CN111290052A - Method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using gravity wave of stratosphere - Google Patents

Method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using gravity wave of stratosphere Download PDF

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CN111290052A
CN111290052A CN201910938149.7A CN201910938149A CN111290052A CN 111290052 A CN111290052 A CN 111290052A CN 201910938149 A CN201910938149 A CN 201910938149A CN 111290052 A CN111290052 A CN 111290052A
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常舒捷
盛峥
郭栋
廖麒翔
张伟
季倩倩
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Abstract

A method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using stratospheric gravity waves comprises the following steps: s100, collecting data and processing data; s200, detecting the area to be predicted by adopting a Rayleigh laser radar to obtain a Rayleigh laser radar echo; s300, drawing a stratosphere atmospheric density vertical profile, a temperature vertical profile, a stratosphere latitude wind vertical profile and a stratosphere longitude wind vertical profile; s400, obtaining a disturbance profile of the region to be predicted; s500, respectively calculating the horizontal wavelength, the frequency, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted; s600, predicting typhoon wind speed of an area to be predicted; the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the stratospheric gravitational wave creatively provides the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the stratospheric gravitational wave as main factors influencing the typhoon wind speed by collecting and analyzing the global typhoon data over the years.

Description

Method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using gravity wave of stratosphere
Technical Field
The invention relates to a prediction method in the meteorological field, in particular to a method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using stratospheric gravity waves.
Background
The stratosphere, also called stratosphere, is an area between the troposphere and the middle layer, is named because the airflow is mainly horizontal and has little turbulence, the temperature distribution is mainly characterized in that the lower part is cold and the upper part is hot, and the coldest area is the boundary part with the top of the troposphere, and the temperature rises along with the rise of the height. In recent years, with the development of remote sensing technology and satellite technology, stratospheric observation technology has been developed abundantly, the laser radar can obtain local atmospheric parameters with high time and spatial resolution, and the edge detection technology and occultation technology realize global observation of stratospheric regions, which provides a wide data base for researching large-scale and long-period change characteristics of stratosphere. High performance computer technology also provides a solid hardware foundation for atmospheric model development.
In the process of researching the atmosphere, scientific researchers decompose various physical parameters into two parts, namely a stable atmosphere background and a disturbance quantity, and the decomposition is reasonable in theoretical research and numerical simulation. In experimental observation, scientific researchers can also find similar disturbance states on a long-term stable basis. The physical cause of these transient perturbations is well explained by gravitational waves. One important characteristic of the gravity wave is that the gravity wave can carry momentum and energy at a wave source to propagate outwards, and the energy is released on a propagation path of the gravity wave, so that a kinetic energy and energy transport process in the atmosphere is realized, and atmospheric circulation is influenced.
The inventor finds that typhoon wind speed and gravity wave have inseparable relation in the research of extreme weather such as typhoon microphone, typhoon plum blossom and the like, however, the research on relation between typhoon wind speed and gravity wave is very little in the prior art, and no method for effectively predicting typhoon wind speed by using gravity wave parameters exists.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: the method overcomes the defects of the prior art and provides the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the gravity wave of the stratosphere.
The technical solution of the invention is as follows: a method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using stratospheric gravity waves comprises the following steps:
s100), collecting data, processing data
S110), carrying out longitude and latitude grid division on the globe at a preset distance; dividing natural years at preset time intervals;
s120), collecting typhoon data of global calendar years, and establishing a database by using the collected typhoon data of the global calendar years, wherein the typhoon data comprises actual typhoon wind speed, horizontal wave length, effective kinetic energy and effective potential energy in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval; according to the typhoon data of the global calendar year, establishing a regression equation of the actual typhoon wind speed and the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval:
V(tai)＝f(ω，λ(h)，Ek，EP)
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
V(tai)the unit of the actual typhoon wind speed in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is m/s, and the same is as follows;
omega is the frequency of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in Hz and the same below in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval;
λ(h)the unit of the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is m, and the same is given below;
Ekeffective kinetic energy of gravity waves of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is represented by the unit J, which is the same below;
EPthe effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval,the unit is J, the same below;
s200), detecting
Detecting a region to be predicted by adopting a Rayleigh laser radar to obtain a Rayleigh laser radar echo;
s300), drawing a stratosphere atmospheric density vertical profile, a temperature vertical profile, a stratosphere latitude wind vertical profile, a stratosphere longitude wind vertical profile
S400), obtaining the disturbance profile of the region to be predicted
S500), calculating parameters of gravity waves of the area to be predicted
Respectively calculating the horizontal wavelength, the frequency, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted;
s600), predicting typhoon wind speed of area to be predicted
After the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be predicted is located and the time for acquiring the data of the area to be predicted are matched with the longitude and latitude grid of the world divided in the step S110 and the predetermined time interval, the gravity wave parameters of the area to be predicted calculated in the step S500 are substituted into the regression equation established in the step S120, and the typhoon wind speed of the area to be predicted is calculated.
Further, in step S110, performing longitude and latitude grid division on the globe at a predetermined distance; the division at predetermined time intervals for natural years is divided in a manner of longitude × latitude × time, specifically 15 ° × 10 ° × 12 hours.
Further, in step S400, before the disturbance profile of the region to be predicted is obtained, data screening is performed to remove the profile of the short-term background abnormality occurring in the observation.
Further, in step S300, drawing a stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile and a temperature vertical profile, including the steps of:
s310), drawing an atmosphere density vertical profile of an stratosphere of a region to be predicted
According to empirical formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000031
Drawing an atmospheric density vertical profile of an stratosphere of a region to be predicted;
in the above formula, z isDetecting the height with the unit of km, the same as the following steps; z is a radical of0Is a reference height in km, the same below; rho(z)Is the atmospheric density at the height z, in kg/m3The same applies below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000032
is a height z0The atmospheric density of the (C) is in kg/m3Obtained through standard atmosphere CIRS86, which is a known quantity, the same as the following; n is a radical of(z)The number of atmospheric echo photons at the height z is the same as below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000033
is a height z0The number of atmospheric echo photons of (1) is obtained through a standard atmospheric CIRS86, and is a known quantity, the same as the following; n is a radical ofBFor background noise, the same applies below;
s320), drawing the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere
According to empirical formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000041
From a reference height z0Integrating downwards, performing recursion on each preset height interval dz to obtain the atmospheric temperature distribution of the area to be predicted and drawing the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere;
in the above formula, T(z)Is the atmospheric temperature at height z in units of K, as follows;
Figure BDA0002222135970000042
is a height z0The atmospheric temperature is obtained by standard atmospheric CIRS86 with the unit of K, which is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; m is the molar mass of the atmospheric molecule, the unit is kg/mol, and is a known amount, and the same is applied below; g is the gravity acceleration, the unit is N/kg, and the g is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; r is an ideal gas constant and has the unit of J.mol-1·K-1Known amounts, the same applies below;
further, NBFor the background noise to be the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined heights, it is preferable that the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined heights is the number of atmospheric echo photons between the heights of 120-。
Further, in step S400, obtaining a disturbance profile of the region to be predicted includes the following steps:
s410), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to obtain an atmospheric density disturbance profile of the region to be predicted;
s420) performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to obtain an atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the region to be predicted;
s430), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in the step S300, establishing a stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical background profile from the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in the step S300 to obtain a stratosphere latitudinal wind disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region;
s440), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratosphere through-wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300, establishing a stratosphere through-wind vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratosphere through-wind vertical background profile from the stratosphere through-wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300 to obtain a through-wind disturbance profile of the region to be predicted.
Further, in step S500, calculating the frequency of the gravitational wave in the area to be predicted includes the following steps:
s511) calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000051
Calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, N is the region to be predictedThe buoyancy frequency of the domain, in Hz, is the same below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000052
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below; cPThe specific heat capacity is determined for dry air, the unit is J (kg. K), and the same is given below;
s512), calculating the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave
According to formula VTCalculating the change of horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of gravity wave (in the above formula, V)TThe unit is m/s which is the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave, and the same is given below; u is the wind speed of the latitudinal wind, the unit is m/s, and the same is as below; v is the wind speed through the wind, the unit is m/s, the same below; phi is the horizontal propagation direction of the gravity wave, wherein the vertical north is 0 DEG, the rotation is clockwise from the north, the known quantity is obtained, and the following is the same;
s513), calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000053
Calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, AXR is the ratio of the major axis and the minor axis of the gravity wave polarization ellipse, and can be calculated from Stokes parameters, the same applies below; omega' is the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, the unit is Hz, and the same is given below; f is the Coriolis parameter, a known quantity, the same below.
Further, in step S500, calculating a horizontal wavelength of a gravity wave of the area to be predicted, including the following steps:
s521), obtaining Rayleigh laser radar echoes according to the steps, and drawing a gravity wave spectrum of a stratosphere;
s522), calculating according to formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000061
Calculating gravity wave of area to be predictedThe horizontal wavelength of (a) is,
in the above formula, λ'(h)The horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted is m, which is the same as below, and m is the vertical wave number of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted, and is obtained from the gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere drawn in step S521, which is a known quantity, which is the same as below.
Further, in step S500, calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, including the following steps:
according to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000062
Calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ek' is the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, and the unit is J, the same below; u' is the horizontal wind disturbance profile of the region to be predicted obtained by subtracting the horizontal wind vertical background profile from the horizontal wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300 in the step S430, and the unit is m/S, the same as the following; v' is the unit of m/S, and the same is applied below, where the unit is m/S, and the unit is the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300, and the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind is subtracted from the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the background of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind in step S440.
Further, in step S500, calculating the effective potential energy of the gravitational wave of the area to be predicted, including the following steps:
s541), calculating the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000063
The normalized temperature disturbance is calculated and,
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0002222135970000064
the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted is represented by the unit K, and the same is carried out below; t' is the area to be predicted obtained by subtracting the vertical ambient background profile of the stratospheric atmospheric temperature from the vertical ambient profile of the stratospheric atmospheric temperature of the area to be predicted drawn in step S300 in step S420The atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the domain has the unit of K, and the same applies below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000065
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below;
s542) calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000071
Calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ep' is the effective potential energy of the gravitational wave in J, the same below, of the area to be predicted.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
1. the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the stratospheric gravitational wave creatively provides the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the stratospheric gravitational wave as main factors influencing the typhoon wind speed by collecting and analyzing the global typhoon data over the years.
2. According to the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the stratosphere gravitational waves, the grid division is carried out globally through the establishment of the database, the region division with higher practicability is realized, the time division is carried out simultaneously, the time division with higher practicability is realized, the established regression equation depends on the typhoon data of the whole world, powerful data support is provided for the regression equation by the station data of the past year on the basis of determining the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the stratosphere gravitational waves as main factors influencing the typhoon wind speed, and the accuracy of the regression equation is greatly improved.
3. The method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the gravity waves of the stratosphere is divided in a manner of longitude multiplied by latitude multiplied by time, is divided in a manner of 15 degrees multiplied by 10 degrees multiplied by 12 hours, divides the whole world into 432 grids, and realizes perfect division.
4. According to the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the gravity wave of the stratosphere, data are screened before the disturbance profile of the area to be predicted is obtained, the profile with short-term background abnormality in observation is removed, the precision of the disturbance profile is greatly improved, and the accuracy of the parameters of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted is further improved.
5. According to the method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the gravity waves of the stratosphere, the vertical profile of the stratosphere atmospheric density of the area to be predicted and the vertical profile of the stratosphere atmospheric temperature of the area to be predicted are drawn through an empirical formula, so that the accuracy of the vertical profiles is greatly improved.
6. The method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the stratospheric gravity wave creatively adopts the atmospheric echo photon number of the quality inspection with the preset height as the background noise, and reduces the complexity of subsequent data processing on the basis of not reducing the calculation precision.
7. The method for predicting the typhoon wind speed by using the gravity waves of the stratosphere creatively adopts the empirical formula to calculate each parameter of the gravity waves of the area to be predicted, greatly improves the accuracy of the gravity wave parameter, and further improves the precision of the typhoon wind speed prediction.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting a typhoon wind speed using stratospheric gravitational waves according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using gravity waves of an stratosphere according to the present invention, in an embodiment, after a rayleigh laser radar is used for observation in a certain place, a vertical profile diagram of the atmospheric density of the stratosphere in an area to be predicted is drawn according to step S310.
Fig. 3 is a method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using gravity waves of an stratosphere according to the present invention, in an embodiment, after a rayleigh laser radar is used for observation in a certain place, a vertical profile diagram of an atmospheric temperature of the stratosphere in an area to be predicted is drawn according to step S310.
Fig. 4 is a diagram of an atmospheric density disturbance profile of an area to be predicted, which is obtained according to step S410 after observation is performed in a certain place by using a rayleigh laser radar in the method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using a gravity wave of a stratosphere according to the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a diagram of an atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of an area to be predicted, which is obtained according to step S410 after a certain observation is performed by using a rayleigh laser radar, in the method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using a gravity wave of a stratosphere according to the present invention.
Fig. 6 is a diagram of a weft wind disturbance profile of an area to be predicted, which is obtained according to step S410 after observation is performed in a certain place by using a rayleigh laser radar in the method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using a gravity wave of a stratosphere according to the present invention.
Fig. 7 is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting a typhoon wind speed by using a gravity wave of a stratosphere according to the present invention, in an embodiment, after a rayleigh laser radar is used for observation in a certain place, a crosswind disturbance profile of an area to be predicted is obtained according to step S410.
Fig. 8 is a diagram illustrating a gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere drawn according to step S521 after a certain observation is performed by using a rayleigh lidar, in an embodiment of the method for predicting a wind speed of a typhoon by using the gravity wave of the stratosphere according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "central," "longitudinal," "lateral," "length," "width," "thickness," "upper," "lower," "front," "rear," "left," "right," "vertical," "horizontal," "top," "bottom," "inner," "outer," "clockwise," "counterclockwise," "axial," "radial," "circumferential," and the like are used in the orientations and positional relationships indicated in the drawings for convenience in describing the invention and to simplify the description, and are not intended to indicate or imply that the referenced devices or elements must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and are therefore not to be considered limiting of the invention. Furthermore, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of that feature. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means two or more unless otherwise specified.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the terms "mounted", "connected" and "abutted" are to be construed broadly, e.g., as being fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
A method for predicting typhoon wind speed by using stratospheric gravity waves comprises the following steps:
s100), collecting data, processing data
S110), carrying out longitude and latitude grid division on the globe at a preset distance; the natural year is divided at predetermined time intervals, specifically, in a manner of longitude × latitude × time, specifically, 15 ° × 10 ° × 12 hours, so that the world is divided into 432 grids.
S120), collecting typhoon data of global calendar years, and establishing a database by using the collected typhoon data of the global calendar years, wherein the typhoon data comprises actual typhoon wind speed, horizontal wave length, effective kinetic energy and effective potential energy in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval; according to the typhoon data of the global calendar year, establishing a regression equation of the actual typhoon wind speed and the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval:
V(tai)＝f(ω，λ(h)，Ek，EP)
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
V(tai)the unit of the actual typhoon wind speed in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is m/s, and the same is as follows;
omega is the frequency of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in Hz and the same below in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval;
λ(h)for within a single latitude and longitude grid, single advanceIn a timing interval, the unit of the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the stratosphere is m, and the following is the same;
Ekeffective kinetic energy of gravity waves of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is represented by the unit J, which is the same below;
EPeffective potential energy of gravity waves of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is represented by the unit J, which is the same below;
s200), detecting
Detecting a region to be predicted by adopting a Rayleigh laser radar to obtain a Rayleigh laser radar echo;
preferably, the boundaries of the area to be predicted fall within a single latitude and longitude grid. Further preferably, the area of the region to be predicted is not less than 95% of the area of the single longitude and latitude grid.
S300), drawing a vertical atmospheric density profile, a vertical temperature profile, a vertical weft-wind profile and a vertical warp-wind profile of the stratosphere.
Preferably, S310) of drawing the stratosphere atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted includes the following steps:
according to empirical formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000101
Drawing an atmospheric density vertical profile of an stratosphere of a region to be predicted;
in the above formula, z is the detection height, and the unit is km, the same below; z is a radical of0Is a reference height in km, the same below; rho(z)Is the atmospheric density at the height z, in kg/m3The same applies below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000102
is a height z0The atmospheric density of the (C) is in kg/m3Obtained through standard atmosphere CIRS86, which is a known quantity, the same as the following; n is a radical of(z)The number of atmospheric echo photons at the height z is the same as below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000103
is a height z0Atmosphere return ofThe wave photon number is obtained through standard atmosphere CIRS86, is a known quantity, and is the same as the following; n is a radical ofBFor background noise, the same applies below.
In this embodiment, after the rayleigh laser radar is used for observation in a certain place, the atmospheric density vertical profile of the stratosphere of the area to be predicted is drawn according to step S310 as shown in fig. 2.
Preferably, S320) of drawing the atmosphere temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere of the region to be predicted includes the following steps:
according to empirical formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000111
From a reference height z0Integrating downwards, performing recursion on each preset height interval dz to obtain the atmospheric temperature distribution of the area to be predicted and drawing the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere;
in the above formula, T(z)Is the atmospheric temperature at height z in units of K, as follows;
Figure BDA0002222135970000112
is a height z0The atmospheric temperature is obtained by standard atmospheric CIRS86 with the unit of K, which is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; m is the molar mass of the atmospheric molecule, the unit is kg/mol, and is a known amount, and the same is applied below; g is the gravity acceleration, the unit is N/kg, and the g is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; r is an ideal gas constant and has the unit of J.mol-1·K-1The same applies below for known amounts. In this embodiment, after the rayleigh laser radar is used for observation in a certain place, the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere of the area to be predicted is drawn according to step S310 as shown in fig. 3.
Preferably, NBFor the background noise to be the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined altitudes, it is further preferable that the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined altitudes is the number of atmospheric echo photons between the altitudes of 120-.
S400), obtaining the disturbance profile of the region to be predicted
Data screening is carried out to remove profiles with short-term background abnormality in observation, such as instable instrument power and strong light-induced noise caused by supersaturation, so that accuracy of disturbance profiles is improved.
S410), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300, establishing a stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300 to obtain an atmospheric density disturbance profile of the region to be predicted.
S420) performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300, establishing a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300 to obtain an atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the region to be predicted.
S430), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric layer latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300, establishing a stratospheric layer latitudinal wind vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric layer latitudinal wind vertical background profile from the stratospheric layer latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300 to obtain a stratospheric wind disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region.
S440), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the vertical profile of the stratosphere through the wind of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300, creating a vertical background profile of the stratosphere through the wind, and subtracting the vertical background profile of the stratosphere through the wind from the vertical profile of the stratosphere through the wind of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300 to obtain a disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region through the wind.
S500), calculating parameters of gravity waves of the area to be predicted
Respectively calculating the horizontal wavelength, the frequency, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s510) calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
S511) calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000121
Calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, N is the buoyancy frequency of the region to be predicted, and the unit is Hz, the same below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000131
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below; cPThe specific heat capacity is determined for dry air, the unit is J (kg. K), and the same is given below;
s512), calculating the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave
According to formula VTCalculating the change of horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of gravity wave (in the above formula, V)TThe unit is m/s which is the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave, and the same is given below; u is the wind speed of the latitudinal wind, the unit is m/s, and the same is as below; v is the wind speed through the wind, the unit is m/s, the same below; phi is the horizontal propagation direction of the gravity wave, wherein the vertical north is 0 DEG, the rotation is clockwise from the north, the known quantity is obtained, and the following is the same;
s513), calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000132
Calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, AXR is the ratio of the major axis and the minor axis of the gravity wave polarization ellipse, and can be calculated from Stokes parameters, the same applies below; omega' is the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, the unit is Hz, and the same is given below; f is the Coriolis parameter, a known quantity, the same below.
S520), calculating the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
S521), obtaining the rayleigh lidar echo according to the step, and drawing a gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere, in this embodiment, after the rayleigh lidar is used for observation in a certain place, the gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere drawn according to the step S521 is as shown in fig. 8, and in fig. 8, the PSD is the power spectral density of the gravity wave.
S522), calculating according to formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000133
Calculating the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, λ'(h)The horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted is m, which is the same as below, and m is the vertical wave number of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted, and is obtained from the gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere drawn in step S521, which is a known quantity, which is the same as below.
S530), calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000141
Calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ek' is the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, and the unit is J, the same below; u' is the difference between the stratospheric layer latitude wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300 and the stratospheric layer latitude wind vertical profile in step S430Acquiring a weft wind disturbance profile of the region to be predicted by the background profile, wherein the unit is m/s, and the same is as the following; v' is the unit of m/S, and the same is applied below, where the unit is m/S, and the unit is the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300, and the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind is subtracted from the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the background of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind in step S440.
S540), calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
S541), calculating the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000142
The normalized temperature disturbance is calculated and,
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0002222135970000143
the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted is represented by the unit K, and the same is carried out below; t' is the atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region obtained by subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300 in step S420, where the unit is K, the same as below;
Figure BDA0002222135970000145
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below;
s542) calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure BDA0002222135970000144
Calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ep' is the effective potential energy of the gravitational wave in J, the same below, of the area to be predicted.
S600), predicting typhoon wind speed of area to be predicted
After the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be predicted is located and the time for acquiring the data of the area to be predicted are matched with the longitude and latitude grid of the world divided in the step S110 and the predetermined time interval, the gravity wave parameters of the area to be predicted calculated in the step S500 are substituted into the regression equation established in the step S120, and the typhoon wind speed of the area to be predicted is calculated.
Preferably, the method comprises the steps of S700), monitoring the actual typhoon wind speed of the area to be predicted, recording the actual typhoon wind speed of the area to be predicted monitored in the step S700, the water vapor content of the whole layer of atmosphere of the area to be predicted calculated in the step S410, and the gravity wave parameters of the area to be predicted calculated in the step S500 into the database established in the step S120, and optimizing the regression equation.
In the description herein, references to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an illustrative embodiment," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples" or the like mean that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
While embodiments of the invention have been shown and described, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: various changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made to the embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined by the claims and their equivalents.

Claims (10)

1. A method for predicting the wind speed of typhoon by using gravity wave of stratosphere is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s100), collecting data, processing data
S110), carrying out longitude and latitude grid division on the globe at a preset distance; dividing natural years at preset time intervals;
s120), collecting typhoon data of global calendar years, and establishing a database by using the collected typhoon data of the global calendar years, wherein the typhoon data comprises actual typhoon wind speed, horizontal wave length, effective kinetic energy and effective potential energy in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval; according to the typhoon data of the global calendar year, establishing a regression equation of the actual typhoon wind speed and the frequency, the horizontal wavelength, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in each longitude and latitude grid and each preset time interval:
V(tai)＝f(ω，λ(h)，Ek，EP)
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
V(tai)the unit of the actual typhoon wind speed in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is m/s, and the same is as follows;
omega is the frequency of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in Hz and the same below in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval;
λ(h)the unit of the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is m, and the same is given below;
Ekeffective kinetic energy of gravity waves of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is represented by the unit J, which is the same below;
EPeffective potential energy of gravity waves of the stratosphere in a single longitude and latitude grid and a single preset time interval is represented by the unit J, which is the same below;
s200), detecting
Detecting a region to be predicted by adopting a Rayleigh laser radar to obtain a Rayleigh laser radar echo;
s300), drawing a stratosphere atmospheric density vertical profile, a temperature vertical profile, a stratosphere latitude wind vertical profile, a stratosphere longitude wind vertical profile
S400), obtaining the disturbance profile of the region to be predicted
S500), calculating parameters of gravity waves of the area to be predicted
Respectively calculating the horizontal wavelength, the frequency, the effective kinetic energy and the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted;
s600), predicting typhoon wind speed of area to be predicted
After the longitude and latitude grid where the area to be predicted is located and the time for acquiring the data of the area to be predicted are matched with the longitude and latitude grid of the world divided in the step S110 and the predetermined time interval, the gravity wave parameters of the area to be predicted calculated in the step S500 are substituted into the regression equation established in the step S120, and the typhoon wind speed of the area to be predicted is calculated.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein: in step S110, performing longitude and latitude grid division on the globe at a predetermined distance; the division at predetermined time intervals for natural years is divided in a manner of longitude × latitude × time, specifically 15 ° × 10 ° × 12 hours.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein: and S400, before the disturbance profile of the region to be predicted is obtained, data screening is carried out, and the profile of short-term background abnormality appearing in observation is removed.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein: in step S300, a stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile and a stratospheric temperature vertical profile are drawn, including the steps of:
s310), drawing an atmosphere density vertical profile of an stratosphere of a region to be predicted
According to empirical formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000021
Drawing an atmospheric density vertical profile of an stratosphere of a region to be predicted;
in the above formula, z is the detection height, and the unit is km, the same below; z is a radical of0Is a reference height in km, the same below; rho(z)Is the atmospheric density at the height z, in kg/m3The same applies below;
Figure FDA0002222135960000022
is a height z0The atmospheric density of the (C) is in kg/m3Obtained through standard atmosphere CIRS86, which is a known quantity, the same as the following; n is a radical of(z)The number of atmospheric echo photons at the height z is the same as below;
Figure FDA0002222135960000023
is a height z0The number of atmospheric echo photons of (1) is obtained through a standard atmospheric CIRS86, and is a known quantity, the same as the following; n is a radical ofBFor background noise, the same applies below;
s320), drawing the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere
According to empirical formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000031
From a reference height z0Integrating downwards, performing recursion on each preset height interval dz to obtain the atmospheric temperature distribution of the area to be predicted and drawing the atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the stratosphere;
in the above formula, T(z)Is the atmospheric temperature at height z in units of K, as follows;
Figure FDA0002222135960000032
is a height z0The atmospheric temperature is obtained by standard atmospheric CIRS86 with the unit of K, which is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; m is the molar mass of the atmospheric molecule, the unit is kg/mol, and is a known amount, and the same is applied below; g is the gravity acceleration, the unit is N/kg, and the g is a known quantity, and the same is carried out below; r is an ideal gas constant and has the unit of J.mol-1·K-1The same applies below for known amounts.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein: n is a radical ofBFor the background noise to be the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined heights, it is preferable that the number of atmospheric echo photons between the predetermined heights is the number of atmospheric echo photons between the heights of 120-150 km.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein: in step S400, obtaining a disturbance profile of the region to be predicted includes the following steps:
s410), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric density vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to obtain an atmospheric density disturbance profile of the region to be predicted;
s420) performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in the step S300, to obtain an atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the region to be predicted;
s430), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in the step S300, establishing a stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical background profile from the stratosphere latitudinal wind vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in the step S300 to obtain a stratosphere latitudinal wind disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region;
s440), performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratosphere through-wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300, establishing a stratosphere through-wind vertical background profile, and subtracting the stratosphere through-wind vertical background profile from the stratosphere through-wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300 to obtain a through-wind disturbance profile of the region to be predicted.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein: in step S500, calculating the frequency of the gravitational wave in the area to be predicted includes the following steps:
s511) calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000041
Calculating the buoyancy frequency of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, N is the buoyancy frequency of the region to be predicted, and the unit is Hz, the same below;
Figure FDA0002222135960000042
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below; cPThe specific heat capacity is determined for dry air, the unit is J (kg. K), and the same is given below;
s512), calculating the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave
According to formula VTCalculating the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave,
in the above formula, VTThe unit is m/s which is the change of the horizontal wind speed along with the horizontal propagation of the gravity wave, and the same is given below; u is the wind speed of the latitudinal wind, the unit is m/s, and the same is as below; v is the wind speed through the wind, the unit is m/s, the same below; phi is the horizontal propagation direction of the gravity wave, wherein the vertical north is 0 DEG, the rotation is clockwise from the north, the known quantity is obtained, and the following is the same;
s513), calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000043
Calculating the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, AXR is the ratio of the major axis and the minor axis of the gravity wave polarization ellipse, and can be calculated from Stokes parameters, the same applies below; omega' is the frequency of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, the unit is Hz, and the same is given below; f is the Coriolis parameter, a known quantity, the same below.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein: in step S500, calculating the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted, including the following steps:
s521), obtaining Rayleigh laser radar echoes according to the steps, and drawing a gravity wave spectrum of a stratosphere;
s522), calculating according to formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000051
Calculating the horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, λ'(h)The horizontal wavelength of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted is m, which is the same as below, and m is the vertical wave number of the gravity wave of the region to be predicted, and is obtained from the gravity wave spectrum of the stratosphere drawn in step S521, which is a known quantity, which is the same as below.
9. The method of claim 6, wherein: in step S500, calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, including the following steps:
according to the formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000052
Calculating the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ek' is the effective kinetic energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted, and the unit is J, the same below; u' is the horizontal wind disturbance profile of the region to be predicted obtained by subtracting the horizontal wind vertical background profile from the horizontal wind vertical profile of the region to be predicted drawn in the step S300 in the step S430, and the unit is m/S, the same as the following; v' is the unit of m/S, and the same is applied below, where the unit is m/S, and the unit is the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind of the region to be predicted drawn in step S300, and the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind is subtracted from the vertical profile of the stratosphere perpendicular to the background of the stratosphere perpendicular to the wind in step S440.
10. The method of claim 7, wherein: in step S500, calculating the effective potential energy of the gravitational wave of the area to be predicted, including the following steps:
s541), calculating the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000053
The normalized temperature disturbance is calculated and,
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure FDA0002222135960000054
the normalized temperature disturbance of the area to be predicted is represented by the unit K, and the same is carried out below; t' is the atmospheric temperature disturbance profile of the to-be-predicted region obtained by subtracting the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile from the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the to-be-predicted region drawn in step S300 in step S420, where the unit is K, the same as below;
Figure FDA0002222135960000055
in step S420, performing fourth-order polynomial fitting on the stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical profile of the region to be predicted, which is drawn in step S300, to establish a stratospheric atmospheric temperature vertical background profile, where the unit is K, the same below;
s542) calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted
According to the formula
Figure FDA0002222135960000061
Calculating the effective potential energy of the gravity wave of the area to be predicted,
in the above formula, Ep' is the effective potential energy of the gravitational wave in J, the same below, of the area to be predicted.
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