CN111369143A - Power supply reliability assessment method for service operation and maintenance - Google Patents
Power supply reliability assessment method for service operation and maintenance Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power supply reliability assessment method for servicing operation and maintenance, which comprises the following steps: s1, determining equipment of each operation and maintenance overhaul project; s2, calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment; s3, arranging and combining the operation and maintenance overhaul projects according to the modes of sequential overhaul, parallel overhaul and comprehensive overhaul to form an operation and maintenance project set; s4, performing reliability assessment on the common mode associated equipment of the operation and maintenance overhaul project set, and performing reliability assessment on the operation risk of the external related power grid to form a system reliability index; and S5, selecting a power distribution network maintenance scheme with high power supply reliability level as a final maintenance scheme. The invention solves the unreasonable problem of the existing evaluation and maintenance scheme and neglects the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system, and the operation and maintenance auxiliary decision is realized by the reliability evaluation and auxiliary decision system development serving for the operation and maintenance.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power supply reliability evaluation of a power grid, in particular to a power supply reliability evaluation method for operation and maintenance.
Background
With the development of economic society, the demand of users on the power supply reliability level is continuously improved, and especially the reliability level of a power distribution system directly determines the final power supply reliability level of the users, so that the power supply reliability becomes one of important indexes for measuring the development of an urban power grid, and reliability evaluation is an important link. Meanwhile, the safe and reliable supply of energy and power is guaranteed, the requirements of economic and social development and the energy utilization of the good life of people are met by high-quality and high-efficiency services, and the method is a starting point and a foot-drop point for building 'three-type two-network and world first-class'.
At present, operation and maintenance are one of the most main factors influencing the power supply reliability of a power distribution network, and according to statistics, in 2018, the average power failure time of the faults of users in China is 6.46 hours/family, the average power failure time is prearranged to be 9.29 hours/family, and the prearranged average power failure time accounts for 58.99 percent of the total power failure time; the average power failure frequency of the user is 2.01 times per household, the average power failure frequency is prearranged to be 1.27 times per household, and the prearranged average power failure frequency accounts for 38.62 percent of the total power failure frequency. In 2018, in all events of scheduled power failure, the maintenance power failure is the largest factor and accounts for 53.94% of the scheduled power failure, and the average power failure time of a user is 5.01 hours per family; the engineering power failure is a second factor, accounts for 44.10% of the scheduled power failure, and causes the average power failure time of a user to be 4.10 hours per household; the power failure caused by user application, power regulation, power limitation and low-voltage operation accounts for 1.95% of the scheduled power failure, and the average power failure time of the user is 10.92 minutes per household.
Grid maintenance is one of the major jobs of the power company. At present, the thought of 'reliability-centered maintenance' is researched, reliability evaluation is carried out during maintenance of a power transmission network, and maintenance reliability evaluation is carried out on equipment such as a generator set, relay protection and a transformer. There has been no study on a reliability evaluation method for servicing operation and maintenance. The traditional equipment overhaul focuses on the state of the equipment, and the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system is more or less ignored. In the current research, the thought of 'maintenance with reliability as the center' is mostly utilized, and the sequence of equipment maintenance is determined on the basis of directly calculating the influence value of each equipment to be maintained on the power supply reliability of the system.
In the traditional power distribution network reliability evaluation, the reliability of the prearranged power failure is evaluated by applying a probability statistical method to carry out data statistical analysis on the historical prearranged power failure condition, the reliability level of the prearranged power failure in the method is a mathematical expected value (namely a long-term average value) under probability distribution, the influence of each operation and maintenance event on the power supply reliability cannot be evaluated, and an operation and maintenance plan is reasonably arranged.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problems that in the traditional power distribution network reliability evaluation, the reliability of the prearranged power failure is evaluated by using a probability statistical method, and data statistical analysis is carried out on historical prearranged power failure conditions, the reliability level of the prearranged power failure in the method is a mathematical expected value (namely a long-term average value) under probability distribution, the influence of each operation and maintenance event on the power supply reliability cannot be evaluated, the evaluation and maintenance scheme is unreasonable, and the influence of equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system is ignored.
The invention provides a power supply reliability assessment method for solving the problems, which solves the unreasonable problem of the existing assessment and maintenance scheme and neglects the influence of equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a power supply reliability assessment method for service operation and maintenance, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, determining operation and maintenance overhaul items: determining equipment of each operation and maintenance item, and selecting reliability parameters, wherein the reliability parameters comprise maintenance rate, maintenance time, failure outage rate and failure outage time;
step S2, calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance item on the power supply reliability of the common-mode related equipment: calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment by using a power failure number estimation method and a power failure number expectation evaluation method;
step S3, forming an operation and maintenance overhaul item set: according to the influence range and the influence time of each operation and maintenance project on the reliability, the operation and maintenance projects are arranged and combined in a sequential maintenance mode, a parallel maintenance mode and a comprehensive maintenance mode to form an operation and maintenance project set;
step S4, constructing a system reliability index: reliability evaluation is carried out on common mode associated equipment of the operation and maintenance overhaul item set, reliability evaluation is carried out on operation risks of external related power grids, and a system reliability index is formed;
step S5, selecting a maintenance scheme: and selecting a power distribution network maintenance scheme with high power supply reliability level as a final maintenance scheme according to the number of the users during the comprehensive power failure based on the operation and maintenance time.
Wherein the common mode correlation device: for example, in the case of an isolating device having a fault current removing function, such as a circuit breaker, there are two reasons for causing shutdown: the circuit breaker has a fault or is overhauled, and other equipment in the protection range of the circuit breaker is tripped due to the fault. The former is a shutdown in the general sense, and the latter is defined as "common mode shutdown" or "common mode failure" in which other equipment fails to trip within the protection range of the circuit breaker, and the equipment that can cause the circuit breaker to trip is "common mode associated equipment".
The working principle is as follows: the power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on the prior art cannot evaluate the influence of each operation and maintenance event on the power supply reliability, the evaluation and maintenance scheme is unreasonable, and the influence of equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system is ignored. The invention adopts the scheme to solve the irrational problem of the existing evaluation and maintenance scheme and neglect the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system; the distribution network maintenance can cause two aspects of influences on the power supply reliability of a distribution system, namely, the power failure of users in the maintenance common mode associated equipment area is caused, and the operation risk of external related power grids is increased during maintenance, so that the influence of the two aspects is comprehensively considered, and a reasonable maintenance scheme is formulated. Firstly, taking an operation and maintenance project as an independent event, and calculating the influence of maintenance operation on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment by a method of estimating the number of users in power failure and expecting and evaluating the number of users in power failure; then, according to the influence range and the influence time of each operation and maintenance project on the reliability, the maintenance projects are arranged and combined in a sequential maintenance, parallel maintenance and comprehensive maintenance mode to form N groups of operation and maintenance project sets, reliability evaluation is carried out on common-mode associated equipment of the maintenance project sets, reliability evaluation is carried out on operation risks of external related electric networks, and finally a system reliability index is formed; finally, on the basis, a comparison and selection method of the power distribution network maintenance scheme is provided, wherein the comparison and selection method is based on the comprehensive number of the users during power failure of the operation maintenance time and takes the power supply reliability level into consideration.
The method starts from operation and maintenance, realizes the evaluation of the power supply reliability, and has high evaluation efficiency; the invention overcomes the defect that the traditional equipment maintenance focuses on only the state of the equipment so as to neglect the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system, and solves the unreasonableness of the existing evaluation maintenance scheme and the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system.
Further, step S2 calculates the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common mode associated device through the estimation of the number of users during power outage and the expected evaluation method of the number of users during power outage; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
measuring and calculating the influence of each maintenance scheme on the power supply reliability of the operation related area when the maintenance project is maintained, and obtaining the actual number of users in power failure of each maintenance scheme;
evaluating the influence of each maintenance scheme on a related power grid outside a power failure isolation area when the maintenance project is maintained by utilizing a reliability evaluation technology to obtain a first power failure user number expected value of each maintenance scheme;
wherein, utilize reliability evaluation technique, the evaluation every maintenance scheme is to when the maintenance project overhauls, to the influence of the relevant electric wire netting outside the power failure isolation region, the number of households expectation when obtaining the first power failure of every maintenance scheme includes:
respectively evaluating the sub-items of each maintenance item under the selected maintenance scheme, taking the sum of the expected values of the number of the users in power failure of all the sub-items as the expected value of the number of the users in power failure of the first power failure corresponding to the selected maintenance scheme, and continuously determining the next selection;
and executing the steps, wherein the expected value of the number of the users in the first power failure of the regular maintenance scheme is determined until all the maintenance schemes are evaluated.
Further, in the step S3, the overhaul time of the sequential overhaul, the parallel overhaul and the comprehensive overhaul in the operation and maintenance project set is respectively:
Tp＝max{t1，t2……，tx) (2)
wherein: t isSTime of sequential inspection, tiThe overhaul time of the ith overhaul project; t ispFor parallel overhaul times, txTime of overhaul for the x-th overhaul project, max at txTaking the maximum value; t iscFor comprehensive maintenance time, the 1 st to m th projects are parallel maintenance, the m +1 th to x th projects are sequential maintenance, txThe overhaul time of the x-th overhaul project is shown, n is the total number of the overhaul projects, and m is the number of parallel overhaul projects in the comprehensive overhaul mode.
Further, step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
s41, performing reliability evaluation on the common mode associated equipment of the overhaul item set to form a reliability index set of operation maintenance time;
and step S42, reliability assessment is carried out on the operation risk of the external related power grid.
Further, step S42 specifically includes the following steps:
step S421, judging whether the type of the power grid is a radiation power grid or a complex power distribution network, if the type of the power grid is the radiation power grid, skipping to step S422, and if the type of the power grid is the complex power distribution network, skipping to step S423;
s422, radiating reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the power grid maintenance process;
for the radiation power grid, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of the overhaul area; the fault repairing time of the external related power grid is the fault influence time of the common mode related equipment, and the fault repairing time is shown in a formula (4) and a formula (5);
Tfr＝tl+td+rf+tc(4)
tl＝t0+n·Δtl(5)
wherein, tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5), t0To locate the initial time, n (n)>0) Number of disconnectors, Δ t, passed by the circuit breaker to the actual fault equipmentlThe time required for one-time troubleshooting is a fixed value; t is tdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the fault equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the fault equipment is determined, and is a fixed value; r isfRepair time for a failed device; t is tcFor the closest disconnector closing time to the faulty device, a fixed value, and tdEqual;
n in the above parameters can be obtained by topology analysis, t0、ΔtlAnd tbcIs the breaker parameter, tdAnd tcIs a parameter of the isolating switch, rfIs a faulty equipment parameter;
the circuit breaker failure recovery time T if there is no disconnector between the common mode related device and the circuit breakerfiAnd the whole failure recovery time TfrAre all calculated by formula (4);
the common mode related equipment fault influence time is the circuit breaker recovery time TfiTime to failure recovery TfrFor correcting the equipment repair time;
step 423, reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the complex power distribution network maintenance process;
for a complex power distribution network, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of a maintenance area; fault repairing time formulas (6) and (7) in the maintenance process, wherein the fault repairing time in the non-maintenance process is the fault repairing time of the equipment;
pBs(tfd+tBs)+(1-pBs)rNi(6)
tfd＝tl+td(7)
wherein p isBsFor handover success rate, tfdFor fault isolation time of the common supply branch equipment, rNiFor the corrected repair time, t, of the branch equipmentdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the fault equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the fault equipment is determined, and is a fixed value; t is tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5).
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the invention relates to a power supply reliability assessment method for servicing operation and maintenance, which is used for assessing the power supply reliability of a system, wherein the influence of the traditional equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system is ignored in the traditional equipment examination and maintenance, the influence of the operation and maintenance on the power supply reliability of a power grid system is determined and the sequence of the examination and maintenance is determined through the reliability assessment and the development of an auxiliary decision system for servicing the operation and maintenance, so that the auxiliary decision of the operation and maintenance is realized, the importance of certain equipment and the examination and maintenance strategy are not dependent on the state of the equipment but dependent on the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the system; determining the influence of the equipment to be overhauled on the power supply reliability of the power grid system through reliability evaluation serving for operation and maintenance, and determining the sequence of equipment overhaul according to the magnitude of the influence value so as to realize operation and maintenance decision;
2. the method starts from operation and maintenance, realizes the evaluation of the power supply reliability, and has high evaluation efficiency; the invention overcomes the defect that the traditional equipment maintenance focuses on only the state of the equipment so as to neglect the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system, and solves the unreasonableness of the existing evaluation maintenance scheme and the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a power supply reliability evaluation method for servicing operation and maintenance in an embodiment of the present invention;
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not meant to limit the present invention.
Examples
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a method for evaluating reliability of power supply for operation and maintenance, which comprises the following steps:
step S1, determining operation and maintenance overhaul items: determining equipment of each operation and maintenance item, and selecting reliability parameters, wherein the reliability parameters comprise maintenance rate, maintenance time, failure outage rate and failure outage time;
step S2, calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance item on the power supply reliability of the common-mode related equipment: calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment by using a power failure number estimation method and a power failure number expectation evaluation method;
step S3, forming an operation and maintenance overhaul item set: according to the influence range and the influence time of each operation and maintenance project on the reliability, the operation and maintenance projects are arranged and combined in a sequential maintenance mode, a parallel maintenance mode and a comprehensive maintenance mode to form an operation and maintenance project set;
step S4, constructing a system reliability index: reliability evaluation is carried out on common mode associated equipment of the operation and maintenance overhaul item set, reliability evaluation is carried out on operation risks of external related power grids, and a system reliability index is formed;
step S5, selecting a maintenance scheme: and selecting a power distribution network maintenance scheme with high power supply reliability level as a final maintenance scheme according to the number of the users during the comprehensive power failure based on the operation and maintenance time.
Specifically, step S2 calculates the influence of each operation and maintenance item on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated device through the estimation of the number of users during power outage and the expected evaluation method of the number of users during power outage; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
measuring and calculating the influence of each maintenance scheme on the power supply reliability of the operation related area when the maintenance project is maintained, and obtaining the actual number of users in power failure of each maintenance scheme;
evaluating the influence of each maintenance scheme on a related power grid outside a power failure isolation area when the maintenance project is maintained by utilizing a reliability evaluation technology to obtain a first power failure user number expected value of each maintenance scheme;
wherein, utilize reliability evaluation technique, the evaluation every maintenance scheme is to when the maintenance project overhauls, to the influence of the relevant electric wire netting outside the power failure isolation region, the number of households expectation when obtaining the first power failure of every maintenance scheme includes:
respectively evaluating the sub-items of each maintenance item under the selected maintenance scheme, taking the sum of the expected values of the number of the users in power failure of all the sub-items as the expected value of the number of the users in power failure of the first power failure corresponding to the selected maintenance scheme, and continuously determining the next selection;
and executing the steps, wherein the expected value of the number of the users in the first power failure of the regular maintenance scheme is determined until all the maintenance schemes are evaluated.
Specifically, in step S3, the overhaul time for the sequential overhaul, the parallel overhaul and the comprehensive overhaul in the operation and maintenance overhaul item set is respectively:
Tp＝max{t1，t2……，tx} (2)
wherein: t isSTime of sequential inspection, tiIs item iThe overhaul time of the overhaul project; t ispFor parallel overhaul times, txTime of overhaul for the x-th overhaul project, max at txTaking the maximum value; t iscFor comprehensive maintenance time, the 1 st to m th projects are parallel maintenance, the m +1 th to x th projects are sequential maintenance, txThe overhaul time of the x-th overhaul project is shown, n is the total number of the overhaul projects, and m is the number of parallel overhaul projects in the comprehensive overhaul mode.
Specifically, step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
s41, carrying out reliability evaluation on the common mode associated equipment of the overhaul item set to form a reliability index set of operation maintenance overhaul time;
and S42, carrying out reliability assessment on the operation risk of the external related power grid.
Step S42 specifically includes the following steps:
s421, judging whether the type of the power grid is a radiation power grid or a complex power distribution network, if the type of the power grid is the radiation power grid, skipping to the step S422, and if the type of the power grid is the complex power distribution network, skipping to the step S423;
s422, reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the process of radiation power grid maintenance;
for the radiation power grid, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of the overhaul area; the fault repairing time of the external related power grid is the fault influence time of the common mode related equipment, and the fault repairing time is shown in a formula (4) and a formula (5);
Tfr＝tl+td+rf+tc(4)
tl＝t0+n·Δtl(5)
wherein, tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5), t0To locate the initial time, n (n)>0) Number of disconnectors, Δ t, passed by the circuit breaker to the actual fault equipmentlThe time required for one-time troubleshooting is a fixed value; t is tdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the faulty equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the faulty equipment is determined, and isA fixed value; r isfRepair time for a failed device; t is tcFor the closest disconnector closing time to the faulty device, a fixed value, and tdEqual;
n in the above parameters is obtained by topological analysis, t0、ΔtlAnd tbcIs the breaker parameter, tdAnd tcIs a parameter of the isolating switch, rfIs a faulty equipment parameter;
the circuit breaker failure recovery time T if there is no disconnector between the common mode related device and the circuit breakerfiAnd the whole failure recovery time TfrAre all calculated by formula (4);
the common mode related equipment fault influence time is the circuit breaker recovery time TfiTime to failure recovery TfrFor correcting the equipment repair time;
s423, reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the complex power distribution network maintenance process;
for a complex power distribution network, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of a maintenance area; fault repairing time formulas (6) and (7) in the maintenance process, wherein the fault repairing time in the non-maintenance process is the fault repairing time of the equipment;
pBs(tfd+tBs)+(1-pBs)rNi(6)
tfd＝tl+td(7)
wherein p isBsFor handover success rate, tfdFor fault isolation time of the common supply branch equipment, rNiFor the corrected repair time, t, of the branch equipmentdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the fault equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the fault equipment is determined, and is a fixed value; t is tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5).
The working principle is as follows: the power distribution network reliability evaluation method based on the prior art cannot evaluate the influence of each operation and maintenance event on the power supply reliability, the evaluation and maintenance scheme is unreasonable, and the influence of equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system is ignored. The invention adopts the scheme to solve the irrational problem of the existing evaluation and maintenance scheme and neglect the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system; the distribution network maintenance can cause two aspects of influences on the power supply reliability of a distribution system, namely, the power failure of users in the maintenance common mode associated equipment area is caused, and the operation risk of external related power grids is increased during maintenance, so that the influence of the two aspects is comprehensively considered, and a reasonable maintenance scheme is formulated. Firstly, taking an operation and maintenance project as an independent event, and calculating the influence of maintenance operation on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment by a method of estimating the number of users in power failure and expecting and evaluating the number of users in power failure; then, according to the influence range and the influence time of each operation and maintenance project on the reliability, the maintenance projects are arranged and combined in a sequential maintenance, parallel maintenance and comprehensive maintenance mode to form N groups of operation and maintenance project sets, reliability evaluation is carried out on common-mode associated equipment of the maintenance project sets, reliability evaluation is carried out on operation risks of external related electric networks, and finally a system reliability index is formed; finally, on the basis, a comparison and selection method of the power distribution network maintenance scheme is provided, wherein the comparison and selection method is based on the comprehensive number of the users during power failure of the operation maintenance time and takes the power supply reliability level into consideration.
The method determines the influence of the equipment to be overhauled on the power supply reliability of the power grid system from the reliability evaluation of operation and maintenance, determines the sequence of equipment overhaul according to the magnitude of the influence value, realizes the evaluation of the power supply reliability and has high evaluation efficiency; the invention overcomes the defect that the traditional equipment maintenance focuses on only the state of the equipment so as to neglect the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system, and solves the unreasonableness of the existing evaluation maintenance scheme and the influence of the equipment on the power supply reliability of the whole system.
The embodiment of the invention relates to 27 users of power failure users and 5.538MW of load by using 10 common operation and maintenance projects in 2019 of a certain scientific and invasive park. A mixed maintenance mode is adopted in a certain scientific park, and the maintenance items are 12 from 3 months in 2019 to 9 months in 2019. The operation and maintenance overhaul project conditions of 2019 of a certain scientific park are respectively shown in the following table 1.
Table 1 details of operation and maintenance items in 2019 of a certain scientific and industrial park
The operation and maintenance scheme set obtained by the method is used; according to the operation and maintenance overhaul item classification, five operation and maintenance overhaul scheme sets are selected, and the five schemes are shown in the following table 2:
TABLE 2 operation and maintenance protocol set
The influence of power failure on external non-operation maintenance power grid users is not involved, so that the reliability evaluation of external related power grids is not involved in the out-of-order maintenance. The maintenance project I, the maintenance project IV, the maintenance project VI, the maintenance project seven, the maintenance project eight, the maintenance project ten and the maintenance project twelve cause the power failure influence on external non-operation maintenance power grid users,
the maintenance project I, the maintenance project Ten and the maintenance project twelve are related projects, and when a plurality of projects are maintained simultaneously, the influence of power failure on an external non-operation maintenance power grid is caused; the seventh overhaul project and the eighth overhaul project are related projects, and the influence of power failure on external non-operation maintenance overhaul power grids is caused during overhaul; the maintenance project I, the maintenance project ten, the maintenance project twelve and the maintenance project seven, and the maintenance project eight are unrelated projects, and when the maintenance projects are simultaneously maintained with other projects, the influence of extra power failure on an external non-operation maintenance power grid is avoided, so that the reliability evaluation of the external related power grid is not involved in parallel maintenance; the overhaul item four and the overhaul item six are unrelated items with other overhaul items, and when the overhaul items are overhauled simultaneously with other items, the influence of extra power failure on an external non-operation maintenance overhaul power grid is avoided, so that the reliability evaluation of the external related power grid is not involved in parallel overhaul.
And the sequence overhaul items are shown in table 3 below. The method mainly comprises the following steps: the overhaul item I and the overhaul item twelve are overhauled simultaneously, the overhaul item ten and the overhaul item twelve are overhauled simultaneously, the overhaul item I, the overhaul item ten and the overhaul item twelve are overhauled simultaneously, and the overhaul item seven and the overhaul item eight are overhauled simultaneously.
TABLE 3 parallel sequence overhaul project
| Parallel maintenance project | Item |
| Parallel maintenance project I | Maintenance project one and maintenance project ten |
| Parallel maintenance project two | Maintenance project one and maintenance project twelve |
| Parallel maintenance project III | Ten overhaul projects and twelve overhaul projects |
| Parallel maintenance project four | Maintenance project one, maintenance project ten and maintenance project twelve |
| Parallel maintenance project five | Seven and eight maintenance projects |
The results of using the process of the present invention (i.e., option nine) in comparison to other service options are shown in table 4 below:
TABLE 4 summary of the reliability evaluation results of various maintenance schemes in a certain scientific park
The reliability evaluation results of all maintenance schemes obviously show that the method (scheme nine) is obviously superior to other schemes (from maintenance scheme one to maintenance scheme eight) in the indexes of the annual average power failure times of the system, the annual power failure times of users, the annual power failure times of operation maintenance users, the number of users affected by operation and maintenance, and the average power failure times of the operation maintenance users, which are equal to those of other schemes (from maintenance scheme one to maintenance scheme eight).
Based on the influence of the system power supply reliability, the influence of the traditional equipment maintenance on the whole system power supply reliability is ignored, the influence of the operation maintenance on the power supply reliability of the power grid system is determined and the sequence of the maintenance is determined through the reliability assessment and the development of an auxiliary decision system which serves the operation maintenance, so that the auxiliary decision of the operation maintenance is realized, and the importance and the maintenance strategy of certain equipment are not dependent on the state of the equipment but dependent on the influence of the equipment on the system power supply reliability; the influence of the equipment to be overhauled on the power supply reliability of the power grid system is determined through the reliability assessment for the operation and maintenance overhaul, and the overhaul sequence of the equipment is determined according to the influence value, so that the operation and maintenance overhaul decision is realized.
The above examples only express embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that various changes and modifications can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the invention, and these changes and modifications are all within the scope of the invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (5)
1. A power supply reliability assessment method for service operation and maintenance is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, determining operation and maintenance overhaul items: determining equipment of each operation and maintenance item, and selecting reliability parameters, wherein the reliability parameters comprise maintenance rate, maintenance time, failure outage rate and failure outage time;
step S2, calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance item on the power supply reliability of the common-mode related equipment: calculating the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated equipment by using a power failure number estimation method and a power failure number expectation evaluation method;
step S3, forming an operation and maintenance overhaul item set: according to the influence range and the influence time of each operation and maintenance project on the reliability, the operation and maintenance projects are arranged and combined in a sequential maintenance mode, a parallel maintenance mode and a comprehensive maintenance mode to form an operation and maintenance project set;
step S4, constructing a system reliability index: reliability evaluation is carried out on common mode associated equipment of the operation and maintenance overhaul item set, reliability evaluation is carried out on operation risks of external related power grids, and a system reliability index is formed;
step S5, selecting a maintenance scheme: and selecting a power distribution network maintenance scheme with high power supply reliability level as a final maintenance scheme according to the number of the users during the comprehensive power failure based on the operation and maintenance time.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step S2 is implemented by estimating the number of users at power outage and estimating the expected number of users at power outage, so as to calculate the influence of each operation and maintenance project on the power supply reliability of the common-mode associated device; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
measuring and calculating the influence of each maintenance scheme on the power supply reliability of the operation related area when the maintenance project is maintained, and obtaining the actual number of users in power failure of each maintenance scheme;
evaluating the influence of each maintenance scheme on a related power grid outside a power failure isolation area when the maintenance project is maintained by utilizing a reliability evaluation technology to obtain a first power failure user number expected value of each maintenance scheme;
wherein, utilize reliability evaluation technique, the evaluation every maintenance scheme is to when the maintenance project overhauls, to the influence of the relevant electric wire netting outside the power failure isolation region, the number of households expectation when obtaining the first power failure of every maintenance scheme includes:
respectively evaluating the sub-items of each maintenance item under the selected maintenance scheme, taking the sum of the expected values of the number of the users in power failure of all the sub-items as the expected value of the number of the users in power failure of the first power failure corresponding to the selected maintenance scheme, and continuously determining the next selection;
and executing the steps, wherein the expected value of the number of the users in the first power failure of the regular maintenance scheme is determined until all the maintenance schemes are evaluated.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the overhaul time of the sequential overhaul, the parallel overhaul and the comprehensive overhaul in the operation and maintenance overhaul item set in the step S3 is respectively as follows:
Tp＝max{t1，t2......，tx} (2)
wherein: t isSTime of sequential inspection, tiThe overhaul time of the ith overhaul project; t ispFor parallel overhaul times, txTime of overhaul for the x-th overhaul project, max at txTaking the maximum value; t iscFor comprehensive maintenance time, the 1 st to m th projects are parallel maintenance, the m +1 th to x th projects are sequential maintenance, txThe overhaul time of the x-th overhaul project is shown, n is the total number of the overhaul projects, and m is the number of parallel overhaul projects in the comprehensive overhaul mode.
4. The method for evaluating reliability of power supply for operation and maintenance service according to claim 1, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises the following steps:
s41, performing reliability evaluation on the common mode associated equipment of the overhaul item set to form a reliability index set of operation maintenance time;
and step S42, reliability assessment is carried out on the operation risk of the external related power grid.
5. The method for assessing reliability of power supply for operation and maintenance service according to claim 4, wherein the step S42 specifically comprises the following steps:
step S421, judging whether the type of the power grid is a radiation power grid or a complex power distribution network, if the type of the power grid is the radiation power grid, skipping to step S422, and if the type of the power grid is the complex power distribution network, skipping to step S423;
s422, radiating reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the power grid maintenance process;
for the radiation power grid, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of the overhaul area; the fault repairing time of the external related power grid is the fault influence time of the common mode related equipment, and the fault repairing time is shown in a formula (4) and a formula (5);
Tfr＝tl+td+rf+tc(4)
tl＝t0+n·Δtl(5)
wherein, tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5), t0To locate the initial time, n (n)>0) Number of disconnectors, Δ t, passed by the circuit breaker to the actual fault equipmentlThe time required for one-time troubleshooting is a fixed value; t is tdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the fault equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the fault equipment is determined, and is a fixed value; r isfRepair time for a failed device; t is tcFor the closest disconnector closing time to the faulty device, a fixed value, and tdEqual;
n in the above parameters is obtained by topological analysis, t0、ΔtlAnd tbcIs the breaker parameter, tdAnd tcIs a parameter of the isolating switch, rfIs a faulty equipment parameter;
the circuit breaker failure recovery time T if there is no disconnector between the common mode related device and the circuit breakerfiAnd the whole failure recovery time TfrAre all calculated by formula (4);
the common mode related equipment fault influence time is the circuit breaker recovery time TfiTime to failure recovery TfrFor correcting the equipment repair time;
step 423, reliability parameters of external related power grid equipment in the complex power distribution network maintenance process;
for a complex power distribution network, the fault rate of external related power grid equipment is the fault rate of the external common mode related equipment of a maintenance area; fault repairing time formulas (6) and (7) in the maintenance process, wherein the fault repairing time in the non-maintenance process is the fault repairing time of the equipment;
pEs(tfd+tEs)+(1-pEs)rNi(6)
tfd＝tl+td(7)
wherein p isBsFor handover success rate, tfdFor fault isolation time of the common supply branch equipment, rNiFor the corrected repair time, t, of the branch equipmentdThe disconnecting time of the disconnecting switch closest to the fault equipment refers to the time required for disconnecting the disconnecting switch after the fault equipment is determined, and is a fixed value; t is tlFor locating time of failure, in the absence of automation equipment, tlFormula (5).
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