CN111027869A - Rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of reliability analysis, and discloses a method for analyzing the reliability of a rail transit product based on safety consideration. The method comprises the following steps: s1, according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product, comprehensively obtaining a reliability definition and a range related to safety; s2, analyzing a product system, and determining product composition, functions and task profiles; s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product; s4, according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the previous application data of the parts, a reliability prediction method and a statistical method are adopted to evaluate and analyze the safety and reliability of the system; s5, analyzing the importance of the failure probability of the parts according to the reliability comprehensive model of S3 to obtain sensitivity data of the parts on the influence of the whole safety reliability of the product; and S6, making appropriate and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result. The safety and reliability of the system are calculated and verified through the mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model, and the safety and reliability of the product are ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of reliability analysis, in particular to a rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration.
Background
For the civil product market, customers usually have less strict requirements on small fault indexes, but pay attention to the characteristics related to influencing the use and maintenance safety of products, in the traditional reliability analysis, qualitative analysis methods (such as fault tree analysis, fault modes, influence analysis and the like) are focused on rough analysis and prevention of risks, quantitative analysis methods (namely probability analysis methods) (such as an accurate analysis method, a Monte Carlo simulation method, a first second order moment method, a second third order moment method and the like) are focused on data calculation and have larger calculation workload, and both analysis methods lack pertinence, comprehensiveness and accurate analysis on safety-related reliability items, so that the significance of reliability analysis results is limited, and the doubts of the customers on the safety of the products cannot be eliminated fundamentally.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention solves the technical problem of overcoming the defects of the prior art and provides a rail transit product reliability analysis method which is based on safety consideration and can carry out pertinence, comprehensiveness and accuracy analysis on reliability points related to safety.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration comprises the following steps:
s1, according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product, comprehensively obtaining a reliability definition and a range related to safety;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product to determine the composition, function and task profile of the product;
s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety and reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the previous application data/test data/simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing the importance of the failure probability of the parts according to the reliability comprehensive model in the S3 to obtain sensitivity data of the influence of the parts on the overall safety and reliability of the product;
and S6, making appropriate and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result.
Further, the safety and reliability comprehensive model is obtained by integrating the safety model and the reliability model.
Further, the process of evaluating the system security and reliability in S4 is: firstly, estimating the fault rates lambda of the rest parts in the comprehensive model by adopting an expert evaluation method through the parts with known fault rates in the safety and reliability comprehensive model; secondly, analyzing and calculating the reliability of each part of the product at the time t by adopting minitab software according to the fault data of each part of the product; converting the series/parallel relation in the safety and reliability comprehensive model into a reliability mathematical model, and comprehensively obtaining the mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model; finally, calculating the system safety reliability, and comparing the system safety reliability with the required system safety reliability;
the reliability mathematical model mainly has a series relation and a parallel relation, and the mathematical model of the series relation is Rt＝R1×R2×......×RNThe mathematical model of the parallel relation is Rt＝1-(1-R1)(1-R2)......(1-RN) Where t is the required security service duration, R1、R2......RNAnd integrating the reliability of each part of the safety reliability comprehensive model in S3.
Still further, the importance analysis of the failure probability of the component in S5 is performed according to the following formula:
Ii c＝(Fi/Fs)×d Fs/d Fi
wherein, Ii cFor safety and reliability integrationImportance of failure probability of ith component in model, FiFor the failure probability of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model, FsThe failure rate calculation formula of the parallel model is F for the system safety failure probabilitys＝F1×F2×......×FN(ii) a The series model failure rate calculation formula is Fs＝F1+F2+......+FN。
Comparing the failure probability importance I of each parti cAnd finding out parts which have great influence on the whole safety failure of the product.
And further, combining the parts which are obtained in the step S5 and have large influence on the overall safety failure of the product, selecting corresponding parts with higher quality grade in the step S6, and verifying the safety reliability of the improved system according to the safety and reliability comprehensive model until the required safety and reliability of the system are achieved.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the safety requirements of the product are subdivided into quantitative and qualitative safety requirements, a safety and reliability comprehensive model is obtained by integrating a safety model and a reliability model to serve as failure guidance, the safety and reliability of the system are calculated, analyzed and verified through a relevant reliability mathematical model, appropriate and effective improvement measures are finally determined, the effectiveness of safety and reliability analysis of the product is ensured, and the safety and reliability of the product are really realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a reliability model established in example 1;
FIG. 2 is a safety model established in example 1;
fig. 3 is a safety and reliability comprehensive model established in example 1.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be further described with reference to the following detailed description, wherein the drawings are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be limiting; to better illustrate the embodiments of the present invention, some parts of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of an actual product; it will be understood by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted.
Example 1
The rail transit product reliability analysis method based on the safety consideration is provided, and comprises the following steps:
s1, according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product, comprehensively obtaining a safety-related reliability definition and range, wherein the safety requirement comprises safety quantitative and qualitative requirements, such as safety probability, catastrophic failure rate and environment pollution not exceeding several levels, personnel injury not exceeding several levels of disability, environmental pollution not caused, locomotive parking not caused and the like;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product to determine the composition, function and task profile of the product;
s3, establishing a safety model and a reliability model of the product according to the composition, the function and the task profile of the product, and establishing a safety and reliability comprehensive model;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety and reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the previous application data/test data/simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing the importance of the failure probability of the parts according to the safety and reliability comprehensive model in the S3 to obtain sensitivity data of the influence of the parts on the overall safety and reliability of the product;
and S6, making appropriate and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result.
In order to further embody the reliability analysis method, the detailed description is specifically given by taking an urban rail vehicle equipment cabin as an example, the urban rail vehicle equipment cabin mainly comprises a skirt board module, a bottom plate module and a framework module, and the three modules jointly form an equipment cabin body, maintain the overall connectivity of the cabin body and protect internal equipment of the cabin body. The apron board module comprises an apron board welding body, an apron board body at an inspection hole, safety locks (3 handles) and safety lifting ropes (1 strip); the bottom plate module comprises bottom plate bodies (1), bolts (2) and anti-falling pins (1); the framework module comprises framework bodies (1) and bolts (countless). When large objects (namely the bottom plate body and the skirt plate body at the access hole) on the equipment compartment fall off, the operation safety of the urban rail vehicle is seriously threatened, and thus the safety type faults of the urban rail vehicle are caused.
First, the reliability definition and range related to safety determined by integrating the safety requirement and reliability requirement of the product are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 RELATED TO SAFETY RELIABILITY DEFINITIONS AND RANGE-DETERMINATION TABLE
According to the composition, the function and the task profile of the equipment cabin, the following reliability model and safety model are established:
1) the reliability model is shown in figure 1;
2) the security model is shown in figure 2.
The reliability model and the safety model of fig. 1 and fig. 2 are combined to build a safety and reliability comprehensive model as shown in fig. 3.
The comprehensive model of safety and reliability of the embodiment synthesizes the parallel relation and the series relation, then carries out the evaluation of the safety and reliability of the system, selects the safety locks with abundant application data as the known fault rate parts (the fault rate is 10000E)-9) And evaluating failure rates influencing system safety by adopting an expert evaluation method to obtain that the failure rates (lambda) of a lifting rope (disconnected), a bolt (completely loosened) and an anti-drop pin (disconnected) are respectively 600E-9、 4800E-9、12000E-9(ii) a Analyzing and calculating the reliability of the lifting rope, the bolt and the anti-drop pin at the time t which is 20000 by adopting minitab software; then, according to the comprehensive model of the safety and reliability of the upper graph, the system safety and reliability R is calculated when t is 2000020000＝RSkirt board body×RBottom plate body＝[1-(1-RLock with a locking mechanism)3(1-RLifting rope)]×[1-(1-RBolt)2(1-RAnti-drop pin)]0.9981, the customer's requirements of not less than 99.9% are temporarily not met.
And then, analyzing the importance of the failure probability of the parts according to the safety and reliability comprehensive model, and specifically calculating by adopting the following formula:
Fsecurity＝FLock with a locking mechanism 3×FLifting rope+FBolt 2×FAnti-drop pin
According to formula Ii c＝(Fi/Fs)×dFs/dFiRespectively obtaining the importance of the failure probability of the lock, the lifting rope, the bolt and the anti-drop pin:
comparing the results of the derivation, see ILock with a locking mechanism>ILifting ropeSimilarly, find IBoltAnd IAnti-drop pinThen known as IBolt>IAnti-drop pinAnd sequencing the four derivation results to obtain that the failure rate of the safety lock and the bolt has larger influence on the overall safety failure of the equipment compartment than the lifting rope and the anti-drop pin, so that the reliability of the safety lock and the bolt is improved to have larger improvement effect on the overall safety reliability of the equipment compartment than the lifting rope and the anti-drop pin, namely the sensitivity data in S5.
According to the sensitivity analysis result, selecting a safety lock and a bolt with higher quality grade, and continuing to use the formula R after selection20000＝RSkirt board body×RBottom plate body＝[1-(1-RLock with a locking mechanism)3(1-RLifting rope)]×[1-(1-RBolt)2(1-RAnti-drop pin)]Verification is carried out until the selected safety lock and bolt can enable R20000The safety requirement of the equipment cabin can be met when the safety requirement is more than or equal to 0.999.
According to the method, the comprehensive model of the safety and reliability is obtained through the comprehensive reliability model and the safety model, the safety and reliability of the product are evaluated and analyzed by using the reliability prediction method, then the importance degree of the failure probability of the parts is analyzed, the influence degree of the reliability of each part of the product on the overall safety and reliability of the product is analyzed, and design improvement measures are made according to the influence degree, so that the efficiency, effectiveness and pertinence of the reliability analysis are improved.
It should be understood that the above examples are only for clearly illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, according to the safety requirement and the reliability requirement of a product, comprehensively obtaining a reliability definition and a range related to safety;
s2, performing system analysis on the selected product to determine the composition, function and task profile of the product;
s3, establishing a safety model, a reliability model and a safety and reliability comprehensive model of the product;
s4, evaluating and analyzing the safety and reliability of the system by adopting a reliability prediction method and a statistical method according to the basic structure/composition of the product and the previous application data/test data/simulation data of the parts of the product;
s5, analyzing the importance of the failure probability of the parts according to the reliability comprehensive model in the S3 to obtain sensitivity data of the influence of the parts on the overall safety and reliability of the product;
and S6, making appropriate and effective improvement measures according to the sensitivity analysis result.
2. The rail transit product reliability analysis method based on the safety consideration as claimed in claim 1, wherein the safety reliability comprehensive model is obtained by integrating a safety model and a reliability model.
3. The rail transit product reliability analysis method based on the safety consideration as claimed in claim 2, wherein the system safety reliability assessment process performed in S4 is as follows: firstly, estimating the fault rates lambda of the rest parts in the comprehensive model by adopting an expert evaluation method through the parts with known fault rates in the safety and reliability comprehensive model; secondly, analyzing and calculating the reliability of each part of the product at the time t by adopting minitab software according to the fault data of each part of the product; converting the series/parallel relation in the safety and reliability comprehensive model into a reliability mathematical model, and comprehensively obtaining the mathematical model of the safety and reliability comprehensive model; finally, calculating the system safety reliability, and comparing the system safety reliability with the required system safety reliability;
the reliability mathematical model has a series relation and a parallel relation, and the mathematical model of the series relation is Rt＝R1×R2×......×RN(ii) a The mathematical model of the parallel relation is Rt＝1-(1-R1)(1-R2)......(1-RN) Where t is the required security service duration, R1、R2......RNAnd integrating the reliability of each part of the safety reliability comprehensive model in S3.
4. The rail transit product reliability analysis method based on the safety consideration as claimed in claim 3, wherein the importance degree analysis of the failure probability of the parts in S5 is performed according to the following formula: i isi c＝(Fi/Fs)×dFs/dFiIn the formula Ii cImportance of failure probability for the ith part in the model of safety and reliabilityiFor the failure probability of the ith part in the safety and reliability comprehensive model, FsThe probability of system security failure;
the failure rate calculation formula of the parallel model is Fs＝F1×F2×......×FN(ii) a The series model failure rate calculation formula is Fs＝F1+F2+......+FN。
Comparing the failure probability importance I of each parti cAnd finding out parts which have great influence on the whole safety failure of the product.
5. The rail transit product reliability analysis method based on the safety consideration as claimed in claim 4, wherein, in combination with the parts which are obtained in S5 and have a large influence on the overall safety failure of the product, the corresponding parts with higher quality grade are selected in S6, and the safety reliability of the improved system is verified according to the safety reliability comprehensive model until the required system safety reliability is achieved.
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