CN111260216A - Comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for seepage field of underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in operation period - Google Patents

Comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for seepage field of underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in operation period Download PDF

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CN111260216A
CN111260216A CN202010042576.XA CN202010042576A CN111260216A CN 111260216 A CN111260216 A CN 111260216A CN 202010042576 A CN202010042576 A CN 202010042576A CN 111260216 A CN111260216 A CN 111260216A
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薛翊国
宁泽旭
傅康
李广坤
公惠民
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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for a seepage field of an underground water-sealed oil storage reservoir in an operation period. And (4) in the construction period, the daily water inflow of a reservoir area is counted by combining with the actual condition, and the change value of the water level of the drilled hole is observed and recorded at regular intervals. And (3) exploring the underground water distribution of the un-excavated surrounding rock area by adopting a geological advanced forecasting method, and judging whether a water curtain system is additionally arranged. And during the operation period, the water pumping amount of the water pumping station and the osmotic pressure value of surrounding rocks of the oil storage cavern are counted. And (3) combining a time sequence analysis method, a finite element analysis method and a nonlinear BP neural network to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the seepage field of the underground oil reservoir in the operation period, evaluating the benefit of the water curtain system and providing an adjusting scheme.

Description

Comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for seepage field of underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in operation period
Technical Field
The invention relates to the research field of underground water-sealed oil storage, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation and prevention system and a method suitable for a seepage field of an underground water-sealed oil storage in an operation period.
Background
The crude oil import in 2018 in China is 4.62 hundred million tons, and the external dependence is as high as 70.9 percent. After the second-phase project of national petroleum reserve is finished, the usage amount of the national petroleum reserve is about 40 days, which is still far lower than the 90-day reserve required by the international energy agency, and more petroleum reservoirs need to be established. Compared with the traditional oil storage mode, underground oil storage is regarded as an oil storage mode which is safer, more environment-friendly, less in investment and low in operation cost, and is valued by all countries in the world. The underground oil storage comprises an underground oil storage tank, an underground water seal oil storage, a salt cavern type oil storage and the like, wherein the underground water seal oil storage stores oil products, oil gas or compressed gas energy and the like in a lining-free cave storage excavated below an underground water level line by using the plugging action of underground water.
Water sealing is a core technology for underground petroleum reservoir construction and operation, and a water sealing mode is influenced by the occurrence condition and stable water level of underground water. The research on the water seal theory depends on the evaluation and analysis of the seepage field characteristics of the underground oil storage. However, the underground oil storage is still in the beginning stage in China, many underground storage projects are still in the construction stage, and the projects put into production and operation occupy a few, so that the guidance experience of successful operation is lacked for reference. The inventor finds that a comprehensive treatment system for guiding the efficient and low-cost operation of the underground oil storage is urgently needed to solve a series of problems that the established oil storage project still faces the risk of oil leakage, the water inflow of an oil storage cavern is too large, the underground oil storage is easily influenced by special weather and the like. And aiming at the hydrogeology conditions that underground water supply in a reservoir area is deficient and an underground water line is unstable, the water curtain system becomes a key for determining success or failure of the operation of the underground water seal cave depot. However, the water curtain system is not invariable and needs to be adjusted in real time during the operation process according to the change of the operation effect and the hydrological condition. Due to the lack of an adjustment principle, conditions such as improper adjustment of parameters of a water curtain system, untimely adjustment and the like often occur, and economic loss is caused. How to accurately and timely correct the water curtain parameters to meet the requirement of water sealing property needs to be solved urgently.
Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation and prevention system and a method suitable for the seepage field of the underground water-sealed oil storage in the operation period are needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a comprehensive evaluation and prevention system and a comprehensive evaluation and prevention method suitable for a seepage field of an underground water-sealed oil storage house in an operation period.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention provides a comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for a seepage field of an underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in an operation period, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, carrying out investigation and understanding on hydrological and geological conditions of a reservoir area in an investigation stage;
step 2, in the construction stage, excavating a cavern according to the design specifications of the underground water seal rock cavern oil depot, meanwhile, counting daily water inflow of a reservoir site area, and regularly observing and recording a drilling water level change value; comprehensively detecting the distribution of surrounding rock underground water;
step 3, judging whether a water curtain system needs to be additionally arranged or not according to the hydrogeological conditions, and designing and building the water curtain system if the water curtain system needs to be arranged;
step 4, burying an osmometer at a proper position of the auxiliary roadway in an operation stage, measuring the osmotic pressure value of surrounding rock close to the oil storage cavern as far as possible, and recording the water pumping amount of the ground water pumping station each time;
and 5: and comprehensively analyzing and evaluating the seepage field of the underground oil depot in the operation period, evaluating the benefit of the water curtain system and providing an adjusting scheme.
As a further technical scheme, in the step 1, water levels are distributed in a cave depot engineering area to observe drilling holes to observe water level elevations, and the average precipitation and the space-time distribution rule of precipitation are counted according to seasonal evaluation annual precipitation conditions.
As a further technical scheme, in the step 2, a transient electromagnetic method, a land sonar method, an infrared water detection method and a digital drilling and shooting technology are combined according to the excavation progress and the water leakage condition in the construction process, and the distribution of the surrounding rock underground water is comprehensively detected by utilizing the respective characteristics of different methods.
As a further technical scheme, in the step (3), whether a water curtain system is arranged depends on hydrogeological conditions, and if the underground water is insufficient for supply, the change of the underground water level line is large under the influence of weather or other factors, and the underground water level line is lower than the top of the oil storage cavern, the water curtain system must be implemented to ensure the water sealing property.
As a further technical scheme, a time sequence analysis method, a finite element analysis method and a nonlinear method BP neural network are adopted to evaluate and analyze the seepage field of the underground oil reservoir.
As a further technical scheme, the time series analysis method is used for researching the regularity of a time sequence and the change relation between the water inflow and the osmotic pressure value and the water curtain parameters and the weather according to the existing time series water inflow and time series osmotic pressure value and by combining the water curtain system parameters and the weather precipitation report of the time period.
As a further technical scheme, the finite element analysis method establishes a stress-seepage field coupling evaluation model by means of multi-physical field coupling simulation software to study the distribution characteristics of the seepage field of the underground oil storage reservoir and simulate the change condition of the seepage field under the condition of various water curtain parameters; comparing the osmotic pressure value obtained by calculation in the finite element analysis with the osmotic pressure value obtained by actual monitoring, and analyzing the reason for generating difference; and after the calculation error is eliminated, obtaining a related evaluation conclusion.
As a further technical scheme, a finite element calculation result is a result under an ideal condition, and the difference with the actual result shows that the influence of actual terrain and seasonal factors is large, and a seepage field is evaluated by taking a monitoring value as a main reference and a numerical value as a reference.
As a further technical solution, the nonlinear BP neural network is as follows: establishing a prediction model, removing data with poor regularity according to an analysis result of a time series analysis method, and selecting a time sequence with good regularity as a learning sample for training; adjusting the training parameters until the error between the prediction result and the actual value is less than 10 percent to meet the requirement; the model is used for predicting the water inflow and the osmotic pressure value of the future 1 month from the current day.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides an analysis method for researching the operation benefit, seepage field evaluation and disaster risk prevention of an underground oil storage by combining the design, construction and operation example and theoretical research work of the first large underground water seal hole group in China.
By combining hydrogeological data and engineering geological reports, a large amount of data for time sequence analysis, finite element analysis and nonlinear analysis research is collected through field data monitoring and hydrogeological test work, the challenges of oil leakage risk, overlarge water inflow of an oil storage cavern, easiness in special weather influence and the like in the current underground oil depot operation are solved, guidance is provided for construction and operation of underground water seal caverns at home and abroad, and basis is provided for layout of a water curtain system and real-time adjustment in the operation process.
The adjustment of the water curtain system through comprehensive evaluation and analysis contains information data of future prediction, so that the method has foreknowledge and avoids the situation of untimely adjustment. The evaluation method combines numerical calculation, monitoring value time sequence analysis and prediction results, and the three types of data ensure the accuracy of final evaluation, so that the accuracy of parameter adjustment is high, the feasibility is strong, the oil leakage rate is low, and the operation cost and risk are greatly reduced.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and, together with the description, serve to explain the application and are not intended to limit the application.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a three-layer BP neural network according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described with reference to the following figures and examples.
It should be noted that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the disclosure. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
As described in the background art, the existing oil depot projects still face a series of problems such as risk of oil leakage, excessive water inflow of oil storage caverns, susceptibility to special weather, and the like, and a comprehensive treatment system for guiding the efficient and low-cost operation of the underground oil depot is urgently needed. And aiming at the hydrogeology conditions that underground water supply in a reservoir area is deficient and an underground water line is unstable, the water curtain system becomes a key for determining success or failure of the operation of the underground water seal cave depot. However, the water curtain system is not invariable and needs to be adjusted in real time during the operation process according to the change of the operation effect and the hydrological condition. Due to the lack of an adjustment principle, conditions such as improper adjustment of parameters of a water curtain system, untimely adjustment and the like often occur, and economic loss is caused. How to accurately and timely correct the water curtain parameters to meet the requirement of water sealing property needs to be solved urgently. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation and prevention system and a method suitable for the seepage field of the underground water-sealed oil storage in the operation period are needed.
Example 1
The comprehensive evaluation and prevention method is suitable for the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period and comprises the following steps:
acquiring the hydrogeological data of the underground oil depot in the whole stages of the exploration period, the construction period and the operation period, and judging whether a water curtain system is applied or not when the construction period is finished. And after entering the operation stage, acquiring a monitoring true value, a predicted value and a numerical calculation simulation value of elements such as the osmotic pressure, the water inflow and the like of the operation oil depot according to the combination of three methods of time sequence analysis, finite element analysis and nonlinear analysis. The data can be used for comprehensively evaluating the seepage field of the oil depot in the operation period, and the evaluation result reflects the operation condition of the oil depot.
And taking comprehensive prevention and control measures according to the operation evaluation result of the oil depot. When the water discharge is larger, the water pumping quantity of the pumping station is reduced by reducing the water curtain pressure parameter in the water curtain system. When oil leakage or high risk possibly occurs or is possible to occur in the short-term future, the water-seal pressure is increased and the oil leakage risk is reduced by increasing the water curtain pressure parameter in the water curtain system. In addition, the operation benefit can be improved by adjusting the distance between the water curtain holes.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
(1) and in the exploration stage, the hydrogeology situation of a reservoir site area is surveyed and known, water level observation drill holes are arranged in a cave reservoir engineering area to observe the water level elevation, the annual precipitation condition is evaluated according to seasonality, and the average precipitation quantity and the spatial and temporal distribution rules (flood period, dry period and flat period) of precipitation are counted. And (4) understanding the engineering geological conditions including the main lithology, rock density, joint distribution and the like of surrounding rocks in the reservoir area.
(2) And in the construction stage, cavern excavation is carried out according to the design specification of the underground water seal rock cavern oil depot, and an electromagnetic flowmeter is arranged at the drainage port of the auxiliary construction roadway to record the daily drainage. And (5) carrying out regular water level observation on the water level observation hole in the investigation period, and recording the variation. In the construction process, advanced geological prediction technologies such as a transient electromagnetic method, a land sonar method, an infrared water detection method, a digital drilling and shooting technology and the like are combined according to the excavation progress and the water leakage condition, and the distribution of the surrounding rock underground water is comprehensively detected by utilizing the respective characteristics of different methods.
(3) And judging whether a water curtain system needs to be additionally arranged or not according to the hydrogeological conditions, and if the water curtain system needs to be arranged, designing and building the water curtain system by adopting field hydrographic tests (a water curtain hole water injection-fall test and a water curtain hole effectiveness test) and design specifications.
(4) And in the operation stage, an osmometer is buried at a proper position of the auxiliary roadway, the osmotic pressure value of surrounding rock close to the oil storage cavern is measured as far as possible, and the water pumping quantity of the ground water pumping station at each time is recorded. All data are sorted in time series.
(5) Time series analysis method: according to the existing time sequence water inflow and time sequence osmotic pressure values, the regularity of the time sequence and the change relation between the water inflow and the osmotic pressure values and the water curtain parameters and the weather are researched by combining the water curtain system parameters and the weather precipitation report of the time sequence.
(6) Finite element analysis: a stress-seepage field coupling evaluation model is established by means of multi-physical field coupling simulation software COMSOL5.1 to study the distribution characteristics of the seepage field of the underground oil storage reservoir, and the change condition of the seepage field under the condition of various water curtain parameters is simulated.
(7) Nonlinear method BP neural network: and establishing a prediction model, removing data with poor regularity according to an analysis result of a time series analysis method, and selecting a time sequence with good regularity as a learning sample for training. And adjusting the training parameters until the error between the prediction result and the actual value is less than 10 percent to meet the requirement. The model is used for predicting the water inflow and the osmotic pressure value of the future 1 month from the current day.
(8) And (4) evaluating and analyzing the seepage field of the underground oil storage by combining the three analysis methods. And comparing the osmotic pressure value obtained by calculation in the finite element analysis with the osmotic pressure value obtained by actual monitoring, and analyzing the reason for generating the difference. After the calculation error is eliminated, a relevant evaluation conclusion can be obtained.
(9) The operation benefits of the underground oil storage are judged from safety and economy, comprehensive preventive treatment measures are taken for the items to be improved, the water curtain system is adjusted, the operation cost is reduced, the operation benefits are improved, and the experience is summarized to guide long-term operation work.
In a specific implementation mode, in the step (1), a hole is drilled in the surface of the reservoir area by using a drilling method, and the water outlet depth, namely the water level elevation, is recorded while the lithology of the surrounding rock at a certain depth in the ground is identified. The surrounding rock density is obtained by quickly calculating the mass and volume of a rock sample; the joint distribution is obtained through geological compass measurement statistics, and other necessary acquired mechanical parameters are acquired according to the national standard GB/T50266-2013.
As a specific implementation manner, in the step (2), the underground water-sealed oil cavern is designed and constructed according to the national standard of the people's republic of china: the design specification GB 50455 and 2008 for the underground water-sealed rock cavern oil depot.
In step (2), the electromagnetic flowmeter adopts a DN25 pipeline electromagnetic flowmeter, and measures the flow of the conductive fluid according to the electromotive force induced when the conductive groundwater passes through the external magnetic field, and the specific parameters are as follows: the precision of the instrument is as follows: class 0.5, class 1.0, measurement medium: various liquid and liquid-solid two-phase fluids with the conductivity of more than 5 mu s/cm, the flow rate range: 0.2-8 m/s, working pressure: 1.6MPa, ambient temperature: -40 ℃ to +50 ℃, medium temperature: the polytetrafluoroethylene lining is less than or equal to 180 ℃; the rubber lining is less than or equal to 65 ℃.
In the step (2), the transient electromagnetic method is excited by step waveform electromagnetic pulses, emits a primary field to the underground by using an ungrounded return line, and measures the change of an induced secondary field generated by the underground medium along with time after the primary field is powered off to search for a target water-containing body with the thickness of about 0-50 m. The land sonar method adopts a hammering seismic source, a detector is arranged beside a vibration exciting point to receive reflected waves, and the moisture condition in the range of 100-200 m is judged by analyzing reflected wave signals. The infrared water detection method is an auxiliary method for short-distance water detection, all objects within 25m emit invisible infrared energy, and a normal field is distorted when a hidden water-containing structure exists on the front surface or water exists; drawing a corresponding infrared radiation curve, and judging whether water exists in the front according to the trend of the curve. The digital borehole camera shooting technology is the most intuitive water detection method, and the water level elevation in a borehole is observed through borehole camera shooting. The characteristics of respective detection distances and modes of the geological advanced forecasting technology are combined to find the underground water distribution condition of the reservoir area.
As a specific implementation manner, in the step (3), whether to install the water curtain system depends on hydrogeological conditions, and if the groundwater supply is deficient, the groundwater level line changes greatly under the influence of weather or other factors, and the groundwater level line changes to a level below the top of the oil storage cavern, the water curtain system must be manually implemented to ensure water tightness.
In the step (4), osmometers are embedded in the auxiliary roadway in a layered and segmented mode, and the osmometers adopt VWP-3 vibrating wire type water pressure. The specific parameters are as follows: maximum outer diameter: 24mm, length: 120mm, measurement range: 0-1000 kPa, sensitivity: not more than 0.45kPa/F, measurement accuracy: ± 0.1% F.S, temperature measurement range: -40 to +150 ℃.
As a specific implementation manner, in the step (5), during time series analysis, the abscissa axis is plotted as time and the ordinate axis is plotted as a osmotic pressure value or water inflow (namely, the water pumping amount, which is equal to the water inflow of the cavern, of the water pumping station) by means of an excell table, so that the regularity is more intuitively researched, and preparation is made for prediction by a subsequent nonlinear method.
As a specific implementation manner, in the step (6), the seepage problem is researched according to darcy's law, the selection of parameters (porosity, permeability coefficient, fluid density, and dynamic viscosity) for establishing the evaluation model is based on the reality, the sizes of all caverns and water curtain holes are based on the reality, and the applied physical field includes a gravity field and a seepage field. Different water curtain system parameters are simulated by adjusting the water pressure applied to the water curtain holes and the distance between the water curtain holes, and the characteristics of the seepage field are analyzed.
As a specific implementation manner, in the step (7), the BP neural network selects a network of an input layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer for training, including training and inspection, training parameters such as the number of hidden layers and the like need to be continuously adjusted until the accuracy of inspection data meets the requirement, training of the model is completed, and prediction of future values can be performed, specifically as shown in fig. 2, in which water curtain pressure, seasonality, water inflow, and osmotic pressure values are used as the input layer, and water inflow, and osmotic pressure values are used as the output layer.
In a specific embodiment, in the step (8), the finite element calculation result is a result in a more ideal condition, and a difference from an actual condition indicates that the influence of actual terrain and seasonal factors is large, and the seepage field should be evaluated by taking the monitored value as a main value and taking the numerical value as a reference.
The invention provides an analysis method for researching the operation benefit, seepage field evaluation and disaster risk prevention of an underground oil storage by combining the design, construction and operation example and theoretical research work of the first large underground water seal hole group in China.
By combining hydrogeological data and engineering geological reports, a large amount of data for time sequence analysis, finite element analysis and nonlinear analysis research is collected through field data monitoring and hydrogeological test work, the challenges of oil leakage risk, overlarge water inflow of an oil storage cavern, easiness in special weather influence and the like in the current underground oil depot operation are solved, guidance is provided for construction and operation of underground water seal caverns at home and abroad, and basis is provided for layout of a water curtain system and real-time adjustment in the operation process.
The adjustment of the water curtain system through comprehensive evaluation and analysis contains information data of future prediction, so that the method has foreknowledge and avoids the situation of untimely adjustment. The evaluation method combines numerical calculation, monitoring value time sequence analysis and prediction results, and the three types of data ensure the accuracy of final evaluation, so that the accuracy of parameter adjustment is high, the feasibility is strong, the oil leakage rate is low, and the operation cost and risk are greatly reduced.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and it should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made without inventive efforts by those skilled in the art based on the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for a seepage field of an underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in an operation period is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, carrying out investigation and understanding on hydrological and geological conditions of a reservoir area in an investigation stage;
step 2, in the construction stage, excavating a cavern according to the design specifications of the underground water seal rock cavern oil depot, meanwhile, counting daily water inflow of a reservoir site area, and regularly observing and recording a drilling water level change value; comprehensively detecting the distribution of surrounding rock underground water;
step 3, judging whether a water curtain system needs to be additionally arranged or not according to the hydrogeological conditions, and designing and building the water curtain system if the water curtain system needs to be arranged;
step 4, burying an osmometer at a proper position of the auxiliary roadway in an operation stage, measuring the osmotic pressure value of surrounding rock close to the oil storage cavern as far as possible, and recording the water pumping amount of the ground water pumping station each time;
and 5: and comprehensively analyzing and evaluating the seepage field of the underground oil depot in the operation period, evaluating the benefit of the water curtain system and providing an adjusting scheme.
2. The method for comprehensively evaluating and preventing the seepage field of the underground water-sealed oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 1, water level observation holes are arranged in a cave depot engineering area to observe the water level elevation, the annual precipitation condition is evaluated according to seasonality, and the average precipitation and the space-time distribution rule of precipitation are counted.
3. The comprehensive evaluation and prevention and treatment method for the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 2, a transient electromagnetic method, a land sonar method, an infrared water detection method and a digital drilling shooting technology are combined according to the excavation progress and the seepage water condition in the construction process, and the distribution of the surrounding rock underground water is comprehensively detected by using the respective characteristics of different methods.
4. The method for comprehensively evaluating and preventing the seepage field of the underground water-sealed oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step (3), whether the water curtain system is arranged or not is determined according to the hydrogeological condition, and if the underground water is insufficient, the change of the underground water level line is large due to the influence of weather or other factors, and the underground water level line is lower than the top of the oil storage cavern, the water curtain system is required to be applied to ensure the water sealing property.
5. The comprehensive evaluation and prevention and treatment method for the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage during the operation period as claimed in claim 1, wherein a time sequence analysis method, a finite element analysis method and a nonlinear method BP neural network are adopted to evaluate and analyze the seepage field of the underground oil storage.
6. The method for comprehensively evaluating, preventing and treating the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 5, wherein the time sequence analysis method is used for researching the regularity of the time sequence and the change relationship between the water inflow amount and the seepage pressure value and the water curtain parameters and the weather according to the existing time sequence water inflow amount and the time sequence seepage pressure value and by combining the water curtain system parameters and the weather precipitation report in the period of time.
7. The method for comprehensively evaluating, preventing and treating the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 5, wherein the finite element analysis method establishes a stress-seepage field coupling evaluation model to research the distribution characteristics of the seepage field of the underground oil storage warehouse by means of multi-physical field coupling simulation software, and simulates the change condition of the seepage field under the conditions of various water curtain parameters; comparing the osmotic pressure value obtained by calculation in the finite element analysis with the osmotic pressure value obtained by actual monitoring, and analyzing the reason for generating difference; and after the calculation error is eliminated, obtaining a related evaluation conclusion.
8. The method for comprehensively evaluating and preventing the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 7, wherein the finite element calculation result is a result under an ideal condition, and the difference from the actual result shows that the influence of actual terrain and seasonal factors is large, and the seepage field is evaluated by mainly taking a monitoring value and taking a numerical value as a reference.
9. The comprehensive evaluation and prevention and treatment method for the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 5, wherein the nonlinear method BP neural network is as follows: establishing a prediction model, removing data with poor regularity according to an analysis result of a time series analysis method, and selecting a time sequence with good regularity as a learning sample for training; adjusting the training parameters until the error between the prediction result and the actual value is less than 10 percent to meet the requirement; the model is used for predicting the water inflow and the osmotic pressure value in a future period of time from the current day.
10. The comprehensive evaluation and prevention method for the seepage field of the underground water-seal oil storage warehouse in the operation period as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 5, comprehensive prevention measures are taken according to the operation evaluation result of the oil storage warehouse; when the water discharge is large, the water pumping quantity of the pumping station is reduced by reducing the water curtain pressure parameter in the water curtain system; when oil leakage is possible or oil leakage is possible in the short-term future or the risk is high, the water seal pressure is increased by increasing the water curtain pressure parameter in the water curtain system, and the oil leakage risk is reduced; furthermore, the operation benefit can be improved by adjusting the distance between the water curtain holes.
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