CN111507612A - Method for analyzing influence factors of life cycle cost of power transformer - Google Patents

Method for analyzing influence factors of life cycle cost of power transformer Download PDF

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CN111507612A
CN111507612A CN202010295122.3A CN202010295122A CN111507612A CN 111507612 A CN111507612 A CN 111507612A CN 202010295122 A CN202010295122 A CN 202010295122A CN 111507612 A CN111507612 A CN 111507612A
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卞建鹏
张玲
滑伟静
杨巍巍
李亚敏
郝培旭
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Shijiazhuang Tiedao University
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for analyzing cost influence factors of a power transformer in a full life cycle, which comprises the following steps of: establishing a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer; establishing a power transformer system dynamic model of the life cycle cost based on each influence factor according to a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer; simulating and operating a power transformer system dynamic model to obtain a simulation value of the power transformer life cycle cost; and adjusting the values of the influence factors, judging the influence of the influence factors on the life cycle cost of the power transformer, and determining the key influence factors. The method starts from the system dynamics theory, calculates the life cycle cost of the power transformer, can directly reflect the life cycle cost and the change process of cost influence factors by adjusting the value of parameters, further researches the influence of the life cycle cost and the change process of the cost influence factors on the total cost, determines key cost influence factors, has good practicability and is worthy of popularization.

Description

Method for analyzing influence factors of life cycle cost of power transformer
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power construction planning, and particularly relates to a method for analyzing cost influence factors of a power transformer in a full life cycle.
Background
The power transformer plays an extremely important role in power transmission and energy conversion in a power system, has the characteristics of large investment, complex operation and maintenance, long service life and the like, and the Cost of the power transformer occupies a quite important share in the investment of the whole power system.
The parameters in the power transformer life cycle cost model are mostly established on the basis of future prediction and judgment, so that various uncertain factors exist in life cycle cost analysis, the influence of the factors on life cycle cost is determined, the cost estimation precision can be improved, the decision risk can be reduced, and meanwhile, the life cycle cost can be effectively reduced by balancing and controlling the factors with larger influence degree.
At present, a large amount of research is carried out on the influence factors of the life cycle cost of the power transformer by scholars, various algorithms are provided for analyzing the influence factors, most of the algorithms are analyzed only according to data, the researched life cycle cost of the power transformer lacks of systematic thinking, and the relation between each factor and the life cycle cost cannot be intuitively seen.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method for analyzing cost impact factors of a power transformer in a full life cycle, so as to solve the above-mentioned problems.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a method for analyzing influence factors of the life cycle cost of a power transformer comprises the following steps:
establishing a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer;
establishing a power transformer system dynamic model of the life cycle cost based on each influence factor according to a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer;
simulating and operating a power transformer system dynamic model to obtain a simulation value of the power transformer life cycle cost;
and adjusting the values of the influence factors, judging the influence of the influence factors on the life cycle cost of the power transformer, and determining the key influence factors.
Preferably, the step of establishing a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer comprises the following steps:
the life cycle cost Y is calculated using equation (1):
Y＝C1+C2+C3+C4+C5(1)
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
C1＝Cp+Ci+Co(2)
C2＝COP+CFC+CVC(3)
CFC＝a×Pg×(8760TS) (4)
Figure BDA0002451890660000021
Figure BDA0002451890660000022
CVC＝a×E (7)
Figure BDA0002451890660000023
Figure BDA0002451890660000024
Figure BDA0002451890660000025
Figure BDA0002451890660000031
Figure BDA0002451890660000032
Figure BDA0002451890660000033
Figure BDA0002451890660000034
Figure BDA0002451890660000035
C5＝CT-CR＝0.32Ci-0.05Cp(16)
wherein Y represents the power transformer full life cycle cost, C1Denotes initial input cost, C2Represents the running cost, C3Represents the maintenance cost, C4Representing the cost of the power loss, C5Representing the retirement cost; cpIs a purchase fee; ciFor installation and commissioning costs, CoFor other costs, COPFor cost of operating personnel, CFCTo fix the power loss cost, CVCFor variable power loss costs, a is the price of electricity sold, PgFor fixed power loss, TSThe annual outage time of a power transformer, x the failure rate of the transformer, tamFor the equivalent service life of a power transformer, E is the amount of power lost in variable power, tnIs the nominal working age, t1Time of first overhaul, t2Time to first overhaul, α1、α2Are respectively twiceA major repair service age roll-off factor; pL.maxS, y are rated capacity and maximum load factor of power transformer, U, R is rated voltage and equivalent resistance, ClFor the major repair costs of the power transformer, CmL denotes the total repair cost of the power transformer, C'm(t) Total minor repair cost considering discount Rate, Cl(t1)、Cl(t2) Two major repair costs to account for discount rate, CTFor decommissioning treatment costs, CRIs the residual value of the retired power supply,
Figure BDA0002451890660000036
is the power factor.
Preferably, the power transformer system dynamics model based on the life cycle cost of each influencing factor is established, and the method comprises the following steps:
carrying out causal relationship analysis on the total life cycle cost of the power transformer according to the total life cycle cost model of the power transformer, and drawing a causal relationship graph;
on the basis of the causal relationship diagram, carrying out quantitative analysis on all factors of the system, and drawing a system stock flow diagram of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer;
and establishing a system dynamic equation among all variables according to the constructed system stock flow chart of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer and a calculation formula of all the costs of the power transformer.
Preferably, determining the key influencing factors comprises the steps of:
inputting initial parameter values of relevant influence factors;
changing the parameter value according to the value range of the researched influence factor, correspondingly obtaining the life cycle cost value and the life cycle cost change trend chart under each value, and respectively obtaining different influence factors and life cycle cost change curves;
comparing the cost variation range according to the life cycle cost of different influence factors in the value range, and when the variation trend of the relation between the influence factors and the life cycle cost is obvious, judging that the influence factors have large influence on the life cycle cost, and taking the influence factors as key influence factors.
Preferably, when a certain influencing factor is studied, only the influencing factor is changed, and the values of other influencing factors are kept unchanged.
The invention provides a method for analyzing the cost influence factors of the whole life cycle of a power transformer, which has the following beneficial effects:
1. the invention starts from the whole life cycle cost, and on the basis of considering the discount rate, the influence of maintenance on the fault rate and the equivalent service life is mainly considered, namely the maintenance effect is gradually reduced along with the increase of the maintenance times, so that more accurate whole life cycle cost can be calculated through system dynamics, and the distribution condition of each cost is obtained.
2. The invention applies the system dynamics method to the life cycle cost model of the power transformer, better reflects the complex relation among all cost elements in the system and more intuitively reflects the dynamic change process of the life cycle cost.
3. The influence of the influence factors on the total cost is further researched by adjusting the values of the influence factors, the main influence factors of the life cycle cost are analyzed, a reference basis is provided for life cycle cost control and investment decision, a new thought is provided for life cycle cost calculation and influence factor analysis, the practicability is good, and the method is worthy of popularization.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a causal graph of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a full life cycle cost system inventory flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the relationship between the dynamic variation of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a graph of equivalent service life and failure rate simulation results for the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a graph of the effect of discount rate on life cycle cost of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a graph of the effect of power factor on life cycle cost of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a graph of the effect of load rate on life cycle cost for the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a graph illustrating the effect of electricity selling price on life cycle cost of the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a graph of the effect of overhaul time on full life cycle cost of the present invention;
FIG. 11 is a three-dimensional point distribution curve of the present invention.
Detailed Description
An embodiment of a method for analyzing the life cycle cost impact factor of a power transformer according to the present invention is described in detail with reference to fig. 1 to 11, but it should be understood that the scope of the present invention is not limited by the embodiment.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, a method for analyzing influence factors of cost of a power transformer in a full life cycle includes the following steps:
step 1: from the perspective of the system, the life cycle cost of the power transformer is a complete and dynamically-changing system, the core of the system is the cost of the power transformer, the cost of the power transformer is composed of a plurality of factors, the life cycle cost of the power transformer is divided into five subsystems of initial input cost, operation cost, overhaul cost, power failure loss cost and retirement cost, and the life cycle cost Y of the power transformer is calculated:
Y＝C1+C2+C3+C4+C5(1)
wherein Y represents the power transformer full life cycle cost, C1Denotes initial input cost, C2Represents the running cost, C3Represents the maintenance cost, C4Representing the cost of the power loss, C5Representing the retirement cost.
The initial input cost C1The calculation method comprises the following steps:
C1＝Cp+Ci+Co(2)
wherein, CpFor purchasingA fee; ciDebugging costs for installation; coFor other costs.
The running cost C2Including in particular the cost of operating personnel COPFixed power loss cost CFCAnd variable power loss cost CVC：
C2＝COP+CFC+CVC(3)
For the power transformer with the determined type, the cost of operators is relatively fixed; the fixed power loss cost is caused by no-load loss independent of the load size, and is calculated by the formula:
CFC＝a×Pg×(8760TS) (4)
wherein, a is the price of electricity sold; pgA fixed power loss; t isSThe annual outage time of the transformer.
If the fault rate of the transformer is recorded as x, the fault repair time is recorded as TRThen the transformer year outage time, which accounts for reliability, can be expressed as:
Figure BDA0002451890660000071
the fault rate x calculation formula of the power transformer is as follows:
Figure BDA0002451890660000072
wherein, tamIs the equivalent service life of the power transformer.
Variable power loss costs are related to load size and are caused by losses that occur when current passes through resistors in the transformer windings. The annually variable power loss costs are:
CVC＝a×E (7)
wherein, E is the loss electric quantity of the variable power, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002451890660000073
wherein, tmaxMaximum load loss time; pL.maxActive power loss at maximum load; s, y are rated capacity and maximum load rate of the transformer; u, R are rated voltage and equivalent resistance, respectively.
Cost of overhaul C3The maintenance of the transformer in the operation period generates labor cost, material cost, service cost and the like, including major repair cost and periodic repair (minor repair) cost. The power transformer generally needs to be repaired once a year, and the condition that the transformer is overhauled twice is considered, so the overhaul cost C is low3Can be expressed as:
Figure BDA0002451890660000074
wherein L represents the life of the transformer, C'm(t) total minor repair costs considering discount rate; cl(t1)、Cl(t2) Two major repairs are cost to consider discount rate. According to the related data, the cost of single overhaul is about 6% of the purchase cost of the power transformer, and the minor repair cost is about 0.2% of the purchase cost of the power transformer, so the minor repair cost is:
Figure BDA0002451890660000075
the two major repair costs can be expressed as:
Figure BDA0002451890660000081
Figure BDA0002451890660000082
equivalent service life t of transformer after overhaulamComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002451890660000083
wherein, tnIs the nominal working age, t1Time of first overhaul, t2Time to first overhaul, α1、α2Respectively two major repair service life rollback factors;
therefore, the transformer fault rate expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0002451890660000084
loss on blackout cost C4The calculation method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002451890660000085
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002451890660000086
is the power factor.
The decommissioning cost of the power transformer refers to the processing expenses of disassembly, recovery and the like of the power transformer after the service life cycle of the power transformer is ended, and is added with the negative value of the residual value of the power transformer during decommissioning. According to the "power grid engineering construction budgeting and calculation standard use guideline", when the service life of the power transformer is reached, the residual value is about 5% of the purchase fee, the cleaning fee rate is 32% of the installation fee of the equipment, and the calculation method comprises the following steps:
C5＝CT-CR
＝0.32Ci-0.05Cp(16)
wherein, CTA decommissioning treatment fee; cRIs the residual value in retirement.
Step 2: and establishing a power transformer system dynamic model based on the life cycle cost by using system dynamics Vensim software according to the established power transformer life cycle cost model and considering the time value of capital.
Step 2-1: the system dynamics represents the relationship among all components of the system through a causal relationship diagram, the causal relationship analysis is carried out on the cost of the whole life cycle of the power transformer according to the cost calculation formula of all the components, and the causal relationship diagram is drawn as shown in FIG. 2, wherein: the arrows with "+" represent positive cause and effect relationships and the arrows with "-" represent negative cause and effect relationships.
Step 2-2: on the basis of the causal graph of fig. 2, causal polarity and feedback loop polarity are maintained, quantitative analysis is performed on various factors of the system, and a system stock flow chart of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer is drawn as shown in fig. 3.
Step 2-3: according to the constructed system stock flow chart of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer and a calculation formula of each cost of the power transformer, a system dynamics equation among all variables is established, wherein the main equation in the system comprises the following components:
(1) transmission power increase IF THEN E L SE (maximum transmission power-transmission power <0,0, transmission power 0.05)
(2) INTEG (increased amount of electric power to be delivered, initial electric power to be delivered)
(3) Cost of operation INTEG (incremental cost of operation, 0)
(4) Equivalent service life IF THEN E L SE (Time < > first overhaul Time, IF THEN E L SE (Time < second overhaul Time, Time-first overhaul service life back factor: first overhaul Time, Time + (first overhaul service life back factor: second overhaul service life back factor-first overhaul service life back factor): first overhaul Time-second overhaul service life back factor))
(5) Cost of blackout loss is INTEG (increased blackout loss, 0)
And step 3: analyzing through Vensim software, inputting the previously established equation through a system stock flow chart established in the Vensim software of the computer, and clicking a Simulant button to operate a system model, thereby simulating and obtaining the total life cycle cost of the power transformer.
And 4, step 4: the change process of the life cycle cost and the cost influence factor can be directly reflected by adjusting the value of the influence factor, and a key factor is obtained.
Step 4-1: initial parameter values of the relevant influencing factors are input.
Step 4-2: and changing the parameter value according to the value range of the researched influence factor, correspondingly obtaining the life cycle cost value and the life cycle cost change trend chart under each value, and respectively obtaining different influence factors and life cycle cost change processes.
Step 4-3: comparing the cost variation range according to the life cycle cost of different influence factors in the value range, and if the variation trend of the relation between the influence factors and the life cycle cost is obvious, indicating that the life cycle cost is greatly influenced.
In the method for analyzing the cost influence factors of the power transformer in the whole life cycle, in the step 4-2, when a certain influence factor is researched, other parameter values are kept unchanged.
In this embodiment, a life cycle cost-affecting factor analysis is performed on a 120MVA power transformer. The parameters used in the cost calculation are detailed in table 1.
The parameters are input into the model, the age limit is set to 1 to 20 years, and the transformer is assumed to be overhauled twice in the 8 th and 15 th years respectively.
TABLE 1 some 120MVA power transformer parameters
Figure BDA0002451890660000101
TABLE 2 Power Transformer full Life cycle cost constitution
Figure BDA0002451890660000111
The running operation is simulated through Vensim software, and the model passes mechanical error detection, dimension consistency detection and validity detection. The dynamic variation relationship of the costs of the power transformer in the life cycle is shown in fig. 4, and the calculation results of the costs are shown in table 2.
Each overhaul of the power transformer causes the service life of the power transformer to have a certain rollback phenomenon, the fault rate of the corresponding age of the power transformer also changes, and further the whole life cycle cost of the power transformer is influenced, as shown in the simulation result of the equivalent service life and the fault rate of fig. 5, the overhaul of the power transformer in the 8 th year and the 15 th year respectively reduces the equivalent service life and the fault rate of the power transformer, and the service life rollback generated by the first overhaul is larger than that generated by the second overhaul, because the maintenance effect gradually decreases along with the increase of the maintenance times, namely, the performance of the power transformer presents a decline condition along with the increase of the maintenance times, and the method is in line with the real practice.
TABLE 3 cost drivers for the total life cycle cost of power transformers and the variation range thereof
Figure BDA0002451890660000112
In this embodiment, five uncertain large factors, namely, a power factor, a load factor, a discount rate, a power selling price and overhaul time, are mainly studied, table 3 shows a cost factor of the power transformer full-life cycle cost and a variation range thereof, and a variation condition of the actual power transformer full-life cycle cost output is simulated and analyzed by adjusting values of key cost factors affecting the power transformer full-life cycle cost within the variation range. Through simulation, the obtained results are shown in fig. 6-10 and table 4, and it can be known that the relationship between the discount rate and the life cycle cost is in negative correlation, and the trend change of the relationship with the cost is obvious, namely, the life cycle cost is greatly influenced; the power factor, the load rate, the electricity selling price and the life cycle cost are in a positive correlation relationship, wherein the load rate has a large influence on the life cycle cost, and the power factor, the electricity selling price and the life cycle cost are relatively gentle in relationship and have a small influence on the life cycle cost; different overhaul time also can cause certain influence to life cycle cost, selects suitable time to overhaul power transformer not only can reduce the power grid and have a power failure risk, can also reduce the cost.
TABLE 4 Total Life cycle cost at different overhaul times
Figure BDA0002451890660000121
Three-dimensional point distribution curves are respectively drawn by taking the first overhaul time, the second overhaul time and the total life cycle cost as an x axis, a y axis and a z axis, and are shown in fig. 11. The curve can intuitively express that the total life cycle cost is minimum when the overhaul is carried out for 6.5 years and 13.5 years respectively, and the minimum value is 3435.27 ten thousand yuan.
The invention starts from the whole life cycle cost, and on the basis of considering the discount rate, the influence of maintenance on the fault rate and the equivalent service life is mainly considered, namely the maintenance effect is gradually reduced along with the increase of the maintenance times, so that more accurate whole life cycle cost can be calculated through system dynamics, and the distribution condition of each cost is obtained; the invention applies the system dynamics method to the life cycle cost model of the power transformer, better reflects the complex relation among all cost elements in the system, and more intuitively reflects the dynamic change process of the life cycle cost; the influence of the influence factors on the total cost is further researched by adjusting the values of the influence factors, the main influence factors of the life cycle cost are analyzed, a reference basis is provided for life cycle cost control and investment decision, a new thought is provided for life cycle cost calculation and influence factor analysis, the practicability is good, and the method is worthy of popularization.
The above disclosure is only for the preferred embodiments of the present invention, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto, and any variations that can be made by those skilled in the art are intended to fall within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (5)

1. A method for analyzing influence factors of the life cycle cost of a power transformer is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer;
establishing a power transformer system dynamic model of the life cycle cost based on each influence factor according to a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer;
simulating and operating a power transformer system dynamic model to obtain a simulation value of the power transformer life cycle cost;
and adjusting the values of the influence factors, judging the influence of the influence factors on the life cycle cost of the power transformer, and determining the key influence factors.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of establishing a mathematical model of the life cycle cost of the power transformer comprises the steps of:
the life cycle cost Y is calculated using equation (1):
Y＝C1+C2+C3+C4+C5(1)
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
C1＝Cp+Ci+Co(2)
C2＝COP+CFC+CVC(3)
CFC＝a×Pg×(8760TS) (4)
Figure FDA0002451890650000011
Figure FDA0002451890650000012
CVC＝a×E (7)
Figure FDA0002451890650000013
Figure FDA0002451890650000021
Figure FDA0002451890650000022
Figure FDA0002451890650000023
Figure FDA0002451890650000024
Figure FDA0002451890650000025
Figure FDA0002451890650000026
Figure FDA0002451890650000027
C5＝CT-CR＝0.32Ci-0.05Cp(16)
wherein Y represents the power transformer full life cycle cost, C1Denotes initial input cost, C2Represents the running cost, C3Represents the maintenance cost, C4Representing the cost of the power loss, C5Representing the retirement cost; cpIs a purchase fee; ciFor installation and commissioning costs, CoFor other costs, COPFor cost of operating personnel, CFCTo fix the power loss cost, CVCFor variable power loss costs, a is the price of electricity sold, PgFor fixed power loss, TSThe annual outage time of a power transformer, x the failure rate of the transformer, tamFor the equivalent service life of a power transformer, E is the amount of power lost in variable power, tnIs the nominal working age, t1Time of first overhaul, t2Time to first overhaul, α1、α2Respectively two major repair service life rollback factors; pL.maxS, y are rated capacity and maximum load factor of the power transformer respectively for active power loss under maximum load, U, R are rated voltage and equivalent resistance respectively,Clfor the major repair costs of the power transformer, CmL denotes the total repair cost of the power transformer, C'm(t) Total minor repair cost considering discount Rate, Cl(t1)、Cl(t2) Two major repair costs to account for discount rate, CTFor decommissioning treatment costs, CRIs the residual value of the retired power supply,
Figure FDA0002451890650000028
is the power factor.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of establishing a power transformer system dynamics model based on the life cycle cost of each influencing factor comprises the steps of:
carrying out causal relationship analysis on the total life cycle cost of the power transformer according to the total life cycle cost model of the power transformer, and drawing a causal relationship graph;
on the basis of the causal relationship diagram, carrying out quantitative analysis on all factors of the system, and drawing a system stock flow diagram of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer;
and establishing a system dynamic equation among all variables according to the constructed system stock flow chart of the total life cycle cost of the power transformer and a calculation formula of all the costs of the power transformer.
4. The power transformer full-life-cycle cost impact factor analysis method of claim 1, wherein determining the key impact factors comprises the steps of:
inputting initial parameter values of relevant influence factors;
changing the parameter value according to the value range of the researched influence factor, correspondingly obtaining the life cycle cost value and the life cycle cost change trend chart under each value, and respectively obtaining different influence factors and life cycle cost change curves;
comparing the cost variation range according to the life cycle cost of different influence factors in the value range, and when the variation trend of the relation between the influence factors and the life cycle cost is obvious, judging that the influence factors have large influence on the life cycle cost, and taking the influence factors as key influence factors.
5. The method as claimed in claim 4, wherein when a certain influence factor is studied, only the influence factor is changed, and other influence factors are kept unchanged.
CN202010295122.3A 2020-04-15 2020-04-15 Method for analyzing influence factors of life cycle cost of power transformer Pending CN111507612A (en)

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