CN111260221B - Traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation method based on dynamic model and oriented to city global situation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a traffic facility bearing capacity assessment method based on a dynamic model facing city global situation, which is based on a dynamic model allocation method, calculates the total traffic demand and the spatial distribution of traffic trips by analyzing and planning the employment scale of population under land utilization by means of a traffic four-stage model of land utilization, calculates the supply capacity by considering the accessibility and service characteristics of various traffic facilities such as urban roads, buses and tracks and the like, and scientifically assesses the bearing capacity of the traffic facility; the assessment method adopts an organization mode of 'multiple feedback of traffic land from whole to local', can not only assess the coordination degree of traffic facilities and land utilization in the whole city level, but also provide optimization suggestions in the local level. The assessment method can be directly applied to national soil space planning, city general regulations, land development intensity planning and the like, guides reasonable scale and layout of land utilization, and realizes matching of land development scale and traffic facility capacity.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of traffic and land integrated planning, and particularly relates to a traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation method based on a dynamic model and oriented to city global situation.
Background
In real life, traffic jam phenomena such as large traffic flow of urban roads at rush hour, long queuing delay time, crowded inside rail carriages, station peak flow limiting and the like frequently occur, and the fundamental reason is that the land development intensity is not cooperated with the capacity of traffic facilities, and the traffic bearing capacity is overhigh. Therefore, it is necessary to perform the estimation of the bearing capacity of the transportation facility in the land utilization planning stage, which is not only beneficial to improving the land utilization efficiency, but also can reduce the probability of congestion after the planning is implemented.
Along with the worsening of the traffic problem, the assessment of the bearing capacity of the traffic facility is more and more emphasized, and many research achievements exist on the assessment method of the bearing capacity of the traffic facility, but the following problems still exist in the current research:
1. the method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the transportation facility is concentrated on local areas, and a comprehensive evaluation method at the whole-market level is not mature.
2. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the transportation facilities focuses on a single transportation system, such as a road transportation system, and a facility bearing capacity evaluation algorithm of a comprehensive transportation system is lacked.
3. The traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation method is generally based on a static traffic capacity summarizing method, is low in calculation precision, and is insufficient in revealing the internal relation between land and traffic.
A comprehensive assessment method for traffic facility bearing capacity serving city global situation is established, and quantitative decision reference is provided for land utilization planning such as homeland space planning, city overall planning, development intensity zoning and the like. The assessment method can fully consider the traffic trip characteristics under the land development type and the spatial distribution characteristics, and the capacity level and service characteristics of various traffic systems (roads, tracks and buses), scientifically assess the coordination relationship between land utilization and traffic facilities, and further improve the accuracy of the assessment of the bearing capacity of the traffic facilities.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the bearing capacity of urban traffic facilities by 'feeding back traffic land for multiple times from whole to local', so that the scientificity and the accuracy of traffic evaluation are improved. The method comprises the following specific steps:
a traffic facility bearing capacity assessment method facing city global situation based on dynamic model comprises the following specific steps:
step 1: and evaluating the bearing capacity of the overall layer traffic facility. The overall level predicts population employment distribution, traffic trip intensity and distribution and the like through the total scale of land development, various types of proportions, spatial distribution and the like, obtains various traffic indexes by utilizing dynamic model distribution, and evaluates the capacity service level of traffic facilities;
the first step is as follows: determining an evaluation index; the bearing capacity evaluation of the overall layer traffic facilities adopts a target assessment method, the overall target of traffic operation is decomposed into quantifiable specific indexes, and the indexes comprise: the road speed, the proportion of the road saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the proportion of the track saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the post population ratio, the proportion of the track station coverage population and the bus sharing rate;
the second step is that: determining target values of various indexes; determining target values of various indexes according to an ideal state of traffic operation;
target value of road vehicle speed index: an express way: more than or equal to 35km/h, a main trunk: not less than 20km/h, secondary trunk: the speed is more than or equal to 15 km/h;
target value of the proportion that road saturation is less than or equal to 0.95: more than or equal to 70 percent;
target value of ratio of track saturation not more than 0.95: more than or equal to 90 percent;
target value of post population ratio: 0.55-0.60;
target values for the proportion of the track site coverage population: a core area: not less than 80%, peripheral region: not less than 40 percent;
the target value of the bus sharing rate is as follows: more than or equal to 60 percent;
the third step: establishing a dynamic comprehensive traffic model based on land utilization; whether the capacity of the whole-city overall-level traffic facility can bear the total scale of land development or not, wherein the dynamic traffic model based on land utilization comprises a traffic generation model, a traffic distribution model, a mode division model and a traffic distribution model;
the fourth step: obtaining a traffic operation index value; distributing the spatial distribution of the talent employment traffic trip under the land utilization planning scheme to the planning traffic facilities by utilizing the comprehensive traffic model and combining the traffic facility database and other basic data to obtain various traffic operation index values;
the fifth step: comparing and evaluating; comparing the traffic operation index value obtained in the fourth step with the target value, and examining the coincidence condition; if the target value is met, the land utilization is reasonable, and if the target value is not met, a land utilization or traffic facility optimization improvement suggestion is proposed;
step 2: evaluating the bearing capacity of the local layer traffic facilities; the local layer comprehensively considers the service range of the facility and the distance of the traffic trip to define evaluation units, calculates the traffic demand and traffic supply of each evaluation unit based on the principle of fair resource sharing according to the model result, and calculates the capacity of the traffic facility;
the first step is as follows: dividing the evaluation unit; the local layer transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation is carried out according to an evaluation unit, and the following principles are followed: 1) the unit size is matched with the trip distance, and most trips are finished in 2-3 units; 2) the service range of the facility is considered, and a specific attribution unit is required for a major transportation facility (a track station and the like); 3) should coordinate with administrative district boundary, traffic district boundary, mountain river boundary, etc.;
the second step is that: determining an evaluation index; a certain proportion of trips in the evaluation unit go outside the cell, and transportation facilities outside the cell are utilized, but because the transportation facilities in the cell are occupied by trips of other cells, the resource equal sharing is taken as a guiding principle, and the evaluation unit is considered to have a certain demand, so that the facility supply amount is provided, namely the traffic supply and the traffic demand are balanced in each evaluation unit; the bearing capacity of the transportation facility is equal to the ratio of the transportation demand generated under the land utilization condition to the supply of the transportation facility;
the third step: constructing a calculation model; under the guidance of a resource equal sharing principle, based on the diversity of dynamic traffic model indexes and the traceability of a traffic trip chain, a trip distance is introduced when demand and supply are calculated, and demand and supply units are unified into: people km/h;
1. calculating the total traffic demand
The total traffic demand is equal to the travel volume multiplied by the travel distance, where the total travel volume is related to the land development type, intensity, distribution, etc.
Wherein: v-total traffic demand (people km/h);
Vij-total amount of motorized trips (people/h) from cell i to cell j;
Lij-travel distance (km) from i cell to j cell;
k is total number of city-wide cells;
n is the number of traffic cells in the evaluation unit;
the trip amount and the trip distance are respectively an OD matrix and a characteristic (skim) matrix in the dynamic traffic model; the travel in the slow travel mode is not limited by traffic facilities, and the total traffic demand calculation only considers motorized travel;
in order to avoid repeated calculation of the total amount of required information in the whole city range, the motorized trip amount is restricted by traffic generation, the motorized trip total amount from the cell i to the cell j is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and the motorized trip total amount from the cell j to the cell i is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell j is located;
due to the tidal characteristics of traffic travel, the people travel between the residential community i and the employment community j, and the early-high-early-travel is mainly VijRecording the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the cells in the cell i and the ij; late high line is mainly VjiRecording the evaluation unit where the j cell is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the j cell and the ij; in the traffic demand calculation, the peak motorized traffic total is taken as the average value of the early peak and the late peak, namely the ij cell is requiredTraffic facilities required for traveling among the average matched ijs;
2. calculating the total traffic supply
The total traffic supply amount not only considers road facilities, but also considers public transport facilities such as tracks, conventional buses and the like, and is finally converted into a unified unit (people x km/h);
(1) traffic supply of track facility
The traffic supply quantity of the track facility is equal to the product of the peak hour section traffic capacity of the track line and the length of the track line, and is related to the capacity of a train system, the length of the track line, the departure frequency and the like; site capacity constraint and track mode bearing proportion constraint are carried out, and proper supply capacity of the evaluation unit is obtained through transverse comparison;
wherein:
CM-total track facility supply (people km/h);
CMithe section traffic capacity of the track line i is related to the train type, the departure frequency and the number of people occupied in unit area, and considering that a certain service level needs to be ensured in a planning stage, the section traffic capacity of the 6A vehicle type is 3.7 ten thousand people/h according to the density of 5 people/m 2 and the departure interval of 2.5 minutes;
LMi-the total length (km) of the track line i within the evaluation unit;
b-evaluating the number of track circuits in the unit;
Vt-assessing the number of motorized traffic demands in the unit (people/h);
pMthe maximum sharing rate (%) of the rail transit modes in the evaluation unit is less than or equal to 90%, the employment proportion of the covered population of the rail stations in the core area is large, the sharing rate of the rail modes is large, and the sharing rate of the rail modes in the peripheral area is low;
LM-estimating the average travel distance (km) of the tracks within the unit;
Csiphysical capacity of track station i, traineeThe limit (people/h) of the passenger capacity, the number of ticket checking machines, the traffic capacity of stairs and channels and the like;
c, evaluating the number of the track stations in the range, and calculating the transfer station according to a plurality of track stations;
(2) supply of conventional public transport facilities
The supply amount of conventional public transport facilities is related to the number of bus stops, the number of lines stopping the bus stops, the number of shifts of each line, the length of the bus line and the like, and a traffic capacity summarizing method can be adopted for areas where the current bus lines are mature. For the newly planned district, the resource capacity provided for the conventional public transport by planning the road facilities is calculated because the bus line and the station can not be predicted, and is simultaneously restrained by the bearing proportion of the conventional public transport.
Wherein:
CB-total amount of supply (people km/h) for regular public transportation facilities;
Li-evaluating the length (km) of the ith road in the unit;
ci-evaluating the traffic capacity (pcu/h) of the ith road in the cell in relation to road class, number of lanes;
δithe ith road in the evaluation unit provides a proportion coefficient of the bus lane and the conventional bus driving resources, and the current situation can be referred to different road grades to determine the proportion;
θithe average number of passengers (people/vehicles) of the conventional buses on the ith road in the evaluation unit is 10-50 by referring to the status statistics;
mu is the coefficient of the conventional bus conversion standard bus, and the value is 1.5-2;
a-number of roads in the evaluation unit;
pB-evaluating the maximum share (%) of the conventional transit mode in the unit.
LB-evaluating the average travel distance (km) of conventional buses in the unit;
(3) supply of road facilities
The road facility supply quantity is related to road grade, number of lanes, road length, traffic capacity, vehicle passenger carrying coefficient and the like, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein:
CR-total amount of infrastructure supply (people km/h);
σithe proportion coefficient provided by the ith road in the evaluation unit to the cars is different after the proportions of the buses and the freight transportation are deducted;
ki-average number of passengers (people/car) carried by the ith road car in the evaluation unit;
(4) evaluating traffic response total in cell
The total traffic supply amount in the evaluation unit is the sum of the supply amounts in three modes of tracks, conventional buses and roads:
C＝CM+CB+CR
3. bearing capacity of traffic facilities
Evaluating unit traffic facility capacity as a ratio of traffic demand to facility supply:
S＝V/C
the matching degree of the traffic facilities and the land development is reflected by the size of the traffic bearing capacity S, the reasonable range of the value is related to the city development level, a statistical analysis method is adopted to determine, the traffic bearing capacity S values of all evaluation units in the whole city are sequenced, the 85% bit value is taken as the highest threshold value, and the development strength is properly reduced or the traffic facilities are increased when the value exceeds the threshold value;
and step 3: and according to the traffic bearing capacity evaluation results of the whole layer and the local layer, giving a land utilization adjustment suggestion or a traffic facility planning suggestion, carrying out re-evaluation after the scheme is adjusted, and circulating for multiple times until the bearing capacities of the traffic facilities of the whole layer and the local layer meet the target requirements.
Preferably, the evaluation method system faces the city global situation and is suitable for the stages of territorial space planning, city general rule, land development intensity planning and the like.
Preferably, the step 3 adopts a loop iteration method to realize the evaluation of the coordination degree of the whole-city overall-level traffic facility and the land utilization, or to realize the optimization suggestion at a local level.
Preferably, the track station coverage population proportion and the target value of the bus sharing rate in the step 1 are determined by referring to urban comprehensive traffic planning, strategic traffic planning and the like.
Preferably, the traffic facility database in step 1 includes data of road networks, rail networks and public transportation networks, and other basic data includes data of population employment, vehicle ownership, social economy, household income and the like.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
1) the invention provides a traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation method for urban global situation. The traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation mode of multiple traffic land feedback from the whole to the local not only evaluates the coordination degree of the whole-city whole-level traffic facilities and the land utilization, but also can carry out detailed evaluation on the local level, provides an optimization suggestion with operability, ensures the consistency of the whole and local evaluation results, and makes the comprehensive evaluation on the whole-city level more scientific and reasonable.
2) The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the transportation facility adopts a dynamic model allocation method, is based on a four-stage transportation model of land utilization, calculates the total traffic demand and the spatial distribution of traffic trips by analyzing and planning the population employment scale under the land utilization, considers the capacity level and the service characteristics of various transportation facilities (roads, rails and buses) such as urban roads, buses and tracks and the like, scientifically evaluates the coordination relationship between the land utilization and the transportation facility, has higher calculation precision, and can better reveal the internal relationship between the land and the transportation.
3) According to the method and the system for evaluating the bearing capacity of the constructed traffic facilities, the traditional single mode single network is used for turning to the composite network traffic bearing capacity analysis of the overall association of multi-mode networks such as roads, buses and subways, the travel distance is introduced, the unified unit of demand and supply is designed, and the method and the system are an innovation of urban traffic research in a new normal state.
4) The assessment method can be directly applied to the territorial space planning, the city general rule, the land development intensity planning and the like, guides the reasonable scale and layout of land utilization, realizes the matching of the land development scale and the traffic facility capacity, can reduce the future traffic jam, further reduces the direct cost of traffic control investment and the indirect cost of environmental pollution control and the like, simultaneously optimizes the traffic facility layout, improves the facility utilization rate and reduces the traffic facility construction and operation cost.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a traffic facility bearing capacity evaluation method facing an urban global dynamic model;
Detailed Description
The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the traffic facilities adopts a dynamic model distribution method. The dynamic model distribution method is based on a four-stage traffic model of land utilization, the total traffic demand and the spatial distribution of traffic trips are calculated by analyzing and planning the employment scale of population under the land utilization, the accessibility of various traffic facilities such as urban roads, buses and rails is considered, the traffic demands are spatially distributed on the traffic facilities, and the bearing capacity of the traffic facilities is evaluated according to the distribution result.
The evaluation method of the invention adopts an organization mode of 'multiple feedback of traffic land from whole to local':
the overall level predicts population employment distribution, traffic trip intensity and distribution and the like through the total scale of land development, various types of proportions, spatial distribution and the like, obtains various traffic indexes by utilizing dynamic model distribution, and evaluates the capacity service level of traffic facilities;
the local layer comprehensively considers the service range of the facility and the distance of the traffic trip to define evaluation units, calculates the traffic demand and traffic supply of each evaluation unit based on the principle of fair resource sharing according to the model result, and calculates the capacity of the traffic facility;
and according to the traffic bearing capacity evaluation results of the whole layer and the local layer, giving a land utilization adjustment suggestion or a traffic facility planning suggestion, carrying out re-evaluation after the scheme is adjusted, and circulating for multiple times until the bearing capacities of the traffic facilities of the whole layer and the local layer meet the target requirements.
The following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention is provided with reference to the accompanying drawings, as shown in fig. 1, the following steps are performed:
step 1: and evaluating the bearing capacity of the overall layer traffic facility. The overall level predicts population employment distribution, traffic trip intensity and distribution and the like through the total scale of land development, various types of proportions, spatial distribution and the like, obtains various traffic indexes by utilizing dynamic model distribution, and evaluates the capacity service level of traffic facilities;
the first step is as follows: determining an evaluation index; the bearing capacity evaluation of the overall layer traffic facilities adopts a target assessment method, the overall target of traffic operation is decomposed into quantifiable specific indexes, and the indexes comprise: the road speed, the proportion of the road saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the proportion of the track saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the post population ratio, the proportion of the track station coverage population and the bus sharing rate.
The second step is that: determining target values of various indexes;
according to the TOD development concept, high-strength development of business, residence, culture, education and the like is concentrated in the radius range of 400-800 meters (5-10 minute walking distance) of a bus stop, so that residents and employees can conveniently select various travel modes such as buses, bicycles, walking and the like without rejecting cars. Therefore, the capacity space distribution of the traffic facilities is closely related to the space distribution of land utilization, and the rail station coverage rate, the bus sharing rate, the rail passenger flow imbalance coefficient and the like are adopted for evaluation. The target value can be determined by referring to urban comprehensive traffic planning, strategic traffic planning and the like.
Determining target values of various indexes according to an ideal state of traffic operation; see table 1 below:
target value of road vehicle speed index: an express way: more than or equal to 35km/h, a main trunk: not less than 20km/h, secondary trunk: the speed is more than or equal to 15 km/h;
target value of the proportion that road saturation is less than or equal to 0.95: more than or equal to 70 percent;
target value of ratio of track saturation not more than 0.95: more than or equal to 90 percent;
target value of post population ratio: 0.55-0.60;
target values for the proportion of the track site coverage population: a core area: not less than 80%, peripheral region: not less than 40 percent;
the target value of the bus sharing rate is as follows: more than or equal to 60 percent;
TABLE 1 Overall layer assessment target
The third step: establishing a dynamic comprehensive traffic model based on land utilization; whether the capacity of the whole-city overall-level traffic facility can bear the total scale of land development or not is judged, and a dynamic traffic model is established based on land utilization and comprises a traffic generation model, a traffic distribution model, a mode division model and a traffic distribution model;
whether the capacity of the whole-city overall-level traffic facility can bear the total scale of land development or not is judged, a dynamic traffic model is established based on land utilization, and traffic operation indexes such as road speed, road saturation and rail saturation after the traffic model is distributed are utilized for evaluation. The target values of the speeds of the roads in different levels are different, and along with the improvement of the planned road facilities, the speeds of the roads in each level in the planning year are equal to or superior to the current situation. During the peak period, 100% of roads in the whole city cannot be guaranteed to be smooth, and part of road sections are frequently jammed due to historical reasons, so that the evaluation target allows a certain proportion of jam situations. Similarly, rail transit also allows a certain percentage of congestion, which can be an unsafe factor due to the large volume of rail facilities, and therefore allows a lower percentage of congestion than in a road system.
The utilization condition of the traffic facilities has a certain relation with the land utilization types and the proportion, the utilization balance of the traffic facilities can be ensured only by utilizing balanced layout of various kinds of land, and the post population ratio is adopted for evaluation. The number of the receivable population and employment posts is calculated through the total scale of the residential land and the commercial land, and the reasonable range of the ratio of the two posts should refer to the current position ratio, the age structure, the position balance planning achievement and the like of the city.
The fourth step: obtaining a traffic operation index value; distributing the spatial distribution of the talent employment traffic trip under the land utilization planning scheme to the planning traffic facilities by utilizing the comprehensive traffic model and combining the traffic facility database and other basic data to obtain various traffic operation index values;
the fifth step: comparing and evaluating; comparing the traffic operation index value obtained in the fourth step with the target value, and examining the coincidence condition; if the target value is met, the land utilization is reasonable, and if the target value is not met, a land utilization or traffic facility optimization improvement suggestion is proposed; for example, an ideal post population ratio is 0.55-0.60, with too large a ratio indicating a high proportion of commercial land, and too small a ratio indicating a high proportion of residential land.
Step 2: evaluating the bearing capacity of the local layer traffic facilities; the local layer comprehensively considers the service range of the facility and the distance of the traffic trip to define evaluation units, calculates the traffic demand and traffic supply of each evaluation unit based on the principle of fair resource sharing according to the model result, and calculates the capacity of the traffic facility;
the first step is as follows: dividing the evaluation unit; the local layer transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation is carried out according to an evaluation unit, and the following principles are followed: 1) the unit size is matched with the trip distance, and most trips are finished in 2-3 units; 2) the service range of the facility is considered, and a specific attribution unit is required for a major transportation facility (a track station and the like); 3) should coordinate with administrative district boundary, traffic district boundary, mountain river boundary, etc.;
the second step is that: determining an evaluation index; a certain proportion of trips in the evaluation unit go outside the cell, and transportation facilities outside the cell are utilized, but because the transportation facilities in the cell are occupied by trips of other cells, the resource equal sharing is taken as a guiding principle, and the evaluation unit is considered to have a certain demand, so that the facility supply amount is provided, namely the traffic supply and the traffic demand are balanced in each evaluation unit; the bearing capacity of the transportation facility is equal to the ratio of the transportation demand generated under the land utilization condition to the supply of the transportation facility;
the third step: constructing a calculation model to calculate the bearing capacity of the traffic facility;
under the guidance of a resource equal sharing principle, based on the diversity of dynamic traffic model indexes and the traceability of a traffic trip chain, a trip distance is introduced when demand and supply are calculated, and demand and supply units are unified into: people km/h;
1. calculating the total traffic demand
The total traffic demand is equal to the travel volume multiplied by the travel distance, where the total travel volume is related to the land development type, intensity, distribution, etc.
Wherein: v-total traffic demand (people km/h);
Vij-total amount of motorized trips (people/h) from cell i to cell j;
Lij-travel distance (km) from i cell to j cell;
k is total number of city-wide cells;
n is the number of traffic cells in the evaluation unit;
the trip amount and the trip distance are respectively an OD matrix and a characteristic (skim) matrix in the dynamic traffic model; the travel in the slow travel mode is not limited by traffic facilities, and the total traffic demand calculation only considers motorized travel;
in order to avoid repeated calculation of the total amount of required information in the whole city range, the motorized trip amount is restricted by traffic generation, the motorized trip total amount from the cell i to the cell j is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and the motorized trip total amount from the cell j to the cell i is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell j is located;
due to the tidal characteristics of traffic travel, the people travel between the residential community i and the employment community j, and the early-high-early-travel is mainly VijRecording the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the cells in the cell i and the ij; late high line is mainly VjiRecording the evaluation unit where the j cell is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the j cell and the ij; traffic demand meterIn the calculation, the average value of the early peak and the late peak is taken as the peak motorized outgoing total, namely, the traffic facilities required for outgoing between the average matching ij of the ij cells are required;
2. calculating the total traffic supply
The total traffic supply amount not only considers road facilities, but also considers public transport facilities such as tracks, conventional buses and the like, and is finally converted into a unified unit (people x km/h);
(1) traffic supply of track facility
The traffic supply quantity of the track facility is equal to the product of the peak hour section traffic capacity of the track line and the length of the track line, and is related to the capacity of a train system, the length of the track line, the departure frequency and the like; site capacity constraint and track mode bearing proportion constraint are carried out, and proper supply capacity of the evaluation unit is obtained through transverse comparison;
wherein:
CM-total track facility supply (people km/h);
CMithe section traffic capacity of the track line i is related to the train type, the departure frequency and the number of people occupied in unit area, and considering that a certain service level needs to be ensured in a planning stage, the section traffic capacity of the 6A vehicle type is 3.7 ten thousand people/h according to the density of 5 people/m 2 and the departure interval of 2.5 minutes;
LMi-the total length (km) of the track line i within the evaluation unit;
b-evaluating the number of track circuits in the unit;
Vt-assessing the number of motorized traffic demands in the unit (people/h);
pMthe maximum sharing rate (%) of the rail transit modes in the evaluation unit is less than or equal to 90%, the employment proportion of the covered population of the rail stations in the core area is large, the sharing rate of the rail modes is large, and the sharing rate of the rail modes in the peripheral area is low;
LM-estimating the average travel distance (km) of the tracks within the unit;
CSithe physical capacity of the track station i is limited by the passenger capacity of the train, the number of ticket detectors, the traffic capacity of stairs and channels and the like (people/h);
c, evaluating the number of the track stations in the range, and calculating the transfer station according to a plurality of track stations;
(2) supply of conventional public transport facilities
The supply amount of conventional public transport facilities is related to the number of bus stops, the number of lines stopping the bus stops, the number of shifts of each line, the length of the bus line and the like, and a traffic capacity summarizing method can be adopted for areas where the current bus lines are mature. For the newly planned district, the resource capacity provided for the conventional public transport by planning the road facilities is calculated because the bus line and the station can not be predicted, and is simultaneously restrained by the bearing proportion of the conventional public transport.
Wherein:
CB-total amount of supply (people km/h) for regular public transportation facilities;
Li-evaluating the length (km) of the ith road in the unit;
ci-evaluating the traffic capacity (pcu/h) of the ith road in the cell in relation to road class, number of lanes;
δithe ith road in the evaluation unit provides a proportion coefficient of the bus lane and the conventional bus driving resources, and the current situation can be referred to different road grades to determine the proportion;
θithe average number of passengers (people/vehicles) of the conventional buses on the ith road in the evaluation unit is 10-50 by referring to the status statistics;
mu is the coefficient of the conventional bus conversion standard bus, and the value is 1.5-2;
a-number of roads in the evaluation unit;
pB-evaluating the maximum share (%) of the conventional transit mode in the unit.
LB-evaluating the average travel distance (km) of conventional buses in the unit;
(3) calculating asset supply
The road facility supply quantity is related to road grade, number of lanes, road length, traffic capacity, vehicle passenger carrying coefficient and the like, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein:
CR-total amount of infrastructure supply (people km/h);
σithe proportion coefficient provided by the ith road in the evaluation unit to the cars is different after the proportions of the buses and the freight transportation are deducted;
ki-average number of passengers (people/car) carried by the ith road car in the evaluation unit;
(4) calculating the total traffic response quantity in the unit
The total traffic supply amount in the evaluation unit is the sum of the supply amounts in three modes of tracks, conventional buses and roads:
C＝CM+CB+CR
3. calculating the bearing capacity of traffic facilities
Evaluating unit traffic facility capacity as a ratio of traffic demand to facility supply:
S＝V/C
the matching degree of the traffic facilities and the land development is reflected by the size of the traffic bearing capacity S, the reasonable range of the value is related to the city development level, a statistical analysis method is adopted to determine, the traffic bearing capacity S values of all evaluation units in the whole city are sequenced, the 85% bit value is taken as the highest threshold value, and the development strength is properly reduced or the traffic facilities are increased when the value exceeds the threshold value;
and step 3: and according to the traffic bearing capacity evaluation results of the whole layer and the local layer, giving a land utilization adjustment suggestion or a traffic facility planning suggestion, carrying out re-evaluation after the scheme is adjusted, and circulating for multiple times until the bearing capacities of the traffic facilities of the whole layer and the local layer meet the target requirements.
The method provided by the invention can be directly applied to the territorial space planning, the city general rule, the land development intensity planning and the like, guides the land utilization to be reasonable in scale and layout, realizes the matching of the land development scale and the traffic facility capacity, and can reduce the direct cost of traffic control investment and the indirect cost of environmental pollution control and the like on one hand. The traffic facility layout can be optimized, the facility utilization rate is improved, and the traffic facility construction and operation cost is reduced.
Claims (5)
1. A traffic facility bearing capacity assessment method facing city global situation based on dynamic model comprises the following specific steps:
step 1: evaluating the bearing capacity of the traffic facilities on the whole level, predicting population employment distribution, traffic travel intensity and distribution through the total land development scale, various types of proportions and spatial distribution on the whole level, obtaining various traffic indexes by utilizing dynamic model distribution, and evaluating the capacity service level of the traffic facilities;
the first step is as follows: determining an evaluation index; the bearing capacity evaluation of the overall layer traffic facilities adopts a target assessment method, the overall target of traffic operation is decomposed into quantifiable specific indexes, and the indexes comprise: the road speed, the proportion of the road saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the proportion of the track saturation degree less than or equal to 0.95, the post population ratio, the proportion of the track station coverage population and the bus sharing rate;
the second step is that: determining target values of various indexes; determining target values of various indexes according to an ideal state of traffic operation;
target value of road vehicle speed index: an express way: more than or equal to 35km/h, a main trunk: not less than 20km/h, secondary trunk: the speed is more than or equal to 15 km/h;
target value of the proportion that road saturation is less than or equal to 0.95: more than or equal to 70 percent;
target value of ratio of track saturation not more than 0.95: more than or equal to 90 percent;
target value of post population ratio: 0.55-0.60;
target values for the proportion of the track site coverage population: a core area: not less than 80%, peripheral region: not less than 40 percent;
the target value of the bus sharing rate is as follows: more than or equal to 60 percent;
the third step: establishing a dynamic comprehensive traffic model based on land utilization; whether the capacity of the whole-city overall-level traffic facility can bear the total scale of land development or not, wherein the dynamic comprehensive traffic model based on land utilization comprises a traffic generation model, a traffic distribution model, a mode division model and a traffic distribution model;
the fourth step: obtaining a traffic operation index value; distributing the spatial distribution of the human employment traffic trip under the land utilization planning scheme to the planning traffic facilities by utilizing a dynamic comprehensive traffic model and combining a traffic facility database and other basic data to obtain various traffic operation index values;
the fifth step: comparing and evaluating; comparing the traffic operation index value obtained in the fourth step with the target value, and examining the coincidence condition; if the target value is met, the land utilization is reasonable, and if the target value is not met, a land utilization or traffic facility optimization improvement suggestion is proposed;
step 2: evaluating the bearing capacity of the local layer traffic facilities; the local layer comprehensively considers the service range of the facility and the distance of the traffic trip to define evaluation units, calculates the traffic demand and traffic supply of each evaluation unit based on the principle of fair resource sharing according to the result of the dynamic comprehensive traffic model, and calculates the capacity of the traffic facility;
the first step is as follows: dividing the evaluation unit; the local layer transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation is carried out according to an evaluation unit, and the following principles are followed: 1) the unit size is matched with the trip distance, and most trips are finished in 2-3 units; 2) the service range of the facility is considered, and the important transportation facility should have a definite attribution unit; 3) coordinating with administrative region boundary, traffic district boundary, mountain river boundary;
the second step is that: determining an evaluation index; a certain proportion of trips in the evaluation unit go outside the cell, and transportation facilities outside the cell are utilized, but because the transportation facilities in the cell are occupied by trips of other cells, the resource equal sharing is taken as a guiding principle, and the evaluation unit is considered to have a certain demand, so that the facility supply amount is provided, namely the traffic supply and the traffic demand are balanced in each evaluation unit; the bearing capacity of the transportation facility is equal to the ratio of the transportation demand generated under the land utilization condition to the supply of the transportation facility;
the third step: constructing a calculation model to calculate the bearing capacity of the traffic facility; under the guidance of a resource equal sharing principle, based on the diversity of dynamic comprehensive traffic model indexes and the traceability of a traffic trip chain, a trip distance is introduced when demand and supply are calculated, and demand and supply units are unified as follows: people km/h;
1. calculating the total traffic demand
The total traffic demand is equal to the travel distance multiplied by the travel quantity;
wherein: v-total traffic demand (people km/h);
Vij-total amount of motorized trips (people/h) from cell i to cell j;
Lij-travel distance (km) from i cell to j cell;
k is total number of city-wide cells;
n is the number of traffic cells in the evaluation unit;
the trip amount and the trip distance are respectively an OD matrix and a characteristic matrix in the dynamic comprehensive traffic model; the total traffic demand calculation only considers motorized travel;
the motorized trip amount is restricted by traffic generation, the total motorized trip amount from the cell i to the cell j is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and the total motorized trip amount from the cell j to the cell i is counted in the evaluation unit where the cell j is located;
going out between residential quarter i and employment quarter j, the early-high going is mainly VijRecording the evaluation unit where the cell i is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the cells in the cell i and the ij; late high line is mainly ViiRecording the evaluation unit where the j cell is located, and requiring all traffic facilities needed by traveling between the j cell and the ij;in the traffic demand calculation, the average value of the early peak and the late peak is taken as the peak motorized outgoing total, namely, the traffic facilities required for outgoing between the average matching ij of the ij cells are required;
2. calculating the total traffic supply
The total traffic supply amount not only considers road facilities, but also considers public transport facilities, and is finally converted into a unified unit (people x km/h);
(1) traffic supply of track facility
The traffic supply of the track facility is equal to the product of the peak hour section traffic capacity of the track line and the length of the track line, and is related to the system capacity of the train, the length of the track line and the departure frequency; site capacity constraint and track mode bearing proportion constraint are carried out, and proper supply capacity of the evaluation unit is obtained through transverse comparison;
wherein:
CM-total track facility supply (people km/h);
CMithe section traffic capacity of the track line i is related to the train type, the departure frequency and the number of people occupied in unit area, and considering that a certain service level needs to be ensured in a planning stage, the section traffic capacity of the 6A vehicle type is 3.7 ten thousand people/h according to the density of 5 people/m 2 and the departure interval of 2.5 minutes;
LMi-the total length (km) of the track line i within the evaluation unit;
b-evaluating the number of track circuits in the unit;
Vt-assessing the number of motorized traffic demands in the unit (people/h);
pMthe maximum sharing rate (%) of the rail transit modes in the evaluation unit is less than or equal to 90%, the employment proportion of the covered population of the rail stations in the core area is large, the sharing rate of the rail modes is large, and the sharing rate of the rail modes in the peripheral area is low;
LM-estimating the average travel distance (km) of the tracks within the unit;
Csithe physical capacity of the track station i is limited by the passenger capacity on the train, the number of ticket detectors, the traffic capacity of stairs and channels (people/h);
c, evaluating the number of the track stations in the range, and calculating the transfer station according to a plurality of track stations;
(2) supply of conventional public transport facilities
The supply amount of conventional public transport facilities is related to the number of bus stops, the number of lines stopping the bus stops, the number of shifts of each line and the length of the bus line, and a traffic capacity summarizing method can be adopted for areas where the current bus lines are relatively mature; for the newly planned district, calculating the resource capacity provided for the conventional public transport by planning the road facilities, and simultaneously being constrained by the bearing proportion of the conventional public transport;
wherein:
CB -total amount of supply (people km/h) for regular public transportation facilities;
Li-evaluating the length (km) of the ith road in the unit;
ci-evaluating the traffic capacity (pcu/h) of the ith road in the cell in relation to road class, number of lanes;
δithe ith road in the evaluation unit provides a proportion coefficient of the bus lane and the conventional bus driving resources, and the current situation can be referred to different road grades to determine the proportion;
θithe average number of passengers (people/vehicles) of the conventional buses on the ith road in the evaluation unit is 10-50 by referring to the status statistics;
mu is the coefficient of the conventional bus conversion standard bus, and the value is 1.5-2;
a-number of roads in the evaluation unit;
pB -evaluating the maximum share (%) of the conventional public transportation means in the unit;
LB -evaluating the average distance between regular buses in a unitDistance (km);
(3) supply of road facilities
The road facility supply quantity is related to road grade, number of lanes, road length, traffic capacity and vehicle passenger carrying coefficient, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein:
CR-total amount of infrastructure supply (people km/h);
σithe proportion coefficient provided by the ith road in the evaluation unit to the cars is different after the proportions of the buses and the freight transportation are deducted;
ki-average number of passengers (people/car) carried by the ith road car in the evaluation unit;
(4) calculating the total traffic supply in the unit
The total traffic supply amount in the evaluation unit is the sum of the supply amounts in three modes of tracks, conventional buses and roads:
C＝CM+CB+CR
3. calculating the bearing capacity of traffic facilities
Evaluating unit traffic facility capacity as a ratio of traffic demand to facility supply:
S＝V/C
the matching degree of the traffic facilities and the land development is reflected by the size of the traffic bearing capacity S, the reasonable range of the value is related to the city development level, a statistical analysis method is adopted to determine, the traffic bearing capacity S values of all evaluation units in the whole city are sequenced, the 85% bit value is taken as the highest threshold value, and the development strength is properly reduced or the traffic facilities are increased when the value exceeds the threshold value;
and step 3: and according to the traffic bearing capacity evaluation results of the whole layer and the local layer, giving a land utilization adjustment suggestion or a traffic facility planning suggestion, carrying out re-evaluation after the scheme is adjusted, and circulating for multiple times until the bearing capacities of the traffic facilities of the whole layer and the local layer meet the target requirements.
2. The transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the evaluation method system faces to the city global situation and is suitable for the stages of territorial space planning, city general regulations and land development strength planning.
3. The transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: and 3, evaluating the coordination degree of the traffic facility and the land utilization on the whole city level by adopting a loop iteration method, or proposing an optimization suggestion on a local level.
4. The transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: and in the step 1, the track station coverage population proportion and the target value of the bus share rate are determined by referring to urban comprehensive traffic planning and strategic traffic planning.
5. The transportation facility bearing capacity evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: the traffic facility database in the step 1 comprises road network, rail network and public transport network data, and other basic data comprises population employment, vehicle ownership, social economy and family income data.
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