CN111009125A - Urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method - Google Patents

Urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method Download PDF

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CN111009125A
CN111009125A CN201911303800.XA CN201911303800A CN111009125A CN 111009125 A CN111009125 A CN 111009125A CN 201911303800 A CN201911303800 A CN 201911303800A CN 111009125 A CN111009125 A CN 111009125A
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CN111009125B (en
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吕伟
胡庆彪
蒋翠玲
毛盾
姜雅娟
汪京辉
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Wuhan University of Technology WUT
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    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
    • G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
    • G08G1/0137—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions for specific applications
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    • G08—SIGNALLING
    • G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating the collision probability of pedestrians and vehicles at an urban intersection, which comprises the steps of firstly collecting intersection information, then calculating the equivalent traffic density, calculating the number of arriving vehicles, and calculating the probability that an adventure pedestrian crosses the intersection and falls into an accident possible area; then judging whether an obstacle influences the sight of the traffic participants at the intersection, if the obstacle exists, calculating an influence factor under the condition of the obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area, and finally calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles; and calculating the influence factors without calculation and without influence of obstacles, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area, and finally calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles. The method can evaluate the current safety situation of the intersection and provide decision basis for intersection improvement and management.

Description

Urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic safety, and relates to a method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an intersection, in particular to the collision probability of people and vehicles at a certain specific speed, wherein the collision probability of people and vehicles at the intersection under the influence of obstacles is influenced.
Background
In recent years, as the problem of traffic safety is paid enough attention, the level of road traffic safety in China is continuously improved, but the road traffic safety is still not optimistic. According to the world health organization, the 10 ten thousand population mortality rate of the road traffic accidents in China in 2016 is estimated to be 18.2, and the data of the United states, Japan and Singapore in the same year are 12.4, 4.1 and 2.8 respectively. The huge gap indicates that the road traffic safety level in China has a certain distance from the developed countries. And the intersection is considered as a high frequency area where a traffic accident occurs. According to the 2017 statistical data of the department of transportation in the Ministry of public Security, 1.4 thousands of traffic accidents of motor vehicles and pedestrians occur on the zebra crossing in 2015 + 2017 nationwide, and 3898 people die. If a scientific intersection human-vehicle collision probability calculation method is available for measuring the intersection safety degree, the method has important significance for reducing the intersection human-vehicle collision traffic accidents.
The reasons for collision of motor vehicles and pedestrians at the urban intersection include the following aspects that pedestrians neglect traffic safety and have low safety awareness so as to run red light in violation of traffic rules; the traffic disorder condition occurs when the signal lamp of the intersection is damaged; the motor vehicle driver at the intersection can drive too fast, or can not find the pedestrian due to the visual reason, and can not stop in time to give way to the pedestrian; for construction convenience, traffic jam is carried out at the intersection, so that dangerous cases cannot be found by both parties participating in traffic in time; the rainy and snowy weather affects the road surface, so that the wet and slippery parking distance of the road is increased. The calculation of the collision probability of people and vehicles at the intersection based on various factors can provide a basis for the safety evaluation of the intersection. And providing reference for relevant department decision. Potential safety hazards existing at the intersection are found, and suggestions are provided for improving the traffic condition of the intersection. The method makes a contribution to reducing the death rate of traffic accidents and reducing the death rate of 10 ten thousand population of road traffic accidents in China and developed countries. Meanwhile, the improvement of the traffic condition is also an important measure for guaranteeing the safety of people going out, and the important guarantee for realizing the happiness of people is realized.
In order to improve the current situation of traffic safety at intersections, some scholars study the interaction relationship between motor vehicles and pedestrians; the possibility and the processing method of human-vehicle conflict are also proposed by scholars based on human-vehicle interaction relation; some scholars study the probability of traffic accidents at intersections through the traffic conflict amount. Of the many studies, there are few studies relating to the probability of a pedestrian-vehicle collision at an intersection. Driver visual characteristics, pedestrians, vehicle braking distances, and friction factors are rarely considered together in a model under study. The intersection traffic accident occurrence mechanism cannot be better reflected only by considering one factor or a plurality of factors, so that the intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method considering multiple factors is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an intersection.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an urban intersection is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: collecting intersection information including green light duration, street length, lane number, number of pedestrians, number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether obstacles exist, length of obstacles and hazard-type pedestrian percentage; wherein the hazard pedestrian percentage is obtained by a statistical method;
step 2: calculating the equivalent traffic density according to the information collected in the step 1, and calculating the number of arriving vehicles according to the traffic density;
and step 3: calculating the probability of the adventure type pedestrian crossing the intersection and falling in the accident possible area according to the information collected in the step 1;
and 4, step 4: judging whether barriers influence the sight of the traffic participants at the intersection or not;
if yes, sequentially executing the step 5, the step 6 and the step 9, and ending the process;
if not, sequentially executing the step 7, the step 8 and the step 9, and ending the process;
and 5: calculating an influence factor under the condition of an obstacle according to the information collected in the step 1;
step 6: under the condition of an obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident possible area;
and 7: calculating an influence factor under the influence of no obstacles;
and 8: under the condition of no obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area;
and step 9: and calculating the collision probability of the people and the vehicle.
Preferably, the vehicle density in step 2 is:
Figure BDA0002322534710000021
wherein f isvVehicle density in speed-duration, unit: vehicle/m; n is a radical ofcNumber of motor vehicle in green time, unit: a vehicle; t is the green time duration, unit: s; v is the motor vehicle running speed, unit: m/S;
then at fvAnd calculating the number of arriving vehicles in a period of time on the basis:
Figure BDA0002322534710000031
wherein n isvIs the number of lanes, L is the street length, in units: m; rrRadius of accident, unit: m; mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, and Mot is the integral part of the calculated value plus one when the calculated value has decimal number.
Preferably, in step 3, the imbalance coefficient M is first calculated:
Figure BDA0002322534710000032
wherein, WvWidth of the motor vehicle, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; l being drivewaysWidth, unit: m;
then calculating the probability P of the pedestrian falling in the accident possible areak：
Figure BDA0002322534710000033
Wherein n is1，n2，…，nNIs the number of adventure pedestrians in a unit width, and n1+n2...+nNN; n is road width, unit: m;
Figure BDA0002322534710000034
is a permutation and combination expression.
Preferably, in step 5, the accident radius is first calculated;
Figure BDA0002322534710000035
wherein: rrRadius of accident, unit: m; v is the initial speed of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, in units: m/S; t is driver reaction time, unit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity, mu is the friction factor;
secondly, calculating the area of an accident possible region influenced by shielding on the basis of the accident radius;
Figure BDA0002322534710000036
wherein, A is the area of the accident possible area affected by shielding, and the unit is: m is2(ii) a L is street length, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; l is the width of the lane, unit: m; ldIs the length of the obstacle, in units: m;
calculating the area of the accident area on the basis of the accident radius;
Figure BDA0002322534710000037
wherein S is an accident areaArea of (d), unit: m is2；
Finally calculating an influence factor on the basis of the calculation S, A;
Figure BDA0002322534710000038
where f is the influence factor.
Preferably, in step 6, when the obstacle affects the passing, the number of the vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area is calculated firstly;
Figure BDA0002322534710000041
wherein N isvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvAdding one to the integer part of the calculated value; l is street length, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; lvIs the length of the car body, unit: m; rrRadius of accident, unit: m; ldIs the length of the obstacle, in units: m;
secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area;
Figure BDA0002322534710000042
wherein Mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, K0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure BDA0002322534710000043
is a permutation and combination expression;
finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area;
Figure BDA0002322534710000044
wherein: k is the permutation and combination of arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure BDA0002322534710000045
is a permutation and combination expression.
Preferably, in step 7, the driver's horizontal field of view is first calculated;
θ＝0.0031v2-0.9922v+88.032 (12)
where θ is the driver horizontal field of view, unit: degree; v is the motor vehicle running speed, unit: m/S;
the driver gaze distance is then calculated:
Figure BDA0002322534710000046
where ω is the driver's gaze distance, unit: m; t is driver reaction time, unit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity; μ is the friction factor;
finally, calculating an influence factor under the condition that no obstacle influences the traffic on the basis of the horizontal visual field and the watching distance of the driver;
Figure BDA0002322534710000047
wherein f is an influence factor; l is street length, unit: and m is selected.
Preferably, in step 8, the accident radius is first calculated;
Figure BDA0002322534710000048
wherein, Rr is the accident radius, unit: m; v is the initial speed of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, in units: m/s; t is driver reaction time, unit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity; μ is the friction factor;
secondly, calculating the number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area;
Figure BDA0002322534710000051
wherein N isvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvAdding one to the integer part of the calculated value; n isvThe number of lanes; lvIs the length of the car body, unit: m; l is street length, unit: m;
secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area;
Figure BDA0002322534710000052
wherein: mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles; k0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure BDA0002322534710000053
is a permutation and combination expression;
finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area;
Figure BDA0002322534710000054
wherein: k is the permutation and combination of arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure BDA0002322534710000055
is a permutation and combination expression.
Preferably, in step 9, the probability of the human-vehicle collision is:
Figure BDA0002322534710000056
wherein: p is the collision probability of the human and the vehicle, PkProbability of pedestrian in accident potential area, K0The motor vehicles in the lane in the accident possible area are arranged and combined, K is the arrangement and combination of the motor vehicles in the lane in the accident area, and f is an influence factor.
Preferably, the street length is a two-way street length average; if the road is in the south-north direction, the vehicle runs in the south-north direction, namely the average value of the length of the distance between the south direction and the adjacent intersection of the intersection and the distance between the north direction and the adjacent intersection of the intersection.
The invention discloses a method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an urban intersection, which considers road environment, people, vehicles and the like as a system, comprehensively considers the influence of visual characteristics of personnel, road environment and weather on traffic flow, and constructs a comprehensive measuring method.
Compared with the influence of a single factor on the collision probability of people and vehicles considered by a previous researcher, the dynamic visual characteristic of a driver is considered, the visual line of a traffic participant is influenced by the existence of obstacles, and the influence of rain, snow and ice on the braking of the vehicle is considered. And the number of motor vehicles, the number of pedestrians, roads and the surrounding environment are taken as an integral structure calculation model.
The method is used for evaluating the current safety situation of the intersection, calculating the occurrence probability of the pedestrian and vehicle collision traffic accident, and selecting the parameters which are simple and easy to obtain and easy to operate and implement.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to facilitate the understanding and implementation of the present invention for those of ordinary skill in the art, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, it is to be understood that the embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and explanatory of the present invention and are not restrictive thereof.
Referring to fig. 1, the method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an urban intersection provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
step 1: collecting intersection information including green light duration, street length, lane number, number of pedestrians, number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether obstacles exist, length of obstacles and hazard-type pedestrian percentage; wherein the percentage of the adventure pedestrians is obtained by a statistical method;
step 2: calculating the equivalent traffic density according to the information collected in the step 1, and calculating the number of arriving vehicles according to the traffic density;
and step 3: calculating the probability of the adventure type pedestrian crossing the intersection and falling in the accident possible area according to the information collected in the step 1;
and 4, step 4: judging whether barriers influence the sight of the traffic participants at the intersection or not;
if yes, sequentially executing the step 5, the step 6 and the step 9, and ending the process;
if not, sequentially executing the step 7, the step 8 and the step 9, and ending the process;
and 5: calculating an influence factor under the condition of an obstacle according to the information collected in the step 1;
step 6: under the condition of an obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident possible area;
and 7: calculating an influence factor under the influence of no obstacles;
and 8: under the condition of no obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area;
and step 9: and calculating the collision probability of the people and the vehicle.
The invention is further illustrated by the following two examples.
Example 1:
the method is based on calculation of the collision probability of people and vehicles at the urban intersection under the influence of obstacles, the running speed of the motor vehicles is processed according to vectors, the interval between 15 km and 55km/h is 5km, the speed unit is converted into m/s during calculation in the following embodiment, and all calculation vectors of the embodiment correspond to the running speed from 15 km/h to 55 km/h.
The method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at the urban intersection comprises the following steps:
step 1: the intersection information is collected, including the length of green light, the length of street, the number of pedestrians, the number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether there are obstacles and the length thereof, and the percentage of adventure pedestrians, and the specific information is as follows in table 1:
TABLE 1
Figure BDA0002322534710000071
Step 2: and (4) calculating the equivalent traffic density according to the information collected in the step (1), and calculating the number of arriving vehicles according to the traffic density.
First, the speed-duration vehicle density is calculated as follows according to equation 20:
Figure BDA0002322534710000072
wherein: f. ofvVehicle density in speed-duration (unit: vehicle/m), NcThe number of motor vehicle vehicles (unit: vehicle) in the green light time, t is the duration of the green light time (unit: s), and v is the driving speed of the motor vehicle (unit: m/s).
The calculation results are as follows
fv＝[0.057 0.043 0.034 0.028 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.016]。
Secondly, the number of arriving vehicles in a period of time is calculated according to the following formula (21):
Figure BDA0002322534710000073
wherein: f. ofvIs the speed-duration vehicle density (unit: vehicle/m), nvIs the number of lanes, L is the street length (unit: m), RrThe radius of the accident (unit: m), Mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, Mot is the integral part of the calculated value plus one when the calculated value is decimal.
The calculation results are as follows:
Mot＝[1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2]。
and step 3: and (4) calculating the probability of the adventure type pedestrian crossing the intersection and falling in the accident possible area according to the information collected in the step (1).
First, an imbalance coefficient M is calculated as follows according to the formula (22):
Figure BDA0002322534710000081
wherein: m is the imbalance coefficient, WvIs the width (unit: m, 2m in this example) of the motor vehicle, nvThe number of lanes is, and l is the width of the lane (unit: m, value 3m in this example).
Is calculated by
Figure BDA0002322534710000082
And finally, calculating the probability of the pedestrian falling in the accident possible area according to the formula (23) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000083
wherein: pkThe probability of the pedestrian in the accident possible area, M is an unbalanced coefficient, n1，n2，…，nNIs the number of adventure pedestrians in a unit width, and n1+n2...+nNN, N is the road width (unit: m, which is 3m in this example),
Figure BDA0002322534710000084
.. is a permutation and combination expression.
In this example, the unit width is 0.5m, and the information risk type pedestrian collected in S1 is 1 person, and is calculated
Figure BDA0002322534710000085
And 5: and (4) calculating an influence factor under the condition of an obstacle according to the information collected in the step (1).
First, the accident radius is calculated as follows according to the formula (24):
Figure BDA0002322534710000086
wherein: rrIs the accident radius (unit: m), v is the initial speed (unit: m/S) of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, and T is the driver' S inverseThe unit of time is s, the value of the example is 1.2s, and g is the gravity acceleration (generally the value is 9.8 m/s)2) Mu is a friction factor depending on the road surface and whether it is precipitation.
The calculation results are as follows:
Rr＝[6.77 9.82 13.25 17.09 21.31 25.93 30.94 36.35 42.15]。
secondly, calculating the area of the accident possible region affected by shielding on the basis of calculating the accident radius, wherein the area is specifically as follows according to a formula (25):
Figure BDA0002322534710000087
wherein: a is the area (unit: m) of the accident possible region affected by the shielding2)，RrIs the accident radius (unit: m), L is the street length (unit: m), nvIs the number of lanes, l is the width of the lane (unit: m, value 3m), l isdIs the length of the obstacle (unit: m, value 3 m).
The calculation results are as follows:
A＝[2.31 11.45 21.76 33.26 45.94 59.79 74.83 91.05 108.45]。
then, calculating the area of the accident area on the basis of the accident radius, and according to the formula (26), the area is concretely calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000091
wherein: s is the area of the accident region (unit: m)2)，nvIs the number of lanes on the road, L is the length of the street (unit: m), L is the width of the lane (unit: m, value 3m), RrIs the accident radius (unit: m).
The calculation results are as follows:
S＝[40.63 58.90 79.53 102.52 127.87 155.59 185.66 218.10 252.90]。
finally, f is calculated based on calculation S, A, as specified by equation (27):
Figure BDA0002322534710000092
wherein: f is the influence factor and S is the area of the accident region (unit: m)2) And a is an accident potential area affected by occlusion (unit: m is2)。
The calculation results are as follows:
f＝[0.057 0.194 0.274 0.324 0.359 0.384 0.403 0.418 0.429]。
step 6: and under the condition of an obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident possible area.
Firstly, when the traffic is influenced by the obstacle, the number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area is calculated according to the following formula (28):
Figure BDA0002322534710000093
wherein: n is a radical ofvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvFor which the integral part of the value is calculated plus one, L being the street length (in m), nvIs the number of lanes lvIs the length of the car body (unit: m, value 6m), ldIs the length of the barrier (unit: m, value 3m), RrIs the accident radius (unit: m).
The calculation results are as follows:
Nv＝[2 4 4 6 8 8 10 12 14]。
and secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area according to the formula (29) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000094
wherein: mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, NvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, K0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure BDA0002322534710000101
is a permutation and combination expression.
The calculation results are as follows:
K0＝[1 3 3 5 7 27 44 65 90]。
and finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area according to the formula (30) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000102
wherein: mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, NvThe number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area, K is the arrangement combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure BDA0002322534710000103
is a permutation and combination expression.
The calculation results are as follows:
K＝[2 4 4 6 8 28 45 66 91]。
and step 9: calculating the collision probability of the man and the vehicle according to the formula (31) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000104
wherein: p is the collision probability of the human and the vehicle, PkProbability of pedestrian in accident potential area, K0The motor vehicles in the lane in the accident possible area are arranged and combined, K is the arrangement and combination of the motor vehicles in the lane in the accident area, and f is an influence factor.
The results of the calculation of the driving speed (km/h) and the corresponding probability of the motor vehicle are shown in the following table 2:
TABLE 2
Figure BDA0002322534710000105
Example 2:
in the embodiment, the collision probability of people and vehicles at the urban intersection is calculated based on the influence of obstacles, the running speed of the motor vehicle is processed according to vectors, the interval between 15 km and 55km/h is 5km, and the speed unit is converted into m/s during calculation in the following embodiment. All calculation vectors correspond to the running speed from 15-55 km/h.
The method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at the urban intersection comprises the following steps:
step 1: the intersection information is collected, including the length of green light, the length of street, the number of pedestrians, the number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether there are obstacles and the length thereof, and the percentage of dangerous pedestrians, and the specific information is as follows in table 3:
TABLE 3
Figure BDA0002322534710000111
Step 2: and (4) calculating the equivalent traffic density according to the information collected in the step (1), and calculating the number of arriving vehicles according to the traffic density.
First, the speed-duration vehicle density is calculated as follows in equation (32):
Figure BDA0002322534710000112
wherein: f. ofvVehicle density in speed-duration (unit: vehicle/m), NcThe number of motor vehicle vehicles (unit: vehicle) in the green light time, t is the duration of the green light time (unit: s), and v is the driving speed of the motor vehicle (unit: m/s).
The calculation results are as follows:
fv＝[0.057 0.043 0.034 0.028 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.016]。
next, the number of arriving vehicles in a period of time is calculated as follows according to equation 33:
Figure BDA0002322534710000113
wherein: f. ofvIs the speed-duration vehicle density (unit: vehicle/m), nvIs the number of lanes, L is the street length (unit: m), RrFor the accident halfAnd (m), Mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, and Mot is the integral part of the calculated value plus one when the calculated value shows decimal.
The calculation results are as follows:
Mot＝[1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2]。
and step 3: and (4) calculating the probability of the adventure type pedestrian crossing the intersection and falling in the accident possible area according to the information collected in the step (1).
First, an imbalance coefficient M is calculated as follows according to equation (34):
Figure BDA0002322534710000114
wherein: m is the imbalance coefficient, WvIs the width (unit: m, 2m in this example) of the motor vehicle, nvThe number of lanes is, and l is the width of the lane (unit: m, value 3m in this example).
Is calculated by
Figure BDA0002322534710000121
And finally, calculating the probability of the pedestrian falling in the accident possible area according to the formula (35) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000126
wherein: pkThe probability of the pedestrian in the accident possible area, M is an unbalanced coefficient, n1，n2，…，nNIs the number of adventure pedestrians in a unit width, and n1+n2…+nNN, N is the road width (unit: m, which is 3m in this example),
Figure BDA0002322534710000122
.. is a permutation and combination expression.
In the embodiment, the unit width is 0.5m, and the information risk type pedestrian collected in the step 1 is 1 person and is calculated
Figure BDA0002322534710000123
And 7: and calculating the influence factor without the influence of obstacles.
First, the driver's horizontal field of view is calculated as follows according to equation (36):
θ＝0.0031v2-0.9922v+88.032 (36)
wherein: theta is the driver's horizontal field of view (unit: degree) and v is the vehicle speed (unit: m/s).
The calculation results are as follows:
θ＝[83.95 82.62 81.29 79.98 78.68 77.398 76.11 74.85 73.60]。
secondly, calculating the gaze distance of the driver according to the information collected in the step 1, and according to a formula (37), the following concrete steps are carried out:
Figure BDA0002322534710000124
wherein: omega is the fixation distance of the driver (unit: m), v is the running speed of the motor vehicle (unit: m/s), T is the reaction time of the driver (unit: s, 1.2 is taken), g is the gravity acceleration (generally 9.8m/s is taken)2) Mu is a friction factor depending on the road surface and whether it is precipitation.
The calculation results are as follows:
ω＝[8.16 11.78 15.90 20.50 25.57 31.12 37.13 43.62 50.58]。
and finally, calculating an influence factor on the basis of calculating the horizontal field of vision and the fixation distance of the driver, wherein the influence factor is specifically calculated according to a formula (38) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000125
wherein: f is the influence factor, L is the street length (in m), θ is the driver's horizontal field of view (in degrees), and ω is the driver's gaze distance (in m).
The calculation results are as follows:
f＝[0.0152 0.0216 0.0287 0.0364 0.0447 0.0535 0.0628 0.0726 0.0827]。
and 8: under the condition of no obstacle, the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area range are calculated.
Firstly, the accident radius is calculated according to the formula (39) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000131
wherein: rrIs the accident radius (unit: m), v is the initial speed (unit: m/s) of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, T is the driver reaction time (unit: s, in this example 1.2s), g is the gravitational acceleration (generally 9.8 m/s)2) Mu is a friction factor depending on the road surface and whether it is precipitation.
The calculation results are as follows:
Rr＝[6.77 9.82 13.25 17.09 21.31 25.93 30.94 36.35 42.15]。
then, the number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area is calculated according to the following formula (40):
Figure BDA0002322534710000132
wherein: n is a radical ofvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvFor which the integral part of the value is calculated plus one, L being the street length (in m), nvIs the number of lanes lvIs the length (unit: m) of the car body, RrIs the radius of the accident (unit: m), ldIs the length of the obstacle (unit: m).
The calculation results are as follows:
Nv＝[4 4 6 6 8 10 12 14 16]。
secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area according to the formula (41) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000133
wherein: mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, NvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, K0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure BDA0002322534710000134
is a permutation and combination expression.
The calculation results are as follows:
K0＝[2 2 4 4 6 43 64 89 118]。
and finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area according to the formula (42) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000135
wherein: mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, NvThe number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area, K is the arrangement combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure BDA0002322534710000141
is a permutation and combination expression.
The calculation results are as follows:
K＝[4 4 6 6 8 45 66 91 120]。
and step 9: calculating the collision probability of the man and the vehicle according to the formula (43) as follows:
Figure BDA0002322534710000142
wherein: p is the collision probability of the human and the vehicle, PkProbability of pedestrian in accident potential area, K0The motor vehicles in the lane in the accident possible area are arranged and combined, K is the arrangement and combination of the motor vehicles in the lane in the accident area, and f is an influence factor.
The results of the calculation of the driving speed (km/h) and the corresponding probability of the motor vehicle are shown in the following table 4:
TABLE 4
Figure BDA0002322534710000143
The method is mainly based on the idea of permutation and combination, and according to the probability of the adventure-type pedestrian falling in the accident possible area, the permutation and combination ratio of the road vehicle in the accident area and the accident possible area, and the influence factor, the calculation model of the pedestrian and vehicle collision probability is obtained. The method needs to collect a large amount of data of the crossroads, including the green light time, the street length, the number of pedestrians, the number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether obstacles exist or not, and the percentage of dangerous pedestrians. And then analyzing the problems existing at the road intersection according to the constructed model and the data processing technology. The analysis result can be used for providing suggestion for urban road safety operation; suggestion suggestions are provided for road blocking during municipal construction; providing theoretical basis for road speed limit of traffic management department. The model can also be combined with the established model to carry out simulation analysis to research the optimal road working condition, such as the optimal distance between two intersections of the road, so as to provide reference for the road design.
It should be understood that the above description of the preferred embodiments is given for clarity and not for any purpose of limitation, and that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.

Claims (9)

1. A method for calculating the collision probability of people and vehicles at an urban intersection is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: collecting intersection information including green light duration, street length, lane number, number of pedestrians, number of vehicles, what kind of road surface, whether obstacles exist, length of obstacles and hazard-type pedestrian percentage; wherein the hazard pedestrian percentage is obtained by a statistical method;
step 2: calculating the equivalent traffic density according to the information collected in the step 1, and calculating the number of arriving vehicles according to the traffic density;
and step 3: calculating the probability of the adventure type pedestrian crossing the intersection and falling in the accident possible area according to the information collected in the step 1;
and 4, step 4: judging whether barriers influence the sight of the traffic participants at the intersection or not;
if yes, sequentially executing the step 5, the step 6 and the step 9, and ending the process;
if not, sequentially executing the step 7, the step 8 and the step 9, and ending the process;
and 5: calculating an influence factor under the condition of an obstacle according to the information collected in the step 1;
step 6: under the condition of an obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicle in the accident possible area;
and 7: calculating an influence factor under the influence of no obstacles;
and 8: under the condition of no obstacle, calculating the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident area range and the permutation and combination of the vehicles in the accident possible area;
and step 9: and calculating the collision probability of the people and the vehicle.
2. The urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, wherein the vehicle density in step 2 is:
Figure FDA0002322534700000011
wherein f isvVehicle density in speed-duration, unit: vehicle/m; n is a radical ofcNumber of motor vehicle in green time, unit: a vehicle; t is the green time duration, unit: s; v is the motor vehicle running speed, unit: m/S;
then at fvAnd calculating the number of arriving vehicles in a period of time on the basis:
Figure FDA0002322534700000012
wherein n isvIs the number of lanes, L is the street length, in units: m; rrRadius of accident, unit: m; mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, and Mot is the integral part of the calculated value plus one when the calculated value has decimal number.
3. The urban intersection pedestrian-vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 3, firstly, calculating an imbalance coefficient M:
Figure FDA0002322534700000021
wherein, WvWidth of the motor vehicle, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; l is the width of the lane, unit: m;
then calculating the probability P of the pedestrian falling in the accident possible areak：
Figure FDA0002322534700000022
Wherein n is1，n2，…，nNIs the number of adventure pedestrians in a unit width, and n1+n2...+nNN; n is road width, unit: m;
Figure FDA0002322534700000023
is a permutation and combination expression.
4. The urban intersection pedestrian-vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 5, firstly, calculating the accident radius;
Figure FDA0002322534700000024
wherein: rrRadius of accident, unit: m; v is the initial speed of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, in units: m/S; t is the driver reaction time, singlyBit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity, mu is the friction factor;
secondly, calculating the area of an accident possible region influenced by shielding on the basis of the accident radius;
Figure FDA0002322534700000025
wherein, A is the area of the accident possible area affected by shielding, and the unit is: m is2(ii) a L is street length, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; l is the width of the lane, unit: m; ldIs the length of the obstacle, in units: m;
calculating the area of the accident area on the basis of the accident radius;
Figure FDA0002322534700000026
wherein S is the area of the accident region, unit: m is2；
Finally calculating an influence factor on the basis of the calculation S, A;
Figure FDA0002322534700000027
where f is the influence factor.
5. The urban intersection pedestrian-vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: step 6, when the passing is influenced by obstacles, firstly, calculating the number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000031
wherein N isvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvAdding one to the integer part of the calculated value; l is street length, unit: m; n isvThe number of lanes; lvIs the length of the car body, unit: m;Rrradius of accident, unit: m; ldIs the length of the obstacle, in units: m;
secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000032
wherein Mot is the number of arriving motor vehicles, K0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure FDA0002322534700000033
is a permutation and combination expression;
finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000034
wherein: k is the permutation and combination of arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure FDA0002322534700000035
is a permutation and combination expression.
6. The urban intersection pedestrian-vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 7, firstly, the horizontal visual field of the driver is calculated;
θ＝0.0031v2-0.9922v+88.032 (12)
where θ is the driver horizontal field of view, unit: degree; v is the motor vehicle running speed, unit: m/S;
the driver gaze distance is then calculated:
Figure FDA0002322534700000036
where ω is the driver's gaze distance, unit: m; t is driver reaction time, unit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity; μ is the friction factor;
finally, calculating an influence factor under the condition that no obstacle influences the traffic on the basis of the horizontal visual field and the watching distance of the driver;
Figure FDA0002322534700000037
wherein f is an influence factor; l is street length, unit: and m is selected.
7. The urban intersection pedestrian-vehicle collision probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 8, firstly, calculating the accident radius;
Figure FDA0002322534700000038
wherein R isrRadius of accident, unit: m; v is the initial speed of the vehicle when the driver finds a pedestrian, in units: m/s; t is driver reaction time, unit: s; g is the acceleration of gravity; μ is the friction factor;
secondly, calculating the number of vehicles which can be accommodated in the accident area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000041
wherein N isvNumber of vehicles that can be accommodated in the accident area, when NvWhen the calculated value is decimal NvAdding one to the integer part of the calculated value; n isvThe number of lanes; lvIs the length of the car body, unit: m; l is street length, unit: m;
secondly, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000042
wherein: mot isNumber of motor vehicles arriving; k0When K is calculated for the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident possible area0K is less than or equal to 00The value is 1, and the value is,
Figure FDA0002322534700000043
is a permutation and combination expression;
finally, calculating the permutation and combination of the arriving vehicles in the accident area;
Figure FDA0002322534700000044
wherein: k is the permutation and combination of arriving vehicles in the accident area,
Figure FDA0002322534700000045
is a permutation and combination expression.
8. The urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: in step 9, the probability of human-vehicle collision is:
Figure FDA0002322534700000046
wherein: p is the collision probability of the human and the vehicle, PkProbability of pedestrian in accident potential area, K0The motor vehicles in the lane in the accident possible area are arranged and combined, K is the arrangement and combination of the motor vehicles in the lane in the accident area, and f is an influence factor.
9. The urban intersection pedestrian and vehicle collision probability calculation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: the street length is a two-way street length average.
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