+cij
wherein, i is 1,2, …, n, j is 1,2, …, m, α and β are weight coefficients of the evaluation results of the construction strategy of the A power grid and the B power grid respectively, and α is β is 0.5 in value according to di,jFrom high to highAnd (4) sorting is performed, and a plurality of superior power grid construction strategy combination schemes are screened out.
And key indexes in the comprehensive benefit evaluation indexes of power grid investment can be selected to simplify calculation.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
in the power transmission and distribution price supervision period, the investment strategies of power transmission and distribution projects of all voltage levels are evaluated and screened, the investment strategies with the better voltage levels are selected, the screened schemes under all voltage levels are coordinated and combined, and the optimal power grid construction strategy combination or multiple power grid construction strategy combinations are selected through evaluation and screening. On one hand, the investment cost of each investment project of the power grid can be effectively controlled, the investment decision selection of power grid enterprises is facilitated, and the use efficiency of investment funds is improved. And on the other hand, the overall economic and social benefits of the power grid enterprise are greatly improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of a grid investment strategy optimization method based on consideration of transmission and distribution power price supervision according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a power grid construction strategy evaluation index system;
FIG. 3 is a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the power grid investment strategy;
FIG. 4 is a key index of power grid investment strategy evaluation;
FIG. 5 is a grid investment strategy evaluation key index weight descending graph;
fig. 6 is a comprehensive evaluation result ranking diagram of the grey correlation degrees of the investment strategies in 2017 and 2019 in the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
The invention discloses a power grid investment strategy optimization method based on transmission and distribution power price supervision, which comprises the following steps as shown in figure 1:
(1) determining power grid construction projects every year according to power grid planning;
(2) considering the allowable investment scale limit under the power transmission and distribution price target, and solving the construction strategy in the supervision period;
(3) evaluating and screening different power grid construction strategies of a certain voltage class in the whole supervision period, namely, regarding the construction strategy of a single voltage class, which construction strategy scheme is better in the whole construction period so as to screen out a better construction strategy of each year under the single voltage class;
(4) on the basis of the evaluation of the single voltage level construction strategy, the investment strategy with the best comprehensive benefit within three years of each supervision period is selected through comprehensive evaluation of the investment benefits.
1. Power grid investment strategy composition in power transmission and distribution price supervision period
And (4) considering the constraint of medium-increase capacity-to-load ratio of urban network load, and solving the total capacity constraint area of the power transformation equipment of each voltage class according to the 500kV, 220kV and 110kV network power supply load planning values in the power transmission and distribution price supervision period of the current round. And (4) obtaining the single-seat transformation capacity of each voltage grade in each year according to the historical data of the total transformation capacity and the number of transformation seats of each voltage grade, and further predicting the single-seat transformation capacity in 19-25 years. Solving all possible construction strategies of each voltage class according to the total capacity constraint area of the power transformation equipment of each voltage class and the predicted value of the single-seat power transformation capacity, solving the total investment aiming at all investment strategies, and optimizing according to the investment requirement and the investment capacity under the corresponding voltage class:
(1) total investment at 500 kV:
F500kV=FS50kV+FL500kV+FC500kV(1)
wherein, F500kVIs the total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 500kV, FS500kVInvestment for newly built 500kV substation, FL500kVLine investment for 500kV voltage class, FC500kVIs the cable investment under the voltage class of 500 kV.
The investment for a 500kV newly-built transformer substation is as follows:
FS500kV=fS500kV×λ500kV(2)
wherein f isS500KVFor the expense of a 500kV single-seat substation, lambda500KVThe number of the transformer substations is 500 kV.
For 500kV overhead line investment:
FL500kV=fL500kV×ΔL500kV=fL500kV×(Li-Li-1) (3)
Figure BDA0002465603910000051
in the formula (f)L500kVThe cost of newly building an overhead line with unit length under the voltage level of 500kV, Delta L500kVFor the length of newly added transmission line in the ith year, LiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakFor the number of new substation seats in the kth year,i500kVis the station line ratio under the voltage class of 500kV in the ith year.
For 500kV cable investment:
FC500kV=fC500kV×ΔC500kV=fC500kV×(Ci-Ci-1) (5)
Figure BDA0002465603910000052
in the formula (f)C500KVThe cost, Delta C, of newly building a unit length cable under the voltage class of 500kV500kVFor newly added cable length in the ith year, CiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakNumber of new substation seats for the k year ηi500kVIs the station-to-cable ratio of the ith year.
(2)220kV total investment:
F220kV=FS220kV+FL220kV+FC220kV(7)
wherein, F220kVIs the total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 220kV, FS220kVInvestment for a new substation of 220kV, FL220kVIs the line investment under the voltage class of 220kV, FC220kVIs the cable investment under the voltage class of 220 kV.
For the investment of a 220kV newly-built transformer substation, the method comprises the following steps:
FS220kV=fS220kV×λ220kV(8)
wherein f isS220kVThe cost of a 220kV single-seat transformer substation is lambda220kVThe number of the transformer substations of 220kV is increased.
For 220kV overhead line investment:
FL220kV=fL220kV×ΔL220kV=fL220kV×(Li-Li-1) (9)
Figure BDA0002465603910000061
in the formula (f)L220kVThe cost of newly building an overhead line with unit length under the voltage class of 220kV, Delta L220kVFor the length of newly added transmission line in the ith year, LiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakFor the number of new substation seats in the kth year,i220kVis the station-to-line ratio of the ith year.
For 220kV cable investment:
FC220kV=fC220kV×ΔC220kV=fC220kV×(Ci-Ci-1) (11)
Figure BDA0002465603910000062
in the formula (f)C220kVThe cost, Delta C, of newly building a unit length cable under the voltage class of 220kV220kVFor newly added cable length in the ith year, CiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakNumber of new substation seats for the k year ηi500kVIs the station-to-cable ratio of the ith year.
(3)110kV total investment:
F110kV=FS110kV+FL110kV+FC110kV(13)
wherein, F110kVThe total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 110kV, FS110kVIs 11Investment in a 0kV New substation, FL110kVIs the line investment under 110kV voltage class, FC110kVIs the cable investment under the voltage class of 110 kV.
For the investment of a 110kV newly-built transformer substation, the method comprises the following steps:
FS110kV=fS110kV×λ110kV(14)
wherein f isS110kVFor the expense of a 110kV single-seat substation, lambda110kVThe number of the transformer substations is 110 kV.
For 110kV overhead line investment:
FL110kV=fL110kV×ΔL110kV=fL110kV×(Li-Li-1) (15)
Figure BDA0002465603910000071
in the formula (f)L110kVThe cost of newly building an overhead line with unit length under the voltage class of 110kV, Delta L110kVFor the length of newly added transmission line in the ith year, LiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakFor the number of new substation seats in the kth year,i110KVis the station-to-line ratio of the ith year.
For 110kV cable investment:
FC110kV=fC110kV×ΔC110kV=fC110kV×(Ci-Ci-1) (17)
Figure BDA0002465603910000072
in the formula (f)C110kVThe cost, Delta C, of newly building a unit length cable under the voltage class of 110kV110kVFor newly added cable length in the ith year, CiIs the ith year line length. Lambda [ alpha ]0Number of transformer stations in the initial year, lambdakNumber of new substation seats for the k year ηi110kVIs the station-to-cable ratio of the ith year.
2. Power grid investment strategy constraint condition
For the construction strategies of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV, the investment scale should meet 3 constraints:
(1) investment constraints for various voltage classes
For the investment strategy of each voltage class, the planning requirement of the voltage class should be met, so the lower limit is the investment requirement of the voltage class. The planning load can be obtained according to the power grid planning scheme, and the upper limit and the lower limit of the total power transformation capacity can be obtained through conversion of the capacity-load ratio coefficient. The constraint expression is as follows:
FD500kV≤F500kV(19)
FD220kV≤F220kV(20)
FD110kV≤F110kV(21)
in the formula:
FD500kVis an investment requirement at 500kV, FD220kVIs the investment requirement at 220kV, FD110kVIs the investment requirement under 110 kV.
(2) Lower limit of total investment constraint
Summarizing the investment strategies under each voltage grade, wherein the obtained total investment F should meet the lower limit F of the total investment requirementDNamely:
F=F500kV+F220kV+F110kV(22)
F≥FD(23)
(3) upper bound of total investment
The investment scale limit under the power transmission and distribution price reformation environment is researched, and obviously, after a new round of power system reformation, the provincial main administration door checks and approves the investment plan scale of the power grid and sets the investment plan scale as the total investment upper limit constraint FpAnd then:
F≤FP(24)
in conclusion, the investment model of the power grid construction strategy is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000081
3. investment strategy optimization
3.1 construction strategy evaluation
The construction strategy evaluation index system is shown in fig. 2. The index system is used for judging which construction strategies can achieve better effects on the aspects of related technical requirements and social evaluation in the construction period of the power transmission and distribution price supervision period aiming at a certain voltage class (110kV, 220kV and 500kV), and the method is mainly discussed from the aspects of technical evaluation and social influence evaluation.
(1) Technical evaluation index
1) Mean value of capacity to load ratio
The mean value of the capacity-load ratio refers to the mean value of the capacity-load ratio of a power grid of a certain voltage class in the whole power grid construction period every year. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000091
in the formula, riAnd the capacity-load ratio of the power grid of a certain voltage class in the ith year is shown.
2) Mean value of spare coefficients
The spare coefficient is the capacity expansion ratio, which reflects the extensible capacity of the power grid in development and construction. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000092
in the formula, gammaiIs the spare factor of the ith year.
3) Degree of fluctuation of construction ability
Because the development strategies of power grid development selection are different, the power grid construction capacities under different development strategies are different. The construction capacity fluctuation degree is used for measuring the deviation degree between the annual power grid construction capacity and the average construction level during the development and construction of the power grid, and the standard deviation of the number of construction seats is adopted for characterization. The standard deviation is the square root of the squared sum of the deviations from the mean, and can reflect the degree of dispersion of the relevant data sets. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000093
in the formula, λiRepresenting the number of substation seats constructed each year,
Figure BDA0002465603910000094
and the average number of the transformer substation seats constructed every year in the development and construction period of the power grid is represented.
(2) Social evaluation index
1) Mean value of unit investment newly added power supply capacity
The mean value of the newly added power supply capacity of unit investment refers to the average level of power supply capacity increase caused by investment on power grid construction every year in the whole power grid construction period. The calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula,. DELTA.CiDenotes the increase of the capacitance in the i-th year, CiThe power transformation capacity of the ith year.
2) Mean value of land area saved per unit investment
The average value of the land area saved by unit investment is the average level of the land area saved by the extension means in the unit power grid construction investment every year in the power grid construction period. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000102
in the formula, d represents the occupied area required by newly building a transformer substation, and for a 220kV power grid, d is 6000m2(ii) a For a 110kV power grid, d is 4000m2. T represents the average capacity of a newly-built substation, CikThe enlargement capacity of the i-th year.
3) Mean value of occupied area of newly added line channel in unit investment
The mean value of the occupied area of the channels of the newly-increased lines in unit investment refers to the mean level of the occupied area generated by newly-increased corresponding lines in the unit power grid construction investment every year in the power grid construction period. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000103
wherein W is the channel width, LiIs the line length of the i-th year.
3.2 investment strategy comprehensive benefit evaluation
For comprehensive benefit evaluation of a power grid investment strategy, the method can be mainly divided into three aspects: the first is social benefit, the second is economic benefit, and the third is grid coordination, as shown in fig. 3.
(1) Index of social benefit
1) Degree of influence of environmental quality
The environmental impact comprises indexes such as noise, electromagnetic environment, radio interference and the like, the weight of the indexes respectively accounts for 40%, 30% and 30%, and the indexes are qualitative indexes related to the occupied area of a power grid investment scheme and the number of developed vegetation.
2) Can provide employment number
The quantitative index, namely the employment opportunities provided by each investment scheme, can reflect the social benefits of the project.
3) Degree of public satisfaction
Qualitative indexes including three aspects of the satisfaction degree of residents, the satisfaction degree of power utilization enterprises and the satisfaction degree of governments can directly reflect the evaluation of residents on the construction and transformation effects of the power grid; the satisfaction degree of various enterprise users of the power grid on the power grid and the satisfaction degree of government departments on the overall effect of the power grid investment in a local area, including the influence on the social economy of the area, are combined to form qualitative indexes.
4) Level of sustainable development
The investment of the power grid infrastructure project must be adapted to the needs of national economy development and the needs of the coordinated development of the economic society and the natural environment, and the power grid construction not only needs to achieve the economic growth with sustainable significance, but also needs to realize the sustainable development of the environment. Project development strategies must guarantee time continuity, taking into account both overall and local benefits. The method is related to the life cycle of the construction scheme, reflects the subsequent economic and social influence degree of the scheme, and is a qualitative index.
(2) Economic benefit index
1) Profit margin for cost
The cost-expense profit margin is the ratio of the total profit to the total cost and expense of the enterprise over a period of time. The calculation formula is as follows:
PC=P/C×100% (32)
in the formula: pCFor the cost profit margin, P is the total profit amount and C is the total cost.
2) Mean value of increased power per unit investment
The unit investment increment power quantity directly represents the relationship between the input end and the output end, and the benefit condition of increment assets is reflected. The calculation method is as follows:
ΔqI=ΔQ/I (33)
ΔQ=Qi-Qi-1(34)
ΔqI′=∑ΔqI/k (35)
in the formula,. DELTA.qIIncreasing power supply for unit investment, delta Q is newly increased power supply for the year, I is total investment for the year, QiFor supplying power of this year, Qi-1For last year power supply, Δ qI' is the mean value of the unit investment increment power, and k is the year. In order to simplify the model, the selling electricity amount data is adopted as the supply electricity amount data.
3) Unit investment loss reducing electric quantity
The unit investment loss reduction electric quantity refers to line loss reduced by optimizing a power grid structure through investment, and additional benefits caused by the loss reduction electric quantity are mainly reflected. The calculation formula is as follows:
ΔpI=QC(Pi-1-Pi)/Ii-1(36)
ΔpIreduced loss of electricity, Q, for unit investmentCFor the annual power supply, Pi-1Line loss rate in the last year, PiIs the line loss rate of the year, Ii-1Total investment for last year
4) Investment to income ratio of power grid
The investment income ratio of the power grid is an index which is closely related to investment. By analyzing and comparing the historical trends of the indexes horizontally in the same period, the current investment benefit condition can be known, and investment in the next step can be realized. The calculation formula is as follows:
c=IC/I (37)
wherein c is the investment income ratio, IC is the investment income, and I is the total investment of the year. The investment income refers to the pure income of electricity sale after deducting the electricity purchase cost, and the calculation method comprises the following steps:
R=P1Q1-P0Q0=(P1-P0)Q1-P0(Q0-Q1) (38)
Q0=Q1/1-γ (39)
wherein, P0,P1Respectively represent the purchase and sale price of electricity, (P)1-P0)Q1For selling electricity and receiving income, P0(Q0-Q1) Is the line loss.
5) Variable capacitance to load ratio mean value
The capacity-load ratio is the ratio of the total capacity of the power transformation equipment in a certain power supply area to the maximum load (network supply load) of the power supply area, and indicates the relation between the installation capacity of the area, the station or the transformer and the highest actual operation capacity, and reflects the capacity reserve condition.
6) Average load factor of line
The average load rate of the line reflects the overall load condition of the line, the power supply department improves the load rate, the power supply efficiency of the power transmission and distribution line, the transformer and the like can be fully exerted, and the electric energy loss in the power supply network is reduced. If the index is too high, a newly-built transformer substation or a newly-built main transformer is considered to solve the problem, and the investment strategy needs to be readjusted.
7) Average value of unit investment yield
In order to establish an evaluation mechanism for the rationality of the investment of the electric network in the power transmission and distribution price reformation, the unit investment yield is adopted as an evaluation index of the electric network investment in the investment strategy index. The average of the return rate of investment is the sum of the return rate of investment per year
Figure BDA0002465603910000131
In the formula (I); i.e. ir(t) is the unit investment yield of the t year, R (i) is the permitted yield of the i year, in (i) is the newly added investment of the power grid of the i year
(3) Grid coordination index
1) Number ratio mean value of 110kV-500kV transformer substation
The average value of the number ratio of the 110kV-500kV transformer substations represents the number of the 110kV transformer substations of each 500kV transformer substation in the construction period of the power grid, and reflects the coordination of the 110kV power grid and the 500kV power grid on the number of the transformer substations. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000132
in the formula, λi500Represents the number of 500kV transformer substation seats in the ith year, lambdai110Representing the number of 110kV substation seats in the ith year.
2) Number ratio mean value of 110kV-220kV transformer substation
The average value of the number ratio of the 110kV-220kV transformer substations represents the number of the average 110kV transformer substations of each 220kV transformer substation in the construction period of the power grid, and reflects the harmony of the 110kV power grid and the 220kV power grid in the number of the transformer substations. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000141
in the formula, λi220Represents the number of 220kV transformer substation seats in the ith year, lambdai110Representing the number of 110kV substation seats in the ith year.
3) Average value of total capacity ratio of 110kV-500kV power transformation
The average value of the ratio of the transformation capacity of 110kV to 500kV represents the matching degree of the transformation capacity of the 500kV transformer substation and the transformation capacity of the 110kV transformer substation in the construction period of the power grid, and reflects the coordination of the 500kV power grid and the 110kV power grid on the transformation capacity. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000142
4) average value of total capacity ratio of 110kV-220kV power transformation
The average value of the ratio of the transformation capacity of 110kV to 220kV represents the matching degree of the transformation capacity of the 220kV transformer substation and the transformation capacity of the 110kV transformer substation in the construction period of the power grid, and reflects the coordination of the 220kV power grid and the 110kV power grid on the transformation capacity. The calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002465603910000143
by establishing the power grid investment comprehensive benefit evaluation index system, the combined construction of the power grid construction strategy model can be comprehensively evaluated from the aspects of economic benefit, social benefit, coordination and the like.
3.3 comprehensive evaluation step and strategy optimization method
After the power grid construction strategy comprehensive evaluation system is established, relevant comprehensive evaluation needs to be carried out on the power grid construction. The comprehensive evaluation method of the power grid construction strategy comprises the following steps:
(1) the construction strategies with different power transmission and distribution price supervision periods in the current round at various voltage levels (110kV, 220kV and 500kV) are used as objects to be evaluated and screened, and the construction strategies are evaluated. The method comprises the following steps of respectively evaluating different power grid construction schemes under 500kV, 220kV and 110kV voltage levels from both technical and social evaluation aspects: in the construction strategy evaluation index system, technical evaluation and social evaluation are primary indexes, and all indexes under each primary index are secondary indexes (the secondary indexes under the technical evaluation comprise a capacity-load ratio mean value, a standby coefficient mean value and a construction capacity fluctuation degree, and the secondary indexes under the social evaluation comprise a unit investment newly increased power supply capacity mean value, a unit investment saved land area mean value and a unit investment newly increased line channel floor area mean value. the construction strategy schemes of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV power grids are evaluated by using an improved analytic hierarchy process and a TOPSIS method, and the first three construction strategy schemes which are superior in the 500kV, 220kV power grids and the 110kV power grids are respectively screened out according to comprehensive evaluation results.
(2) Will each beThe method comprises the steps of combining the construction strategies of voltage grades to form different power grid investment strategies, judging which investment strategy combinations have better comprehensive benefits, assuming that a certain power grid A has n construction schemes and another power grid B has m construction schemes, then the construction strategy combinations of the two power grids have n × m, referring to indexes in power grid investment comprehensive benefit evaluation, screening key indexes to simplify calculation, screening a plurality of key indexes, calculating the performance of the n × m power grid construction strategy combinations in investment benefit evaluation in a weighting mode, and recording the comprehensive evaluation result in benefit evaluation as ci,jI ═ 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, …, m. The final comprehensive evaluation score calculation formula of the construction strategy combination is as follows:
dij=α×di,A+β×dj,B+cij(45)
wherein, i is 1,2, …, n, j is 1,2, …, m, α and β are weight coefficients of the evaluation results of the construction strategy of the A power grid and the B power grid respectively, and α is β is 0.5 in value according to di,jThe sizes of the grid-connected power grid are sorted from high to low, and a plurality of superior power grid construction strategy combination schemes are screened out.
For example, if there are seven power grid construction schemes for the 110kV power grid and seven power grid construction schemes for the 220kV power grid, there are forty-nine power grid construction strategy combinations. By referring to indexes in the comprehensive benefit evaluation of power grid investment, key indexes can be screened to simplify calculation. The performance of the nineteen power grid construction strategy combinations in investment benefit evaluation is calculated in a weighting mode by screening out a plurality of key indexes, and the comprehensive evaluation result in the benefit evaluation is recorded as ci,jI is 1,2, …, 7; j is 1,2, …, 7. The final comprehensive evaluation score calculation formula of the construction strategy combination is as follows:
dij=α×di,110+β×dj,220+cij
wherein, i is 1,2, …,7, j is 1,2, …,7, α and β are weight coefficients of the evaluation results of the construction strategies of the 110kV power grid and the 220kV power grid respectively, and α is β is 0.5 in value according to di,jThe sizes of the grid-connected power grid are sorted from high to low, and a plurality of superior power grid construction strategy combination schemes are screened out.
The process of the present invention is illustrated in the following examples.
First, model index prediction is performed. Taking the investment construction of a power grid in a certain area as an example:
(1) the unit cost index of each voltage grade in 2017-2025 predicted according to historical data is shown in table 1:
meter 12017-2025 years time each voltage class cost level
Figure BDA0002465603910000161
Figure BDA0002465603910000171
(2) Load planning for voltage class networks
According to the power grid load planning value, the power grid load planning values of each year under the voltage grades of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV are obtained as shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 network supply load planning values for each voltage class (unit: MW)
Figure BDA0002465603910000172
(3) Capacity prediction for single substation
According to the total capacity and the number of the transformer substation seats of each historical voltage class, the historical value of the capacity of each single transformer substation in the past thirteen years is obtained, and the prediction is carried out by applying a grey prediction theory, and the result is shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 Capacity prediction for individual substation for each voltage class (Unit: thousands of volt-ampere/base)
Figure BDA0002465603910000173
Figure BDA0002465603910000181
(4) Station-to-line ratio and station-to-cable ratio prediction
The station-line ratio and the station-cable ratio in each year of 2019-2025 are obtained by performing grey prediction on the station-line ratio and the station-cable ratio historical data under each voltage class, as shown in table 4:
TABLE 4 station-to-line ratio and station-to-cable ratio prediction results under each voltage class
Figure BDA0002465603910000182
Secondly, solving the investment strategy model. According to the capacity ratio upper and lower limit constraints under the voltage classes of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV and the planned value of the network supply load of each voltage class, the upper and lower limits of the total power transformation capacity under each voltage class can be obtained, as shown in table 5:
TABLE 5 Total Capacity Interval of Voltage classes under moderate growth constraint in urban and rural loads
Figure BDA0002465603910000183
Figure BDA0002465603910000191
According to the predicted value of the capacity of the single transformer substation under each voltage class and the constraint interval of the total power transformation capacity, the upper limit and the lower limit of the number of transformer substations to be built under the voltage classes of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV can be obtained. As shown in table 6. Taking 2020 as an example, the upper limit of the number of 500kV transformer substation seats is 11, and the lower limit is 9; the upper limit of the number of 220kV transformer substation seats is 44, and the lower limit is 40; the upper limit of the number of the 110kV transformer substation seats is 67, and the lower limit is 63.
Table 62019-jar construction strategy for each voltage level in 2025
Figure BDA0002465603910000192
Taking 2019 as an example, considering factors such as the power transmission and distribution price and the power selling amount in the period, according to the power grid investment scale limit of 5852434.96 ten thousand yuan, the predicted value of the partial voltage level investment demand is shown in table 7:
TABLE 72019 year New load forecast
Figure BDA0002465603910000201
According to the station-line ratio and the station-cable ratio of 2019 and the predicted values of unit cost of the transformer substation, the cables and the overhead lines, the following can be obtained:
the investment under 500kV voltage level under each construction strategy is as follows:
F500kV=33318.186x+[(416.5958/0.005273/10000)]x
the investment under the voltage class of 220kV under each construction strategy is as follows:
F220kV=12147.608y+[(75.505/0.01758)/10000]y+[(3161.493/0.50969)/10000]y
the investment under 110kV voltage class under each construction strategy is as follows:
F110kV=4488.123z+[(116.107/0.05894)/10000]z+[(700/0.50969)/10000]z
the total investment of each construction strategy is as follows:
F=F500kV+F220kV+F110kV=33326.0865x+12149.2266y+4488.4573z
wherein: x is the number of 500kV transformer substation seats; y is the number of 220kV transformer substation seats; z is the number of 110kV substation seats.
The construction strategy constraint conditions are as follows:
1067122≤F≤5852434.95
F500KV≥303190
F220KV≥506124
F110KV≥257808
the investment strategy after constraint screening is shown in the following table 8:
TABLE 82019 year investment strategy
Figure BDA0002465603910000202
Figure BDA0002465603910000211
Figure BDA0002465603910000221
Thirdly, carrying out investment strategy combination under the supervision of the transmission and distribution power price. The construction strategies of 500kV, 220kV and 110kV power grids in three periods of 2017-. In the first period, the construction data of 2017 and 2018 are known, so that the construction strategy of the period 2017-2019 needs to be constructed according to different construction schemes of 2019, and further the construction strategy of the period is comprehensively evaluated correspondingly; the other two periods (2020 + 2022 and 2023 + 2025) are respectively and correspondingly evaluated comprehensively according to the model planning result.
Taking 500kV as an example, 17 years of new construction of a 500kV substation 16 site and 18 years of new construction of a 500kV substation 14 site can be obtained according to historical data, and by establishing the comprehensive evaluation index system of the aforementioned "single voltage class construction strategy evaluation", partial power grid construction strategy scenario schemes of 500kV power grids in 17-19 years, 20-22 years, and 23-25 years and corresponding index values are shown in table 9:
table 9500 kV part construction strategy
Figure BDA0002465603910000222
The strategy scores obtained for each evaluation index according to the above calculation method are shown in table 10:
strategy index score for construction of 3 supervision periods under table 10500 kV
Figure BDA0002465603910000231
Screening the results in the table, and selecting the first three strategies with the highest scores as the optimal strategies to obtain:
first three optimal construction strategies (unit: one) in supervision period under table 11500 kV
Figure BDA0002465603910000232
By the same method, the optimal first three construction strategies in the power grid construction strategies of three different periods (2017 and 2019, 2020 and 2022, and 2023 to 2025) of the 220kV and 110kV power grids can be obtained:
table 12220 kV 2017-2019 optimal three construction strategies
Figure BDA0002465603910000241
And finally, carrying out investment strategy optimization under the supervision of the transmission and distribution power price.
1. Key index screening
Because the constructed index system relates to a plurality of aspects and can not be compared and selected in a quantitative mode, the membership degree of the membership index to the evaluation object is determined by adopting an expert scoring method, wherein the grading method is V ═ important, general, unimportant and unimportant }. For each index, 5 experts vote one per person to determine the importance degree of the index, for example, for the '110 kV-220kV transformation total capacity ratio average value', the experts can score {1,2,2,2,0} to describe the importance degree of the index.
And after the expert marks the scores, calculating the index score matrix by using the membership function to obtain a fuzzy relation matrix R.
Figure BDA0002465603910000251
The weight vector W of the factors is,
W=[0.6,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.0]T
synthesizing W and R to obtain a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector B:
Figure BDA0002465603910000252
the threshold value is set to 0.45, based on expert and practical experience.
From the measurement and calculation results of the fuzzy threshold method, the influence degree of each factor on different investment strategies is different. Wherein, 9 index thresholds, such as power grid investment income ratio, cost expense profit margin, unit investment increased power supply quantity, power grid investment income ratio, transformation capacitance load ratio, sustainable development level and the like, are more than 0.45 and are selected as key evaluation indexes. The investment strategy key evaluation index system is shown in figure 4.
2. Index weight determination
And an entropy weight method is adopted to construct a judgment matrix, each index of the investment strategy comprehensive evaluation is weighted, the subjectivity of the index weight is eliminated, and the data information order is more favorably embodied. The process of weighting the index by the entropy weight method is as follows:
(1) constructing a standardized decision matrix
Assuming that the total number of power grid investment strategies for comprehensive evaluation is m and the total number of evaluation indexes is n, a standardized judgment matrix X constructed by standardized index data*The following were used:
Figure BDA0002465603910000261
(2) calculating the information entropy of each index
Figure BDA0002465603910000262
Figure BDA0002465603910000263
Figure BDA0002465603910000264
(3) Index empowerment
Figure BDA0002465603910000265
Wherein w is more than or equal to 0j≤1,
Figure BDA0002465603910000266
According to the evaluation and screening of the construction strategies of each voltage class (500kV, 220kV and 110kV), the first three optimal construction strategies of each voltage class are obtained, so that 27 possible optimal combined investment strategies of each voltage class of the power grid are obtained during the construction of the power grid. Taking the following supervision period (2020-2022 year) as an example, the key evaluation index of the power grid investment strategy is calculated, as shown in table 13:
calculation of key evaluation index of 132020-
Figure BDA0002465603910000271
Figure BDA0002465603910000281
Figure BDA0002465603910000291
After entropy weight assignment is performed on each investment strategy index score original matrix in the power grid construction period, the determination of the weight of the investment evaluation key index is shown in table 14 and fig. 5:
TABLE 14 investment strategy evaluation Key index weight values
Figure BDA0002465603910000292
As shown in fig. 5, the weights of the key indicators based on the entropy weight method from high to low are: 110/500 the average value of the number ratio of the transformer substations is 0.156; 110/500 the average value of the total capacity ratio of the transformer substation is 0.156; the average value of the unit investment increment power is 0.113; 110/220 the average value of the number ratio of the transformer substations is 0.105; 110/220 the average value of the total capacity ratio of the transformer substation is 0.105; adjusting risks by an industrial structure, wherein the weight is 0.101; the weight of the unit newly added investment profit rate mean value is 0.1; sustainable development level, weight 0.085; the variable capacitance to carrier ratio mean value and the weight are 0.08.
3. Investment strategy optimization results
And calculating the association degree of the evaluation objects and sequencing the association degree by combining the index weights and utilizing a multi-level gray association comprehensive evaluation method. The initial matrix is scored according to the obtained investment strategy indexes, and the dimensionless processing is performed, and the results are shown in table 15:
table 152020-
Figure BDA0002465603910000301
Figure BDA0002465603910000311
Figure BDA0002465603910000321
Through the calculation of the grey correlation coefficient, the correlation coefficient is obtained as shown in the following table 16:
table 162020-2022-year-each investment strategy gray correlation coefficient
Figure BDA0002465603910000322
Figure BDA0002465603910000331
Figure BDA0002465603910000341
Figure BDA0002465603910000351
The evaluation results of each strategy obtained by calculating the gray correlation degree are shown in table 17 below and fig. 6.
Table 172020-2022 grey comprehensive association degree of investment strategies
Figure BDA0002465603910000352
Figure BDA0002465603910000361
The higher the grey correlation, the greater the benefit of the strategy. In summary, policy 7 has the greatest gray correlation, value 0.0845. Thus, policy 7 is most advantageous, followed by policy 27 and policy 24. Strategies 7, 27, 24 are specifically shown in table 18 below:
TABLE 182020 first three optimal investment strategies in 2022
Figure BDA0002465603910000362
The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily made by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are also within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (8)

1. A power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining power grid construction projects every year according to power grid planning;
step 2: the construction strategy in the supervision period is solved by considering the allowable investment constraint under the power transmission and distribution price target;
and step 3: evaluating and screening different power grid construction strategies of each voltage class in the whole supervision period by using an improved analytic hierarchy process and a TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to known values) method, and screening out the superior construction strategy of each voltage class in each year;
and 4, step 4: and on the basis of the construction strategy evaluation of each voltage class, selecting the investment strategy with the best comprehensive benefit within three years of each supervision period through comprehensive evaluation of the investment benefits.
2. The grid investment strategy optimization method considering transmission and distribution power price supervision as claimed in claim 1, wherein the allowable investment constraints are:
Figure FDA0002465603900000011
wherein F is the total investment, FDTo lower limit of total investment requirement, FpTo the upper limit of the total investment requirement, FD500kVIs an investment requirement at 500kV, FD220kVIs the investment requirement at 220kV, FD110kVFor investment requirements at 110kV, F500kVIs the total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 500kV, F220kVIs the total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage class of 220kV, F110kVThe total investment of newly-built transformer substations, lines and cables under the voltage level of 110 kV.
3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the evaluation indexes of the grid construction strategy include technical evaluation indexes and social evaluation indexes.
4. The power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision according to claim 3, wherein the technical evaluation indexes comprise a capacity-to-load ratio mean value, a spare coefficient mean value and a construction capacity fluctuation degree; the social evaluation indexes comprise the mean value of the unit investment newly increased power supply capacity, the degree of unit investment conservation and the mean value of the unit investment newly increased line channel floor area.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the index of the comprehensive evaluation of investment benefit includes social benefit index, economic benefit index and power grid coordination index.
6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the social benefit indicators include environmental quality influence degree, available employment number, public satisfaction degree, sustainable development level; the economic benefit indexes comprise cost profit rate, unit investment power increase and supply quantity average value, unit investment loss reduction and power consumption, power grid investment income ratio, transformation capacitance load ratio average value, line average load rate and unit investment profit rate average value; the power grid coordination indexes comprise the number ratio mean value of 110kV-500kV transformer substations, the number ratio mean value of 110kV-220kV transformer substations, the total capacity ratio mean value of 110kV-500kV transformer substations and the total capacity ratio mean value of 110kV-220kV transformer substations.
7. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 4, assuming that one grid a has n construction schemes and the other grid B has m construction schemes, the construction strategy combinations of the two grids have n × m, the performance of the n × m grid construction strategy combinations in the investment benefit evaluation is calculated by weighting according to the index in the grid investment comprehensive benefit evaluation, and the comprehensive evaluation result in the benefit evaluation is recorded as ci,jI ═ 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, …, m; the final comprehensive evaluation score calculation formula of the construction strategy combination is as follows:
dij=α×di,A+β×dj,B+cij
wherein, i is 1,2, …, n, j is 1,2, …, m, α and β are weight coefficients of the evaluation results of the construction strategy of the A power grid and the B power grid respectively, and α is β is 0.5 in value according to di,jThe sizes of the grid-connected power grid are sorted from high to low, and a plurality of superior power grid construction strategy combination schemes are screened out.
8. The method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the key indices of the power grid investment comprehensive benefit evaluation indices are selected to simplify calculation.
CN202010332885.0A 2020-04-24 2020-04-24 Power grid investment strategy optimization method considering power transmission and distribution price supervision Pending CN111553525A (en)

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* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
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CN116581753A (en) * 2023-05-29 2023-08-11 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Transformer spare part configuration strategy optimization method, device, medium and equipment

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN116581753A (en) * 2023-05-29 2023-08-11 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Transformer spare part configuration strategy optimization method, device, medium and equipment
CN116581753B (en) * 2023-05-29 2024-01-02 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Transformer spare part configuration strategy optimization method, device, medium and equipment

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