CN111160677A - Accident scenario construction method and system for accident scenario construction - Google Patents
Accident scenario construction method and system for accident scenario construction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention provides an accident scene construction method and a system for constructing accident scenes, and relates to the technical field of safety science and engineering emergency management methods. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing and determining typical significant situations by a series of methods according to the significant risk source determined by the risk assessment report of the enterprise; and according to a three-dimensional modeling technology, three-dimensional modeling is carried out on the typical important scene, and the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene are simulated by CFD software. According to the technical scheme, a large amount of basic data provided by an enterprise are counted and analyzed to determine the typical important situation, modeling and simulation calculation are carried out on the typical important situation, the typical important situation can be displayed in a picture form, and is more vivid and convenient for staff to understand, training can be carried out on the basis of the determined typical important situation, and the emergency capacity of the enterprise and the staff to serious accidents which may occur in the future is effectively improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of safety science and engineering emergency management methods, in particular to an accident scene construction method and a system for accident scene construction.
Background
In order to effectively prevent and deal with major industrial emergencies, emergency management in the whole processes of prevention and emergency preparation, detection early warning, emergency response and rescue, after-the-fact recovery and the like must be enhanced. For a particularly important emergency with low occurrence probability but extremely serious consequences, strategic research and emergency preparation work is carried out in advance by adopting a theory and a method of 'situation-response', and the method is an effective method proposed by the national and international emergency management academy in the year.
The major emergency scenario is a reasonable assumption of a particularly major emergency that may occur in a country, region or industry within a certain period of time in the future, and is a strategic thinking tool for emergency preparation of an uncertain future disaster. The scene is scientifically described about the possibility of occurrence, the mode and the process of occurrence and development, the possible serious consequences, the corresponding action to be taken and the like of a certain type of event, and is not an accurate forecast of a specific event which is likely to occur in the future, but an understanding and expression based on the general rule of the event under a set environment. The event scenario helps to better understand the accident disaster situation that may occur in the future leading to serious consequences, thereby making emergency preparations. The situation can be used for perfecting an emergency plan system, checking and evaluating the existing emergency plans, checking emergency resources and capacity, guiding emergency training and drilling and the like, and accordingly systematically improving the emergency capacity of regions and industries.
At present, although the scene construction is researched at home and abroad to a certain extent, a set of flow scene construction method is not formed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides an accident scene construction method, which comprises the following steps: determining typical significant situations according to risk assessment reports of enterprises; and according to a three-dimensional modeling technology, carrying out three-dimensional modeling on the typical important scene, and carrying out simulation calculation so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
Optionally, the determining a typical significant scenario according to the risk assessment report of the enterprise includes: determining that a danger source of major accident hidden danger exists in the enterprise according to the risk assessment report; determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source; and determining the typical significant scenario according to all accident scenarios.
Optionally, the determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source includes: for the danger source, determining a key event corresponding to the danger source; and establishing a bow-tie structure chart by using the key event as a center by using a method for identifying the danger of the important accident, wherein the bow-tie structure chart comprises an event tree and an accident tree aiming at the key event.
Optionally, the determining, for the risk source, a key event corresponding to the risk source includes: determining a device type of the hazard source; determining a material state according to the equipment type; determining key events of the equipment respectively corresponding to each substance state.
Optionally, the determining the typical significant scenario according to all accident scenarios includes: utilizing an accident model to analyze the consequences of all the accident situations; determining the consequences of all the event scenarios according to property loss, casualties, environmental impact and social impact based on the consequence analysis; determining the occurrence probability of all accident situations based on a Bayesian method; and determining the typical significant scenario based on the consequences of all the accident scenarios and the occurrence probabilities of all the accident scenarios.
Optionally, the method further includes: and establishing a fishbone map for the typical important scene according to the time sequence.
Accordingly, the present invention also provides a system for accident scenario construction, the system comprising: the evaluation module is used for determining typical significant situations according to the risk evaluation report of the enterprise; and the processing module is used for carrying out three-dimensional modeling on the typical important scene according to a three-dimensional modeling technology and carrying out simulation calculation so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
Optionally, the evaluation module is configured to perform the following operations to determine a typical significant scenario: determining that a danger source of major accident hidden danger exists in the enterprise according to the risk assessment report; determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source; and determining the typical significant scenario according to all accident scenarios.
Optionally, the evaluation module is configured to perform the following operations to determine the typical significant scenario according to all accident scenarios: utilizing an accident model to analyze the consequences of all the accident situations; determining the consequences of all accident scenarios according to property loss, casualties, environmental impact and social impact based on the consequence analysis; determining the occurrence probability of all accident situations based on a Bayesian method; and determining the typical significant scenario based on the consequences of all the accident scenarios and the occurrence probabilities of all the accident scenarios.
Optionally, the processing module is further configured to create a fishbone map for the typical significant scenario according to a time sequence.
According to the technical scheme, a large amount of basic data provided by the risk assessment report of the enterprise are counted and analyzed to determine the typical important situation, modeling and simulation calculation are carried out on the typical important situation, the typical important situation can be displayed in a picture form, the typical important situation is vivid and convenient for staff to understand, training and the like can be performed on the basis of the determined typical important situation, and the emergency capacity of the enterprise and the staff for serious accidents which may occur in the future is effectively improved.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the detailed description which follows.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the embodiments of the invention without limiting the embodiments of the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of an accident scenario construction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2A is a STAT-EQ matrix table;
FIG. 2B is a EQ-CE matrix table;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a bow tie configuration;
FIG. 4 is a schematic illustration of a fishbone map;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for accident scenario construction according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention refers to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating embodiments of the invention, are given by way of illustration and explanation only, not limitation.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing an accident scenario, where the method includes: and determining the typical significant situation according to the risk assessment report of the enterprise, and performing three-dimensional modeling and simulation calculation on the determined typical significant situation, so that the construction of the typical significant situation can be realized.
According to the technical scheme, typical important scenes which may exist in an enterprise can be screened out, and the consequences and the influence range which may be generated by accidents under the condition of no protective measures can be displayed by carrying out three-dimensional modeling and simulation calculation on the typical important scenes.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a specific accident scene construction method, and the flow chart of the method is shown in figure 1.
Specifically, the embodiment of the invention provides a method for determining typical significant situations according to risk assessment reports of enterprises.
Firstly, according to the information such as risk assessment reports provided by enterprises, equipment or units with more dangerous consequences and more serious consequences are selected, namely, dangerous sources with serious accident hidden dangers exist in the enterprises.
The data may include, in addition to a risk assessment report provided by the enterprise itself, data such as drawing type data (plan view, elevation view, single equipment view, process flow diagram, fire fighting equipment distribution diagram, equipment diagram 3D file, etc.) relating to devices or units in the enterprise, substances (types, properties, quantities, etc. of hazardous chemical substances relating to devices or units in the enterprise), emergency resources (basic data such as emergency organization, team, vehicle, material and equipment), emergency plans relating to devices or units in the enterprise, field disposal plans, and statistics of all accident data related to devices or units in the enterprise that have occurred.
When selecting dangerous equipment or units with serious consequences according to the data provided by enterprises, the following screening principles should be followed: with some representativeness and typicality (e.g., when building accident scenarios for petrochemical enterprises, selected accident plants/facilities are common within the petrochemical industry, such as crude oil tanks, ethylene oxide plants, etc.); the severity of the consequences is high and the loss is large; the influence range and the treatment difficulty are large; with the possibility of occurrence (which historically occurred within the enterprise/industry).
Further, after determining the hazard source with the significant accident potential, all accident scenarios for the hazard source need to be determined.
In particular, all accident scenarios for the hazard source may be determined using the identify important accident hazard method (MIMAH).
First, a critical event corresponding to a hazard source needs to be determined for the hazard source.
Through the matrix table shown in fig. 2A and fig. 2B, in the case that the equipment type of the hazard source has been determined, the key event of the equipment corresponding to each material state is determined according to the material state corresponding to the equipment type.
Specifically, the equipment types are roughly divided into 16 types, including a solid bulk storage equipment EQ1, a solid independent package storage equipment EQ2, a liquid independent package storage equipment EQ3, a pressure storage equipment EQ4, a filling storage equipment EQ5, an outdoor storage equipment EQ6, a low-temperature storage equipment EQ, a pressure transport equipment EQ8, a normal-pressure storage transport equipment EQ9, a pipeline EQ10, an intermediate storage equipment EQ11 integrated into the process, a chemical reaction equipment EQ12, a substance or chemical separation equipment EQ13 of a material, an energy supply equipment EQ14, a packaging equipment EQ15, and other equipment EQ 16.
Specifically, the state of matter is roughly divided into four, solid, liquid, two-phase flow and gas/vapor.
As shown in FIG. 2A, after determining the type of equipment to which the hazard source belongs, the status of the material included in the hazard source can be determined. For example, where the hazard source belongs to the solid bulk storage EQ1, it includes material states that are only solids, where the hazard source belongs to the conduit EQ10, it includes material states that may be liquids, two-phase flows, and gases/vapors, and where the hazard source belongs to the chemical reaction apparatus EQ12, it includes material states that may be solids, liquids, two-phase flows, and gases/vapors.
After the equipment type and the material state included in each equipment type are determined, the key event corresponding to the hazard source can be determined according to fig. 2B.
Critical Events (CE) can be classified into 12 categories, including decomposition (CE1), explosion (CE2), gas transport (CE3), liquid transport (CE4), fire (CE5), gas container leakage (CE6), liquid container leakage (CE7), liquid pipe leakage (CE8), gas pipe leakage (CE9), major rupture (CE10), container rupture (CE11), and roof collapse (CE 12).
For example, when the hazard source belongs to the solid bulk storage EQ1, it is determined that the included material state is only solid, and thus it may be determined that the key events that may be generated are decomposition (CE1), explosion (CE2), gas transport (CE3), liquid transport (CE4), fire (CE5), when the hazard source belongs to the conduit EQ10, it may be determined that the included material state thereof is liquid, two-phase flow, and gas/vapor, and thus it may be determined that the key events that may be generated are fire (CE5), liquid conduit leakage (CE8), gas conduit leakage (CE9), and major rupture (CE10), when the hazard source belongs to the chemical reaction apparatus EQ12, it may be determined that the included material state thereof is solid, liquid, two-phase flow, and gas/vapor, and thus it may be determined that the key events that may be generated are fire (CE5), gas container leakage (CE6), liquid container leakage (CE7), and fire (CE5), and gas/vapor, Liquid line leakage (CE8), gas line leakage (CE9), major rupture (CE 10).
After the key event is determined, a bow-tie structure diagram can be established by taking the determined key event as the center by using a method for identifying the danger of the important accident.
In the process of analyzing all accident situations of the hazard source, an accident tree analysis method is needed to be used for establishing accident trees corresponding to all the determined key events one to one. The accident tree has a certain logic sequence, is connected with the AND gate and the OR gate to form a five-level hierarchical relationship, and sequentially comprises the following steps: undesired Events (UE), Detailed Direct Cause (DDC), Direct Cause (DC), sufficient requirements (NSC), and Critical Events (CE).
In addition, before the fault tree is established, a detailed understanding of the operating conditions of the plant and the external conditions, etc. is required. In addition, in the process of establishing the accident tree, a plurality of accident trees can be established according to the same key event and the factors such as the service life cycle of the equipment.
By building an event tree for a key event, the direct cause and the potential cause of the key event can be analyzed.
In addition, an event tree analysis method is also needed to analyze all the determined key events, identify possible situations, and then establish an event tree corresponding to each key event. When a key event occurs, connecting the keys before and after the accident situation, like a failure pipeline, may result in 5 links, such as a secondary key event (SCE), a tertiary key event (TCE), a Dangerous Phenomenon (DP), and a Major Event (ME). Wherein the main event is a significant effect of the identified dangerous phenomena on the object to be analyzed. In addition, after an accident occurs, various dangerous situations can occur, which may include steam cloud explosion, tank fire, pool fire, toxic gas cloud, boiling pool fire, jet fire, flash fire, dust explosion, environmental destruction, fragment projection, fireball, and fireball generated by overpressure, etc.
The structure of the bow-tie constructed according to the above method is shown in fig. 3, which is centered on a key event CE, and the left side of the key event CE is an accident tree diagram, and the right side of the key event CE is an event tree diagram. The bow-tie structure diagrams provided by the embodiments of the present invention are only schematic, and each bow-tie structure diagram needs to be determined according to specific situations.
According to the established event tree diagram and accident tree diagram aiming at the key events, and by utilizing the bowknot structure diagram established by the method for identifying the important accident risks, all accident situations which may occur to all danger sources can be identified without considering any safety protection system.
In addition, as can be seen from the above example, the same hazard source may have different types of critical events, and therefore, in order to be able to determine all accident scenarios of all hazard sources, a bow-tie structure diagram needs to be established for each critical event that may be generated by each hazard source.
In addition, in the process of establishing the bow-tie structure chart by using the method for identifying important accident risks and determining all accident situations, parameters related to key events, including the caliber of a broken container or pipeline, the leakage rate, the leakage event, the leakage amount, the type of leaked substances and the like, are obtained.
Further, after determining all accident scenarios, a typical significant scenario of the all accident scenarios needs to be determined.
For example, it may be determined comprehensively from the consequences and the occurrence probability of individual accident scenarios of all accident scenarios which accident scenarios may belong to a typically significant scenario.
The embodiment of the invention provides a method for determining the consequences of an accident scenario, which comprises the following steps: and (4) analyzing the consequences of all accident scenes by using the accident model.
The accident model can be a fire disaster model, an explosion model, a toxic gas leakage model and other various safety accident models, and specific parameters and specific conditions of each accident model are variable and can be adjusted or modified according to actual conditions or actual requirements.
In addition, in the process of analyzing the consequences of the accident scene, the single accident model is not limited to be adopted for analysis, and a plurality of models can be simultaneously adopted for combined analysis, so that the consequences of the determined accident scene are more real and reliable.
After determining the possible consequences of all accidents according to the accident model, the severity of the consequences of all accident scenarios can be determined mainly according to four factors, namely loss of property calculation, casualties, environmental impact and social impact.
When the severity of the consequences of the accident situation is determined, the weights of property calculation loss, casualties, environmental influence and social influence can be determined according to the specific situation and the actual requirement of the accident situation, and then the consequences are analyzed according to the weights of the four factors, so that the result of the severity of the consequences analyzed by scoring can better accord with the standard and the actual situation of an enterprise.
Optionally, when determining the consequence of the accident scenario, the production characteristics of the enterprise, geographic environment, human environment and other factors may also be considered, and the consequence of the accident scenario is determined comprehensively.
In addition, after determining the consequences of all accident scenarios, the accident scenario with complex processing and serious influence on the enterprise can be reasonably selected as the accident scenario with larger consequences according to the actual conditions of the enterprise, such as bearing capacity, processing capacity and the like. Since the severity of the consequences of an accident scenario that can be accepted by different types and different-scale enterprises and the criteria for evaluating the consequences of the accident scenario are different, when selecting an accident scenario with a large consequence, the comprehensive factors and various parameters of the enterprises need to be considered, the consequences of some accident scenarios cannot be considered to be serious alone, and the consequences of some accident scenarios cannot be considered to be serious.
After the consequences of all accident situations are determined, the accident situation with serious consequences can be selected as a typical important situation according to the actual situation.
Optionally, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a method for determining a typical significant scenario, where the method determines the typical significant scenario according to occurrence probabilities of all accident scenarios.
For example, a probability analysis may be performed for all accident scenarios using a bayesian network based on the determined bow tie structure graph.
The Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph for expressing causal relationships and dependency relationships among events, and mainly comprises network nodes and edges, wherein each variable (namely a certain event) is represented by one node in the network, and direct causal relationships among the variables are represented by directed arcs.
Specifically, the Bayesian network can be directly constructed on the basis of a large amount of data, and the Bayesian network can be established according to statistics and expert knowledge of historical accidents. After the Bayesian network is established, the risk analysis can be performed on the evolution process of all accidents by using the reasoning capability of the Bayesian network, the sensitivity of node variables of the Bayesian network to reasoning results is inspected, and the occurrence probability of accident scenarios is determined.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, the occurrence probability of the accident scene is determined by adopting the Bayesian network, so that the occurrence probability of the same accident scene with different severity degrees under the influence of different factors can be estimated.
Optionally, the occurrence probability of all accident scenarios can also be determined by other probability analysis methods.
After determining the probability of occurrence of all accident scenarios, a typical significant scenario may be determined based on the probability of occurrence.
For example, a preset value may be set, when the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is greater than the preset value, it may be determined that the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is high, and when the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is less than the preset value, it may be determined that the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is low.
Optionally, a plurality of preset values may be set, and when the occurrence probability of the accident scenario respectively reaches different preset values, whether the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is within a range that can be borne by an enterprise is determined according to the capability of the enterprise.
Since the typical significant scenario is determined only according to the consequences of the accident scenario or only according to the accident scenario occurrence probability, the consideration is not comprehensive enough, the determined typical significant scenario may not be typical enough, or the accident consequences are light. The invention therefore also provides a preferred embodiment, integrating the probability of occurrence of all accident scenarios and the consequences of said accident scenarios to determine whether an accident scenario belongs to a typically significant scenario.
When the consequences and the occurrence probability of all accident situations are integrated to determine whether a certain accident situation belongs to a typical major situation, a user can set various indexes for evaluation. For example, for the occurrence probability of an accident scenario, a plurality of preset values can be set as judgment criteria, and for the consequences of the accident scenario, various factors such as property loss, casualties, environmental impact, social impact, enterprise bearing capacity and the like can be considered comprehensively.
For example, a preset value may be set, when the occurrence probability of the accident scenario is greater than the preset value, the accident scenario is considered as the alternative typical significant scenario, then the consequence of the alternative typical significant scenario is judged, and if the consequence of the alternative typical significant scenario has a low influence, the alternative typical significant scenario is not the typical significant scenario.
It should be noted that, the above-mentioned determining the consequences of the accident scenario and determining the occurrence probability of the accident scenario are not sequential, and may be performed simultaneously.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention can simultaneously analyze various safety accidents (such as explosion, fire, leakage and the like), can comprehensively consider the mutual influence and restriction among different types of safety accidents, enables the analysis result to be closer to the real situation which can happen possibly, provides a more real accident scene for enterprises, can optimize an emergency plan aiming at the actual emergency capacity of the enterprises, enhances the capacity of enterprise staff to deal with major emergency events, and can provide a solution strategy in the shortest event even if the safety accidents happen really, thereby minimizing property loss and casualties.
In addition, according to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, typical important scenes can be selected from all accident scenes which may occur to an enterprise, and a plan is provided for the enterprise aiming at the typical important scenes, so that the enterprise can determine the focus in preparation and exercise at ordinary times.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, after the typical important scene is determined, the typical important scene is subjected to three-dimensional modeling so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
The image acquisition device can be used for acquiring images inside the enterprise to establish a three-dimensional live-action picture.
Optionally, the image capturing device may be a high-definition camera, a three-dimensional laser scanner, or other devices capable of capturing images.
After the images in the enterprise are collected, the collected images can be processed through the processing module, and three-dimensional modeling is achieved.
Optionally, the acquired images inside the enterprise may be processed and three-dimensionally modeled by a computer, an image workstation, or the like.
After the live-action modeling is completed, simulation calculation can be carried out on the selected typical important scenes to obtain the occurrence process of the accident along with the time, the influence area of the accident and the like, and the obtained simulation calculation result can assist in explaining various aspects such as disaster types, casualty conditions, property loss, economic influences, social influences, environmental health influences and the like.
Specifically, the processing module may perform simulation calculation based on the established three-dimensional real-scene model based on the data obtained in the process of determining the typical significant scene (including the caliber of the broken container or pipeline, the leakage rate, the leakage event, the type of the leaked substance, and the like) and the surrounding parameters (including the wind direction, the wind speed, the air temperature, the humidity, the atmospheric stability, the surrounding specific conditions, and the like) when the simulated accident occurs.
Optionally, the simulation process of the typical important scene can be displayed in an animation mode, so that the simulation process is vivid and is beneficial to the understanding of enterprise staff, and a better education effect can be achieved when the simulation process is used for practicing and training and the like.
In addition, the fish bone map can be established according to the occurrence process of the typical important scene in time sequence. The fish bone diagram is shown in fig. 4, and the time is taken as an axis, and the accident evolution process and the accident emergency treatment process can be respectively represented above and below the axis.
Specifically, the fishbone map may include the following: time of occurrence, place of occurrence, medium/accident material, direct cause of accident, casualty situation, infrastructure damage, evacuation/migration population, pollution situation, economic loss, disposal time, recovery period, critical material consumption situation, emergency rescue experience, emergency rescue training, general impact explanation, and the like.
When the fishbone map is established, the accident situation evolution process can be further divided into a breeding stage, an occurrence stage, an expansion stage and a control and recovery stage. Wherein, each stage is set according to the sequence of the node time axis, and the determined basic evolution process of the typical important scene is made into the fishbone diagram shown in fig. 4 based on the analysis process and the simulation calculation result.
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for accident scenario construction according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 5, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a system for accident scenario construction, where the system includes: the evaluation module 1 is used for determining typical significant situations according to risk evaluation reports of enterprises; and the processing module 2 is used for carrying out three-dimensional modeling on the typical important scene according to a three-dimensional modeling technology, and carrying out simulation calculation so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
The processing module 2 may be a central processing unit, a general-purpose processor, a special-purpose processor, a conventional processor, a single-chip microprocessor, a plurality of microprocessors, a controller, a microcontroller, a state machine, or other devices capable of implementing the above functions.
Alternatively, the evaluation module 1 may determine a typical significant scenario by performing the following operations: determining a hazard source with major accident potential in the enterprise according to the risk assessment report provided by the enterprise; determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source; and determining the typical significant scenario according to all accident scenarios.
In particular, the evaluation module 1 can determine all accident scenarios for the hazard source using the identify important accident hazard method (MIMAH). It includes: determining a key event corresponding to a danger source aiming at the danger source; after determining the key event, a bow tie structure diagram is established centering on the determined key event. All accident situations which may occur can be identified by establishing a bowknot structure chart for each key event of the hazard source.
The evaluation module 1 can also perform outcome analysis on all accident scenarios and determine typical significant scenarios according to the outcomes of all accident scenarios.
Specifically, the severity of the consequences of all accident scenarios can be determined using the accident model, mainly based on four factors, namely, the loss of property calculations, casualties, environmental impact, and social impact.
In the process of analyzing the consequences of the accident scene, the single accident model is not limited to be adopted for analysis, and a plurality of models can be simultaneously adopted for combined analysis, so that the consequences of the determined accident scene are more real and reliable.
After determining the consequences of all accident scenarios, the accident scenario with complex processing and serious influence on the enterprise can be reasonably selected as the accident scenario with larger consequences according to the actual conditions of the enterprise, such as bearing capacity, processing capacity and the like. Since the severity of the consequences of an accident scenario that can be accepted by different types and different-scale enterprises and the criteria for evaluating the consequences of the accident scenario are different, when selecting an accident scenario with a large consequence, the comprehensive factors and various parameters of the enterprises need to be considered, the consequences of some accident scenarios cannot be considered to be serious alone, and the consequences of some accident scenarios cannot be considered to be serious.
The evaluation module 1 may also determine the occurrence probability of all accident scenarios and determine typical significant scenarios according to the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios.
Specifically, probability analysis may be performed on all accident scenarios by using a bayesian network based on the determined bow tie structure diagram, so as to determine the occurrence probability of each accident scenario.
Preferably, the evaluation module 1 can also determine typical big scenes by integrating the consequences of all accident scenarios and the occurrence probability of all accident scenarios.
Further, the processing module 2 may also establish a fishbone diagram which takes time as an axis and the upper and lower sides of the axis may respectively represent the accident evolution process and the accident emergency disposal process according to the time sequence.
Specifically, the fishbone map may include the following: time of occurrence, place of occurrence, medium/accident material, direct cause of accident, casualty situation, infrastructure damage, evacuation/migration population, pollution situation, economic loss, disposal time, recovery period, critical material consumption situation, emergency rescue experience, emergency rescue training, general impact explanation, and the like.
For specific details and benefits of the system for constructing accident scenarios provided by the present invention, reference may be made to the above description of the method for constructing accident scenarios provided by the present invention, and details are not described herein again.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, the embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications can be made to the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention within the technical idea of the embodiments of the present invention, and these simple modifications all belong to the protection scope of the embodiments of the present invention.
It should be noted that the various features described in the above embodiments may be combined in any suitable manner without departing from the scope of the invention. In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the embodiments of the present invention do not describe every possible combination.
Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps in the method for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by a program instructing related hardware, where the program is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions to enable a (may be a single chip, a chip, etc.) or a processor (processor) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in the embodiments of the present application. And the aforementioned storage medium includes: a U-disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and other various media capable of storing program codes.
In addition, any combination of various different implementation manners of the embodiments of the present invention is also possible, and the embodiments of the present invention should be considered as disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention as long as the combination does not depart from the spirit of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. An accident scenario construction method, characterized in that the method comprises:
determining typical significant situations according to risk assessment reports of enterprises; and
and according to a three-dimensional modeling technology, carrying out three-dimensional modeling on the typical important scene, and carrying out simulation calculation so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a typical milestone scenario from a risk assessment report for a business comprises:
determining that a danger source of major accident hidden danger exists in the enterprise according to the risk assessment report;
determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source; and
and determining the typical significant scene according to all accident scenes.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the determining all accident scenarios for the hazard comprises:
for the danger source, determining a key event corresponding to the danger source; and
establishing a bow-tie structure chart by taking the key event as a center by utilizing a method for identifying important accident dangers,
wherein the bow-tie structure graph includes an event tree and an incident tree for the key event.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the determining, for the hazard source, a critical event corresponding to the hazard source comprises:
determining a device type of the hazard source;
determining a material state according to the equipment type;
determining key events of the equipment respectively corresponding to each substance state.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining said typical milestone scenario from said all incident scenarios comprises:
utilizing an accident model to analyze the consequences of all the accident situations;
determining the consequences of all accident scenarios according to property loss, casualties, environmental impact and social impact based on the consequence analysis;
determining the occurrence probability of all accident situations based on a Bayesian method; and
determining the typical significant scenario based on the consequences of all accident scenarios and the probability of occurrence of all accident scenarios.
6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
and establishing a fishbone map for the typical important scene according to the time sequence.
7. A system for incident scene construction, the system comprising:
the evaluation module is used for determining typical significant situations according to the risk evaluation report of the enterprise; and
and the processing module is used for carrying out three-dimensional modeling on the typical important scene according to a three-dimensional modeling technology and carrying out simulation calculation so as to demonstrate the accident occurrence process and the accident influence area of the typical important scene.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the evaluation module is configured to perform the following operations to determine a typical significant scenario:
determining that a danger source of major accident hidden danger exists in the enterprise according to the risk assessment report;
determining all accident scenarios for the hazard source; and
and determining the typical significant scene according to all accident scenes.
9. The system of claim 8, wherein the evaluation module is configured to determine the typical milestone scenario from the all incident scenarios by:
utilizing an accident model to analyze the consequences of all the accident situations;
determining the consequences of all accident scenarios according to property loss, casualties, environmental impact and social impact based on the consequence analysis;
determining the occurrence probability of all accident situations based on a Bayesian method; and
determining the typical significant scenario based on the consequences of all accident scenarios and the probability of occurrence of all accident scenarios.
10. The system of claim 7, wherein the processing module is further configured to create a fishbone map of the typical significant scene in chronological order.
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