CN111369043A - Method for predicting radial growth amount of Korean pine - Google Patents
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Abstract
A method for predicting radial growth amount of Korean pine belongs to the field of forest ecology. The invention utilizes regression analysis to construct an empirical model of the radial growth quantity and the breast diameter of the Korean pine, wherein the empirical model comprises the following components: when the DBH value is 1-54cm, SGR is 0.0455DBH +0.6167, R2Is 0.80; when the DBH value is 54-100cm, SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R2Is 0.41; wherein SGR is radial growth (mm/year) of Korean pine, DBH is breast diameter of Korean pine, R2Is the ratio of the regression sum of squares to the sum of squares of the total deviations. The accuracy of the experience model for predicting the radial growth amount of the Korean pine is 80-88%, the average prediction accuracy is 82%, the experience model has strong applicability in different areas of the Korean pine distribution in China, and technical support is provided for rapidly and accurately determining the radial growth amount of the Korean pine under the non-destructive condition.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of forest ecology; in particular to a method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine.
Background
The broad-leaved red pine forest is a regional apical vegetation in the eastern mountain area of the northeast of China, is a typical representative of a temperate needle broad mixed forest, and is famous for unique group species (red pine), rich species diversity and high productivity compared with forests in the same latitude areas of the world. However, due to excessive human destruction, the original broadleaf pinus koraiensis forest remains a few, mostly as a degenerated secondary forest. Therefore, how to restore secondary forests to the apical community is one of the great challenges facing many forestry workers and scientific researchers.
Radial growth of trees is critical to the study of adaptation strategies and response mechanisms of vegetation to environmental changes. However, in previous researches, the radial growth of trees is mostly measured by adopting a growth cone and a destructive sampling method, and the method is accurate in measurement, time-consuming, labor-consuming and destructive; the method has great damage to small-diameter trees, and the trees are dead due to insect damage. Therefore, a method for rapidly and accurately measuring the radial growth of trees with different diameter grades under a non-destructive condition is urgently needed to be provided.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a quick and accurate prediction method for the radial growth rate (SGR) of Korean pine with different diameter grades by taking Korean pine as a research object.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a prediction method for the radial growth quantity of Korean pine is characterized in that an empirical model of the radial growth quantity and the breast diameter of Korean pine is constructed by using regression analysis, and the empirical model is as follows:
when the DBH value is 1-54cm, SGR is 0.0455DBH +0.6167, R2Is 0.80; when the DBH value is 54-100cm, SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R2Is 0.41;
wherein SGR is radial growth (mm/year) of Korean pine, DBH is breast diameter of Korean pine, R2Is the ratio of the regression sum of squares to the sum of squares of the total deviations.
The invention relates to a method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine, which is characterized in that data of an empirical model are collected from 128 degrees 53 '20' of east longitude and 47 degrees 10 '50' of north latitude in a national natural reserve area of Heilongjiang cold water, 1 sample tree is randomly selected at intervals of 1cm by taking Korean pine in the last ten-day of 9 months as a collection object, the breast diameter data of each sample tree is measured by using a breast diameter ruler, then, the tree core is taken at the position of the measured breast diameter by using a growth cone sampling method for about 10cm, and the radial annual average growth of the Korean pine in nearly 5 years is measured.
The invention discloses a method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine, wherein the chest diameter size range of the Korean pine is 1cm-100 cm.
According to the prediction method of the radial growth amount of the Korean pine, the measured data are divided into 2 groups according to the chest diameter data ranges of DBH not more than 54cm and 54< DBH not more than 100 cm; then, each group of data is divided into 2 groups by adopting a random sampling method: the empirical model building group data account for 75% of total data of each group, and the empirical model prediction accuracy verification group data account for 25% of total data of each group.
The invention relates to a method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine, which is characterized in that regression analysis is carried out on the data of an empirical model building group, and an empirical model of the radial growth amount and the breast diameter of Korean pine is built.
The invention relates to a method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine, which is based on empirical model prediction precision verification group data, and calculates prediction precision FC:
in the formula yiAnd
the measured radial growth amount and the radial growth amount predicted based on the empirical model are respectively, and n is the sample amount.
According to the prediction method of the radial growth quantity of the Korean pine, the empirical model of the radial growth quantity and the breast diameter of the Korean pine is suitable for Korean pine tree species with 126 degrees to 129 degrees 15 'of east longitude and 41 degrees to 49 degrees 40' of north latitude.
The method for predicting the radial growth quantity of the Korean pine is characterized in that an empirical model of the radial growth quantity and the breast diameter of the Korean pine is suitable for national natural protection areas of Changbai mountains of Jilin with 41-42-51 'N degrees and 127-42-128-16' E degrees, national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang Feng forest with 48-12 'N degrees and 128-59-129-15' E degrees, national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang province with 49-25-49-40 'N degrees and national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang province with 126-27-127-02' E degrees.
The invention relates to a method for predicting radial growth amount of Korean pine, which is characterized in that for Korean pine with DBH (root diameter of Red pine) of 1-54cm, the radial growth amount (SGR) and the breast Diameter (DBH) are in linear positive correlation, an empirical model is that the SGR is 0.0455DBH +0.6167, and R is 0.0455DBH +0.61672Is 0.80; based on the data of the cold water area empirical model prediction accuracy verification group, when DBH is 1-54cm, the maximum prediction accuracy of the model is 96%, and the average prediction accuracy is 88%. For Korean pine with DBH 54-100cm, the radial growth (SGR) is linearly and negatively correlated with DBH, and the empirical model is that the SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R2The prediction accuracy is 0.41, based on data of an empirical model prediction accuracy verification group in a cold water region, when DBH is 54-100cm, the highest prediction accuracy is 95%, and the average prediction accuracy is 85%; the result shows that the empirical model can accurately predict the radial growth amount of the Korean pine with different diameter grades in the cold water area.
According to the method for predicting the radial growth amount of the Korean pine, the accuracy of predicting the radial growth amount of the Korean pine by an empirical model is 80-88% in a Korean pine distribution area, the average prediction accuracy is 82%, the empirical model has strong applicability in different areas of Korean pine distribution, and technical support can be provided for rapidly and accurately determining the radial growth amounts of Korean pine with different radial grades under a non-destructive condition. The invention discloses a method for quickly and accurately measuring radial growth amounts of pinus koraiensis with different diameter grades by taking pinus koraiensis as a research object.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an empirical model curve of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine when DBH value is 1-54 cm;
FIG. 2 is an empirical model curve of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine when DBH value is 54-100 cm.
Detailed Description
The first embodiment is as follows:
a prediction method for the radial growth quantity of Korean pine is characterized in that an empirical model of the radial growth quantity and the breast diameter of Korean pine is constructed by using regression analysis, and the empirical model is as follows:
when the DBH value is 1-54cm, SGR is 0.0455DBH +0.6167, R2Is 0.80; when the DBH value is 54-100cm, SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R2Is 0.41;
wherein SGR is radial growth amount of Korean pine in mm/year, DBH is breast diameter of Korean pine, R2Is the ratio of the regression sum of squares to the sum of squares of the total deviations.
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine according to the embodiment, data of the empirical model are collected at 128 ° 53 '20 ″ from east longitude and 47 ° 10' 50 ″ from north latitude in the national natural reserve of Heilongjiang cold water, 1 sample tree is randomly selected at intervals of 1cm by taking Korean pine in the last ten-day of 9 months as a collection object, the breast diameter data of each sample tree is measured by using a breast diameter ruler, then, a growth cone sampling method is used for taking about 10cm of tree core at the position where the breast diameter is measured, and the radial annual average growth of the Korean pine in nearly 5 years is measured.
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine, the chest diameter size of Korean pine is 1cm-100 cm.
According to the prediction method of the radial growth amount of the Korean pine, the measured data are divided into 2 groups according to the chest diameter data ranges of DBH not more than 54cm and 54< DBH not more than 100 cm; then, each group of data is divided into 2 groups by adopting a random sampling method: the empirical model building group data account for 75% of total data of each group, and the empirical model prediction accuracy verification group data account for 25% of total data of each group.
In the method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine according to the embodiment, a total of 100 sample trees are selected.
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine according to the embodiment, regression analysis is performed based on data of an empirical model building group, and an empirical model of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine is built.
In the method for predicting radial growth amount of Korean pine according to this embodiment, based on empirical model prediction accuracy verification group data, the prediction accuracy fc (forecast accuracuracy) is calculated:
in the formula yiAnd
the measured radial growth amount and the radial growth amount predicted based on the empirical model are respectively, and n is the sample amount.
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine according to this embodiment, 100 sets of data are collected, and the obtained empirical model curve of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine is shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2, where fig. 1 is an empirical model curve of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine when the DBH value is 1-54cm, and fig. 2 is an empirical model curve of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine when the DBH value is 54-100 cm.
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine according to this embodiment, table 1 shows prediction accuracy FC data of radial growth of Korean pine in different radial grades of cool water predicted by an empirical model:
table 1 prediction accuracy FC (%) of different radial grade Korean pine radial growth amounts of cold water predicted by empirical model
In the method for predicting radial growth amount of Korean pine according to the present embodiment, for Korean pine with DBH of 1-54cm, radial growth amount (SGR) and breast Diameter (DBH) are in linear positive correlation, and an empirical model is SGR of 0.0455DBH +0.6167, where R is20.80 (shown in FIG. 1); as can be seen from table 1, based on the data of the cold water region empirical model prediction accuracy verification group, when DBH is 1 to 54cm, the maximum prediction accuracy of the model is 96%, and the average prediction accuracy is 88%. For Korean pine with DBH 54-100cm, the radial growth (SGR) is linearly and negatively correlated with DBH, and the empirical model is that the SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R20.41 (shown in FIG. 2), and it can be seen from Table 1 that the water-cooling area is based on the cold waterAccording to the data of the empirical model prediction accuracy verification group, when DBH is 54-100cm, the highest prediction accuracy is 95%, and the average prediction accuracy is 85%; the result shows that the empirical model can accurately predict the radial growth amount of the Korean pine with different diameter grades in the cold water area.
The second embodiment is as follows:
according to a method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine, the empirical model of radial growth and breast diameter of Korean pine is suitable for Korean pine tree species with east longitude 126 degrees 27-129 degrees 15 degrees and north latitude 41 degrees 41-49 degrees 40'.
In the method for predicting radial growth amount of red pine according to the embodiment, the empirical model of radial growth amount and breast diameter of red pine is suitable for national natural protection areas of Changbai mountain in Jilin of 41-42 ° 51' N and 127-42 ° 16' E, national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang Feng forest of 48 ° 02-48 ° 12' N and 128 ° 59-129 ° 15' E, and national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang Sheng forest of 49 ° 25-49 ° 40' N and 126 ° 27' -127 ° 02' E.
The method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine in the embodiment comprises the steps of selecting 8 sample trees in the national level natural reserve area of Changbai mountain of Jilin, wherein DBH ranges of 5 sample trees are 22-31cm (average DBH is 25cm), and DBH ranges of the other 3 sample trees are 54-66cm (average DBH is 61cm) respectively; selecting 3 trees in the domestic natural protection area of Heilongjiang Shengshan country, wherein the DBH range is 45-67cm (the average DBH is 58 cm); in the national level natural conservation area of Feng forest of Heilongjiang, 20 sample trees are selected, wherein the DBH range of 10 sample trees is 1-48cm (the average DBH is 27cm), and the DBH range of the other 10 sample trees is 51-100cm (the average DBH is 70 cm).
In the method for predicting radial growth of Korean pine according to the present embodiment, the DBH and the annual average radial growth of each sample tree are measured according to the method of the first embodiment. Finally, based on empirical model prediction accuracy verification group data, the prediction accuracy FC is calculated, and the universality of the empirical model in other areas is checked as shown in Table 2:
table 2 prediction accuracy (%) of the empirical model for predicting radial growth of Korean pine in other regions
In the method for predicting the radial growth amount of the Korean pine, which is described in the embodiment, as can be seen from table 2, in other Korean pine distribution areas, the accuracy of predicting the radial growth amount of the Korean pine by the empirical model is 80-84%, and the average prediction accuracy is 82%, which shows that the empirical model has strong applicability in different areas of Korean pine distribution, and can provide technical support for rapidly and accurately measuring the radial growth amounts of Korean pine with different diameter grades under the non-destructive condition.
Claims (8)
1. A method for predicting the radial growth amount of Korean pine is characterized by comprising the following steps: an empirical model of the radial growth amount and the breast diameter of the Korean pine is constructed by using regression analysis, wherein the empirical model comprises the following components:
when the DBH value is 1-54cm, SGR is 0.0455DBH +0.6167, R2Is 0.80; when the DBH value is 54-100cm, SGR is-0.0298 DBH +3.944, R2Is 0.41;
wherein SGR is radial growth amount of Korean pine in mm/year, DBH is breast diameter of Korean pine, R2Is the ratio of the regression sum of squares to the sum of squares of the total deviations.
2. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine according to claim 1, wherein: the data of the empirical model are collected in 128 degrees 53 '20 degrees of east longitude and 47 degrees 10' 50 degrees of north latitude in the natural preservation area of the national level of cold water in Heilongjiang, 1 sample tree is randomly selected at intervals of 1cm by taking Korean pine in the last ten-day of 9 months as a collection object, the breast diameter data of each sample tree is measured by using a breast diameter ruler, then the tree core is taken at the position of measuring the breast diameter by using a growth cone sampling method for about 10cm, and the radial annual average growth quantity of the tree in nearly 5 years is measured.
3. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine as claimed in claim 2, wherein: the chest diameter size range of the Korean pine is 1cm-100 cm.
4. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine as claimed in claim 2, wherein: dividing the measured data into 2 groups according to the range of breast diameter data of DBH not more than 54cm and 54< DBH not more than 100 cm; then, each group of data is divided into 2 groups by adopting a random sampling method: the empirical model building group data account for 75% of total data of each group, and the empirical model prediction accuracy verification group data account for 25% of total data of each group.
5. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine as claimed in claim 4, wherein: and performing regression analysis based on data of the empirical model building group to build an empirical model of the radial growth amount and the breast diameter of the Korean pine.
6. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine as claimed in claim 4, wherein: and calculating the prediction precision FC based on the empirical model prediction precision verification group data:
in the formula yiAnd
the measured radial growth amount and the radial growth amount predicted based on the empirical model are respectively, and n is the sample amount.
7. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine according to claim 1, wherein: the empirical model of the radial growth amount and the breast diameter of the Korean pine is suitable for Korean pine tree species with east longitude 126 degrees 27-129 degrees 15 degrees and north latitude 41 degrees 41-49 degrees 40'.
8. The method for predicting the radial growth of Korean pine according to claim 1, wherein: the empirical model of the radial growth amount and the breast diameter of the Korean pine is suitable for national natural protection areas of Jilin Changbai mountain with 41 degrees 41 'to 42 degrees 51' N and 127 degrees 42 'to 128 degrees 16' E, national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang Feng forest with 48 degrees 02 'to 48 degrees 12' N and 128 degrees 59 'to 129 degrees 15' E, and national natural protection areas of Heilongjiang Shengshan mountain with 49 degrees 25 'to 49 degrees 40' N and 126 degrees 27 'to 127 degrees 02' E.
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