CN111091293A - Dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development, which comprises the following steps: firstly, judging the reservoir type of the target reservoir, and then determining the development scale of the target reservoir and the comprehensive evaluation score of the target reservoir; determining the change amplitude of the comprehensive score of the target oil reservoir, the natural decreasing absolute value of the target oil reservoir and the water content rise rate absolute value of the target oil reservoir according to the content; thereby obtaining the early warning level of the target oil reservoir; the early warning method can comprehensively and truly reflect the dynamic change in the actual development process of the oil reservoir, can quickly and accurately reflect the development contradiction of the oil reservoir, guides the later-stage adjustment of the oil reservoir, has strong operability, really realizes the effective early warning of the dynamic change of the oil reservoir development, ensures the controlled operation of the oil field development, can realize the timely early warning of the target oil reservoir, and provides a treatment basis for carrying out classification treatment and improving the oil reservoir development effect by combining the development characteristics.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of oilfield development evaluation and early warning, and relates to a dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development.
Background
In the process of oil reservoir development, the development situation and the change of an oil reservoir are closely tracked by setting the reasonable change range of oil reservoir development evaluation and key indexes, the oil reservoir with poor development situation is developed and early warned, prevention in advance, early discovery and effective treatment are achieved, a reasonable and effective treatment mode is timely adopted according to the oil reservoir early warning condition, a targeted adjusting measure is formulated, the method is an effective means for improving the oil reservoir development level, and the method has important significance for ensuring controlled operation of oil field development, improving the oil field development level and improving the final oil reservoir recovery ratio.
The existing oil reservoir evaluation technology mainly aims at evaluating the development level and the development condition of an oil reservoir, and comprises two aspects of qualitative and quantitative evaluation. Tracking and early warning are limited to early warning of single-well yield change, and mainly aiming at first-line operators, oil reservoir researchers have single consideration factors and one-sidedly contents, and finally the control of oil reservoir engineers on the trend of oil reservoir development adjustment and development situation change is poor, so that a control and early warning method for the whole development dynamic change of an oil reservoir is still lacked at present.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the invention provides an early warning method for the development level dynamic change of an oil reservoir, which can realize timely early warning on a target oil reservoir, is classified and managed by combining development characteristics, and provides more accurate basis for improving the development effect of the oil reservoir.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that the dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development comprises the following steps:
step 1) comprehensively considering the oil reservoir type, the oil reservoir scale, the change amplitude of comprehensive evaluation score, a natural decreasing absolute value and a water content increasing rate absolute value of a target oil reservoir, and establishing an early warning model;
setting threshold ranges in the early warning model respectively aiming at different oil reservoir scales in different oil reservoir types, and setting the threshold range corresponding to the target oil reservoir scale aiming at the change amplitude, the natural decreasing absolute value and the water content increasing rate absolute value of the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir in each different threshold range;
setting three levels of early warning, namely red early warning, orange early warning and yellow early warning from high to low in the early warning model; the variation amplitude, the natural decreasing absolute value and the water content increasing rate absolute value of different oil reservoir scale comprehensive evaluation scores in each type of oil reservoir fall into one threshold range, and corresponding early warning levels are generated for the different oil reservoir scale comprehensive evaluation scores;
step 2) judging the reservoir type of the target reservoir according to the reservoir characteristics, the seepage characteristics, the development rules, the development stages and the development characteristics of the target reservoir;
step 3) determining the oil reservoir scale of the target oil reservoir according to the annual oil production quantity of the target oil reservoir;
step 4) determining a comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the target oil reservoir development level evaluation system and in combination with an industrial standard;
step 5) determining the variation range of the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir stage obtained in the step 4);
step 6) determining a natural decreasing absolute value of the target oil reservoir according to the unit time yield of the actual development of the target oil reservoir;
step 7) obtaining the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise of the target oil reservoir according to the stage water-containing change, the yield per unit time and the reserve of the target oil reservoir;
and 8) determining the early warning level of the target oil reservoir by adopting the model established in the step 1 according to the oil reservoir type obtained in the step 2, the oil reservoir scale obtained in the step 3, the comprehensive score change amplitude obtained in the step 5, the natural decrement absolute value obtained in the step 6 and the water content rise rate absolute value obtained in the step 7 of the target oil reservoir.
In the step 2, when the target reservoir size threshold ranges are respectively as follows: the annual oil yield is more than or equal to a ten thousand tons, b ten thousand tons is less than or equal to a ten thousand tons, c ten thousand tons is less than or equal to b ten thousand tons, a is 10, b is 5, and c is 2.
The comprehensive evaluation score in the step 4 is a numerical value of 0-100, the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the better the oil reservoir development effect is, the higher the development level is, the comprehensive score variation amplitude in the step 5 is the percentage of variation of the comprehensive evaluation score in a certain stage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, D is the variation range of the comprehensive score;
F1comprehensively evaluating scores and natural numbers for the starting points;
f2 is the end point comprehensive evaluation score, natural number;
when D < 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is increased, and the oil reservoir development situation is improved; d is 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is unchanged, and the oil reservoir development situation is stable; d > 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is reduced, and the oil reservoir development situation is deteriorated.
And 6, after the natural decreasing rate of the target oil deposit is used for deducting the yield increased by various yield increasing measures, the natural change rate or the decreasing rate of the oil and gas yield of the old well in unit time is calculated according to the following percentage:
in the formula, Dt is from-natural rate of decrease (%);
a, oil production (ton) of the old well in the same period of the year;
b, the accumulated oil production (ton) of the old well in 1-n months in the current year;
c, increasing oil quantity (ton) by 1-n month of the old well in the current year in an accumulated measure;
wherein, the old well refers to the oil well which has been put into production at the end of last 12 months in the year, and the new well refers to the oil well which is put into production in the current year.
The absolute value of the water content increase rate of the target oil reservoir in the step 7 refers to the water content increase percentage of each 1% of produced geological reserves, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein S represents an absolute value of a water content increase rate;
fw1-reporting end-stage integrated water content (%);
fw2-integrated water content (%) last year for 12 months;
R1-reporting the end production (%);
R2production degree (%) at 12 months in the last year.
The reservoir types include medium high-low permeability reservoirs, ultra low-ultra low permeability reservoirs, and tight oil.
The red early warning is that the development level is reduced in a grading way, and the development index exceeds 2 times of the average value of similar oil reservoirs; the orange early warning is that the development level is maintained at the original level or degraded in a grading manner, the development index exceeds the average value of the similar oil reservoirs by less than 1.5-2 times, the yellow early warning is that the development level is maintained at the original level or degraded in a grading manner, and the development index exceeds the average value of the similar oil reservoirs by less than 1.0-1.5 times.
For an oil reservoir with annual oil production more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons, comprehensively judging the early warning level by using three indexes of comprehensive score change amplitude, natural decrement rate and absolute value of water content rise rate, if any one of the three indexes is met, early warning can be carried out to the level, and for an oil reservoir with the oil reservoir scale of 2 ten thousand tons or less than 5 ten thousand tons, judging the early warning level by using only one index of comprehensive score change amplitude; when the target oil reservoir keeps an early warning level for two years, the early warning level of the oil reservoir is increased by one level; the early warning machine when the oil reservoir type is a medium-high low permeability oil reservoir is shown in table 1,
TABLE 1 early warning mechanism for high-low permeability reservoir development
The ultra-low-permeability reservoir development early warning mechanism is shown in table 2,
TABLE 2 ultra-low permeability reservoir development early warning mechanism
The early warning mechanism for tight oil development is shown in table 3,
TABLE 3 dense oil development early warning mechanism
Compared with the prior art, the invention has at least the following beneficial effects: the method comprehensively considers the reservoir type, the reservoir scale, the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score, the natural decreasing absolute value and the water content rise rate absolute value of the target reservoir, and establishes an early warning model; then according to the oil reservoir type of the target oil reservoir, respectively determining a comprehensive evaluation score according to a target oil reservoir development level evaluation system, obtaining the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score, and obtaining a natural decreasing absolute value from the unit time yield of the target oil reservoir; the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise of the target oil reservoir is obtained according to the stage water-containing change, the yield per unit time and the reserve, and the obtained parameters are simultaneously input into an early warning model for evaluation, so that the early warning method can comprehensively and truly reflect the dynamic change in the actual oil reservoir development process, can quickly and accurately reflect the development contradiction of the oil reservoir, can provide reference for guiding the later adjustment of the oil reservoir, has strong operability, really realizes the effective early warning of the dynamic change of the oil reservoir development, and is favorable for ensuring the controlled operation of the oil field development; the early warning can be realized in time for the target oil reservoir, the treatment basis is provided for carrying out classification treatment and improving the oil reservoir development effect by combining the development characteristics, and then the guarantee is provided for stabilizing and even improving the oil reservoir water drive and pressure maintenance level and inhibiting the water content rise.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a plot of water cut versus production for a yellow 3 long 6 reservoir.
FIG. 2 is a comparison of the development indices for yellow 3 long 6 reservoir 2015-2016.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying tables.
A dynamic change early warning method for oil reservoir development level comprises the following steps:
step 2) judging the reservoir type of the target reservoir according to the reservoir characteristics, the seepage characteristics, the development rules, the development stages and the development characteristics of the target reservoir;
step 3) determining the oil reservoir scale of the target oil reservoir according to the annual oil production quantity of the target oil reservoir;
step 4) determining a comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the target oil reservoir development level evaluation system and in combination with an industrial standard;
step 5) determining the variation range of the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir stage;
step 6) determining a natural decreasing absolute value of the target oil reservoir according to the actual development condition of the target oil reservoir;
step 7) obtaining the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise of the target oil reservoir according to the stage water-containing change, the yield and the reserve capacity of the target oil reservoir;
and 8) determining the early warning level of the target oil reservoir according to the comprehensive score change amplitude, the natural decrement rate and the absolute value of the water content increase rate of the target oil reservoir.
The types of the oil reservoirs in the step 2) are medium-high-low permeability oil reservoirs, ultra-low-ultra-low permeability oil reservoirs and compact oil.
In the step 3), a is 10, b is 5, and c is 2; when the target reservoir size is: the annual oil yield is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, the annual oil yield is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, and the annual oil yield is less than or equal to 2 ten thousand tons and less than 5 ten thousand tons.
The comprehensive evaluation score in the step 2) is a numerical value of 0-100, and the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the better the oil reservoir development effect is, and the higher the development level is.
The variation range of the comprehensive score in the step 5) is the percentage of variation of the comprehensive evaluation score in a certain stage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, D is the variation amplitude of the comprehensive score,%;
F1comprehensively evaluating scores and natural numbers for the starting points;
f2 is the end point comprehensive evaluation score, natural number;
when D < 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is increased, and the oil reservoir development situation is improved; d is 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is unchanged, and the oil reservoir development situation is stable; d > 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is reduced, and the oil reservoir development situation is deteriorated;
the annual oil yield of the invention is the verification annual oil yield.
When the oil reservoir type is a medium-high low permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score amplitude is more than 25%, orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 25% and yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 20%; the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 35%, orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 35% when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is 30%, and yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 30%; 2 ten thousand tons or less of oil reservoir scale is less than 5 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 45%, orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 45% when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is 35%, and yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 35%, as shown in table 1;
when the oil reservoir type is an ultra-low-ultra-low permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 20%, orange early warning is given when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 20% by 15%, and yellow early warning is given when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 15%; the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 30%, the orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 20%, and the yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 15%; 2 ten thousand tons or less of oil reservoir scale is less than 5 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is greater than 40%, orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 40% when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 30%, and yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 30%, as shown in table 2;
when the oil reservoir type is compact oil, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 15%, orange early warning is given when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is 8% or less than 15%, and yellow early warning is given when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is 5% or less than 8%; when the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 20 percent, the red early warning is carried out, when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 20 percent, the orange early warning is carried out, and when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 10 percent, the yellow early warning is carried out; 2 ten thousand tons or less of oil reservoir scale is less than 5 ten thousand tons, red early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score is greater than 40%, orange early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 40% in 25%, and yellow early warning is given when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 25%, as shown in table 3;
the natural decreasing rate of the target oil deposit in the step 6) indicates the natural changing rate or the decreasing rate of the oil gas yield in the old well in unit time after the yield increased by various yield increasing measures is removed, the unit is percentage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, Dt is from-natural rate of decrease (%);
a, oil production (ton) of the old well in the same period of the year;
b, the accumulated oil production (ton) of the old well in 1-n months in the current year;
c, increasing oil quantity (ton) by 1-n month of the old well in the current year in an accumulated measure;
the old well refers to the oil well which has been put into production at the end of the last 12 months of the year, and the new well refers to the oil well which is put into production in the current year.
When the oil reservoir type is a medium-high low permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 25 percent, the early warning is red early warning, the early warning is orange early warning when the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 20 percent and is yellow early warning when the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 15 percent and less than or equal to 20 percent, and the early warning is shown;
when the oil reservoir type is an ultra-low-ultra-low permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 20 percent, the early warning is red, the early warning is orange when the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 16 percent and the early warning is yellow when the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 12 percent and less than or equal to 16 percent, as shown in table 2;
when the oil reservoir type is compact, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 30 percent, the early warning is red early warning, the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 25 percent and less than 30 percent, the early warning is orange early warning, and the early warning is yellow early warning when the natural decrement rate is more than or equal to 20 percent and less than or equal to 25 percent;
the absolute value of the water-bearing rate of rise of the target oil reservoir in the step 7) refers to the water-bearing rate of rise percentage of each 1% of geological reserves produced, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein S represents an absolute value of a water content increase rate;
fw1-reporting end-stage integrated water content (%);
fw2-integrated water content (%) last year for 12 months;
R1-reporting the end production (%);
R2production degree (%) at 12 months in the last year.
When the oil reservoir type is a medium-high permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or equal to 8, the early warning is red early warning, the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or equal to 6, the early warning is orange early warning, and the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or equal to 4 and less than or equal;
when the oil reservoir type is an ultra-low-ultra-low permeability oil reservoir, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or equal to 10, the early warning is red, the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or equal to 7 and less than 10, the early warning is orange, and the early warning is yellow when the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise is more than or;
when the oil reservoir type is dense, the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, and the oil reservoir scale is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the absolute value of the water-bearing rate of rise is more than or equal to 8, the early warning is red, the absolute value of the water-bearing rate of rise is more than or equal to 6, the early warning is orange, and the early warning is yellow when the absolute value of the water-bearing rate of rise is more than 4 and less than or equal to 6;
the early warning level of the target oil reservoir comprises three levels of early warning of red early warning, orange early warning and yellow early warning from high to low, the red early warning represents that the oil reservoir has major change, the development situation is rapidly deteriorated, and the development index far exceeds the normal range; the orange early warning represents that the oil reservoir is changed greatly, the development situation is deteriorated, and the further stable production work of the oil reservoir is influenced seriously; the yellow early warning represents that the oil reservoir has certain change, the development situation is slightly deteriorated, and the influence on the further stable production work of the oil reservoir is small;
when the target oil reservoir keeps an early warning level for two years, the early warning level of the oil reservoir is increased by one level; and for the oil reservoir with annual oil production more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons, comprehensively judging the early warning level by using three indexes of comprehensive score change amplitude, natural decrement rate and absolute value of water content rise rate, if any one of the three indexes is met, early warning can be carried out to the level, and for the oil reservoir with the oil reservoir scale of more than or equal to 2 ten thousand tons and less than 5 ten thousand tons, judging the early warning level by using only one index of comprehensive score change amplitude.
TABLE 1 early warning mechanism and treatment mode for high-low permeability reservoir development
TABLE 2 ultra-low permeability reservoir development early warning mechanism and management method
Table 3: early warning mechanism and treatment mode for dense oil development
According to the embodiment, the early-warning oil reservoir is subjected to enhanced monitoring, tracking, evaluation and comprehensive treatment according to the early-warning result, the development technical policy is optimized in time, and the oil reservoir development level is continuously improved;
example of a mine site: yellow 3 long 6 reservoir
The yellow 3-6 reservoir is located in the west part of the middle section of the slope in northern Shaanxi, has a gentle structure, is a wide and gentle west inclined rupture, belongs to a front edge subphase of a delta, develops favorable microphase types such as an underwater diversion river channel, a estuary dam, an underwater natural dike, a far sand dam and the like, has the average thickness of 10.5 meters, the depth of 2450 meters in an oil layer, the average porosity of 11.3 percent and the average permeability of 0.58mD, and belongs to an ultra-low permeability reservoir.
In 2012 and 2013, a horizontal well five-point method and a directional well diamond inverse nine-point well pattern are adopted for large-scale water injection development, and the exploitation area is 130km2Exploiting geological reserves 4686 x 104t, recoverable reserve 731X 104t。
The region develops oil reservoirs in a multilayer system, the multiple oil layers are superposed and developed, the injection-production corresponding relation is poor, the local well pattern is imperfect, the reservoir heterogeneity is strong, the section contradiction is prominent, meanwhile, due to the poor physical property of the reservoir layer in the region, a large number of low-yield and low-efficiency wells are produced, the water content of partial wells rises quickly, the oil reservoir decreases greatly in a descending manner, the water flooding effect is poor, the comprehensive evaluation score in 2015 is 57.5, the comprehensive evaluation score in 2016 is 32.5, the natural decrement rate in 2016 is 28.9%, the absolute value of the water content rise rate is 2.1, the oil yield in 2016 is 18.5 ten thousand tons, and the comprehensive score change range is (57.5-32.5)/57.5 100%, namely 43.5%; according to an ultra-low permeability-ultra-low permeability reservoir development early warning mechanism, referring to a table 1, a yellow 3-long 6-reservoir in 2016 is a red early warning reservoir, and the region is set as a comprehensive treatment block in 2017.
TABLE 4 yellow 3. Long 6 oil reservoir 2016 years development early warning results table
Treatment strategies comprise: firstly, the injection and production well pattern is perfected: fine sublayer comparison, reconsideration of injection-production correspondence, implementation of old well transfer injection on a plane, improvement of water drive control degree, development of hole filling and separate injection in the longitudinal direction, and improvement of injection-production correspondence; secondly, fine water injection management: the method has the advantages that the treatment of the under-injection well is strengthened, the formation energy is supplemented, the treatment of the shaft is strengthened, the water injection quality is improved, the water injection mode is optimized, the water control and oil stabilization are realized, the profile treatment is strengthened, and the water drive efficiency is improved; thirdly, carrying out comprehensive treatment of the horizontal well: aiming at the problems of frequent sand production of the horizontal well, high proportion of water-meeting wells and serious blockage phenomenon, carrying out horizontal well sand washing, mechanical water plugging finding test and acidification de-plugging test simultaneously to recover the productivity of the oil well; fourthly, excavation and submergence by strengthening measures: with the aim of improving the oil reservoir development effect, classification treatment is carried out according to four levels of a condition maturity area, a development contradiction area, a low pressure low yield area and a non-potential area by combining development characteristics, so that the oil reservoir development effect is improved.
After treatment, the water drive and pressure maintaining level of the oil reservoir is steadily increased, the water content increase is inhibited, the two items are decreased gradually, the absolute value of the water content increase rate is greatly reduced, the oil reservoir development situation is obviously improved, and the oil reservoir early warning is cancelled as shown in figures 1 and 2.
Claims (8)
1. A dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1) comprehensively considering the oil reservoir type, the oil reservoir scale, the change amplitude of comprehensive evaluation score, a natural decreasing absolute value and a water content increasing rate absolute value of a target oil reservoir, and establishing an early warning model;
setting threshold ranges in the early warning model respectively aiming at different oil reservoir scales in different oil reservoir types, and setting the threshold range corresponding to the target oil reservoir scale aiming at the change amplitude, the natural decreasing absolute value and the water content increasing rate absolute value of the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir in each different threshold range;
setting three levels of early warning, namely red early warning, orange early warning and yellow early warning from high to low in the early warning model; the variation amplitude, the natural decreasing absolute value and the water content increasing rate absolute value of different oil reservoir scale comprehensive evaluation scores in each type of oil reservoir fall into one threshold range, and corresponding early warning levels are generated for the different oil reservoir scale comprehensive evaluation scores;
step 2) judging the reservoir type of the target reservoir according to the reservoir characteristics, the seepage characteristics, the development rules, the development stages and the development characteristics of the target reservoir;
step 3) determining the oil reservoir scale of the target oil reservoir according to the annual oil production quantity of the target oil reservoir;
step 4) determining a comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the target oil reservoir development level evaluation system and in combination with an industrial standard;
step 5) determining the variation range of the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir according to the comprehensive evaluation score of the target oil reservoir stage obtained in the step 4);
step 6) determining a natural decreasing absolute value of the target oil reservoir according to the unit time yield of the actual development of the target oil reservoir;
step 7) obtaining the absolute value of the water-containing rate of rise of the target oil reservoir according to the stage water-containing change, the yield per unit time and the reserve of the target oil reservoir;
and 8) determining the early warning level of the target oil reservoir by adopting the model established in the step 1 according to the oil reservoir type obtained in the step 2, the oil reservoir scale obtained in the step 3, the comprehensive score change amplitude obtained in the step 5, the natural decrement absolute value obtained in the step 6 and the water content rise rate absolute value obtained in the step 7 of the target oil reservoir.
2. The dynamic early warning method for reservoir development according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, when the target reservoir size threshold ranges are respectively: the annual oil yield is more than or equal to a ten thousand tons, b ten thousand tons is less than or equal to a ten thousand tons, c ten thousand tons is less than or equal to b ten thousand tons, a is 10, b is 5, and c is 2.
3. The dynamic early warning method for reservoir development according to claim 1, wherein the comprehensive evaluation score in the step 4 is a numerical value of 0-100, the higher the comprehensive evaluation score is, the better the reservoir development effect is, the higher the development level is, the change amplitude of the comprehensive score in the step 5 is the percentage of the change of the comprehensive evaluation score in a certain stage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, D is the variation range of the comprehensive score;
F1comprehensively evaluating scores and natural numbers for the starting points;
f2 is the end point comprehensive evaluation score, natural number;
when D < 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is increased, and the oil reservoir development situation is improved; d is 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is unchanged, and the oil reservoir development situation is stable; d > 0: the comprehensive evaluation score of the oil reservoir is reduced, and the oil reservoir development situation is deteriorated.
4. The dynamic early warning method for reservoir development according to claim 1, wherein the natural decreasing rate of the target reservoir in step 6 indicates a natural changing rate or decreasing rate of oil and gas production in the old well per unit time after the increased production of various stimulation measures is removed, the unit is percentage, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, Dt is from-natural rate of decrease (%);
a, oil production (ton) of the old well in the same period of the year;
b, the accumulated oil production (ton) of the old well in 1-n months in the current year;
c, increasing oil quantity (ton) by 1-n month of the old well in the current year in an accumulated measure;
wherein, the old well refers to the oil well which has been put into production at the end of last 12 months in the year, and the new well refers to the oil well which is put into production in the current year.
5. The dynamic early warning method for reservoir development according to claim 1, wherein the absolute value of the water cut increase rate of the target reservoir in the step 7 is the water cut increase percentage of 1% of geological reserves produced, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein S represents an absolute value of a water content increase rate;
fw1-reporting end-stage integrated water content (%);
fw2-integrated water content (%) last year for 12 months;
R1-reporting the end production (%);
R2production degree (%) at 12 months in the last year.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the reservoir types include medium high-low permeability reservoirs, ultra low-ultra low permeability reservoirs, and tight oil.
7. The dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that red early warning is the graded reduction of development level, and the development index exceeds 2 times of the average value of similar oil reservoirs; the orange early warning is that the development level is maintained at the original level or degraded in a grading manner, the development index exceeds the average value of the similar oil reservoirs by less than 1.5-2 times, the yellow early warning is that the development level is maintained at the original level or degraded in a grading manner, and the development index exceeds the average value of the similar oil reservoirs by less than 1.0-1.5 times.
8. The dynamic early warning method for oil reservoir development according to claim 7, characterized in that the early warning level of an oil reservoir with annual oil production of more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons is comprehensively judged by utilizing three indexes of comprehensive score change amplitude, natural decrement rate and absolute value of water content rise rate, the early warning is the level when any one of the three indexes is met, and the early warning level of the oil reservoir with the oil reservoir scale of 2 ten thousand tons or less and less than 5 ten thousand tons is judged by only adopting one index of the comprehensive score change amplitude; when the target oil reservoir keeps an early warning level for two years, the early warning level of the oil reservoir is increased by one level;
the early warning machine when the oil reservoir type is a medium-high low permeability oil reservoir is as follows: the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score amplitude is more than 25 percent, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 25 percent, or the water content rise rate absolute value is more than or equal to 8, the early warning is carried out in red; when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 25 percent by 20 percent, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 20 percent by 25 percent or 8 is more than the absolute value of the water content increase rate is more than or equal to 6, the orange early warning is given, and when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 20 percent, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 15 percent by 20 percent or 6 is more than the absolute value of the water content increase rate is more than or equal to 4, the yellow early warning;
when the annual oil production is less than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and the oil reservoir scale is less than 10 ten thousand tons, the early warning is red when the natural descending absolute value of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 25 percent or the absolute value of the water content ascending rate is more than or equal to 8, the early warning is orange when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 30 percent and the natural descending absolute value is 20 to 25 percent or 8 is more than or equal to 6, and the early warning is yellow when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 30 percent and the natural descending absolute value is 15 to 20 percent or 6 is more than or equal to 4; when the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 2 ten thousand tons and less than 5 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 45 percent, the red early warning is carried out, when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 45 percent, the orange early warning is carried out, and when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is less than or equal to 30 percent, the yellow early warning is carried out;
the ultra-low-ultra-low permeability oil reservoir development early warning mechanism is as follows: the method is characterized in that the early warning is red when the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 20%, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 20% or the absolute value of the water content increase rate is more than or equal to 10, orange early warning is realized when the change range of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 20%, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 16% when the change range of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 20% and 20% or the water content increase rate absolute value is more than or equal to 10% and more than 7, and yellow early warning is realized when the change range of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or;
when the scale of the oil reservoir is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the early warning is red when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 30 percent, the natural degressive absolute value is more than or equal to 20 percent or the absolute value of the water content increasing rate is more than or equal to 10 percent, the early warning is orange when the change range of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 20 percent, the natural degressive absolute value is more than or equal to 16 percent or the absolute value of the water content increasing rate is more than or equal to 10 percent, and the early warning is yellow when the change range of the; 2 ten thousand tons or more of oil reservoir scale is less than 5 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 40 percent, the early warning is red, the early warning is orange when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 40 percent when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is less than or equal to 30 percent when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is 20 percent, the early warning is yellow when the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 12 percent or 7 percent or the water content rise rate absolute value is more than or equal to 4 when the change;
the early warning mechanism for the development of the compact oil is as follows: the scale of the oil reservoir is more than or equal to 10 ten thousand tons, the red early warning is carried out when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 15 percent, the natural decreasing absolute value is more than or equal to 30 percent or the absolute value of the water content increasing rate is more than or equal to 8 percent, the orange early warning is carried out when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 8 percent, the natural decreasing absolute value is more than or equal to 30 percent or 8 is more than or equal to 6, the yellow early warning is carried out when the variation amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 8 percent, the natural decreasing absolute value is more than 25 percent or more than 6 is more than or equal to 4;
when the scale of the oil reservoir is more than or equal to 5 ten thousand tons and less than 10 ten thousand tons, the early warning is red when the comprehensive evaluation score is more than 20 percent, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 30 percent or the absolute value of the water content rise rate is more than or equal to 8, the early warning is orange when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 15 percent, the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 25 percent or 8 is more than or equal to 6, and the early warning is yellow when the change amplitude of the comprehensive evaluation score is more than or equal to 15 percent, the change amplitude of the natural decrement absolute value is more than or equal to 25 percent or 6 is more than or; and when the oil reservoir scale is more than or equal to 2 ten thousand tons and less than 5 ten thousand tons, the comprehensive evaluation score is larger than 40 percent, the red early warning is carried out, when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is more than 25 percent and less than or equal to 40 percent, the orange early warning is carried out, and when the comprehensive evaluation score change amplitude is more than 15 percent and less than or equal to 25 percent, the yellow early warning is carried out.
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