CN111507606A - Toughness evaluation method for complex energy interconnection system - Google Patents

Toughness evaluation method for complex energy interconnection system Download PDF

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CN111507606A
CN111507606A CN202010286349.1A CN202010286349A CN111507606A CN 111507606 A CN111507606 A CN 111507606A CN 202010286349 A CN202010286349 A CN 202010286349A CN 111507606 A CN111507606 A CN 111507606A
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刘文霞
黄钰辰
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Abstract

The invention relates to a toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system, which comprises the following steps: step 1: analyzing the dynamic process of the energy interconnection system under a typical extreme event to obtain the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystem arranged under the energy interconnection system under the typical extreme event, wherein the subsystem comprises a fault subsystem and a non-fault subsystem; step 2: based on the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystems, establishing an energy interconnection system toughness evaluation index system, wherein the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection index of a fault subsystem to a non-fault subsystem and a feedback index of the non-fault subsystem to the fault subsystem; and step 3: determining typical extreme event scenes and the probability thereof of the energy interconnection system by a sampling method; and 4, step 4: obtaining a functional function curve of the energy interconnection system and the lower facility system under each typical extreme event through a simulation method; and calculating to obtain the value of the toughness evaluation index of the energy interconnection system based on the functional function curve.

Description

Toughness evaluation method for complex energy interconnection system
Technical Field
The invention relates to a toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system.
Background
In order to relieve the problems of fossil energy exhaustion and environmental pollution, a new generation energy system forms a multi-main-body structure which takes electricity-gas interconnection as a main energy framework, is supplemented with a large amount of renewable energy and comprehensively supplies tail-end multi-energy, and is a complex energy interconnection system with the characteristics of intellectualization, marketization and flattening. The system can improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency and the application flexibility of energy sources through the coupling between the subsystems and the energy sources, and simultaneously, due to the fact that the multiple bodies of the system are in decentralized decision and the subsystems are interconnected and mutually complemented, the system becomes more fragile when facing security threats, and even generates a burst effect.
In recent years, the worldwide large area blackout incident has been told: with the expansion of the power grid scale, the occurrence probability of a major power failure is also increased continuously, and is not always a small-probability event. In order to reduce the loss caused by large-area power failure, the concept of toughness is provided in the process of researching the adjustment and repair of the system after an extreme event occurs, the concept of toughness is used for evaluating the resistance, adaptation and repair capacity of the system, and the technical measure of improving the toughness is optimized through evaluation. Therefore, aiming at the characteristics of the complex energy interconnection system, the toughness and the influence factors of the complex energy interconnection system are researched, and the complex energy interconnection system has important significance on the construction of future energy systems and the market mechanism customization.
In the prior art most relevant to the present invention, the researchers proposed defining the toughness index as the integral of the system function damage part with time based on the dynamic response curve (function curve) of the system after the disaster. The prior art has the defects that the existing toughness evaluation objects are single systems, and even interconnected systems are assumed to be unified and coordinated in decision making of all subsystems. Under the market condition, the complex energy interconnection system has the characteristics of multiple main bodies, autonomy in distribution and independent decision, so that the dynamic response mechanism of the complex energy interconnection system is more complex, and the risk of occurrence of the surge exists in the presence of large disturbance. How to reflect the dynamic relevance and feedback action of each subsystem under a multi-decision mechanism and deeply dig key factors influencing the toughness becomes a difficult point of toughness evaluation.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system, which can realize more effective evaluation on the toughness of the system based on the dynamic relevance and the feedback action of each subsystem.
The technical scheme for realizing the purpose of the invention is as follows:
a toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: analyzing the dynamic process of the energy interconnection system under a typical extreme event to obtain the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystem arranged under the energy interconnection system under the typical extreme event, wherein the subsystem comprises a fault subsystem and a non-fault subsystem;
step 2: based on the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystems, establishing an energy interconnection system toughness evaluation index system, wherein the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection index of a fault subsystem to a non-fault subsystem and a feedback index of the non-fault subsystem to the fault subsystem;
and step 3: determining typical extreme event scenes and the probability thereof of the energy interconnection system by a sampling method;
and 4, step 4: obtaining a functional function curve of the energy interconnection system and the lower facility system under each typical extreme event through a simulation method; and calculating to obtain the value of the toughness evaluation index of the energy interconnection system based on the functional function curve.
Further, in step 1, the system function is that the system can satisfy the proportion of the load to the total load demand, for the system containing multiple types of loads, the function value is weighted and calculated according to the economic value of each type of load,
Figure BDA0002448656120000031
in the formula, σk(t) represents the proportion of k-type loads in the total demands of the k-type loads at the moment t;kis a k-type load economic value factor; f (t) is a function value of the complex energy interconnection system.
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an absorption capacity index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Eabsorption＝td-tD＝Δt
in the formula, EabsorptionIs the absorption capacity of the faulty system; t is tdThe moment when the fault system starts to have function loss; t is tDThe moment when the malicious attack occurs; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability.
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an adaptability index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000032
in the formula, EadaptationIs the adaptability of the system; fA(td) Function values after the fault system is adjusted for the first time; fA(t0) The function value is the function value when the system is normal.
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an initial infection depth index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000033
in the formula, Einfection,0The initial depth of infection of the system; finf,0(t) is a function of the system after initial infection; f (t)d) Is tdFunction value of the time system; f (t)f) Is tfFunction value of the time system; t is tfThe moment when feedback occurs; t is trStarting to repair the fault system; for a scenario where no feedback effect occurs, t can be consideredf＝+∞。
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises feedback times and feedback infection depth index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000041
in the formula, NfeedbackThe number of feedbacks occurring during evolution; einfectionDepth of infection for feedback to the system; nm → n represents the number of times that the subsystem m generates disturbance excitation on the subsystem n; for scenarios where no feedback is present, Nfeedback0 and Einfection＝0。
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection chain length and evolution speed index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000042
wherein R isinfectionLength of the infectious strand of the system; edeteriorateIs the evolution speed of the system; n is a radical ofBThe total number of subsystems in the set B; n isBThe number of infected subsystems in the set B; t is t0The moment when the system normally operates; t is tmThe time when the system function is lowered to the lowest point; f (t)0) Is t0A function value of a system at a time (when the system is normal); f (t)m) Is tmFunction value of the time system; Δ FlossThe loss of function of the system in the whole evolution process.
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises a repair ability and a recovery level index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000051
Erepairl is the repair capability of the systemrepairIs the recovery level of the system; t is teTo the moment of re-reaching stabilization by the component repair system; t is trThe moment the system starts to repair.
Further, in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises a comprehensive toughness index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000052
wherein E is the comprehensive toughness index of the system; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability.
Further, in step 4, the toughness evaluation index in each typical extreme event scenario is calculated, and the expected value of the toughness evaluation index is obtained by combining the probabilities of the respective scenarios, where each toughness evaluation index can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002448656120000053
wherein P(s) is the probability of occurrence of scene s; r(s) is a toughness evaluation index under the fault scene s; Ω is a typical extreme event scene set; r is the final expected value of each toughness evaluation index.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method, subsystems arranged under a complex energy interconnection system are divided into a fault subsystem and a non-fault subsystem, and in order to express the evolution characteristics of fault infection, transfer and cyclic feedback among the subsystems, in a system toughness evaluation index system, an infection index of the fault subsystem to the non-fault subsystem and a feedback index of the non-fault subsystem to the fault subsystem are set, so that a toughness evaluation index system for complex energy interconnection is constructed, and more effective evaluation on the toughness of the system is realized.
The system function of the invention is that the system can meet the proportion of the load to the total load demand, for the system containing various loads, the function value is weighted and calculated according to the economic value of each load,
Figure BDA0002448656120000061
in the formula, σk(t) represents the proportion of k-type loads in the total demands of the k-type loads at the moment t;kis a k-type load economic value factor; f (t) is a function value of the complex energy interconnection system. In the prior art, the function is generally taken as the measurement standard of the function through the characteristics of system capacity, the number of normally operated elements, energy supply power or efficiency and the like, and the system can meet the requirement of the load accounting for the total loadAnd the system toughness evaluation is used as a measurement, so that the system toughness evaluation is scientific and accurate.
The toughness evaluation indexes of the invention comprise an initial infection depth index and an initial infection depth Einfection,0Is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000062
in the formula, Einfection,0The initial depth of infection of the system; finf,0(t) is a function of the system after initial infection; f (t)d) Is tdFunction value of the time system; f (t)f) Is tfFunction value of the time system; t is tfThe moment when feedback occurs; t is trStarting to repair the fault system; for a scenario where no feedback effect occurs, t can be consideredf＝+∞。
The toughness evaluation index of the invention comprises feedback times and feedback infection depth index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000071
in the formula, NfeedbackThe number of feedbacks occurring during evolution; einfectionDepth of infection for feedback to the system; nm → n represents the number of times that the subsystem m generates disturbance excitation on the subsystem n; for scenarios where no feedback is present, Nfeedback0 and Einfection＝0。
The toughness evaluation index of the invention comprises an infection chain length and evolution speed index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000072
wherein R isinfectionLength of the infectious strand of the system; edeteriorateIs the evolution speed of the system; n is a radical ofBThe total number of subsystems in the set B; n isBThe number of infected subsystems in the set B; t is t0For the system to be normalThe time of operation; t is tmThe time when the system function is lowered to the lowest point; f (t)0) Is t0A function value of a system at a time (when the system is normal); f (t)m) Is tmFunction value of the time system; Δ FlossThe loss of function of the system in the whole evolution process.
According to the method, through setting the initial infection depth index, the feedback times, the feedback infection depth index, the infection chain length, the evolution speed index and other calculation formulas, the evolution evaluation accuracy of fault infection, transfer and cyclic feedback among subsystems is further ensured, and the toughness of the whole system is further effectively evaluated.
The method is characterized by determining a typical extreme event scene and the probability of the energy interconnection system based on a Monte Carlo method sampling method, and obtaining a functional function curve of the energy interconnection system and a lower setting subsystem under each typical extreme event through a simulation method; and calculating to obtain the value of the toughness evaluation index of the energy interconnection system based on the functional function curve, and further ensuring that the system toughness is more effectively evaluated.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a functional graph of the various subsystems and the overall system under a typical extreme event;
FIG. 2 is an index system for toughness evaluation of the system of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in detail with reference to the embodiments shown in the drawings, but it should be understood that these embodiments are not intended to limit the present invention, and those skilled in the art should understand that functional, methodological, or structural equivalents or substitutions made by these embodiments are within the scope of the present invention.
A toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: the dynamic process of the energy interconnection system under a typical extreme event is analyzed, and the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the functional function characteristics of the subsystems arranged under the energy interconnection system under the typical extreme event are obtained, wherein the subsystems comprise a failure subsystem A (A type system) and a non-failure subsystem B (B type system).
The system function is that the system can satisfy the proportion of the load to the total load demand, for the system containing various loads, the function value is weighted and calculated according to the economic value of each load,
Figure BDA0002448656120000081
in the formula, σk(t) represents the proportion of k-type loads in the total demands of the k-type loads at the moment t;kis a k-type load economic value factor; f (t) is a function value of the complex energy interconnection system.
As shown in FIG. 1, the dynamic change process of the system function curve in a typical extreme event is described, wherein (1-1) - (1-3) depict the process of cascade propagation of inter-subsystem fault influence, and (1-4) depicts the performance of the overall system, and the horizontal dotted line represents the normal state of the system.
(1)tD～tdFault absorption phase
At tDThe time malicious attack occurs to cause the system to deviate from the optimal operation environment, the system state is deteriorated, tdA loss of system functionality occurs.
(2)td～trFault evolution phase
At tdThe system reaches a critical state, and in order to improve the system state, the class A system staff is at tdAnd (4) carrying out emergency response according to a self decision rule at the moment, such as changing the output of a source end and load shedding to adapt to the negative influence caused by disturbance, wherein the system enters a fault evolution stage at the moment, and the function is dropped. Due to the inter-subsystem deep coupling, the adjustment result may cause inter-subsystem fault influence propagation, feedback, iteration and even system crash.
The evolution process is as follows:
1) when the response result of the A-type system affects the coupling point with the B-type system, a new disturbance excitation signal is formed for the B-type system, and fault infection occurs as shown by a dotted line 1. The B-type system responds according to the decision rule of the B-type system under the disturbance excitation signal of the A-type system, and the development is carried out like a dotted line 2.
2) The response of the class B system may again be at time tfA new disturbance is brought to the class a system, i.e. feedback occurs, as shown by the dashed line 3 in fig. 1.
3) After the class-A system receives feedback excitation, emergency adjustment is continuously executed, re-infection can be caused, for example, a dotted line 4 is formed, so that the infection degree is deepened, a fault evolution cycle can be generated in the process, and a surge effect can be caused seriously.
It should be noted that the dotted line represents disturbance excitation that may exist in the evolution process, and if fault infection is eliminated by emergency adjustment in a certain subsystem in the evolution process, subsequent excitation action is not generated.
(3)tr～teFault repair phase
The A-type system recovers the equipment to be in a good state through emergency repair or equipment replacement at the stage, the system function is gradually increased, and at teAnd the moment reaches the stability again.
And (4) combining the function curves of the subsystems at the stages to draw a total system function curve (1-4). After the system is damaged by an extreme event, the curve I represents that the response measures of the fault subsystem do not affect other subsystems, and the fault does not continue to be infected; curve ii represents the presence of inter-subsystem fault infection, but no feedback in evolution; curve III represents the presence of inter-subsystem fault infection and the evolution of feedback and re-infection caused by feedback, so tfThe back curve further decreases, but the system can still recover due to reasons such as timely repair or decoupling; curve iv represents the process of the system failure worsening and thus collapsing due to feedback and severe infection.
Step 2: and establishing an energy interconnection system toughness evaluation index system based on the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystems, wherein the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection index of the fault subsystem to the non-fault subsystem and a feedback index of the non-fault subsystem to the fault subsystem.
As can be seen from the dynamic process analysis in fig. 1, the difference between the complex energy interconnection system and the single system is: in addition to the adaptive behavior of the emergency adjustment of the fault system, the evolution stage also has the correlation effect among multiple subsystems. In order to express the evolution characteristics of fault infection, transfer and circulation feedback among subsystems, the invention establishes a series of indexes for expressing coupling infection and feedback effects, thereby constructing a toughness evaluation index system for complex energy interconnection and seeking key elements influencing the toughness of the system through index analysis.
As shown in fig. 2, the dynamic process may be divided into an absorption stage, an evolution stage, and a repair stage, where different evaluation indexes are set corresponding to different stages, and comprehensive indexes of the three stages are set at the same time.
(1) Index of absorption Capacity
The absorption capacity corresponds to a fault absorption stage, represents the capacity of the fault system for generating resistance to damage, is related to the redundancy degree of the system, the firmness of elements, preventive measures, the external damage strength and the like, and can be measured by the time length delta t for maintaining the stable function of the system from the occurrence of the external damage to the falling of the system function:
absorption capacity EabsorptionIs obtained by the following formula,
Eabsorption＝td-tD＝Δt
in the formula, EabsorptionIs the absorption capacity of the faulty system; t is tdThe moment when the fault system starts to have function loss; t is tDThe moment when the malicious attack occurs; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability. For systems with small safety margins or extreme events with large destructive forces, Δ t may be small or close to 0.
(2) Index of adaptability
The adaptive capacity represents the capacity of the fault system in the evolution stage for maintaining the functions of the system through emergency operation adjustment for the first time.
Adaptability EadaptationIs obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000111
in the formula, EadaptationIs the adaptability of the system; fA(td) Function values after the fault system is adjusted for the first time; fA(t0) The function value is the function value when the system is normal.
(3) Initial infection depth indicator
The initial infection depth represents the accumulated loss degree of the system function before the fault influence propagation in the evolution stage does not form feedback:
initial depth of infection Einfection,0Is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000112
in the formula, Einfection,0The initial depth of infection of the system; finf,0(t) is a function of the system after initial infection; f (t)d) Is tdFunction value of the time system; f (t)f) Is tfFunction value of the time system; t is tfThe moment when feedback occurs; t is trStarting to repair the fault system; for a scenario where no feedback effect occurs, t can be consideredf＝+∞。
(4) Feedback frequency and feedback infection depth index
The feedback times represent the times of the propagation cycle deterioration affected by the fault; feedback infection depth characterizes the extent to which multiple reinfections by feedback cause cumulative loss of function.
The feedback times and the feedback infection depth are obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000121
in the formula, NfeedbackThe number of feedbacks occurring during evolution; einfectionDepth of infection for feedback to the system; nm → n represents the number of times that the subsystem m generates disturbance excitation on the subsystem n; for scenarios where no feedback is present, Nfeedback0 and Einfection＝0。
(5) Index of length and evolution speed of infection chain
The infection chain length and evolution speed are directed to the whole fault evolution stage, wherein the infection chain length characterizes the maximum range (number of individuals) of the system infected; the evolution speed represents the deterioration speed of the fault under the combined action of adaptation, infection, feedback and feedback infection.
The length of the infectious chain and the evolution speed are obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000122
wherein R isinfectionLength of the infectious strand of the system; edeteriorateIs the evolution speed of the system; n is a radical ofBThe total number of subsystems in the set B; n isBThe number of infected subsystems in the set B; t is t0The moment when the system normally operates; t is tmThe time when the system function is lowered to the lowest point; f (t)0) Is t0A function value of a system at a time (when the system is normal); f (t)m) Is tmFunction value of the time system; Δ FlossThe loss of function of the system in the whole evolution process.
(6) Index of restoration ability and restoration level
The repair capability represents the capability of the system for rapidly recovering the function by repairing the fault equipment, and the water balance is averaged by using the function of the system in the fault repair stage; the recovery level characterizes the ability of the system to recover normal functions, measured by the ratio of the function to recover to a new stable value to the original function value. The quality of both metrics is not only related to repair strategies and techniques, but also to the post repair rescheduling time, and therefore the recovery level may not be equal to 1.
The restoration ability and the restoration level are obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000131
Erepairis the repair capability of the system;Lrepairis the recovery level of the system; t is teTo the moment of re-reaching stabilization by the component repair system; t is trThe moment the system starts to repair.
(7) Index of comprehensive toughness index
The comprehensive toughness index aims at the whole fault influence time period, is the fusion of toughness measurement indexes of all stages, and represents the comprehensive capability of the system for dealing with extreme events.
The comprehensive toughness index is obtained by the following formula,
Figure BDA0002448656120000132
wherein E is the comprehensive toughness index of the system; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability.
In the above specification, the "failed system" refers to a failed subsystem, and the "system" refers to an overall system (energy interconnection system) including a plurality of subsystems.
And step 3: and determining typical extreme event scenes and the probability of the energy interconnection system by a sampling method.
Determining typical extreme event scenes and the probability thereof of the energy interconnection system based on a Monte Carlo sampling method,
the state of each device in the complex energy interconnection system is set to be [0, 1 ]]Simulating by uniform distribution of intervals; the method comprises the following steps that each device is assumed to have two states of failure and working, and the failure of the device is independent of the failure of the device; let siRepresenting the state of the device i, QiRepresenting its probability of failure, a value of [0, 1 ] is generated for device i]Random number R with uniformly distributed intervalsiAnd (2) making:
Figure BDA0002448656120000141
the state of the complex energy interconnection system with N devices in a fault scene is represented by a vector s:
s＝(s1,…,si,…sN)
when the number of samples is large enough, the sampling frequency of the system state s can be used as an unbiased estimate of its probability, i.e. the probability of the occurrence of the system fault scenario s can be expressed by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002448656120000142
wherein M is the number of samples; m(s) is the number of times the system state s occurs in a sample.
And 4, step 4: obtaining a functional function curve of the energy interconnection system and the lower facility system under each typical extreme event through a simulation method; and calculating to obtain the value of the toughness evaluation index of the energy interconnection system based on the functional function curve.
Calculating a toughness evaluation index under each typical extreme event scene, and calculating an expected value of the toughness evaluation index by combining the probability of each scene, wherein each toughness evaluation index can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002448656120000143
wherein P(s) is the probability of occurrence of scene s; r(s) is a toughness evaluation index under the fault scene s; i.e. r ═ Eabsorption，Eadaptation，Einfection,0，Nfeedback，Einfection，Rinfection，Edeteriorate，Erepair，LrepairE), omega is a typical extreme event scene set; r is the final expected value of each toughness evaluation index.
The above-listed detailed description is only a specific description of a possible embodiment of the present invention, and they are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and equivalent embodiments or modifications made without departing from the technical spirit of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
It will be evident to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the foregoing illustrative embodiments, and that the present invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential attributes thereof. The present embodiments are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein.

Claims (10)

1. A toughness evaluation method for a complex energy interconnection system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: analyzing the dynamic process of the energy interconnection system under a typical extreme event to obtain the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystem arranged under the energy interconnection system under the typical extreme event, wherein the subsystem comprises a fault subsystem and a non-fault subsystem;
step 2: based on the functional function characteristics of the energy interconnection system and the subsystems, establishing an energy interconnection system toughness evaluation index system, wherein the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection index of a fault subsystem to a non-fault subsystem and a feedback index of the non-fault subsystem to the fault subsystem;
and step 3: determining typical extreme event scenes and the probability thereof of the energy interconnection system by a sampling method;
and 4, step 4: obtaining a functional function curve of the energy interconnection system and the lower facility system under each typical extreme event through a simulation method; and calculating to obtain the value of the toughness evaluation index of the energy interconnection system based on the functional function curve.
2. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 1, the system function is that the system can meet the proportion of the load to the total load demand, for the system containing various loads, the function value is weighted and calculated according to the economic value of each load,
Figure FDA0002448656110000011
in the formula, σk(t) represents the proportion of k-type loads in the total demands of the k-type loads at the moment t;kis a k-type load economic value factor; f (t) is a function value of the complex energy interconnection system.
3. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an absorption capacity index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Eabsorption＝td-tD＝Δt
in the formula, EabsorptionIs the absorption capacity of the faulty system; t is tdThe moment when the fault system starts to have function loss; t is tDThe moment when the malicious attack occurs; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability.
4. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an adaptability index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000021
in the formula, EadaptationIs the adaptability of the system; fA(td) Function values after the fault system is adjusted for the first time; fA(t0) The function value is the function value when the system is normal.
5. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an initial infection depth index, which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000022
in the formula, Einfection,0The initial depth of infection of the system; finf,0(t) is a function of the system after initial infection; f (t)d) Is tdFunction value of the time system; f (t)f) Is tfFunction value of the time system; t is tfThe moment when feedback occurs; t is trStarting to repair the fault system; for a scenario where no feedback effect occurs, t can be consideredf＝+∞。
6. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises feedback times and feedback infection depth index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000031
in the formula, NfeedbackThe number of feedbacks occurring during evolution; einfectionDepth of infection for feedback to the system; nm → n represents the number of times that the subsystem m generates disturbance excitation on the subsystem n; for scenarios where no feedback is present, Nfeedback0 and Einfection＝0。
7. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises an infection chain length and evolution speed index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000032
wherein R isinfectionLength of the infectious strand of the system; edeteriorateIs the evolution speed of the system; n is a radical ofBThe total number of subsystems in the set B; n isBThe number of infected subsystems in the set B; t is t0The moment when the system normally operates; t is tmThe time when the system function is lowered to the lowest point; f (t)0) Is t0Time of dayFunction value of the system (when the system is normal); f (t)m) Is tmFunction value of the time system; Δ FlossThe loss of function of the system in the whole evolution process.
8. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises a repair ability and a recovery level index, and is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000041
Erepairl is the repair capability of the systemrepairIs the recovery level of the system; t is teTo the moment of re-reaching stabilization by the component repair system; t is trThe moment the system starts to repair.
9. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 2, the toughness evaluation index comprises a comprehensive toughness index which is obtained by the following formula,
Figure FDA0002448656110000042
wherein E is the comprehensive toughness index of the system; at is the length of time that the fault system maintains functional stability.
10. The toughness evaluation method for the interconnected system of complex energy resources according to claim 1, wherein: in step 4, toughness evaluation indexes under each typical extreme event scene are calculated, and the expected value of the toughness evaluation indexes is calculated by combining the probability of each scene, wherein each toughness evaluation index can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002448656110000051
wherein P(s) is the probability of occurrence of scene s; r(s) is a toughness evaluation index under the fault scene s; Ω is a typical extreme event scene set; r is the final expected value of each toughness evaluation index.
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