CN111461479B - Assessment method for confidence capacity of ocean island electricity conversion ship - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean island power conversion ship. The process is to obtain basic data of ocean islands, and calculate reliability index R of ocean islands of the power conversion ship according to the basic data Island_REW The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Adding a conventional unit in the ocean island and calculating a reliability index R of the ocean island without the power conversion ship and with the conventional unit Island The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating a reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island And updating the capacity of the conventional unit until the reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island And if the absolute value of the difference value is smaller than or equal to the set value, the conventional unit capacity when the absolute value of the difference value is smaller than or equal to the set value is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship. The invention evaluates the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship by using the conventional unit capacity, has simple method and more accurate evaluation result, and is beneficial to the operators of the ocean island micro-grid to intuitively know the problem of reliability improvement of the ocean island micro-grid under consideration of the influence of the power conversion ship.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of energy system operation analysis, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean island power conversion ship.
Background
For ocean islands far from continents, the energy supply of the ocean islands can only pass through an isolated power grid of the island or a power grid group of a plurality of nearby isolated islands, and the ocean islands can maintain the self energy consumption requirement by means of renewable energy sources such as wind power generation, photovoltaics, sea waves, tides and the like, conventional fuel gas generator sets and energy storage, wherein the renewable energy sources in the ocean islands are scattered in the islands, the regional characteristics are obvious, and the ocean islands often have the characteristic of inverse distribution with the load requirement: islands with rich renewable energy sources generally have a worse environment, fewer residents and lower load requirements; in areas with more residents and higher load demands, renewable energy sources are difficult to develop for power generation due to the limitation of factors such as the area of a configurable building.
Conventional power networks typically employ cables, overhead lines, etc. to achieve physical connection of the wires, but such interconnection is not necessarily suitable for ocean island networks. The underwater depth around ocean islands is larger, the relative distance between islands is longer, the installation condition of the overhead large-span transmission line is easily limited by the span, and the towers and the lines are greatly influenced by severe typhoon meteorological factors. Although the submarine cable fault rate is relatively low, the submarine cable is complex in laying and installation, high in investment cost and difficult in fault positioning and repairing, most islands can maintain autonomy by means of a gas turbine, power transmission requirements among the islands are small, transmission distances are long, economic transmission power and applicable transmission distances of the cable are difficult to match, and the transmission efficiency of the cable can be reduced by a long-time low-load-rate operation mode. Therefore, the laying method of directly connecting submarine cables and overhead lines is poor in economical efficiency and engineering feasibility for ocean islands. Due to the limitation of factors such as navigation paths, economy, strategy and the like, the micro-grids of the isolated islands are not necessarily connected through submarine cables, and thus the reliable and economic operation of the ocean island energy network is challenged.
With the increasing maturity of the full-electric propulsion ship technology, as a full-electric propulsion ship driven by electricity and capable of loading a high-capacity battery energy storage system for current collection and transportation, a power conversion ship (power exchanging watercraft, PEW) can replace part of traditional submarine cables, can travel among islands according to a certain route, collect the fully charged energy storage batteries, transport the fully charged energy storage batteries to islands with higher load requirements for supplying electric energy, and form a mixed electric energy transmission network among islands together with the submarine cables, so that the comprehensive cost of a power transmission network is reduced.
Currently, current research on power conversion ships in ocean islands mainly includes the following aspects:
(1) At present, researches on a power conversion carrier are mainly concentrated in the field of electric vehicles, less researches on power conversion ships are developed, researches on optimized dispatching, planning and energy optimized management of the power conversion ships are developed by Lin Xiangning subject groups of the university of science and technology electric and electronic engineering colleges, optimized dispatching strategies of the power conversion ships are researched in literature on ocean island discrete energy optimized dispatching strategy research of the power conversion ships, electric energy transmission network planning of ocean island group containing electric energy transmission routes of the power conversion ships is researched in literature on ocean island group containing electric energy transmission network planning of ocean island groups containing PEW, and energy optimized management of ocean island micro-grids considering PEW is researched in literature on the basis of energy optimal management research of ocean island micro-grids of space-time distribution characteristics of electric energy storage ships. However, these studies have not studied the effect of the capacity of the power conversion vessel on the ocean islands on the reliability of the ocean islands.
(2) Currently, indexes for measuring the confidence capacity of renewable energy sources are effective load capacity and fixed transfer capacity, and a Monte Carlo method is generally adopted for calculating the renewable energy source capacity to describe random characteristics of a conventional unit, a wind turbine unit and a load. However, there is no good method for evaluating the capacity of the power conversion ship, so that the capacity of the power conversion ship is incorporated into the ocean island micro-grid planning, and the waste of the ocean island spare capacity is caused.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the defects in the prior art, and provides a method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean island power conversion ship, which aims to evaluate the contribution of the available capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship to the reliability of a micro-grid of an ocean island group, so that the technical problem of quantitative evaluation of the contribution of the ocean island group power conversion ship to the reliability of the ocean island group is solved, the available capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship can be listed in the planning of an ocean island micro-grid, the configuration level of the standby capacity of the ocean island micro-grid is reduced, and the waste of the standby capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship is reduced.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: the method for evaluating the confidence capacity of the ocean island electricity conversion ship comprises the following steps of:
s1: acquiring basic data of an ocean island, and calculating a historical nomadic value curve of each energy source and load in the ocean island according to the basic data;
s2: calculating reliability index R of ocean islands of power conversion ships according to historical famous value curves of various energy sources and loads Island_REW ；
S3: adding a conventional unit in the ocean island, setting a capacity initial value of the conventional unit, and calculating a reliability index R of the ocean island without the power conversion ship and containing the conventional unit according to a historical famous value curve of each energy and load Island ；
S4: calculating a reliability index R Island_REW And reliably (and reliably)Sex index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is larger than the set value, updating the capacity of the conventional unit and calculating the reliability index R again Island Standard up to reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is smaller than or equal to the set value, the reliability index R is recorded Island_REW And reliability index R Island And when the absolute value of the difference is smaller than or equal to a set value, the conventional unit capacity is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship.
Further, the basic data of the ocean islands comprise the number of islands, the energy composition of each island, the available capacity of each energy source and the per unit value curve, the load value and the per unit value curve of the load of the power generation time sequence historical output of each energy source.
Further, the energy composition of the island comprises any one or more of a wind generating set, a photovoltaic generating set, a fuel oil and gas generating set, an energy storage set, a wave generating set, a tidal generating set and a power conversion ship.
Further, multiplying the available capacity of each energy source by the per-unit value curve of the power generation time sequence historical output of each energy source to obtain a historical famous value curve of each energy source; and multiplying the load value by the per unit value curve of the load to obtain a historical famous value curve of the load.
Further, the calculation process of the per unit value curve of the power conversion ship in the ocean island comprises the following steps:
1) Establishing a power conversion attribute model of the power conversion ship;
2) Inputting probability distribution, charge and discharge conditions of starting time, running time and running distance of the power conversion ship in the power conversion attribute model;
3) Determining an initial state of a power conversion attribute in the power conversion attribute model;
4) And generating a sample value which obeys corresponding distribution according to the characteristic value of the travel behavior of the power conversion ship, combining the load demand of the ocean island micro-grid, and generating a per unit value curve of the ocean island power conversion ship by adopting Monte Carlo simulation.
Further, the reliability index R Island_REW The calculation process of (1) is as follows: evenly dividing a certain time period into a plurality of time intervals according to the hours, calculating the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources on the ocean island in each time interval according to the historical famous value curve of each energy source, and comparing the load value in each time interval with the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources, wherein the probability that the load value in the time period is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources is the reliability index R Island_REW 。
Further, the reliability index R Island The calculation process of (1) is as follows: evenly dividing a certain time period into a plurality of time intervals according to hours, calculating the sum of available capacities of all energy sources which do not contain the power conversion ship on the ocean island in each time interval according to a historical famous value curve of each energy source, and comparing the sum of the available capacities of the load value and all the energy sources in each time interval, wherein the probability that the load value is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources in the time period is the reliability index R Island 。
Further, the method also comprises the step of calculating the capacity confidence coefficient C of the ocean island power conversion ship CCR_PEW ：
Wherein C is CC_PEW Confidence capacity for ocean island power conversion vessel, C Rated_PEW The installed capacity of the ocean island power exchange ship is used.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
the method of the invention adds a conventional unit on the basis of the original ocean islands, and calculates the reliability index R of the ocean islands of the power conversion ships according to the basic data of each ocean island group Island_REW And the reliability index R of ocean islands without power conversion ships and with conventional units Island When the absolute value of the difference between the two is smaller than or equal to a set value, the conventional unit capacity is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship, and the method evaluates the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship, is simple, has more accurate evaluation results and is beneficial to ocean island micro-electricityThe network operators can intuitively know the problem of reliability improvement of the ocean island micro-grid under the influence of the power exchange ship.
The method considers the power generation output time sequence and the load time sequence of the ocean island micro-grid and the power conversion characteristic of the power conversion ship, so that the available capacity of the power conversion ship can be listed in the ocean island micro-grid planning, the standby capacity allocation level of the ocean island micro-grid is reduced, and the waste of the ocean island standby capacity is avoided; the method comprehensively measures the charge and discharge characteristics of the ocean island power conversion ship, and quantitatively evaluates the available capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship; the evaluation method comprehensively considers the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid, and solves the problem of quantitative evaluation of the reliability improvement of the ocean island micro-grid under the influence of the power conversion ship.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the evaluation method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of energy supply for a sea island group, and each sea island energy source composition comprises a photovoltaic generator set, a wind generator set, an energy storage tidal generator set, a wave generator set and a gas-fuel generator set.
Detailed Description
The following describes the embodiments of the present invention further with reference to the drawings. The description of these embodiments is provided to assist understanding of the present invention, but is not intended to limit the present invention. In addition, technical features of the embodiments of the present invention described below may be combined with each other as long as they do not collide with each other.
The invention provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the reliability improvement of a power conversion ship of an ocean island to an ocean island group aiming at the fact that the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship of the ocean island to a micro-grid of the ocean island cannot be comprehensively evaluated at present. The method can be used for evaluating the influence of the power conversion ships of the ocean islands and related power conversion properties (the number of the ships, the navigational speed, the cruising distance and the ship destination set) on the reliability of the ocean island micro-grid. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship for the ocean island is an evaluation method for the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship for the ocean island, and the contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of an ocean island micro-grid is evaluated by calculating the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship for the ocean island. The influence of the number of the power conversion ships, the navigational speed, the cruising distance and the ship destination set on the reliability contribution of the ocean island micro-grid group is considered. By calculating the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship, the invention can quantitatively evaluate the improvement degree of the newly added ocean island power conversion ship on the ocean island micro-grid reliability.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating a confidence capacity of a power conversion ship for an ocean island, including the steps of:
s1: basic data of ocean islands are obtained, wherein the basic data comprise the number of islands, the energy composition of each island, the available capacity of each energy and the per-unit value curve, the load value and the per-unit value curve of the load of the power generation time sequence historical output of each energy. The island energy composition comprises any one or more of a wind generating set, a photovoltaic generating set, a fuel oil and gas generating set, an energy storage set, a wave generating set, a tidal generating set and a power conversion ship, and the corresponding per unit value curve of the available capacity and the historical output of the power generation time sequence and the per unit value curve of the load value and the load are respectively as follows: wind generating set available capacity P WindPower,i Available capacity P of photovoltaic generator set PhotovoltaicPower,i Available capacity P of fuel-oil and gas generator set ConventialPower,i Usable capacity P of energy storage unit EnergyStorage,i Usable capacity P of wave generator set WavePower,i Tidal genset available capacity P CurrentPower,i Capacity P of island power conversion ship PEW,i Load value P Load,i The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Per unit value curve P of time sequence history output of wind generating set WindPower_PU,i (t) per unit value curve P of time sequence history output of photovoltaic generator set PhotovoltaicPower_PU,i (t) per unit value curve P of output of fuel gas unit ConventialPower_PU,i (t) the output of the energy storage unitPer unit value curve P EnergyStorage_PU,i (t) per unit value curve P of wave generator set output WavePower_PU,i (t) per unit value curve P of tidal generator set output CurrentPower_PU,i (t) time sequence history power per unit value curve P of power conversion ship PEW_PU,i (t) load history per unit value curve P Load_PU,i (t), where i is the number of islands, for a total of n islands, i=1, 2, …, n; t is a time interval, t=1, 2, …, m, and the time interval is generally based on hours.
S2: calculating a historical famous value curve of each energy source and load in each island of the ocean island group according to the basic data: multiplying the available capacity of each energy source by the per unit value curve of the historical output of the power generation time sequence of each energy source to obtain a historical famous value curve of each energy source; and multiplying the load value by the per unit value curve of the load to obtain a historical famous value curve of the load. The historical nomadic value curves for each energy and load of ocean islands were calculated as follows:
s2.1, historical famous value curve P of wind generating set WindPower_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the generator set in the step S1 WindPower,i (t) time sequence history output per unit value curve P of wind generating set WindPower_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a famous value curve P of the output of the wind generating set of each island WindPower_AV,i (t)；
S2.2, a famous value curve P of output of photovoltaic generator set PhotovoltaicPower_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the photovoltaic generator set in the step S1 PhotovoltaicPower,i Curve P of historical output per unit value of time sequence of photovoltaic generator set PhotovoltaicPower_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a power output famous value curve P of the photovoltaic power generation generator set of each island PhotovoltaicPower_AV,i (t)；
S2.3, a famous value curve P of the fuel gas unit ConventialPower_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the fuel gas unit in the step S1 is set ConventialPower,i And the time sequence history output per unit value curve P of the fuel gas unit ConventialPower_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a famous value curve of the output of the fuel gas generator set of each islandP ConventialPower_AV,i (t)；
S2.4, a famous value curve P of the energy storage unit EnergyStorage_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the energy storage unit in the step S1 EnergyStorage,i And the time sequence history output per unit value curve P of the energy storage unit EnergyStorage_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a famous value curve P of the output force of the energy storage unit of each island EnergyStorage_AV,i (t)；
S2.5, a famous value curve P of the wave generator set WavePower_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the wave generator set in the step S1 WavePower,i And the historical power per unit value curve P of the wave power generation time sequence WavePower_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a famous value curve P of the output of the wave generator set of each island WavePower_AV,i (t)；
S2.6, a famous value curve P of the tidal generator set CurrentPower_AV,i (t): the available capacity P of the tidal power generation unit in the step S1 CurrentPower,i And a time sequence historical output per unit value curve P of the tidal power generation unit CurrentPower_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a current power generation output value curve P of each island CurrentPower_AV,i (t)；
S2.7, a famous value curve P of the power conversion ship PEW_AV,i (t): the capacity P of the ocean island power conversion ship in the step S1 PEW,i Time sequence history power per unit value curve P of ocean island power exchange ship PEW_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a power output famous value curve P of the ocean island power conversion ship of each island PEW_AV,i (t)；
S2.8, famous value curve P of load Load_AV,i (t): loading the annual value of the ocean island described in step S1 with P Load,i A history load per unit value curve P with the ocean island Load_PU,i (t) multiplying to obtain a load-famous-value curve P of each island Load_AV,i (t)。
S3: calculating reliability index R of ocean islands of power conversion ships according to historical famous value curves of each energy source Island_REW The process is as follows: will be for a certain period of time (typically an integer of yearsMultiple standard) are evenly divided into a plurality of time intervals according to the hour, the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources on the ocean island in each time interval is calculated according to the historical famous value curve of each energy source, and the load value in each time interval and the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources are compared, the probability that the load value in the time interval is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources is the reliability index R Island_REW Expressed as the following formula
wherein P is Load Is a load value; p (P) WindPower The available capacity of the wind generating set is used;
P PhotovoltaicPower the available capacity of the photovoltaic generator set is obtained; p (P) ConventialPower The power generation available capacity of the fuel gas unit is used; p (P) WavePower The available capacity of the wave generator set is used; p (P) CurrentPower For tidal power generation available capacity, P PEW Is the capacity of the power exchange ship.
S4: adding a conventional unit in the ocean island, setting a capacity initial value of the conventional unit, and calculating a reliability index R of the ocean island without the power conversion ship and containing the conventional unit according to a historical famous value curve of each energy Island The process is as follows: evenly dividing a certain time period into a plurality of time intervals according to hours, calculating the sum of available capacities of all energy sources which do not contain the power conversion ship on the ocean island in each time interval according to a historical famous value curve of each energy source, and comparing the sum of the capacity of the load in each time interval and the available capacities of all the energy sources, wherein the probability that the load value in the time period is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources is the reliability index R Island Expressed as the following formula
R Island ＝P(P Load ＞P WindPower +P PhotovoltaicPower +P ConventialPower +P WavePower +P CurrentPower +P C ) I.e. representing a load greater than the available capacity of all energy sourcesThe probability of the sum of the quantities,
wherein P is Load Is a load value; p (P) WindPower The available capacity of the wind generating set is used; p (P) PhotovoltaicPower The available capacity of the photovoltaic generator set is obtained; p (P) ConventialPower The power generation available capacity of the fuel gas unit is used; p (P) WavePower The available capacity of the wave generator set is used; p (P) CurrentPower For tidal power generation available capacity, P C Is the capacity of a conventional unit.
S5: calculating a reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is larger than the set value, updating the capacity of the conventional unit and calculating the reliability index R again Island Standard up to reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is smaller than or equal to the set value, the reliability index R is recorded Island_REW And reliability index R Island And when the absolute value of the difference is smaller than or equal to a set value, the conventional unit capacity is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship. Wherein, the capacity of the conventional unit is updated in the reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island When the absolute value of the difference value does not meet the requirement, the capacity of the conventional unit is increased by a certain capacity step length (such as 0.1 MW) from the initial value, and the reliability index R is calculated once every time the capacity is increased Island Up to a reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island And ending updating when the absolute value of the difference value meets the requirement.
In the scheme, the calculation process of the per unit value curve of the power conversion ship in the ocean island comprises the following steps of:
1) Establishing a power conversion attribute model of the power conversion ship;
2) Inputting probability distribution, charge and discharge conditions of starting time, running time and running distance of the power conversion ship in the power conversion attribute model;
3) Determining an initial state of a power conversion attribute in the power conversion attribute model;
4) And generating a sample value which obeys corresponding distribution according to the characteristic value of the travel behavior of the power conversion ship, combining the load demand of the ocean island micro-grid, and generating a per unit value curve of the ocean island power conversion ship by adopting Monte Carlo simulation.
In the scheme, the method also comprises the step of calculating the capacity confidence coefficient C of the ocean island electricity conversion ship CCR_PEW ：
Wherein C is CC_PEW Confidence capacity for ocean island power conversion vessel, C Rated_PEW The power supply system is characterized in that the power supply system can accurately know the efficiency of the ocean island power conversion ship according to the capacity confidence coefficient of the ocean island power conversion ship for the installed capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship, so that the power supply condition of an ocean island micro-grid can be planned better.
The basic principle of the confidence capacity assessment method for the ocean island power conversion ship of the invention is described in detail with reference to fig. 1:
(1) The contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of the ocean island is quantitatively evaluated aiming at the ocean island micro-grid containing the power conversion ship. The charge-discharge characteristics of the power conversion ship are not only determined by the installation capacity and the charge state of the stored energy in the power conversion ship, but also influenced by other factors (the number of ships, the navigational speed, the cruising distance and the ship destination set), and the available capacity of the power conversion ship is determined by the number of ships connected with the micro-grid by the power conversion ship, the navigational speed of each ship, the cruising distance of the ship and the ship destination set. Currently, the contribution of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation to the reliability of a power system is generally evaluated by adopting a confidence capacity, and the confidence capacity of the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation is generally influenced only by wind speed or illumination and failure rates of a wind generating set and a photovoltaic generating set, so that the confidence capacity of a power conversion ship of an ocean island cannot be evaluated by the evaluation method. The contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of the ocean island depends on the power generation output time sequence, the load time sequence and the power conversion characteristic of the ocean island micro-grid, the method calculates the confidence capacity index of the power conversion ship of the ocean island, the index considers the power generation output time sequence, the load time sequence and the power conversion characteristic of the power conversion ship, and the contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of the ocean island micro-grid can be measured through the confidence capacity index of the power conversion ship, so the method is established.
(2) For the evaluation of the power supply reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid in the scheme, if the power conversion ship in fig. 1 is used for evaluating the contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid reliability, firstly, basic data of ocean island groups are obtained, wherein the basic data comprise renewable resource reserves of islands of the islands, types and numbers of various power storage ships equipped by the islands, ship starting moments, the existing renewable energy configuration capacity and reliability parameters of the islands, energy storage configuration capacity and reliability parameters and the configuration capacity and reliability parameters of a conventional gas-fuel unit; second, calculating the reliability index R of the ocean island group containing the power conversion ship Island_PEW The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Thirdly, accessing the conventional unit into an ocean island group system, setting an initial value of the capacity of the conventional unit, and calculating a reliability index R of the ocean island group without the power conversion ship and with the conventional unit Island The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Fourth, judging whether the capacity of the conventional unit is changed to meet the confidence capacity calculation convergence condition set by the system, and when the capacity of the conventional unit is not met the calculation convergence condition, updating the capacity of the conventional unit and recalculating the reliability index R Island And when the capacity of the conventional unit meets the calculation convergence condition, finishing calculation, wherein the capacity value of the conventional unit is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship. The above calculation of the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship of the ocean island considers the power conversion characteristics (the number of ships, the navigational speed, the cruising distance and the ship destination set) of the power conversion ship to evaluate the contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of the ocean island micro-grid, and the conventional evaluation method of the confidence capacity of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation cannot evaluate the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship, so the method is established.
In summary, as long as the problem of quantitative evaluation of the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid exists, the influence of each power conversion attribute of the power conversion ship on the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid needs to be considered.
The evaluation method for the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid by adopting the scheme has the following remarkable advantages and beneficial effects:
(1) Based on the reliability evaluation of the original island micro-grid, the contribution of the power conversion ship to the reliability of the island micro-grid is considered, so that the available capacity of the power conversion ship can be listed in the island micro-grid planning, the standby capacity configuration level of the island micro-grid is reduced, and the waste of the standby capacity of the island is avoided; (2) The method comprehensively measures the charge and discharge characteristics of the ocean island power conversion ship and objectively evaluates the available capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship; (3) The evaluation method comprehensively considers the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid, and solves the problem of spare capacity configuration of the ocean island micro-grid under the influence of the power conversion ship.
The specific evaluation model for executing the method of the invention can be used for evaluating the reliability of the result of the ocean island micro-grid planning as a component part of the ocean island micro-grid planning model, and can also be used for evaluating the contribution of the ocean island power exchange ship to the ocean island micro-grid reliability as the evaluation of the confidence capacity of the ocean island power exchange ship. Existing methods of assessing confidence capacity for renewable energy sources include ELCC methods, EDC methods, and the like.
The invention adopts the Monte Carlo method to realize the quantitative evaluation of the reliability contribution of the power conversion ship to the ocean island micro-grid on the basis of analyzing the existing method.
Referring to fig. 1, the invention is applied to evaluation of reliability contribution of a power conversion ship to an ocean island micro-grid. The ocean island micro-grid construction planning should consider the influence of the capacity of the power conversion ship on the reliability of the ocean island micro-grid, the assessment of the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship has the following known conditions, and basic data of ocean island groups are obtained, wherein the basic data comprise renewable resource reserves of each island, the types and the numbers of various power conversion ships equipped in each island, the time of ship starting, the configuration capacity and the reliability parameters of the existing renewable energy sources of each island, the energy storage configuration capacity and the reliability parameters, and the configuration capacity and the reliability parameters of a conventional gas-fuel unit. Fig. 1 is an illustration of ocean islands including a power conversion ship, wherein the ocean island group comprises four ocean islands including an ocean island 1, an ocean island 2, an ocean island 3 and an ocean island 4, and wind power generation units, photovoltaic power generation units, wave power generation units, tide power generation units, gas and fuel power generation units and energy storage units are arranged on the four ocean islands. Taking the ocean island with the electricity conversion ship as an example in fig. 1, the confidence capacity of the electricity conversion ship of the ocean island can be calculated.
According to the basic data of the ocean island containing the power conversion ship, the confidence capacity value of the power conversion ship of the system can be obtained through a calculation formula of the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship of the ocean island, and the contribution of the power conversion ship of the system to the reliability of the ocean island micro-grid can be estimated according to the confidence capacity of the power conversion ship of the ocean island.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions easily contemplated by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention. What is not described in detail in this specification is prior art known to those skilled in the art.
Claims (6)
1. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of the ocean island electricity conversion ship is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the method comprises the following steps:
s1: acquiring basic data of an ocean island, and calculating a historical nomadic value curve of each energy source and load in the ocean island according to the basic data;
s2: calculating reliability index R of ocean islands of power conversion ships according to historical famous value curves of various energy sources and loads Island_REW ；
S3: adding a conventional unit in an ocean island, setting a capacity initial value of the conventional unit, and calculating the conventional unit of the ship without power conversion according to the historical famous value curves of each energy and loadReliability index R of ocean island of unit Island ；
S4: calculating a reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is larger than the set value, updating the capacity of the conventional unit and calculating the reliability index R again Island Standard up to reliability index R Island_REW And reliability index R Island If the absolute value of the difference is smaller than or equal to the set value, the reliability index R is recorded Island_REW And reliability index R Island The conventional unit capacity when the absolute value of the difference value is smaller than or equal to a set value is the confidence capacity of the ocean island power conversion ship;
multiplying the available capacity of each energy source by the per unit value curve of the historical output of the power generation time sequence of each energy source to obtain a historical famous value curve of each energy source; multiplying the load value by the per unit value curve of the load to obtain a historical famous value curve of the load;
the calculation process of the per unit value curve of the power conversion ship in the ocean island comprises the following steps:
1) Establishing a power conversion attribute model of the power conversion ship;
2) Inputting probability distribution, charge and discharge conditions of starting time, running time and running distance of the power conversion ship in the power conversion attribute model;
3) Determining an initial state of a power conversion attribute in the power conversion attribute model;
4) And generating a sample value which obeys corresponding distribution according to the characteristic value of the travel behavior of the power conversion ship, combining the load demand of the ocean island micro-grid, and generating a per unit value curve of the ocean island power conversion ship by adopting Monte Carlo simulation.
2. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean-going island battery-change vessel according to claim 1, wherein: the basic data of the ocean islands comprise the number of islands, the energy composition of each island, the available capacity of each energy and the per unit value curve, the load value and the per unit value curve of the load of the historical output of the power generation time sequence of each energy.
3. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean-going island battery-change vessel according to claim 2, wherein: the island energy source comprises any one or more of a wind generating set, a photovoltaic generating set, an oil and gas generating set, an energy storage set, a wave generating set, a tidal generating set and a power conversion ship.
4. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean-going island battery-change vessel according to claim 1, wherein the reliability index R Island_REW The calculation process of (1) is as follows: evenly dividing a certain time period into a plurality of time intervals according to the hours, calculating the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources on the ocean island in each time interval according to the historical famous value curve of each energy source, and comparing the load value in each time interval with the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources, wherein the probability that the load value in the time period is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources is the reliability index R Island_REW 。
5. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean-going island battery-change vessel according to claim 1, wherein the reliability index R Island The calculation process of (1) is as follows: evenly dividing a certain time period into a plurality of time intervals according to hours, calculating the sum of available capacities of all energy sources which do not contain the power conversion ship on the ocean island in each time interval according to a historical famous value curve of each energy source, and comparing the sum of the available capacities of the load value and all the energy sources in each time interval, wherein the probability that the load value is larger than the sum of the available capacities of all the energy sources in the time period is the reliability index R Island 。
6. The method for evaluating the confidence capacity of an ocean-going island battery-operated vessel according to claim 1, further comprising calculating a confidence level C of the capacity of the ocean-going island battery-operated vessel CCR_PEW ：
Wherein C is CC_PEW Confidence capacity for ocean island power conversion vessel, C Rated_PEW The installed capacity of the ocean island power exchange ship is used.
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