CN111401727A - Visual expression method for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock - Google Patents
Visual expression method for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a visual expression method for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock, which comprises the following steps: s1, selecting a substitute index of snow disaster and grassland animal husbandry economy by taking the snow disaster as an input and interference item and taking the grassland animal husbandry economy main quantity value as an output and effect result item; s2, checking the stationarity of the time sequence by using a unit root checking method; s3, checking and determining the optimal lag phase of the vector autoregressive model; s4, determining the stable and causal relationship among a plurality of variables of the vector autoregressive model by using a co-integration test method and a Glandoy test method; s5, constructing a vector autoregressive model of the economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock through steps S1, S2, S3 and S4; s6, establishing an impulse response diagram and a variance decomposition diagram by using the vector autoregressive model of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect constructed in the step S5, and visually expressing the conduction effect of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic through the impulse response diagram and the variance decomposition diagram.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ecological environment and economic development, in particular to a visual expression method for the economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland farming.
Background
The snow cover disasters frequently occurring in high altitude areas not only frequently and seriously create the livelihood of vast herdsmen with strong dependence on grassland animal husbandry, but also bring great harm to plateau economy taking the grassland animal husbandry as the leading factor. Once snow disaster occurs, impact with different degrees is generated on plateau grassland animal husbandry economy, the impact causes the scale of the originally fragile grassland animal husbandry economy to shrink, increase and slow down, gradually increase descending risks, and the prospect is more uncertain. The method is characterized in that the interaction process between snow disaster impact and livestock economic response is discussed, the conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock economy is analyzed by utilizing numerical simulation, the conduction process and the effect are visually presented, the method is an important scientific problem for deeply understanding the inherent association rule of disaster input and economic effect output, and the method is an important decision tool for comprehensively controlling the snow disaster conduction growth process, inhibiting the negative conduction effect and promoting the sustainable development of the highland grassland livestock economy.
Since ancient times, China is a country in which natural disasters frequently occur, and particularly, plateau areas such as Qinghai province, Tibet autonomous region, inner Mongolia autonomous region and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region are one of the most serious areas of snow disasters. Due to the special geographical environments of high average altitude, low annual average temperature, long severe cold time, less precipitation, strong radiation, large evaporation, short plant growth time and the like of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, the grassland stockbreeding civilization which is born for thousands of years and is suitable for the environment is repeatedly invaded by natural disasters mainly including snow disasters, and the fragility of grassland stockbreeding economy is more prominent. In recent years, particularly, the 'action frame of war banks' has passed through, the research on the influence of snow disaster on grassland animal husbandry has received great attention from the national and foreign academic communities, and related documents are emerging continuously.
From the research trend, the shift from single element to comprehensive analysis is an important characteristic of the relation research of the snow disaster and the animal husbandry, and the complexity of the influence, driving and recovery process of the snow disaster on the animal husbandry is determined due to the complexity of the interrelation between herdsman, livestock, animal husbandry, health and development, just as the complex of the social-ecological system interaction emphasized by many scholars such as Shinoda and Morinaga, Tachiiri, Fern' e-r-Gim en z, L iu and the like, the snow disaster in the pasturing area is considered to be the comprehensive reflection of the multidimensional factors such as nature, ecology, society, economy and system.
The snow disaster damage estimation by using property loss insurance data is a commonly used international method, a remote sensing technology and meteorological observation are combined to provide a new means for snow disaster monitoring, estimation and risk analysis since the 90 th century, students such as Tachiiri and the like develop a tree-shaped analysis model by adopting NDVI, equivalent snow water, livestock stock pens and livestock mortality indexes according to remote sensing data for estimating the snow disaster risk in a pastoral area, L iu and the like construct a snow disaster risk estimation index system from the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and response capacity, divide the snow disaster risk level in a Qinghai-Tibet pastoral area, reveal the snow disaster risk space law in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau pastoral area, and in addition, an artificial neural network analysis method also has more applications in the snow disaster risk estimation.
Although scholars at home and abroad deeply research the relation between snow disaster and grassland animal husbandry, structural effect characteristics and dynamic laws of conduction process, conduction direction, conduction contribution and the like of grassland animal husbandry economy (increased value of animal husbandry and animal product yield) by different substitute indexes of snow disaster are explored, a large cognitive gap exists in the method, and an obvious practical short board exists in the expression. In order to reduce the cognitive gap and overcome the obvious existing practice shortages, the numerical simulation of the conduction effect of the snow disaster on the plateau grassland animal husbandry economy and the research of an image expression method need to be enhanced, so that the sustainable development of the alpine grassland animal husbandry economy is practically and effectively served.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems and provides a visual expression method for deepening visual understanding of negative effects of human beings on the snow disaster on the plateau and the grassland farming economic conduction effect.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a visual expression method for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock comprises the following steps:
s1, selecting a substitute index of snow disaster and grassland animal husbandry economy by taking the snow disaster as an input and interference item and taking the grassland animal husbandry economy main quantity value as an output and effect result item;
s2, checking the stationarity of the time sequence by using a unit root checking method;
s3, checking and determining the optimal lag phase of the vector autoregressive model;
s4, determining the stable and causal relationship among a plurality of variables of the vector autoregressive model by using a co-integration test method and a Glandoy test method;
s5, constructing a vector autoregressive model of the economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock through steps S1, S2, S3 and S4;
s6, establishing an impulse response diagram and a variance decomposition diagram by using the vector autoregressive model of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect constructed in the step S5, and visually expressing the conduction effect of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic through the impulse response diagram and the variance decomposition diagram.
Further, the snow disaster substitute index in step S1 is the number of snow accumulation days, average snow depth, and snow disaster frequency; the economic substitute indexes of grassland livestock raising include the increase value of the livestock raising industry, the beef and mutton yield and the beef and mutton milk yield.
Further, in the step S4, a Johansen co-integration test method is used to determine whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists among a plurality of variables of the vector autoregressive model; the Granger causal test method is used to determine whether a change in a causal variable causes a change in an outcome variable.
Further, in step S5, the vector autoregressive model expression of the conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland farming economy is:
wherein, yit＝(aav,mep,mip,scd,sch,sdf)，yitThe expression y is a composite function of the variable i and the time t, and aav represents the animal husbandry increase value corresponding to the t period; mep represents the beef and mutton yield corresponding to the t period; mip represents the milk yield of the cattle and sheep corresponding to the t period; scd represents the accumulated snow days corresponding to the t period; sch represents the average snow depth corresponding to the t period; sdf represents the snow disaster frequency corresponding to the t period; a. theiA coefficient vector representing a corresponding variable i; p represents the hysteresis order of the vector autoregressive model;itan error term representing the variable i corresponding to the t period; diRepresenting exogenous variables.
Further, in step S5, an impulse response graph is established through an impulse response module in the eviews10.0 software; an analysis of variance graph is established by the analysis of variance module in the eviews10.0 software.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages and positive effects that:
(1) the visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect fully exerts the advantages of the vector autoregressive model, quantitatively represents the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect, solves the problems of the complicated chain reaction process and characteristic analysis of the complex climate change-snow disaster-grassland animal husbandry economic system, overcomes the defect that the traditional economic model is insufficient in estimation of natural disaster disturbance factors, avoids the complicated conduction process in the traditional economic model, and highlights the interaction and conduction characteristics between snow disaster input and animal husbandry economic output.
(2) The visual expression method of the snow disaster to the grassland farming economy conduction effect displays the response of the grassland farming economy to the snow disaster impact through the impulse response, visually displays the dynamic interaction process of the snow disaster disturbance variable to the plateau grassland farming economy and the conduction effect, obviously improves the accurate judgment degree of the human to the snow disaster effect, and improves the snow disaster prevention and control capacity and the animal husbandry persistence level.
(3) The visual expression method of the economic conduction effect of the snow disaster on the grassland farming can be applied to quantitative analysis, process study and judgment, dynamic monitoring and scene estimation of the economic conduction effect of the snow disaster on the grassland farming; the method can also be applied to the conduction process revelation and image expression of grassland animal husbandry economy by different natural disaster types, different natural or artificial impacts, and has extremely high practical value.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the frame of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph of the conductive effect of a surrogate index of pasture farming economy on the pasture farming economy itself;
FIG. 3 is a graph of the conducted effect of annual average days of snow on grassland zootechnics;
FIG. 4 is a graph of the conduction effect of average snow depth on grassland zootechnics;
FIG. 5 is a graph of the conducted effect of snow disaster frequency on grassland farming economy;
FIG. 6 is a visual representation of the contribution of snow disaster to the increased value transmission of animal husbandry;
FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the intuitive expression of the contribution of snow disaster to the conduction of beef and mutton yields;
FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the intuitive expression of the contribution of snow disaster to the conduction of milk production of cattle and sheep.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived from the embodiments of the present invention by a person skilled in the art without any creative effort, should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
The method takes snow disaster as an input variable, main indexes of the livestock economy in the alpine grassland are taken as output variables, and a conduction effect model between the snow disaster and the livestock economy is established on the basis of a vector autoregressive function, so that image expression from the snow disaster to the response of the livestock economy system is realized, the visual understanding of negative effects of human beings on the highland snow disaster is deepened, the pre-judging, preventing and controlling capabilities of the human beings on the snow disaster are improved, and the aim of sustainable development of the grassland livestock husbandry in the plateau cold area is served.
1. Analysis framework for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock raising
The method quantifies the reaction efficiency of the highland grassland animal husbandry economy on the snow disaster as an important link of a conduction mechanism through model characterization and image expression, is an important scale for improving the cognitive ability, prevention and control ability of the highland snow disaster by human beings and determines the realization degree of the important target of the sustainable development of the grassland animal husbandry. The method comprises the steps of taking the snow disaster in the plateau as an input and interference item, taking the grassland animal husbandry economic main quantity value as an output and effect result item (an input-output module), establishing a relation function of the snow disaster and the grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect according to a vector autoregressive equation, carrying out structural and process analysis (a conduction effect expression module) of the snow disaster conduction effect through a qualified vector autoregressive model (a VAR model) (a model inspection module), and outputting a corresponding image to realize a visual expression target of the snow disaster on the grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect (as shown in figure 1).
2. Vector autoregressive model of economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock
The vector autoregressive model (VAR model) has pertinence in predicting time sequence and analyzing the dynamic influence of random disturbance on endogenous variables when being used for analyzing the conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland animal husbandry economy.
After the stationarity test, the multivariate stability relationship test and the multivariate causal relationship test of time series variables are carried out, the expression of the VAR model is as follows:
wherein, yit＝(aav,mep,mip,scd,sch,sdf)，yitThe expression y is a complex function of the variable i and the time t, respectively representing the time period tCorresponding animal husbandry increase value (aav), beef and mutton yield (mep), beef and mutton milk yield (mip), annual average snow days (scd), average snow depth (sch) and snow frequency (sdf); a. theiA coefficient vector representing a corresponding variable i; p is the hysteresis order of the model;itis the error term of variable i corresponding to the t period; diRefers to exogenous variables, here constant terms.
3. Visual expression of economic transmission direction and contribution of snow disaster to grassland farming
By utilizing the established VAR model and by means of a pulse analysis and variance decomposition analysis module in Eviews10.0 software, the direction and contribution of the snow disaster to the economic conduction effect of plateau grassland pasture farming are visually expressed.
The method comprises the following specific implementation steps:
step 1: selection of economic key substitute indexes for snow disaster and grassland livestock raising
In snow disaster, three key substitute variables of snow accumulation days, average snow depth and snow disaster frequency (snow disaster events) are selected; the increase value of the animal husbandry, the yield of beef and mutton and the yield of beef and mutton milk are selected as key substitute indexes of the grassland animal husbandry economy, and the conduction effect of snow disasters on the plateau grassland animal husbandry economy during the period of 1984-2014 is respectively examined. In order to reduce the influence caused by the severe fluctuation of data of each time series, the variables are subjected to logarithmic processing.
Step 2: testing the stationarity of time series variables by using a unit root test method
The stationarity of the time series refers to the statistical characteristics of the time series, including mean, variance, covariance, etc., which do not change with the movement of time. To avoid pseudo-regression, a unit root test was performed on the time series to investigate the stationarity of the data and the single integer order (the number of times the sequence was smoothed and differentiated).
And 3, step 3: determining the optimal lag phase of the vector autoregressive model by using an information criterion method
The specific test method comprises the steps of comparing the sizes of criterion values by using information criteria of AIC (red pool), SC (Schwarz), HQ (Hannan-Quinu) and FPE (final prediction error), and visually judging the optimal lag period, and testing the original hypothesis from the maximum lag order according to L R (likelihood ratio test statistic).
And 4, step 4: determining the stability and causal relationship between multiple variables of vector autoregressive model by using the method of co-integration test and the Greenwich Diego test
And judging whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists among the vector autoregressive model multivariants by utilizing Johansen cooperation test. And judging whether the change of the cause variable causes the change of the result variable by using a Granger test.
And 5, step 5: vector autoregressive model for constructing economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock
After the test, the expression of the VAR model of the economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock is as follows:
wherein, yit＝(aav,mep,mip,scd,sch,sdf)，yitY is a composite function of the variable i and the time t, and symbols in brackets respectively represent the animal husbandry increase value (aav), the beef and mutton yield (mep), the beef and mutton milk yield (mip), the annual average snow number (scd), the average snow depth (sch) and the snow disaster frequency (sdf) corresponding to the t period; a. theiA coefficient vector representing a corresponding variable i; p is the hysteresis order of the model;itis the error term of variable i corresponding to the t period; diRefers to exogenous variables, here constant terms.
And 6, step 6: conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland animal husbandry economy is visually expressed by means of images
By utilizing the established VAR model and by means of an impulse response and variance decomposition analysis functional module in Eviews10.0 software, the direction and the contribution of the snow disaster to the economic conduction effect of the plateau grassland pasture farming are graphically expressed.
Application example
Yangtze river and yellow river source (river source) located in the abdominal area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau, average altitude over 4000m, and basin area 7.46 × l04km2With typical inland plateau climatic features, nearly half a worldThe temperature rise range is obviously higher than that of the whole country, and the uncertainty of the change of meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation and the like greatly improves the possibility of the occurrence of meteorological disasters. The annual accumulated snow depth fluctuation range is enlarged, the annual change irregularity of the amount of the accumulated snow is enhanced, the snow disaster occurrence frequency is high, the snow disaster frequency in the source area reaches 62 percent in nearly 60 years, and the snow disaster severity reaches 50 percent. The river source area is one of the main high and cold pasturing areas in China, the specific gravity of the population of the herdsman is large, the dependence of the herdsman on the grassland animal husbandry and the grassland animal products is strong, and snow disasters profoundly affect the sustainable development of the grassland animal husbandry in the source area and the sustainable livelihood of the herdsman.
(1) Visual expression of economic transmission direction of grassland farming in snow disaster
Fig. 2 shows the conduction effect of the grass farming economy surrogate marker itself on grass farming economy, and the left, middle and right columns 3 of fig. 3, 4 and 5 respectively show the influence of the annual average snow days (scd), the average snow depth (sch), the snow frequency (sdf) change on the animal husbandry increase value (aav), the beef and mutton yield (mep) and the beef and mutton milk yield (mip). The abscissa is the estimated period (unit: year) of the conduction effect, the ordinate is the change rate and direction of the conduction effect, the gray dotted line in the graph represents the change range of the zootechnical economic conduction effect under 2 times of impact, and the black solid line represents the reaction change path of each variable sequence to one standard deviation impact.
Fig. 3 shows the effect of the change of the annual average number of snow days (scd) on the grassland animal economy, the annual average number of snow days has a negative conduction effect on the animal husbandry increment in the periods 1-2, has a positive conduction effect in the periods 3-5, and shows a negative effect after the period 5, and the situation gradually weakens, so that it can be seen that the negative effect on the animal husbandry increment is larger in the initial stage of snowfall in the river source area, but the anti-freezing and warm-keeping measures are promoted along with the increase of the annual average number of snow days, the annual average number of snow days has a positive effect on the increase of the animal husbandry increment, but shows a negative effect from the period 5; the feed has negative conduction effect on the beef and mutton yield, the influence is large in the initial stage, and after the 5 th stage, the conduction effect is gradually weakened; the milk yield of the cattle and sheep also shows a more obvious negative conduction effect, the conduction effect is reduced from 1.5 to the lowest point, and the conduction effect is basically close to 0 after 2.5.
Fig. 4 shows the conduction effect of the average snow depth (sch) variation on the grassland zootechnical economy, with the impact of the average snow depth on the stockbreeding increase being a negative conduction effect during phase 1, positive fluctuations occurring during phases 2-3, and reaching a high value during phase 2, with the impact again being converted into a negative effect during phases 3-5, and subsequently showing a wave-weakening situation. The impact of average snow depth on beef and mutton production always shows negative conduction effect, and after 5 th stage, the conduction effect tends to be 0. The conduction of the average snow depth to the milk yield of the cattle and sheep is negative before the 1.5 period, and the weak positive effect is shown in the 1.5-15 periods, which shows that the milk yield of grassland livestock can be improved by maintaining the snow depth to a certain degree.
Fig. 5 shows the conduction effect of snow disaster frequency (sdf) change on grassland animal husbandry economy, the impact of snow disaster frequency change on animal husbandry increase value is in 2.5-5 th period, the impact of snow disaster frequency change on cow and sheep milk yield is weak in 3 rd to 5 th period, the impact of snow disaster frequency change on 3 indexes of grassland animal husbandry economy is negative effect, basically, the impact is large in 1 st to 5 th period, and the effect gradually weakens and tends to be stable after 5 th period.
(2) Visual expression of contribution of snow disaster to economic conduction of livestock raising
As can be seen from FIG. 6, the change of the animal husbandry increment value is explained by the change of the animal husbandry increment value by more than 70%, and the contribution degree of the annual average accumulated snow days to the impact of the animal husbandry increment value is about 6%; the contribution degree of the average snow depth is about 15%, and the contribution degree of the snow disaster frequency is about 7%, so that the influence of the average snow depth on the increase value of the animal husbandry is most obvious except for self factors. As can be seen from FIG. 7, the impact of the variables of the annual average snow days, the average snow depth and the snow disaster frequency on the beef and mutton yield shows a stable long-term trend, wherein the contribution degree of the annual average snow days on the beef and mutton yield impact is more than 13%; the contribution degree of the average snow depth is basically about 9%, and the contribution degree of the snow disaster frequency is about 1%. Therefore, the influence degree of the annual average accumulated snow days on the beef and mutton yield is not ignored. As shown in fig. 8, the annual average number of accumulated snow days has a large influence on the milk yield of cattle and sheep, the contribution degree is about 28%, and the contribution degrees of the average snow depth and the snow disaster frequency to the milk yield impact of cattle and sheep are 9% and 7% respectively.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect fully exerts the advantages of the vector autoregressive model, quantitatively represents the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect, solves the problems of the complicated chain reaction process and characteristic analysis of the complex climate change-snow disaster-grassland animal husbandry economic system, overcomes the defect that the traditional economic model is insufficient in estimation of natural disaster disturbance factors, avoids the complicated conduction process in the traditional economic model, and highlights the interaction and conduction characteristics between snow disaster input and animal husbandry economic output.
2. The visual expression method of the snow disaster to the grassland farming economy conduction effect displays the response of the grassland farming economy to the snow disaster impact through the impulse response, visually displays the dynamic interaction process of the snow disaster disturbance variable to the plateau grassland farming economy and the conduction effect, obviously improves the accurate judgment degree of the human to the snow disaster effect, and improves the snow disaster prevention and control capacity and the animal husbandry persistence level.
3. The visual expression method of the economic conduction effect of the snow disaster on the grassland farming can be applied to quantitative analysis, process study and judgment, dynamic monitoring and scene estimation of the economic conduction effect of the snow disaster on the grassland farming; the method can also be applied to the conduction process revelation and image expression of grassland animal husbandry economy by different natural disaster types, different natural or artificial impacts, and has extremely high practical value.
Claims (5)
1. A visual expression method for economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, selecting a substitute index of snow disaster and grassland animal husbandry economy by taking the snow disaster as an input and interference item and taking the grassland animal husbandry economy main quantity value as an output and effect result item;
s2, checking the stationarity of the time sequence by using a unit root checking method;
s3, checking and determining the optimal lag phase of the vector autoregressive model;
s4, determining the stable and causal relationship among a plurality of variables of the vector autoregressive model by using a co-integration test method and a Glandoy test method;
s5, constructing a vector autoregressive model of the economic conduction effect of snow disaster on grassland livestock through steps S1, S2, S3 and S4;
s6, establishing an impulse response diagram and a variance decomposition diagram by using the vector autoregressive model of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic conduction effect constructed in the step S5, and visually expressing the conduction effect of the snow disaster to grassland animal husbandry economic through the impulse response diagram and the variance decomposition diagram.
2. The visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland farming economic transmission effect as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the snow disaster substitute indexes in the step S1 are snow accumulation days, average snow depth and snow disaster frequency; the economic substitute indexes of grassland livestock are grassland livestock industry increase value, beef and mutton yield and beef and mutton milk yield.
3. The visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland farming economic transmission effect as claimed in claim 2, wherein: in the step S4, a Johansen cooperation test method is used to determine whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists among a plurality of variables of the vector autoregressive model; the Granger causal test method is used to determine whether a change in a causal variable causes a change in an outcome variable.
4. The visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland farming economic transmission effect as claimed in claim 3, wherein: in the step S5, the vector autoregressive model expression of the economic conduction effect of the snow disaster on the grassland farming is as follows:
wherein, yit＝(aav,mep,mip,scd,sch,sdf)，yitThe expression y is a composite function of the variable i and the time t, and aav represents the animal husbandry increase value corresponding to the t period; mep represents the beef and mutton yield corresponding to the t period; mip represents the milk yield of the cattle and sheep corresponding to the t period; sc (sc)d represents the accumulated snow days corresponding to the t period; sch represents the average snow depth corresponding to the t period; sdf represents the snow disaster frequency corresponding to the t period; a. theiA coefficient vector representing a corresponding variable i; p represents the hysteresis order of the vector autoregressive model;itan error term representing the variable i corresponding to the t period; diRepresenting exogenous variables.
5. The visual expression method of the snow disaster to grassland farming economic transmission effect as claimed in claim 4, wherein: in the step S5, an impulse response graph is established through an impulse response module in the eviews10.0 software; an analysis of variance graph is established by the analysis of variance module in the eviews10.0 software.
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