CN111401669A - Shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on wavelet neural network - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network, which comprises the following steps of: dividing the sample into a training sample and a test sample; determining input parameters and output parameters, and carrying out normalization processing on the input parameters; calculating the error between the predicted network output and the expected output; correcting the network weight and the wavelet function parameters, and continuing to calculate and predict the network output until the error meets the requirement; testing the network prediction precision by using a test sample; and predicting the flow-back rate by using the trained wavelet neural network. The prediction method has stronger learning ability, faster convergence speed and higher precision; meanwhile, the invention takes geological parameters, engineering parameters and flowback system into consideration, and better accords with the characteristics of shale oil reservoir development.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas field development, in particular to a shale oil pressure back flow rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network.
Background
At present, the development of conventional oil and gas reservoirs is almost carried out, the center of gravity of oil and gas exploration in the world is changed from conventional oil and gas to unconventional oil and gas, and the key point of the global petroleum industry is also changed to unconventional oil and gas. Unconventional hydrocarbons include shale hydrocarbons, coal bed gases, and tight hydrocarbons. In China, the shale oil reserves are rich, and the recoverable resource amount is about 160 hundred million tons, so that the development of shale oil resources has great significance for guaranteeing the energy supply safety of China and optimizing the energy consumption structure of China.
Different from the conventional oil and gas resource development mode, the technology for efficiently developing the shale oil mainly comprises horizontal well subsection clustering fracturing, namely, 'smashing' a reservoir body as far as possible to form a complex fracture network, so that the flow resistance of crude oil entering a well is reduced. After shale oil is fractured, the shale oil is generally stewed for a period of time and then is flowback, the shale oil well is found to have the optimal flowback rate in the field production process, and the optimal flowback rate is achieved, so that the oil yield of the shale oil well can be maximized. Therefore, it is very important to predict the flowback rate after shale oil pressure.
The current prediction methods of the flow-back rate after pressing mainly comprise a numerical simulation method and a machine learning method. The numerical simulation method calculates through a discrete seepage differential equation, can take geological factors into account well, but the efficiency is low. The machine learning method has the characteristic of high efficiency, but mainly aims at conventional oil gas, and even aims at shale oil gas, the consideration factor is incomplete, so that the problem of large error of a prediction result is caused.
Therefore, a method specially aiming at predicting the shale oil pressure after-flow rate is needed, the method should be matched with shale oil geological features and development features as much as possible, and the method should be efficient in the prediction process.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network aiming at the defects in the prior art, and the method is used for solving the problems of low efficiency of a prediction process and large error of a prediction result in the conventional shale oil pressure post-flowback rate method.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems comprises the following contents:
a shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network comprises the following steps:
A. determining a sample, and dividing the sample into a training sample and a test sample;
B. taking geological parameters, engineering parameters and a flowback system as input parameters of a wavelet neural network, taking a flowback rate as an output parameter of the wavelet neural network, and carrying out normalization processing on the input parameters;
C. inputting the input parameters after the training samples are normalized into a network, calculating and predicting network output, and further calculating the error between the predicted network output and expected output;
D. according to the error correction network weight and the wavelet function parameters, continuously calculating and predicting network output until the error meets the requirement;
E. testing the network prediction precision by using a test sample;
F. and predicting the flow-back rate by using the trained wavelet neural network.
Further, the geological parameters include permeability, porosity, oil saturation, elastic modulus, poisson's ratio, pore pressure, reservoir thickness, water sensitive mineral content, natural fracture density, natural fracture openness.
Further, the engineering parameters include construction scale, construction displacement, construction sand ratio, crack length and horizontal segment length.
Further, the back-flow system comprises the soaking time and the size of a back-flow oil nozzle.
Further, the normalization method is standard deviation normalization, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the input parameters after the normalization, the parameters are,x 0 in order to be the input parameters before normalization,is the average of the input parameters before normalization,is the standard deviation of the input parameter before normalization.
Further, the wavelet neural network comprises an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, wherein the number of nodes of the input layer and the output layer is respectively the number of the input parameters and the output parameters of the samples, and the calculation formula of the number of nodes of the hidden layer is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Nin order to imply the number of nodes in the layer,nthe number of the nodes of the input layer is,mthe number of the output layer nodes is,c、dthe values are 1.6799 and 0.9298 respectively for empirical constants.
Further, the wavelet basis function in the wavelet neural network is a Marr function, and specifically includes:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,in order to be a basis function of the wavelet,xis an independent variable.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method is based on wavelet neural network prediction, and the wavelet neural network is determined according to wavelet analysis theory, so that blindness in structural design of other neural networks can be effectively avoided; and secondly, the wavelet neural network has stronger learning ability, faster convergence speed and higher precision. Meanwhile, the invention takes geological parameters, engineering parameters and flowback system into consideration, and better accords with the characteristics of shale oil reservoir development. In conclusion, the shale oil pressure back-flow rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network has the characteristics of high efficiency and accuracy.
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FIG. 1 is a schematic overall flow diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a wavelet neural network in the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to the following examples, which should be construed as merely illustrative and explanatory of the present invention and not restrictive thereof.
A shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network comprises the following steps:
A. determining a sample, and dividing the sample into a training sample and a test sample;
B. taking geological parameters, engineering parameters and a flowback system as input parameters of a wavelet neural network, taking a flowback rate as an output parameter of the wavelet neural network, and carrying out normalization processing on the input parameters;
C. inputting the input parameters after the training samples are normalized into a network, calculating and predicting network output, and further calculating the error between the predicted network output and expected output;
D. according to the error correction network weight and the wavelet function parameters, continuously calculating and predicting network output until the error meets the requirement;
E. testing the network prediction precision by using a test sample;
F. and predicting the flow-back rate by using the trained wavelet neural network.
The geological parameters include permeability, porosity, oil saturation, elastic modulus, poisson's ratio, pore pressure, reservoir thickness, water sensitive mineral content, natural fracture density, natural fracture openness.
The engineering parameters comprise construction scale, construction discharge capacity, construction sand ratio, crack length and horizontal section length.
The back drainage system comprises the soaking time and the size of a back drainage oil nozzle.
The overall process is shown in figure 1, and the specific wavelet neural network structure is shown in figure 2.
The normalization method is standard deviation normalization, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the input parameters after the normalization, the parameters are,x 0 in order to be the input parameters before normalization,is the average of the input parameters before normalization,is the standard deviation of the input parameter before normalization.
The wavelet neural network comprises an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, wherein the number of nodes of the input layer and the output layer is respectively the number of sample input parameters and output parameters, and the number calculation formula of the nodes of the hidden layer is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Nin order to imply the number of nodes in the layer,nthe number of the nodes of the input layer is,mthe number of the output layer nodes is,c、dthe values are 1.6799 and 0.9298 respectively for empirical constants.
The wavelet basis function in the wavelet neural network is a Marr function, and specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,in order to be a basis function of the wavelet,xis an independent variable.
The hidden layer output calculation formula is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,as a hidden layerjAn individual node output value;is a wavelet basis function;the weights from the input layer to the hidden layer are obtained;as wavelet basis functionsA translation factor of (d);as wavelet basis functionsThe scaling factor of (c).
The wavelet neural network output layer has a calculation formula of
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,in order to predict the output of the network,the weight from the hidden layer to the output layer;as a hidden layerjAn individual node output value;Nthe number of nodes of the hidden layer is shown;mthe number of output layer nodes.
The network prediction error calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,ein order to predict the error for the network,is the desired output;to predict the network output.
The calculation formula of the correction network weight and the wavelet function parameter is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,、、、respectively obtaining corrected weights from the input layer to the hidden layer, weights from the hidden layer to the output layer, a scaling factor and a translation factor;、、、respectively obtaining weights from an input layer to a hidden layer, weights from the hidden layer to an output layer, a scaling factor and a translation factor before correction;is a momentum factor;is the learning rate;Eis the mean square error of the sample.
The method is characterized in that a 16-opening shale oil well of an oil field in China is used as a sample, wherein W1-W12 is used as a training sample, W13-W16 is used as a test sample, the geological parameters are shown in a table 1, and the engineering parameters, the flow-back system and the flow-back rate are shown in a table 2.
TABLE 1 geological parameter Table
TABLE 2 engineering parameters, flowback system and flowback rate
The comparison result of the measured flow back rate and the predicted flow back rate is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 3 comparison of measured flowback rate and predicted flowback rate
The comparison result shows that the average relative error absolute value between the actually measured flow-back rate and the predicted flow-back rate is controlled within 5 percent, which shows that the flow-back rate prediction result of the prediction method provided by the invention is more accurate and the prediction process is more efficient.
Although the present invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it should be understood that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (7)
1. A shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on a wavelet neural network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
A. determining a sample, and dividing the sample into a training sample and a test sample;
B. taking geological parameters, engineering parameters and a flowback system as input parameters of a wavelet neural network, taking a flowback rate as an output parameter of the wavelet neural network, and carrying out normalization processing on the input parameters;
C. inputting the input parameters after the training samples are normalized into a network, calculating and predicting network output, and further calculating the error between the predicted network output and expected output;
D. according to the error correction network weight and the wavelet function parameters, continuously calculating and predicting network output until the error meets the requirement;
E. testing the network prediction precision by using a test sample;
F. and predicting the flow-back rate by using the trained wavelet neural network.
2. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the geological parameters comprise permeability, porosity, oil saturation, elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, pore pressure, reservoir thickness, water sensitive mineral content, natural fracture density and natural fracture openness.
3. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the engineering parameters comprise construction scale, construction discharge capacity, construction sand ratio, crack length and horizontal section length.
4. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the flow-back system comprises the soaking time and the size of a flow-back oil nozzle.
5. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the normalization method is standard deviation normalization, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the input parameters after the normalization, the parameters are,x 0 in order to be the input parameters before normalization,is the average of the input parameters before normalization,is the standard deviation of the input parameter before normalization.
6. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the wavelet neural network comprises an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, wherein the number of nodes of the input layer and the output layer is respectively the number of sample input parameters and output parameters, and the number calculation formula of the nodes of the hidden layer is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Nin order to imply the number of nodes in the layer,nthe number of the nodes of the input layer is,mthe number of the output layer nodes is,c、dthe values are 1.6799 and 0.9298 respectively for empirical constants.
7. The shale oil pressure post-flowback rate prediction method based on the wavelet neural network as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: the wavelet basis function in the wavelet neural network is a Marr function, and specifically comprises the following steps:
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CN112282721A (en) * | 2020-12-25 | 2021-01-29 | 成都创源油气技术开发有限公司 | Optimal design method for fracturing fluid flowback system after fracturing of shale gas horizontal well |
CN113006774A (en) * | 2021-03-16 | 2021-06-22 | 西南石油大学 | Online graph neural network prediction method for oil pressure peak in fracturing construction |
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CN115271261A (en) * | 2022-09-26 | 2022-11-01 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Shale gas well flowback rate prediction model establishment method and device and flowback rate prediction method and device |
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